COLLEGE GRIDIRON ACTION IS HERE!

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1 Volume 32, Issue 2 August 31-September 4, 2017 EXCLUSIVE NCAA Football Over/Under Breakdown! COLLEGE GRIDIRON ACTION IS HERE! 100% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE! Betcha Didn t Know Handicapping Article Awesome Angle & Tremendous Trends Incredible Stat of the Week Analysis on Every Lined Game Best Bets and Key Plays Full Schedule with Opening Lines GET SMART GET PLAYBOOK GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE COPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published without the prior written permission of Playbook.com. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein. VegasInsider.com

2 Marc Lawrence's BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW ONE MORE TIME IMPROVED DEFENSES A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping Improvement. No matter how it s measured it still comes out the same. That s because forward progress is always preferred. No one ever likes taking a step backward unless, of course, it s from a firing squad. One of a handicapper s main priorities is measuring a team s value. By discerning whether a team is improving or declining, we can ferret out any remaining benefits in making a case for our team. And because statistics don t lie, the measure is easier to gauge as the season wears on. The opening month of the season makes it extremely difficult to determine whether a team is ascending or descending. Without results or opponents to grade against, we are perilously shooting in the blind as we attempt to formulate any kind of reliable power rating throughout September. What we can do, however, is to look back on last year s performance and weigh it against the previous year s effort. Remembering that improvement is the operative word, we can attempt to calculate whether a team actually improved or declined on the season. Betterment can be determined in numerous manners. It can be measured either from an ATS (Against The Spread) and/or a SU (Straight-Up) aspect, or from a statistical view. When we look at a team statistically, we look to weigh offensive and defensive progress. To help guide us through the first four games of the season we will look to concentrate on teams who improved substantially on the defensive front last season. That s because if we were to PLAY ON any college football team in Game One through Four in a conference game if they improved their defense by 100 or more yards last season from the previous year we would own a nifty ATS winning mark since By putting our improved defenses up against a quality opponent that managed 5 or more wins last season (the bigger they are, the harder they fall), they climb to ATS. That s a rock-solid 67% winning angle on its own. And if our improved defensive squad managed to win 4 or more games last season, they zoom to ATS. This year finds only two FBS teams qualifying with 100-yard improved defenses, namely Indiana (who qualifies this week) and Tulsa. GO HOOSIERS! Do that to me one more time once is never enough Pass that by me one more time once just isn t enough Tell it to me one more time I can never hear enough 2017 Associated Press Poll Preseason Top 25: 1 ALABAMA 2 OHIO ST 3 FLORIDA ST 4 USC 5 CLEMSON 6 PENN ST 7 OKLAHOMA 8 WASHINGTON 9 WISCONSIN 10 OKLA ST 11 MICHIGAN 12 AUBURN 13 LSU 14 STANFORD 15 GEORGIA 22 W VIRGINIA 16 LOUISVILLE 23 TEXAS 17 FLORIDA 24 WASH ST 18 MIAMI FLA 25 TENNESSEE 19 USF 20 KANSAS ST 21 VIRGINIA TECH TRIVIA TEASER THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY This college football coach is 13-2 SU in season openers, as well as 12-3 SU in home openers, including 9-0 the last nine. Who is this week s snarly dog? For the Trivia Teaser answer, turn to page 9 AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK PLAY ON any college team in its season opener provided they are not a double-digit favorite and they lost SU as a bowl favorite of 7 or more points the previous season. Play ON: TEMPLE (9/2), MICHIGAN (9/2) MIDDLE TENNESSEE (9/2) RED-FACED BOWLERS ATS W-L Record Since 1990: 10-0 (100%) page 2

3 2-MINUTE HANDICAP Ohio St INDIANA Washington RUTGERS Utah St WISCONSIN Colorado St Colorado Kent St CLEMSON Akron PENN ST Louisville Purdue Utep OKLAHOMA W Michigan USC Byu Lsu Maryland TEXAS S Carolina NC State Michigan Florida Florida St Alabama W Virginia Va Tech Texas A&M UCLA College Football Games All results are ATS Against The Spread and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains the exclusive private property of PLAYBOOK, PLAYBOOK.COM and PLAYBOOK.CUBE, and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher. TEAMS Tennessee Ga Tech KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS Thursday, August L5 vs conf revenge 2-6 as conf RF s 23 < pts SERIES: 6-0 L6 4-1 as HD s > 14 pts Game One Friday, September as RF s > 18 pts 3-1 Game One 3-1 L4 vs Big Ten 0-4 as dogs 28 > pts 0-4 in 1st of 3 straight HG s 6-0 as dogs 21 > pts 7-2 Weekdays 4-2 Game One 1-3 L4 vs Mountain West 2-6 as non-conf HF s 28 > pts 6-1 as dogs LY 4-1 w/ non-conf revenge 3-1 Game Two SERIES: L Weekday favs 2-5 as favs 8 < pts Saturday, September as dogs 31 > pts 2-6 away vs non-conf opp 7-3 in 1st of BB HG s 1-4 home vs MAC 0-5 Game One 1-3 L4 vs Big Ten 1-3 away bef BB HG s 5-2 as non-conf favs 31 > pts 4-2 L6 vs MAC 5-0 Game One 4-1 as non-conf favs 21 > pts 6-1 as non-conf dogs 14 > pts 1-3 Game One 1-4 as non-conf dogs 35 > pts 2-8 Game One RD s SERIES: Host as non-conf HF s 35 > pts 1st game vs Pac Game One (but 3-1 L4Y) 1st game vs MAC 8-2 as non-conf favs 25 > pts 8-0 bef Utah 5-0 Game Two 5-0 as dogs > 10 pts 0-4 Game One favs 4 > pts vs Independents 1-4 as non-conf dogs 14 > pts 2-8 away bef BB HG s 6-1 as non-conf HF s 15 > pts 3-1 Game One 9-2 L11 vs ACC 5-2 as non-conf dogs 10 < pts 0-3 L3 vs SEC 1-4 neutral sites 2-6 Game One 0-3 vs non-conf revenge 3-8 as non-conf favs 7 < pts 1st game vs Big Ten (reg season) 5-1 neutral sites 1-4 neutral sites L7Y 1-5 as non-conf dogs 6-1 as non-conf favs 10 < pts 8-3 neutral sites L8Y Sunday, September Game One 2-5 as non-conf dogs 4 > pts 2-9 as non-conf favs 3 > pts 2-5 neutral sites L8Y Beat UCLA LY (-4.5) 4-13 vs revenge L4Y 7-1 L8 vs SEC 6-2 w/ non-conf revenge 2-4 Game One Monday, September neutral sites L15Y as non-conf favs < 5 pts 3-1 L4 vs SEC 0-4 Weekdays 2-8 as non-conf dogs Marc Lawrence s award-winning football selections are available all season long at: VegasINSIDER.com FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT ATS = Against The Spread A = Away Con = Conference D = Dog F = Favorite H = Home Rev = Revenge R = Road SU = Straight-Up SMART BOX 17 RETURNING STARTERS It s been said that the best thing about turning 17 is that you re no longer 16. Unlike NC-17 movies that are not rated, 17 is a winning number if you re a college football team and your team is returning 17 or more starters from last season. While 17 returning starter teams are often times talked down by naysayers, the truth of the matter is they know not what they speak as these teams are moneymakers. And when it comes to handicapping college football games that s what it s all about making money. According to the 2017 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine there will be a total of eleven teams returning 17 or more starters this season, namely: Florida Atlantic, Georgia, Kentucky, Memphis, Miami Ohio, New Mexico State, Northwestern, Syracuse, TCU, Texas, and UMass. And if last year is any indication, if would be prudent to keep this list handy throughout the 2017 season. That s because there were also a total of eleven 17 returning starter teams last season. From that group, seven of them improved their overall record from the previous campaign, three of them recorded an identical overall record and only one of them (LSU, thanks to the Les Miles fallout) finished with a worse record. On the overall ledger, last year s 17 returning starter squads improved a net total of 25.5 net SU wins combined, and 19 net ATS wins, with nine of the eleven teams eventually improving the net spread records from 2016 to UCF led the charge when the Knights managed to go from 0-12 SU and 2-9 ATS to SU and ATS, respectively. Interestingly, whenever a 17 returning starter team finds themselves taking points in a season-opening game for both teams, they ve gone 72-2 ATS in all games since That s a 60% winning angle on the blind, which bulges to 1-1 ATS against opponents that are currently not in or affiliated with a Power Five conference. This week finds New Mexico State and Florida Atlantic each in a highly receptive mood, with the Owls residing in the best spot inside this week s sagacious square. So there you have it. Harken back to when you were 17 and enjoy not only the look back but also the days ahead with this year s cast of college football s 17 returning starter teams. INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher is 30-5 SU against non-conference opponents, including 9-1 versus the SEC. Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! page 3

