NFL RATING 5 KEYS ARE 4-1 THIS YEAR IN NCAA PREDICTIONS THE PAST TWO SATURDAYS

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1 THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVI Issue 11 October 10, 2016 $10.00 NFL RATING 5 KEYS ARE 4-1 THIS YEAR IN NCAA PREDICTIONS THE PAST TWO SATURDAYS 4th QUARTER COVERS NCAA Week 6: Arkansas State (+6) 27, Georgia Southern 26: Winless Arkansas State wound up with a 5-0 turnover deficit in this game to fall behind late in the third quarter. Into the fourth quarter the Red Wolves still trailed by nine as a home underdog but a field goal put the margin right on the closing number of 6, though most of the week Georgia Southern was a bigger favorite. Arkansas State converted a 4th-and-16 with less than two minutes to go and would wind up in the end zone with just nine seconds left to tie the game, with the point after successful to deliver a one-point win for the Red Wolves as a home underdog. Arkansas State had a yardage edge and managed to overcome three lost fumbles and two interceptions. Memphis (-10) 34, Temple 27: The underdog Owls had a 13-0 lead in this game Thursday night but Memphis managed a short field goal to get on the board just before halftime. Memphis took control in the second half with four straight scores including a defensive touchdown as in just 12 minutes of game clock the game swung to a edge for the host. Temple hit a big play to answer and get back within seven points but the ensuing kickoff was returned for a touchdown as Memphis still led by 14 with about six minutes to go. Temple s offense kept the pressure on producing a scoring drive to get back within seven and the game ended with the Owls throwing an interception in Memphis territory. It was enough for Temple to hold the cover and deservedly so with a yardage advantage for the underdog. Louisiana Tech (+3) 55, Western Kentucky 52: The Bulldogs had a 21-point lead heading into the fourth quarter but Western Kentucky made a late push, blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown with about five minutes to go in the game to close within three points. Just a few minutes later the Bulldogs had to line up to punt again and Western Kentucky had over two minutes of clock with a touchdown being enough to change the spread result. On the first play from scrimmage Western Kentucky took a sack and the ball came loose as Louisiana Tech was able to hold on ironically with a big play from its defense in a game that featured 107 points. Old Dominion (-12½) 36, Massachusetts 16: This game was moved to Friday night with Hurricane Matthew approaching and the line jumped from -7 up to as high as - 12½. Old Dominion led by 10 at the half and pulled just past the closing number with a edge heading into the third quarter. The Monarchs added another touchdown to lead by 20 before a pair of interceptions for the Minutemen including one inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line as Massachusetts threatened late in the game. Pittsburgh (-6) 37, Georgia Tech 34: Pittsburgh saw a lead disappear but early in the fourth quarter the Panthers went up 27-20, momentarily slipping past the favorite spread. The lead didn t last long and with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter Georgia Tech took a lead. A 74-yard pass play tied the game for the Panthers and with the game tied Georgia Tech made a bold decision to go for it on 4th-and-short from their own 34-yard line. They didn t get it and Pittsburgh was able to run the clock down and strike the game winning field goal as time expired, although it wasn t enough to cover the favorite spread. Duke (-5) 13, Army 6: While Army likely wasn t going to throw the ball around very much anyway, challenging rain and wind conditions kept both teams grounded Saturday with neither squad eclipsing 50 passing yards. Duke held a 13-0 lead early but Army scored a touchdown just before halftime. Due to the conditions the Knights went for two in a play that eventually loomed large on the spread result, with a failed conversion. There wound up being no points scored in the second half but Army did threaten with two drives into Duke s territory in the fourth quarter including reaching the 31-yard line before losing a fumble on 1st down. NC State (-2½) 10, Notre Dame 3: With conditions well past suitable for football Notre Dame and NC State slogged through three quarters with just a pair of field goals, leaving the spread outcome still in doubt with a near-even line all week though NC State went from being the underdog to the favorite. Early in the fourth quarter the Wolfpack got the big play it needed on special teams with a blocked punt and a return 16 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. The Irish mounted a great final drive that included a 4th down conversion but they eventually were stopped on a 4th-and-8 from the 16-yard line with fewer than two minutes left on the clock. Ohio (-12) 30, Bowling Green 24: Ohio led late in the third quarter but Bowling Green scored with just over a minute to go in the third quarter to close to within 13 points. A 90-yard drive for the Falcons wound up with no points as Ohio still sat past the number but after the Bobcats missed a field goal Bowling Green went 79 yards to score the backdoor cover clincher with just over a minute to go in the game. South Florida (-14) 38, East Carolina 22: The Bulls led 24-6 well into third quarter but East Carolina made a great run, lining up for a two-point conversion to tie the game with less than seven minutes to go Get the rest at Between the Lines... A major injury before the season started has sparked the improbable rise for two top NFC contenders as injuries to Teddy Bridgewater and Tony Romo seemed to doom promising forecasts for Minnesota and Dallas. The Vikings made a trade for Sam Bradford that was mostly panned while the Cowboys stayed put and went with rookie Dak Prescott. Both teams look like serious threats in the NFC at this point. Bridgewater won t be back this season as his recovery timetable is significant but Tony Romo is expected to be ready to return in the coming weeks. There won t be any debate what to do if Prescott continues to play this well and Dallas continues to win with the rookie currently second in the NFL in total QBR with no turnovers. While Minnesota and Dallas found ways to quickly solve quarterback injuries the misery in Cleveland continues. Cody Kessler was the team s third starting quarterback of the season and he had to leave last week