2017/2018 DIVISION /PREVIEWS REVIEW

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1 2017/2018 DIVISION REVIEW /PREVIEWS

2 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: AFC East Joe Dolan published on February 07, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Buffalo Bills (9-7; 2nd in AFC East) QUARTERBACKS Tyrod Taylor It s easy to feel bad for Taylor. Under the new regime of GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott, it s pretty obvious to see that Taylor was not in the club s long-term plans. That was even more blatantly obvious this past off-season, when the Bills let Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin walk in free agency, while waiting until August to deal away Sammy Watkins. While the Bills drafted Zay Jones traded for Jordan Matthews, and then acquired Kelvin Benjamin midseason, Taylor was obviously shorthanded compared to past years. In 15 games, missing one with a knee injury, Taylor posted 263/420 passing for 2799 yards (62.6%, 6.7 YPA). He threw 14 TDs and just 4 INT, while adding 84/427/4 rushing to ]nish FPG, which ranked him 24 th among QBs. In his three years as Buffalo s starting QB, Taylor has thrown just 16 INT total, a number that wouldn t even have led the NFL this season alone (DeShone Kizer threw 22). But with Taylor s remarkable ability to avoid turnovers comes a caveat he s one of the least aggressive throwers in the NFL, and has now frustrated multiple coaching staffs with his unwillingness to pull the trigger. That s why right or wrong he was benched at one point for Nathan Peterman. The Peterman experiment, of course, failed, but Taylor is not likely to be the Bills QB in 2018 regardless. Fantasy players will be upset, given Taylor ]nished as a top-12 QB in six of 14 starts, and he was always a guy you could draft late and get good fantasy production out of him. And we can certainly hear the argument that Taylor was strapped by his own team this year, both in the off-season moves made to decimate his receiving corps and the injuries the Bills couldn t have planned for. Taylor is one of those QBs who is in a weird spot he s almost certainly aoating around the top-20 to top-25 in the league at the position, but the Bills obviously feel that s not good enough to carry them. And indeed, Taylor did not play well in the Bills playoff loss to Jacksonville, before leaving the game late with a frightening concussion; we hope he s able to recover fully. If he moves on somewhere (the Bills can save big money by releasing him), we wouldn t be shocked to see him get a chance to compete for a starting job, but we d be surprised if he s in a Bill uniform in Nathan Peterman Peterman has become a punchline, and while we understand why, he was put in a tough position by his own team. The Bills, apparently dissatis]ed with Tyrod Taylor, opted to bench their veteran QB for the rookie ]fth-round pick Peterman in Week 11 against the Chargers excellent defense. It went worse than anyone could have possibly imagined Peterman went 6/14 for 66 yards in that game, but threw ]ve interceptions in one half of football. That s right. Peterman played one half in his ]rst career start and threw 5 INTs, one more INT than Taylor threw all season long. Now, Taylor s lack of aggressiveness as a thrower is a big reason he was benched in the ]rst place, but 5 INT in two quarters is not good. Now, to be fair to Peterman, he did start one other game in place of an injured Taylor, and it s impossible to truly evaluate him in that one. That s because he went 5/10 for 57 yards and a TD in a blizzard against the Colts. Unfortunately, his season ended on a bad note, as he replaced a concussed Taylor in the Bills playoff loss to the Jaguars, which ended on a Peterman interception. Peterman s limitations he has a popgun arm, to be kind are why he was a ]fth-round pick in the ]rst place, but we hope the youngster can bounce back from being put in a tough spot to at least be a decent NFL backup, which is what we always thought he would be. What is obvious, though, is that he certainly isn t the Bills QB of the future, whether or not Tyrod is. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Who will be the Bills starting QB in 2018 under new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll? RUNNING BACKS LeSean McCoy McCoy continues to have one of the most underrated careers in the NFL, despite rising to a level of superstardom with Philly; his star has waned a bit in Buffalo, to be expected, but he s still doing some awesome things. In 2017, McCoy was the key cog on a very limited Bills offense, but a Bills offense that still produced the club s ]rst playoff appearance since the Music City Miracle. Playing in all 16 games in 2017, McCoy posted 287/1138/6 rushing (4.0 YPC) and 59/448/2 receiving on 77 targets (76.6% catch rate, 7.6 YPR). He averaged FPG to rank 10th among RBs, and 9 th among RBs with ]ve or more appearances. McCoy fought through an ankle injury to play in the Bills playoff game, but stayed overall

3 remarkably healthy after an injury-plagued 2016, in which a bothersome hamstring hurt him for much of the year. All considered, McCoy has now put together eight consecutive seasons with 1000 or more yards from scrimmage, one of only two active streaks in the NFL of more than ]ve seasons Frank Gore (12) has the other. In his 16 games (he left Week 17 early with the ankle sprain), Shady posted eight games as a top-12 RB, and four more as a top-24 RB. In eight of his 16 games, he topped 100 yards from scrimmage. In ]ve of the eight games in which he didn t top 100 yards, he added at least 4 catches to his resume. In all, he played about 67% of the Bills offensive snaps, and made everything click for them. Oh, by the way, he also topped 10,000 career rushing yards in 2017, as he paves a potential path to Canton. He was as consistent as it gets, and the hope is the Bills improve around him this off-season. That said, McCoy s late-season ankle injury is going to be what a lot of people remember about this season, and given he ll be 30 with nearly 15,000 yards from scrimmage on his body, it wouldn t be shocking to see him slip into the third round in drafts come August. But he s de]ed logic before. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Where will McCoy go in fantasy drafts come August? Will the Bills add a back better suited to rotate with him than the likes of Mike Tolbert? Finishing 10th in PPR at 16.6 FPG, McCoy remarkably stayed healthy during 2017 and continued his streak of 8 seasons with yards from scrimmage. WIDE RECEIVERS Kelvin Benjamin Benjamin is one of the most hotly debated players in the NFL. The biggest question surrounding him: is he actually any good? This is a guy who had 1008 receiving yards as a rookie and had 941 receiving yards in 2016 after returning from an ACL tear, so typically it s hard to argue with production like that. But there is a legitimate argument to be made that Cam Newton s play has been better in his career without Benjamin, and a large part of his production has come because of volume. Benjamin, of course, had a bizarre season in In all, he played in 14 games, posting 48/692/3 on 78 targets (61.5% catch rate, 14.4 YPR). He averaged 9.66 FPG, which ranked him 50 th among WRs this year coincidentally, one spot behind Sammy Watkins, the player the Bills dealt away prior to the 2017 season that opened up a spot for their midseason trade for Benjamin. The Bills, perhaps surprised that they were competing for a playoff spot at the trade deadline, opted to move a 2018 third-round pick and a 2018 seventh-round pick for Benjamin. Things did not work out the way the Bills planned. First of all, Benjamin was dealing with knee problems all year, and missed multiple games. That didn t help. But he also struggled to adjust to the Buffalo offense. After averaging 59.4 yards per game in eight games with the Panthers (over which he ranked 32 nd with FPG), he managed just 16/217/1 on 27 targets in six games with the Bills, missing some time with the knee. In those six games, he averaged just 7.28 FPG, which ranked him 74 th at the position. Obviously, there are more factors at play than just his health Benjamin was learning a new system with a QB the Bills had no faith in. Those things absolutely factored into his struggles. It s also worth noting that Bill GM Brandon Beane and HC Sean McDermott were both with the Panthers when Benjamin was drafted, so there is obviously familiarity with his game, and those guys believe in him. But there is a good argument to be made that Benjamin is a big body who doesn t use his size well, is a poor route runner, and overall is one of the most inejcient receivers in football. His ]fth-year rookie option has been picked up, so he ll be a Bill next year, and we re intrigued to see what his ADP looks like in August. There are a lot of variables that haven t yet settled: he has a new OC and likely will have a new QB, for starters. Zay Jones It was not a good rookie season for Jones, to say the least. In 15 games, the rookie second-round pick out of East Carolina posted 27/316/2 receiving on 74 targets (36.5%, YPR). He averaged 4.71 FPG, which ranked him 105 th at the position. In his terribly unproductive rookie season, Jones posted one of seven seasons in NFL history for a rookie WR with 50 or more targets and a catch rate under 40%. It s not great company for Jones, there s no question about it. But is there an excuse? Though he was listed on the injury report only once missing Week 10 with an ankle injury he needed off-season shoulder surgery for a torn labrum. That s potentially a huge reason Jones struggled so much with drops, though there were communication issues as well. Jones had just three games Weeks 9 through 12 as a top-36 WR, and only once did he ]nish as a top-24 WR. It s worth noting that over his ]nal eight games of the year, Zay saw some slight improvement he posted 17/201/2 receiving on 37 targets (45.9%, YPR) after totaling just 10/115/0 on 37 targets in the ]rst half of the season. But that is really looking at things with a glass half full perspective. The Bills will have new OC Brian Daboll and presumably a new QB in 2018, but Zay has a serious uphill climb. Hopefully, his shoulder was the big explanation for his poor season. Jordan Matthews The Bills made a series of intriguing moves on one day in August, dealing Sammy Watkins to the Rams for a high pick, while also trading away top CB Ronald Darby to Philadelphia for a third-round pick and Matthews. It seemed like a have your cake and eat it too move for Buffalo, attempting to acquire a productive WR after dealing one away both Matthews and Watkins are slated

4 for free agency, so it wasn t a matter of years under control. Unfortunately, the Bills did not get anywhere close to what they expected of Matthews. Playing in 10 games, Matthews posted just 25/282/1 receiving on 36 targets (69.4%, YPR). He averaged 5.92 FPG to rank 88 th among WRs. He ended up missing six games with thumb, knee, and ankle injuries, the latter two requiring off-season surgery. But in his 10 games, Matthews did not have a single top-36 WR ]nish, and ]nished inside the top 50 at the position on only three occasions. It was a huge bust of a season, and hopefully it was the injuries or the play of QB Tyrod Taylor holding him back. But overall, we found that he was a weird ]t in the offense anyway, given we thought rookie Zay Jones was essentially a Matthews clone a big, possession-type slot receiver. It s possible the presence of Matthews forced Jones out of his comfort zone. Matthews is now entering free agency, and we have no idea if the Bills will be interested in bringing him back under OC Brian Daboll. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: What will the Bills WR position look like in 2018? Can Jones rebound from a horri]c rookie season? Will the Bills bring back Matthews? TIGHT ENDS Charles Clay It s a pretty good summation of the Bills passing game in 2017 that Clay, whose 558 receiving yards ranked him 13th among tight ends league-wide, led Buffalo in receiving by 110 yards (over RB LeSean McCoy). Playing in 13 games, missing three with a knee injury, Clay posted 49/558/2 receiving on 74 targets (66.2%, YPR). At 8.98 FPG, he ranked 12 th among TEs. Clay opened the year with three top-6 TE rankings in his ]rst four games, but from that point on, he ranked as a top-12 TE just two more times Weeks 15 and 17. It s obvious that Clay s knee was a problem for him for most of the season, and he also battled through a hamstring problem that cost him a handful of snaps in the Bills playoff game. When he was less than 100%, the effect it had on the Bill offense was pretty obvious, as Tyrod Taylor didn t really have a key checkdown option to go to. But we ll obviously stop short of calling Clay special, and the Bills have a decision to make on him. While he was their best receiver this year, they can save a ton of money by cutting him this offseason. Could GM Brandon Beane look to totally rebuild the Buffalo pass-catching corps? Nick O Leary O Leary likely isn t a good enough athlete to be a true lead TE in the NFL, but he produced when called upon for the Bills in In 15 games in 2017, missing one with a back injury, O Leary posted 22/322/2 receiving on 32 targets (68.8%, YPR). He averaged 4.41 FPG to rank 42 nd among all TEs. O Leary had no games as a top-12 TE, but ]nished inside the top-24 four times. He obviously didn t have any fantasy relevance, but he s worth keeping an eye on in the event Bill GM Brandon Beane opts to move on from Charles Clay this off-season. We just don t think O Leary moves well enough to be a top TE, but he could be an effective #2, as we saw this year. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Bills save money by releasing Clay, or is he too valuable to let go? Could they restructure his deal? Key Free Agents: WR Jordan Matthews, DT Kyle Williams, CB EJ Gaines, CB Shareece Wright, RB Mike Tolbert, WR Deonte Thompson, WR Brandon Tate, RT Seantrel Henderson (ERFA), WR Joe Webb, S Colt Anderson, CB Leonard Johnson, DL Cedric Thornton, RB Taiwan Jones, RB Travaris Cadet, S Shamarko Thomas, TE Nick O Leary (ERFA). Miami Dolphins (6-10; 3rd in AFC East) QUARTERBACKS Jay Cutler After losing Ryan Tannehill to a torn ACL in early August, the Dolphins dipped into head coach Adam Gase s past as the Bears offensive coordinator and signed Cutler to be their starting QB in the hopes of salvaging what they clearly believed to be a playoff team (after all, they made it last year). Unfortunately, Cutler just wasn t very good, and Dolphins fans probably gained a new respect for Tannehill after watching Cutler all year. In 14 games, missing one game each with a rib injury and a concussion, Cutler posted 266/429 passing for 2666 yards (62.0%, 6.2 YPA). With 19 TD and 14 INT, Cutler ]nished with FPG, which ranked him 33 rd among QBs with ]ve or more appearances. His 6.2 YPA was easily the worst of his career thus far. To be fair to Cutler, he played only brieay in Week 17 before the Dolphins went to get a look at David Fales if we exclude Week 17, Cutler moves to FPG, 32 nd at the position (he also left other games early, to be fair). Yikes. Cutler ]nished three times as a top-12 QB on the year, but never again as even a top-16 QB. You can argue that, for fantasy purposes, he was the worst starting QB in the NFL in Does that mean he played the worst? Not necessarily, but he wasn t very good overall, and his lack of juice as a runner and the overall blahness of the Dolphin offense made him a poor streamer at best. The Dolphins anticipate having Tannehill back next year, and it s not like Cutler s level of play will convince another team to shell out the bucks required to sign him.

5 Matt Moore The Dolphins long-time backup QB played in four games in 2017, starting two. He ]nished with 78/127 passing for 861 yards (61.4%, 6.8 YPA). He ]nished with 4 TDs and 5 INTs and averaged FPG, which ranked him 36 th among QBs. Moore started twice for the injured Jay Cutler, in Weeks 8 and 12. In Week 8 against the Ravens, he was atrocious, going 25/44 for 176 yards and 2 INT, ]nishing as QB27 for the week. In Week 12 against the Patriots, he went 23/34 for 215 yards with a TD and 2 picks, ]nishing as QB25. Moore s two games of relief Weeks 7 and 11 were actually better fantasy performances despite his not starting the games, ]nishing as QB18 and QB15, respectively. So what Moore proved this year is that, well, he s a backup QB. He plays well at times and poorly at others, and sometimes it s hard to know which guy will show up. He s a free agent this off-season, and may want to go somewhere with an opportunity to compete, but we really doubt he ll ]nd one. He s one of the league s better backups, but any role as a starter for him would be temporary (tutoring a rookie, perhaps?). Ryan Tannehill Tannehill s 2016 season ended prematurely when he injured but didn t fully tear the ACL in his left knee late in the regular season. He opted not to get surgery, and was ready for training camp, practicing with a brace on the same knee. But early in camp, that knee buckled, and Tannehill was forced to undergo the surgery he delayed anyway for the torn ACL. He missed the entire 2018 season, but the good news is the injury occurred so early in camp that he s practically going to be 100% by the time April workouts kick off. Dolphin coach Adam Gase told reporters after the season that he is approaching as if Tannehill is his starting QB for Based on what we saw from Jay Cutler and Matt Moore, that makes a ton of sense. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Tannehill be healthy? Who will back him up? RUNNING BACKS The Dolphins initially envisioned a back]eld split between Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams, but Drake aourished when handling the full workload. Kenyan Drake When the Dolphins traded Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia at the deadline, they did so to expand the versatility of their back]eld with Drake and Damien Williams. In turn, they made themselves better, and Philly got better as well. Playing in 16 games, Drake posted 133/644/3 rushing (4.84 YPC) and 32/239/1 receiving on 48 targets (66.7%, 7.5 YPR). He ]nished 43 rd among RBs with 9.02 FPG. However, from Week 9 on (after the Ajayi trade), Drake s workload increased exponentially. Over those nine games, he ranked 10th among RBs with FPG. That s the number you really want to look at when assessing Drake s season. Prior to Week 9, Drake had zero ]nishes inside the top 50 at RB. After, he failed to ]nish inside the top 50 just once. Moreover, he ]nished as a top-12 RB in ]ve of those nine games, and outside the top-24 just twice. The most impressive thing about Drake was how he handed a full workload. Though considered a rotational type of player coming out of Alabama (where he played alongside Derrick Henry), Drake touched the ball over 20 times in three consecutive games from Weeks 13 through 15, including games with 23 and 25 carries. Drake showed elusiveness, quickness, and speed, and he probably showed enough to head into 2018 as the Dolphins top back. But will he be able to handle the full workload necessary for a long enough period of time to pay off his skyrocketing fantasy stock? Damien Williams Williams got four starts for the Dolphins this year, but he overall gave way to Kenyan Drake even after Jay Ajayi got traded. In 11 games, missing the ]nal ]ve with a shoulder injury, Williams posted 46/181/0 rushing (3.9 YPC) and 20/155/1 receiving on 28 targets (71.4%, 7.8 YPR). He averaged 5.42 FPG to rank 78 th at the position. Williams ]nished as the RB9 in the Dolphins ]rst game sans Ajayi in Week 9, but did not ]nish as a top-24 RB the rest of the year before going down with injury. Williams has size and straightline speed and is a good receiver, so there s a chance he draws interest on the open market. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Where will Drake s performance get him drafted for fantasy next year? Do the Dolphins re-sign Williams or go in another direction? WIDE RECEIVERS Jarvis Landry Landry wants to get paid. He has minced no words about it, and continues to reiterate it. He also continues to be one of the most consistent WRs and fantasy producers in football, though his skill set is a unique one. In 16 games this season, Landry posted 112/987/9 receiving on 161 targets (69.6%, 8.8 YPR). At 16.5 FPG, he ranked 5 th among all WRs in PPR production for the season, and 4 th if you don t include Odell Beckham (four games). Landry has now played in every game possible in his four-year career, averages exactly 100 receptions per season, and set a new career high with 9 TD in Moreover, Landry was the only player in the NFL to catch at least 5 passes in every game, a streak he has now extended to 17 games, tied for the 5th-longest such streak in NFL history (Antonio Brown s record of 36 may never be broken). Landry s notoriously low YPR will probably never rise much above the 12.1 it was in 2016, but he s a physical monster with reliable hands who ]ghts for extra yardage near the goal line. He was severely limited in 2017

6 with poor QB play from Jay Cutler, a shame since he and Ryan Tannehill had a career year together in Nonetheless, Landry still had seven games in the top-12 for fantasy, and only twice fell outside the top-36. He never ]nished outside the top 50, so in a poor year for WR scoring, Landry was one of the most consistently reliable options. Landry s route-running prowess and physicality in the short area makes him a great ]t with just about any QB, so we re excited to see where he lands in free agency. If he s back with Tannehill in Miami, we d be just ]ne with that. Nonetheless, he s a speci]c player with a speci]c role who is elite in that role, and he should continue to be productive wherever he goes. Kenny Stills Stills had one of the more under-the-radar fantasy seasons in 2017, perhaps producing a large part of what people hoped DeVante Parker might produce. In 16 games, Jay Cutler s favorite deep threat posted 58/847/6 (55.2%, 14.6 YPR). He averaged FPG to rank 36 th among all WRs. Stills had four games as a top-24 fantasy WR, including three as a top-12 WR between Weeks 7 and 13, which propelled some savvy fantasy players who had noticed his involvement rising into the playoffs Stills 105 targets were a career high by far. However, after that point, Stills was a ghost, as he didn t ]nish inside the top 50 at WR in any of the Dolphins ]nal four games. In other words, he was Stills-like: a deep threat who is probably a better player than most people give him credit for, but an inconsistent one nonetheless. Believe it or not, though, Stills catch rate of 55.2% was easily his best in his three seasons with the Dolphins, as were his 58 catches and 847 yards. He s a long cry from his breakout 2014 season with the Saints (75.9% catch rate on 83 targets), but he s also a long cry from playing with Drew Brees. Stills is a good player, and if Ryan Tannehill is healthy (he should be), he ll be getting a QB upgrade. DeVante Parker Here s a thought exercise: try to talk about Parker positively for one full minute without using the word potential. It s next to impossible, we reckon. Parker s potential aashed yet again in 2017, but ever so brieay. In 13 games, Parker posted 57/670/1 receiving on 96 targets (59.4%, 11.8 YPR). He averaged 10.0 FPG to rank 46 th among WRs. Parker missed three games midseason with an ankle injury, and though he ]nished eight times as a top-36 WR in his 13 games, he only once ranked in the top-24 (Week 3), and never did he ]nish as a top-12 WR. Parker still has just three 100-yard games in his three-year career, and none since November of Parker just turned 25 in late January, so he has plenty of years ahead of him, and there s absolutely no doubt he s talented. But it seems like we re still talking about him the way we talked about him following his rookie season, and eventually, he needs to take a step forward. At times, Adam Gase has seemed to lose patience with the 2015 ]rst-rounder, and we understand why. The issue that s so frustrating is that Parker hasn t been a total bust; he just hasn t really developed from where he was as a rookie. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Where will Landry sign? Will Parker ]nally take the next step in his development? Can Stills continue to be a productive down]eld threat? TIGHT ENDS Julius Thomas Thomas didn t have a great year in 2017, his ]rst (and likely only) season with Miami, but because of a total lack of good options at the TE position. Playing in 14 games before landing on IR with a foot injury, Thomas posted 41/388/3 receiving on 62 targets (66.1%, 9.46 YPR). With 6.99 FPG, he ranked 23 rd among all TEs. Julius had a brief run of relevance from Weeks 9 through 13, during which he posted ]ve consecutive games as a top-24 TE, and three as a top-12 TE. But that production soon faded, and Thomas was on IR by the time the Dolphins played their ]nal two games. It was, at best, a mediocre season for a guy who has been slowed drastically by injuries. The Dolphins can save $6.6 million if they cut Thomas this off-season, and there s no good reason they shouldn t. They will need to revamp their TE position this off-season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Is this the end of the road for Thomas if the Dolphins cut him, as expected? Will the Dolphins make a move or several to strengthen this position? Key Free Agents: WR Jarvis Landry, QB Jay Cutler, QB Matt Moore, PK Cody Parkey, DE William Hayes, S Nate Allen, OL Jermon Bushrod, RB Damien Williams, TE Anthony Fasano, S Michael Thomas, LB Koa Misi, CB Alterraun Verner, OL Sam Young, LB Rey Maualuga, QB David Fales (RFA), CB Walt Aikens, DL Terrence Fede. New England Patriots (13-3; 1st in AFC East) QUARTERBACKS Tom Brady The ageless wonder had an amazing season perhaps tumultuous, depending on what reports you believe at age 40. He turned in an MVP campaign, and may have forced the trade of Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers, but whatever the case he got the Patriots back to the Super Bowl and was fantastic for fantasy, though he had a little bit of a late-season swoon that could have hurt fantasy players in crunch time. In 16 games, Brady posted 385/581 passing for 4577 yards (66.3%, 7.9 YPA). He threw 32 TD against 8 INT to ]nish with FPG to rank 7 th among QBs. Brady ]nished as a top-12 QB in 10 games, including as the #1 overall twice (Weeks

7 2 and 3). He had just one game with multiple INTs (a bizarre Week 14 loss to Miami), and now hasn t thrown 10 or more INTS in a season since 2013 (11). Unfortunately, Brady owners may remember his poor run from Weeks 13 through 15, when he ]nished as the QB28, QB23, and QB19 in fantasy playoff time, before rebounding to ]nish as QB11 in Week 16. Brady had ]ve games of 300 yards or more, of course culminating in a game that didn t matter for fantasy, as he threw for a Super Bowl record 505 yards in a loss to the Eagles. After the trade of Garoppolo, which Brady himself may have at least nudged along, there s no doubt that Brady plans on playing for some time more. He s healthy, and as Super Bowl LII proved, still capable of playing at a titanic level. The NFL MVP will once again be back among the earliest-drafted fantasy QBs in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Just how much longer will Touchdown Tom play? Are the Pats content with Brian Hoyer as a backup, or will they attempt to ]nd the next Garoppolo in the draft? RUNNING BACKS Dion Lewis The Patriots acquired Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee in the 2017 off-season, but it was a guy who was already on the roster who ended up being their best runner and most consistent fantasy option in the back]eld. Lewis has aashed in the past, but injuries have limited him to a what could be kind of guy. No longer. In 16 games, Lewis stayed healthy, and posted 180/896/6 rushing (4.98 YPC) with 32/214/3 receiving (91.4%, 6.69 YPR). At FPG, he ranked 17th among RBs with ]ve or more appearances for the 2017 season. In 16 games, Lewis ]nished as a top-24 RB seven times, including a top-12 RB performance three times (he was RB2 in Week 16 against Buffalo, championship week for most fantasy players). He had four more games as a top-36 RB, so at minimum Lewis was a solid aex play, and his ceiling was as a week-winner. Though he played just 35% of the Lewis was most active late in the year, seeing 61 total touches in Weeks 16 and 17, and enters free agency on a high note. Patriots snaps on the season, he was at his most active late in the year, playing between 57.6% and 71.2% of the offensive snaps over the ]nal three games of the regular season. In Weeks 16 and 17, Lewis had 24/129/1 rushing, then 26/93/1 rushing, the ]rst two games of his career in which he topped 20 carries. In fact, he totaled 61 touches in those two games, counting his receiving work. The Patriots got away from Lewis in the Super Bowl, as he had just 9 touches, but it s hard to argue given that Tom Brady threw for 505 yards in the game. Nonetheless, the shifty, tough Lewis acquitted himself well, and he now enters free agency armed with a healthy season and the most work he s ever had. Rex Burkhead Burkhead was one of our favorite off-season signings when he inked a one-year deal with the Patriots this off-season, given we think he s a balanced player with way more ability than his usage in Cincinnati would indicate. Unfortunately, injuries really sidelined him and prevented him from getting truly going in 2017, though he aashed. In 10 games, missing six with a rib injury early and then a knee injury late, Burkhead posted 64/264/5 rushing (4.13 YPC) and 30/254/3 receiving on 36 targets (83.3%, 8.47 YPR). He averaged FPG, which ranked him 15 th among RBs with ]ve or more appearances. Burkhead ]nished as a top-36 RB in seven of his 10 games, including as a top-24 RB in six of those games, and a top-12 RB in three of them. When active, Burkhead was a fantastic aex play, though his snap shares were generally low he topped a 50% snap share just once, and on average played just 28.4% of the Pats snaps when active. But he made his snaps count, scoring all 5 of his rushing TD in a span from Weeks 12 through 15, and he added 3 receiving TD as well, meaning he scored a touchdown on 8.5% of his 94 touches. Burkhead enters free agency as a very versatile, interesting player who should draw some interest on the market, though he could well return to the Patriots if New England opts to move on from Dion Lewis. James White The Patriots clearly love White in his role as third-down pass catcher and pass protector, but it leads to an inconsistent fantasy option. In 14 games for White, missing two with an ankle injury late in the season, White posted 43/171/0 rushing (3.98 YPC), with 56/429/3 receiving on 72 targets (77.8%, 7.66 YPR). He averaged 9.57 FPG to rank 38 th among RBs. Overall, White was a nice aex player to have for fantasy, as he ranked as a top-12 PPR RB just twice in 14 games, but ]nished as a top-24 RB three more times, and a top-36 RB four more times on top of that. White caught 3 passes or more in 10 games. He was generally in contention to be the Patriots snap leader in the back]eld each and every week, and his 37.9% snap share when active did actually lead all Patriot RBs. Then, in the postseason, White did as he does (remember, he was the hero of Super Bowl LI), scoring 4 TDs in three games, including 3 rushing TDs after having zero during the regular season. For now, White is the Pats most accomplished RB under contract, and should have a similar role in 2018 barring something surprising, and will always be a viable later-round pick in PPR formats. Mike Gillislee The Patriots felt they could upgrade their power back role by allowing LeGarrette Blount to walk, and they gave up a ]fth-round pick to sign Gillislee as a restricted free agent in the process (to a two-year deal worth about $6.5 million). It was a mistake. While Blount moved on to Philly for pennies and ended up being a Super Bowl hero (against the Pats, no less), Gillislee played in just nine games, missing some time with a knee injury late but also found himself as a healthy scratch by midseason. Gillislee posted

8 104/383/5 (3.68 YPC) rushing and 1/15 receiving on his only target. He averaged 7.87 FPG to rank him 53 rd among RBs. Gillislee s season opened with a 3-TD game against the Chiefs in Week 1, then 18/69/1 rushing in Week 2 against the Saints, looking like he was going to be at minimum a Blount facsimile for fantasy. But it was all downhill from there. Gillislee had fumble problems, contributed nothing as a receiver, and didn t score another TD until a revenge game TD against Buffalo in Week 16, long after fantasy teams gave up on him. Gillislee is under contract for 2018, but will the Pats give him an opportunity to earn a role, given they could save over $2 million by cutting him? Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Lewis and/or Burkhead be back? If not, who becomes New England s early-down back? Will Gillislee get a shot to be back in 2018? WIDE RECEIVERS Brandin Cooks The Patriots made one of the 2017 off-season s splashiest moves by acquiring Cooks from the Saints in March for two picks (a 1 st and a 3 rd in 2017). Cooks ended up having a very Cooks like season, producing big plays and occasionally big numbers, but ultimately an inconsistent season for fantasy. In 16 games, he posted 65/1082/7 receiving on 114 targets (57.0%, YPR). He ranked 18 th among WRs with 13.7 FPG. He was second to only Marvin Jones (18.05 YPR) in yards per reception among the top 30 fantasy WRs, which unfortunately speaks to the inconsistency we ve kind of grown accustomed to with Cooks. In 16 games, Cooks ]nished as a top-12 WR ]ve times and had three more as a top-24 WR, but he also ]nished outside the top 50 at the position on ]ve separate occasions. He had two games with 100 or more receiving yards, and six below 40 receiving yards. He had 10 games with 4 or more catches, but mostly was more of a traditional deep threat than anything else. His 57.0% catch rate was by far a career low (he had never fallen below 65.1% in three seasons with the Saints), while his 16.6 YPR topped his previous career high by 1.6 YPR. In other words, he was essentially DeSean Jackson for fantasy, which isn t necessarily a bad thing, but perhaps slightly disappointing. During the postseason, Cooks had a 100-yard game against the Jags, but otherwise was a nonfactor. He posted 3/32 on 9 targets against the Titans in the divisional round, and was knocked out of Super Bowl LII against Philly with a concussion when he tried to make an improvisational play and ran directly into S Malcolm Jenkins without seeing him. Again, Cooks has proven he can be more than the standard deep threat, but the Pats didn t use him as such, and it d be wise to consider him like you would DJax for fantasy when you draft him in August. Danny Amendola It wasn t a big regular season for Amendola, despite the preseason injury to Julian Edelman, as he posted 61/659/2 receiving on 86 targets (70.9%, YPR) to rank 54 th among WRs with 9.26 FPG, missing one game with a concussion (Week 2). Amendola ranked as a top-12 WR just once all year, and as a top-24 PPR WR just three more times. But Amendola came absolutely alive during the postseason, catching 26 passes for 348 yards and 2 TD in three games (both TDs came against Jacksonville in a thrilling AFC Championship Game), though he may be most remembered for ever so slightly overthrowing Tom Brady on a Super Bowl trick play. He had two 100-yard games during the playoffs, after doing it just once during the regular season. Amendola was a critical player for the Patriots this season, and for the most part, he stayed healthy as he enters free agency (he battled some knee soreness for the entire year, for what it s worth). One of the game s best slot masters, Amendola could draw some interest on the open market, but will the Patriots want him back to give themselves Edelman insurance? Chris Hogan After the preseason ACL injury to Julian Edelman, we were drafting Hogan as a potential league winner, and for a few weeks early, we were looking pretty good. After a quiet Week 1, Hogan scored 5 TDs over his next four games, ranking no lower than WR14 for any given week in that span. He turned in two more solid top-36 WR weeks in Weeks 7 and 8, but went down with a shoulder injury that would end up costing him almost the entire second half of the season. Hogan played in nine games and posted 34/439/5 receiving on 59 targets (57.6%, YPR). He ]nished with FPG, ranking 25 th among WRs. But after suffering what was apparently a very serious shoulder injury, he played in just one regular-season game the rest of the way, catching just 1 ball for a single yard against Miami in Week 14, before the Pats shut him down. Hogan got healthy enough by Super Bowl LII to garner 6/128/1 on 8 targets against Philadelphia in a losing effort, and should be good to go heading into the off-season. A versatile receiver who can play outside or in the slot, he will protect the Patriots against an Edelman reinjury in the event the Pats choose not to bring back Danny Amendola, but even if Edelman returns to 100% as expected, Hogan should have a role as an outside receiver alongside Brandin Cooks. He has potential to be a value pick in Phillip Dorsett Given how things played out later in the season, Dorsett was acquired in a trade the Patriots would probably like to have back. In 15 games in 2017, he managed just 12/194/0 receiving on 18 targets, missing one game with a knee injury. The Patriots acquired the ]rst-round disappointment for the Colts just before the start of the regular season for promising young QB Jacoby Brissett, but this was before the Pats traded Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers (potentially forced by Tom Brady?). Nothing we saw from Dorsett this year suggests he will develop into anything more than a fourth or ]fth receiver on a roster, but hey, stranger things have happened. At least he can run fast.