4 2017 COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE Remember: You Have A PLAYBOOK BEST BET Whenever Our Predicted Margin Of Victory Is 6 Or More Points In Favor Of Your Line Herman s Horns Bust Out Of The Stall, Trample Terps... Cowboys Bring Rodeo To Ames, Lasso Hawkeyes... Thursday, August 31 Ohio St over INDIANA by 13 Week Two on the college gridiron opens in Big Ten country where the lone conference clash on the entire 41-game card finds the highly-rated Buckeyes taking on an Indiana squad they have beaten 22 straight times. And with head coach Urban Meyer 14-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in season lid-lifters, this trip to Bloomington figures to be another stroll down Memorial Stadium. However, college football guru Joe Lisi host of College Football Today on the Dish Network and author of Inside the Numbers Report (available weekly this season at PLAYBOOK.com) views this as a potential mine trap for Meyer s men. Say it ain t so, Joe might be the cry in Columbus but we wholeheartedly agree. For starters, the Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS as conference road chalk of 23 or less points while the Hoosiers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as double-digit home dogs and 20-1 SU and ATS in home openers. In addition, our well-oiled machine notes: conference home dogs in Game One of the season that won 6 or more games the previous year are 12-7 ATS since On the flip side, 20-point road chalk is on a 0-6 ATS losing skein in season openers over the last five years. We also BETCHA DIDN T KNOW that Marc s article on page 2 about 100-yard improved defenses comes into play tonight. An interesting subplot: former head coach Kevin Wilson who was fired by IU last year and is now the OSU offensive coordinator keeps this from garnering Best Bet status. But the feeling here is that Meyer will be content with a win, not wanting to show much for Oklahoma the following week. Thus, we ll grab the generous points as Indiana improves to 7-0 ATS in this series matchup since MINNESOTA over Buffalo by 27 It s time to row the boat in the Land of 10,000 Lakes as dynamic head coach P.J. Fleck takes his act to Minneapolis following an unbeaten 2016 regular season in Kalamazoo. Fleck is more than familiar with the Bulls from the MAC having played them twice (blanked them 38-0 last year but lost 33-0 in 2013) during his 4-year stint with Western Michigan where he went ATS in non-conference affairs, including ATS the last six. Buffalo, meanwhile, is past the honeymoon stage with 3rd-year head coach Lance Leipold as the Bulls posted just two wins last season their lowest since Leipold may also be thinking about boating from his days at Wisconsin-Whitewater where he compiled a record, including six national titles. He does return plenty of speed and experience on defense but will need to address an offense that showed less life (16 PPG in 2016) than a White Walker. Buffie s dismal 6-13 SU record in season openers along with a 0-6 SU all-time mark against Big Ten foes should ensure a successful debut for Fleck. But we ll row gently as Minny owns only three wins by 27 or more points against lined opposition in the past 10 years. MEMPHIS over UL-Monroe by 34 With 19 wins in the past two seasons and Justin Fuente off to Blacksburg, the Tigers figured to take a step back in 2016 under first-time head coach Mike Norvell. And though his rookie campaign didn t match the 10 wins in 2014 or the nine from the following season, Norvell s eight victories were the most by a 1st-year head coach in school history. He was also the first rookie coach at UM to lead his team to a bowl game, and the first to beat a ranked foe since Now with 17 starters back including depth in the trenches on both sides of the ball and a favorable non-conference slate that features UCLA at home anything less than a 4th straight bowl appearance would be disappointing. First up is a UL-Monroe squad that, despite doubling its win total (from 2 to 4) under 1st-year head coach Matt Viator, arrives with a stop-unit that allowed just under 40 PPG in 2016 and a rush defense that ranked No. 125 in the nation last season (258 RYPG; 5.7 DYPR). An even spottier ATS log as doubledigit non-conference dogs figures to have us walking with Memphis though the Tigers soft ATS mark in season openers, including 0-5 ATS the last five keeps us somewhat grounded. Still, don t expect too close a shave for a Norvell-led squad that tallied 30 or more points on 10 occasions last season. ARIZONA ST over New Mexico St by 16 To say that ASU head coach Todd Graham s job is about as fragile as a fresh egg on a bumpy desert highway these days would be a major understatement. In fact, with Washington, Utah and USC dotting the October calendar, there s probably a better chance of seeing Kathy Griffin donning a Trump mask than Graham in Sun Devils garb on Halloween. After tallying 28 wins and two bowl victories in his first three years in Tempe, the veteran head coach has just 11 wins and no bowl appearances to show for his last two seasons. Hey, you know things are going bad when both Youngstown State and West Georgia each had more players drafted (2) than you did (1). Graham is hoping that new DC Phil Bennett can help a pass defense (and save his hide) that ranked dead last in the land each of the past two seasons. Like Graham, NMSU head coach Doug Martin is also on the proverbial hot seat. Ten total wins in four seasons certainly hasn t made him a fan favorite in Las Cruces and an expiring contract will likely find him in the unemployment line instead of on the sideline. A bevy of returning experience combined with a big influx of JUCO talent should help in the long run while a word from our initial college SMART BOX tells us there s really only one way to look tonight. You know what to do. UCF over Florida International by 8 The Knights were the darlings of FBS last year when they rebounded from 0 wins in 2016 to a 6-win bowl appearance last year, including a shellacking of the Panthers at FIU. However, despite a youthful team loaded with experience, it will be tough for UCF head coach Scott Frost to mirror that sort of success in Hence, we ll likely have them on our fade list most of this season, starting today. Meanwhile, the other half of the new celebrity coach tandem in south Florida finds former UM head mentor Butch Davis back roaming the sidelines in Miami. The 65-year old Davis welcomes 15 starters from last year s 4-win squad, including 9 on defense. The good news is that the FIU campus is located within 40 miles of 15 south Florida high schools that have produced state champions (let the recruiting wars begin). SR QB Alex McGough leads a deeply experienced team that ranks No. 1 in the nation in SB Nation s metrics, one that returns 85% production on both sides of the ball. Yes, Davis is a happy camper these days. FYI: our well-oiled machine cements our FIU call with this beauty: Game One non-conference double-digit home favorites with a conference game on deck are ATS since 1980 when facing an avenging foe. OKLAHOMA ST over Tulsa by 24 In case you burned out your retinas in the recent eclipse and can t read anymore, this all-oklahoma matchup has been moved from Saturday to tonight at 7:30 ET on FS1. Regardless, someone had better get the backup generator ready as the scoreboard operator is likely going to need it. Tulsa s high octane offense fired on all cylinders under HC Phil Montgomery (remember that name) in 2016 when it became the first team in FBS history to have a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard rushers, and two 1,000-yard WRs in the same season. Meanwhile, the other half of this loaded potato features college football s best offense, Oklahoma State, led by Heisman Trophy nominees QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington. Along with RB Justice Hill the Cowboys were one of only two teams last season (Clemson the other) to feature a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher, and a 1,000-yard wide receiever and they re all back for more in Yikes! While we realize the Golden Hurricane have scored 30-plus points in each of their last 11 games, an unfortunate 1-20 SU and 5-16 ATS mark against Big 12 foes doesn t bode well for them here. Neither does the fact that they ve allowed an average 45.5 PPG in those 21 games. OSU has owned the series of late on this field, going 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS home, and head coach Mike Gundy currently stands 12-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in home openers. Toss in Gundy s 26-2 SU and 12-6 ATS mark at home against non-conference foes and we ll saddle up with the Cowboys tonight. page 4