s game. Converted wide receiver Terrelle Pryor has taken many snaps at quarterback as well and last week freshly signed Charlie Whitehurst was forced into action as the fifth different quarterback for the team just five games into the season and Whitehurst wound up leaving the game in the final minutes as well leaving Pryor to finish the game. Hue Jackson is still winless nine games in counting the preseason for the Browns. Cleveland has been reasonably competitive despite the challenges and this week s game vs. a Tennessee team that has seven wins since 2014 may present one of the better opportunities of the season. The Browns clearly have the worst point differential in the NFL at -61.The best point differential in the NFL still belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles at +64 despite playing only four games, losing last week in a game they led late. There are some other surprises in the early season numbers as the 1-4 Chicago Bears currently rate as the #2 yards per play offense in the NFL, behind only Atlanta. That comes a week after posting huge numbers against the Colts. The Colts are only the second worst yards per play defense in the NFL however as 4-1 Oakland is at the bottom, allowing 7.0 yards per play for the worst mark in the league by half a yard despite the success in the standings. A +7 turnover margin has helped the Raiders with several close wins and it is no surprise that Minnesota and Buffalo, the top two turnover margin teams in the league, are also having success despite limited offensive numbers. Minnesota s offense has scored only 18 points per game this season despite being the only undefeated team in the league as two defensive touchdowns and two punt return touchdowns have helped the cause, along with the top yards per play defense in the NFL. Houston s loss last week to Navy certainly drops the Cougars out of the College Football Playoff conversation and it may push Louisville out as well. The Cardinals could have used their late season meeting with the Cougars as a springboard to a real conversation about two ACC teams getting into the four-team field. Now that path looks much more difficult and the odds of Clemson losing two ACC games to put Louisville back in the race certainly look slim. The hopes for the Pac-12 now rest squarely on Washington, currently the only team from the conference ranked in the top 20 of the polls. Washington passed big tests the past two weeks with flying colors but the second half schedule features some challenging games as running the table still looks like a long shot for the Huskies. The conference is certainly in better shape than the Big XII however as undefeated Baylor has a long ways to go with all the tough conference games still ahead. West Virginia might actually have a better shot than Baylor as crazy as that sounds as the Mountaineers have most of the tough games at home. The SEC and Big Ten will be on center stage this week with crossover games that could have a big impact at Ohio State visits Wisconsin and Alabama visits Tennessee in top 10 clashes. Alabama will then face undefeated Texas A&M next week in a more important game in the SEC West before facing LSU. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. 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2 COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 COLORADO (-10) over Arizona State RATING 4 NORTH CAROLINA (+7½) over Miami, FL RATING 3 TOLEDO (-26) over Bowling Green RATING 2 COLORADO STATE (+29) over Boise State RATING 2 GEORGIA TECH (-10) over Georgia Southern RATING 1 SOUTHERN MISS (+24½) over Lsu RATING 1 TEXAS (-13½) over Iowa State ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2016 Appalachian State (-11) UL-LAFAYETTE 7:00 PM Appalachian State remains the clear favorite in the Sun Belt with a long break after its first conference game. Last season the Mountaineers won 28-7 in this matchup despite a few turnovers and Appalachian State also won with relative ease in Lafayette two years ago. At 2-3 after splitting two conference tests the Ragin Cajuns have an uphill battle to return to the postseason, ending a run of four straight 9-4 campaigns with a 4-8 mark in The Ragin Cajuns have not often been a home underdog with this being just the fourth instance in five+ seasons for Mark Hudspeth with the program. Appalachian State hasn t been as formidable as last season statistically and the Ragin Cajuns actually hold an excellent run defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. Look for the underdog to be a threat at home as a team averaging just 23 points per game looks risky laying doubledigits on the road this week. APP STATE BY 7 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2016 Navy (NL) EAST CAROLINA This game has been postponed to November 19 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2016 LOUISVILLE (-32) Duke 6:30 PM The Cardinals have had two weeks to unpack emotionally after the amazing September start came to a halt at Clemson. The Cardinals figure to be heavily favored in every remaining game until a November trip to Houston in what may no longer be a key game looking towards the College Football Playoff. Louisville can continue to build on its amazing statistics to keep its hopes as a one-loss squad with some momentum. Duke hasn t faced Louisville since the Cardinals joined the ACC and in the last road game for the Blue Devils they stunned Notre Dame. This figures to be the biggest underdog spread for Duke since they appeared in the ACC title game vs. the eventual national champion Florida State in Duke caught several big breaks in a sloppy win over Army last week and the Cardinals now know they need style points to get back into the national picture as the late season game with Houston won t be worth as much as it looked like it would be two ACC teams in the picture is a tough sell. LOUISVILLE BY 35 Memphis (-11) TULANE 7:00 PM Tulane has featured a formidable defense allowing only 22 points per game this season and with three wins in the first season under Willie Fritz, the Wave have matched last season s win count. The wins haven t come against quality competition but Tulane did play close in both losses as all four FBS games for the Wave been decided by seven or fewer points. Tulane s game last week was postponed as the team has a bit of extra time ahead of this matchup. Memphis won last season in this matchup at home and the Tigers managed to rally back to beat Temple last week despite trailing 13-0 and managing