9 Julian Edelman Edelman missed all of the 2017 season with a torn ACL suffered in late August. Fortunately, he ll be nearly a full year removed by the time training camp rolls around, but he ll also turn 32 in May, so nothing here is guaranteed. The big question is if the Pats will re-sign Danny Amendola as Edelman insurance. We ll keep an eye on Edelman s status throughout the off-season, but if he s healthy as expected, his ADP will be absolutely fascinating to watch. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Edelman be healthy? What are the Patriots going to do with Amendola? Will Hogan be an interesting draft value? TIGHT ENDS Rob Gronkowski How much more punishment can Gronk s body take? Arguably the greatest tight end of all time, Gronk nonetheless has dealt with major, major injuries throughout his career, most recently a concussion suffered in the AFC Championship Game against the Jaguars. But when he s out there, Gronk produces like a madman. He played in 14 games in 2017, missing one game with a thigh injury and another with a suspension, Gronk posted 69/1084/8 receiving on 105 targets (65.7%, YPR). His FPG ranked him #1 among all TEs. Gronk ]nished as the #1 overall TE in two weeks, and ]nished as a top-3 TE in ]ve more. He ]nished outside the top- 12 in just three of his 14 games, though he was essentially rested in a glori]ed walkthrough Week 17, playing a lower snap share than in any other healthy game of the season. Gronk had three 100-yard games during the regular season and two games with multiple TDs, a feat he accomplished in both regards in a Super Bowl LII loss to the Eagles. But it s so hard to ignore how many body parts Gronk has severely injured. None are worse than his back, which has been a problem dating back to college, but his recent spell of concussions is frightening. Gronk still has two years and $17 million left on his deal (plus any potential incentives added on, as the Patriots did in 2017), but he has at least admitted the thought of retirement has crossed his mind. He hasn t played a full 16-game schedule since If Gronk returns, he s going to be one of the ]rst two TEs off the board come draft time. As of now, there s no real reason to think he might, but he is maybe one shot to the head away from truly hanging it up. Dwayne Allen We ll admit we were surprised by how little impact Allen had for the Patriots in After being traded to New England along with a 6th-round pick in exchange for a 4th-round pick from the Colts, Allen posted just 10/86/1 receiving on 22 targets in 16 games, despite playing 41.3% of the Patriots snaps. He struggled with drops and never earned Tom Brady s trust, failing to catch a single pass until Week 10 (his ]rst, naturally, was a TD). The Patriots tried to kick him out of the lineup when they brought in Martellus Bennett midseason, but Bennett was damaged goods at the time and missed the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. Nonetheless, Allen would save the Pats $5 million if he gets cut, and it s hard to imagine him being back. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How much time does Gronk have left? Even if Gronk is back, will the Pats revamp their depth chart behind him? Key Free Agents: RB Dion Lewis, RB Rex Burkhead, WR Danny Amendola, LT Nate Solder, CB Malcolm Butler, OLB James Harrison, OLB Marquis Flowers, WR/ST Matthew Slater, OT Cameron Fleming, OT LaAdrian Waddle, CB Johnson Bademosi, DL Ricky Jean- Francois, S Nate Ebner, RB/ST Brandon Bolden. New York Jets (5-11; 4th in AFC East) QUARTERBACKS Josh McCown The Jets brought in McCown last off-season to be a bridge QB whether that was supposed to be a bridge to Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg, or whether that was supposed to be a bridge to 2018, we don t really know. But McCown s play ensured it was the latter. Playing in 13 games, McCown did far better than anyone could have anticipated. He went 267/397 for 2926 yards (67.3%, 7.4 YPA). He threw 18 TD and 9 INT and added 38/124/5 rushing to ]nish with FPG, 16 th among QBs and just one spot behind Drew Brees. If you count only the full 12 games he played before getting hurt, his FPG ranked him 10th. At age 38, it was a career year for McCown, who led a Jets team that many felt would challenge the Browns for the worst in the league to a respectable 5-8 record in his 13 starts, before a broken left hand ended his campaign. McCown wasn t just useful for the Jets, however: fantasy players got a high-end streamer out of him if they were observant to how well he was playing. Starting in Week 6, McCown had a seven-game stretch over which he ranked as a top-7 QB ]ve times. He peaked at QB2 in Week 13, his second-to-last start prior to breaking his hand. During that stretch, he threw for over 300 yards three times, and accounted for multiple TDs in all but one game. Remember, he did this with an offense that was in no way built to contend this year. His season came to an abrupt end when he broke his left hand against the Broncos in Week 14, but McCown had such a pleasant experience with the Jets in 2017 that he wants to continue playing, whether that s in New York or elsewhere. The Jets need to get their QB of the future, but McCown proved he can handle the present just ]ne if the Jets want to slow-play it a bit. McCown is a free agent, but the Jets should have some interest in bringing him back.

10 Bryce Petty Petty is, uh not good. He played four games for the Jets, starting three. He posted 55/112 passing for 544 yards (49.1%, 4.9 YPA) with 1 TD and 3 INT. He added 7/55 rushing. At 9.18 FPG, he ranked 49 th among QBs. He accounted for 1 TD total in four games Josh McCown accounted for multiple TDs in eight of his 12 full games alone. Petty is inaccurate, skittish, and ineffective. He likely doesn t even have much of a future as a backup, let alone as a starter. Of course, his performance begs the question just how bad must Christian Hackenberg be? Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Who will be the Jets starting QB in 2018? Will they bring back McCown? Is this the end of the road for Petty and Christian Hackenberg? RUNNING BACKS Matt Forte The Jets were way more competitive in 2017 than anyone ]gured they would be, though it was still bizarre that they hung on to the aging Forte, and continued to give him a lot of work. Forte played in 12 games in 2017, missing four with a bothersome knee and toe that basically hampered him all year. In those 12 games, Forte posted103/381/2 rushing (3.7 YPC) and 37/293/1 receiving on 45 targets (82.2% catch rate, 7.92 YPR). He averaged FPG to rank 32 nd among RBs, by far the worst season for fantasy of a really good career (he is just over 500 yards shy of 15,000 scrimmage yards in his career). Forte ranked six times as a weekly top-24 RB, including twice as a top-12 RB, but he ]nished outside the top 50 at the RB position in ]ve of his 12 games. He had zero games with 100 or more yards from scrimmage, and his 3 TDs came in two games, so he was held without a score in 10 of 12 games. In all, he played 45.9% of the Jets snaps in games in which he was active, and you could argue that it was too much. Forte is now 32, and cutting him would save the Jets $3 million. If Forte wants to keep playing, he may have to accept a drastically reduced role with a contender; he s still an effective receiver, but his days as a true lead back are long gone. We thought the Jets would give Powell a chance to be a lead-back this year and while the team often used a 3-man rotation instead, Powell was often the most effective of the bunch, averaging 4.34 YPC on the year. Bilal Powell It s bizarre that the Jets didn t really give Powell a chance to be a true lead back this year, instead insisting often on a three-man rotation with Matt Forte and (occasionally) Elijah McGuire. Playing in 15 games, missing one with a calf injury, Powell posted 178/772/5 rushing (4.34 YPC) and 23/170/0 receiving on 33 targets (69.7%, 7.39 YPR). At 9.81 FPG, he ranked 36 th among RBs, four spots behind Forte. But Powell was generally more effective than Forte, at least as a runner, averaging 4.34 YPC to Forte s 3.7. That said, Powell s line was boosted by two huge games with 21/163/1 rushing against the Jags in Week 4, and 19/145/1 rushing against the Chargers in Week 16. Even excluding those games, though, Powell was a better runner for pretty much the entire year over Forte. Nonetheless, He played just over 40% of the Jets snaps when active this year, behind Forte (around 46%), and the Jets just did not want to commit fully to him. No doubt, Powell has been mostly a rotational back in his NFL career thus far, but the fact that the Jets so willingly limited his touches for a clearly banged-up Forte is a red aag (either for Powell or the Jets coaching). Powell ranked 10 times as a top-36 RB, including three times as a top-24 RB, with two of those coming in the top-12. In other words, he was the de]nition of a PPR aex. We wonder, of course, if he could have been more. The Jets could save big money if they cut Powell, but he was also their most effective back in 2017, and you d ]gure they ll be more likely to move on from Forte. Elijah McGuire Prior to last year s NFL Draft, we compared McGuire to a Bilal Powell type, so obviously he landed with the Jets late in the April draft. The rookie out of Lousiana-Lafayette posted 88/315/1 rushing (3.58 YPC) and 17/177/1 receiving on 26 targets (65.4%, YPR). He averaged 4.89 FPG to rank 85 th among RBs. McGuire ]nished as the overall RB8 in Week 4 and the RB13 in Week 15, but ranked inside the top-50 at the position just three more times. Behind Matt Forte and Powell, he was easily the least used of the Jets three-headed monster in the back]eld, playing 26.3% of their offensive snaps. He was also the least effective as a runner, averaging just 3.58 YPC. McGuire is a straight-line type with good hands and receiving ability, but there s nothing he did as a rookie that would suggest he must be in the Jets plans next year. That said, the Jets could save big bucks by cutting both or either of Forte or Powell, and we think Forte at minimum is likely to go. At the least, McGuire aashed at times and should be a cheap rotational player for New York in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Jets cut Forte, Powell, or both? Will they add a high-priced FA or high draft pick? What is McGuire s role going forward? WIDE RECEIVERS

11 Robby Anderson One reason we believed the Jets had one of the NFL s worst offenses heading into 2017 not exactly an unpopular opinion was because we felt they didn t have any WRs worth a damn. Clearly, we didn t take Anderson s solid ]nish to the 2016 season seriously enough. He returned to post an excellent 2017 season with Josh McCown at QB. In 16 games (the second consecutive season he s played all 16 games), Anderson posted 63/941/7 receiving on 114 targets (55.3%, YPR) to ]nish with 12.5 FPG, 23 rd among all WRs. But if you don t include the ]nal four games of the season when the awful Bryce Petty was the Jets primary QB for the injured McCown Anderson averaged FPG, 16 th among WRs. Prior to the McCown injury, Anderson was a legitimate Waiver Wire MVP. He scored in ]ve consecutive games from Weeks 7 through 12, a span over which he ranked no lower than WR20 and had a weekly high of WR4. He then ]nished as WR9 in Week 13, which would be the ]nal full game McCown played before breaking his nonthrowing hand. Anderson is 6 3, and though he s impossibly thin, he s one of the NFL s better deep threats, and he made some circus catches as well. He s simply a good receiver, not just a good for the Jets receiver. Of course, this off-season, we got a glimpse into why he went undrafted out of Temple in 2016 Anderson was arrested on multiple charges in mid-january in Florida, including resisting arrest, his second off-season arrest in as many seasons. As of now, the Jets appear willing to work with Anderson through his legal ones, but it s likely any more trouble could leave him looking for work. It s a big question for him after a big season. Jermaine Kearse Kearse was perhaps correctly thought of as just a throw-in piece in the trade that sent Sheldon Richardson to Seattle, as he came over packaged with a 2nd-round pick. Kearse then proceeded to have a career year with the Jets, taking advantage of his increased opportunity. In 16 games, Kearse posted 65/810/5 receiving on 102 targets (63.7%, YPR). He ranked 40 th among WRs with FPG. Kearse isn t particularly fast, but he s physical, built well, and good with contested catches, which can help create big plays. The Jets got a lot out of Kearse by using him in the slot, where he didn t play in Seattle because the position was occupied by star Doug Baldwin. Kearse has had a knack for making spectacular catches dating back to his time in Seattle, but he added consistency as a part of his game with the Jets. He ]nished as a top-36 WR in seven games, including as a top-12 WR three times. He was a more than serviceable guy to have as a WR5 on a roster, though like Robby Anderson, his production slipped off signi]cantly when Josh McCown got hurt and Bryce Petty had to play. The bad news is Kearse has a $5.5 million cap hit next year, all of which the Jets can save by cutting him. Could they look to save that money and try to upgrade the position? If they do release Kearse, they ll be releasing a lot of production. ArDarius Stewart It was not a good rookie season for Stewart, the Jets third-round pick in 2017, and it s troubling that he struggled so much on a team that really didn t have a ton of WR talent (though Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse exceeded expectations). In 15 games, Stewart posted 6/82 receiving on 13 targets, adding 7/27 as a rusher. The Jets had plans for Stewart, as he played a lot in Week 1, but his work almost completely disappeared after that. Stewart had a good preseason, but his presumed role as the Jets slot receiver was usurped by Kearse just over a week before the regular season began, after the Sheldon Richardson trade. Stewart then did nothing to earn the role back. An old rookie, Stewart is now 24, and has an uphill climb to relevance if the Jets choose to upgrade at WR (as they should). Quincy Enunwa Enunwa was a popular upside pick for fantasy over the summer, but his 2017 season ended before it began with a neck injury that required surgery. He enters restricted free agency with his career year of 58/857/4 in 2016 a distant memory, but he remains a talented player who will be just 26 in May. There should be some interest in the Jets bringing him back. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Anderson s legal problems become a huge issue? Will the Jets cut the productive Kearse just to save money? Will they re-sign Enunwa? Will 2017 rookies Stewart and Chad Hansen ever amount to anything? TIGHT ENDS Austin Seferian-Jenkins ASJ, a talented but troubled former second-round pick of the Buccaneers, opened the 2017 season with a two-game suspension stemming from a September 2016 DUI arrest, which proved to be his last straw in Tampa Bay. The Jets gave him a second chance, however, and ASJ made the most of it, and has gotten himself sober. That makes him a great story, and he was a relatively productive player in In 13 games (missing two with the suspension and another with a rib injury), ASJ posted 50/357/3 on 74 targets (67.6%, 7.14 YPR). He averaged 7.98 FPG to rank 17 th among TEs. ASJ s season will be most notable for two plays that may end up leading to some clari]cations of the NFL s catch rule (and for those so inclined, plays that give credence to the NFL s pro- Patriots conspiracy!), but he was also a viable TE streamer in good matchups. He ranked as a top-15 TE in ]ve of six games between Weeks 5 and 10, though he did not reach that plateau in any of his other 10 games. Really, he was mostly a red-zone and chain-moving threat who didn t make down]eld plays, but he was still a reliable check down type of option for QB Josh McCown. ASJ is scheduled to be a free agent, but both he and the Jets have expressed interest in continuing their relationship. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Jets re-sign ASJ and can he become a more dynamic receiver as he heads into his age-26 season? Key Free Agents: QB Josh McCown, CB Morris Claiborne, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, LB Demario Davis, WR Quincy Enunwa (RFA), K Chandler Catanzaro, DE Kony Ealy, DT Mike Pennel, C Wesley Johnson, LB Bruce Carter, LB David Bass, S Terrence Brooks, WR

12 Neal Sterling (RFA), OT Brent Qvale (RFA). JOE DOLAN MANAGING EDITOR Joe Dolan is the managing editor of FantasyGuru.com, a role he assumed in He has been with FantasyGuru since In 2015, using FantasyGuru.com's Projections, Joe placed 1st of over 140 fantasy experts in FantasyPros.com s annual Preseason Draft Accuracy rankings, after having ]nished 3rd in Be sure to follow him on Twitter

13 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: AFC South Graham BarZeld published on January 30, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Houston Texans (4-12; T-3rd in AFC South) QUARTERBACKS Deshaun Watson Before devastatingly tearing his ACL in practice in the middle of the season, Deshaun Watson was on a historic scoring pace. Granted, it was a small sample, but Watson s 24.1 fantasy PPG in 2017 was eighth-most by a quarterback in a singleseason all-time. For more perspective, Deshaun Watson led all QBs in YPA (8.3), Pass TD Rate (9.3%), yards per completion (13.5), and was third in QB Rating (103) in his seven-game stretch as the starter. Now, no quarterback can maintain a near 10 percent TD rate but what Watson accomplished in such a short amount of time was staggering. Along with being an incredibly excient passer, Watson also added an additional rushing line of 5/38/0.3 in his seven-game hot-streak under center. Watson s weekly QB Znishes were nothing short of spectacular after he came in after halftime in relief of Tom Savage in Week 1. Finishing as the QB7, QB15, QB1, QB1, QB2, and QB2 in six full starts Watson was one of the true difference-makers in a down year for passing output across the league. Now, ACL surgery has improved dramatically over the past 5-10 years but Watson is currently rehabbing his second ACL tear, albeit in separate knees. In 2014 while at Clemson, Watson played with a torn left ACL. Watson tore his right ACL in early-november this past season. At press-time, Watson is almost three full months into ACL rehab and is expected to be healthy for Week 1 barring any setbacks. It ll be fascinating to see where Watson goes in 2018 drafts once the dust settles and more information about his injury/rehab becomes available in the spring. For a second-year QB that has only appeared in seven career games, Watson is a candidate to go over-drafted. His injury, likely TD regression, and poor offensive line remain signizcant concerns. Still, with his added rushing upside, there is no doubt Watson has the QB1 upside in fantasy football. Watson will surely be up for contentious debate once we get our 2018 projections rolling. Tom Savage After Znishing the year on injured-reserve (concussion), Tom Savage is an unrestricted free agent in It s likely he s played his last game as a Texan. In now 11 games played over the last two years, Savage has completed just 58% of his passes, averaged 6.3 YPA, he owns a 5:7 TD-to-INT ratio, and a brutal 73.8 QB Rating in that span. Savage is 6-4 and has a strong arm, but that s about where the positives stop. He ll look for a backup gig on a one or two year deal this offseason. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Deshaun Watson come back fully healthy in 2018? How hard will negative TD regression hit? Who will back him up? RUNNING BACKS Lamar Miller A disappointing free agent signing over the last two years, Lamar Miller is a potential cap casualty this offseason. The Texans have $57M in space available (sixth-most), but they can save an additional $2.75M against the 2018 cap if they cut Miller pre- June 1. Miller has straight up struggled as a workhorse piece in Houston. Over the last two years, Miller has ranked 11 th (2017) and 9 th (2016) in total touches among RBs but has turned all of that usage into RB19 (2017) and RB18 (2016) in PPR per game output. Yikes. Furthermore, Miller has Znished third from last and sixth from last in missed tackles forced per touch in his Texans career, per PFF. The Texans' run blocking has been mediocr for two straight years but Miller has struggled to create big plays on his own, make defenders miss, and score fantasy points on his gobs of touches over the last two years. Miller is still very young as far as NFL RBs go he s 27 and the Texans have ample cap space to keep Lamar Miller around one more year. Still, even with a workhorse workload, Miller has been a middling RB2 at best for two-straight years. With D Onta Foreman set to return in 2018 off of his Achilles tear, Miller s stock is trending downwards heading into the offseason. More competition for touches isn t a good thing for a back that hasn t scored up to his opportunity.

14 DOnta Foreman The Texans sustained another cruel injury in 2017 when D Onta Foreman tore his Achilles on a 34-yard TD score in Week 12. The soon-to-be 22-year-old posted 78/327/2 rushing and hashed a few big plays as a pass catcher, too. One of the signizcant concerns for Foreman coming out of Texas was his pass-catching chops. Still, coming off a major injury and with Lamar Miller nevertheless in front of him on the depth chart, for now, Foreman enters 2018 as a late-round fantasy dart throw. Certainly, that can change quite a bit this offseason if the Texans do indeed decide to save some cash and let Miller go but that would likely be somewhat contingent upon Foreman s health. Alfred Blue (71/262/1 rushing in 2017) is also an unrestricted free agent. The Texans backzeld is a bit up in the air for Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: What will the Texans backzeld look like in 2018? Will Lamar Miller be back? Will D Onta Foreman be 100 percent healthy? WIDE RECEIVERS DeAndre Hopkins While the Texans backzeld is a question mark this offseason, their No. 1 and No. 2 receiver slots are not. DeAndre Hopkins went utterly nuclear in 2017, even with shoddy QB play for more than half of the season. To start, Hopkins averaged 20.8 PPR PPG this season the 39th-best individual WR campaign of alltime. In perhaps one of the most consistent seasons of all-time, DeAndre Hopkins had at least 60 yards receiving and/or a TD in every single game this year, including Week 17. After a disappointing 2016 season, Hopkins bounced back dominantly last year. Now, Deshaun Watson s knee looms large but Hopkins proved he is QB proof (besides Brock Osweiler) this past year. Hopkins averaged an even 21.1 PPG with Deshaun Watson and 20.5 PPG without him in It may have been quiet, but 2017 was a true bounce back year for DeAndre Hopkins, who Xnished with 20.8 PPR FPG and proved he is QB-proof. The main reason Hopkins was so consistent on a weekly basis despite poor QB play from Tom Savage for half of the season was his massive share of Texans opportunity. Hopkins led all WRs in target share (45%), he was tied for second with Antonio Brown in team share of air yards (45%), and was Zfth among all receivers in redzone target share (30%). DeAndre Hopkins deserves to be a no-brainer top-15 pick in 2018 fantasy drafts. Will Fuller While Hopkins' 2018 value is easy to pin down; Will Fuller is a little bit more tricky. Fuller started 2017 on the sidelines with a broken collarbone, then returned to the lineup only to light up the stat sheet with Deshaun Watson at the controls. In four games together, Fuller went for 4/35/2, 2/57/2, 2/62/1, and 5/125/2. Wow. That s right Will Fuller scored seven touchdowns on just 22 total targets from Deshaun Watson in Effectively, Fuller scored on 32% of his targets from Watson on a four-game sample. That's not going to sustain over the long run. Still, Fuller is the Texans Zeld stretcher and has clear upside with Watson under center. Granted, this is another warning for small samples, but Fuller saw 33% of Texans air yards, 18% of targets, and a mammoth 21.7 average depth of target (in yardage) last year. That will do. Opportunity-wise, even with a dip in touchdown rate, Fuller projects as a WR2 in fantasy. While Will Fuller's upside is palpable, he's been bitten by the injury bug to start his career. In now two seasons, Fuller has missed eight total games with leg, hamstring, collarbone, ribs, and knee issues. That's a long list of ailments for a short period. Fuller had his knee scoped on January 2 nd, 2018, too. Fuller is only 24-years-old and presents legitimate WR1 upside in the Texans scheme, but his durability is a short- and long-term question mark. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: DeAndre Hopkins cemented his WR1 status this past year; how early will he go in 2018? Can Will Fuller stay healthy? Where will he go in 2018 drafts? TIGHT ENDS CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Gri^n Since DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller accounted for 50% of Deshaun Watson s targets in six full starts last year, the Texans TE situation will likely be ignored for 2018 fantasy drafts. However, a potential career ending to CJ Fiedorowicz looms over the Texans offseason.

15 Fiedorowicz missed 11 games in 2017, mainly dealing with concussion issues. Over the last two years, Fiedorowicz has suffered four known concussions three of which came in That s brutal. Only 26-years-old, Fiedorowicz will have to pass a physical this offseason and will face extensive concussion protocol to play in Fiedorowicz signed a three-year extension with $10M in guarantees last offseason. There s no guarantee he plays in the NFL again. On the hipside, teammate Ryan Gri^n also ended the 2017 season on IR with a concussion. In six full games without Fiedorowicz in the lineup in 2017, Ryan Gri^n averaged a measly 7.0 PPR PPG (2.6/32/0.2 per game). Going into 2018 the Texans TE corps has way more questions than answers. GM Rick Smith will likely have to address the position at some point this offseason. Stephen Anderson may end up being the No. 2 TE in town if Fiedorowicz is unzt to play in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How will the Texans approach TE this offseason? Will anyone emerge as a fantasy contributor? Key Free Agents: CB Jonathan Joseph, S Marcus Gilchrist, T Breno Giacomini, T Chris Clark, G Xavier Su'a-Filo, G/C Greg Mancz (RFA), RB Alfred Blue, WR Bruce Ellington Indianapolis Colts (4-12; T-3rd in AFC South) QUARTERBACKS Andrew Luck The biggest question in the Colts organization and perhaps in the entire NFL this offseason is Andrew Luck s health. Luck missed all of 2017 with a shoulder injury, and his 2018 status is entirely up in the air. Unfortunately, Colts and NFL fans were deceived from the get-go starting last spring regarding Luck s balky shoulder. The Colts deception over Luck s injury deception started at the top. Colts owner Jim Irsay lied about Luck s injury starting in March 2017, stating his surgically repaired shoulder will be, completely healed for next season. Then again in June, literally weeks before Luck would be placed on the physically unable to perform list in July, Irsay said Luck s injured shoulder is, is healing tremendously. Now, from March-July, Luck was not throwing in sessions in open to the media nor did anyone have a clue what was going on with his rehabilitation. Beat writers could only speculate on what Irsay and the Colts brass were implying, but nothing more. That s when things got weird. A week before Opening Day Luck was nowhere to be found all throughout Training Camp or the preseason Jim Irsay changed course, saying that Luck s injury was, up to the football gods and Luck s own gut feeling. It was clear in July something was wrong with Luck s shoulder, and his no-show in training camp only exacerbated the issue. After Luck was removed from the PUP list on September 2 nd, many speculated that the move insured Luck would be ready within the next 4-5 weeks. Wrong again. Reports began leaking in late-october that Luck was still having pain in his throwing shoulder and he was placed on season-ending IR on November 2 nd. Then, Zve days later, Jim Irsay dared to question whether or not Luck's injury was in his head despite the fact all signs pointed to something being off with his rehabilitation in the summer. The latest report we have was in late-december, from Luck, saying that he doesn t think he needs another surgery and he further clarized the pain he was experiencing mid-season. Luck still hasn t resumed throwing as of late-january, though. Only time will tell. Over the course of his career, the Colts have averaged 7.2 fewer points per game (based on per drive data) with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. Since 2014, Andrew Luck (5.9%) is second only to Aaron Rodgers in passing TD rate and is third (286.4) to Ben Roethlisberger (297.5) and Drew Brees (307.4) in YPG. Luck is unquestionably a top-zve fantasy QB when healthy, but his lingering questions regarding his throwing shoulder both short- and long-term remain a primary concern. Jacoby Brissett After being traded from New England for Philip Dorsett the day Andrew Luck was removed from the PUP list on September 2 nd, Jacoby Brissett had to come into a brand new situation and learn the playbook fast. Given the circumstances and lack of sharp surrounding personnel, Jacoby Brissett handled the trade admirably. After the Colts Zgured out within a few minutes that Scott Tolzein could not remain their starter without Andrew Luck, Brissett was thrust into action.

16 Now, Brissett didn t set the world on Zre he ranked 22 nd in QB Rating, 24 th in YPA, and only had four top-12 (QB1) weeks in 15 starts but, given the circumstances, offensive line play, and lack of surrounding talent no one can knock Brissett too hard for The Colts OL allowed pressure on Brissett on a staggering 40% of his dropbacks last year, second-most in the league. In fact, over the past two individual seasons, the Colts have Znished allowed the second-most and the most on the QB. Even if Andrew Luck returns to full health in 2018, the Colts OL and staggering lack of long-term talent remain a massive concern. As for Jacoby Brissett, the Colts brass likely saw more than enough to keep him around as their long-term backup QB. Brissett will be 26 in 2018 and has two years remaining on his contract. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Andrew Luck get healthy? If so, what round will he slip in 2018 drafts? Can the Colts improve their offensive line this offseason? RUNNING BACKS Frank Gore Soon-to-be 35-years-old, Frank Gore is an unrestricted free agent in 2018 and will likely not return to the Colts next season. Should he decide to continue playing, it appears that Indianapolis will be in the market for more running back depth this offseason either in the draft or free agency. Gore's career is undeniably exceptional. He's now Zfth on the all-time rushing list and is just 75 yards away from surpassing Curtis Samuel for fourth. Gore (14,026 yards) is unlikely to catch Barry Sanders (15,269) but, like Sanders, Gore's path to Canton enshrinement is paved the day he decides to retire eventually wasn't a particularly useful season for Gore he had just two top-12 (RB1) or better weeks and Znished as the RB26 in PPG but his volume alone is a massive accomplishment for a back his age. From ages 32-34, Gore handled at least 260 carries each year and added 101 receptions to his odometer. He's likely on his last NFL legs should he decide to return in 2018, but Gore's long-term success was impeccable. Marlon Mack Just like his Znal year at USF, Marlon Mack s rookie season was a mix of dazzling, cant-miss plays mired with inconsistency. Among qualizers, a staggering 32% of Mack s carries failed to gain any yardage at all third-most among qualized backs (minimum 60 carries). The NFL average is 21%. While Mack will have to gain some semblance of sustainability to be a cog in the Colts rush attack in 2018, it s clear he can contribute as a receiver. Per PFF, Mack averaged 1.40 yards gained per route run as a rookie which is right in the range of Christian McCaffrey (1.45), Leonard Fournette (1.37), and LeSean McCoy (1.37). Of course, the concern for Mack is that the Colts did not give him a shot at a full-time gig even with aging Frank Gore on the roster. Gore played on 54% of snaps compared to Mack s paltry 34%. With the likelihood the Colts add depth to the position this offseason, Mack will stay in the mix for touches in 2018 but the former-fourth rounder is no closer to overtaking the Colts starting gig. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How will the Colts approach RB this offseason? Will Frank Gore hang up his cleats? Can Marlon Mack carve out a consistent role? WIDE RECEIVERS TY Hilton One man who will be happy to see Andrew Luck eventually return is TY Hilton. (Fantasy owners will be happy, too.) Omitting his rookie year, TY Hilton has averaged 16.0 PPR PPG in his career with Andrew Luck versus 11.3 PPG without him. With Brissett at the controls in 2017, Hilton was wildly inconsistent and only produced Zve top-24 (WR2 or better) weeks. The issue, however, was that Hilton did not manage any Znishes between WR25 and WR36 in weekly output. That s right. Hilton either Znished as a top-24 or he failed to even register as a WR3 in Hilton Znished as the cumulative WR27, but that s incredibly skewed by his four big games. Hilton was the WR40 or worse in 11-of-16 games this past year. Like always, when Hilton hits (and busts) it s big. TY Hilton had four 100-yard games in 2017 and backed every single one of them up with hilariously low 3/30, 1/19, 2/23, and 3/14 receiving lines. Even if Andrew Luck returns to full health in 2018, Hilton is best-viewed as a WR2 who gains value in best-ball formats for his week-winning upside. Donte Moncrief 2017 was a season to forget for the soon-to-be 25-year-old, Donte Moncrief. Granted Andrew Luck s absence played a big part in the entire offense falling off but Moncrief appeared in 12 games this past year, parlaying his 47 targets into just 26/391/2. Yikes. Worse yet, Moncrief's down season came in a contract year. After it looked like Moncrief was a young, budding star his career has halted in Over the past two years, Moncrief has battled injuries plus the absence of Andrew Luck and subsequently averaged just 2.7 receptions and 33.2 yards per contest. Moncrief will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove his worth either in Indy or with a new team in 2018.

17 The Colts WR depth if they do not offer Moncrief a second contract is laughably low. Slot man Kamar Aiken is a free agent, leaving Chester Rogers as the Colts' No. 2 receiver on paper heading into the offseason. It's a severe situation. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: If Andrew Luck returns, can TY Hilton bounce back in 2018? What will his ADP be? What will the Colts do for receiver depth this offseason? Does Indy bring Donte Moncrief back on a prove-it deal? TIGHT END Doyle seemed to be the only target that succeeded without Andrew Luck, and while he did only Znish as a TE1 seven times, he still Znished as the overall TE5. Jack Doyle Coming off of a career year Jack Doyle s three-year deal signed last March is looking like a bargain. The only Colts pass catcher that thrived without Andrew Luck was Doyle. Last year, Doyle Znished Zfth among TEs in targets (108), he was second in receptions (80), and sixth in yards (690). Doyle only caught four TDs but his 11.5 PPR PPG was more than serviceable and was good enough for a TE5 Znish. Doyle was a fantastic hoor play, but he only Znished as a top-12 (TE1) option in 7-of-15 games had just one top-three Znish. For reference, the TE6, Delanie Walker, Znished the season with nine TE1 weeks. The TE10, Jimmy Graham, had ten top-12 (TE1) weeks as a largely TD dependent fantasy asset. Still, Jack Doyle cemented himself as an every-down player in 2017 and faces little completion behind him. Erik Swoope is an exclusive rights free agent, has played in just 17 career NFL games and is coming off of a knee injury. No. 3 TE Darrell Daniels who backed up Doyle in 2017 isn t a threat to steal targets. Doyle will likely be a value pick in 2018 drafts again. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Jack Doyle cement himself as a weekly TE1 in 2018? Key Free Agents: CB Rashaan Melvin, RG Jack Mewhort, RB Frank Gore, K Adam Vinatieri, WR Kamar Aiken, S Darius Butler, LB Jon Bostic, LB Barkevious Mingo Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6; 1 in AFC South) st QUARTERBACKS Blake Bortles Jacksonville went 10-6 and made it all of the way to the AFC Title Game in 2017, but all of their success wasn t because of their quarterback. Effectively serving as a game manager for the entire year, Blake Bortles set career season-long lows in attempts per game (32.7) and three-year lows in TDs (21) and YPG (230.4). In an endeavor to hide Bortles, Jacksonville led all teams in total RB carries (527) by nearly a full games worth as only the Bills (51%) were more run-heavy than the Jaguars (50%) this past season. The signal-caller on a run-zrst team, Blake Bortles was not a particularly valuable fantasy asset in He only Znished as a top-12 (QB1) passer in 40% of his starts and was QB18 in PPG. The 56/323/2 Bortles added with his legs propped up what was a low-volume season. Now, the Jags have an interesting dilemma on their hands in With the 29 th overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, the Jaguars would have to move up the board to snare one of the top-four QB prospects in the class. It could be done, but that s probably not a feasible option. With a win now roster that is loaded with talent on offense and defense, the Jaguars are only a QB away from being Super Bowl contenders. Bortles is not the answer. Since entering the league in 2014, Blake Bortles is Zfth from last in QB Rating (80.8) and seventh from last in YPA (6.7) among the 40 QBs with at least 500 attempts in that span. What s more, Blake Bortles is entering into his Zfth-year option in If the Jags exercise his option, they would be on the hook for $19,000,000 fully guaranteed to Blake Bortles. Let that sink in. GM Dave Caldwell can avoid this, of course, by cutting or extending a new contract to Bortles pre-june 1. Jacksonville will test the market for a new QB in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Who will be under center for the Jags in 2018? Will Jacksonville let Blake Bortles walk?

18 RUNNING BACKS Leonard Fournette After Znishing the season as RB8 in PPG, Leonard Fournette s rookie season is getting swept under the rug a bit in favor of acclaim for Alvin Kamara (RB4) and Kareem Hunt s (RB5) years. That s a mistake. Fournette was fantastic in 2017, as he Znished third among all RBs in rush YPG (80) despite facing a ton of attention from opposing defenses and playing injured for half of the season. Per Next Gen Stats, Fournette saw eight or more defenders in the box on 49% of his carries this past season third-most among RBs with at least 150 attempts. What's more, Fournette was hampered by ankle and quad issues for the back half of 2017 and missed three games because of it. While Fournette's volume did not change much because of the ailments down the stretch, his exciency inevitably fell off. Considering Leonard Fournette saw 8+ defenders nearly half of the time, his 80 yards per game was damn impressive in 2017, Before going on the injury report in Week 7 (ankle), Leonard Fournette forced at least one missed tackle on 19.2% of his carries (sixthbest, per PFF) and 4.58 YPC (eighth-best). From then on, Fournette forced at least one missed tackle on just 6% of his carries (last) and only 3.22 YPC (46th-of-47). Interestingly, though Fournette s ankle and quad issues did not slow the Jaguars down from using him copiously. In fact, the opposite was accurate: Fournette's snap rate increased to 73% on average in their Znal seven games (including playoffs) versus the 58% he averaged in his Zrst nine contests. While Fournette s chronic ankle issues remain a concern he s had at least Zve known issues since his 2016 season at LSU he proved he s a foundation back with good enough passing game chops. Jacksonville would be wise to get Fournette rolling via the pass next year, too. For a barometer, Fournette s rookie receptions (2.8) and yards (23.2) per game totals are better than Todd Gurley's Zrst twoyear average (2.2/17.8). Fournette should be a locked in top-12 pick in 2018 drafts. Chris Ivory and TJ Yeldon While the Jags have their foundation back, their No. 2 and No. 3 RB slots are a bit up in the air in Chris Ivory is heading into his age-30 season, and Jacksonville can Znally get out from under his Zve-year, $32M contract made in The Jags' are in a position to save a little cash by cutting Ivory outright pre-june 1. Ivory averaged an abysmal 3.1 YPC on carries with the QB under center this past season, contrasted to Fournette s 4.2 YPC. Meanwhile, TJ Yeldon is entering his Znal year of his rookie deal and will likely stick as the Jags change of pace back. Since Chris Ivory can t play special teams and is going to be 30 this coming year, it d make sense for Jacksonville to keep Yeldon, cut Ivory, and perhaps offer Corey Grant (RFA in 2018) a second contract. Grant was active over Ivory in the Jags Znal two playoff games last season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Leonard Fournette stay healthy for all of 2018? Will Jacksonville elect to look into some offseason surgery to help with Fournette's chronic ankle issues? WIDE RECEIVERS Allen Robinson Robinson's 2017 season was cut short after catching one pass for 17 yards, on which he tore his left ACL. Robinson's injury foreshadowed what a tumultuous, injury-zlled fantasy season for all in However, Robinson s 2018 outlook hinges upon what Jacksonville elects to do with the impending free agent. Allen Robinson's rookie deal is up, and Jacksonville is reportedly interested in using the franchise tag on Robinson if they can't lock him up to a long-term deal before free agency. By all accounts, Robinson's rehab is going well considering he injured his knee in September Robinson should be able to pass a physical by March, just in time for free agency. Clearly, looking forward to Robinson's 2018 outlook is fruitless considering we don't know what direction the Jags' are going to take with his contract. Still, Allen Robinson is only heading into his age-25 season in the next league year which is the same exact age secondyear WR Cooper Kupp will be. Wow. Starting at Penn State with Christian Hackenberg, Robinson has made a career out of elevating poor QBs. Right now, it looks like A-Rob will be back in Jacksonville this coming season perhaps with more QB competition. Marqise Lee Like Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee is also a 2018 unrestricted free agent. With his rookie contract up along with A-Rob s, the Jaguars are already reportedly prioritizing re-signing Robinson over Lee. It makes sense. Per PFF, Robinson has averaged 1.62 yards gained per route run in his career versus Lee s The league average for WRs is around 1.50.