5 Friday, September 1 EASTERN MICHIGAN over Charlotte by 10 The Eagles have landed a winning season, that is. Like Apollo 11, this should certainly make front page news considering it s the EMUs first winning campaign since However, the bigger headline may be tonight s spread. How do you ask a team that s been favored just 19 times since the turn of the century to lay over two touchdowns? You don t! Not when said team hasn t laid doubles since the 2000 season, and is ATS when spotting 3 or more points (not to mention SU and 3-8 ATS in season openers). Sure, the Eagles topped the 49ers, 37-19, in Charlotte for a rare double-digit FBS victory but unlike Neil Armstrong, we re not about to take one giant leap tonight in Ypsilanti. Remember, this same Charlotte club won two games last season in SU fashion as double-digit road dogs (at FAU, at Southern Miss) and topped Marshall in Huntington as 8-point pups. The 49ers have lost 22 seniors from their initial venture into FBS waters (2013) but a promising core of sophomores and juniors return for veteran coach Brad Lambert. Thus, we ll take one small step thanks to a mighty big spread with the revenge-minded visitors. Washington over RUTGERS by 28 It s not often you find a Top 10 team willing to travel over 2,800 miles in its season opener. Then again, the Japanese little leaguers traveled over twice that to beat up on the U.S. kids (can a Trump ban be far behind?). These days, we expect there must be more than a few teams willing to travel to the Banks of the Old Raritan as Rutgers is on a steep and rapid decline. Last season alone they were dismantled by 30.5 PPG and 230 YPG in their nine Big Ten battles thanks to an attack that ranked LAST in the nation in total offense. A 4-1 ATS log as non-conference home dogs looks tempting but a 0-4 ATS mark as dogs of 28 or more points and another 0-4 ATS record in the 1st of three straight homers won t have us banking on this bunch. However, we re not all that interested in riding the Seattle sled dogs during this cross-country iditarod. We understand Chris Petersen can coach. His wins per season (trails only Urban Meyer and Jimbo Fisher) can attest to that. And he brings with him an experienced bunch (only 17.5% of all starts by the Huskies last year were made by seniors) led by All-Pac 12 performers QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin. U-Dub even arrives with some impressive numbers: 6-0 ATS as road favorites of 18 or more points and 6-0 ATS in weekday play. However, it s safe to say we re not advocates of 30-point road chalk just 1-3 ATS in seasonopening games since Nor are we fond of that same 0-6 ATS trend that stalked Ohio State in its opener. Thus, it s probably best to sit this one out. 3 BEST BET FLA ATLANTIC over Navy by 1 Celebrated head coach Lane Kiffin makes his FAU debut, welcoming back 17 starters from last year s 3-9 squad. Aside from qualifying in the best of this week s SMART BOX (see page 3), the Owls benefit from having played 16 true freshmen (the most in the nation) two years ago. As a result, Kiffin inherits a crew that played 68 underclassmen last year, including RB Devin Motor Singletary, who rushed for 738 yards and 10 TDs during the final four games of the season. And if Lane s 77-year old daddy, Monte, decides that the nightlife at Boca del Vista isn t for him, maybe he can help a defense that was shredded for 40 points and 514 yards per game last season. They ll need it against a Middies group that produced 38 PPG and nine wins in 2016 while going toe-to-toe with nine FBS foes that won eight or more games. However, head coach Ken Niumatalolo, must replace half of those starters, including three linemen on each side of the ball. He must also buck a SU and ATS record in lined season openers, including 0-4 ATS as favorites of 9 or more points, as well as a 6-11 ATS mark as chalk of 12 or more points under his command. Not to mention a raucous crowd and, more importantly, THE CLINCHER: Kiffin is 5-0 ATS in his college head coaching career as a double-digit underdog. WISCONSIN over Utah St by 24 It looks like the Aggies may have gone back to the Wells too often. After tallying 19 wins in his first two years in Logan, HC Matt Wells has led Utah State to just nine victories in the past two seasons, including three in 2016 their lowest total since The real head scratcher is that over 50% of USU s starts last season were made by now departed seniors who were with Wells from the beginning, including six of whom were all-conference performers. The good news is that last year s leading QB, RB and WR all return. Plus the fact that 20 players made their first start and got ample playing time as the lost season progressed. A 6-0 ATS mark as dogs of 21 or more points and a 7-2 ATS weekday log are intriguing numbers. But maybe not to a big, bad Badger bunch that has 10 or more wins in six of the past eight seasons and 15 consecutive bowl appearances (most in the Big Ten). However, through it all, Wisky is just 1-3 ATS of late versus the Mountain West, 2-6 ATS in lined openers and 2-6 ATS as non-conference home favorites of 28 or more points. The bottom line: the visiting dog is hungry while the happy host is fat. Do we dare say, All s Well that Your call. NO ILLINOIS over Boston College by 3 In Chinese philosophy, yin and yang describe how opposite forces may actually be complementary and interdependent to each other. Tell that to the Boston College defense! As good as BC s stop-unit has been, ranking in the Top 10 in the land each of the past two seasons, the offense has been deplorable, averaging less than 300 yards per game over the same stretch. Thus, it could be bad news that nine starters return to that side of the ball. More importantly, the defense may even get stingier as star linemen Harold Landry (16.5 sacks) a 2016 Second Team AP All-American selection decided to forgo the NFL draft. And though defense wins games (how else could BC have posted a 7-6 record last year), an attack that is less offensive than a Sunday morning sermon makes it extremely difficult to lay points on the road, especially against a host that is on a mission. After averaging nearly 11 wins per season the previous six campaigns, the Huskies won only five contests in 2016, making them a certified Playbook Mission team in Four of those wins came in the last five games, so NIU s 14 returning starters should be eager to pick up where they left off. A 14-3 SU record in home openers since 2000 bodes well for Rod Carey s crew, as does a ATS all-time mark against ACC opposition. With that, look for the Eagles to fall to ATS in season lid-lifters. A must take. Colorado St over Colorado by 3 Sharp money has already come in on the potent Rams as the opening line has dropped a full 3 points. QB Nick Stevens (who led the nation is passing efficiency after regaining his starting job) and the 3-headed rushing attack of Dalyn Dawkins, Izzy Matthews and Marvin Kinsey Jr. picked up where they left off last season as all three backs scored in the Rams opening week rout of Oregon State. This is the same backfield that combined for 2,199 rushing yards last season while helping lead an attack that averaged almost 48 PPG over the final six games of the season. And with nine starters back on defense, you can color this Colorado State squad dangerous. And we will! The line move (now below a TD) along with the fact that teams in Game Two of the season are a surprising ATS since 1980 when facing foes making their season debut keeps this from Best Bet status but a season-worst 44-7 loss in this venue (Mile High) in last year s opener sets the table for revenge. State s 6-1 ATS mark as dogs last season along with a 4-1 ATS log with non-conference revenge provides additional fodder against a foe that is just ATS in this series as favorites and 1-4 ATS as weekday chalk. And remember this: the man who led the Buffs to their first winning campaign since 2005, QB Sego Liufau, is gone along with DC Jim Leavitt and eight starters from a defense that improved 76 YPG. That makes points optional as payback is in order. Saturday, September 2 MICHIGAN ST over Bowling Green by 20 The hunted has now become the hunter. For the first time in Mark Dantonio s illustrious 10-year career on the East Lansing sidelines, Sparty was home for the holidays last season. Dantonio is now seeking revenge against the likes of Indiana and Maryland teams that normally suck worse than a 40-year old Hoover vacuum cleaner. Incredibly, over 50% of MSU s starts were made by seniors, most of whom were around for the 36 combined wins over the previous three seasons. In addition, an off-the-field sex-assault scandal has ripped through the program making it difficult to back this mission team that is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games against MAC opposition until the problem is ironed out. That s not to say we want any part of the BeeGees. The Mike Jinks era at Bowling Green got off to a rough start last season as the Falcons win total declined by six games. In fact, only lowly Kansas (and Arby s) had more turnovers than the bumbling Birds. However, BGSU was only one of 20 teams to conclude the season on a winning streak of at least three games, rushing for 984 yards in the process. Look for the Falcons to continue the pound-and-ground route in hopes of controlling the clock and winning the yardage battle (they are 36-3 SU in games in which they outyard a foe; 4-22 SU when they don t) but we just don t expect too many high Jinks against a determined Sparty squad page 5

6 UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET Wyoming over IOWA by 3 If you read our 2017 Playbook Football Preview Guide magazine, then you know we re on the Cowboys like a mullet on a redneck. Craig Bohl s Boys started the most underclassmen in the nation last season (56.2%) and for the first time in his four seasons in Laramie, Bohl welcomes back a starting quarterback. Josh Allen led the MWC in passing TDs (28) last season and many feel he could be the top pick in this year s NFL draft. Bohl is also reunited with Scottie Hazelton, his defensive coordinator at North Dakota State where together they won the FCS championship. As for the Hawkeyes, they arrive without star QB C.J. Beathard (drafted in the 3rd round by the 49ers) who went 20-5 as a starter in Iowa City. Yes, Captain Kirk s crew is just two years short lived from a 12-win season but remember: they are only SU in their last 36 home games, including 4-3 last year. The Hawkeyes are also just 1-5 ATS as non-conference favorites of less than 14 points the last six years and 0-3 ATS in games before facing Iowa State (a trip to Ames looms next week). That s a far cry from Wyoming s 10-4 SU mark in season lid-lifters. The biggest concern is that Iowa did not get a single vote in the AP Preseason Poll. We guarantee Ferentz made that clear to his team. But then again, perhaps it s justified. As is THE CLINCHER: Wyoming is 5-0 ATS as a dog in season-opening games. Miami-Ohio over MARSHALL BY 6 Like the Laramie Cowboys, the