only a pair of field goals in the first 40+ minutes of the game. Memphis was soundly out-gained in that win and the 4-1 Tigers don t resemble last season s excellent team even though this year s team has a chance to have a similar winning record this season. MEMPHIS BY 7 BYU (-7½) Mississippi State 9:15 PM Both teams had big tests last week with BYU at Michigan State and Mississippi State hosting Auburn. These teams have combined for five losses by three or fewer points and it would foolish to expect anything other than a tight game for squads that rated almost identically by most metrics before last week. Last week s results featured a comeback win for BYU while the Bulldogs were blown out at home and value could be with the SEC road underdog as this line is likely twice as high as it would have been before those outcomes. Winning at Michigan State sounds impressive but it was a 3-point game into the 4th quarter and the Spartans didn t take advantage of a shaky BYU pass defense. Mississippi State was out-gained by only a modest margin despite the blowout score last week. These teams seem to find themselves in close games most weeks. BYU BY 3 San Diego State (-17½) FRESNO STATE 9:00 PM The Aztecs are a top 20 team nationally in yards per carry on both sides of the ball but the pass defense has been vulnerable with some big plays allowed in the loss to South Alabama as well as the narrow win over Cal. Last season the Aztecs won 21-7 but Fresno State had won the three previous meetings. At 1-5 it has been a rough season for the Bulldogs but there have been some competitive performances. The Bulldogs nearly beat Tulsa in its lone FBS home game and this squad was a lesser home underdog in games vs. Nebraska and Utah the past two seasons while holding a strong S/U home record under Tim DeRuyter. SDSU BY 10 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2016 Western Michigan (-10½) AKRON It looks possible that these teams could meet again in December for the MAC Championship but one squad will take its first conference loss this week. With Houston falling last week Western Michigan might have a shot to move up in the Group of 5 pecking order with a 6-0 start that includes wins over a pair of Big Ten teams. The past two weeks featured wins over chief division rivals as this is a potentially dangerous game for the Broncos. Akron went without QB Thomas Woodson again last week and failed to top 300 yards but it was enough to pull away for a win as two late short field scores held off an upset risk. The statistical profiles are fairly similar and if Woodson is back the Zips are a threat to stay close. WESTERN MICHIGAN BY 9 OHIO (-8½) Eastern Michigan 1:00 PM The Bobcats moved to 2-0 in MAC play last week although a 20-point lead came in jeopardy late in the game. With four wins Eastern Michigan is in the midst of a breakthrough season but it seems likely they will fall to 4-4 with tough road games the next two weeks. Last week s loss to Toledo was a competitive showing however as the Eagles have climbed out of the MAC basement where they resided most of the last decade. Ohio is allowing just 2.8 yards per rush this season as the ground game edge for the Bobcats should be substantial. Coming off a homecoming win over a Bowling Green squad that has won the MAC East the past three seasons makes this is a bit of a dangerous spot for a limited offense to lay points. OHIO BY 6 TOLEDO (-26) Bowling Green Bowling Green has been in the MAC title game the past three seasons but Toledo is the one team that handled the Falcons with wins in six straight games in this series. This is homecoming for Toledo after a pair of road games and the only loss for the Rockets this season came by two points at BYU as this is an impressive team. At 1-5 Bowling Green is having a challenging transition season and last week s six-point loss wasn t actually that close. This will be a second straight road game and the Falcons are in the bottom six nationally in yards per play on both sides of the ball while also holding the worst turnover margin in the country. TOLEDO BY 35 Ball State (-9½) BUFFALO In a 1-4 start Buffalo has been outscored by 83 points and the lone win over Army at home featured a miraculous comeback. Against marginal competition the Bulls haven t been competitive the past two games including an ugly homecoming showing last week with a 24-point defeat though a fumble return touchdown was the key play in a game that was close statistically. 0-2 in MAC play, this is a big game for Ball State who has battled well in its losses while facing four of five FBS games on the road this season. That doesn t change this week for a fifth road game in seven weeks. Ball State s pass defense has shown some vulnerability though a Buffalo offense completing below 50 percent of its passes and posting just 5.2 yards per attempt in the air is hard to support. BALL STATE BY 14 SOUTH FLORIDA (-19) Connecticut South Florida is gaining some momentum at 5-1 with the only loss coming to Florida State. Next week s game at Temple is critical in the East standings with the Bulls surviving last week s homecoming game with East Carolina, winning by 16 but caught in a tight game late. Connecticut upset Cincinnati last week with a great defensive performance and this has been a very tight series with each of the last nine meetings settled by eight or fewer points. A limited Huskies offense posted 528 yards against the Bulls last season but this could also be a flat spot for Connecticut facing two high profile games the past two weeks in splitting vs. Houston and Cincinnati. South Florida has great offensive numbers in the running game but this is a fierce Connecticut run defense that could come up with a solid game plan. USF BY 13 Louisiana Tech (-15½) MASSACHUSETTS The Bulldogs are 3-3 with several wild high scoring affairs, riding a two-game winning streak into this long road trip but Louisiana Tech is 0-3 S/U on the road. 1-5 Massachusetts has been reasonably competitive through a schedule that has featured three power conference teams as the defense has allowed fewer than 30 points per game. Keeping Louisiana Tech below that mark will be a challenge and this is a Gillette Stadium game for a lesser home field advantage. Louisiana Tech has allowed over 68 percent completions to opponents this season and the Minutemen do have 11 passing touchdowns this season for a capable attack. This feels like a steep price for the Bulldogs with long travel and cool conditions. LA TECH BY 13