19 What s more, Lee is two years older than Robinson and is heading into his age-27 season. To his credit, Lee turned his career around in Jacksonville after an abysmal Zrst two seasons as he s put a 4.0-catch, 52-yard, 0.2-TD per game stat line down over the last two years. Lee is a Zne complementary receiver, but the Jaguars are making the right move by focusing all of their cash efforts towards re-signing Allen Robinson. Dede Westbrook It was never consistent, but Dede Westbrook hashed at times down the stretch in Coming off of PUP in Week 11 (core injury), Westbrook averaged a modest 3.4/42.4/0.1 (on 6.5 targets) per game receiving line as a rookie. Once elevated off of the PUP, Westbrook led all Jags' receivers in deep targets (13) in his ten games played (including playoffs) and will likely have a bigger role if Marqise Lee (UFA) and Allen Hurns (cap casualty) walk this offseason. It s quite possible Allen Robinson and Dede Westbrook comprise the Jags two-receiver set in 2018, making Westbrook a full-time starter. Allen Hurns After missing 11 regular season games due to injury over the past two years, Jacksonville will likely cut Allen Hurns before free agency begins this offseason. Since signing a new contract worth $40M over four years ($16M guaranteed) in 2016, Hurns has averaged a brutal 3.5 receptions and 45.8 yards per contest across 21 active games. In that span, Hurns has averaged just 1.31 yards gained per route run which is well below league-average (1.50). Jacksonville can save $8M straight up against the cap by cutting Hurns this offseason. It s an easy move. Keelan Cole Another reason Allen Hurns likely won t return in Jacksonville this offseason is due to the emergence of 2017 UDFA Keelan Cole. As a rookie, Cole made best of his opportunity due to the injuries in front of him and played well. Cole made a tremendous impact in the fantasy playoffs this season, parlaying his 25 targets in Week into 16/393/2. Now, to be fair, Cole s production came due in large part to Allen Robinson s season-ending injury in Week 1 and Marqise Lee s high ankle sprain sustained on the 11 th snap in Week 15. While Cole went cold in the playoffs (3/82 on six targets), he can stretch the Zeld and play some out of the slot where he ran 35% of his routes this past season. Jacksonville is only on the hook for $555k due to Cole in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Jags re-sign Allen Robinson? What will they do for depth? Will Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns both not be back in 2018? TIGHT END Marcedes Lewis While the Jags' have no issue combing through their talented depth chart at wide receiver, the same can not be said at tight end. Mainly just a blocker at this point in his career, Marcedes Lewis put up just 24/318/5 this past season. He's now been held under 20 YPG for three-straight individual seasons. Lewis will be 34-years-old in 2018 and is entering the Znal year of his deal. He has a $3.75M cap number this coming year. Tight end is indeed a position the Jags will want to address this offseason. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How will the Jaguars address TE this offseason? Key Free Agents: WR Allen Robinson, WR Marqise Lee, G Patrick Omameh, CB Aaron Colvin, LB Paul Posluszny, RB Corey Grant (RFA) nd Tennessee Titans (9-7; 2 in AFC South) QUARTERBACKS Marcus Mariota The Titans made the playoffs and advanced out of the Wild Card round in 2017, but make no mistake: This past season was one to forget for Marcus Mariota. All of Mariota s stats were down in Starting at the top, Marcus Mariota set career-lows in YPA, touchdown rate, YPG, QB Rating, and yards per completion. He also set a career-high in interception rate. Getting a little deeper into the numbers per PFF, Marcus Mariota s QB Rating when kept clean (78.3; second from last) was worse than his QB Rating when under pressure (82.7; third-best). That s rare was a forgettable year for Mariota, as he Znished as a QB1 just twice all season long. We'll see if new OC Matt LaFleur can get things back on track. The results, for fantasy football, weren t pretty. Mariota Znished the season with just two top-12 (QB1) weeks in 15 games. Furthermore, his 2017 campaign was so weak that CJ Beathard scored more

20 fantasy points per game (14.8) than Mariota (14.0)! However, things are looking up for the soon-to-be 25-year-old this offseason. Mike Mularkey is out of town, taking his rigid, outdated offensive scheme with him. Insert new HC Mike Vrabel and OC Matt LaFleur into the equation, and the Titans are working with an allnew coaching staff to help Mariota grow in year four. The LaFleur hire is particularly interesting. LaFleur has spent his last three NFL seasons coaching under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta (as QBs coach in ) and under Sean McVay in Los Angeles (as OC in 2017). To that point, LaFleur has essentially learned under the two best young HCs the NFL has to offer right now for three-straight years. LaFleur has been attached to the two most play-action heavy teams in 2017 as the Rams OC (29% of pass plays were PA) and in 2016 as Falcons QB Coach (28%). Marcus Mariota led all QBs in YPA on play-action passes (11.1) in 2017, per PFF. Furthermore, the Titans ran three-wide receiver sets on just 39% of plays last year last in the league. In LA, however, McVay/LaFleur had three receivers on the Zeld a league-high 75% of the time miles ahead of the league average (59%). An inhux of three-receiver usage and play-action passes will be very welcome in Tennessee in Marcus Mariota will be a post-hype sleeper for fantasy this coming offseason, and this new potential scheme in Tennessee makes him a strong 2018 buy. The Titans are a team poised for major lift-off in They have the eighth-most cap space available, are loaded with talent on offense, and will be returning four of their Zve offensive linemen in G Josh Kline is the only member of the line without a 2018 contract signed. Marcus Mariota and the Titans offense may Znally take hight next season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Marcus Mariota take a signizcant step forward in 2018 with a new coaching staff? How big of a value will he be in 2018 drafts? RUNNING BACKS Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray The Titans hammer back down the stretch run since DeMarco Murray (knee) missed Tennessee s Znal three games, we Znally got a look at Derrick Henry as a workhorse piece. In Week 17, Henry saw an insane 30 opportunities, 98% snap rate, he hit 117 yards from scrimmage and had one receiving TD. In the Wild-Card Round, Henry ripped up the stat sheet: 25 opportunities, 100% snaps, 191 YSM, and one rush TD. In the Titans road loss in New England, the Titans got behind early but Henry still saw 15 touches (including three receptions), had 49 yards from scrimmage and played on a gigantic 94% of snaps. Furthermore, even when the Titans split carries between Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray it was clear Henry was the better back in This season, 77% of Titans carries came with the quarterback under center. Derrick Henry averaged 4.5 YPC on his under center attempts, while DeMarco Murray averaged 3.6 YPC. This also goes without mentioning that Henry faced a ton of stacked boxes. Per Next Gen Stats, Henry saw eight or more defenders in the box on 50% of his carries last season (second-most among qualized RBs). DeMarco Murray saw eight or more defenders in the box on just 35% of his carries, much closer to league average (33%). The argument in favor of Murray over Henry boiled down to pass-catching and pass protection ability, but in 2017, Derrick Henry had the edge there, too. Henry gained 1.07 yards per route run versus Murray's 0.91 while Murray's pass protection execution rate (95%) was virtually the same as Henry's (94%), per PFF. Finally, there is also no doubt the Titans offense as a whole thrived with Henry on the Zeld versus Murray. That extended to Marcus Mariota, too. Per Sports Info Solutions, Mariota averaged 7.2 YPA (on 205 attempts) with Derrick Henry on the Zeld versus a brutal 5.9 YPA (on 344 attempts) with DeMarco Murray involved. Now going on 30-years-old and coming off his worst career season as a pro, DeMarco Murray will likely have to Znd a new home in The Titans can save $6.5M against the cap with zero dead money by cutting Murray pre-june 1. Obviously, we ve seen Henry produce as a workhorse in small samples and Murray s likely departure opens the door for Henry to dominate in The Titans need to add depth at the position this offseason, but Derrick Henry is walking into a full-time job at last in the upcoming league year. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: With DeMarco Murray likely out of Tennessee, will the Titans view Derrick Henry as their workhorse? What type of depth will they add to the position? WIDE RECEIVERS Corey Davis Davis' rookie year was disappointing, but it wasn't for lack of targets. In fact, even though it may not seem like it, Corey Davis was the Titans lead receiver when active in The Titans target distribution during the 11 games in which both Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews were both active was as follows: Delanie Walker (81), Davis (71), Eric Decker (61), and Matthews (61).

21 Now, there is no doubt the Zfth overall pick in 2017 hashed big at times in particular against New England (5/63/2) but Corey Davis nagging hamstring injury held him back from ever getting locked in with Marcus Mariota. Davis missed most of August, and subsequently all of the preseason, with a balky hamstring. Then, in Week 2, Davis re-aggravated the hamstring issue and missed Zve full games because of it. Davis ended the 2017 regular season with 34/375, averaging 11.0 yards per catch. However, Davis will be a popular breakout pick in 2018 with the HC/OC turnover in Tennessee since he is loaded with talent and has entire offseason to get acclimated and on the same page with Marcus Mariota. Corey Davis just turned 23-years-old, too. He ll likely end up as a sixth or seventh round pick in 2018 when it s all said and done. Rishard Matthews Matthews has been a Zne free agent signing for the Titans, but it s clear he s best suited as No. 2 or No. 3 receiver as opposed to a No. 1. The Titans Zgured that out last year. Matthews role was reduced in favor of Delanie Walker and Corey Davis. This past year, when both Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews were active, Walker averaged 7.4 targets per game while Davis was at 6.5 looks per contest. Matthews saw a paltry 5.5 targets per day. Matthews will need an injury in front of him or a big step forward at age-29 to be a major fantasy asset in He s averaged 3.9 receptions and 58.0 YPG over the last two years, Znishing as the WR39 (2017) and WR23 (2016) in PPR PPG. Matthews is entering the Znal year of his three-year deal and is due $5M in base salary in Eric Decker One of the most disappointing free agent signings of 2017, Eric Decker Znished the season with just 54/563/1 receiving on 5.2 targets per day. Decker Znished as a WR3 (top-36) only three times across 16 games while playing fourth Zddle to Delanie Walker, Corey Davis, and Rishard Matthews. Now an unrestricted free agent, Decker will be 31-years-old in 2018 and will likely have to take a one-year deal in a new home. Decker will probably land as a team's veteran slot WR, where he ran 47% of his routes in 2017 as a Titan. If Decker does indeed leave, 17% of Titans targets will be up for taking. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Corey Davis take the next step in 2018? How will the Titans rotate WRs in 2018? TIGHT END Delanie Walker Coming off yet another productive season in which he Znished as the TE6 in PPG as he tied for third among all tight ends in receptions (74), Delanie Walker is just a consistent force at the position. In three years with Marcus Mariota at the controls ( ), Walker is fourth among all TEs in YPG (58.6) and has Znished as the TE3, TE6, and TE6 in that span. Now entering the Znal year of his two-year extension, Delanie Walker has a $7.0M cap number in 2018 as he begins his age-34 year. It's entirely possible Tennessee restructures Walker's deal to even out his rather large cap Zgure this offseason. If Tennessee decides to just take the $5.4M in cap savings by moving on from Walker entirely this offseason, it will leave second-year man Jonnu Smith behind as the Titans lone capable pass catching TE. Smith is rehabbing a torn-mcl this offseason sustained in the Titans Divisional Round loss to the Patriots. Still, it s most likely that Delanie Walker will be back in Tennessee in 2018 and will, once again, be a solid mid-round TE investment. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Delanie Walker be back in Tennessee in 2018? Or, will the Titans re-structure his deal? Key Free Agents: WR Eric Decker, G Josh Kline, LB Erik Walden, DE DaQuon Jones, K Ryan Succop GRAHAM BARFIELD SENIOR ANALYST Graham is a senior analyst for Fantasy Guru and works closely with statistics to produce quanitative analysis for complementary weekly content. He will be appearing before the season and during the season on The Fantasy Guru Podcast with John Hansen and Joe Dolan. Be sure to follow Graham on Twitter

22 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: AFC North Tom Brolley published on January 25, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Baltimore Ravens (9-7, 2 in AFC North) nd QUARTERBACKS Joe Flacco Flacco s 2017 campaign got off to bad start when he injured his back just before training camp, and he played terribly until the Knal month of the season. Flacco Knished dead last in yards per attempts (5.7) worse than Brett Hundley (5.8) and he was bottom-six in QB Rating under pressure, when kept clean, and when throwing deep in 2017 (per PFF). Flacco completed 352/549 passes for 3141 yards (64.1%, 5.7 YPA), 18 TDs, and 13 INTs and he added 25/54/1 rushing in 16 games. He ended the year as the QB35 with FPG, Knishing ahead of Brock Osweiler and behind Ryan Fitzpatrick. In Weeks 1-16, Flacco Knished as a top-12 QB just three times and outside of the top-20 nine times. He did at least save his best performances for late in the year, Knishing as a QB14 or better in Weeks with 19+ FP in each contest. Flacco will enter his 11 th season at 33 years old next fall, and HC John Harbaugh said the team would consider drafting a QB to potentially start grooming for the next couple years. The Ravens haven t drafted a QB in the Krst Kve rounds of the draft since they took Flacco in Flacco will no doubt be the starting QB in Baltimore next season, but his play has been trending downward the last three seasons, culminating in his worst season as a pro. He ll be off the re-draft radar next summer. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Flacco rebound off his worst season as a pro? RUNNING BACKS Alex Collins After watching the Seahawks running back debacle this season, it s funny to think they may have had the solution in their training camp the entire time. Seattle waived Collins just before the start of the season, and he latched onto the Baltimore practice squad along with Jeremy Langford. Collins quickly rose the ranks in this Ravens backkeld, earning lead runner status by Week 4 over an ineffective Terrance West. The offense was essentially running through him by the end of the season, as he handled 17+ touches in seven straight games to end the year. playoffs Collins posted 212/973/6 rushing (4.6 YPC) and 23/187/0 receiving on 36 targets (8.1 YPR, 63.9% catch rate) while playing 34.9% of the snaps in 15 games. He ended the season as the RB19 with FPG, ranking just behind Lamar Miller and just ahead of DeMarco Murray. In Weeks 8-16, he Knished as a top-12 RB four times, as a top-24 Kve Alex Collins began the season on the Baltimore practice squad but it didn't take long for him to take over as the lead back. We give him the edge in what will likely be an open RB competition for times, and outside the top-36 once. Collins posted 10+ FP in seven of his last nine games, including 16+ FP Kve times. He did lose two fumbles in his Krst three games, which was an issue for him at Arkansas. He cleaned up the issue the rest of the season, keeping a clean sheet in the Knal 12 games. HC John Harbaugh stopped short of anointing Collins as the 2018 lead back during his end of season press conference. The Ravens will likely have a wide-open competition for playing time in this backkeld next training camp, but Collins should open as the early favorite for the early-down role because of his 2017 performance. Buck Allen Allen held this Ravens backkeld together with Danny Woodhead (hamstring) out of the lineup and while Alex Collins slowly emerged as the lead runner. He was also a key contributor on special teams, proving to be very valuable as the #3 RB. Allen posted 153/591/4 rushing (3.9 YPC) and 446/250/2 receiving on 60 targets (5.4 YPR, 76.7% catch rate) while playing 40.8% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the RB27 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Joe Mixon and just behind Frank Gore. In Weeks 1-16, Buck Knished as a top-12 RB three times and as a top-24 RB Kve times. In eight games with Woodhead out of the lineup, he topped 10+ FP Kve times and had 3+ catches seven times. The problem is he did nothing with catches, averaging a league-worst 5.43 YPR among receivers with 30+ catches. Allen was a bit of a pain by the end of the season, vulturing a few short TDs away from Collins. The Ravens have some decisions to make in this backkeld with Dixon looking to factor in after missing all of Allen will be in the plans because of his special teams contributions, but the size of his role in this backkeld will be determined in training camp.

23 Kenneth Dixon Dixon looked to have a path to a major role in this backkeld after the 2016 season. Then the NFL suspended Dixon four games for violating the league s substance abuse policy, and the team went out and signed Danny Woodhead shortly after his suspension was announced. His 2017 season from hell culminated with a torn meniscus in late July, which ended his year before it even got started. And for good measure, he got suspended an additional two games for violating the league s substance abuse policy. YIKES! The good news is that he served his two separate suspensions while on the IR this week, but the th-round will have to compete for a roster spot next summer in this crowded backkeld. At least he should be ready for OTAs, according to HC John Harbaugh. Danny Woodhead Expectations were pretty lofty for Woodhead entering his Krst season with the Ravens, and it showed in his ADP (RB24, 63.4). He never really had a chance to live up to those expectations though, as a hamstring injury on the opening drive of the season derailed his season immediately he even had 3/33 receiving on that drive. Once he did return, he lacked the same explosiveness as a receiver out of the backkeld that we ve come to expect. Woodhead ended up posting 14/56 rushing (4.0 YPC) and 33/200/0 receiving on 39 targets (6.1 YPR, 84.6% catch rate) while playing 28.9% of the snaps in eight games. He did average a solid 5.1 targets/game when he returned from Week 11 on, but he did with those looks and next to nothing on the ground. He never once reached double-digit FP in a game, hitting is head at a measly 9.2 FP in Week 15. Woodhead isn t due ridiculous money over the next two years $2.55 million in 2018 and $3 million in 2019 but the Ravens could decide to go with their young guys in this backkeld. Woodhead will be 33 years old next season and has missed 35 games combined over the last four years. It s fair to wonder if he ll ever make a major impact again. Terrance West The cream eventually rose to the top in this backkeld, knocking West from the prominent role that he held to start the season. Heck, he even cracked the top 100 in our Knal ADP, but his star quickly dimmed after posting 19/80/1 rushing against the Bengals in Week 1. He totaled just 20/58/1 rushing in his Knal four appearances in Weeks 2-5. He went down in Week 5 with a calf injury and he Knished the season as a healthy scratch behind Alex Collins, Danny Woodhead, and Buck Allen. West is the odd man out in the backkeld because of his lack of versatility, and he ll have to look for playing time elsewhere in free agency. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Collins be a one-season wonder or does he have staying power as the lead runner here? Where does Dixon Kt into this backkeld with Collins grabbing hold of the lead-runner role and Woodhead and Allen working as passing backs? Will the Ravens keep Woodhead around or go with a youth movement at RB? Will Allen s role expand at all in this crowded backkeld? WIDE RECEIVERS Mike Wallace Wallace was the only reliable Ravens WR this season, with Jeremy Maclin struggling with injuries and Breshad Perriman continuing his descent into bust territory. QB Joe Flacco struggled to get the ball downkeld all season, but when he did have success throwing it vertically it was usually to Wallace, who can still ny. He s topped YPR in his Krst two seasons with the Ravens after failing to do it four straight seasons between Pittsburgh, Miami, and Minnesota from Wallace posted 52/748/4 receiving on 92 targets (14.4 YPR, 56.5% catch rate) while playing 68.3% of the snaps in 15 games he missed a contest to a concussion. He ended the season as the WR44 with FPG, ranking just ahead of DeVante Parker and just behind Marqise Lee. In Weeks 1-16, Wallace Knished as a top-12 WR just once, as a top-24 WR four times, as a top-36 WR seven times, and outside the top-48 Kve times. Wallace did Knish the season strong, topping 9.8+ FP in each of the Knal eight games. Wallace is a free agent this off-season and he s not guaranteed to be back with the Ravens facing cap issues. Still, Wallace won t likely break the bank as a 32-year-old receiver, and Flacco needs some continuity with his receivers as he tries to rebound from his terrible Jeremy Maclin The Chiefs stunned the league when they cut Maclin this summer, and he was a hot commodity for a couple WRhungry teams. He ended up choosing the Ravens, but he didn t make the impact that they were hoping for. Shoulder, knee, and back injuries riddled his 2017 campaign, forcing him to miss four games and causing him to be ineffective in other games when he did play. Maclin posted 40/440/3 receiving on 72 targets (11.0 YPR, 55.6% catch rate) while playing 62.7% of the snaps in 12 games. He ended the season as the WR59 with 8.5 FPG, ranking just ahead of Keelan Cole and just behind Kenny Golladay. In Weeks 1-16, Maclin never Knished as a top-12 WR, as a top-24 WR three times, as a top-36 WR Kve times, and outside the top-48 seven times. He topped 60 yards just once and caught 5+ passes just twice. Maclin could be playing for his third team in three years. He s a prime candidate to be cut before he s due a $1 million roster bonus on March 16. The Ravens are strapped for cap space and cutting Maclin would save them $5 million, so it looks like the only way he comes back is if he agrees to a pay cut. If he is cut, Maclin might have to settle for a one-year deal on the open market to show that he can stay healthy and still has some good football in him. Breshad Perriman Perriman is quickly going down as a colossal draft bust as a 2015 Krst-round pick. He could only manage 10/77/0 receiving on 35 targets (7.7 YPR, 28.6% catch rate), even playing 49.6% of the snaps in his 11 games. His play was so bad that he earned four healthy scratch designations he missed his other game because of a concussion. He did miss the entire preseason for the second time in three years with a hamstring issue, and he never could get into the swing of things with dropped passes and miscues galore. Perriman hasn t looked the same player he did while at UCF, and his career is certainly at a crossroads heading into the Knal year of his rookie deal.

24 Chris Moore Moore had a bigger role than expected because former Krst-round pick Breshad Perriman continued his descent out of the league. With the Ravens electing to make Perriman a healthy scratch at times to end the season, Moore posted 12/152/2 receiving on 18 targets in the Knal six games. He ended the season with 18/248/3 receiving (13.8 YPR, 47.4% catch rate) while playing 42.7% of the snaps in his 13 games. The Ravens could potentially have some major issues at WR next season. Mike Wallace is entering free agency, Jeremy Maclin is a cut candidate, and Perriman might already be a bust. That means Moore is the only WR guaranteed to return and he could have a potentially large role depending on how everything shakes out in Baltimore. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Does Wallace return as Flacco s #1 weapon? Have injuries ruined Maclin s once promising career or does he a bounce-back season in him? Will Perriman ever make an impact in a Ravens uniform? Will Moore be the only WR to return? TIGHT ENDS Maxx Williams Remember how excited Joe Flacco was when the Ravens drafted receivers Breshad Perriman and Williams in the Krst two rounds of the 2015 draft? Perriman s disappointing career has covered up some of the stench from Williams slow start to his career. Williams did undergo a rare knee surgery last off-season, but his performance as a receiver tailed off as the season went along. He Knished with just 15/86/1 receiving on 18 targets (5.7 YPR, 83.3% catch rate) while playing 41.4% of the snaps in 11 games he missed Kve games to an ankle injury. Williams will get one last chance to make an impact in the Knal year of his rookie deal. Ben Watson It s probably a bad sign for your passing game when a 37-year-old TE coming off a torn an Achilles leads your team in receptions. That was the case for the Ravens, with Watson leading the team with 61 catches. He did next to nothing with those catches too, averaging the second-fewest YPR (8.6) among TEs with 30+ catches only Austin Seferian-Jenkins was worse (7.1). Watson posted 61/522/4 receiving on 79 targets (8.6 YPR, 77.2% catch rate) while playing 64.2% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as TE14 with 8.57 FPG, ranking just behind Cameron Brate and just ahead of Jared Cook. In Weeks 1-16, Watson Knished as a top-12 TE six times and outside the top-18 six times. The Ravens have serious cap issues and they have plenty of young TEs on this roster, so Watson s future in Baltimore is up in the air. He could also retire after 14 years in the league. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Williams reverse the course of his career in the Knal year of his rookie deal? Does Watson play another season and will it be in Baltimore? Key Free Agents: WR Mike Wallace, TE Ben Watson, RB Terrance West, WR Michael Campanaro, TE Crockett Gillmore, C Ryan Jensen, LG James Hurst, RB Alex Collins (ERFA), TE Vince Mayle (ERFA) Cincinnati Bengals (7-9, 3 in AFC North) rd QUARTERBACKS Andy Dalton By the end of the 2017 season, Dalton had more fans in Buffalo than he did in Cincinnati. Dalton s season will be most remembered for his Week 17 4th-down TD pass that knocked the Ravens out of the playoffs and pushed the Bills into the postseason. His campaign was otherwise Klled with lowlights. His completion percentage plummeted nearly 5% from % to 59.9% to below 60% for the Krst time since rookie season in He also averaged a career-low passing yards/game, down from YPG last season. Dalton also averaged 3.4 rushing TDs/season in , but he didn t have a single rushing TD in Add it all up, and Dalton had an absolutely miserable campaign. He completed 297/496 passes for 3320 yards (59.9%, 6.7 YPA), 25 TDs, and 12 INTs and he added 38/99 rushing in 16 games. He ended the season as the QB27 with FPG, Knishing just ahead of Eli Manning and just behind Blaine Gabbert. In Weeks 1-16, Dalton Knished as a top-12 QB just four times and outside of the top-20 six times. He also eclipsed 22+ FP just once and fell below 16 FP seven times. A lot of blame has to be placed on this terrible O-line, which lost stud LT Andrew Whitworth and RG Kevin Zeitler last off-season. It also didn t help that he got absolutely zero contributions from standout TE Tyler Eifert and from #9 overall pick John Ross, who were supposed to be his #2 and #3 receivers this season. Dalton turned into a bit of a trendy pick last summer he was the QB17 with an ADP of 140 but this summer is the time to grab him late in drafts because everything went against him in A.J. McCarron McCarron almost became the next Cleveland quarterback at the 2017 trade deadline, but the Browns somehow bungled it. When he had to play in 2015, McCarron proved to be competent when Andy Dalton was out of the lineup, and the Bengals could once again look to move him this off-season if they get the right offer. McCarron is set to become a restricted free agent, but he could become an unrestricted free agent if he wins his grievance against the Bengals, which is set to be heard on Feb. 15. It wouldn t be shocking if he s a Week 1 starter somewhere in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Good Andy Dalton come to play or is more Bad Andy Dalton in store? Will McCarron be a

25 starting QB somewhere in the league in 2018? RUNNING BACKS Joe Mixon Rookie RBs had a banner year in 2017, but Mixon easily had the most disappointing campaign compared to the Krst six RBs drafted (Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Kareem Hunt). At Krst, he couldn t climb past plodder Jeremy Hill on the depth chart because HC Marvin Lewis didn t want to hand the more talented player the job. And once Mixon did take over as the lead runner with Bill Lazor s promotion to OC in Week 3, Mixon couldn t Knd any running room behind one of the worst O-lines. The Bengals opened up just 1.29 yards before Krst contact (9th-fewest) while the NFL average was 1.41 (per PFF). Mixon posted 178/626/4 rushing (3.5 YPC) and 30/287/0 receiving on 34 targets (9.6 YPR, 88.2% catch rate) while playing 44.6% of the snaps in 14 games. He ended the season as the RB28 with FPG, ranking just behind Buck Allen and just ahead of Matt Forte. In Weeks 1-16, Mixon Knished as a top-12 RB just once, as a top-24 RB Kve times, and outside the top-36 six times. He reached 10+ FP seven times, but he had just one ceiling game, topping 14+ FP once. Mixon topped 65+ rushing just twice, but he started to show some promise late in the year, averaging 4.0+ YPC in Kve of his last six appearances. Of course, a concussion and an ankle injury spoiled his momentum late in the year, forcing him to miss two games and to miss parts of two other games. We think it s time to buy low on Mixon, especially with the Bengals likely to address their weak O-line this off-season. We do have to worry about Giovani Bernard a bit, who showed he was underutilized early in the season with his performance down the stretch, but Gio shouldn t be anything more than a change-of-pace option behind Mixon. He ll likely go in the top-50 once again, and he could prove to be a bargain compared to all the RBs that are going to ny off the board in the Krst two rounds in Giovani Bernard Bernard went from being a guy who didn t have more than 9 touches in his Krst 11 games to being a workhorse, fantasy difference-maker in the Knal Kve weeks of the season with Joe Mixon dealing with injuries. In Week 1-12, Gio ranked as the RB68 with 5.91 FPG before ranking as the RB11 with FPG in Weeks Overall, Bernard posted 105/458/2 rushing (4.4 YPC) and 43/389/2 receiving on 60 targets (9.1 YPR, 71.7% catch rate) while playing 49.0% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the RB35 with 9.48 FPG, ranking just ahead of Tarik Cohen and just behind James White. He posted three straight top-20 performances in Weeks with Mixon out of the lineup. Bernard was returning from an ACL injury suffered late in 2016, which might partially explain his limited role to start the season. Still, he showed late in the year that he should ve been more prominently featured all season long as a change-of-pace option next to Mixon, with plodder Jeremy Hill glued to the bench. Gio will likely be just off the re-draft radar next summer, but he showed he s an RB1 option if Mixon misses time next season. Jeremy Hill Hill s time in Cincinnati has run its course. He never could build off the promising end to his rookie season in 2014, and he turned into a plodding early-down runner the last three seasons. He posted just 37/116 rushing (3.1 YPC) and 4/16 receiving in seven games before an ankle surgery landed him on the injured reserve. The surgery caught Marvin Lewis by surprise and the veteran HC threw Hill under the bus for ending his season early, so it s highly unlikely Hill will be back in Cincy next season. He ll be looking for backup work next season, but he won t be guaranteed a roster spot wherever he lands. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Mixon go down as a bargain and have the campaign that we all expected out of him as a rookie? Will the Bengals actually give Gio a decent-sized role after showing that he s got plenty of juice in the tank late in the 2017 season? WIDE RECEIVERS A.J. Green Green Knished as a WR1 for the Kfth time in his seven-year career, but it sure didn t feel that way for his fantasy owners that drafted him as the WR5 (8.6 ADP). He topped 100 yards just three times after doing it four times in 10 games last season. He also didn t score a TD in Knal month of the season when his owners needed him the most after running off 8 TDs in a 10- game span from Weeks With the offense sputtering for much of the season, Green posted 75/1078/8 receiving on 142 targets (14.4 YPR, 52.8% catch rate) while playing 87.2% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR11 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Stefon Diggs and just behind Adam Thielen. In Weeks 1-16, Green Knished as a top-12 WR Kve times, as a top-24 WR eight times, as a top-36 WR 11 times, and outside the top-48 twice. Green Knished with fewer than 10 FP a disappointing four times, and had just four games with 20+ FP. Green s 67.4 yards/game was a careerlow, even compared to his rookie season (70.4). He also had career-low catch rate (52.8%) by nearly 3% his previous career-low was 55.1% in Unsurprisingly, QB Andy Dalton s completion percentage plummeted nearly 5% from % to 59.9% to below 60% for the Krst time since rookie

26 The only real offensive playmaker on the Bengals, Green underperformed his ADP but still has a good shot for a bounce back 2018 campaign. Green. season in Green could have a big bounce-back campaign at 30 years old next season if the Bengals can improve their terrible O-line to give Dalton a chance to succeed and if they get Ross to be an actual weapon across from John Ross Ross may have had one of the most wasted seasons for a top-10 pick in recent memory. Ross did deal with knee and shoulder issues starting with the preseason Knale, but the Bengals also never had any kind of gameplan for Ross rookie season. He ended up playing in just three games before a shoulder injury he was hiding from the team landed him on the IR. He Knished his rookie season with no catches and he fumbled on his only touch of the season, playing on just 8.3% of snaps in his three games. The Bengals seriously couldn t Kgure out a way to throw a couple bombs to a guy with 4.22 speed. HC Marvin Lewis was even apparently thinking of using Ross at CB he did play some CB at Washington in college because of injuries in the Bengals secondary. Ross had major durability red nags entering the NFL draft because of knee and shoulder issues, so we have to have major concerns about him staying available in the future. Ross is still a hold for disappointed Dynasty owners, but he s certainly off the re-draft radar entering the offseason. Tyler Boyd Boyd will be most remembered in Buffalo of all places for his game-winning TD against the Ravens in Week 17. For as dramatic as a catch as that was, it actually capped a pretty non-descript and disappointing campaign for the 2016 second-round pick. After catching 54 passes as a rookie, Boyd Knished with just 22/225/2 receiving on 32 targets (10.2 YPR, 68.8% catch rate) while playing 46.6% of snaps in 10 games. He missed Kve games to a sprained knee and Marvin Lewis made him a surprise healthy scratch on TNF in Week 2. He was also thought to be wanted for drug and traqc charges for a July car crash July in Pennsylvania, but it turned out that it was just his car involved in the accident. After failing to top 3+ catches in his Krst eight games, he posted consecutive 5-catch games in Weeks 16-17, so he at least ended the season with some positive momentum. Boyd should ve had a bigger role out of the slot this season, but the Bengals mismanaged their WR depth chart behind A.J. Green. Boyd should make a bigger impact out of the slot in Brandon LaFell No offense to LaFell, who s had a rock-solid eight-year career to this point, but this Bengals offense will be toiling in mediocrity again if LaFell is playing a prominent at the end of the 2018 season. The Bengals desperately need John Ross, Tyler Boyd, and/or Josh Malone to overtake LaFell as the #2 WR option next season. LaFell posted 52/548/3 receiving on 89 targets (10.5 YPR, 58.4% catch rate) while playing 87.1% of the snaps in 16 games, averaging 7.8 FPG (WR64). He s on the books to make $2.6 million in the Knal of his deal next season, and he ll likely be kept around as insurance in case these young Bengals WRs disappoint again. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Green get back to elite WR1 status after a slightly underwhelming season? Will the Bengals Kgure out how to use a top-10 pick with 4.22 speed? Will the Bengals get Boyd more involved as a slot receiver after a strong Knish to the season? Can these young Bengals receivers push LaFell to the bench? TIGHT ENDS Tyler Eifert Eifert is certainly talented enough to be a premier tight end, but his body hasn t cooperated through Kve seasons. In our Knal ADP data, Eifert was the eighth TE off the board at 78.3 overall, so fantasy owners were certainly expecting a big 2017 season from him. He s played in just 10 games over the last two seasons 2 games in 2017 and just 39 of 80 possible games (48.8%) to start his career. Eifert needed three back surgeries in the span of about 10 months (December 2016-October 2017), and a knee scope. His latest back operation will reportedly keep him out 4-6 months, so there s a chance he could try to prove he s healthy again by the time free agency opens in March. He ll likely have to sign a one-year, prove-it deal with some other organization in hopes of actually staying healthy and reestablishing himself as one of the better TEs in the league again. Tyler Kroft Starting TE Tyler Eifert s future in Cincinnati is certainly in nux after another lost season because of injuries. The Bengals could very well elect to move on this off-season and make Kroft the starting TE in 2018, with fellow third-year TE C.J. Uzomah behind him. Kroft posted 42/404/7 receiving on 62 targets (9.6 YPR, 67.7% catch rate) while playing 84.9% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the TE19 with 7.78 FPG, ranking just ahead of O.J. Howard and just behind Vernon Davis. In Weeks 1-16, Kroft Knished as a top-12 TE Kve times and outside the top-18 nine times. Much like his predecessor Eifert, Kroft was highly dependent on red-zone work to come through for fantasy but also very eqcient because of his huge frame (6 6, 260 pounds). He converted caught 6 of his 7 targets inside the 10-yard line, all of which went for TDs inside the 5-yard line. His longest score came from 16 yards away. Kroft, a 2015 thirdround pick, certainly won t be a sexy fantasy option if he s the starter next year, but it wouldn t be shocking if he snuck into the low-end TE1 conversation in the non-ppr formats because of his ability at the goal line. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Bengals let Eifert walk or give him one more shot to stay healthy? Can Kroft, as the potential starter, continue to be a weapon for Andy Dalton down by the goal line? Key Free Agents: TE Tyler Eifert, RB Jeremy Hill, C Russell Bodine, OT Andre Smith, ILB Kevin Minter, DT Pat Sims, RB Cedric Peerman, OT Eric Winston, QB A.J. McCarron (RFA)