Miami-Ohio RedHawks are another underthe-radar team we have our eye on again in The Hawks are the only team in FBS history to conclude a season 6-0 after starting the campaign 0-6. They are also a SMART BOX play should they puppy up tonight in Huntington. And to those who feel the season-ending six-pack was a fluke, drink again: the RedHawks led the MAC in total team defense in They also went 2-2 SU against winning opposition last season after having dropped 15 straight versus that ilk. Oh, and there s also this little thing called revenge as 4th-year head coach Chuck Martin fell to Marshall, 42-27, in his very first game at the Miami-Ohio helm in That was when Doc Holliday and the Herd were running roughshod (only loss that season was a setback at WKU). Talk about falling off the map: mighty Marshall went from 33 wins the previous three seasons to 3 last year. And it wasn t a fluke as the Herd were outyarded by 110 YPG in the process. Heck, even the line reflects the sudden collapse as the RedHawks were 24.5-point home dogs in that 2014 loss and are now getting just a point on the road as of press time. We ll take whatever we can get as the Herd went 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as chalk last season. We suggest you do the same. CLEMSON over Kent St by 35 The Flashes look like nothing more than fodder for the defending national champs today in Death Valley but we re not about to bite. Granted, the talent disparity is top-heavy in the Tigers favor but we can t lay six touchdowns with Clemmie breaking in a new quarterback and another Tiger (Auburn) waiting in the wings. As it is, Dabo s dudes are just 1-4 ATS at home versus MAC opposition and 1-4 ATS as chalk of 35 or more points while the Flashes are 3-2 ATS as dogs of more than 35 points. And though a 2nd straight 3-9 campaign didn t show improvement to the casual observer, Kent State actually added 8 points and 36 yards per game on offense in We realize that the Flashes have been blinded in games in which they ve been outgained under head coach Paul Haynes (3-30 SU, 8-24 ATS) (and they will lose the stat battle today) but without Deshaun Watson calling the signals, look for Swinney and company to keep things under wrap and get a rather elementary win. Sure it s tempting to lay the boatload but so is a night with Kim Kardashian (and look what that leads to). As a negative Nike ad would say, Just Don t Do It as the Tigers, once again, play down to the level of competition. COASTAL CAROLINA over UMass by 7 The 17-returning starter Minutemen were less than a minute away from winning their season opener last Saturday at home against Hawaii before snatching a defeat from the jaws of victory. Now they must get off the mat in time to take on a fired-up Chanticleers squad making their FBS debut. They must also deal with a trend that finds teams in Game Two of the season just ATS when facing a foe playing their opener, including SU and 74-1 ATS away in non-conference clashes. Now where else but PLAYBOOK can you find this information! Toss in UMass malodorous 4-37 SU mark on the road and you can see why we re backing the fighting French roosters (at least something in France fights) tonight in Conway. Actually, Coastal has gone postal under head coach Joe Moglia (the former CEO of Ameritrade who turned in his stock portfolio for a playbook), going in five years with four trips to the FCS playoffs, including 10-2 last season with both losses by a single point! The offense has averaged at least 34 PPG every season under Moglia and we ll look for that to continue against a Massachusetts squad that allowed 35 PPG in 2016 and 38 in its season opener. Thus, like a porn star in a locker room, we re on the Cocks today especially now that they ve become home dogs. PENN ST over Akron by 28 Safe to say that while the rest of the college football world is on Penn State like OJ Simpson on a blonde at his coming out party, PLAYBOOK is hopping on the Nittany Lion fade train this season. After setting a whopping 31 school records last season, PSU s theme song this year should be What Goes Up, Must Come Down as we foresee a Spinning Wheel in sight for the Lions. Granted they return a ton of starters, but the only one fatter than the PSU players is head coach James Franklin, who just inked a new three-year $20 million contract extension a year after his seat was among the hottest in all of college football entering 2016, we might add. So with the Lions laying the 2nd-most points in a season-opening game in school history, and facing a revenge affair with in-state rival Pitt on deck next week, we re obligated to grab more points than Franklin has offered up in his head coaching career. It should also be noted that his counterpart, Terry Bowden, owns a neat 8-4 ATS career record as a nonconference road dog, including 2-0 ATS when taking 32 or more points. That s the same Bowden who owns 164 career wins, ranking 6th in the nation among active coaches. Behind SR QB Thomas Woodson back under center, and former Pitt QB turned WR Tre von Chapman (plus 6th-year RB Warren Ball), the Zips 8 returning starter offense won t be intimidated. And neither will we when Penn State falls to 1-6 ATS in season-opening games against an Akron squad willing to put its blood, sweat and tears on the line in Happy Valley. Louisville over Purdue by 28 It would not surprise us to see Bobby Petrino s Cardinals sitting on a monster season in Heisman Trophy winning QB Lamar Jackson returns after becoming the first player in FBS history to pass for more than 3,500 yards and rush for over 1,500 yards in a season. As powerful as the offense promises to be, it s the defense that figures to be the linchpin of the team. The stop-unit returns 12 players who recorded 20 or more tackles last season. In addition, LB Trevon Young returns after missing last season with a hip injury (Young was an all-acc performer in 2015). Meanwhile, Jeff Brohm moves from Western Kentucky to Purdue as its new head coach, looking to perpetuate an offense that has increased its production each of the last three seasons. We like Brohm but not enough to step in front of Petrino s 11- SU and 7-1 ATS mark in season openers here, especially at a neutral site (Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis). FYI: don t even think about the possibility of the Boilermakers springing an upset. The all-knowing machine informs us that 1st-year coaches with new teams are 0-64 SU and ATS as dog of 20 or more points since 1990, including ATS if they won 3 or fewer games last year. No steam makers for us today. NEBRASKA over Arkansas St by 24 Husker boss Mike Riley brings 43 overall years of coaching experience, the 2nd-most among any active FBS head coach in the nation. He also welcomes 14 starters back form last year s 9-win squad, including all 5 on the offensive line. To better prepare for the 2017 season, Riley hired new DC Bob Diaco (former UConn head coach) and Bob Elliott from Notre Dame as his secondary coach. They all served together on the 2012 Fighting Irish team that played in the BCS title game. Despite their slow starts under head coach Blake Anderson (3-9 SU and 3-6 ATS in the first four games of the campaign), the Red Wolves have won or shared five of the last six Sun Belt titles. As a result, ASU is just 4-11 SU and 4-8 ATS in non-conference games under Anderson s lead, including 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away. With only 5 starters back on offense, and 4 on defense (just ONE lineman overall), expect another slow start in 2017 beginning today. It also doesn t hurt that Big Red is 30-1 SU and 1-1 ATS in seasonopening games since You know what to do NORTHWESTERN over Nevada by 27 Four non-descript seasons under Brian Polian led to a coaching change at Nevada. Enter Jay Norvell, the WR coach at Arizona State last season and OC with stints at Nebraska, Oklahoma and UCLA. Safe to say, Norvell is an offense maker and to help kick-start his tenure in Reno he hired Matt Mumme, former Division III head coach and son of Hal Mumme of air-raid fame at Kentucky. Safe to say a rebuild is in place. Northwestern is in good hands, too, with 11-year veteran HC Pat Fitzgerald running the show. With 17 starters back from last year s bowl winning squad, the Wildcats have sleeper written all over them. A stellar 9-2 SU and 6-3 ATS mark in page 6