3 Virginia Tech (-19) SYRACUSE 2:45 PM Both of these ACC squads made off-season coaching changes and Virginia Tech has received strong early returns with a 4-1 start after last week s huge win at North Carolina with the Hokies handling challenging conditions much better to take control of the Coastal Division. With a showdown with Miami up next this is could be a dangerous spot as a road favorite taking on an offense that can produce. The defensive numbers are rough for Syracuse this season incorporating an up-tempo style that Dino Babers had great success with at Bowling Green. The Orange did win at Connecticut and the schedule has been grueling, with last week s ugly 9-point showing certainly impacted by the challenging weather. The Hokies will likely see its great pass defense numbers slide but the Hokies should also have big numbers. VT BY 24 CENTRAL FLORIDA (-3) Temple 6:30 PM The Knights got an unexpected off week last week as Hurricane Matthew called off the matchup with Tulane. Extra rest ahead of homecoming could help UCF continue a big bounce-back season. Temple won in this matchup last season with the Knights held to only 134 yards and the Owls have been formidable on defense again this season. Temple enters this game off a very tough Thursday night loss as they led Memphis early before allowing 31 points in about 14 minutes of game clock with kickoff and interception return touchdowns included. The Owls held a good Tigers offense to just 323 yards in the defeat but this situation might favor an upstart team that hasn t had a home game in nearly a month. UCF BY 6 Iowa (-12½) PURDUE It has not been an impressive showing for Iowa this season but sneaking out a pair of 14-7 wins in Big Ten play keeps the Hawkeyes a threat to take the West division again. This is a second straight road game after a narrow comeback win at Minnesota last week and the lack of offense has been alarming as the defense has needed every stop it has gotten in a 4-2 start vs. a rather weak first half schedule. Purdue hasn t had a winning record this late into the season since 2012 and last week s win over Illinois was just the third Big Ten win for the Boilermakers. There won t likely be great homecoming fanfare and last season Purdue lost by 20 in this matchup for a narrow cover, actually out-gaining Iowa in the process. Don t expect Iowa to snap back to last season s great form anytime soon. IOWA BY 7 MARYLAND (-4) Minnesota A Gophers season that started 3-0 has Minnesota sitting at 0-2 in Big Ten play in what looked like a season of opportunity in the Big Ten West race with a favorable schedule. The losses the last two weeks have featured blown 4th quarter leads as the offense continues to struggle in the passing game. A 4-0 start for Maryland went up in smoke with a lopsided loss at Penn State last week and comparing the results the past two weeks vs. the same opponent in the same venue paints a favorable picture for the Gophers with Maryland out-gained by 252 more yards than Minnesota. Minnesota is also 9-3 ATS as a road dog the past three+ seasons. MINNESOTA BY 3 Illinois (NL) RUTGERS Rutgers has lost by a combined score of the past two weeks and the offensive production last week was historically bad with only two first downs. The Knights did play Iowa tough at home and beat New Mexico as well as statistically competing well with Washington as this team can t be as bad as last week s 78-0 loss looks. Illinois is yet to win a FBS game under Lovie Smith with four straight defeats and while the first three misses came vs. quality foes, losing at home to Purdue isn t forgivable. Wes Lunt was injured in the first half but his replacement played well as the defense has to shoulder most of the blame. Pick your poison in this basement battle in the Big Ten but value is likely with the Knights. RUTGERS BY 3 TEXAS (-13½) Iowa State While close losses can count as moral victories for an Iowa State program stuck towards the bottom of the Big XII in a transition season, at a program like Texas that won t do. The Longhorns competed well last week but ultimately couldn t keep up with Oklahoma and the game didn t wind up as close as the five-point final margin. At 2-3 and 0-2 in Big XII play this game certainly is of the must-win variety for Texas, especially following last season s stunning 24-0 loss in Ames last season. Iowa State is just 1-4 but the Cyclones have given Baylor and Oklahoma State great games the past two weeks, posting 42 and 31 points and holding late leads. Allowing 5.6 yards per rush also a concern for ISU in this matchup. TEXAS BY 24 MIAMI, FL (-7½) North Carolina North Carolina had a to deal with a different type of hurricane last week and it took a heavy toll on a pass-oriented offense in an ugly loss to Virginia Tech as a 10-game ACC regular season winning streak was snapped. Miami fell just short in a huge rivalry game last week as a 4-0 start could slip away quickly with a very tough October schedule. Last season UNC won in this matchup though turnovers played a big role. Expect North Carolina to fight to the end with an offense that can score in a hurry as the underdog points look favorable. Miami statistics were dominant in the first month but the schedule deserves great scrutiny and this and the home favorite track record is rough for a consistently overvalued program. This will be by far the best passing team Miami has faced this season. UNC BY 4 CLEMSON (-16½) NC State Any early season doubts about Clemson s offense have been erased with 42 and 56 points the past two weeks. At 6-0 this home game is ahead of a bye week that precedes the big Atlantic clash with Florida State. Three and a half seasons in Raleigh Dave Doeren has had mostly mediocre results but the Wolfpack got a signature win last week over Notre Dame with the hurricane conditions certainly helping the cause in containing the Irish offense. NC State scored 41 points in this matchup last season but two years ago lost 41-0 at Clemson. The road underdog track record for NC State is promising historically but this doesn t look like an ideal spot. CLEMSON BY 23 MICHIGAN STATE (-4½) Northwestern The Spartans hadn t lost three straight games since 2009 but it is shaping up to be quite a fall for a squad that won the Big Ten last season. The defense still looks capable but against a BYU defense that has allowed the nation s highest completion percentage the Spartans managed just 121 passing yards with a necessary quarterback change finally made as junior Damion Terry finished