27 th Cleveland Browns (0-16, 4 in AFC North) QUARTERBACKS DeShone Kizer Kizer is a big athletic QB with a lot of arm talent at just 22 years old, but HC Hue Jackson and company did just about everything they could to break Kizer for the rest of his career. The Browns threw the second-round pick right into the Kre, and it obviously didn t go well with the team failing to win a game. He threw a league-high 22 INTs, six more than #2 Cam Newton, and Jackson did him no favors early in the season with a hair-trigger Knger when it came to pulling his young QB in game. Kizer completed 255/476 passes for 2894 yards (53.6%, 6.1 YPA), 11 TDs and 22 INTs in 16 games. He padded his fantasy production with 77/419/5 rushing. He ended the year as the QB25 with FPG, Knishing just ahead of Blaine Gabbert and just behind Tyrod Taylor. During Weeks 1-16, he Knished as a top-12 six times but also fell outside of the top 30 a whopping Kve times. Even with everything seemingly going against him this season, Kizer kept competing and never threw in the towel. He threw 8 TDs and averaged 6.7 YPA in his Knal eight games compared to just 3 TDs and 5.4 YPA in his Krst eight games. Hopefully, this season didn t break him for the future and he can make a career for himself in a much better situation. The Browns will likely draft their QB of the future this spring, but Kizer will likely hang around here as the backup and could even make some starts if they play it slow with the young QB they draft. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Browns draft their franchise QB at the top of the draft? Does Kizer have a future in Cleveland? RUNNING BACKS Duke Johnson DOOOOOKIE quietly had one of the more consistent fantasy seasons for an RB2/FLEX in It probably went unnoticed for anyone that didn t own him because he played on a winless Browns team he was voted the team MVP. Johnson posted 82/384/4 rushing (4.2 YPC) and 74/693/3 receiving on 93 targets (9.4 YPR, 79.6% catch rate) while playing 51.7% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the year as the RB14 with FPG, Knishing just ahead of Rex Burkhead and just behind Christian McCaffrey. In Weeks 1-16, Duke Knished as top-12 RB four times, as a top-24 RB 10 times, and outside the top-36 just three times in Weeks He also topped 10+ FP in 12 of his 16 games thanks to catching 3+ passes in 14 games. Not bad for a guy who was the RB35 with an ADP of 94.2 at the end of the summer. Duke is pretty locked into his passing-back role heading into the Knal year of his rookie deal, but his snap share could grow or shrink depending on what they do at RB this off-season. Isaiah Crowell is set to hit free agency and could leave town, but the Browns could be interested in drafting workhorse RB Saquon Barkley with either the #1 or #4 overall pick this spring. Isaiah Crowell Crow has been a pretty effective early-down runner the last two seasons, averaging more than 4.0 YPC both years. The problem was that he played on dreadful teams that rarely gave him the chance for volume playing with leads in the second half of games. The Browns trailed on 80% of their offensive plays, the most in the league by far. Crow posted 206/853/2 rushing (4.1 YPC) and 28/182/0 receiving on 42 targets (6.5 YPR, 66.7% catch rate) while playing 49.7% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as Duke Johnson actually Knished as the RB14 in PPR, Knishing outside the top-36 just three times. the RB41 with 8.97 FPG, ranking just behind T.J. Yeldon and just ahead of Jamaal Williams. In Weeks 1-16, Crow Knished as a top-12 RB twice, as a top-24 RB Kve times, and outside the top-36 seven times. It took him until Week 7 to top 10+ FP in a game, but he did it six out of eight games between Weeks He proved to be quite a disappointing investment as the RB14 with an ADP of Crow is a free agent this off-season and there s already talk that the Browns could let him walk to go after the top prospect in the draft, Saquon Barkley, with either the #1 or #4 overall pick in the draft. Crow will be one of the more coveted RBs in free agency. If he lands in a half decent spot for playing time, his fantasy potential could be on the rise playing on a team with some actual positive game scripts after playing on a Browns team that went 1-31 over the last two seasons. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Does Crowell have a future with the Browns or will he continue his career somewhere else? Will Duke stay heavily involved as a receiver even if the Browns bring in a top-night RB through the draft?

28 WIDE RECEIVERS Josh Gordon We didn t think we d be writing about Gordon at the end of the season, but Gordon s surprising return was just one of the many twists and turns 2017 brought us in the fantasy world. The NFL reinstated Gordon in November after suspensions kept him out of action for nearly three years his last game was back on Dec. 21, 2014 before he returned on Dec. 3, He didn t show many signs of rust in his return, stepping right into the lineup and becoming the #1 option in this offense, which also speaks to how bad this offensive roster was. Gordon posted 18/335/1 receiving on 42 targets (18.6 YPR, 42.9% catch rate) while playing 85.0% of the snaps in Kve games. He averaged FPG, which would rank him as the WR31 over the entire season. In four games in Weeks 13-16, he Knished as a top-24 WR once, as a top-36 twice, and outside the top-48 once. Remarkably, Gordon will turn just 27 years old April (it feels like he should be 30 by now!), so he could have prime years ahead of him if he can keep his head on straight, which is obviously a big IF with his track record. If the Browns clear up their QB spot at the top of the draft and Gordon continues on the trajectory he showed at the end of 2017, he ll be a top-50 fantasy pick. Corey Coleman Coleman, a 2016 Krst-round pick, has been unable to get his career off the ground in his Krst two seasons because two separate broken hand injuries that have cost 13 of his Krst 32 games. His season got off to a nice start with a 5/53/1 receiving performance in Week 1 before breaking his hand again in Week 2. He then put together strong performances in his Krst two games back (9/144/0 combined) before plummeting in the Knal Kve games with Josh Gordon back and becoming the #1 WR. A Coleman dropped pass on fourth down in the season Knale, which would ve given the Browns a chance to end their winless campaign, epitomized his and the Browns season. Coleman posted 23/305/2 receiving on 58 targets (13.3 YPR, 39.7% catch rate) while playing 77.9% of the snaps in 9 games, averaging 7.3 FPG. In Weeks 1-16, he Knished as a top-12 WR once and as a top-24 WR three times in eight games. It s certainly way too early to write off Coleman s career after two injury-plagued campaigns, and he could certainly have some bounce-back appeal late in fantasy drafts next summer if it looks like the Browns QB situation will be improved. The problem is that Gordon is clearly the #1 option when on the Keld, and young TE David Njoku will be a breakout candidate next fall. Coleman will be out to prove he s a good sidekick to Gordon and more than just a situational deep threat. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Gordon get all the way back to his pre-suspension form with a full off-season of workouts to prepare for 2018? Can Coleman stay healthy and start to live up to his Krst-round draft status? TIGHT ENDS David Njoku It s always tough for rookie TEs to make huge impacts, but we can t totally blame the supremely talented Njoku for doing more. For whatever reason, HC Hue Jackson kept Njoku on a leash all season long even though the Browns Knished without a victory. Playing on just 45.4% of snaps in 16 games, Njoku posted 32/386/4 receiving on 60 targets (12.06 YPR, 53.3% catch rate). He Knished as the TE28 with 5.92 FPG, ahead of Coby Fleener and behind Greg Olsen. To put his lack of playing time into perspective, fellow rookie Krst-round TEs Evan Engram (74.3%) and O.J. Howard (64.3%) saw signikcantly more playing time despite facing more competition for snaps. Even with his lack of playing time, Njoku nashed plenty of athleticism and ability as a receiver. Hopefully, Jackson will unleash Njoku in 2018 and push Seth Devalve to the background. Njoku will turn just 22 years old in July, and he has huge upside for the future, especially if he gets some competent QB play going forward. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Jackson actually commit to Njoku and can the young TE make the leap to stardom in his second season? Key Free Agents: RB Isaiah Crowell, WR Josh Gordon (ERFA), QB Kevin Hogan, FB Dan Vitale (ERFA). Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3, 1 in AFC North) st QUARTERBACKS Ben Roethlisberger Big Ben s retirement talk at the end of last season and his sarcastic retirement talk after their Week 5 loss to the Jaguars was clearly a little premature. He s still running the show in Pittsburgh (just ask old OC Todd Haley), and he s still running it at an extremely high level. Big Ben completed 360/561 passes for 4251 yards (64.2%, 7.6 YPA), 28 TDs, and 14 INTs and he added 28/47 rushing in 15 games he sat out Week 17 for rest. He ended the season as the QB9 with FPG, Knishing just behind Kirk Cousins and just ahead of Matthew Stafford. Big Ben also went down swinging in the Divisional Round, throwing for 459 yards, 5 TDs, and 1 INT in a loss to the Jaguars. In Weeks 1-16, Big Ben Knished as a top-12 QB seven times and outside the top-20 just three times. He Knished as the QB14 or better in nine straight games from Week 7 on, averaging FPG in that span. He also threw for multiple TDs in eight straight games, including the playoffs. His play clearly picked up in the second half of the year, and it s no coincidence that JuJu Smith- Schuster s numbers skyrocketed in the same span, as the rookie gave Roethlisberger a legit #2 WR option. Of course, it also doesn t hurt

29 to have a generational WR like Antonio Brown at his disposal. Smith-Schuster, the youngest player in the NFL, should only get better and Brown hasn t shown any signs of slowing down. Roethlisberger also just missed a couple deep connections throughout the season with Martavis Bryant. There s no reason to think Big Ben shouldn t be in the low-end QB1 conversation again with his cast intact barring a Le Veon Bell departure. The only thing that could slow Big Ben is if he starts to show his age or if new OC Randy Fichtner, who has a strong relationship with Ben, is in over his head. Roethlisberger should go off the board around his same ADP (103.2, QB12) from Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How much longer can Big Ben stay near the top of his game? RUNNING BACKS Le'Veon Bell once again dominated, Knishing the season as the RB2. There's a lot of wear and tear on this young stud, but he'll again be one of the top RBs taken in 2018 drafts. Le Veon Bell What a truly special player. Bell has Knished as an RB1 twice and as an RB2 once in the three seasons in which he s played 12+ games since Bell posted 321/1291/9 rushing (4.02 YPC) and 85/655/2 receiving (7.7 YPR, 80.2% catch rate) while playing 88.0% of the snaps in 15 games he rested in Week 17. He ended the season as the RB2 with FPG, behind only Todd Gurley as the top fantasy back. In Weeks 1-16, he Knished as the RB17 or better in all but the season opener, with 12 performances of RB9 or better. He topped 20+ FP nine times, including Kve straight games to Knish the season. Bell s chances of re-signing with the Steelers is still really high, but his act has started to rub some in the organization the wrong way. Before their loss to the Jaguars in the playoffs, Bell said he would consider sitting out the 2018 season if he received the franchise tag again. He then missed nearly all of Saturday s walkthrough practice and showed up late to the stadium on gameday. Of course, he went out and dominated anyway, totaling 155 yards and 2 TDs in the loss. Bell is such a transcendent enough talent at the position that the Steelers will continue to put up with his BS to keep him on the Keld. Bell said at the end of January that he s in active talks with the Steelers and that they were a lot closer to a deal than in The only way the Steelers refuse to give him a long-term contract is if they have legitimate fears of him breaking down, which has to be a concern. If you include the playoffs, he crossed 400+ touches in each of the last two seasons and he saw 749 touches in three years at Michigan State before he even got to the NFL. He clearly has a lot of wear and tear at just 26 years old, but his elusiveness does help him avoid more contact than most RBs. Bell hasn t lost a step yet, and he Kgures to be among the top RBs again, no matter where he plays. Todd Gurley will likely be the Krst RB and Krst overall pick next season, but Bell will be in the conversation for the #2 pick with David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. James Conner The Steelers drafted Conner in the third round to be Le Veon Bell insurance, but the rookie ended up landing on the IR with a torn MCL, costing him the Knal two games of the season. It s a bit of a concern since he also tore his MCL while at Pitt. As one might expect, Conner played sparingly behind workhorse RB Le Veon Bell, seeing just 7.2% of snaps in 14 games. He posted just 32/144 rushing (4.5 YPC) and didn t register a catch on his lone target. If the Steelers can t keep Bell in the fold for the future, there s a chance that Conner will get a crack to lead this backkeld. With that said, we d also expect them to bring in competition if the Steelers can t retain Bell. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Steelers pony up to keep Bell in the fold for the future? Can he maintain his high level of play after another heavy workload? Would the Steelers give Conner the chance to lead the backkeld if they decide to let Bell walk? WIDE RECEIVERS Antonio Brown The all-time great talks have already started for Brown as he s set to enter his 30s in Jerry Rice shouldn t be scared just yet, but Brown has now Knished as the WR1 in three straight seasons. He just missed out on four straight years but Odell Beckham edged him out for the top spot in Brown posted 101/1533/9 receiving on 163 targets (15.2 YPR, 62.0% catch rate) while playing 88.5% of the snaps in 14 games he missed the Knal two contests with a torn calf. He ended the season as the WR1 with FPG, more than a full point ahead of WR2 DeAndre Hopkins. In Weeks 1-16, Brown Knished as a top-12 WR nine times, as a top-24 WR 10 times, as a top-36 WR 11 times, and outside the top-48 three times. AB had few more stinkers than we re used to seeing with three games with fewer than 10 FP, but he had eight absolute monster performances with 24+ FP. Brown dropped 7/132/2 receiving on 11 targets in the Steelers Divisional Round loss to the Jaguars, even without his usual explosiveness because of his calf injury. We ve yet to see any signs of Brown slowing down, and he ll once again be the top WR off draftboards next season. Early indications are that fantasy owners will be rushing to draft RBs in the Krst round, but Brown is still a virtual lock to be a top-half of the Krst round pick for an impressive fourth straight season.

30 JuJu Smith-Schuster JuJu, the youngest player in the NFL in 2017, rose to national fame because of his stolen bike ordeal. It turned out that the second-round pick was also really good at football. He quickly climbed ahead of Eli Rogers and Martavis Bryant to the #2 WR role by the middle of the season and never looked back. Smith-Schuster posted 58/917/7 receiving on 14 targets (15.8 YPR, 73.4% catch rate) while playing 73.9% of the snaps in 14 games missing a contest to suspension and another to a hamstring injury. He ended the season as the WR18 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Mike Evans and just behind Brandin Cooks. In Weeks 1-16, Smith- Schuster Knished as a top-12 WR three times, as a top-24 WR Kve times, as a top-36 WR seven times, and outside the top-48 six times. He came into his own starting in Week 7, ranking as the WR5 with FPG in the Knal 11 weeks of the season. With Antonio Brown out of the lineup in Weeks 15-17, JuJu posted a ridiculous 21/332/2 receiving with a kick-return TD mixed in, ranking as the WR1 in that span with FPG. Smith-Schuster could be a force to be reckoned playing alongside Brown, as the youngster continues to improve over the next couple years. We compared him to Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree in the pre-draft process, and those comparisons looked spot in on Year One. He s versatile enough to win on the outside and the inside, making big plays after the catch and dominating over smaller CBs out of the slot. Smith-Schuster s arrow is pointing straight up after his rookie season. AB will limit his potential ceiling a bit, but JuJu is still the type of upside player worth considering as a top-75 draft pick next summer. Martavis Bryant Bryant s return after a yearlong substance-abuse suspension didn t go anything as planned. Bryant started slow out of the gate and got passed by a more talented WR in rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, which culminated in him demanding a trade and being suspended a game and demoted to scout team in Week 8. Bryant became the third Kddle in this passing attack, and he never came close to living up to his lofty 52.2 ADP (WR25). He posted 50/603/3 receiving on 84 targets (12.1 YPR, 59.5% catch rate) while playing 64.9% of the snaps in 15 games. He ended the season as the WR57 with 8.7 FPG, ranking just ahead of Kenny Golladay and just behind Tyrell Williams. In Weeks 1-16, Bryant Knished as a top-12 WR just once, as a top-24 WR three times, as a top-36 WR four times, and outside the top-48 six times. He fell below 10 FP an extremely disappointing 11 times. As much as he would like the Steelers to move him, there s no way they sell him for pennies on the dollar at his bargain-bin price of $705,000 for Smith-Schuster is the superior prospect at this point, but there s a chance Bryant, at just 26 years old, can regain his old form as a deep threat with a full offseason working with Big Ben. Bryant averaged 17.3 YPR in his Krst two seasons before seeing his average dip 12.1 in He did just miss a few deep throws this season, and he could be a sneaky buy-low candidate in the middle to late rounds if just a few of those deep throws go his way in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How long can Brown stay at the top among NFL WRs? Will JuJu and Antonio form one of the more formidable WR tandems in the league? Can Bryant and Big Ben connect on a few more deep throws to get Bryant back to WR3 status? TIGHT ENDS Vance McDonald The Steelers acquired McDonald for a 5th-round pick just before the start of the season, but he was never able to make much of an impact. He Knished with just 14/188/1 receiving on 24 targets (13.4 YPR, 58.3% catch rate) while playing 39.9% of the snaps in 10 games back, knee, and ankle issues forced him to miss six games. McDonald did have a monster game in the playoffs, posting 10/112/0 receiving on 16 targets in their loss to the Jags in the Divisional Round. Jesse James saw most of the playing time as the blocking TE, but McDonald s role as the receiving TE grew in the second half of the season, with a pair of 4/52 receiving games in Weeks 14 and 16. McDonald is the better receiving threat at TE for the Steelers, and his role could grow next season with a full offseason to learn the offense and to build some chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger. Jesse James James was a hot Waiver Wire add for some after he scored 2 TDs in Week 1 against the Browns. Unsurprisingly, he came crashing back to earth, scoring just one more TD the rest of the season he could have had an additional score if not for the controversial overturn on his potential game-winning play against the Patriots. James Knished the year with just 43/372/3 receiving on 63 targets (8.7 YPR, 68.3% catch rate) while 79.5% of the snaps in 16 games. He Knished as the TE26 with 6.14 FPG, behind Martellus Bennett and ahead of Greg Olsen. James does little after the catch, averaging just 8.5 YPR in his Krst three seasons, and he has just 7 TDs despite his huge frame (6 7, 261 pounds). He ll continue to be an unappealing fantasy option, especially if Vance McDonald can grow his role as the receiving TE with a full off-season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can one of these TEs emerge as a fantasy relevant option or will they cancel each other out? Will McDonald emerge as a streaming option with a full off-season of reps with Big Ben? Key Free Agents: RB Le Veon Bell, WR Justin Hunter, RB Stevan Ridley, RB Fitz Toussaint, DT Daniel McCullers, OLB Arthur Moats, ILB Sean Spence, OT Chris Hubbard, K Chris Boswell (RFA), WR Eli Rogers (RFA), FB Roosevelt Nix (RFA), OLB Anthony Chickillo (RFA), P Jordan Berry (RFA), CB Mike Hilton (ERFA), TE Xavier Grimble (RFA). TOM BROLLEY

31 SENIOR WRITER Tom is a senior writer for Fantasy Guru, working closely with John, Joe, and Graham to produce many of the site s top articles. Tom handles any fantasy questions that come into the Fantasy Guru Twitter account during the season. He can also be heard on The Fantasy Guru Podcast throughout the year, including during the season on the Down to the Wire podcast with Paul Kelly. Be sure to follow Tom on Twitter

32 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: AFC West FantasyGuru published on January 24, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Denver Broncos (5-11; 4 in AFC West) th QUARTERBACKS Trevor Siemian Last year, we were impressed by the fact that Siemian, a lowly regarded prospect out of Northwestern, managed to look solid as the Broncos starter, chucking 18 TD vs. 10 INT, while averaging 7.0 YPA. But we also couldn t shake the feeling that Siemian had hit his ceiling. His 2017 season won t do anything to dispel that notion. Siemian beat out youngster Paxton Lynch for the Broncos starting job for the second straight year under a second coaching staff, but that s more of an indictment of Lynch at this point, because Siemian was terrible in Playing in 11 games with 10 starts Siemian posted 206/349 passing (59%) for 2285 yards (6.5 YPA), with 12 TD and 14 INT. His FPG ranked him 30 th among all QBs with Yve or more appearances in Siemian Ynished as a top-12 QB three times, but all of them came in the Yrst six weeks of the season (and the Yrst Yve games from the Broncos). From that point, he was atrocious, playing his way out of the lineup until injuries forced him back in. Over his Ynal six games of the year, Siemian threw just 4 TD against 8 INT, and he averaged a poor 5.9 YPA. Siemian enters the off-season requiring surgery on his left shoulder, the second consecutive season he ll need surgery on the same shoulder (though, reportedly, for different injuries). The fact that it isn t a throwing shoulder injury means Siemian should recover just Yne, but his play this year certainly suggests his future in the NFL is as a backup. Paxton Lynch The Broncos Yrst-round QB in 2016, Lynch has now gone two seasons, under two different coaching staffs, without outright winning the Broncos starting QB job. Combined with bad injury luck, and the Broncos are likely to replace Lynch before he ever wins the starting job, undisputedly. Lynch opened training camp in a competition with Trevor Siemian, and while he was losing the competition anyway, he suffered a throwing shoulder injury in the third preseason game that held him out until midseason. Once Siemian started playing poorly, Lynch was inserted in Week 12, but left that game with a high ankle sprain that kept him out until Week 17. He started two games in 2017, going 30/45 (66.7%) for 295 yards (6.6 YPA) with 2 TD and 3 INT. He was sacked on a whopping 16.7% of his dropbacks, indicating the inability to process information quickly enough, which has been his biggest issue in the limited sample we ve seen of him. It s not entirely fair to write off Lynch after just four starts, but he now has an uphill climb to being even a mediocre NFL starter, and it s unlikely to be in Denver. What we ve seen of him in two seasons has been poor, and multiple coaching staffs agree. It s pretty obvious Lynch won t be Denver s starter headed into Brock Osweiler Osweiler was signed by the Broncos during the summer once Paxton Lynch went down with a shoulder injury, signed to back up Trevor Siemian. However, injuries to Siemian and Lynch (plus Siemian s struggles) led to Osweiler starting four games for Denver. He went 96/172 (55.8%) for 1088 yards (6.3 YPA) with 5 TD and 5 INT. His adjusted net YPA was an abysmal 4.94, though it was still better than Lynch s sub-3.0 number, and was actually much better than the mark of 4.34 he had in his brutal 2016 season with Houston. But Osweiler was predictably terrible in his four starts, and it seems highly unlikely he ll be back in Denver next season. Chad Kelly The talented but troubled Kelly was a seventh-round pick of the Broncos in April, but missed his entire rookie year with wrist and knee injuries. The Broncos have no answer at QB on their roster, so there have been crazier things suggested than Kelly potentially making an impact next year, but he clearly has an uphill climb. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Simple, and the same question we had last year: who will start at QB for Denver in 2018? RUNNING BACKS CJ Anderson It was a bizarre year for CJA, in that he got off to a hot start, really slumped in the middle of the season, but had a surge of usage after the Broncos Yred OC Mike McCoy in late November. Overall, CJA Ynished with 245/1007/3 rushing (4.11 YPC) and 28/224/1 receiving on 40 targets (70% catch rate, 8.00 YPR). His FPG ranked him 24 th among RBs with Yve or more appearances, so he was the deynition of a low-end RB2 he certainly didn t kill your team. But you get the feeling things could have been so much better. He Ynished as a top-12 RB on just two occasions, basically bookending the fantasy season with an overall RB1 Ynish in Week 2 against Dallas, and then an RB4 Ynish in Week 16 against Washington. CJA Ynished as a top-24 RB, however, on six separate occasions, and four of those six occasions came from Week 11 onward three of them came after McCoy was Yred. Anderson played more than 50% of the Broncos snaps in 10 of 16 games, bottoming out with under 40% in four consecutive games from Weeks 9 through 12, the

33 Yrst three of which were McCoy s Ynal three games as OC. The Broncos opted to essentially bench Jamaal Charles after that point, and Anderson Ynished the fantasy year with games of RB18, RB32, RB14, and RB4 in Weeks In all, we still get the feeling he s a better player than the Broncos give him credit for, and we wonder what he ll look like in 2018 if the Broncos bring in a competent QB to run the offense, something they lacked all season. That said, the Broncos could choose to totally revamp their backyeld, and Anderson can be let go with no dead money. That may be key if Denver chooses to pursue a high-priced veteran option at QB, like Kirk Cousins. CJA is a balanced back with plenty left to offer, but will he be in Denver next year? Jamaal Charles The veteran Charles played in 14 games for the Broncos this year, and things obviously didn t go the way he wanted them to. He posted 69/296/1 rushing (4.3 YPC) and 23/129/0 receiving on 30 targets (82.1% catch rate, 5.6 YPR). His 5.11 FPG wasn t even enough to rank him in the top 80 among RBs in PPR. Charles appeared as a top-36 RB just three times in 14 games, and as a top- 24 RB just once all the way back in Week 3. His season-high in snap share came in Week 13 at 31.9%, but he was under 10% in his next two before ending the year on the bench. Charles closed out the year as a healthy scratch despite playing his former team the Chiefs in that game, something he was publicly not happy about. There are few positives to take from Charles age 30 season (he turned 31 in December), but the key one is that he stayed healthy, which may help him earn some looks as he enters free agency in Devontae Booker After a hugely disappointing rookie season in 2016, Booker s season in 2017 was just more of the uneventful type. He missed all of training camp and then the Yrst three games of the regular season with a wrist injury, and then proceeded to play in all 13 games from that point on. He posted 79/299/1 rushing (3.8 YPC) and 30/275/0 receiving on 38 targets (78.9% catch rate, 9.2 YPR). He averaged 7.18 FPG, which ranked him 58 th at the RB position. Booker Ynished as a top-24 fantasy RB three times in 13 games, adding a fourth as a top-36 RB. But he never Ynished higher than RB15 (Week 11), and he didn t have enough consistent value to really be worth a roster spot for fantasy teams. We thought we were going to get a second-half surge from him when he played 58.5% of the Broncos snaps against the Bengals in Week 8, then 44.1% the next week against Oakland, but those two games were his highest numbers of the whole season as CJ Anderson took over down the stretch. Booker is a strong receiver, but in two seasons he s been a plodder as a runner, and he s had fumbling problems. There s no guarantee he has a future in this organization. De Angelo Henderson The Broncos rookie sixth-round pick in 2017 played in just Yve games, seeing 7 carries for 13 yards and 2 receptions for 36 yards and a TD. Of his 9 touches, 8 came in Weeks 16 and 17. He didn t do a ton to stand out, and given he was an old rookie turning 25 in November we tend to doubt the Broncos will clear the way for him to take a gig next year without Henderson explicitly earning it. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Which of these backs if any will be back in Denver in 2018? WIDE RECEIVERS Demaryius Thomas DT is a gifted receiver, but receivers in the NFL can only do so much when it comes to overcoming poor QB play, and Thomas tried his best in 2017 to make the most of the Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxton Lynch triumvirate of suck. Playing in all 16 games for the sixth consecutive season, DT failed to top 1000 yards receiving for the Yrst time in that stretch. He posted 83/949/5 on 140 targets (59.3% catch rate, 11.4 YPR). He Ynished 22 nd among WRs in PPR with FPG. Thomas was a useful weekly starter for fantasy, but much like in 2016, he was more of a supporting piece on your roster than a true championship asset. He Ynished as a top-12 WR in just three games, and as a top-24 WR in just four more. But he ranked as a top-36 WR 11 times, so those in leagues with three starting WRs mostly got their money s worth from DT. But he had 10 or more catches and 100 or more receiving yards just once each, and both came in the same game (against the Giants in Week 6, which was the beginning of the Broncos precipitous slide). DT was held below 5 catches in just four games, but he scored just 5 TD, and never more than one in a game. So Thomas was a joor play for the second straight season. There s obviously fantasy value in that, but it s frustrating to watch a player with his skill set be limited to The talent is obviously there for both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but it remains to be seen how the QB position will shake out in 2018, as both wideouts were capped by poor QB play FP a week. Hopefully, the Broncos will improve at QB this off-season and truly unlock Thomas potential the way Peyton Manning did. Emmanuel Sanders 2017 was an extremely frustrating year for Sanders, not simply because of the awful level of QB play the Broncos had all season long, but because he battled through injuries. Playing in 12 games (and playing about a quarter of his snaps out of the slot, according to ProFootballFocus), Sanders posted 47/555/2 on 92 targets (51.1% catch rate, YPR). He averaged 9.54 FPG, which ranked him 52 nd among all WRs in PPR. Sanders posted a strong game in Week 2 against Dallas, with 6/62/2 on 8 targets, ranking him as the overall WR2 for the week. At that point, we thought Sanders would be a good candidate to replicate his 2016 season,

34 in which he had a lower joor but much higher ceiling than teammate Demaryius Thomas. However, Sanders would not score a TD the rest of the season, in large part because he suffered an ankle injury in Week 6 against the Giants that cost him four games and hampered him in many others the rest of the year. Sanders WR2 Ynish was his only top-12 WR Ynish of the season, and he added just one more top-24 Ynish. He had Yve Ynishes as a top-36 WR in 12 games, but Ynished outside the top 50 in the other seven. In other words, he was a weak jex option. The ankle injury was a huge factor, of course, as was the horrendous QB play. Let s hope both get Yxed this off-season and Sanders becomes a nice value pick in Bennie Fowler The Broncos primary slot WR when they went three-wide in 2017 (a big slot at 6 1, 212), Fowler Ynished the year with 29/350/3 receiving on 56 targets (51.8%, YPR). He Ynished with 5.13 FPG and ranked as a top-36 WR on just two occasions Week 1 and Week 12. It s hard to know how productive he would have been had the Broncos had actual QB play, but the fact that he typically played over Cody Latimer was a good sign the Broncos will try to retain him. He is an impending restricted free agent. Cody Latimer The 2014 second-round pick Latimer had a career year in 2017, his fourth NFL season. Of course, that involved him playing in 11 games and posting 19/287/2 receiving on 31 targets (61.3%, YPC). Latimer more than doubled his career total numbers up to this point, even though he missed several games with knee and thigh problems. Latimer is a free agent in 2018, and the 6 2, 215-pound receiver probably showed enough to get a camp invite somewhere, but perhaps not enough for Denver to make him a priority re-sign this off-season. Carlos Henderson A third-round rookie WR out of Lousiana Tech, the promising Henderson missed his entire rookie season with a torn left thumb ligament. He was expected to compete for slot duties as a rookie, but will now have to wait until At age 23, he has plenty of time ahead of him, but will the Broncos look for an insurance policy this off-season (re-signing Bennie Fowler or Cody Latimer, perhaps), given Henderson was arrested in January for possession of marijuana? It s not a serious offense, but it s not what the Broncos wanted to see after his lost rookie campaign. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Thomas and Sanders rebound to high-end fantasy receivers, presuming the Broncos improve at the QB position? Will Henderson get a shot to be the Broncos #3 WR? Will they re-sign Fowler or Latimer? TIGHT ENDS Jeff Heuerman Heuerman played in 14 games in 2017, catching 9 passes for 142 yards and 2 TDs on 21 targets (42.9% catch rate, 15.8 YPR). He s now averaged over 15.0 YPR in each of his two NFL seasons but has just 9 catches in each of those two seasons. The bad news for Heuerman is that the Broncos cut AJ Derby midseason, ostensibly to give Heuerman a big chance of stepping up, but he never did it, despite his snaps rising above 30% in Yve of his Ynal six games, after doing that in no games previous. The Broncos will have to reassess their TE position this off-season, as Heuerman s jashes may not be enough to justify keeping him. Jake Butt The Broncos spent a Yfth-round pick on Butt in April, knowing full well he d likely have to redshirt given he tore his ACL in his Ynal bowl game with the University of Michigan. Come OTAs, Butt will be 15 months removed from the tear, so he should be ready to try to earn a job. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Butt return from injury and make an impact? Will the Broncos have a fantasy relevant TE in 2018? Key Free Agents: QB Brock Osweiler, WR Cody Latimer, WR Bennie Fowler (RFA), RB Jamaal Charles, TE Virgil Green, T Donald Stephenson, LB Todd Davis, DE Jared Crick, OL Allen Barbre, DE Billy Winn, G Billy Turner, LB Shaq Barrett (RFA), C Matt Paradis (RFA). Kansas City Chiefs (10-6, 1 in AFC West) st QUARTERBACKS Alex Smith Smith just put together an excellent statistical season the best of his 13-year career but as only a few QBs can do, it still felt underwhelming at the end of the season with another early jameout in the postseason. After torching the Titans in the Yrst half and building a 21-3 lead, Smith threw for just 33 yards in the second half of their epic collapse in the Wild Card Round. He completed 341/505 passes for 4042 yards (67.5%, 8.0 YPA), 26 TDs, and 5 INTs and he added 60/355/1 rushing in 15 games he sat out Week 17 for rest. He ended the season as the QB4 with FPG, just ahead of Aaron Rodgers and just behind Carson Wentz. In Weeks 1-16, Smith Ynished as a QB1 nine times and outside of the top-20 four times. He had Yve nuclear performances, topping 29+ FP Yve times, including three times in Weeks 4-7. The Chiefs keep hitting their heads off the ceiling with Smith at QB, and they re likely to move on from him this off-season to give 2016 top-10 selection Patrick Mahomes a chance to take the Chiefs to the promised land. Smith is dues $17 million in the Ynal year of his deal, but the Chiefs may be unable to unload him with so many teams looking for QB help this

35 off-season. Teams like the Browns, Cardinals, or Bills could be looking for bridge-year QBs to potential rookies drafted this spring. For fantasy purposes, Smith s situation is unlikely to get better than throwing to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, so his stock is likely to be down a bit next summer. Patrick Mahomes Mahomes is the QB of the future in Kansas City, and we ll Ynd out soon if the future starts in Alex Smith s time in Kansas City is obviously running out. The Chiefs made an aggressive move to trade into the top 10 to select Mahomes. He needs signiycant polish, but there s no doubt Andy Reid sees a lot of Brett Favre, his former pupil, in Mahomes. He won his professional debut in Week 17, completing 22/35 passes for 284 yards and 1 INT against the Broncos. He showed off his strong arm plenty, averaging 8.1 YPA even without the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Smith played well in 2017, but the Chiefs once again jamed out early in the playoffs. And the fact that the Chiefs took such a bold step at the QB position is indicative of Smith s limitations, and the organization is tired of hitting their head off the ceiling with Smith at QB. Mahomes will likely get the chance to go from a 2017 developmental prospect to a sexy 2018 fantasy pick because of his upside. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Where will Smith play QB next season? If Smith is gone, can Mahomes make a quick transition from prospect to star? RUNNING BACKS Kareem Hunt We loved Hunt before the draft and touted him all throughout the summer, even before Spencer Ware s season-ending knee injury in the third preseason game. Well, it didn t take long for Hunt to pay immediate dividends, scoring 3 TDs and racking up 246 scrimmage yards in the Yrst game of the 2017 NFL season. Hunt s 246 yards from scrimmage were the most any player has ever had in their Week 1 debut since That impressive debut propelled him to lead the league in rushing yards, posting 272/1327/8 rushing (4.9 YPC) and 53/455/3 receiving on 63 targets (8.6 YPR, 84.1% catch rate) while playing 64.8% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the RB5 with FPG, ranking just behind Alvin Kamara and just ahead of Melvin Gordon. In Weeks 1-16, Hunt Ynished as a top-12 RB seven times, as a top-24 RB 11 times, and outside the top-36 just once. He started and Ynished his rookie season with amazing stretches of play. He scored 6 TDs in his Yrst three NFL games and 5 TDs in his Ynal four games, bookending the middle of the season when he went nine games without a TD. Hunt Ynished the season with 1,782 scrimmage yards tenth-most all-time among rookie RBs. Ware will be back next season, but there s no guarantee that he ll be all the way to full health and HC Andy Reid will likely only use him as a change-of-pace option. Reid s inconsistent usage of his rookie RB at times in 2017 was frustrating, but Hunt will be locked in as a RB1 to start next season and he ll be a Yrst-round pick in fantasy drafts. Spencer Ware We wanted nothing to do with Ware this summer and everything to do with rookie Kareem Hunt. We knew that Hunt was the superior player and that it would only be a matter of time before he became the featured back in Kansas City. Well, Hunt s timeframe was sped up dramatically after Ware tore his LCL and PCL in the third preseason game. He ll be in a race to be ready for the start of training camp, and he won t be guaranteed a roster spot coming off a major injury. The best-case scenario is that Ware is totally healthy and becomes the change-of-pace option behind the clearly superior Hunt. Charcandrick West Even with Spencer Ware (knee) out of the mix this season, West s role shrunk with rookie RB Kareem Hunt becoming a workhorse in this backyeld. West posted 18/72 rushing (4.0 YPC) and 27/150 receiving on 34 targets (5.6 YPR, 79.4% catch rate) while playing 25.5% of the snaps in 13 games. He missed a game for personal reasons, a contest because of a concussion, and the season Ynale because of an illness. West s role may shrink next season even more next season if Ware is back to full strength off his knee injury. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Hunt duplicate his successful rookie campaign? Can Ware return to full health and be a change-of-pace option behind Hunt? What role will West have if a healthy Ware is back in the fold? WIDE RECEIVERS Tyreek Hill Hill proved that he was more than just a gadget player in 2017, transforming himself into a true #1 WR. Half of his TDs as rookie in 2016 came on the ground or on special teams (6/12) while 7 of his 8 scores came as a receiver in Only 69.0% of his scrimmage yards came through the air in 2016 (593/860) while 95.2% of his yards came as a receiver in 2017 (1183/1242). Hill Ynished the year with 75/1183/7 receiving on 105 targets (15.8 YPR, 71.4% catch rate) and just 17/59 rushing while playing 80.0% of the snaps in 15 games he rested in the season Ynale. He ended the season as the WR7 with FPG, ranking just behind Michael Thomas and just ahead of Davante Adams. In Weeks 1-16, Hill Ynished as a top-12 WR No longer a gadget player and now a true No. 1 WR, Hill could see even more production if Mahomes takes over starting QB duties in 2018.