7 season openers for Fitzy, coupled with a sterling ATS mark by 17 returning starters that won 7 or more games in season openers, puts us on the purple cats in today s fray. ILLINOIS over Ball St by 8 Year Two of the love fest begins in Champaign where Lovie Smith s decision to start the 2nd-most amount of freshmen (29.2%) in the country last year figures to pay dividends in His troops paid dearly for the endeavor last year as the Illini finished No. 127 (2nd to last) in first down offense, and also No. 127 in 3rd down conversion percentage. Have to figure those numbers improve dramatically this season, and it should start here today against a Ball State bunch that is 2-19 SU in road openers. The Cardinals are also 3-24 SU in Big Ten battles but 11-2 ATS the last thirteen contests. The bottom line is Ball State improved 78 YPG on offense and 47 YPG on defense last year under 1st-year head coach Mike Neu. In a matchup of two programs that figure to ascend this season, we ll take a seat on the sidelines and observe for now. OKLAHOMA over Utep by 42 Safe to say the annual OU love affair wore off somewhat as the Sooners are making their 18th straight preseason poll, occupying the No. 7 spot in the AP Top 25. That s down a few notches from past editions, largely due to Bob Stoops shocking retirement. Former OC Lincoln Riley assumes the reins and promptly debuts as a 44-point favorite. And because we know you d like to know, new head coaches debuting as favorites of more than 30 points are 7-3 ATS all-time since 1990, with this being the largest line in that span. And speaking of which, the Sooners are 6-1 ATS as non-con home chalk of 35 or more points, while the host in this series stands 3-0 ATS. The Miners bring a paltry 4-12 ATS log in games against Big 12 foes, while head coach Sean Kugler resides squarely on the hot seat this season. The ugly stat that keeps us from gobbling up all the points is the fact that UTEP is ATS in games in which they are outgained. Gulp. NORTH CAROLINA over California by 6 It s back to square one for the Tar Heels. Not only did they lose starting QB Mitchell Trubisky to the Chicago Bears in the first round of this year s NFL draft, they also saw workhorse RBs Elijah Hood and T.J. Logan depart. The biggest loss, however, might be DC Gene Chizik, who pulled a Bob Stoops and decided to retire. It s a devastating loss considering UNC s defense improved 90 YPG since his arrival two years ago. Losers of three of their final four games last season, this becomes a pivotal contest for Larry Fedora s crew, especially with Louisville up next. And speaking of defense, new California head coach Justin Wilcox a defensive coordinator guru with stops at Boise State, Tennessee, USC, Washington and Wisconsin will certainly improve a 500-yard stop unit sooner than later with 8 starters back on defense. A glitzy 7-0 ATS road dog log of more than 3 points bodes well for the Bears. A 3-1 all-time SU mark against Pac-12 foes looks like icing on the cake. Toss in the fact that the favorite in UNC-Pac12 games is ATS and we find ourselves on the rejuvenated Golden Bears here. MISSISSIPPI over S Alabama by 20 This is either a one-way rout with the Rebels playing their hearts out for fallen head coach Hugh Freeze, or a team resigned to go through the motions. One thing s for sure: Ole Miss is most likely the most ruffled Power Five team in the land at the moment. Losing Freeze to an unexpected alleged sex scandal is calamitous enough, let alone trying to gather a team off its knees that dropped five of its final 7 games of the season last year, including a pair of SU double-digit favorite losses to conclude the campaign (by 17 and 35 points). Yes, the young Rebs started the 5th most freshmen in the country last season and are technically a mission team in 2017, but until order comes to Oxford, we ll avoid them like the plague until we see signs of a remedy. Like we said about the Jaguars in their season opener last year, while invading a SEC power can be intimidating, USA knocked off a solid San Diego State squad as a whopping 17.5-point dog in 2015, and proceeded to follow up with a similar win over the Aztecs as 18-point home dogs again last year. Even more stunning, South Alabama shocked Mississippi State, 21-20, in Starkville in last year s lid-lifter, so you can safely discount the intimidation factor today! The question is what do they do for an encore this year? Try scheduling three games in September against FBS foes that have collectively won 13 of their 17 bowl games this decade, starting with Ole Miss tonight. Johnny Reb has been warned. USC over W Michigan by 34 When USC handed Sam Darnold the keys to the offense, the Trojans dropped a decision at Utah, a game in which they out-yarded the Utes. They then proceeded win over and outgain all nine remaining foes. Darnold finished with the 2nd-most passing yards of all freshmen in Moreover, USC is returning 81 squad men from last year s Rode Bowl champion team and earned its 16th straight AP preseason poll ranking. On the other side of the coin, Western Michigan enjoyed its best season in school history when it suffered its only loss of the campaign to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Unfortunately, WMU loses fiery head coach P.J. Fleck, its all conference QB Zach Terrell (started 40 games the last three years, going 29-11), and superstar WR Corey Davis (5th pick of the draft to Tennessee). Hence, this is not the ideal venue or opponent to be breaking in the replacements. And finally, this from our powerful database: season-opening dogs of 24 or more points that were in a bowl game last season are 0-27 SU and 8-19 ATS since 1990 outscored by an average of No Broncos for us. Byu over Lsu by 1 This game won t take place as scheduled in hurricane-battered Houston but at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans (still 9:30 ET on ESPN). Pretty appropriate, huh? The Cougars opened 2017 with an underwhelming 20-6 win at home over a stubborn Portland State team last Saturday. BYU knew the Vikings would be playing with a chip on their shoulder but still held PSU to 220 yards of offense. The Mormons are 5-0 ATS in Game Two of the season, and also 5-0 ATS as dogs of more than 10 points. Yes, they ve lost the money in each of their last six games against SEC opposition but Kalani Sitake s team is one of only 10 teams to have earned a bowl bid every year since 2005 plus, they re led by heady QB Tanner Magnum, who has made 14 starts for the Cougars over the last two years. LSU welcomes Ed Orgeron as its new head coach but he has big shoes to fill replacing the departed Les Miles, an iconic coach who went in his 12-plus seasons with the Tigers. Orgeron must now prove he can do more than just recruit players, so the pressure is on. Our forever fact-finding database reminds us Orgeron is only 8-24 SU in his college football head-coaching career against winning opponents, including 2-5 SUATS against winning non-conference foes. With the pressure squarely on Orgeron s Bengals, a take is in order tonight. 5 BEST BET TEXAS over Maryland by 29 It was time. After Texas graciously offered HC Charlie Strong a third year after an start, the Longhorns stood a middling 5-5 after ten games last season. Then came the death knell, an unthinkable loss to Kansas as point road chalk. So long, Charlie. Enter former Houston head man Tom Herman, who we feel will prove to be a great hire for the Horns. After all, he was one of only TWO Group of Five coaches to own a winning record (5-0 SUATS) against Power Five conference teams during his 2-year tenure with Houston, racking up an impressive 22-5 SU record overall. Thankfully, the cupboards ain t exactly bare in Austin, as only 16.3% of game starts last year were by seniors (5th fewest in the land). In fact, UT freshmen have started 109 games the last two years the most in the nation. As for the Terps, rookie head coach DJ Durkin saw his team double its win total from 2015 and land a bowl bid last year despite being outyarded 49 YPG on the season. Another red flag: after a 4-0 start against suspect opponents (foes were 8-39 combined the previous season) to begin the 2016 campaign, Maryland went 2-7 out against formidable opposition. Worse, they were 0-5 SUATS away from home versus FBS foes under Durkin last season with an average losing margin of 22.5 PPG. Can t use negatives like that to justify fading an angry bunch of Longhorns that are overdue to stampede their way back into national relevance. Believe us, coach Herman fully realizes that UT hasn t suffered four consecutive losing seasons since 1938! The chase to put those thoughts to rest begins at high noon today. THE CLINCHER: Texas head coach Herman is 9-0 SU and 7-0 ATS against non-conference opponents, winning by a margin of more than 29 PPG. NOTRE DAME over Temple by 10 Speaking of national relevance, are the Fighting Irish in danger of circling the drain? Following last year s ugly 4-8 mark, Brian Kelly s boys are now a sister-kissing SU in their last 30 games not exactly what NBC was expecting when they paid out the big bucks to televise Notre Dame football. Hopefully, the TV brass looked past the disappointing record to see a team that lost SEVEN players in the first four rounds of the 2016 NFL draft and then saw seven of its 8 losses come by 8 points or less. It doesn t get any easier this year, though, as UND will take on 11 opponents that appeared in a bowl game last season. However, as the 2017 Playbook Football Preview Guide magazine calls out, the last six times the Irish failed to deliver a winning season, they went bowling in all six years that followed. Tough spot for new Temple HC Geoff Collins (former Florida DC) (continued on next page) page 7