the game, though with no better results. Northwestern has had two weeks to prepare for this game following the big win at Iowa. This line is certainly much lower than would have been expected early in the season but the road underdog track record for the Wildcats is impressive. NW BY 3 OKLAHOMA (-10) Kansas State Bill Snyder and Kansas State have done very well in this series including a 14-2 ATS mark in Norman going back to Both teams got wins last week in conference play and this is the first conference home game for Oklahoma. Kansas State was out-gained in last week s win as they had interception return and kickoff return touchdowns but Kansas State has allowed just 2.9 yards per rush for one of the best averages in the nation and Oklahoma has allowed 86 points despite being 2-0 in Big XII play as there are some serious concerns with a team that has already disappointed with a 3-2 start to the season. Kansas State seems to find ways to hang around and this is certainly a possible flat spot for the Sooners. OKLAHOMA BY 7 Nebraska (-6½) INDIANA The Cornhuskers are the only remaining unbeaten team in the Big Ten West and Nebraska has had two weeks to prepare for this road test looking to extend its division lead knowing the late season road games will be challenging. Nebraska has closed out games this season to score a few fortunate covers as the overall scoring numbers are a bit misleading and the schedule deserves some scrutiny with the narrow win over Oregon taking a heavy devaluation in recent weeks. Indiana battled pretty well with Ohio State last week in a 21-point defeat in Columbus, within seven well into the third quarter with reasonably close production numbers. This is homecoming in Bloomington in a season where there is something to cheer about and the Hoosiers look like a threat in this matchup. NEBRASKA BY 1 FLORIDA (-14) Missouri 3:00 PM The Gators didn t get to host LSU last week with the game cancelled for the moment and this homecoming game will be the only game in Gainesville in a nearly two-month stretch. Last season Florida beat Missouri 21-3 in a defensive battle but Missouri won the previous two meetings in this series. Missouri also has had two weeks in between games after an ugly start to the SEC season with a pair of defeats. The offense has certainly shown some promise in the first season under Barry Odom but the program has been led by its defense in a successful move to the SEC and the numbers have been shaky, particularly against the run. Florida is allowing just 2.5 yards per rush this season and in four of five games Florida has held its foe to seven or fewer points but against mostly light competition. FLORIDA BY 10 LSU (-24½) Southern Mississippi 6:30 PM Game one post-les Miles went well and the second effort was put on hold last week. This awkward non-conference game should mean more for the visiting Golden Eagles as the smaller school in the region and Southern Miss has scored over 40 points per game while also picking up a SEC win already this season. Overall the 4-2 start has been a bit disappointing for a team that had a great run last year as the losses have come to Troy and Texas San Antonio and Nick Mullens has already thrown eight interceptions. Still he is the type of passer that Tiger fans wonder why they can t get in Baton Rouge, overlooked in recruiting with a smaller stature. LSU has an excellent run defense but that isn t like a huge factor this week and ahead of facing Ole Miss next week the Tigers may not be perfectly sharp. LSU BY 16 Pittsburgh (-5) VIRGINIA 11:30 AM There are only four teams without an ACC loss and Virginia is one of them despite starting the season 0-3 in non-conference action. An off week after back-to-back wins should have the Cavaliers in position for a strong showing this week for homecoming vs. a Pittsburgh team they lost to narrowly last season. Pittsburgh has featured some wild finishes this season in a 4-2 start with four games decided by seven or fewer points including holding on last week vs. Georgia Tech. The Panthers have been a viable road team in recent years but they aren t normally favored and Virginia is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2014 including this season s win over Central Michigan. Both teams have been tough vs. the run on defense but Pittsburgh is allowing over 66 percent passing, 120th in the nation. PITT BY 1

4 TEXAS TECH (-1½) West Virginia The Mountaineers remain the ultimate sleeper in the Big XII with three quality wins already this season heading into a favorable conference schedule with most of the big games at home. This is a big road test vs. a dangerous Red Raiders offense. Patrick Mahomes wound up playing last week and producing big numbers but Texas Tech wound up a few points short at Kansas State, the team the Mountaineers also soundly out-gained but barely beat in their last game. West Virginia has held foes to below 48 percent passing this season for the fifth best rate in the nation as this could be a good matchup for the Mountaineers who appear improved on defense. Texas Tech has surrendered 5.4 yards per rush this season and 6.3 yards per play as the opportunities for the underdog will be plenty. WV BY 4 Air Force (-13½) New Mexico At the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas After big wins at Utah State and over Navy Air Force suffered a letdown loss last week at Wyoming, falling in a game that was rarely that close as the Falcons made a late rally. Air Force has featured one of top run defenses in the nation, only trailing Alabama at 2.4 yards per rush allowed. That will be important in this matchup with New Mexico being one of the top rushing teams in the country. Last season New Mexico upset Air Force in the regular season finale 47-35, a game that clinched a bowl bid for the Lobos and was meaningless for the Falcons who had already clinched their division. This will be a third away game in four weeks for the Falcons and while New Mexico impressed with 382 rushing yards vs. Boise State last week that type of production looks unlikely in this matchup. AIR FORCE BY 17 HOUSTON (-20) Tulsa The Cougars had no margin of error to stay on the national stage and a team that has been so good in the turnover department in recent seasons had some big mistakes last week in an upset loss at Navy. College Football Playoff hopes are certainly gone and it will be an uphill battle in the AAC West race as they ll need some help to get back in the picture. Tulsa is quietly 4-1, sitting on the