36 more production if Mahomes takes over starting QB duties in four times, as a top-24 WR eight times, as a top-36 WR 10 times, and outside the top-48 twice. He scored 10+ FP in 11 of his 15 games this season, so he developed into a surprisingly safe fantasy option. It s hard to believe, but Hill could have even more potential the next couple years playing with Patrick Mahomes. The talented but raw QB prospect has an extremely strong arm to better take advantage of Hill s elite speed than Alex Smith has been able to in his Yrst two seasons. Hill has some boom-or-bust potential as a top-36 pick next summer, depending on how well Mahomes transitions to the starting job if that is indeed the plan at QB for the Chiefs. Chris Conley Conley season was cut short after Yve games as a ruptured Achilles took him down in Week 5. He posted 11/175/0 rushing on 16 targets (16.0 YPR, 68.8% catch rate) while playing 91.1% of the snaps in Yve games. Conley has yet to do much through three seasons, even with heavy playing time when he s been on the Yeld the last two years. He ll be in a battle with Robinson for playing time next summer, who Ylled in for him on the outside this season. QB Alex Smith has been unable to support a second fantasy WR the last couple years, but Patrick Mahomes could prove to be better at spreading the ball around. Albert Wilson Wilson picked a good time to have a career year as he heads into free agency for the Yrst time. Wilson posted 42/554/3 receiving on 62 targets (13.2 YPR, 67.7% catch rate) for 9.0 FPG (WR55) while playing 62.7% of the snaps in 13 games he missed three contests because of a hamstring in the middle of the season. Wilson is unlikely to have a huge market as a diminutive (5 9, 200 pounds) slot receiver, but he should have a few pursuers. His old OC Matt Nagy, who is the new HC in Chicago, could even be interested in bringing him to the WR-needy Bears. Demarcus Robinson We were intrigued by Robinson as a fourth-round pick in 2016, and he stepped into a more prominent role after Chris Conley ruptured his Achilles in Week 5. Unfortunately, Robinson couldn t do anything as the X receiver either, just like Conley. Robinson posted 21/212/0 receiving on 39 targets (10.1 YPR, 53.8% catch rate) while playing 56.1% of the snaps in 16 games. Robinson did step up in their playoff loss, posting 4/57/1 receiving against the Titans in the Wild Card Round. Robinson will battle it out with Conley for playing time next training camp, but there s not a ton of hope for fantasy relevance unless Patrick Mahomes proves to be much more effective at getting a second WR consistently involved. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Did Hill hit his ceiling in 2017 or does have even more room to grow with Mahomes at QB? Can a switch to Mahomes make a second WR fantasy relevant in this offense? Will Wilson cash in off his career year? TIGHT ENDS Travis Kelce Kelce Ynished as the TE2 for the second straight, but he had an even bigger fantasy impact because his touchdown luck reversed. Kelce scored 8 TDs in 2017 after scoring just 14 TDs in his Yrst three seasons and just 4 TDs in 2016 despite 85 catches. Kelce Ynished 2017 with 83/1038/8 receiving on 122 targets (12.5 YPR, 68.0% catch rate) while playing 90.2% of the snaps in 15 games he rested in the season Ynale. He ended the season as the TE2 with FPG, ranking behind just Rob Gronkowski for the top spot. In Weeks 1-16, Kelce Ynished as a top-12 TE 11 times and outside the top-18 four times. He also had four monster performances, clearing 24+ FP in those contests. Kelce was headed toward another monster game in the Wild Card Round, hauling in 4/66/1 receiving in the Yrst half against the Titans before a concussion knocked him out of the game. Even with QB Alex Smith potentially heading out of town, Kelce is locked in as the TE2 in fantasy drafts next summer after Gronk, which will likely make him a top-50 pick. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Kelce make a move to become the TE1 over Gronk? Key Free Agents: DT Bennie Logan, WR Albert Wilson, QB Tyler Bray, WR De Anthony Thomas, OLB Kevin Pierre-Louis, OG Zach Fulton, RB C.J. Spiller, FB Anthony Sherman, P Dustin Colquitt, DE Jarvis Jenkins, CB Phillip Gaines, CB Kenneth Acker, OG Jordan Devey, CB Terrance Mitchell (RFA). nd LA Chargers (9-7; 2 in AFC West) QUARTERBACKS Philip Rivers Even though the Bolts failed to make the playoffs, 2017 was, by all means, a successful season. Los Angeles had a point differential of +83, ninth-best in the NFL. On offense, the Bolts Ynished Yfth in yards per play (5.9), seventh in Yrst down percentage (33.6%), and were 12 th in points per drive (1.92). Philip Rivers stood at the center of the Chargers success in Rivers was electric this past season, Ynishing the regular season Yfth in YPA (7.9), ninth in QB Rating (96.0), and 11 th in TD Rate (4.9%). After three-straight seasons Ynishing outside the top-ten fantasy signal-callers, Philip Rivers re-emerged as the QB7 in 2017 and held one of the best joor/ceiling combinations for mid-tier QB1 s. For example, Rivers Ynished as a top-16 passer in 80% of his starts during

37 the fantasy regular season (Week 1-16). The QB8 Matthew Stafford only did so in 60% of his contests. With all of his key contributors on offense re-signed, Philip Rivers enters the 2018 season as an indisputable top-ten fantasy QB. The Bolts OL need improvements, as only LT Russell Okung received positive pass protection marks from PFF along the Chargers offensive line. In fact, the Chargers allowed pressure on Rivers on 37% of his dropbacks (eighth-most). LA is still a team poised to be an AFC contender next year, but they will, once again, be in the market for help in the trenches. Getting 2017 second-rounder (No. 38 overall) OG Forrest Lamp back off his torn-acl suffered his rookie season will help. Rivers is entering his age-37 season and has two years left on his extension, made in mid With a rock solid defense, loads of talent on offense, and one of the best veteran QBs in the league the Chargers are sneaky Super Bowl contenders in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Philip Rivers maintain top-ten status in 2018? Will the Chargers OL play improve? RUNNING BACKS Melvin Gordon Gordon may not be the most ercient running back in the league, but all he does is score fantasy points. Opportunity is king here. Over the past two seasons, Gordon has Ynished as the RB5 (2016) and RB6 (2017) in PPR PPG. In that span, Gordon has been a high-joor/high-ceiling fantasy commodity much like Philip Rivers in Over the past two combined years, Gordon has Ynished as a RB2 (top-24) or better in a healthy 82% of his games. For reference, uber joor/ceiling back Le Veon Bell has Ynished top-24 in 96% of his games over the last two years while consistent stud Ezekiel Elliott s top-24 rate is 88%. Gordon is clearly not amongst the elite backs, but for fantasy football, his consistency is a welcome sight. Of course, Gordon owns one of the best workloads in all of fantasy. Over the last two years, Gordon s 21.9 touches per game are Yfth-most while he's averaged snap rates of 75% (2016) and 70% (2017) in that span. Heading into his age-25 season and Ynal year of his rookie deal, the Chargers should continue to make Melvin Gordon their centerpiece on the ground and feed him copious targets in the passing game. After spending a Yrst-round pick on him in 2015, the Bolts view Gordon as a workhorse piece and have one year to keep shoveling opportunity his way until his contract is up. Austin Ekeler and Branden Oliver The Chargers No. 2 and No. 3 RB slots are far from settled. Austin Ekeler emerged as a former UDFA in 2017 and is a Yne change-of-pace back, but he s still a slightly under-sized small school player. Los Angeles likely views Ekeler as a rotational piece he did turn 74 touches into 539 yards from scrimmage (7.28 yards/touch) but the Bolts won t be shy adding a little more depth behind their workhorse Melvin Gordon in Meanwhile, Branden Oliver rehabbed his Achilles tear and was 100 percent healthy after missing the entire 2016 season. Still, Oliver slipped behind Ekeler on the depth chart mid-season and ended 2017 with just 109 yards from scrimmage on 41 touches. Soon-to-be 27-years-old, Oliver is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Melvin Gordon make it three-straight years in the top-six fantasy RBs? Will the Chargers add depth behind him? WIDE RECEIVERS Keenan Allen After a bit of a slow start to the year, Keenan Allen caught Yre after the Chargers Week 9 bye. In the Bolts Ynal eight games, Allen lost his mind catching 62 balls, hitting 845 yards, and scoring Yve TDs in that span. After averaging 68 YPG in his Yrst eight contests of 2017, Allen torched defenses for 106 YPG in his Ynal eight. For fantasy, Allen began the Yrst eight games of the season as the WR24, but Ynished 2017 as the WR4 in PPG behind Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, and Antonio Brown. Amazingly, Allen is moving towards his age-26 season as a Yve-year pro in 2018 and he is entering the meat of his contract extension. Keenan Allen positively rose to WR1 status both in fantasy and for the Chargers last year and has now averaged 10.2 targets per game over his last 25 healthy contests from Since 2018 will likely feature an RB-heavy top-15, Allen may end up being a massive value in the mid-second round of fantasy football drafts.

38 Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, and Travis Benjamin After Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen, the rest of the Chargers supporting cast on offense were just that: Low-volume supporters. Since Keenan Allen (27%), Melvin Gordon (14%), and Hunter Henry (14%) comprised 55% of team targets and a monstrous 68.5% of red-zone opportunities there simply was not enough usage to go around to support a joor for anyone else. This past year, Tyrell Williams only saw 12% of targets, while Travis Benjamin saw just 11% and, when active, rookie wideout Mike Williams saw a paltry 7% of Philip Rivers pass attempts. Tyrell Williams and Benjamin did comprise just over 40% of team air yards, but their lack of target volume completely squashed any fantasy viability. Tyrell averaged 2.7/45.5, Benjamin put up 2.1/35.4, while Mike Williams had 1.1/9.5 in ten total games played. Of course, both Williams and Benjamin s production combined would supply a solid WR2 in fantasy football. On that front, the Chargers have three big decisions to make at wide receiver. First, will the Bolts re-sign Tyrell Williams? He is a restricted free agent in 2018 and is expected to be back in LA next year on a team-friendly deal. The most important thing for Keenan Allen's 2017 season was that he stayed healthy, helping him to Ynish as a top-5 WR in PPR. Second, Travis Benjamin's contract is a bit of over-pay for a No. 3/4 receiver. Benjamin is set to make $5.8M in 2018 and the Chargers could straight up save $2M against the cap by cutting him free. Benjamin's four-year, $24M deal signed in 2016 isn't looking particularly valuable, given his low-volume role. Finally, and most importantly, what in the world does LA make of Mike Williams in his sophomore year? Williams missed the Chargers Yrst six games of 2017 last year dealing with complications from a back injury sustained in minicamp but he is apparently back to full health. Just 23-years-old and now with an entire offseason to acclimate to the offense, Philip Rivers is expecting big things for Williams. We ll see. Among rookies to play at least ten games, Mike Williams became one of just 33 WRs all-time to be selected in the Yrst-round and average less than 20 YPG in their Yrst year. For fantasy, the former Yrst-rounder Williams is likely going to get Yrst crack at the No. 2 wideout slot behind Keenan Allen but his volume will be contingent upon Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin s status with the team. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: What round will Keenan Allen go in 2018 drafts? Will he be a value? Can Mike Williams emerge in Year Two? Will Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin be around in 2018? TIGHT ENDS Hunter Henry Even though his season ended abruptly and on injured-reserve (lacerated kidney), Hunter Henry s second year with the Chargers as a rousing success. Per PFF, only Rob Gronkowski (2.40) averaged more yards gained per route run than Henry (2.05) in the regular season. Wow. Henry played 65% of snaps this past season largely splitting snaps with veteran Antonio Gates, but he is on a crash course for a breakout 2018 season. Over the Ynal month before getting injured in Week 15, Hunter Henry put up 13.3 PPG which would have been good enough for the TE4 on the full year. It s only been in small samples, but Hunter Henry has the makeup of a future stud fantasy TE1. Henry is 6-5, 250lbs, incredible on a per route basis, and can play split out in the slot or out wide. A former early-second round pick, Hunter Henry looks like he s on the career path of Zach Ertz (6-5, 249lbs, former early-second rounder in the NFL Draft). Like Ertz, too Hunter Henry will be 24-years-old as he enters his third pro year. Henry will undoubtedly be one of our favorite mid-round TEs in Antonio Gates Gates had an incredible pro career, but he is an unrestricted free agent in 2018 and will be entering his age-38 season if he decides to play one more year. GM Tom Telesco mentioned in early-january that he is uncertain over Gates future status. Right now we re in wait-and-see mode. Before Hunter Henry went down, Antonio Gates was a part-time player averaging a paltry 44% snap rate and putting up 20/189/2 across 14 games of action. A future Yrst-ballot Hall-of-Famer, Gates Ynished as a top-12 (TE1) tight end in every single season from After a fantastic, long career Antonio Gates is on his last legs and may Ynally hang up his cleats this offseason.

39 Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Is 2018 Hunter Henry s year? Will Antonio Gates hang his cleats up? Key Free Agents: WR Tyrell Williams (RFA), S Tre Boston, LG Matt Slauson, RG Kenny Wiggins, TE Antonio Gates, LB Korey Toomer, S Adrian Philips (RFA), RB Branden Oliver Oakland Raiders (6-10, 3 in AFC West) QUARTERBACKS Derek Carr Ynished as a top-12 QB just 3 times all season and we'll see his ADP drop considerably this summer, making him an intriguing pick with a new OC. Derek Carr Carr steadily improved through his Yrst three seasons, culminating in some MVP talk in 2016 before a broken Ynger and a broken leg derailed his season. Well, Carr stayed off the tracks in 2017, regressing back to his rookie season form in 2014 after a disastrous campaign for him and the Raiders. Carr completed 323/515 passes for 3496 yards (62.7%, 6.8 YPA), 22 TDs, and 13 INTs in 15 games. He added just 23/66/0 rushing and is averaging just 90.3 rushing yards/season without a rushing TD, so he has no upside as a runner. Carr ended the season as the QB23 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Tyrod Taylor and just behind Marcus Mariota. In Weeks 1-16, Carr Ynished as a top-12 QB a miserable three times and outside the top-20 Yve times. He fell below 16 FP six times and topped 20+ FP Yve times. According to PFF, Carr was under pressure on just 27% of his dropbacks in 2017 (3rd-fewest), but his QB Rating under pressure was 40.8 (4th-worst). He also tied with Deshone Kizer for the league high in INTs on passes thrown 20+ yards downyeld with 7. Carr was hurt by drops by his receivers, as the Raiders had the second-most drops (35). But even if you adjust for dropped passes, his adjusted completion percentage would only be 16 th among 29 qualiyers. It also didn t help that he missed a game to a transverse process fracture in his back, which hindered him for much of the season. New HC Jon Gruden s top priority in his Yrst season will be getting Carr headed back in the right direction. New OC Greg Olson said as much in his introductory press conference, We grow as Derek Carr grows. We drafted this guy to be that franchise quarterback. We feel like he has the potential to be that guy that can be here and play for 10 more years. It s up to us to try and get that out of him. The team s success in 2018 will be hinging on a bounce-back campaign from Carr. After being drafted as the QB7 with an ambitious ADP of 83.6, Carr is likely to fall outside the top-120 this summer. He ll be much more appealing at that price tag, especially if Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree can get back on the right track, as well. rd Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Carr get his career back on track after a disastrous 2017? RUNNING BACKS Marshawn Lynch Beast Mode s return to the NFL and to his hometown team didn t go quite as scripted with the Raiders having a miserable season, but it was no fault of Lynch s. Lynch posted 207/891/7 rushing (4.3 YPC) and 20/151/0 receiving on 31 targets (7.6 YPR, 64.5% catch rate) while playing 48.3% of the snaps in 15 games he missed a game due to suspension. He became the 31st player to top 10,000 rushing yards, joining LeSean McCoy as players to do it in Lynch ended the season as the RB23 with FPG, ranking just ahead of C.J. Anderson and just behind Tevin Coleman. In Weeks 1-16, Lynch Ynished as a top-12 RB three times, as a top-24 RB seven times, and outside the top-36 Yve times. His play surged in the second half of the season from Week 9 on, posting 10+ FP in seven of eight games and averaging FPG. His 50 missed tackles forced were the sixth-most at the position (per PFF), and his performance in the second half of the year indicates he still has some juice left in his powerful legs. New HC Jon Gruden said at his introductory press conference that he d never met Lynch, and Gruden will surely be lobbying to for Lynch to play another season. Gruden even hired Lynch s old O-line coach and pal Tom Cable, who s zone-blocking schemes allowed Lynch to succeed in Seattle starting in Trying to predict what Beast Mode is going to do is like trying to predict the unpredictable, but all signs are pointing toward Lynch chasing more glory in his hometown.

40 DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard These second-year RBs couldn t differentiate themselves behind veteran RB Marshawn Lynch, who sucked up most of the production in this backyeld. Washington posted 57/153/2 rushing (2.7 YPC) and 34/197/1 receiving on 45 targets (5.8 YPR, 75.6% catch rate) while playing 22.5% of the snaps in 15 games. Richard posted 56/275/1 rushing (4.9 YPC) and 27/256/1 receiving on 36 targets (9.48 YPR, 75.0% catch rate) while playing 21.6% of the snaps in 16 games. It s dircult to see either of these guys having fantasy relevance if Lynch returns, unless one of these backs takes control of the change-of-pace snaps behind Beast Mode. We d give a slight edge to Washington if Lynch would retire for a second time, but they d likely split up the workload pretty evenly and they d potentially look for some outside help. It s tough to get too excited about either of these prospects heading into Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Lynch decide to play one more year after surging at the end of last season? Will Washington and Richard continue to split up duties behind Lynch? WIDE RECEIVERS Amari Cooper A seemingly ascending player through his Yrst two seasons, Cooper had a shocking fall from grace in his third season. Fantasy owners were ready for a full-blown star-making season, drafting him as the WR9 with and ADP of 18.4 overall. It was defensible since his production jumped from 72/1070/6 receiving as a rookie to 83/1153/5 in 2016, and he had the pedigree of a being a #4 overall pick in Well, what wasn t foreseen was that Cooper s drops would continue, his conydence would wane, and his once ascending QB, Derek Carr, would also took major steps back. Cooper posted 48/680/7 receiving on 96 targets (14.2 YPR, 50.0% catch rate) while playing 79.1% of the snaps in 14 games he missed two games to an ankle injury. He ended the season as the WR33 with FPG, ranking just behind Will Fuller and just ahead of Pierre Garcon. In Weeks 1-16, Cooper Ynished as a top-12 WR twice, as a top-24 WR just twice, as a top-36 WR six times, and outside the top-48 a whopping six times. His 44-point fantasy explosion in Week 7 against the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football accounted for an absolutely ridiculous 27.8% of his fantasy production (44.0 FP of FP) for the season. Cooper looked like a truly broken player at different points, but he also jashed his huge potential at times, especially in his performance against the Chiefs. New HC Jon Gruden s top two priorities in his Yrst season will be getting both Carr and Cooper headed back in the right direction. Each player s success and the team s success in 2018 could be hinging on bounce-back campaigns. We ll see how the summer shakes out, but we re predicting that fantasy owners will be rolling the dice on Cooper s talent again by taking him as a top-50 pick. Michael Crabtree What will the Raiders do with Crabtree after a dysfunctional 2017 campaign? He started the season on Yre, ranking as the WR8 with FPG through Week 8, but he went tumbling downhill in Weeks 9-17, ranking as the WR56 with Crabtree posted 58/618/8 receiving on 101 targets (10.7 YPR, 57.4% catch rate) while playing 65.4% of the snaps in 14 games. He ended the season as the WR25 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Alshon Jeffery and just behind Chris Hogan. In Weeks 1-16, Crabtree Ynished as a top-12 WR four times, as a top-24 WR six times, as a top-36 WR nine times, and outside the top-36 three times. Crabtree s production tailed off signiycantly in the second half of the season, and he ran Yve routes before being ejected for his Yght with CB Aqib Talib in Week 12. He also reportedly became a headache in the locker room and earned a benching in Week 17 after doing little in the season Ynale after going catchless the week before in Philly. The Raiders don t have any dead money remaining in Crabtree s contract and can save $7.7 million for 2017 and $16 million over the next two years by severing ties with him this off-season. It s going to be a tough decision since he has a reasonable remaining contract, and he arguably should be still near his prime at 30 years old to start This is still an ideal spot for Crabtree, especially if Cooper can regain his form and take some pressure off him as a #2 WR. Hopefully, HC Jon Gruden decides to work with him to try and get this passing attack back on the right track. Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson The Raiders passing game regressed with Derek Carr taking major steps back, which didn t help these secondary WRs make much of an impact. It also didn t help that TE Jared Cook was more of presence in this passing game than Clive Walford has been in the past. Roberts posted 43/455/1 receiving on 65 targets (10.6 YPR, 66.2% catch rate) while playing 78.3% of the snaps in 15 games. Roberts scored 5 TDs in each of his Yrst two seasons, but he saw just 1 target inside the 10-yard line this season after seeing 12 combined in Meanwhile, Patterson posted 31/309/0 receiving on 42 targets (9.97 YPR, 73.8% catch rate) while playing 42.1% of the snaps in 16 games. He also fell below 30 yards/kick return for the Yrst time since 2014 he averaged 28.3 but he did add 13/121/2 rushing. Patterson is always going to be a better real-life player than fantasy option, and Roberts will be off the radar unless the Raiders elect to cut Michael Crabtree. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Cooper put his dreadful season behind him and get back to #1 WR status? Will Gruden decide that Crabtree isn t worth the headache or give him another chance after a dysfunctional season? Will the Raiders count on Roberts and/or Patterson to step up if they cut Crabtree or will they bring in outside help? TIGHT ENDS Jared Cook Cook statistically had one of the best seasons in his nine-year career, but it was ultimately yet another frustrating campaign from the typically disappointing Cook. He posted 54/688/2 receiving on 86 targets (12.74 YPR, 62.8% catch rate) while playing 76.9% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the TE15 with 8.43 FPG, ranking just behind Ben Watson and just

41 ahead of Eric Ebron. In Weeks 1-16, Cook Ynished as a top-12 six times and outside the top-18 ten times, so he was a complete boomor-bust option. He Ynished with fewer than 20 yards receiving Yve times, including four times in a Yve-week stretch in the fantasy playoffs from Week Cook will certainly have more appeal as an option in the middle of the Yeld if Derek Carr can rebound from his dreadful 2017 campaign. Like he was for much of the 2017 season, Cook will start the 2018 as a streaming option because of his inability to put up consistent production. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Cook become anything more than a streaming option? Key Free Agents: QB EJ Manuel, K Sebastian Janikowski, ILB Navorro Bowman, TE Lee Smith, FS Reggie Nelson, OLB Aldon Smith, CB Travis Carrie, DT Justin Ellis, K Giorgio Tavecchio (ERFA), OLB Shilique Calhoun (ERFA).

42 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: NFC East Joe Dolan published on February 08, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. nd Dallas Cowboys (9-7; 2 in NFC East) QUARTERBACKS Dak Prescott After a solid start in the Grst half of the 2017 NFL season, in which he looked at least similar to his highly elcient 2016 rookie campaign, things went south for Prescott, coinciding with the domestic violence suspension of Ezekiel Elliott and injuries to his offensive line, most notably LT Tyron Smith. In 16 games, Prescott went 308/490 for 3324 yards (62.9%, 6.8 YPA) with 22 TD and 13 INT. He added 57/357/6 as a runner (6.3 YPC) to Gnish 14 th among QBs with FPG. Things were mostly going swimmingly for Prescott this year, at least through the Grst half of the season Elliott was appealing his suspension, and through his Grst eight games, Prescott ranked 4 th among QBs with 24.8 FPG, having Gnished as a top-12 weekly fantasy QB in seven of those eight games. But when Elliott dropped his appeal prior to Week 10, it was all downhill for Dak. From Week 10 on (even including two games after Elliott s return), Prescott ranked 31 st among QBs with FPG, and Gnished as a top-16 QB just once. His lone 300-yard game of the season came in Week 14 without Elliott, a QB4 Gnish buoyed by extensive YAC. But also keep in mind that a lot of that time without Elliott was spent without his prized LT Smith, or with Smith hobbled (Prescott was pressured on 37% of his dropbacks this year, 9th-worst in the NFL). If it weren t for Prescott s value as perhaps the best zone-read QB in the NFL, he would have been even worse for fantasy. The true value for Prescott likely falls somewhere in between his squeaky clean rookie year and his horrigc end to the 2017 campaign (remember, he managed to lead Dallas to only 6 points against the Eagles backups in Week 17). It s also worth noting that his top WR, Dez Bryant, struggled both to create separation, and dropped a bunch of balls when he did. And outside of Dez, Dallas lacks a whole lot of talent on the perimeter. But to us, Prescott is an orchestrator who likely isn t going to carry a team, but can be a very elcient and productive one with the right team around him. That was not the case in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Prescott rebound from his terrible end to the 2017 season with a healthier, and perhaps better equipped, team around him? RUNNING BACKS Ezekiel Elliott Elliott played in 10 games in 2017, missing six with a domestic violence suspension after he opted to drop his appeal and subsequent court cases. In those 10 games, Zeke posted 242/983/7 rushing (4.06 YPC) with 26/269/2 receiving on 38 targets (68.4%, YPR). He averaged FPG, which ranked him 3 rd among RBs. Zeke s 98.3 rush YPG led the NFL, and he very nearly topped 1000 yards rushing despite missing six games. And his importance to the offense was obvious, given how badly Dak Prescott s play slipped without him in the lineup. When active, Zeke played about 85% of Dallas snaps, and was involved on a whopping 42.9% of their offensive plays, tops among all RBs. In his 10 games, Zeke ranked as a top-12 RB in six of them, and ranked outside the top-17 just once (RB43, Week 2). You can make all the arguments you want that Dallas made the wrong pick with him in 2016 over CB Jalen Ramsey, and Suspension aside, Elliott's FPG ranked 3rd among RBs and saw 20 carries in all but one game, so as long as he can stay out of trouble, he'll continue to be a stud. they re probably true, but for fantasy purposes, Elliott is a stud when he s out there. He carried the ball over 20 times in all but one game, and had at least 3 receptions in six of his 10 games. The biggest question, of course, is if Elliott can stay out of trouble. Another incident involving women could result in a lifetime ban based on the NFL s domestic violence policy. Elliott has every reason to have learned from this past incident, but has he? If so, the Cowboys will run him into the ground, as they have the last two years. Alfred Morris The Cowboys primary Gll-in for Ezekiel Elliott, Morris played in 14 games in 2017, carrying 115 times for 547 yards and a TD. He added 7/45/0 receiving on 9 targets to Gnish with 5.16 FPG, ranking him 82 nd among RBs. But over the six games Elliott missed with a domestic violence suspension, Morris averaged 9.77 FPG, 39 th among RBs, and gained 430 of his 547 rushing yards on the year (78.6%). Morris was mostly a FLEX play without Elliott, ranking between RB10 and RB48 in those six games, with three

43 instances coming in the top-36. The lack of production in the passing game really hurt Morris, as it has for much of his NFL career, so even though he averaged 4.76 YPC, 0.70 YPC more than Elliott on the year, he wasn t nearly as productive. He also shared snaps in the backgeld with Rod Smith given his degciencies in the passing game, and that s one of the reasons he wasn t great for fantasy. Morris is a free agent, and it feels like he might want to go somewhere with a better chance to play. Rod Smith A combo RB/FB out of Ohio State, Smith played in 15 games in 2017, his third season in the NFL. He posted 55/232/4 rushing (4.22 YPC) and added 19/202/1 receiving on 23 targets (82.6%, YPR) to Gnish with 6.16 FPG, 70 th among RBs. Mostly, Smith s role was restricted to the third-down back when Ezekiel Elliott was suspended, and he got role as a goal-line back in that regard as well. All of Smith s 5 TDs came when Elliott was suspended between Weeks 10 and 15, including his RB2 overall game against the Giants in Week 14 when he turned a short Dak Prescott pass into a long TD. Smith is still under contract for 2018, and there s really no reason for the Cowboys to let a useful player like him walk away. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Elliott stay out of trouble? If the Cowboys don t re-sign Morris, who will be Zeke s primary backup? WIDE RECEIVERS Dez Bryant 2017 was not a good year for Dez. Though he stayed healthy enough to play all 16 games, he was not terribly productive. Dez posted 69/838/6 receiving on 132 targets (52.3%, YPR) to average FPG. Dez was actually OK through Week 7 though he had two games outside the top-50 at WR, he ranked four times as a top-24 receiver in those six games, including twice as a top-12 receiver. But those would end up being Dez s only two top-12 WR weeks of the season, kind of blowing up the notion that he s a #1 WR. Dez Gnished as a top-24 WR eight times, so he didn t really kill your fantasy team, but he was outside the top 36 at WR in every other game, including Gnishing outside the top 50 in Gve of 16 games. There were multiple problems. First of all, he doesn t run all that well anymore, and speed was never the biggest aspect of his game. He has always been a strong contested catch guy, and QB Dak Prescott is more of a clean-window thrower. Second of all, even when Dez had that clean window, he often dropped passes in 2017, and on others, Prescott was horrigcally inaccurate, especially in the second half of the season, when Prescott started to see ghosts with the additional pressure he was getting. Mostly, it s completely fair to question Dez s health and general skill level at this point, because he now has averaged 12.6 FPG in his career with Dak, after 16.7 FPG with Tony Romo at QB. The Cowboys have a major dilemma on their hands because Dez has a massive contract, and it s highly unlikely any team would take on his salary, unless that team is giving up basically nothing in return. The Cowboys are likely to ask Dez to renegotiate his deal, but will he bite? If not, they could cut him as a post- June 1 designation, saving them around $8.5 million, but they also have basically no receivers. Terrance Williams Williams has been inconsistent at best and downright bad at worst in his NFL career thus far, so it was a bizarre extension to us when the Cowboys gave him a four-year, $17-million contract last off-season. Williams rewarded them with surprise! an inconsistent and generally ineffective season. In 16 games, he posted 53/568/0 receiving on 78 targets (67.9%, YPR). He ranked 73 rd among WRs with 6.79 FPG. In 16 games, Williams ranked twice as a top-36 WR, and outside the top 50 in 10 of those 16 games. He was, quite literally, useless for fantasy, and barely even usable for those who drafted him late in best-ball leagues. The Cowboys need to keep Williams on their roster because of his contract, but that doesn t mean they shouldn t try to upgrade on him this off-season. Cole Beasley The entire Cowboy WR corps was a disappointment this year, and Beasley was a monster one Playing in 15 games (missing Week 17 with an illness), Beasley posted 36/314/4 receiving on 63 targets (57.1%, 8.72 YPR). He averaged 6.09 FPG to rank 84 th among WRs. The fact that Beasley averaged just 8.72 YPR and caught just 57.1% of his targets shows just how inelcient on a pertarget basis he was one of the least elcient WRs in all of football. He scored 4 TDs, but had 2 in two separate games, the only two times he was relevant for fantasy all year (Weeks 5 and 9). In all, he Gnished as WR49 or worse in 13 of his 15 games. He was productive in 2016, but reportedly dealt with hamstring problems from Week 10 on, and perhaps those issues continued into Whatever the case, he was terrible in 2017, he would save $2.5 million against the cap if the Cowboys cut him, and the Cowboys have a readymade replacement in 2017 rookie Ryan Switzer. Ryan Switzer A rookie fourth-round pick out of North Carolina, Switzer played in 16 games, serving as the Cowboys primary return man, garnering 856 total return yards, including an 83-yard punt-return TD. He caught just 6 passes for 41 yards on 7 targets, however, mostly because he was working behind Cole Beasley as the Cowboys primary slot receiver. But Beasley was horrigcally ineffective, and the Cowboys could save some good money by cutting him, so Switzer could take over that role in It s something to watch this offseason? Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Is Dez irreparably on the downside of his career? Will the Cowboys cut Dez or Beasley? Will Dallas re-sign qash player Brice Butler? Will they promote Switzer to the slot job? Will the Cowboys signigcantly upgrade what was a terrible receiving corps? TIGHT ENDS