8 to debut but he should fit like a glove with an Owls defense that held 8 foes to season-low yardage in 2016 the most in the land. Unfortunately for Collins, 50% of team starts last year were made by seniors, meaning every player on this year s squad must step up if they hope to come near last season s 10-4 record. Depite this being a salty test, our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 reminds us Temple is a Red-Faced Bowler (lost to Wake Forest as double-digit chalk in last year s Military Bowl). And when we look at Kelly s blasé 8-5 SU and ATS record in season openers including 3-5 SU and ATS versus foes that won 5 or more games the previous year we can only back the Red Faces from Philly here. AUBURN over Ga Southern by 38 After a 3-0 start under new coach Tyson Summers last year, the Eagles did a 180º turn and flew south, going 2-7 the rest of the way. So who got the blame? Summers himself, after his puzzling decision to abandon a powerful ground game that led the nation in rushing the previous season. WTF? Summer has since come to his senses and brought in a Paul Johnson clone, Bryan Cook, as his new OC. Unlike a fallen Eagles team looking to regain its perch, it s our feeling the Tigers will be right in the hunt for the SEC West title from Week One. Sixteen starters back from last year s 8-win unit is a good thing but it s even better when former Baylor QB Jarret Stidham is at the controls. While substantial improvement on both sides of the ball last year yielded a net gain of just one victory, if those numbers continue to ascend in 2017 and they should with RB Kamryn Pettway (the highest rushing YPG of all returning FBS RBs this season) toting the ball Aubbie s 30-1 SU mark at home in non-conference games since 2007 looks safe. While we fully expect the GSU Power Company to be back in business in 2017, our best guess is it will start getting fine-tuned next week against New Hampshire. In other words, we ll wait and see before ordering up any Eagle tickets this campaign. GEORGIA over Appalachian St by 11 Chances are you ll hear one of the game broadcast announcers refer to Appalachian State as a cinderella squad when the Mountaineers take on Georgia Saturday, but the truth is the boys from Boone have moved far beyond that designation since stunning Michigan in the Big House ten years ago. This program has suffered only ONE losing season since 1993, and has won 27 of its last 32 games with only two losses by more than 13 points while going 12-3 SUATS away in lined games during that span. Still, can they add another big win to their resume today against a Dawgs team that s favored to win the SEC East? Time to bring in our SEC scout, Jaybird The Bulldog, who flatly states: Read my lips. No for three reasons. One, Georgia has not one but TWO running backs (Nick Chubb and Sony Michel) that could start for any team in the country. Two, the Dawgs played no less than 20 freshmen last year, so we ve got some skilled young players with added experience. And three, HC Kirby Smart has 10 starters returning to his defense so, no upset today between the Hedges. But I m stayin off the Bulldogs here from a betting standpoint just because of who they ve got next week Notre Dame at South Bend. There ll be better situations down the road. A quick stat check tells us why Jaybird is so high on UGA s running back tandem: Chubb and Michel have rushed for a combined total of 5,818 yards (more than three and half miles) and scored 46 touchdowns on the ground. If the offensive line can stay healthy, 2nd-year coach Smart should be dancing between the Hedges especially with a SEC home slate that includes Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina and Kentucky. But while we do occasionally suggest laying doubles in a season opener (see 5* call on Texas), we ll side with Jaybird and watch this one from afar. Kentucky over SOUTHERN MISS by 6 Hard to imagine revenge being the main catalyst for this rematch from 2016 but this one s been circled for a year in the UK locker room after Southern Miss ambushed the Wildcats in a season-opening upset win at Commonwealth Stadium. We can certainly envision Big Blue prevailing on the scoreboard: the experienced Cats feature the nation s 7th largest amount of returning production, keyed by 17 starters back from last year s squad. That s because only 16.2% of all starts last year were made by seniors, the 4th fewest in the land. Meanwhile, massive defensive improvement came last year in Jay Hopson s first season in Hattiesburg when the Golden Eagles defense allowed 50 YPG less than they did in 2015 (they also finished No. 2 in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage). And while Smissy s 4.6 defensive yards allowed per rush seems like cause for concern, Hopson s guys allowed just 325 total yards per outing last season (compare to Kentucky s 434 YPG on D ). In fact, USM owns a respectable 11-6 ATS mark as a single-digit dog in SEC showdowns while allowing just under 22 PPG in those contests. So why are the Wildcats double-digit road chalk this afternoon? Because UK returns four starters from an offensive line that paved the way for the 2nd most rushing yards in school history (3,044) and a school record 30 TDs in Impressive stuff but not enough to make us lay big points in a season-opening road game. Houston over TEX-SAN ANTONIO by 6 Keep an eye on this one. Had the game been scheduled at Houston, it would most likely have been canceled thanks to Hurricane Harvey. But with Harvey forecast to dump rain everywhere in east Texas for 2 or 3 more days, San Antonio could get a thorough drenching. Fortunately, this one takes place inside the Alamadome, which should bring a huge sigh of relief to all concerned (provided they can get there). Still, 1styear Houston head man (and former Longhorn QB) Major Applewhite has a Texas-sized problem on his hands: after posting a two-season best 22 wins under Tom Herman, Houston moves forward without the services of all-everything QB Gred Ward Jr. Texas A&M transfer QB Kyle Allen takes over, but we don t like that 1st year coaches (Applewhite) are just ATS as road favorites of more than 4 points in season-opening games since 1990, including 0-4 ATS against foes that were bowlers the previou season. UTSA head coach Frank Wilson has only a 1-year edge over newbie Applewhite but he still led the Roadrunners to a bowl game last season tying an NCAA modern startup program record by playing in a bowl game in just a team s sixth season. And after Wilson reeled in what we considered the top recruiting class in school history and the No. 1 ranked class in Conference USA, the Runners topped things off by returning four all conference performers in From the well-oiled machine: doubledigit home dogs in season-opening games that were bowlers last season are 5-1 ATS the last two years (see Indiana and Southern Miss on this week s card). With that, there s only one way to look here. NC State over South Carolina by 13 Here we go with the first of three ACC-SEC matchups this opening week, one that pits NC State s upper classmen experience against South Carolina s younger group of players that were force-fed into the system early. We ll be honest: State sits at the top of our list for Under The Radar squads in 2017, and we re buying in from the get-go. NCSU will field its most experienced team in school history this season, featuring Boise State graduate transfer QB Ryan Finley, who tossed for 3,059 yards and 18 TDs for the Pack last year. Eleven of the team s returning starters are seniors, including the entire defensive line, compared to a South Carolina roster from the 2016 Birmingham Bowl that showed 76 of the 113 man squad were either freshmen (5) or sophomores (24), compared to 18 juniors and 19 seniors. With head coach Will Muschamp back for Season Two after doubling SC s win total from 2015 and landing a bowl bid, we re sure the young Cocks will rise again in 2017 just not yet. Don t be overly impressed by South Carolina s recent 9-2 ATS mark versus the ACC the team is also 0-5 ATS in road openers of late. Series history lines up behind the favorite (4-1 ATS L5) in this afternoon s contest in Charlotte, which also finds Muschamp and company taking on the first of 11 bowl opponents! Remember this throughout the 2017 season: the Wolfpack are 23-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in games under head coach Dave Doeren when they outgain an opponent. Lay the points. 4 BEST BET Michigan over Florida by 14 Hope there aren t any burrs in the grass at Ann Arbor because this year s Wolverines are about as barefoot as any squad we ve ever seen where returning starters are concerned. Is that the reason bettors have ignored the recent team suspensions for Florida and bet the Gators down from +5 to +3.5? Let s hope not. Remember Urban Meyer s Ohio State team last season? Just 3 starters on each side of the ball and the Buckeyes annihilated Bowling Green in their season opener, The point is Michigan s Jim Harbaugh recruits players that are on a level with Meyer and Nick Saban (read: 4 and 5* all stars), so don t expect the Wolverines to fall victim to a lack of returning starters this afternoon at Jerry s World. Yes, the Gators appear much improved in 2017 but two major concerns linger: 1) the lack of a proven quarterback (Jim McElwain still undecided between three possible starters), and 2) the seven recent players suspensions, including star WR Antonio Callaway not to mention two more players cited for marijuana possession one of whom was expected to fill in for Callaway, the other of whom was already on the original seven players suspension list (oh to be the team s bail bondsman)! What we really like today in Texas is Harbaugh s recent 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games as a favorite of 7 or less points, and the fact that the Wolves dress up as Red-Faced Bowlers (see AWESOME ANGLE on page 2). THE CLINCHER: Harbaugh is 6-0 SUATS by an average win margin of 24.5 PPG as a favorite of 7 or less points before Game Six of the season in his college football head coaching career. page 8