right side of high scoring shootouts the past two games including a win last Friday in overtime. Last season Houston responded well to its only loss with a 21-point win over ironically Navy and the game with Tulsa early last season was a close call with a result though the Cougars had nearly 700 yards in the game. Big production is again likely though Tulsa has backdoor cover potential. HOUSTON BY 21 MARSHALL (-11½) Florida Atlantic The Owls have lost five in a row with a demoralizing defeat vs. Charlotte last week in a game that got moved to Sunday morning. Two defeats came by slim margins and having faced Miami and Kansas State weighs on the numbers. Marshall has been a very successful program in recent years but at 1-4 it has been a tough 2016 season that included a 0-1 start in league play. Marshall has already lost twice at home this season while allowing 41 points per game on the season. Marshall has been one of the worst rushing teams in the nation as a shaky run defense for the Owls isn t likely to be taxed too severely this week. Marshall has a great track record in Huntington but this year s team has not looked up to the task. MARSHALL BY 7 GEORGIA TECH (-10) Georgia Southern 11:30 AM Georgia Southern lost by a point in primetime last Wednesday night, failing to win despite a 5-0 turnover advantage. The 3-0 start looks a bit suspicious for the Eagles at this point and this will be a tough matchup as Georgia Tech will be focused riding three consecutive defeats. The Eagles did take Georgia to overtime last season and lost by just four in Atlanta two years ago vs. the Yellow Jackets but this year s team is in a transition season that has featured a decline for the offensive production despite a rather soft first half slate so far. Georgia Tech has already had to play four ACC games as it has been a demanding schedule and the Yellow Jackets should make the most of this opportunity to get back on track. GEORGIA TECH BY 17 TROY (-16) Georgia State Georgia State finally got in the win column last week but this is a dangerous 1-4 team that played very close with Wisconsin and Appalachian State. Troy has looked like one of the more improved teams in the nation and a serious contender in the Sun Belt, already 2-0 in league play. At 4-1 a win at Southern Miss stands out but most impressive was a loss at Clemson that was a very competitive game with one of the nation s top teams. The offense has much more balance than Georgia State but Troy has also been a fortunate team with some big turnover breaks. TROY BY 13 ARKANSAS STATE (-6) South Alabama Arkansas State didn t have a sharp performance at home on Wednesday night but the Red Wolves were productive and found a way to win despite five turnovers. While Arkansas State was swept in non-conference action at 1-0 in Sun Belt play the Red Wolves are still alive to defend their title. South Alabama has had the opposite start, going 0-2 in league games but with a pair of impressive non-conference wins, beating Mississippi State and San Diego State in big upsets. The Jaguars are one of the worst rushing teams in the nation but last season the numbers were close aside from turnovers in a loss hosting this matchup. ARKANSAS STATE BY 3 Texas San Antonio (-3½) RICE Rice has allowed over 40 points per game in an ugly 0-5 start to the season that has featured a 0-3 start in Conference USA. The Owls have a good track record at home historically and have had extra time to prepare for this game, a matchup they lost last season. Texas San Antonio has been fairly impressive in a 2-3 start, nearly upsetting Arizona State and then last week beating 2015 West division champion Southern Miss at home. There isn t a lot to like about what Rice has done this season but the team has its back against the wall in a favorable opportunity at home catching the Roadrunners coming off a big upset that was turnover-aided. RICE BY 3 Central Michigan (-3) NORTHERN ILLINOIS These squads were among four teams tied on top of the MAC West last season with Northern Illinois getting the tiebreaker to the MAC Championship game. Central Michigan won the head-to-head matchup with a result early in the season in a game where both offenses struggled. After a 0-4 start the Huskies have split the past two games with a win at Ball State and a competitive loss at Western Michigan last week, a one-point game late in the third quarter before the Broncos pulled away. After losing their quarterback early in the season the Huskies seem to be finding some rhythm again with option #3 senior Anthony Maddie. Central Michigan squeaked out a win over the Ball State team that NIU beat, getting a fourth quarter interception return touchdown that was the difference in the game. Given Central Michigan s preference to throw, the Huskies look like a home underdog with a potential rushing edge, while holding a great home dog history. NIU BY 3 Kent State (NL) MIAMI, OH 1:30 PM Noah Wezensky had a couple of costly turnovers last week filling in at quarterback for Miami. The Redhawks were close with Akron last week into the second half but couldn t overcome the late mistakes for another competitive showing but ultimately a 0-6 start Kent State is another team that has outperformed its record to a degree as the Flashes nearly beat Akron as well and played close with Penn State in the opening week. Kent State won last season at home in this matchup for one of just two FBS wins last season. Miami had more yards in the game as has been the case more than a few times for the Redhawks in an underachieving run for Chuck Martin in two and a half seasons. Miami will have value but trusting the team at a price where they might need to actually win is a big risk. KENT STATE BY 4 Alabama (-12½) TENNESSEE The Volunteers again fell behind early last week only to dig out of the hole in dramatic fashion but the magic ran out in overtime for the first loss of the season. Tennessee s SEC East lead could be lost unless they unseat the #1 team in the nation. Alabama has seven defensive touchdowns and two special teams touchdowns this season as two non-offensive scores last week helped the Tide pull away at Arkansas. There is reason to be a bit suspicious of Alabama s schedule as they struggled with Old Miss, clearly the top team they have faced this season, and the next three games will be the biggest of the season for the team. Tennessee has played very close in this matchup the past two seasons including a loss last season. Alabama hasn t lost in Knoxville since 2006 but