44 Jason Witten Witten hasn t been able to run for like three years, and he won t do anything after the catch, but at least he can still get open against a zone defense. In ways, he was the only Cowboy receiver this year who actually did what was expected of him. In 16 games (Witten still hasn t missed a game since his 2003 rookie year), Witten posted 63/560/5 receiving on 87 targets (72.4%, 8.89 YPR). At 9.31 FPG, he ranked 10 th among TEs. Witten turned in just Gve games as a top-12 TE however, though he had six more as a top-24 TE, so he was an OK fantasy option on a weekly basis. The issue is that he really needs a TD to come through, since the big-play potential with him is basically nonexistent. Witten s 8.89 YPR in 2017 was a new career-low, and his third consecutive year below 10.0 YPR (and fourth of last six). His 63 catches and 560 yards were also his worst since 2003, so while he s still a good safety valve for Dak Prescott, it s obvious his body just can t move the way it used to. Witten is turning 36 in May, and while he still plans to play, the Cowboys desperately need to make him a part-time player (he played 98.4% of the Cowboys snaps in 2017). Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Cowboys Gnally get a TE talented enough to make Witten a part-time player? Key Free Agents: DE Demarcus Lawrence, WR Brice Butler, G Jonathan Cooper, RB Alfred Morris, T Byron Bell, DL Stephen Paea, LB Kyle Wilber, LS LP Ladouceur, C Joe Looney, CB Bene Benwikere, LB Anthony Hitchens. New York Giants (3-13; 4 in NFC East) th QUARTERBACKS Eli Manning Is Eli s time with the Giants over? It s very possible. But given how much he has contributed to this franchise in his career, it s almost 100% clear that he should have been treated better by erstwhile HC Ben McAdoo. In 15 games, Eli went 352/571 for 3468 yards (61.6%, 6.1 YPA). He threw 19 TD and 13 TD to Gnish at FPG, 28 th among QBs. Eli Gnished as a top-12 QB four times (twice against the Eagles), but was outside the top-24 four times as well. He dealt with a terrible offensive line and a ton of injuries to his receiving corps, none more impactful than the loss of WR Odell Beckham. Over the last two years, Eli s QB rating with OBJ in there is 87.1, while it s 75.9 without him. With Beckham, his YPA is 6.8, while without him, his YPA is 5.7 (dead last in football). There s no doubt that Eli s level of play is mediocre at best, but it was still bizarre that McAdoo chose to bench him in Week 13, ending a streak of 210 consecutive starts at the QB position, second all-time to only Brett Favre (a near unbreakable 297). And McAdoo didn t bench Eli for rookie Davis Webb he benched him for Geno Smith. McAdoo was Gred after that game, and it makes us wonder why Giants ownership allowed McAdoo to make the decision to bench a franchise legend if they were that close to Gring him in the Grst place. New Giant coach Pat Shurmur has been very diplomatic in his approach to the Eli situation this off-season, and while there s still a chance the Giants can move on depending on how the rest of the QB off-season shakes out, there s obviously a far better chance Eli is back in a Giant uniform in 2018 than there was before Shurmur s hiring. But the Giants have the #2 overall pick in April s draft, and it s a deep QB draft with multiple kinds of prospects. Firing McAdoo allowed Eli to regain some dignity, but this thing isn t likely to have a storybook ending. As for fantasy, unless Eli lands somewhere with a great receiving corps, we likely won t be targeting him next season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Who will be the Giants starting QB in 2018? Will they draft a QB at #2 overall? If the Giants move on from Eli, where will he go? RUNNING BACKS Orleans Darkwa A downhill grinder, Darkwa was by far the most effective runner the Giants had in their below-mediocre backgeld this year. In 15 games, Darkwa posted 171/751/5 rushing (4.39 YPC) and 19/116/0 receiving on 28 targets (67.6%, 6.11 YPR). He averaged 9.05 FPG to rank 41 st among RBs. It took the Giants too long to actually give Darkwa a real chance this year, given how atrocious Paul Perkins was as the starter early in the year. And though Darkwa Gnished just twice as a top-12 RB (Week 11 and the meaningless Week 17), he had eight Gnishes as a top-36 RB, so at the very least he was worth having around as a qex option in a pinch. He ran for over 100 yards twice, and had 10 or more touches in 10 games, though overall he played just over 30% of the Giants snaps when active. Darkwa may not be a dynamic back, but he goes forward when given the football, is effective near the goal line, and teams should have interest in him as a potential #2/rotational back when he hits the open market this off-season. The Giants may not be interested in bringing him back given the presence of Wayne Gallman, but Darkwa is a solid player who gave the Giants a sustaining element to their run game they have lacked for a long time. Wayne Gallman When Gallman came out of Clemson last year, we commented that we liked scouting him because what he did well was evident from the get-go. He s a downhill, competitive runner with solid hands as a receiver, and he s a willing blocker as well. For some reason, the Giants didn t really give him a shot at a full-time job despite their run game sucking for much of the year, but he did

45 The team didn't give Gallman much of a chance for the full-time job, but we think new HC Pat Shurmur can maximize his elciency. showcase some of his abilities that may earn him a rotational role in In 13 games (Gallman was a healthy scratch early in the season), Gallman posted 111/476/0 rushing (4.29 YPC), with 34/193/1 receiving on 48 targets (70.8%, 5.68 YPR). He averaged 8.22 FPG to rank 51 st among RBs. Once active, Gallman played about 35% of the Giants offensive snaps, which is pretty much what we anticipated from him. He Gnished six times as a top-24 RB in 13 games, which isn t bad for a rotational back who scored just a single TD on the year. Again, Gallman did exactly what we anticipated of him, and with lead back Orleans Darkwa plus Shane Vereen hitting the open market as free agents, Gallman is in the driver s seat for at least a rotational role with the Giants in He s the type of player a coach like Pat Shurmur will love, as he can do many of the things a Latavius Murray did in Minnesota, though he s a bit smaller. Shane Vereen If you forgot Vereen played this year, we don t blame you, because he didn t make much of an impact. He actually played in 16 games (injuries have really been his problem throughout his career), but posted just 45/164/0 rushing (3.64 YPC) and 44/273/0 receiving (83.0%, 5.75 YPR). He averaged 5.36 FPG to rank 79 th among RBs. He played 29.6% of the Giants offensive snaps. Vereen Gnished just once as a top-24 RB, and it came in Week 1 against Dallas. He had three top-36 RB Gnishes, but all of them were done by Week 5. Vereen caught 3 or more passes in nine of his 16 games, but that was pretty much all he was able to do. He s hitting free agency, and there doesn t appear to be a good reason the Giants should bring him back. Paul Perkins You can make the argument Perkins has been the worst RB in the NFL the last two years. The Giants de-facto starter at the beginning of the year, Perkins lost his job with horrendous play. He posted 41/90 rushing (2.2 YPC) and 8/46 receiving on 10 targets. Perkins still has no TDs in his two-year NFL career, and he s likely in danger of being cut. He lost his job to a former UDFA and a fourthround pick, and it d be a shock if he s back in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will any Giant RB outside of Gallman be back in 2018? Will the Giants let Gallman compete for the starting job, or will they add someone to be the #1 through free agency or the draft? WIDE RECEIVERS Odell Beckham It was a lost year for OBJ, and as a result, a lost year for the Giants. Things got off on the wrong side when OBJ suffered a high ankle sprain in the preseason, which ended up costing him the Grst regular season game. Then, OBJ broke his ankle in Week 5, ending his season when surgery was required. In four games, OBJ posted 25/302/3 receiving on 41 targets (61.0%, YPR). He averaged FPG to rank third among WRs, if his season were extrapolated out for a full year. In his four games, OBJ ranked three times as a top-17 WR, including twice as a top-6 WR. He ranked once outside the top 50 at the position. The Giant offense, already struggling with Beckham, pretty much collapsed without him. The good news is Beckham will be about 10 months recovered from surgery by the time training camp comes around, and he should be 100% for his new coach, Pat Shurmur, who has already indicated he s willing to let some of OBJ s behavior issues from the past be bygones. Beckham will have a ton of motivation in 2018, as he s entering the Gnal year of his rookie contract, and if the Giants choose to select a QB at #2 overall, he could be a critical piece for the future. The good news for Beckham is that the old guard, perhaps starting to get fed up with his antics, is all gone, with Shurmur and GM Dave Gettleman in place. Whether Eli Manning is back or the Giants go with a rookie at #2, Beckham will be their top receiver barring something shocking. Brandon Marshall The Giants brought in Marshall in the off-season to give them one of the perceived top WR trios in the NFL with Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Marshall. Unfortunately, that plan was destroyed as Beckham and Marshall played only nine games combined, with both going down with season-ending ankle injuries in Week 5 against the Chargers. Marshall wasn t particularly good anyway, posting just 18/154/0 receiving on 33 targets (54.5%, 8.56 YPR) in Gve games, to average 6.68 FPG, 75 th among WRs. Marshall Gnished no higher than WR31 in those Gve games, and Gnished outside the top 50 at the position in three of them. He struggled with separation and drops. Marshall had season-ending ankle surgery in October, and he now turns 34 in March, though he has told reporters he has no plans at all to retire. He s under contract for 2018, but the Giants could save over $4 million if they let him go. His market may be slow in the event that happens. Sterling Shepard Like Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall, Shepard injured his ankle in Week 5 s bodybag game for the Giant WRs against the Chargers. Unlike Beckham and Marshall, Shepard was able to play after a few weeks off, and he became the Giants de facto #1 WR down the stretch. New York s primary slot receiver played in 11 games (missing time with ankle and neck injuries, plus an illness) and posted 59/731/2 receiving on 84 targets (70.2%, YPR). He ranked 21 st among WRs with FPG. Shepard had 2 TDs on the year, both against an excellent Philly defense that struggled with the Giants quick passing game, for whatever reason. But he had three

46 games of 100 yards or more (two against Philly), and caught at least 5 passes in seven of his 11 games, catching 7 or more passes in four of those seven. He averaged 7.6 targets per game in his 11 games, putting him above the pace that guys like Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, and Stefon Diggs saw. And after OBJ and Marshall went down, Shepard s targets rose to 9.2 per game, which puts him in elite company. Shepard is an explosive, smart slot receiver, and the Giants would do well to keep him there under Pat Shurmur that s good news for Shepard too, since Shurmur has gotten huge years out of both Diggs and Adam Thielen in the slot the last couple years in Minnesota. Whether it s Eli Manning or a rookie playing QB for the Giants, Shepard should have a massive role going forward. Roger Lewis Lewis isn t particularly big and he isn t particularly fast, but when he s gotten an opportunity, he s been a pretty solid player in the NFL, at least one who can carve out a role as a #3/#4 type of WR in the league. Playing in 15 games, his second with the Giants, he posted 36/416/2 receiving on 72 targets (50%, YPR). He averaged 5.97 FPG to rank 86 th among WRs, though 61 of his 72 targets came in the 10 games after the demise of Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall, over which he ranked as the WR79 (so not much improvement). Lewis wasn t useful for fantasy in 2017, posting just three games as WR36 or higher, but he s someone to watch in the event the Giants move on from Marshall. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will there be any complications for Beckham under the new Giant regime? Will Marshall be back? Will the Giants bring anyone else in? TIGHT ENDS Evan Engram Engram can t block, but we re guessing the Giants don t really care, given he just turned in one of the greatest rookie years in the history of the tight end position. The Giants 2017 Grst-round pick was excellent as a receiver, posting 64/722/6 receiving on 115 targets (55.7%, YPR) in 15 games, missing one with a rib injury (suffered in Week 16, costing him Week 17). He ranked 4th among TEs with FPG. In terms of rookie TEs, Engram is 6 th all-time in receiving yards and 3 rd in receptions. In fact, the only rookie TE with more in both categories this century is Jeremy Shockey also a Giant (2002). For fantasy, Engram was overall excellent, turning in eight games as a top-12 TE, and three more as a top-14 TE. In all, he was a guy you could safely start every week with little risk. A dynamic playmaker both in line and separated from the formation, Engram has the new school TE mismatch dynamic of being too strong for corners and too fast for safeties. Linebackers can t even dream of covering the guy. He had a late-season swoon with some drops and penalties, but he rebounded before the season ended and overall turned in a phenomenal rookie season. He now gets to work with Pat Shurmur, who has coordinated some excellent offenses based around TEs in recent years (Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph). We ll have to see who the Giants QB is in 2018, but Engram is primed to be drafted early, and he deserves to be. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How high can Engram soar as a fantasy option? Key Free Agents: RB Orleans Darkwa, RB Shane Vereen, G Justin Pugh, C Weston Richburg, G DJ Fluker, LB Keenan Robinson, WR Tavarres King, QB Geno Smith, DE Kerry Wynn, LB Jonathan Casillas, CB Ross Cockrell, G John Greco, LB Mark Herzlich, LB Kelvin Sheppard, LB Akeem Ayers, CB Darryl Morris, S Nat Berhe, LB Devon Kennard. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3; 1 in NFC East) QUARTERBACKS Carson Wentz It was a magical season for Wentz, who clearly has elite physical skills and strong leadership qualities, though the ending of the year had to be bittersweet for him, as he watched his backup Nick Foles hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Nonetheless, Wentz was turning in an MVP campaign before tearing his ACL in Los Angeles against the Rams. In 13 games, Wentz posted 265/440 passing for 3296 yards (60.2%, 7.5 YPA), with 33 TD and 7 INT. He added 64/299/0 as a runner to average FPG, ranking him 3 rd among all QBs. Wentz was stellar all season, helped along by a muchimproved supporting cast and perhaps the game s best-designed offense. But he executed that offense with aplomb, and you could argue that he didn t play a poor game all season. Wentz Gnished as a top-12 QB in 10 of his 13 starts, including as a top-5 QB in eight of those 10. He threw for over 300 yards in four games, threw for multiple TDs in 10 games, and never once went without throwing a single TD. Had Wentz played the whole year, there was a good chance st

47 he would have beaten out Tom Brady for the NFL MVP award. But of course, a December ACL tear (along with LCL damage), Wentz will have a shortened off-season, with potential rust to recover from. Most timelines are optimistic about Wentz s availability, but it makes the Eagles off-season plans with Foles all the more intriguing. Of the few negatives for Wentz to improve upon, he still has some accuracy issues, and he absolutely needs to learn how to protect himself better (he was injured when diving head Grst into the end zone then threw a TD pass on a torn ACL the next play). But he s one of the NFL s most aggressive throwers, one of the NFL s most athletic QBs, and one of the NFL s best improvisers. Despite Foles run to the Super Bowl MVP, Wentz is still the Eagles franchise QB, and will likely be drafted highly in August presuming his recovery is going well, as is expected. Nick Foles Foles run to glory, culminating in Philly s Grst ever Lombardi Trophy and a Super Bowl MVP to go with it, is why people still tune in to watch the NFL. And if Foles wants a starting job, it s practically a guarantee someone is going to give him one if Philly wants to trade him. Taking over for Carson Wentz in Philly s Gnal three regular-season games after Wentz got hurt, Foles mostly struggled. He posted a 4-TD game in his Grst start against the Giants, but then went 19/38 for 163 yards with 1 TD and a pick against the Raiders in Week 16, and 4/11 for 39 yards and a pick against Dallas in Week 17. His struggles even had some Eagles fans calling for Nate Sudfeld to Carson Wentz's MVP campaign was derailed by a torn ACL, but not before a breathtaking 13 games, including eight top-5 QB games for fantasy. start in the playoffs. So of course Foles had a Joe Flacco like run to the Super Bowl MVP, outdueling Tom Brady on the biggest stage. In three playoff games, Foles went 77/106 for 971 yards (72.64%, a ridiculous 9.16 YPA), with 6 TD and only 1 INT (which was a quky play in the Super Bowl, you may remember). And then there was that TD reception, of course. Foles had extreme control over the Eagles offense, which Doug Pederson brilliantly altered to include more of the run/pass option plays that Foles made with so much success in his big 2013 season under Chip Kelly. Foles also demonstrated excellent leadership during the run, which any interested parties will have a lot of respect for. The questions for Foles are multiple now. Number one, will the Eagles even want to move him, given the potential Wentz isn t ready for the season or is rusty? Number two, does Foles want to move on from this situation? Number three, will any teams interested in acquiring Foles be scared away from his mediocre 2014, and then disastrous run with the Rams? Nonetheless, you can win a Super Bowl with Foles and the proper coaching. He just proved that on the biggest stage, where he went blow-for-blow with Brady and outlasted him. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Wentz be ready for 2018? Will Foles be traded to start elsewhere? If so, who backs up Wentz? RUNNING BACKS Jay Ajayi The Eagles just had a bizarre season, there s no doubt about it, and their Super Bowl championship documentary may need to be double the length of most to get all the information into it. Part of that will be Ajayi s deal to the Eagles from the Dolphins at the trade deadline for a 4th-round pick. The Eagles wanted a little more versatility from their power back, and though Ajayi split work with LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement, he provided that. Overall, Ajayi played in 14 games, posting 208/873/1 rushing (4.2 YPC) and 24/158/1 receiving on 34 targets (70.6%, 6.58 YPR). He Gnished 33 rd with 9.94 FPG, obviously making him a fantasy bust given his lofty draft status, though it was pretty hard to anticipate that Ajayi would be on a new team by midseason. Ajayi played seven games with the Dolphins prior to the deal, managing just 138/465/0 rushing (3.37 YPC) and averaging 9.60 FPG despite playing over 70% of the Dolphins snaps. He played seven with the Eagles after the trade, and though he played under 40% of Philly s snaps, he averaged 5.83 YPC, 9.10 YPR, and averaged FPG. He was just a far more elcient player with the Eagles. Ajayi s only two 100-yard games came with Miami, and he didn t Gnish as a top-12 RB a single time. When he landed in Philly, he turned in Gve top-36 RB weeks in seven games, but he also missed an extra game because of an extra bye, and was rested in Week 17. He came through as a FLEX option for those who adjusted their expectations, but there s no doubt he was a colossal fantasy bust. The question now is what Ajayi will do in 2018, given he will have an entire off-season in Doug Pederson s offense, plus the ability to recover from whatever dings and dents he accumulated throughout the season. We know Ajayi has chronic knee issues, but it was an ankle injury that slowed him during the postseason. On top of that, Blount is a free agent. And does Darren Sproles return for one more year? Ajayi is under contract in 2018, and the guess here is he will be the Eagles primary early-down runner as they look to defend their Super Bowl championship, but what kind of moves do the Eagles make this off-season at the position?

48 LeGarrette Blount The Eagles signed Blount after the NFL Draft in April, after they emerged from it without a traditional power back. It was a one-year value signing that ended up paying huge dividends en route to a Super Bowl championship. Cast aside from the Patriots, who instead chose to sign Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead, Blount arrived in Philly and provided a steady early-down inquence for the club. It just didn t translate to a ton of fantasy success, because Blount didn t score a lot of TDs. In 16 games, Blount posted 173/766/2 rushing (4.43 YPC) and 8/50/1 receiving on 8 targets, Gnishing 64 th among RBs with 6.72 FPG. Blount Gnished six times as a top-36 RB, including four times as a top-24 RB, but none of those games came after the acquisition of Jay Ajayi. So he was essentially useless for fantasy past Week 8, as the Eagles employed a three-man backgeld. But we re guessing Blount doesn t care he scored a rushing TD in each of the Eagles three postseason games, including a great 21-yarder against the Patriots the team that cast him aside in Super Bowl LII, capturing his third ring in four years. As always, Blount is a very good runner when he gets room, but he doesn t contribute much in the passing game and is extremely TD-dependent for fantasy purposes. His 11 postseason TDs are the most among any player not in the Hall of Fame, and that will be Blount s legacy when all is said and done. He s a free agent, and he does have something left in the tank, but things could get crowded in Philly. Corey Clement In April, the Eagles drafted one RB in the fourth round, and signed another as a UDFA. The fourth-rounder, Donnel Pumphrey, never played a down after a terrible preseason, and landed on IR with a hamstring injury. The UDFA from nearby Glassboro, NJ and the University of Wisconsin became a Super Bowl hero. That was Clement, who played in all 16 games for Philly as a rookie. He posted 74/321/4 rushing (4.34 YPC) and 10/123/2 receiving on 15 targets to rank 75 th among RBs with 5.65 FPG. He also contributed on returns and on special teams, and earned the Eagles trust as their best pass-protection back after Darren Sproles went down early in the season. Clement never was a consistent fantasy option, though he did have a week as RB2 overall when he scored 3 TDs against the Broncos. He also Gnished three more times as a top-36 RB, though it s hard to imagine many people had him in their lineups at that time. The question for Clement now is what can he become? After he posted 100 receiving yards and a spectacular TD in the Super Bowl, it s hard to imagine Philly casting him aside. However, Clement s role would kind of intersect with Sproles role, if Sproles comes back. Clement lost weight to add juice at the suggestion of Eagle RB Duce Staley, and it worked. Could he add weight back on to be more of an interior runner? Could he become a feature back down the line? We ve seen weirder things happen with UDFA RBs, for sure. Don t be shocked if Clement has some fantasy value next year. Darren Sproles Prior to the 2017 season, Sproles alluded to it being his Gnal year. But he tore his ACL and broke his wrist on the same play in Week 3, after having posted just 15/61 rushing and 7/73 receiving on 12 targets to that point. Sproles got his Grst Super Bowl ring, but the fact that he watched from the sidelines for so much of the year had to be more bitter than sweet. There appears to be a very good chance Sproles doesn t want that to be the way he goes out, and it ll be interesting to see if the Eagles choose to bring him back he s a free agent, and Corey Clement did a phenomenal job on third downs for them. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Eagles re-sign Sproles or Blount? Will Ajayi have a bigger role in 2018, after having a full off-season with the club? How much better can Clement get after his Super Bowl heroics? WIDE RECEIVERS Alshon Jeffery After watching Carson Wentz as a rookie, it was blatantly obvious he needed more weapons around him if he was going to succeed in So the Eagles went and got them, convincing Jeffery to sign a one-year deal with them in March, as he tried to strengthen his own resume after a 2016 marred by a PED suspension and injuries. It was a great investment for both sides. Jeffery played in all 16 games for Philly in 2017, posting 57/789/9 receiving on 120 targets (47.5%, YPR). He Gnished 27 th among WRs with FPG. Alshon got off to a bit of a slow start with Wentz, as it took them some time to get on the same page, even though Wentz targeted his new WR heavily. Jeffery Gnished outside the top-24 at WR in six of his Grst seven games with the Eagles, posting inelcient catch rate numbers all the while. Over that span, he ranked a miserable 40 th among WRs at FPG. But things really started to heat up for Jeffery after that point. In his next six games, the Gnal six games in which Wentz would start, Jeffery scored 6 TDs and ranked 12 th among WRs at FPG. He ranked as a top-24 weekly WR in Gve of those six games, as a top-12 WR in three of them, and as a top-36 WR in all of them. He turned in a WR25 week with Nick Foles in Week 15, before Foles struggled badly in the Gnal two weeks of the regular season, neither resulting in even a top-50 WR week for Jeffery he caught just 1 pass on 4 targets in those two games. But the Eagles understood the impact Jeffery made outside of the stat sheet, giving him a Gve-year extension late in the season prior to Jeffery having a massive postseason, with 12/219/3 receiving on 18 targets in three more games with Foles. Jeffery is locked in for the future, and there s reason to believe he ll have bigger and more elcient numbers in 2018, at least once Wentz shakes off his inevitable rust. Nelson Agholor You can make the argument that Agholor was the worst WR in the NFL in his Grst two seasons in the NFL, at least certainly as it relates to his Grst-round draft capital. Then, you can make the argument he was the most improved player in the entire league in 2017 and the Eagles best WR even after they signed Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. In 16 games, he posted 62/768/8

49 Agholor will be an interesting mid-round WR in 2018, as he completely turned around his play and Gnished with seven top-24 WR games in receiving on 95 targets (65.3%, YPR). He averaged FPG to rank 30 th among WRs. We re not exaggerating when we suggest that Agholor looked like a completely different player in 2017 than in his Grst two years. A simple coaching and personnel move may have been the spark. Following off-season reports that Agholor looked explosive and congdent in camps, the Eagles made a shocking move by dealing slot master Jordan Matthews to Buffalo, opening the slot role for Agholor. The third-year WR was a natural Gt, using his quickness to get open in ways he never did on the outside. According to ProFootballFocus, 752 of Agholor s 768 receiving yards came out of the slot, third in the NFL behind Larry Fitzgerald and Golden Tate. Quite literally, Agholor went from one of the NFL s worst wide receivers to one of the best slot receivers in the entire league. It was a third-year improvement that resembled that of Davante Adams in Green Bay. Agholor had seven games as a top-24 WR, including three as a top-12 WR. He was a useful WR to have on a bench, knowing you could plug him in against a team with a poor slot defender. Agholor was also great in the Super Bowl, taking advantage of the Patriots bizarre benching of Malcolm Butler to post 9/84 receiving on 11 targets. Last off-season, the question from Eagle fans was how quickly can we get rid of this guy? Soon, it s likely to be when are we extending him? Agholor will be a very interesting mid-round WR in Torrey Smith The Eagles signed Smith as part of a total revamping of their receiving corps, and while he didn t produce for fantasy, his ability to stretch the Geld helped open things up for their offense. In 16 games, Smith posted 36/430/2 receiving on 68 targets (52.9%, YPR). He ranked 91 st among WRs with 5.67 FPG. The Eagles struggled to get Smith to actually connect on a lot of the deep balls he s become famous for, whether because of inaccurate throws by Carson Wentz, or outright drops from Smith (he was the only Eagle WR who really struggled with drops in 2017). While he never produced consistently enough to be worth consideration for fantasy, he actually had a 100-yard game during the regular season (Alshon Jeffery didn t), and he had a big moment in the playoffs when he was on the receiving end of a qea qicker for a long TD in the NFC Championship Game. But while Smith provided ample leadership and a can-opening ability, the Eagles had multiple games late in the season where they started giving a portion of his snaps to rookie Mack Hollins. The Eagles would save $5 million against the cap if they cut Smith, and given how cap-strapped they are, it appears unlikely Torrey will be back unless he completely restructures his deal. Mack Hollins The Eagles got a very intriguing player in Hollins in the fourth round in April s NFL Draft. At North Carolina, Hollins was regarded as one of the best special-teams players in the country, but also as a dangerous deep threat. The Grst was very important in his Grst season as an Eagle, while he qashed the ability to do the latter. In 16 games, he posted 16/226/1 receiving on 22 targets (72.7%, YPR). He was restricted to about 25% of the Eagles snaps on offense, but was getting mixed in more and more for Torrey Smith late in the season. With Smith unlikely to be back unless he takes a massive paycut, Hollins could be in line for a big-time role increase in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Jeffery parlay his second-half success into a massive 2018? Will Agholor continue to be one of the NFL s premier slot receivers? Will Smith be back, and if not, will Hollins be given the opportunity to step up? TIGHT ENDS Zach Ertz For the second consecutive season in 2017, Ertz led the Eagles in receiving, and turned in an absolutely stellar fantasy campaign in the process. Missing two games one each with a hamstring injury and a concussion Ertz posted 74/824/8 receiving on 110 targets (67.3%, YPR). At FPG, he ranked 3 rd among TEs, behind just Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce (who were the consensus Grst two TEs off the board in fantasy drafts in August). Ertz Gnished as a top-12 TE in 11 of the 14 games he played in, and keep in mind that he barely played in a meaningless Week 17 game. While he was the overall TE1 just once (Week 12), he was in the top- 5 seven times. Overall, he was one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy football, and served as the go-to guy for both Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. Ertz capped off his excellent 2017 season with a monster playoff run, capping off his dream year with the gamewinning TD in Super Bowl II. While Ertz has always been productive, he s never been this consistent, and in 2017 he most notably became a much tougher guy to tackle once he had the ball in his hands. It turned him from a good TE into a great one, and he should continue to be an excellent fantasy option. Trey Burton It s ironic that in a year the Eagles produced both a burgeoning NFL MVP (Carson Wentz) and one of the most improbable Super Bowl MVPs ever (Nick Foles) at the QB position, Burton enters free agency having been the trigger man on what is bound to be the most famous TD pass in Eagles franchise history. A former college QB, Burton threw a TD to Foles in Super Bowl LII on the Philly Special play, and it s an example of the versatility he brings to the table that could earn him a good bit of money this off-season. Overall in 2017, Burton had 23/248/5 receiving on 31 targets (74.2%, YPR). But in the two games Zach Ertz missed, he Gnished as the

50 TE7 (Week 9) and TE1 (Week 14), when his snaps went way up. Burton is an electric athlete who played QB in college at Florida, before converting to TE, and he s a better receiver at the position than a lot of teams have in their #1 TE. The Eagles are cap-strapped this offseason, so while the team would almost certainly like to bring back their unlikely franchise hero, his tantalizing athletic ability could earn him a big deal from someone else. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Ertz ascend to being the #1 TE in fantasy? Will the Eagles re-sign Burton, or will he unlock his fantasy potential elsewhere? Key Free Agents: RB LeGarrette Blount, RB Darren Sproles, TE Trey Burton, LB Nigel Bradham, CB Patrick Robinson, S Corey Graham, DT Beau Allen, LB Najee Goode, K Caleb Sturgis, RB/KR Kenjon Barner, LB Dannell Ellerbe, LT Will Beatty, S Jaylen Watkins (RFA). Washington Redskins (7-9; 3 in NFC East) rd QUARTERBACKS Kirk Cousins This is a new one we ve been doing these divisional reviews for years, and never have we been able to say that the guy we re reviewing as a team s borderline star QB will degnitely not be back. That s because the Redskins have swung a widely reported deal for Alex Smith, and though it can t become olcial until the new league year starts on March 14, it means Cousins will be hitting the free agent market. With his level of production and the fact that he is smack-dab in his prime, Cousins may well become the highest paid player in the history of the NFL. In 16 games, Cousins went 347/540 for 4093 yards (64.3%, 7.6 YPA). He added 27 TD and 13 INT, plus 49/179/4 rushing, to Gnish with FPG, 8 th among QBs. If you limit it to QBs who played 10 or more games, Cousins was 6th among QBs. Cousins posted seven games as a top-12 QB, though it s worth noting that six of those seven came prior to Week 11, when star passing-game RB Chris Thompson got hurt. Up until Thompson s injury which also coincided with Cousins line and the rest of his receiving corps collapsing Cousins averaged FPG and ranked 5 th among QBs. After that point, Cousins fell to 15 th, with FPG. The simple explanation is that Cousins couldn t do it all on his own. But it s still impressive that Cousins managed to put up big numbers despite the Redskins brass getting rid of both of his top WRs, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, from TE Jordan Reed got hurt again. FA WR Terrelle Pryor was a bust. And the offensive line, most notably LT Trent Williams, was in shambles because of injury. For some, this may indicate why Cousins isn t a star QB and why Washington is right to let him walk. To others, it s a sign of Cousins ability and resiliency. Since taking over as Washington s full-time starting QB in 2015, Cousins 7.8 YPA is behind only Matt Ryan (8.13) and Tom Brady (7.88). Criticize him if you will, but this guy is about to get paid. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Where is Cousins going and how will he translate for fantasy to a new offense? How will the Washington offense look with Alex Smith running it? RUNNING BACKS Chris Thompson One of the breakout fantasy stars of 2017, Thompson s season was cut short by a broken Gbula, which required surgery, in Week 11. But that doesn t dampen what he accomplished in 10 games, Thompson posted 64/294/2 rushing (4.59 YPC) and 39/510/4 receiving on 54 targets (72.2%, YPR). He averaged FPG to rank 11 th among RBs, and 10 th among RBs with Gve or more appearances. What s more, his 19.2% involvement (basically, the percentage of an offense s plays on which Thompson saw a carry or target) was the lowest among any RB in the top 15 in PPR FPG. He was elcient and explosive, and you could argue was the key cog that made the Redskin offense go. After he went down in Week 11, Kirk Cousins numbers plummeted, though Thompson s injury also coincided with critical injuries along Washington s offensive line. Nonetheless, Thompson Gnished as a top-12 RB in four of his 10 games, as a top-24 RB in two more, and as a top-36 RB in three more. Thompson had a breakout 2017 cut short by a broken Gbula, but could be a favorite target of new QB Alex Smith in He was, at the minimum, a useful qex in 90% of his action, and at best a week-winning type of asset (he Gnished as the RB3 in Week 3, his best Gnish of the year). Thompson caught at least 3 passes in eight of his 10 games, and in one of the two in which he didn t, he scored a receiving TD on his only reception (against the Saints in Week 11, the game in which he got injured). Thompson is certain to be a big part of the Washington offense going forward, especially with Alex Smith at QB. There s no doubt Smith will love Thompson.