9 Vanderbilt over MIDDLE TENNESSEE by 1 Like last year, we re very high on the Commodores again this season as Marc points out in his 2017 ATS Top 10 Teams article in the PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine but just not today as the Blue Man Group dresses up as one of our Red-Faced Bowler AWESOME ANGLE teams this week. We also suspect the Raiders cheeks might still be flushed over last year s 23-point loss to the Commodores at Nashville in their initial road game of the season. Even with that blowout, though, MTSU still owns a 3-2 SUATS series edge of late. Lots of stats in conflict here tonight: Vandy owns a 8-2 SU and ATS log agasint CUSA foes, includng 5-0 SUATS as a favorite but the Commies are 0-5 SU in season openers, and a dismal 6-26 SU mark in road openers. The hosts are a respectable SU at home under head coach Rick Stockstill against lined foes that won 6 or fewer games the previous season, with only 7 losses by 7 or more points. And speaking of Stockstill, his son Brent is arguably the best QB in the CUSA. The super sharp southpaw threw for a school record 3,233 yards and 33 TDs last season (despite missing the final four games of the campaign with a shoulder injury) and his go-to targets are back. Word is the Blue Raiders are anxious to make amends for their embarrassing red faced bowl loss to Hawaii to conclude last season, and the public agrees, moving the line from Vandy -5.5 to Better get the hook while you can! Alabama over Florida St by 3 Twenty years ago, these two would have opened with Mercer and Delaware State instead of risking their record by taking part in a championship caliber season-opening showdown. However, thanks to a $5 million payday and the fact that coaches realized they could still reach the College Football Playoff despite an early loss, fans are being treated to more and more of these monster matchups on opening weekend. Tonight s meeting at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta marks the 9th straight season the No. 1 ranked Tide made the Top 5 of the AP preseason poll. (FYI: Alabama was No. 1 last season and Clemson was No. 2 in last year s preseason poll and went on to meet one another in the CFB Playoff title game). But here s something you might not have heard from the talking heads: the Seminoles are a qualified Hibernation Wolf here a season-opening dog with 16 or more starters that won its final game of the previous season SU as an underdog and these Wolves have put many a big bite on favored opponents in Game One over the years. Florida State s offense should keep piling up the points in QB Deondre Francois second year behind center but what about that defense? FSU s deeply experienced 10 returning starter stop-unit features players with 186 career starts, including 15 who have started a game (only 18.4% of starts last year were made by Seminole seniors). It also helps Florida State s cause that head coach Jimbo Fisher (who was Nick Saban s OC at LSU from ) is the answer to this week s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3, going 30-5 SU in non-conference clashes, including 9-1 SU (90% a higher win percentage than any coach in the SEC against the SEC) and 7-3 ATS versus SEC foes. The Nictator brings his Tide to town with four straight wins over ACC opponents and a 6-1 ATS mark in their previous seven tries as non-conference chalk of 10 or fewer points. But while AP Preseason No. 1 ranked teams are 32-5 SU in season-opening games, they ve gone just ATS in these games (they re also ATS in all games when not installed as double-digit favorites). Yes, Saban might own a 17-3 SU and 11-6 ATS in season openers, but he s gone only SU and ATS as single-digit non-conference chalk in those contests. Fisher and friends certainly have to talent to win this game outright but the fact that Bama has won ten straight openers under Saban means the Tide should once again escape by the skin of their tusks. BOISE ST over Troy by 6 There wasn t a great deal of drop-off in SU wins when current head coach Bryan Harsin took over for Chris Petersen in 2014 but the Broncos have emptied plenty of wallets since then trying to enjoy similar success against the pointspread (19-7 SU but 9-16 ATS L2Y). Boise currently owns a mediocre 1-3 ATS mark in season openers the last four years, plus the Broncos are now 1-10 ATS at home on their once-intimidating blue turf over the past two campaigns. That s great news for 3rd-year coach Neal Brown, whose Trojans went from 4 wins to 10 last season especially since word out of Troy is this year s team might be their best ever. Loaded with 16 returning starters 10 on offense including 4th-year senior starting QB Brandon Silvers the Trojans surge last season came behind a bevy of sophomores and juniors who are now juniors and seniors. In addition, every rushing and pass-receiving yard returns for Brown s offense. The feeling here is next week s rematch with Washington State looms larger on Boise s prioity list, and our all-knowing database confirms the notion as it notes the Broncos are just 1-5 ATS in games before battling Pac-12 foes the last six years. On the flip side, Troy s 5-2 ATS dog log in season openers, along with an 8-4 ATS double-digit dog mark in non-con games, means we ll gladly take doubles with the Trojans in this early afternoon start from Idaho. Sunday, September 3 Virginia Tech over West Virginia by 10 If we were to compare this evening s matchup at Landover, Maryland based strictly on season-opening records, there s little doubt the Mountaineers would gobble up Tech from start to finish. Not only has West Virginia gone 11-2 ATS in its first lined game of the season over the last 13 years, the Hokies counter with an abysmal 0-7 ATS in season openers of late. So why do we like Virginia Tech to handle the Hillbillies tonight? For openers, WVU is just ATS against ACC foes dating back to 1982, as well as 7-12 SU and ATS in this series, including 0-5 ATS as dogs of less than 8 points. Most important, though, is the coaching mismatch between Va Tech s Justin Fuente and West Virginia s Dana Holgorson. Fuente has flourished in several roles we ll see here, going 6-1 ATS favorite in nonconference contests, and 9-1 ATS in games against foes that won 10 or more games the previous season. With the 3rd highest percentage of starts by seniors in 2016 of all FBS teams, Holgorsen will be forced to retool in 2017 not good news in a season-opening game against a coaching staff that rarely gets outcoached. Yes, both starting QBs from last year are gone but we still remember how the Hokies took eventual national champ Clemson right down to the wire in the ACC title game. As rising country singer Morgan Wallen might say in his soon-to-be smash hit Up Down, these two teams could be headed in opposite directions. UCLA over Texas A&M by 11 Time to hit the reset button for UCLA head coach Jim Mora, who welcomes back QB Josh Rosen following last year s 1-6 SU debacle in the seven games after Rosen suffered a season-ending injury. The biggest culprit was the puzzling fact that the backup QB tried to emulate Rosen rather than establishing a ground game. The result? The Bruins finished No. 127 in the land in rush offense! There was some good news, however, as the defense stiffened to improve 19 YPG on the season. Tonight, Mora can point to his team s 7-1 SU record in the last 8 games versus SEC foes (loss last year in season opener at College Station, 31-24) despite being the dog in all eight games. That defeat puts A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin in a precarious spot here as the Aggies are a dismal 4-13 ATS versus revenge over his last four years. Marc called out the fact in the International Football Betting Conference in Costa Rica last month that Sumlin has been a money burner at A&M, going ATS, including 2-11 SUATS as a dog of 7 or less points (in competitive games). Meanwhile, the Bruins have gone 6-2 ATS with non-conference revenge, as well as 14-5 SU and ATS season openers. With the Chosen one back behind center, look for Mora to mow down the teams that derailed his troops last year, starting with the Aggies tonight. Monday, September 4 Georgia Tech over Tennessee by 4 Expect things to get a bit rocky for Tennessee in The Vols lost 5 starters from the offense, including star QB Joshua Dobbs (23-12 as a starter) to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and shifty RB Alvin Kamara (1,188 allpurpose yards and 13 TDs in 2016). As if that s not enough to replace, linebacker Darrin Kirkland expected to be a leader on defense after suffering through an injury-marred campaign in 2016 (missed five games) went down in practice on Friday with a torn meniscus. However, Georgia Tech decided to level the playing field last week when sophomore starting running back Dedrick Mills (771 yards and 12 TDs) was dismissed from the team (line moved from UT -3 to -4 after the suspension was announced). Not a big deal we say, especially with the Yellow Jackets plug-and-play offense where many backs are shuttled in and out of Paul Johnson s lineup. And for those of you who feel Ol Sourpuss can t coach, guess again: he averages 8.85 wins per season, which ranks No. 9 among all current head coaches and in his previous 19 years as a head coach, Johnson led his troops to eithe the FCS playoffs or a FBS bowl games 18 times! He s also got some good ATS history up his sleeve in the matchup, going 13-2 SU in season openers, as well as 12-3 SU in home openers (9-0 the last nine), and 3-0 SUATS versus the rugged SEC last season. And lest we forget, PJ is the answer to this week s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Tennessee has dropped four straight decisions against the number as chalk in this series, so we won t fade Tech s ATS mark in Game One tonight in Atlanta. NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined and Bold. Should we pass or not have a strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded. page 9