this will be a daunting second straight road game for the Tide with a Tennessee squad that continues to find ways to get back into games. Arkansas showed there is room to throw against the Tide as Tennessee could have an opportunity but significant injuries continue to pile up for the Volunteers through a demanding schedule. ALABAMA BY 14 Mississippi (-7½) ARKANSAS Ole Miss has had two weeks to prepare for this game, a revenge set after the overtime defeat at home last season 53-52, featuring one of the more miraculous plays of the season for the Razorbacks. This will be the first true road game for the Rebels however and Hugh Freeze owns a losing S/U record in road games in four+ seasons with the team. Arkansas gave #1 Alabama a strong effort last week but too many turnovers turned into big plays. The Razorbacks have covered in each of the last three meetings in this series but allowing 6.1 yards per rush is certainly a concern for the defense, currently only better than Rutgers nationally. Mississippi has struggled against the pass a bit this season however and that is where Arkansas has mostly attacked this season with Austin Allen already throwing 15 touchdown passes and for over 1,600 yards. OLE MISS BY 1 GEORGIA (-14½) Vanderbilt Georgia had to play on Sunday after the matchup with South Carolina faced challenging weather Saturday and the Bulldogs managed to get back on track after a pair of losses. Vanderbilt is winless in three SEC tries but the losses have all come by seven or fewer points. The Commodores have covered in the past three meetings in this series but they are often receiving more points, playing at +33½ in the last trip to Athens in Vanderbilt owns a formidable defense but in four games vs. major conference teams the team has posted a grand total of just 36 points. This will be a second straight road game and the short week for Georgia isn t a huge disadvantage. Georgia has had to go against a schedule filled with great offensive teams as this should be one of the best matchups for the defense all season. Freshman quarterback Jacob Eason has had rather mixed results with virtually no success last week but the potential is there. GEORGIA BY 17

5 COLORADO (-10) Arizona State 3:30 PM These squads faced off with the Los Angeles schools last week with a narrow loss for Colorado at USC and a narrow win for Arizona State hosting UCLA. Brady White played well in his first start but his injury this week puts the Sun Devils in a tough spot coming up against a tough offense with these teams currently tied on top of the Pac-12 South standings. Colorado was outplayed by a far greater margin than the final score last week at USC as while the Buffaloes were a good story in the first month they still have a lot of work to do to earn that coveted bowl bid as there are no easyouts in the Pac-12 schedule. Arizona State s defense made some big plays last week but the offense could really struggle to keep up this week and last year s win for ASU was a bit misleading. COLORADO BY 24 BAYLOR (-34½) Kansas Kansas took a lead into the fourth quarter last week vs. TCU, posting a yardage edge. The Jayhawks couldn t close out the game however and this week s matchup figures to be far more challenging. Baylor had a flat performance in its last game but managed to slip away with a victory to remain the Big XII s best hope for a player in the national picture. A sharp performance out of the bye week isn t a certainty however as this homecoming game is ahead of a bye week as well for a big lull in the schedule before heavyweight matchups in the final six weeks. Baylor has won by huge margins in the last four meetings in this series including a 66-7 blowout last season in Lawrence. Kansas isn t likely to have the same type of showing this week but the spread will be steep. BAYLOR BY 38 FLORIDA STATE (-22½) Wake Forest It hasn t been often that Wake Forest has had a better record than Florida State when these teams have met but the Demon Deacons sit at 5-1, handling the elements much better than Syracuse last week. Most of the wins have come in tight games vs. mediocre competition as this will be a big jump in class. It is hardly an ideal spot for Florida State however with a run of big games of the last month including a comeback win Saturday night over Miami. Next on the schedule is a bye week but then the season-making opportunity against Clemson. Last season Florida State struggled in this matchup with just a win as the Demon Deacons actually out-gained the Seminoles. Wake Forest is facing third road game in four weeks and the dramatic run defense edge for the underdog is derived from greatly contrasting schedules. FLORIDA STATE BY 27 Florida International (-5) CHARLOTTE 5:00 PM FIU deserved better in its 0-4 start and while it took a coaching change the Panthers are turning things around with back-to-back wins. They catch Charlotte picking up its first Conference USA win last week and with the 49ers facing a short week after having to move their home game to Sunday. The 49ers barely held on vs. Florida Atlantic as a touchdown as time expired for the Owls was ruled out of bounds on review after Charlotte fumbled trying to run out the clock. Last season FIU posted 48 points in this matchup and this is a team that was expected to compete well this season and is starting to realize that potential after some tough breaks in the first month. FIU BY 10 MID TENNESSEE STATE (-1) Western Kentucky 1:30 PM Middle Tennessee State can move into control of the East division of Conference USA with a win this week. The Blue Raiders have good numbers in a 4-1 start this season though the schedule hasn t been very demanding. Western Kentucky is just 3-3 following last season s great campaign and two losses have come by very slim margins. The Hilltoppers won by 30 in this matchup last season but two years ago the Blue Raiders won in tripleovertime at home in this matchup. Expecting a back-and-forth affair is reasonable with two very productive offensives facing off. The rested Blue Raiders might have an opportunity in a favorable situation. MTSU BY 7 UL-MONROE (-7) Texas State The Warhawks have gone 0-4 in FBS games this season but two losses came by very slim margins and the other two came in SEC road games. Texas State had a big opening week win over Ohio but little has gone right since other than a FCS win over Incarnate Word with the Bobcats also taking on some tough matchups. Texas State won just three times last season with one of those wins in a 16-3 