51 Samaje Perine A rookie fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma, Perine had a tough time getting on the Geld early because of fumbles and pass-protection issues during the preseason and early regular season. As a result, Perine didn t top 50% of the Redskins offensive snaps until Week 10. But after that point, he had some pretty good games. In 16 games, Perine posted 175/603/1 rushing (3.45 YPC) and 22/182/1 receiving on 24 targets (91.7%, 8.27 YPR). He ranked 59 th among RBs with 6.03 FPG. However, if we narrow the focus to Weeks 10-16, his longest run of relevance (he left Week 17 early with an ankle injury), he ranked 31 st at FPG and played around 57% of Washington s offensive snaps. Perine had two games Weeks 11 and 12 as a top-12 RB, but only had one more (Week 6) as a top-24 RB. But from Week 10 through Week 16, he ranked six times as a top-36 RB, so he was worth Gring up as a qex option. Keep in mind that his rise in snaps coincided with some injuries along Washington s offensive line, which may have made real estate harder to Gnd for him. Perine had two 100-yard games on the ground, but only once did he have a TD in a game in which he didn t run for 100 yards, so he had a relatively low ceiling. A classic grinder, Perine is a little more agile than you might think, but nothing he did as a rookie would make you feel like he s destined to be special. With Alex Smith now at QB for Washington, a functional run game is imperative, but did Perine do enough that the club won t try to replace him? Rob Kelley Kelley opened the year as Washington s starting RB because of his blocking and ball security, which were signigcantly better than rookie Samaje Perine s. But Kelley is also an unathletic grinder type of runner, far less athletic than even Perine, and it really shows up the more Fat Rob plays. Playing in seven games, missing more than half of the year with knee and ankle problems that landed him on IR in Week 11 (plus missing one game early with a rib injury), Kelley posted 62/194/3 rushing (3.14 YPC) and 4/18/0 receiving on 7 targets. His 6.17 FPG ranked him 69 th at the RB position. Kelley had only one game all year with more than 30 yards rushing, carrying 12 times for 78 yards in Week 2 against the Rams. He failed to top 3.3 YPC in six of his seven games, and failed to top 2.5 YPC in four of seven (his last four games of the year). Kelley s only Gnish as a top-24 fantasy RB came in Week 9, when he scored 2 TD despite gaining just 18 yards on 14 carries. Kelley is a Gne short-yardage back because of what he does well, but ultimately he s the type of guy you can Gnd just about anywhere. He could stick around as a #3 RB, or could be a cut candidate come summer. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Perine be given the chance to be Washington s primary early-down back? Does Thompson have as much PPR juice with Alex Smith as he had with Kirk Cousins? WIDE RECEIVERS Jamison Crowder While it was another productive year for Kirk Cousins in 2017, it wasn t a particularly good one for fantasy for Cousins receivers. The best of the group was Crowder, who played in 15 games, missing one game with a hamstring injury that bothered him for much of the season. Crowder posted 66/789/3 receiving on 103 targets (64.1%, YPR). He averaged FPG to rank 38 th among WRs. But after a very strong, consistent 2016 season, Crowder got off to an impossibly slow start in He ranked as a top-50 WR just once from Week 1 through Week 7, and that was as the WR47 in Week 2. But from Week 8 on, Crowder was much more in line with the early draft pick he was in August. From that point on, he caught 47 of his 66 passes on the year, and ranked as the WR16 overall with FPG. In those nine games, he ranked six times as a top-36 WR, including Gve times as a top-24 WR. He caught 4 or more passes in seven of those nine games, after reaching that mark just twice prior to Week 8. He became the go-to guy in Washington s passing game, once Cousins and coach Jay Gruden realized Jordan Reed wouldn t be healthy, they couldn t count on Terrelle Pryor, and RB Chris Thompson got injured. Now, with Cousins gone and Alex Smith in town, we d anticipate Crowder to be similarly important. He played through injuries, and at least in the second half of the year, played well through those injuries. In the short to intermediate area, Smith should fall in love with Crowder. Josh Doctson We re now two years into Doctson s career, and we re still not entirely sure what he is. But of course, if you wanted to consider Doctson s 2017 season his rookie campaign given he barely played in 2016, that s fair too. Doctson played in 16 games in 2017, posting 35/502/6 on 78 targets (44.9%, YPR). He averaged 7.49 FPG to rank 68 th among WRs. Coming out of TCU, we viewed Doctson as a contested-catch wizard who excelled at making big plays, and at least he showed that talent, albeit inconsistently, in That said, he wasn t particularly effective for fantasy. Doctson didn t have a single top-36 WR Gnish until Week 11, and four total. His best Gnish WR16 came in Week 16, when very few fantasy players had him in lineups. That was his only top-24 WR Gnish on the year, despite Doctson turning 6 of his 35 receptions into TDs. The problem is that none of Doctson s 6 TDs came in a game in which he caught more than 3 passes, and three of the TDs were his only catch of the particular game. Again, there were some positives, and by the end of the year, he was playing well ahead of free-agent bust Terrelle Pryor. It s hard to know exactly what Doctson s role will be with new QB Alex Smith (Smith just had his best year as a deep passer in 2018), but he should be favored to go into the year as one of Washington s top perimeter options. Terrelle Pryor After his breakout 2016 season with the Browns, it was both a surprise to see Cleveland let Pryor walk and a surprise to see him land just a one-year deal on the open market. Well, Pryor s 2017 season may be proof of why both of those things happened. Pryor played in nine games before an ankle injury ended his year, as it required surgery. In those nine games, he posted 20/240/1 receiving on 37 targets (54.1%, YPR). His 5.56 FPG ranked him 93 rd among WRs, making him a titanic bust given he was about a fourth-round fantasy pick in summer drafts. Pryor had only two games as a top-50 WR, Gnishing as WR16 at his peak in Week 4. Pryor

52 topped 40 receiving yards just twice, caught more than 3 passes just once (Week 1), and scored only 1 TD. His one-year deal is up, and there s little reason to believe Washington will bring him back. Another club will likely be willing to see if Pryor can recapture his 2016 magic, but he won t get paid a lot of money to see if he can. Ryan Grant Grant enters free agency in 2018 coming off a relatively productive 2017 season. In 16 games, he posted 45/573/4 receiving on 65 targets (69.2%, YPR). He averaged 7.89 FPG to Gnish 64 th among WRs. Working both outside and in the slot, Grant was helped by the inconsistency of everyone else at the position for Washington, at least until Jamison Crowder got his feet under him in the second half of the season. Still, Grant wasn t a particularly great fantasy option, turning in just four top-36 WR Gnishes, and never in back-to-back games. He caught 3 or more passes in 10 of 16 games, but never topped 5 catches. In other words, he produced like a rock-solid #3 WR. That should get him some interest from a team looking to bolster its depth at the position. He can be a very good slot receiver, but that position is taken in Washington (Crowder). Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: What will Washington s receiving corps look like in 2018, with Pryor and Grant entering free agency? Can Doctson build on his qash plays in 2017 to become a more dynamic threat? Will Alex Smith love Crowder as much as we think he will? TIGHT ENDS Jordan Reed It was another Reed year in We had qashes of dominance, and at least some good production, but he barely played because of injuries. Reed played in only six games, opening camp with a toe injury, then dealing with a chest/shoulder ailment, Gnally landing on IR with a hamstring injury. In the six games he did play, Reed posted 27/211/2 receiving on 35 targets (77.1%, 7.81 YPR). Extrapolated out over the full season, his FPG would rank him 8 th among TEs. But it was obvious even when he was out there that Reed wasn t moving as well as he had in the past (obvious by the tragically low 7.81 YPR). Also keep in mind that Reed s average fantasy production is far greater than his median. He posted huge numbers in garbage time against Philly in Week 7 (8/64/2 on 10 targets) to Gnish as the TE2 for the week, his only top-12 TE Gnish of the year. While it d be nice to say Reed has the same kind of upside with new QB Alex Smith as Travis Kelce did, the fact of the matter is Reed has played just 52 games in his Gve-year career, out of a possible 80. And there is more proof than ever that Reed s body is breaking down, and just not capable of withstanding the rigors of professional football. If he is ridiculously productive in 2018, it will be against all odds. Vernon Davis The sad reality of Washington s TE situation is that Davis, who turned 34 on January 31, is in better physical condition than the oft-injured Jordan Reed. We re not saying that is Reed s fault, but injuries have taken their toll, while Vernon chugs along as a very valuable member of the roster. In 16 games, Vernon posted 43/648/3 receiving on 69 targets (62.3%, YPR). He averaged 7.86 FPG to rank 18 th at the TE position. Vernon had seven top-12 Gnishes at the TE position, which is more games than Reed played total (six). Vernon also topped 50 receiving yards on seven occasions and caught 3 or more balls in six games. However, it s possible his age caught up to him at some point. From Weeks 1 through 11 (10 games), Vernon caught 33 of his 43 passes and ranked 15 th with 9.17 FPG. From Weeks 12 through 17 (six games), Vernon had just 10 catches and ranked 27 th with 5.68 FPG. But it s also likely that the Washington offense at that point was broken by injuries at literally every position except QB. With Alex Smith now in there, we re anticipating Vernon will be very important. Not only does Smith have a fondness for the TE position, but he and Vernon are former teammates in San Francisco, where Davis had the most success of his NFL career. With Reed s body growing more damaged every year, Vernon will be important in 2018, old or not. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Just how broken is Reed? Can Vernon recapture some of the magic he had with Smith in San Francisco? Key Free Agents: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Terrelle Pryor, WR Ryan Grant, K Dustin Hopkins, CB Bashaud Breeland, LG Shawn Lauvao, LB Trent Murphy, LB Zach Brown, LB Junior Galette, TE Niles Paul, LB Will Compton, LB Mason Foster, S DeAngelo Hall, LB Chris Carter, WR Brian Quick, LT Ty Nsekhe, C Spencer Long, S Deshazor Everett (RFA). JOE DOLAN MANAGING EDITOR Joe Dolan is the managing editor of FantasyGuru.com, a role he assumed in He has been with FantasyGuru since In 2015, using FantasyGuru.com's Projections, Joe placed 1st of over 140 fantasy experts in FantasyPros.com s annual Preseason Draft Accuracy rankings, after having Gnished 3rd in Be sure to follow him on Twitter

53 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: NFC South Graham BarGeld published on February 09, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Atlanta Falcons (10-6; 3rd in NFC South) QUARTERBACK Matt Ryan After posting career-year Ggures in 2016 under OC Kyle Shanahan Ryan predictably regressed to the mean in 2017 with Steve Sarkisian calling the shots. In 2016, Ryan set career-best stats in TD Rate (7.1%), YPA (9.3), YPG (309), QB Rating (117), and Fantasy PPG (21.6; QB2). This past year, Ryan s Ggures fell off a cliff: TD Rate (3.8%), YPA (7.7), YPG (256), QB Rating (91), and Fantasy PPG (14.3; QB23). Essentially, Shanahan s departure and the Falcons subsequent regression on offense caused Ryan s TD rate to fall by -3.3%, his YPA fell by -1.6 yards, he averaged -53 fewer YPG, his QB Rating declined by -26 points, and he lost -7.3 fantasy points on a per game basis. Yikes. Still, it s worth noting that Ryan s 2017 QB Rating (91) was dramatically closer to his career average before his historic 2016 season under Kyle Shanahan (90.9). While it seemed like the Falcons offense was a shell of itself, it just fell back to what we have come to expect from Matt Ryan and Co. in the past. For instance, Atlanta still Gnished second in offensive yards and points per drive in After his re-draft cost got out of hand in 2017 (late-gfth round), Matt Ryan is likely going to be a value in 2018 leagues. Ryan has never been a world-beating fantasy asset, but he ll be much more appropriately valued in re-draft leagues this coming year. Ryan is entering the Gnal year of his 2013 contract extension and is a candidate to have his deal restructured/extended again this offseason. He ll be 33- years-old in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Matt Ryan bounce back in 2018? How big of a value will he be? RUNNING BACKS Devonta Freeman The Falcons regression on offense permeated to all of their players, and Devonta Freeman was far from immune to the dip in output. After Gnishing the 2016 season with 17.9 PPG (RB7), Freeman Gnished the 2017 campaign with just 14.4 PPG (RB17). As expected, Freeman ended this past year with just three top-12 (RB1) scoring weeks after having six RB1 Gnishes in It wasn t for lack of volume, either. Freeman actually averaged only one fewer touch per game in 2017 (16.6) than 2016 (17.6). Compared to their historic 2016 season, one of the most signigcant differences in the Falcons offense was not just regression in the passing game but less eecient run blocking. With Shanahan in 2016, the Falcons Gnished Grst in yards before Grst contact (2.4), but they fell to 14 th this past year (1.5) per PFF. Atlanta has their entire starting OL returning in 2018, so we'll see if Devonta Freeman can leap back into the elite fantasy RB conversation. Freeman was still the same player on per touch basis he forced more missed tackles per carry in 2017 versus 2016 but the Falcons step backward hurt him as a whole. Of course, this comes in spite of the fact Freeman dealt with concussion and knee issues for part of the 2017 season. Entering his age-26 season, it ll be interesting to see if Atlanta and Freeman can get back to elite fantasy prominence in It won t be for a loss of personnel, at the very least. Atlanta will likely return their entire starting OL this coming year. If Freeman ends up being a mid- to late-second round pick in 2018, he ll be a screaming value. Tevin Coleman Entering the Gnal year of his rookie deal, this may be Tevin Coleman s last season in Atlanta. Like the entire offense, Tevin Coleman suffered from Kyle Shanahan s departure in 2017.

54 Atlanta still Gnished tenth in YPC as a team (4.3), but it was a far cry from their top-three Gnish in 2016 as a team (4.6). Outside of Matt Ryan, the Falcons regression on offense affected Tevin Coleman most. Coleman s YPC was down -0.4 yards, his YPR fell by -2.5 yards, and he was the lowly RB26 in PPG after Gnishing as a top-15 fantasy back in After being a high-foor FLEX start for the 2016 season, Tevin Coleman Gnished as a top-15 scoring RB just three times during the whole 2017 campaign. Two of those three top-15 weeks were with Devonta Freeman on the sidelines (concussion). Most notably, Coleman s dip in fantasy output came not only the TD department but also his involvement as a pass catcher. In 2016, Coleman caught two or more passes in 12-of-16 games (including playoffs). Shanahan left, and Coleman subsequently had two or more receptions in just 8-of- 17 games (including playoffs). OC Steve Sarkisian must get Coleman going in the passing game more often in With one Gnal year left behind Devonta Freeman in Atlanta, Coleman will be 25-years-old when 2019 free agency comes around. Unless something unforeseen happens to Freeman or he gets hurt again Coleman s 2018 upside is tethered to the man in front of him on the depth chart. However, since he will likely hit free agency at a relatively young age, Coleman remains a buy in keeper/dynasty leagues for his workhorse potential at his next stop. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Devonta Freeman resume his spot on the RB1 (top-12) throne? Will Tevin Coleman be more involved as a pass catcher in 2018? Is this Coleman s Gnal year in Atlanta? WIDE RECEIVERS Julio Jones Julio had one of the most unlucky touchdown seasons in recent memory in It didn t help that after leading the league in passing TD rate in 2016 (7.1%), Matt Ryan was 21 st in Pass TD rate this past year (3.8%). Since 1970, there have been 83 individual seasons in which a player went for 1,400+ receiving yards. Based on that historical data, receivers that go over 1,400 yards in a single-season average 10.7 receiving TDs in that campaign. In 2017, Julio Jones became the Grst WR ever to go over 1,400 yards and score three or fewer TDs. Granted, Julio did start a little slow. However, after seeing 8.6 targets per game in his Grst ten contests, Julio Jones ended the year with double-digit passing looks six times and 11.0 targets per game in his Gnal eight contests (including postseason). For reference, DeAndre Hopkins led all WRs in targets/game (11.6). Julio s TD issues weren t for lack of involvement in the red-zone either. Julio had more targets inside of the ten-yard line per game in 2017 (0.63) than in 2016 (0.43). More specigcally (and incredibly), Julio Jones saw more total targets in the end-zone (18) than Rob Gronkowski (10) in The problem is that Julio and Matt Ryan failed to develop much chemistry on balls thrown in the endzone/red-zone. In fact, per ESPN s Mike Clay, a whopping 67% of Julio Jones end-zone targets were off-target which lead all receivers with ten or more end-zone targets in Again, per Clay, Jones should have scored nearly six TDs off of his end-zone passing looks this past year. He scored just one. Touchdowns have always been elusive for Julio he has just 11 red-zone TDs over the last Gve years but his 2017 issues were unforeseen. Even with only six receiving TDs, he Gnished as the WR6 in PPR PPG and, once again, was the league s most eecient receiver on a per route basis. Per PFF, Julio Jones has Gnished 1 st, 1 st, 1 st, 4 th, and 1 st in yards gained per route run over the past Gve years. The masses will likely allow Julio Jones ADP to slip into the early second round in 2018, but that would be an avoidable mistake. If Julio s voluminous role doesn t change, he is one of the best candidates for positive TD regression (i.e., progression) this coming season. Mohamed Sanu 2017 was another solid, if unspectacular, year for Mohamed Sanu in Atlanta. In fact, Sanu was the only member of the 2017 Falcons to improve off of his 2016 Ggures as he Gnished the year with 11.2 PPG (versus 9.9 PPG in 2016). Still, even with his increased per game output, Sanu was just the WR36 on the entire year. Running 68% of his routes from the slot, Mohamed Sanu served as the Falcons No. 2 target with 19% of team targets. Sanu s moderate volume and slot role caps his upside, but it keeps him in the WR3/4 conversation every week. Sanu turns 29-years-old in 2018 and will be a Gne late round, depth receiver in best-ball fantasy leagues again this coming season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Julio Jones Gnally run into some positive injury luck in 2018? How low will his ADP fall? TIGHT END

55 Austin Hooper Hooper failed to take a big leap forward onto the fantasy stage in his second year, parlaying his 65 targets into 49/526/3 of offense. With 17% of his yardage output coming on one play (88-yard TD), Hooper s 2017 stats look a little infated, too. Austin Hooper managed just Gve top-12 (TE1) weeks in 2017 and Gnished as the TE20 or worse his 11 other regular season games. After a slow regular season, Hooper bookended his low-foor production with a quiet post-season, too (4/18 on six targets in two games). The lone positive from 2017 is that Hooper managed to become a full-time player, averaging a 77% snap rate in 2017 compared to his lowly 44% snap percentage as a rookie. Still, Hooper enters the 2018 season as no more than a deep TE2 sleeper. He ll be 24- years-old this coming campaign. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Austin Hooper have any fantasy relevance in Year Three? Key Free Agents: DT Dontari Poe, DE Adrian Clayborn, K Matt Bryant, S Ricardo Allen (RFA), WR Taylor Gabriel Carolina Panthers (11-5; 2nd in NFC South) QUARTERBACK Interestingly enough, Cam Newton picked up the pace once WR Kelvin Benjamin left, averaging more than 6 FPG without Benjamin. Cam Newton After starting the year with QB17, QB27, and QB22 scoring weeks, Newton got off to one of his slowest starts ever in Hopefully, you didn t dump him after that. From Week 4 on, Cam Newton was up to his old tricks Gnishing as a QB1 (top-12) eight times and as a top-16 quarterback in 11 contests. The overarching reasons Newton regained high-end fantasy prominence was two-fold. First, and most importantly, Newton started running a lot more. In Weeks 1-3, Cam averaged just 4.7 rush attempts per game; from then on, Newton put up a ludicrous 9.7- attempt, 54-yard, 0.38-TD rushing stat line on a per game basis. It was classic Cam. In fact, Newton s 26 red-zone carries in 2017 nearly matched his historic 2015 total (29) in which he Gnished as fantasy s QB1. Dating back to his rookie year, Cam Newton has now Gnished as a top-four fantasy QB in Gve of seven seasons in Carolina. Secondly, we now have a large sample of data that suggests Cam Newton is a better real life and fantasy quarterback without Kelvin Benjamin on the Geld. These statistics were further exempliged when Benjamin was traded on Halloween. Over the past four seasons, Cam Newton has played 37 games with Benjamin in the lineup and 24 without him. With Benjamin active from (in 24G), Cam averages 21 PPG, has a TD-to-INT ratio (on a per game basis), and averages a pedestrian 7.0 YPA. Without Benjamin, Newton s stats jump to 27.6 PPG, TD-to-INT ratio, and a much stronger 7.4 YPA. More specigcally, Cam Newton s QB Rating with Benjamin in the lineup (24G) from is Without Benjamin, Newton s QB Rating vaults all the way up to For context, a QB Rating of 79.5 would have ranked 27th out of 32 qualiged QBs in A 94.7 QB Rating would have been 11th-best. Back fully healthy off of his shoulder injury, running at his usual rate, and now that Greg Olsen has a full offseason to rehab his foot injury Cam Newton will be back squarely on the top-gve QB radar in all 2018 leagues. The only question that remains is how new OC Norv Turner will acclimate in Carolina. Turner, a member of the NFL s Old Boys Club, will have to adapt his coaching style to Newton s unique talent. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: What weapons will the Panthers surround Newton with in 2018? Is Norv Turner able to adapt his coaching to Newton? RUNNING BACKS Christian McCaffrey McCaffrey ended up as a solid RB2 in fantasy in 2017 as a rookie, but his Grst pro year unmistakably needs context. Christian McCaffrey was the classic PPR-only play last year, Gnishing as the RB14 in PPR but as the RB22 in standard scoring. That s a vast gulf. The issue at hand at least in standard scoring came down to volume. McCaffrey averaged just 7.3 rush attempts per game last year, fewer than both Cam Newton (8.7) and Jonathan Stewart (13.7).

56 However, in full PPR formats, McCaffrey more than made up for his lack of rushing volume with an average 5.0-receptions and 41-yard receiving line on a per game basis. McCaffrey had double-digit PPR points in 12-of-16 contests as a rookie and was a top-25 back 11 times. Still, even with a high receiving foor, it is hard to mask McCaffrey s issue as a runner in McCaffrey averaged just 3.4 YPC on carries under center, but a big part of the problem was inconsistent offensive line play. This year, the Panthers opened up the tenthfewest yards before Grst contact per attempt (PFF) and their OL had the eighth-fewest adjusted yards (FootballOutsiders). Keep in mind, when he came out of Stanford, only Leonard Fournette (6.1) averaged more Yards Created per Attempt on carries with the QB under center than McCaffrey (5.7) in the 2017 RB class. Of course, McCaffrey enjoyed the third-best run-blocking OL, per Yards Created s data history. However, since teammate Jonathan Stewart may get cut he turns 31-years-old in 2018 and Carolina can save $2.2M against the cap by releasing him Christian McCaffrey may be in the driver's seat for a featured back role. The Panthers offensive line needs to improve, but the arrow is Grmly ticked upward on McCaffrey long-term. Jonathan Stewart As noted, Jonathan Stewart is unmistakably a cap casualty candidate heading into the 2018 offseason. Principally a TD-dependent fantasy option now, Jonathan Stewart has seen his YPC go from 4.6 > 4.1 > 3.8 > 3.4 over the last four seasons. That s not exactly a positive trend. Stewart had brutal 198/680 rushing and 8/52 receiving lines last year, saving his season with seven allpurpose TDs (six rushing). Now well past the age-30 curve for running backs, Stewart is a sell in 2018 fantasy leagues. Stewart has caught 16 balls in his last two seasons combined and has seen his role dwindle with Cam Newton often running in the red-zone plus Christian McCaffrey taking over the majority of snaps. In 2017, McCaffrey played on 71% of Panthers snaps; Stewart s snap rate was a paltry 39%. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Christian McCaffrey take another step forward in 2018? How early will he go in 2018 fantasy leagues? Will Jonathan Stewart be back? WIDE RECEIVERS Devin Funchess 2017 was an up-and-down year for the soon-to-be 24-year-old Devin Funchess. On the surface, Funchess posted career-highs across the board, parlaying his 111 targets into 63/840/8 receiving. Once Benjamin was traded mid-season, Devin Funchess averaged 13.5 PPR PPG besting Mike Evans (13.4) for the WR20 on the season. In the Grst Gve games after Benjamin was dealt, Devin Funchess got piping hot turning in an average 5/81/0.8 receiving line in Gve contests. However, in his Gnal three games, a shoulder injury slowed Funchess down considerably, and he Gnished the concluding three regular season games with just 6/78/1 on 14 targets. Funchess did jump back to life with 4/79 in the Panthers Wild Card game versus the Saints, though. After seeing 22% of team targets and 34% of air yards in 2017, Funchess opportunity signals that he is on the WR2 radar this coming year. If Funchess ends up being a mid- to late-sixth round pick, he ll be a screaming value. Still incredibly young Cooper Kupp is older Devin Funchess fantasy stock is looking up in Curtis Samuel After averaging just 13 YPG and playing on 36% of snaps a rookie, Curtis Samuel s Grst year was very disappointing. Kelvin Benjamin s departure opens up a future role as the Panthers No. 2 receiver behind Devin Funchess but Samuel is rehabilitating a broken ankle, and ligament damage suffered in a nasty injury in Week 10. Once Samuel returns, he ll compete for targets behind stud TE Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess, and pass-catching maven Christian McCaffrey. It s hard to imagine Samuel will have much re-draft appeal in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Devin Funchess operate as the Panthers No. 1 wideout? Will Carolina bring in more competition? Will Curtis Samuel get healthy in 2018? TIGHT END Greg Olsen For the Grst time in his career, Greg Olsen missed game action due to injury in Seriously. Since his rookie year (2007), Olsen did not miss a single game in any season from It was an incredibly ironman-like streak, but a Jones fracture cost Greg Olsen nine total games in 2017, and it slowed his effectiveness for most of the season. Olsen had just two good games all year, one came in Week 15 (9/116/1) and the other came in the Wild Card Round (8/107/1). Other than that, Olsen s 2017 campaign was ultimately forgettable. However, Olsen s prior production in his Gve previous years was unforgettable.

57 He Gnished as the TE6, TE6, TE4, TE4, and TE2 from with Cam Newton at the controls, averaging 4.8 receptions and 61 YPG in that span. With a full offseason to get his foot back to 100 percent, Greg Olsen is entering the Gnal year of his deal and will be 33-yearsold by the time the 2018 season rolls around. Olsen has plenty of good football left in the tank. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Greg Olsen get back to his old self in 2018? Key Free Agents: DE Julius Peppers, DT Star Lotulelei, K Graham Gano, G Andrew Norwell, TE Ed Dickson, WR Kaelin Clay (RFA) New Orleans Saints (11-5; 1st in NFC South) QUARTERBACK Drew Brees Since Drew Brees did not receive a contract extension by the end of the 2017 league year, his contract is voided, and he is technically a free agent in However, the Saints are not going to let him get out of the door. All reports indicate that Brees and the Saints are working on a two-year deal for the 39-year-old quarterback and that he will be back in New Orleans. Brees does have a little leverage here he could test the market since he cannot be franchise tagged but it d be a shock if Brees were not a Saint in In 2017, Brees had one of his most eecient quarterbacking seasons ever even though he did not lead to high-end fantasy stats. The Saints had a more balanced attack last year, running the ball on 45.3% of their offensive plays, which was a complete change of recent philosophy. In the three prior years, the Saints run rate was near the bottom of the league each season: 37.5% > 37.3% > 38.1%. Now, New Orleans re-commitment to the run came down to an improved defense, strong offensive line, a fantastic RB duo, and one of Brees most eecient seasons ever. Since the Saints defense improved mightily they ranked eighth in FootballOutsiders DVOA after Gnishing 31 st, 32 nd, and 31 st in the three prior years New Orleans did not have to rely on Brees right arm to keep them alive in shootouts. As a result of the more balanced attack with a better defense, Drew Brees posted Saints career-lows in YPG (271), TDs (23), and most importantly, attempts per game (33.5). Before 2017, Drew Brees had Gnished as a top-six fantasy QB in every single year as a Saint. This past year, he Gnished as QB11. However, even with Brees fantasy ceiling down, he still had a fantastic year. He set a new NFL record in single-season completion percentage (72%), was Grst in YPA (8.1), and second among all QBs in QB Rating (103.9). Brees only Gnished as a top-10 fantasy QB in 27% of his game his Gve-year average before 2017 was 57% -- but Brees downturn in fantasy stats did not equate to a dip in overall offensive eeciency. With the game-plan set of a more balanced attack, the days of Brees owning one of the best weekly ceilings may be over. However, we can take solace in watching a future Hall-of-Famer eeciently carve up defenses at the spry age of 39-years-old in Brees still has a ton of gas left in the tank. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the fantasy community adjust to Brees new, lower volume passing role? How late will he go in 2018 fantasy drafts? RUNNING BACKS Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara Arguably the best running back duo ever, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara formed a historically eecient and explosive tandem in It genuinely was marvelous. After Adrian Peterson was traded (in Week 5), Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined to average 41.7 PPR PPG the single-best team RB season over the past 12 years. Ingram and Kamara were so good that they sent us back to Seriously. The last RB tandem in which both backs surpassed 1,400 yards from scrimmage were the 85 Browns duo, Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack. That s right. Bernie Kosar was the Browns QB. Cleveland was competing for Super Bowls, and Ronald Reagan was the President of the United States. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara just came along and smashed the '85 Browns' Byner-Mack tandem, as both Saints backs became the Grst duo ever to post 1,500 yards from scrimmage each. For fantasy, Kamara Gnished as the RB4 in PPG (19.7) while Ingram wasn t too far behind (RB7; 17.8 PPG). Mark Ingram had the better role for fantasy, getting 301 opportunities and having 20 touches inside of the ten-yard line (red-zone) compared to Kamara s 221 opportunities and 12 inside-ten touches (red-zone). Even though Ingram had 80 more opportunities (attempts plus targets), Kamara scored 13 all-purpose TDs to Ingram s 12. As a result, Alvin Kamara became the Grst running back ever to score over 300 PPR points in a single-season and have fewer than 150 carries this year. Kamara had 120 carries.

58 As a rookie, Kamara scored a touchdown on an astronomical 6.6% of his touches. For reference, among top-50 RB scorers, the typical touchdown per touch rate is 3.0%. Kamara s 6.6% TD/touch rate tied for the 11th-highest scoring percentage for any running back to see over 200 touches since Marshall Faulk s 7.8% TD/touch rate is highest of all-time. Now, Alvin Kamara is going to experience some negative TD regression unless his volume rises in A 6.6% scoring rate is unsustainable year-over-year when the average expected rate is 3.0%. That doesn t mean Kamara is a bad long-term investment, though. If we discount Kamara s game in which he left early (concussion in Week 14), he averaged 13.0 PPR PPG as a receiver alone. That would have been good enough for a WR22 Gnish if solely compared to receivers. Both Ingram and Kamara are going to be worthy of top-15 selections in 2018 re-draft rooms, but Ingram s extensive role both in general and in the red-zone may make him just a slightly better investment. Still, Alvin Kamara makes up a ton of ground on Ingram in fantasy as a receiver since he saw 6.3 targets/game in 2017 compared to Ingram s 4.4. It ll be very intriguing to see how the market shakes out on this incredibly dynamic duo. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How early will Ingram and Kamara go in 2018 drafts? Will either back be a value relative to the rest of the early-round RB crop? How hard will negative TD regression hit Alvin Kamara? WIDE RECEIVERS Michael Thomas Thomas Grst two years of his career have been an enormous success. Michael Thomas has averaged 76.8 YPG in his Grst two pro seasons, good enough for tenth-most among qualiged receivers all-time. Thomas 76.8 YPG in his Grst two seasons trails the likes of Anquan Boldin (76.9), AJ Green (77.6), Jerry Rice (78), Randy Moss (85), and Odell Beckham (102). Entering his age-25 season, Michael Thomas is primed to be a top-12 fantasy pick in both re-draft and dynasty/keeper formats in With Brandin Cooks in New England and off of the roster in 2017, Thomas target share (19% > 28%) and team share of air yards (23% > 42%) rose astronomically in his second season. In fact, in the six prior seasons, the Saints lead receiver only averaged 20% of team targets per season. With such a concentrated passing attack that started and ended with Michael Thomas, fantasy owners were treated to one of the few consistent receivers last year. Thomas Gnished as a WR2 or better (top-24) in 73% of his contests during the fantasy regular season as he saw eight or more targets in 14-of-16 games and had 60 yards and/or a TD in 13-of-16. Thomas bookended his stellar regular season with monster 8/131 and 7/85/2 stat lines in the playoffs against the Panthers and Vikings, respectively. As the Saints lead receiver with a huge share of targets and air yards, Michael Thomas was completely immune to the team s downturn in passing output. Coming off of a WR7 (PPG) Gnish attached to one of the most balanced teams in the league, Michael Thomas is as safe as they come in fantasy football. Ted Ginn Ginn had some explosive weeks and popped in the playoffs, but Michael Thomas is primed to be a top-12 fantasy picks in 2018 after an incredibly Grst two seasons, including a jump in target share from 19% in 2016 to 28% in by in large, it was a ho-hum year for the soon-to-be 33-year-old speedster. Ted Ginn only saw 70 targets (53/787/4) in 2017 and Gnished as the WR44 on the full season. Since Willie Snead was never fully inserted into the offense, Ginn played fourth Gddle behind Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram on the Saints target totem pole. Ginn will, once again, be worth a shot in best-ball (draft only) leagues in 2018 as he returns to the Saints. New Orleans snatched Ginn on a very team-friendly deal in the 2017 free agency period and he s only due $4.5M this next year. He ll be in the WR5 mix in 2018 draft rooms. Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman Both Snead and Coleman are restricted free agents heading into RFA s are allowed to negotiate contracts with other teams, but the original team has the right of Grst refusal and can match the contract with the competing team bringing the player back on their recently offered free agent deal. Willie Snead had a tough go of it in 2017 as a hamstring injury hampered his availability early on, and he subsequently fell behind Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, and Brandon Coleman on the Saints depth chart. A popular Gfth to sixth round WR3 pick last year, Snead ended in 2017 with eight catches for 92 yards. Like Snead, Brandon Coleman will be 26-years-old during the 2018 season and is allowed to negotiate with other teams in free agency.

59 However, Coleman is coming off of a lowly 23/364/3 season in 2017 as the Saints primary slot receiver. It s possible one or both of Snead and Coleman play elsewhere in Barring any signigcant changes, Willie Snead and Brandon Coleman are entering 2018 as speculative WR5/6 bets only. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Is Michael Thomas a locked-in Grst rounder in 2018 fantasy leagues? Will the Saints bring in a new receiver in the offseason? Will Willie Snead or Brandon Coleman be back in New Orleans? TIGHT ENDS Josh Hill and Coby Fleener One of the Saints remaining weaknesses on their re-vamped roster is at tight end. Josh Hill is entering the Gnal year of his deal will turn 28-years-old in Coby Fleener, in classic Fleener Fashion, is another story. It s hard to believe, but Fleener will be 30-years-old in 2018 as he enters Year Three in New Orleans. From the Saints perspective, Fleener s Gve-year, $35M ($15M guaranteed) deal signed in March 2016 has been an unmitigated disaster. Across 27 games, Fleener has averaged 2.7 receptions and 34.3 YPG as a member of the Saints. Even worse, Fleener hasn t even been a full-time player in this period he s played on 48% of team snaps and he ended 2017 on IR (concussion). There is a zero percent chance Coby Fleener is back in New Orleans in 2018 on his current deal, as he s set to count an astronomical $8.2M against the cap. The Saints have a few options they can restructure his contract or cut him outright but there is no doubt GM Mickey Loomis would love to have this Fleener decision back. The Saints do not have a tight end worthy of serious fantasy consideration heading into Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Coby Fleener be back in New Orleans in 2018? Will the Saints bring in another TE in the draft and/or free agency? Key Free Agents: QB Drew Brees (void; will re-sign), CB Delvin Breaux (RFA), DT Nick Fairley, DE Alex Okafor, S/CB Kenny Vaccaro, OL Senio Kelemete, WR Brandon Coleman (RFA), WR Willie Snead (RFA) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11; 4th in NFC South) QUARTERBACK Jameis Winston A team many expected to take a big leap forward, the Bucs disappointed mightily in Tampa Bay failed to get rolling last year as a mid-season shoulder injury to Jameis Winston essentially halted any shot at a positive season for the Bucs. Winston missed three total games and parts of two more en route to a mediocre QB17 Gnish in PPG. As a team, Tampa Gnished right at league average in points scored per drive (1.82) but there are some prominent glimmers of hope. First and foremost, while Tampa struggled to put points on the board, the Bucs still Gnished seventh-best in yards per drive (33.5). Winston himself is quietly coming off of his most eecient years as a pro. That s right. Jameis Winston set a career-high in YPA (7.9) and a career-low in interception rate (2.5%) en route to his third-straight year of an improved QB Rating. In fact, Winston s QB Rating has improved each season he has been in the league (84.2 > 86.1 > 92.2). It went pretty much unnoticed since the Bucs were out of playoff contention, many fantasy owners were sick of dealing with Tampa, and Jameis Winston was subsequently dropped in a bunch of leagues but Winston ended the year red-hot. After returning from his shoulder injury in Week 13, Jameis Winston Gnished the Gnal Gve games of the year throwing for at least 270 yards and/or multiple scores in each contest, he completed 67% of his passes, owned a 99.2 QB Rating, and a monstrous 8.7 YPA. For reference, Winston s 8.7 YPA in Weeks would have trailed only Jimmy Garoppolo (8.8) and would have beaten Drew Brees (8.1) for the second-best YPA on the entire year. It didn t come until late in the year, but at least Jameis Winston Gnished the 2017 regular season a positive note parlaying QB8, QB18, QB3, QB16, and QB4 fantasy weeks in his Gnal Gve contests. The Bucs still need to improve their offensive line Winston was sacked on 7% of his dropbacks this year (league average is 6.5%) but even in a lost season mired by injury, Winston s arrow is still ticked upwards heading into Even though Winston never really got on the same page as DeSean Jackson and middling HC Dirk Koetter is back for 2018, at least the Bucs will be returning the same exact offensive core and scheme in the coming year. Winston will likely be a slight post-hype sleeper in 2018 fantasy leagues. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Bucs take the next step-forward in 2018? Can Jameis Winston continue his upward ascension?