10 2017 College Football OVER /UNDER Breakdown COMPILED BY VICTOR KING OF KING CREOLE SPORTS With the 2017 College Football season commencing play on August 26, KING CREOLE has dissected last year s OU results for all Division 1-A schools. The teams are listed in alphabetical order. The first column is each team s 2016 OU results with OVERS listed first and UNDERS listed second (along with any OU ties). All teams that went Over or Under 64% of the time or greater are in BOLD font. Columns two and three list each team s average points scored on offense and allowed on defense. Column four lists the total amount of points scored and allowed. Column five lists the average Over/ Under line. And the last column lists the average Over/Under MARGIN for each team. Significant Over/ Under average margins also appear in a BOLD font. NOW, LET S TAKE A LOOK AT LAST YEAR S TOP TEAMS IN VARIOUS OU CATEGORIES: Best OVER teams: Pittsburgh: 11-2 O/U La Tech: 11-3 O/U New Mexico, S Florida: 10-3 O/U Penn St: O/U La-Monroe, UNLV: 9-3 O/U Hawaii, Michigan, Mid Tenn St, Tennessee: 9-4 O/U California, Florida Atl, Purdue: 8-4 O/U Navy, Wyoming: 9-5 O/U. Best UNDER teams: Ohio U: O/U Cincinnati, LSU 2-10 O/U Arkansas St, BYU: 3-10 O/U Buffalo, Syracuse: 3-9 O/U Auburn, Baylor, E Michigan, Indiana, Miami-Oh, Florida, N Carolina, Nebraska, Northwestern, USC: O/U. MOST combined PPG (offense + defense): Texas Tech: 87.2 combined ppg! California: 79.7 La Tech: 77.9 Oregon: 76.8 Pittsburgh: 76.1 Mid Tenn St: 75.5 S Florida: 75.4 Wyoming: 75.0 Arizona St: 73.1 Oklahoma: 72.7 Tulsa: 72.3 W Kentucky: 70.1 Navy: 68.9 UNLV: 68.3 New Mexico: LEAST combined PPG (offense + defense): Florida: 40.7 combined ppg! Wake Forest: 42.6 Connecticut: 42.9 Iowa: 43.7 LSU, Wisconsin: 44.0 Boston Coll: 45.4 Cincinnati: 46.2 Georgia St: 46.5 Miami-Oh: 46.6 Stanford: 46.7 Appalachian St, Vanderbilt: 47.0 S Carolina: 47.3 HIGHEST average OU line: Texas Tech: Oregon: 73.2 California: 73.8 Baylor: 71.1 Oklahoma: 68.3 Tulsa: 67.8 Texas: 67.3 Arizona St: 67.2 Oklahoma St: 66.7 W Kentucky: 66.4 La Tech: 65.9 Washington St: 65.2 Mid Tenn St: 64.8 Memphis: LOWEST average OU line: Boston Coll: 43.5 Florida: 44.0 Wisconsin: 45.2 Kent St: 45.6 Connecticut, Wake Forest: 46.1 Vanderbilt: 46.9 Georgia, Tulane: 47.4 Army, Stanford: 48.5 S Carolina: 49.0 Iowa: 49.1 Northwestern: HIGHEST average OU MARGIN: Pittsburgh: ppg! Wyoming: La Tech: S Florida: Mid Tenn St: Navy: UNLV: New Mexico, Penn St: Tennessee: +9.4 Colorado St: +7.7 UTEP: +7.5 Air Force, Florida Atl, Massachusetts: +7.4 LOWEST average OU MARGIN: Cincinnati: ppg! Auburn: -8.2 Baylor: -7.5 Arkansas St, Fresno St: -7.2 NC State: -6.6 Appalachian St, N Carolina: -6.4 Georgia St: -6.3 W Virginia: -6.2 Highest UNDER (2014) to OVER (2015) reversals: Pittsburgh: O/U (2015) to 11-2 O/U (2016) Penn St: O/U to O/U Missouri: 1-11 O/U to O/U Vanderbilt: O/U to -1 O/U New Mexico: O/U to 10-3 O/U Mid Tenn St: /U to 9-4 O/U Florida Atl: 4-8 O/U to 8-4 O/U California: O/U to 8-4 O/U Wyoming: 4-7 O/U to 9-5 O/U. Highest OVER (2014) to UNDER (2015) reversals: Arkansas St: 10-3 O/U (2015) to 3-10 O/U (2016) Syracuse: 9-2 O/U to 3-9 O/U Indiana: 11-2 O/U to O/U LSU: O/U to 2-10 O/U E Michigan: 9-3 O/U to O/U Fresno St: 9-2 O/U to 5-6 O/U BYU: 7-6 O/U to 3-10 O/U Cincinnati: O/U to 2-10 O/U PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST A $10,000 WINNERS-TAKE-ALL BEST BET CONTEST Now in its 32nd year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all contest. The TOP THREE finishers, the BEST BET champion and the FINAL 4-WEEK winner will take home the money, with each winning pick printed in the PLAYBOOK Newsletter carrying a value of one point, all winning DOUBLE PLAYS worth two points, and a one-time TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR (noted with an asterisk) worth three points. The designated DOUBLE PLAY BEST BET PICKS can be purchased every Friday at the Playbook Store ( com) for only $10 a week, or FREE if you re a PLAYBOOK.COM VIP ALL ACCESS MEMBER! All selections are graded against the lines posted after 1:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page at PLAYBOOK.com. Congratulations to 2016 Champion Gary London of Okie Sports. Remember, you can follow the selections of each week s Top 20 contestants, along with notable pros like: Billy The Kid, Brad Diamond, Brad Powers, California Sports, Cincinnati Kid, Doc s Sports, Fairway Jay, Hurricane Bill, James Patrick, JB Sports, JH-Sportsline, Jim Feist, Joe Nelson, Ken Thomson, Marc Lawrence, Mike Muzyka, Mr. East, Norm Hitzges, Richard Witt, Rob Vinciletti, Robbie Gainous, Robert Ferringo, Rocketman Sports, Ross Benjamin, Scott Landau, Special K Sports, Stan Lisowski, Statfox Dave, Stormin Norman, Victor King, TD Tony and more every week in the 2017 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! 2016 WISE GUYS TOP FINISHERS CONTESTANT W-L/BEST BETS PTS 1. Okie Sports / * Rocketman Sports / * Rob Vinciletti / 11-7* 35 T4. Andy Iskoe / * T4. Norm Hitzges / 12-6* 33 T4. Victor King / * Six tied w/ 32 pts: Chuck Edel, Doc s Sports, Marco D Angelo, Richard Witt, Sports Data Query Group and Stan Lisowski. Best Bet Champion: Rocky Atkinson of Rocketman Sports (29 pts) Final 4-Week Champion: Gary London of Okie Sports (11 pts) page 10

11 page 11 A TEAM-BY-TEAM LOOK AT LAST SEASON S COLLEGE O/U STATS AIR FORCE AKRON ALABAMA APPALACHIAN ST ARIZONA ARIZONA ST ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ST ARMY AUBURN BALL ST BAYLOR BOISE ST BOSTON COLL BOWL GREEN BUFFALO BYU C FLORIDA C MICHIGAN CALIFORNIA CINCINNATI CLEMSON COLORADO COLORADO ST CONNECTICUT DUKE E CAROLINA E MICHIGAN FLA ATLANTIC FLA INT L FLORIDA FLORIDA ST FRESNO ST GA SOUTHERN GEORGIA GEORGIA ST GEORGIA TECH HAWAII HOUSTON IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA IOWA ST KANSAS KANSAS ST KENT ST KENTUCKY LA LAFAYETTE LA MONROE LA TECH LOUISVILLE LSU MARSHALL MARYLAND MASSACHUSETTS MEMPHIS MIAMI FL MIAMI OH MICHIGAN MICHIGAN ST MID TENN ST MINNESOTA AVG MARG AVG LINE TOT PPG PA PF O/U TEAM MISSISSIPPI MISSISSIPPI ST MISSOURI N CAROLINA N ILLINOIS NAVY NC STATE NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW MEXICO NEW MEX ST NORTH TEXAS NORTHWESTERN NOTRE DAME OHIO ST OHIO U OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA ST OLD DOMINION OREGON OREGON ST PENN ST PITTSBURGH PURDUE RICE RUTGERS S ALABAMA S CAROLINA S FLORIDA SAN DIEGO ST SAN JOSE ST SMU SOUTHERN MISS STANFORD SYRACUSE TCU TEMPLE TENNESSEE TEXAS TEXAS A&M TEXAS ST TEXAS TECH TOLEDO TROY TULANE TULSA UCLA UNLV USC UTAH UTAH ST UTEP UTSA VANDERBILT VIRGINIA VIRGINIA TECH W KENTUCKY W MICHIGAN W VIRGINIA WAKE FOREST WASHINGTON WASHINGTON ST WISCONSIN WYOMING AVG MARG AVG LINE TOT PPG PA PF O/U TEAM

12 THIS WEEK'S BEST BETS FOR WEEK ENDING MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, BEST BET A REVIEW OF THE CURRENT STAR-RATED BEST BET SELECTIONS 4 BEST BET Your purchase of the information in this publication is intended strictly for the private use of the subscriber and/or purchaser. The redistribution of any portion of this information, in any form, without the express written consent of Preferred Picks (or Playbook or Playbook.com ) is strictly prohibited and is subject to the laws of the jurisdictions involved COLLEGE FOOTBALL - WEEK ONE 5 BEST BET 2017 COLLEGE FOOTBALL: FLA ATLANTIC MICHIGAN TEXAS UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK: WYOMING Listed next to the games below are two entries: OL is the Don Best.com opening line on the contest and PB is the PLAYBOOK margin on the game. You have a PLAYBOOK BEST BET whenever our predicted margin of victory is 6 or more points in favor of your line. Remember, opening lines are subject to change during the week so always check YOUR CURRENT LINE against the PLAYBOOK line to determine a play All times listed are Eastern Standard Time Games in Official International Rotation sequence Dates & times subject to change OL PB OL PB OL PB OL PB THURSDAY, AUGUST BOSTON COLLEGE BALL ST 197 SOUTH CAROLINA 9:30 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM 3:00 Charlotte, NC 150 NO ILLINOIS CBSSN ILLINOIS BTN NC STATE ESPN 4 13 OHIO ST 8:00 PM COLORADO ST 8:00 Denver UTEP 3:30 PM 201 MICHIGAN 3:30 Arlington, TX 5 14 INDIANA ESPN 152 COLORADO PAC OKLAHOMA FOX FLORIDA ABC BUFFALO 177 CALIFORNIA 203 VANDERBILT 5 1 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2 12:20 PM TIME CHANGE 8:00 PM MINNESOTA BTN N CAROLINA ACC MID TENN CBSSN UL-MONROE 153 BOWLING GREEN 179 S ALABAMA 205 FLORIDA ST 9:00 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM 7:30 PM 8:00 M-B Stadium MEMPHIS CBSSN MICH ST ESPNU MISSISSIPPI ESPNU ALABAMA ABC 7 3 NEW MEXICO ST 155 WYOMING W MICHIGAN 207 TROY 10:30 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM 5:15 PM TIME CHANGE 3:45 PM ARIZONA ST PAC IOWA BTN USC PAC BOISE ST ESPNU 12 6 FLORIDA INT L 157 MIAMI OHIO BYU 1 6:00 PM TIME CHANGE 6:30 PM TIME CHANGE 9:30 New Orleans SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 3 UCF CBSSN MARSHALL LSU ESPN 12 TULSA 159 KENT ST 185 MARYLAND 209 WEST VIRGINIA 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE 12:00 PM 12:00 PM TIME CHANGE 7:30 Landover, MD OKLAHOMA ST FS CLEMSON ESPN TEXAS FS VA TECH ABC UMASS 187 TEMPLE 211 TEXAS A&M FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1 7:00 PM TIME CHANGE 3:30 PM 7:30 PM 162 COASTAL CAROLINA NL NOTRE DAME NBC UCLA FOX 3 11 CHARLOTTE 163 AKRON 189 GA SOUTHERN 6:30 PM 12:00 PM 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 4 E MICHIGAN PENN ST ABC AUBURN SEC WASHINGTON LOUISVILLE FOX APPALACHIAN ST 213 TENNESSEE 3 8:00 PM TIME CHANGE 7:30 PM TIME CHANGE 6:15 PM 8:00 M-B Stadium RUTGERS FS GEORGIA ESPN GA TECH ESPN 4 NAVY ESPNU ARKANSAS ST 193 KENTUCKY :00 PM 8:00 PM TIME CHANGE 4:00 PM FLA ATLANTIC NEBRASKA BTN SO MISS CBSSN UTAH ST 171 NEVADA BTN 195 HOUSTON :00 PM 3:30 PM TIME CHANGE 7:00 PM WISCONSIN ESPN NORTHWESTERN UTSA page 12