result at home vs. UL-Monroe. That was a Warhawks team that had mailed in the season however with a coaching change coming. After last week s heartbreaking loss expect an inspired homecoming outing from the Warhawks. UL-M BY 10 NOTRE DAME (-2½) Stanford 6:30 PM The Irish were dealt tough conditions last week and the 2-4 start is tough to swallow in South Bend with a daunting schedule remaining. Stanford s season has also dissolved with a pair of lopsided Pac-12 defeats the past two weeks. Expected to be a top rushing squad the Cardinal are posting just 4.1 yards per rush and the defense is clearly not at the same level as past recent seasons, having allowed 86 points the past two weeks. Stanford only has one win in the last 10 trips to Notre Dame and while there few strong points for the Cardinal, at least Notre Dame s offense offers some potential as Stanford s offense is only gaining 5.0 yards per play with a great struggle at quarterback. Statistically Notre Dame s defense is actually stronger which is hard to believe if you ve watched the Irish. NOTRE DAME BY 7 Ohio State (-10½) WISCONSIN 7:00 PM While Wisconsin s big wins over LSU and Michigan State have diminished a bit the 14-7 loss at Michigan looks pretty impressive even though the Badgers didn t get much going on offense in that game. The task is severe this week but with two weeks to prepare for the biggest home game in several years at Camp Randall. Ohio State has won seven of the last eight meetings with only two missed covers but they are just 2-1 in Madison in that run with the wins by just three and seven points. Wisconsin hasn t been a home underdog since beating the Buckeyes in 2010, with Ohio State the top ranked team in the nation. Ohio State hasn t a faced a remotely good defense yet this season and the team looked a bit more ordinary last week in a win over Indiana with the Hoosiers within seven in the second half and the Buckeyes fortunate in field position for most of the touchdown drives. The Buckeyes could be one of the nation s best but through a big-game schedule Wisconsin has more than held its own. OSU BY 3 IDAHO (-4) New Mexico State 4:00 PM New Mexico State was off last week after picking up a win in Sun Belt play. The defense has very poor numbers but the up-tempo passing attack can do some damage if turnovers are avoided. Idaho is 3-3 for an encouraging start to the season but all three wins have come by just three points including late heroics last week for a road win. Last season New Mexico State won in overtime in this matchup with over 600 yards of offense and big numbers look possible on both sides again. IDAHO BY 1 WASHINGTON STATE (-4½) Ucla 8:30 PM While the Huskies are getting most of the headlines in the Evergreen State Washington State is making some waves with lopsided wins over Oregon and Stanford the past two weeks as well. The Cougars have great offensive potential as usual but a capable defense makes WSU a real contender in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA lost at Arizona State last week and it has been a sharp sophomore slump for quarterback Josh Rosen but the lack of a running game is a bigger culprit for the struggles of the Bruins as only five teams in the nation are gaining fewer yards per carry than UCLA. Washington State won last season at the Rose Bowl though the Bruins had big numbers in that game. A letdown is possible for the Cougars off a big win but this is hardly a great spot for a struggling Bruins team. WSU BY 7 Usc (-7½) ARIZONA Quarterback injuries have plagued both Arizona schools this season but Brandon Dawkins did play most of the way last week in the loss at Utah, a game Arizona led 14-3 early. The Wildcats have had some ATS success in this series as each of the last eight meetings have been decided by eight or fewer points. USC s tough start to the season has the team a bit outside the radar as the Trojans were more dominant than the score in last week s win over Colorado and USC deserved better in narrow losses to Stanford and Utah, 3-3 through a schedule with only quality opposition. Arizona did give highly ranked Washington a great battle in its only Pac-12 home game so far as the Wildcats will score an upset at some point this season. USC BY 3 BOISE STATE (-29) Colorado State 9:15 PM Colorado State had a great second half rally last week to beat Utah State, while reaching 3-3. The Rams lost by 31 in this matchup at home last season with Boise State more than doubling the yardage production. The 5-0 Broncos didn t have much trouble last week in a revenge spot and this could be a bit of a flat spot on the schedule ahead of next week s game with BYU, clearly the toughest remaining game for the Broncos. The well regarded home track record for the Broncos has passed a tipping point as Boise State has been a terrible ATS home team the last few seasons with greatly inflated prices and this looks like an example. BOISE STATE BY 19 Utah (-10½) OREGON STATE 9:00 PM Gary Andersen has Oregon State heading in the right direction and last week s win over Cal was a big milestone for the team to get a conference win in a very challenging league. The Beavers also played Minnesota and Boise State tough this season as they won t be as easy of an out this year. Utah s only loss came narrowly at Cal but the Utes bounced back last week even with a slow start. Winning on the road is never a given for the Utes but this is a strong defensive team that catches OSU riding high. UTAH BY 14 SAN JOSE STATE (-2) Nevada 9:30 PM San Jose State won a bowl game last season as a 1-5 start this season has been very disappointing. After losing to Nevada in overtime last season this will be a game the Spartans want to get and Nevada s 3-3 start hasn t been that much more impressive. Both run defenses have been terrible this season but the Wolf Pack are better equipped to use that opportunity as only a few teams are worse on the ground than SJSU. NEVADA BY 3 HAWAI I (-7) Unlv 10:00 PM UNLV draws a second straight road game with a long trip to the islands, a matchup the Rebels won last season. Hawai i is looking like a different team this season with back-to-back conference wins and a formidable running game sparked by sophomore Dru Brown at quarterback. UNLV is a gaining 5.7 yards per rush however as the ground edge will be with the road team in this matchup with Hawai i allowing nearly 6.0 yards per rush. Hawai i should still be tough to trust laying points. HAWAI I BY 3

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