60 RUNNING BACKS Doug Martin, Peyton Barber, Charles Sims, and Jacquizz Rodgers Lumping all of the Bucs backs together is the only way to make a modicum of sense out of this group. Doug Martin is entering his age-29 season and there is almost no way he returns to Tampa Bay on his current deal. As a result of the four-game suspension he received at the end of the 2016 season, all of Martin s guaranteed money in his contract is completely wiped out. Basically, the Bucs can save $6.8M straight up against the cap by cutting him pre-june 1. After his brutal 2017 season in which he Gnished last in missed tackles forced per touch and 47th-of-53 in yards after Grst contact, Doug Martin has zero leverage to stay in Tampa Bay on his deal. Martin will likely have to take a one-year deal elsewhere in The Bucs back currently on their depth chart that has the best chance of making the 2018 squad is Peyton Barber. After Doug Martin proved he was going to continue to struggle, Peyton Barber was handed 15 or more touches in four of the Gnal Gve Bucs games. Barber at least averaged 4.3 YPC in that span (compared to Martin s 2.9) and showed some agility, of which Martin had virtually zero. Barber forced at least one missed tackle on 11.1% of his carries (per PFF) in 2017 compared to Martin s basement-level 4.3%. The league average is 14.5%. Barber is an exclusive rights free agent in 2018, meaning only the Bucs can sign him to a one-year deal to retain him. Tampa would be wise to keep Barber as a backup at the league-minimum in Meanwhile, Charles Sims is an unrestricted free agent entering his age-28 season in He likely won t be back in Tampa after having just 72 carries across 23 games over the past two years. Jacquizz Rodgers is also entering his age-28 season, but 2018 will be his eighth year in NFL compared to Sims Gfth. Rodgers is under contract with the Bucs for 2018, but he has zero dead money left in his deal, and Tampa can save his entire $1.6M salary if he is cut pre-june 1. For a team that needs an infusion of talent/youth at the position, it wouldn t be surprising if this entire running back corps looked different this coming year. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Who will start for the Bucs in 2018? How aggressive will Tampa get re-vamping their RB corps? WIDE RECEIVERS Evans is sure to fall in drafts in 2018, making him a prime value despite a down 2017, when he Gnished as just the WR20 in PPR. Mike Evans Perhaps the most disappointing receiver during the 2017 season, Mike Evans Gnished as the WR20 in PPG this past year after his WR3 hammer Gnish in Evans did have his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season but he had just Gve TDs to show for it. With the additions of DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard into the fold, Evans 24% target share ranked just 15 th among all players in Evans target share in 2016 was 29% (seventh), and in 2015 it was a monster 30% (Grst). However, even though Evans touchdown and target totals disappointed not all optimism is lost. He still managed to Gnish as a WR1 (top-12) receiver in 43% of his games. During his WR3 (PPG) campaign in 2016, Evans was a WR1 47% of the time. Furthermore, even though Evans failed to back up his amazing fourth place Gnish in yards gained per route run (2.28) in 2016 with another ceiling year he still Gnished well above average in PFF s YPRR at 1.70 (23 rd). a value across all 2018 fantasy leagues, including keeper/dynasty. Frankly, the greatest problem in Evans fantasy game last year was something he couldn t control: luck. In 2017, Evans saw a career-high nine targets inside of the opponents ten-yard line (red-zone), but he only had one TD to show for it. In his career, Mike Evans has scored on 58% (11-of-19) of his targets inside of the ten-yard line. This year, Evans scoring rate inside of the ten was 11%. Evans massive target share of 29 to 30 percent may be gone with DeSean Jackson around, but recency bias and Evans unlucky TD output will hold down his average draft position in Evans is almost certainly going to be DeSean Jackson Like teammate Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson was near equally disappointing in Jackson struggled to get off of the ground last year as Jameis Winston s absence in the lineup for 5-of-16 full games harpooned Jackson s ability to develop much continuity within the offense. Jackson posted just 50/668/3 last year, ending the 2017 fantasy regular season with career-lows in YPG (47.7), YPR (13.4), longest reception (41), and PPG Gnish (WR49).

61 However, Jackson is a guaranteed bounce-back candidate in 2018 as he enters his age-32 season. Jackson s 2.7 yards of separation nearly mimicked his 2016 Ggure in Washington (2.9). Furthermore, DeSean Jackson and Jameis Winston only played eight full games together last year but in those contests, Jackson led the Bucs in team share of air yards (29%), his average depth of target was a monstrous 17.6 yards downgeld, and he saw 17% of team targets. Jackson may not have Glled the stat sheet in those eight full games with Winston (27/411/1), but his opportunity was right in line with what we were accustomed to in Washington (30% AY; 17% target share; 14.9 adot in 2016). If that type of usage continues, Jackson s production will spike back to the normal WR2/3 output he s produced his entire career. Chris Godwin Coming out of his rookie season only 22-years-old in 2018, Chris Godwin will be a trendy late-round sleeper in leagues this coming year. It was a small sample, but Chris Godwin was given a full-time role either via suspension (Mike Evans) or injury (DeSean Jackson) in three games last year. Godwin made the most of them, hitting receiving lines of 5/68, 3/98, and 7/111/1 in the three contests in which he played over 70% of snaps. Ideally, the Bucs would immediately make Godwin their full-time slot receiver and let Adam Humphries walk in free agency. Humphries is a restricted free agent. Without some opportunity opening up, though Chris Godwin will remain off of the fantasy radar in 2018 as he saw just 7% of targets when Jameis Winston, DeSean Jackson, and Mike Evans were all on the Geld together. Humphries potential departure would open up 14% of team targets for Godwin to soak up. Godwin s role, either as a full-time player or the Bucs slot wideout, will be a storyline to watch this summer. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson bounce back in 2018? Will Chris Godwin become a fulltime Gxture in the Bucs attack? TIGHT ENDS OJ Howard and Cameron Brate A potential breakout candidate in 2018, OJ Howard ended his rookie season on IR (foot) but there were way more positives than negatives to take away from his campaign. Howard Gnished 2017 with 26/432/6, averaging a gargantuan 16.6 YPR. For reference about just how dominant that is, Rob Gronkowski is second among all players in YPR over the last three years (16.9). What s more, Howard s high yards/reception Ggure correlated to an astonishing Gnish in yards gained per route run (small sample alert). Per PFF, Howard Gnished Gfth among all qualiged TEs in YPRR behind Gronkowski (2.40), Hunter Henry (2.05), Travis Kelce (2.03), and Zach Ertz (2.0). That s not bad company to keep. However, Howard s potential 2018 breakout will be contingent upon what the Bucs decide to do with Cameron Brate. A former UDFA, Cameron Brate has earned a long-term deal but the Bucs may not give it to him since they just spent Grst-round draft capital on Howard just one year ago. Reports indicate Brate is seeking a deal in the $6.5M-7.5M range. A restricted free agent, the Bucs can match any deal Cameron Brate signs on the open market. Brate has an average receiving line of 3.4-receptions, 40.4-yards, and 0.45 TDs over the past two years. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Bucs bring back Cameron Brate in 2018? If not, just how high will OJ Howard s ADP soar? Key Free Agents: CB Brent Grimes, S TJ Ward, TE Cameron Brate (RFA), G/C Evan Smith, DT Clinton McDonald, RB Charles Sims, RB Peyton Barber (ERFA), WR Adam Humphries (RFA) GRAHAM BARFIELD SENIOR ANALYST Graham is a senior analyst for Fantasy Guru and works closely with statistics to produce quanitative analysis for complementary weekly content. He will be appearing before the season and during the season on The Fantasy Guru Podcast with John Hansen and Joe Dolan. Be sure to follow Graham on Twitter

62 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: NFC North Tom Brolley published on January 31, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Chicago Bears (5-11, 4 in NFC North) QUARTERBACKS Mitch Trubisky Trubisky didn t do much in his rookie to get excited about the future, but he also didn t do anything to make us think that he ll be a bust. He played with some of the worst receivers in the league under one of the worst coaching staffs, but he didn t implode under tough conditions. For a 23-year-old rookie QB, we ll count it as a minor victory. Trubisky completed 196/330 passes for 2193 yards (59.4%, 6.6 YPA), 7 TDs, and 7 INTs and he added 41/248/2 rushing in 13 games. He averaged just FPG, but he did at least [nish as a top-12 QB twice in Weeks Among 82 rookie QBs to attempt 225+ passes in their [rst year all-time, Trubisky was 22nd on this list in QB Rating (77.5). Trubisky we ll be in a much better position to succeed with Andy Reid disciple Matt Nagy taking over the offense. Nagy also brought in former Oregon HC Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator, so we have to think Hagy and Helfrich will be better We may not be particularly excited about Trubisky's future, but we're optimistic the new coaching staff has what it takes to give Trubisky a bump forward. equipped to take advantage of Trubisky s athleticism. Hopefully, Trubisky will see a major bump in production going from a terrible coach to a good offensive mind, much like Jared Goff saw this past year with Sean McVay. Mike Glennon It didn t take long for Glennon to get exposed. The Bears pulled the plug on him after four mostly dreadful games, with most of his production coming in games after he turned the ball over a ton in the [rst half. Glennon completed 93/140 passes for 833 yards (66.4%, 6.0 YPA), 4 TDs, and 5 INTs in his four games. The Bears are all but guaranteed to release him this off-season unless they want to pay an extra $10.5 million to keep him around as a backup QB. Glennon will make $18.5 million guaranteed for playing four games pretty good work if you can get it. He ll be looking for backup work this off-season, and he could be a candidate to go back to Tampa with Ryan Fitzpatrick hitting free agency. th Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Trubisky make some major strides with a much-improved coaching staff? Where does Glennon end up as a backup? RUNNING BACKS Jordan Howard Howard wasn t exactly the easiest guy to own in 2017 because of too many sporadic performances. It didn t help that he saw inconsistent game scripts in an offense that couldn t throw the ball for most of the season. In Weeks 1-16, Howard [nished as a top-12 RB [ve times, as a top-24 RB eight times, and outside the top-36 six times. Howard had just two games with 20+ FP and [nished with fewer than 10 FP seven times. Overall, Howard posted 276/1122/9 rushing (4.1 YPC) and 23/125/0 receiving on 32 targets (5.4 YPR, 71.9% catch rate) while playing 57.7% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season at the RB16 with FPG, ranking just behind Rex Burkhead and just behind Dion Lewis. We [gured it would be difcult for him to duplicate his excellent rookie season when he averaged 5.2 YPC and 87.5 yards/game, but he still averaged 4.1 YPC and 70.1 yards/game in an offense that [nished with the 4th- fewest PPG (16.5). We d expect new HC Matt Nagy to stay committed to Howard as the workhorse back, and this offense could be on the rise with Mitch Trubisky entering his second season likely with an improved cast of WRs. Howard had a pretty rich price tag last summer as the RB7 with an ADP of With his situation likely to be improved, he could go down as a mini-bargain this summer if he falls out of the top-12 RBs and into the third round, as expected. Tarik Cohen It s rare when a player comes out of absolutely nowhere to be a fantasy phenom in Week 1 but that s exactly what Cohen did he was the RB81 with an ADP of He became the hot Waiver Wire add for Week 2, but he couldn t keep it up for long with an uncreative coaching staff. Cohen posted 87/370/2 rushing (4.3 YPC) and 53/353/1 receiving on 71 targets (6.7 YPR, 74.6% catch rate) while playing 35.7% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the RB36 with 9.27 FPG, ranking just behind Gio Bernard and just

63 ahead of Orleans Darkwa. In Weeks 1-16, he [nished as a top-12 RB just once (in Week 1), as a top-24 RB four times, and outside the top-36 seven times. Three of his top-24 performances came in Weeks 1-3, as he topped 10+ FP just three times in his [nal 13 games and saw 10+ touches four times. Outside of QB Mitch Trubisky, Cohen could bene[t the most from the Matt Nagy head coaching hire because he worked plenty with small, dynamic players like Tyreek Hill, Albert Wilson, and De Anthony Thomas. We do worry that Cohen could be a more impactful real-life player than a fantasy player, but we should have a better idea next season with a competent offensive coaching staff game planning for him. Benny Cunningham Cunningham played more than most Bears fans wanted this season, taking away snaps from the much more dynamic Tarik Cohen and lead back Jordan Howard. Cunningham posted 20/240/2 receiving on 26 targets (12.0 YPR, 76.9%) and 9/29 rushing while playing 19.0% of the snaps in 14 games. He should [nd work again as a depth option as a free agent, and he has some juice as a receiver. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: WIDE RECEIVERS Cameron Meredith Meredith rose from obscurity to be a key player for plenty of fantasy championships in We were excited to see if he could be even better in his third season, but it wasn t meant to be after he tore his ACL and MCL in the third preseason game. The Bears terribly missed Meredith, with their WRs averaging just 20.4 FPG second-fewest behind the Bills WRs (20.1). Meredith said after the season that he expects to be ready for training camp, but we ll see if he s the top option heading into 2017 with the Bears expected to bolster their weak WR corps for Mitch Trubisky. Kendall Wright Wright was the closest thing to a fantasy relevant receiver for the Bears this season. He posted 59/614/1 receiving on 91 targets (10.41 YPR, 64.8% catch rate) while playing 56.0% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR62 with 7.90 FPG, ranking just ahead of Ryan Grant and just behind Adam Humphries. In Weeks 1-16, Wright [nished as a top-12 WR once and as a top-24 WR four times. Rookie QB Mitch Trubisky peppered him with targets in the [nal four games, totaling 26 catches on 38 targets in Weeks The Bears aren t exactly teeming with assets at WR, so Wright could certainly be back as their slot WR. They aren t going to give him much more than the $4 million per year that they gave him for 2017, but it s not like Wright s stock has changed much compared to last off-season. Dontrelle Inman The Bears jipped a 2018 seventh-round pick for Inman mid-season, but he made just a small impact during his time with the Bears. He posted 23/334/1 receiving in eight games with the Bears, and he totaled 25/343/1 receiving on 44 targets (13.7 YPR, 56.8% catch rate) in 12 games between the Chargers and Bears. He did post 810 receiving yards in 2016 when the Chargers dealt with a slew of injuries, but Inman has established that he s better off as a secondary receiver. The Bears need to revamp their entire WR corps, but Inman could be a stopgap if they decide to go young at the position. Kevin White (Chi) White has been one of the more disappointing top-10 picks in recent memory. He s barely been able to even get on the [eld he s played [ve of 48 games (10.4%) and he s looked slow and lethargic when we have seen him. White fracture his scapula in the season opener and missed the rest of the season. We don t like to write off any players, but at this point, it would be shocking if White becomes an impact receiver. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Meredith get back to his 2016 form after missing all off last season? Will the Bears look to retain Wright and/or Inman or will they revamp their entire WR corps? Will White ever make an impact? TIGHT ENDS Adam Shaheen As we expected, the Bears brought along Shaheen very slowly as he made the jump from Division II to the NFL. He had just a single catch through his [rst eight games, but he started to come on in Weeks after Zach Miller s catastrophic knee injury in Week 8. Shaheen posted 12/127/3 receiving on 15 targets (10.6 YPR, 85.7% catch rate) while playing just 29.7% of the snaps in 13 games he missed the [nal three games with a chest injury. The Bears should ve given him more run with their season going nowhere, but he should get his chance to be a starter from the jump in Dion Sims presence doesn t make it a slam dunk that Shaheen breaks out next season, but new HC Matt Nagy has to see a lot of his former TE Travis Kelce in his new TE Shaheen. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Shaheen make a leap after with a full year under his belt? Key Free Agents: WR Kendall Wright, WR Dontrelle Inman, RB Benny Cunningham, TE Zach Miller, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Prince Amukamara, QB Mark Sanchez, DE Mitch Unrein, K Cairo Santos, K Mike Nugent, OLB Sam Acho, OG Tom Compton, ILB Christian Jones, OLB Lamarr Houston, WR Josh Bellamy, P Pat O Donnell, WR Cameron Meredith (RFA), CB Bryce Callahan (RFA), TE Daniel Brown (ERFA). nd

64 nd Detroit Lions (9-7, 2 in NFC North) QUARTERBACKS Matthew Stafford Stafford has quietly been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs since he started his consecutive games streak in Not only has he [nished as a top-12 QB in six of the last seven seasons, but he s also played in all 112 games even playing with major ankle and hand injuries in That means he s been consistent and always on the [eld, two things any fantasy owner likes. In 2017, Stafford completed 371/565 passes for 4446 yards (65.7%, 7.9 YPA), 29 TDs, and 10 INTs and he added 29/98 rushing in 16 games. He ended the season as the QB10 with FPG, just behind Ben Roethlisberger and just ahead of Philip Rivers. In Weeks 1-16, he [nished as a top-12 QB six times and outside the top-20 four times. Stafford did have a run of six straight QB13 or better performances in Weeks 5-11, averaging FPG in that span, but he failed to do it again in his [nal [ve games of the fantasy season. He tossed for multiple TDs 10 times and failed to throw a TD just twice. Stafford s averaged 21.5 FPG and/or 7.1+ YPA in six of his last seven seasons, and his receivers could be better if Kenny Golladay takes a leap to give him three legit threats at WR. The Lions will also maintain continuity on offense with new HC Matt Patricia keeping OC Jim Bob Cooter in the fold, who has worked well Stafford. He ll likely fall just outside of the top-12 QBs picked next summer just like he did last summer (QB14, ADP) which will make him a nice bargain for those who smartly wait to draft QBs. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the consistent Stafford go down as a nice bargain again this summer? RUNNING BACKS Ameer Abdullah The Lions went with the status quo last off-season when it came to their back[eld, hoping that a healthy Abdullah could be the magic elixir after a lost 2016 campaign. He couldn t [x this broken back[eld one that hasn t had a 100-yard rusher in a game since 2013 and he ended the season as the #3 RB behind Theo Riddick and Tion Green. Abdullah posted 165/552/4 rushing (3.4 YPC) and 25/162/1 receiving (6.5 YPR, 71.4% catch rate) while playing 40.5% of the snaps in 14 games he missed two games with a neck injury. He ended the season as the RB38 with 9.03 FPG, ranking just ahead of Kenyan Drake and just behind Orleans Darkwa. In Weeks 1-16, Abdullah [nished as a top-12 RB just once, as a top-24 only three times, and outside the top-36 eight times. He topped 10+ FP just [ve times, an incredibly disappointing total considering he was the RB25 with an ADP of He saw double-digit carries in each of his [rst 10 games before totaling just 21 carries in his [nal four games. The Lions won t go with the status quo at RB again this off-season. Abdullah could be stuck in a secondary role with the Lions likely to bring in a lead-runner type. Theo Riddick The Lions back[eld was once again broken thanks to yet another disappointing campaign from Ameer Abdullah. That left Riddick to be the top option out of this back[eld for the third straight year, but he didn t exactly light it up for fantasy purposes. Riddick posted 84/286/3 rushing (3.4 YPC) and 53/444/2 receiving on 71 targets (8.4 YPR, 74.6% catch rate) while playing 44.2% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the RB33 with 9.75 FPG, ranking just behind Bilal Powell and just ahead of James White. In Weeks 1-16, Riddick [nished as a top-12 RB once, as a top-24 four times, and outside the top-36 eight times. He topped 10+ FP just six times but he eclipsed 15+ FP just twice, so he was [ne as a PPR jex option but not much more. Riddick s role as one of the league s best receiving backs is pretty secure, especially since he s under a pretty friendly contract through However, the Lions intend to bring in a lead-runner type this off-season, which could push Abdullah into more passing situations next season. There s a chance this back[eld could become more segmented if another back is added, which could hurt Riddick s appeal in PPR formats. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: What will Abdullah s role be next season, especially if the Lions add a lead runner this offseason? Will Riddick maintain his sizeable role as the receiving back? WIDE RECEIVERS Golden Tate Tate was still the go-to receiving option in a pinch for Matthew Stafford, but he had a lot more competition for targets than we ve seen in his [rst three seasons. Marvin Jones became the top big-play threat while TE Eric Ebron and WR Kenny Golladay emerged as viable weapons to go along with RB Theo Riddick. Even with the number of mouths growing, Tate went for 90+ catches for the fourth time in as many years with the Lions and for more than yards for the third time. Tate posted 92/1003/5 receiving on 120 targets (10.9 YPR, 76.7% catch rate) while playing 74.1% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR14 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Doug Baldwin and just behind teammate Marvin Jones. In Weeks 1-16, Tate [nished as a top-12 WR [ve times, as a top-24 WR eight times, and a top-36 WR eight times. However, the extra competition for targets led to an extremely disappointing seven appearances outside the top-48 WRs. Tate was a little more uneven than we re used to seeing, but he s still a force in PPR formats. The Lions have a big decision to make with TE Eric Ebron, which could go a long way in determining if Tate hits 90+ catches for a [fth straight season as he enters his 30s. After

65 Competition for targets limited Golden Tate's upside from time to time but he was still a major value in PPR, while Marvin Jones put together a stellar [nal 12 games of the season, ending as the WR13. averaging 6.3 catches/game and 8.0 targets/game in Weeks 1-9, Tate averaged 5.3 and 7.0 when Ebron emerged in Week 10. Tate [gures to be selected in the fourth to sixth round territory again this season after going as the WR21 with an ADP of 45.0 last summer. Marvin Jones After a slow opening month of the season, Jones turned in a remarkable [nal 12 games of the season. He was the top big-play receiver in the league, leading the NFL in YPR (18.1) among WRs with 50+ targets. He was an absolute monster in contested catch situations, helping him to eclipse 50+ yards in 11 of his last 12 games with 7 TDs mixed in. Overall, Jones posted 61/1101/9 receiving on 107 targets (18.1 YPR, 57.0% catch rate) while playing 94.3% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR13 with FPG, ranking just ahead of teammate Golden Tate and just behind Stefon Diggs. In Weeks 1-16, Jones [nished as a top-12 WR [ve times, as a top-24 WR [ve times, as a top-36 WR nine times, and outside the top-48 four times. Jones and QB Matthew Stafford clearly took a jump in Year Two together, showing trust in him down[eld and in the red zone he had a team-high 15 RZ targets. However, we have to worry about a regression for Jones next season if Kenny Golladay makes a leap this off-season heading into his second season. Jones saw a 25% target share with Golladay out in Weeks 4-9 and a 19% share once Golladay became a near full-time player from Week 12 on. Jones is going to be a fascinating player to track in drafts depending on which way the momentum goes on him this summer. If people are buying into the hype off 2017, his price could be a bit rich as a top-70 pick. If people think he s due to regress, he could become a value as a top-100 pick. Kenny Golladay Golladay got everyone s hopes up in his professional debut when he scored 2 TDs against the Cardinals. However, a nagging hamstring injury early in the season slowed his progress, but he certainly jashed big-play ability numerous times throughout the season. He actually had 5 catches of 40+ yards, a feat duplicated by only Calvin Johnson in Detroit since Golladay posted 28/477/3 receiving on 48 targets (17.0 YPR, 58.3% catch rate) while playing 66.7% of the snaps in 11 games. He ended the season as the WR58 with 8.6 FPG, ranking just ahead of Jeremy Maclin and just behind Martavis Bryant. He had just one top-36 performance in Weeks 1-16, [nishing as the WR5 in his pro debut in the season opener. Golladay did have 2+ catches in his [nal eight games after he returned in Week 10, and he jumped back ahead of T.J. Jones for the #3 WR spot. Golladay is huge at 6 4, and he can run and jump, so he has the potential to be a down[eld threat and a red-zone weapon for Matthew Stafford. Golladay is more physically gifted than both Marvin Jones and Golden Tate, and he could take a bite out of their production (especially Jones ) next season with a full off-season of workouts with Stafford. Golladay has breakout potential and, as long as the hype stays under control, we ll pushing him as a WR to take in the later rounds. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Tate make it [ve straight seasons with 90+ catches as he enters his 30s? Will Marvin maintain his standing as a big-play WR2 or is he due for a regression? Will Golladay play a hand in Marvin s regression with a breakout second season? TIGHT ENDS Eric Ebron Ebron was headed toward an absolutely dreadful season, but he righted the ship just in the nick of time for the second half of the season. He topped 8+ FP just once in his [rst eight games of the season. Ebron ended up being the TE5 in Weeks 10-16, posting 34/370/3 receiving for FPG in seven games. He won plenty of fantasy titles, [nishing as the TE2 in Week 16. Ebron posted 53/574/4 receiving on 86 targets (10.8 YPR, 61.6% catch rate) while playing just 51.4% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the TE16 with 8.4 FPG, ranking just behind Jared Cook and just ahead of Austin Seferian-Jenkins. In Weeks 1-16, Ebron [nished as a top-12 TE [ve times and outside the top-18 seven times. Overall, he still slightly underwhelmed considering his level of talent, but his season was headed down a much worse path. The Lions [gured out how to get him involved as the receiving TE, but it s disappointing that he wasn t a full-time player in Year Four as the former #10 overall pick in The Lions have a major decision looming with Ebron. They have a club option for $8.25 million next season, which would make him the seventh-highest paid TE next season (before free agency, obviously). His future is very much up in the air depending on what direction new HC Matt Patricia takes this team. The Lions could decide that $8.25 million too much to pay for a part-time player, but Ebron would likely draw plenty of interest on the open market because of his immense skillset at just 25 years old. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Do the Lions pick up their club option on Ebron or do they let him walk? Key Free Agents: DE Ziggy Ansah, C Travis Swanson, DT Haloti Ngata, OLB Tahir Whitehead, CB D.J. Hayden, RT Don Barclay, OLB Paul Worrilow, TE Darren Fells, SS Don Carey, SS Tavon Wilson, LT Greg Robinson, CB Nevin Lawson, OLB Dwight Freeney, WR T.J.

66 Jones (RFA), RB Zach Zenner (RFA), QB Jake Rudock (ERFA), DE Kerry Hyder (ERFA), WR Jace Billingsley (ERFA) Green Bay Packers (7-9, 3 in NFC North) rd QUARTERBACKS Aaron Rodgers What a bad break. Rodgers s broken collarbone on his throwing side derailed the Packers season and the seasons of many fantasy owners. He appeared in six games before suffering the injury in Week 6 before rushing back to appear in Week 15 before being shut down for good. Rodgers completed 154/238 passes for 1675 yards (64.7%, 7.0 YPA), 16 TDs, and 6 INTs and he added 24/126/0 rushing in seven games. He ended the season as the QB5 with FPG, even with his 4-attempt game mixed in when he broke his collarbone. He [nished as a top-8 QB in [ve of the six games he completed, topping 21+ FP in every full game he played. The Packers averaged 2.43 points/drive with Rodgers in the lineup, which would have been [fth-best in the league. They averaged 1.43 offensive points/drive without Rodgers 26 th in the league. Rodgers needed surgery to repair his broken collarbone, but he didn t need an additional surgery at the end of the season, with the Packers opting just to rest him after activating him just for Week 15. He s now broken each side of his collarbone, which is a bit worrisome as he enters his age-34 season. Still, Rodgers will be good to go for all offseason workouts, and he ll be in contention to be the [rst QB off fantasy draft boards next summer. Brett Hundley Two and a half seasons sitting and learning behind Aaron Rodgers didn t prepare Hundley for an unexpected starting opportunity in He took over for Rodgers after he broke his collarbone in Week 6, only relinquishing the job in Week 15 for one Rodgers start before the Packers were eliminated from the playoffs. Hundley completed 192/316 passes for 1836 yards (60.8%, 5.8 YPA), 9 TDs, and 12 INTs and he added 36/270/2 rushing in 11 games. He averaged FPG to [nish the season as the QB32. Hundley had two huge games against the Steelers and Browns, throwing for 6 TDs and 0 INTs, but he had just 3 TDs and 12 INTs in his other nine appearances. His legs were the only saving grace for fantasy, averaging 29.7 rushing yards/game with 2 TDs in his nine starts. Hundley is under contract for less than $1 million next season, but we wouldn t blame the Packers if they d want to upgrade their backup spot this off-season. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Rodgers be the [rst QB off the board coming off his broken collarbone? Will Hundley be the backup? RUNNING BACKS Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams In his limited chances as a rookie, Jones showed that he s the Packers best option as the lead back going forward. Jones is a slashing runner capable of breaking off big runs while fellow rookie Williams is more of bruising runner who needs volume to put up production. However, a nagging knee injury robbed Jones of a productive rookie season and opened up playing time for Williams. Jones posted 81/448/4 rushing (5.5 YPC) and 9/22/0 receiving on 18 targets (2.4 YPR, 50.0% catch rate) while playing 30.2% of the snaps in 12 games. His knee injury robbed him of three games and limited him in a handful of other games in the second half of the season. Jones [nished as a top-12 RB twice, topping 20+ FP in those games. Meanwhile, Williams took over for an injured Jones and an injured Ty Montgomery in Week 10, and he served as a workhorse the rest of the season. He saw 20+ touches in six of the last eight games with the Packers trying to hide Brett Hundley at quarterback. Williams posted 153/556/4 rushing (3.6 YPC) and 25/262/2 receiving on 34 targets (10.5 YPR, 73.5% catch rate) while playing 42.2% of the snaps in 16 games. He ranked as the RB10 in Weeks with FPG. He had three consecutive top-12 RBs [nishes in Weeks 12-14, and he [nished as a top-24 RB [ve times. Jones might be the best option in this back[eld but it s not like he s leaps and bounds better than Williams and Montgomery. The Packers will have a wide-open competition for playing time next season, and they could very well use a committee in this back[eld, which would be a headache for fantasy purposes. We ll see how this back[eld shakes out next summer. Ty Montgomery Montgomery s full transition from wide receiver to running back didn t go nearly as planned, with injuries eventually cutting short his season after eight games. He never could shake rib and wrist injuries, which eventually landed him on the injured reserve. Montgomery initially injured his wrist in Week 4 and needed surgery in December, but he should be ready for off-season workouts. Montgomery posted 71/273/3 rushing (3.9 YPC) and 23/173/1 receiving on 31 targets (7.5 YPR, 74.2% catch rate) while playing 50.7% of the snaps in eight games. He ended the season as the RB20 with FPG, ranking just behind DeMarco Murray and just behind Jerick McKinnon. He [nished as a top-12 RB three times, as a top-24 RB four times, and outside the top-36 three times. We had our reservations about Montgomery being able to hold up as a full-time back, and the Packers would be wise to slide Montgomery back into more of a change-of-pace/complementary role next season. We need to see how this back[eld will shake out, but

67 Montgomery would be worth a look for fantasy even if he s more of a passing back. Also, it wouldn t be completely shocking if the Packers would move him back into the slot WR spot if they cut Randall Cobb, but that seems like a last resort if they re not satis[ed with their deep WR group. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How will this back[eld shake out next summer? Are the Packers headed toward a dreaded RBBC or can one of these back emerge as the lead back? Will they elect to use Montgomery strictly as a passing back? WIDE RECEIVERS Davante Adams The Packers have plenty of decisions to make at WR this off-season, but they got one out of the way before the calendars jipped to The Packers signed impending free agent Adams to a four-year, $58 million extension, which included an $18 million signing bonus. The deal made him the fourth-highest paid WR on a per year basis ($14.5 million) behind only Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and A.J. Green. HC Mike McCarthy called Adams their best perimeter player at the end of the season, and the new deal backs it up. His play also backed it up, as he was the only receiver not to fall off a cliff after Aaron Rodgers broken collarbone in Week 6. Adams posted 74/885/10 receiving on 117 targets (12.0 YPR, 63.2% catch rate) while playing 84.5% of the snaps in 14 games. He did miss the [nal two games of the season after suffering his second concussion of the season, both of which came on nasty The only receiver to maintain consistent production after the Aaron Rodgers injury, Davante Adams [nished the season as the WR8. illegal hits. Adams ended the season as the WR8 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Julio Jones and just behind Tyreek Hill. In Weeks 1-16, Adams [nished as a top-12 WR seven times, as a top-24 WR eight times, as a top-36 WR nine times, and outside the top-48 four times. Adams [nished second to DeAndre Hopkins in WR TDs (10), and he tied for the third-most red-zone targets (23) overall. He even averaged more targets/game (7.7) than Jordy Nelson (7.0) did in Rodgers starts. Unless both Nelson and Randall Cobb agree to restructured deals, this WR corps could look a little different next season. Adams should remain Rodgers top target for the foreseeable future after quickly developing into a dominant red-zone threat and a nuisance to bring down after the catch. He went down as a bargain as a fourth-round pick last season (WR18, 40.4 ADP), and he could be a steal again if he falls into the third round this summer. Jordy Nelson Jordy went down as one of the biggest busts of the 2017, never coming close to living up to his 10.4 ADP and his WR6 status. Of course, no one foresaw QB Aaron Rodgers missing most of the season with a broken collarbone. Since he broke out in 2011, Nelson has averaged 17.8 FPG in Rodgers starts versus 10.4 FPG with all other QBs. Nelson posted 53/482/6 receiving on 88 targets (9.1 YPR, 60.2% catch rate) while playing 81.6% of the snaps in 15 games he missed the season [nale with a shoulder injury. He ended the season as the WR54 with 9.15 FPG, ranking just behind Danny Amendola and just ahead of Albert Wilson. In Weeks 1-16, Nelson [nished as top-12 WR three times, as a top-24 WR three times, as a top-36 WR [ve times, and outside the top-48 nine times. He was an absolute disaster with Hundley in the lineup, failing to eclipse 35 receiving yards in his [nal nine games, which included one Rodgers start. Jordy s target share in Rodgers six full games was now down to a dismal 14.5%, and he needed 6 TDs in in the [rst [ve weeks of the season kept him ajoat. We do have to worry that Nelson may be losing a step at 33 years old next season. After averaging 15+ YPR in four straight seasons from , he averaged just 13.0 YPR in 2016 coming off his missed 2015 season because of an ACL injury. He then saw his average plummet to 9.1 YPR this season, by far the worst average of his 10-year career. The Packers have a major decision to make when it comes to Nelson, who they could save $10.2 million in cap space on by cutting him. The Packers also just locked up Davante Adams long-term, ofcially signaling that Adams is the top dog in this passing game. It s difcult to imagine Nelson playing anywhere else, so there s a chance he d take some sort of restructured deal to play out the [nal year of his contract. There s also a chance the Packers could cut Randall Cobb, which would save the Packers about $9.5 million. If Cobb is gone, we could potentially see Nelson try to revitalize and extend his career by playing more inside like Bruce Arians did with Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Hines Ward. It will be fascinating to see what happens with Nelson this off-season and to see where he ends up going in fantasy drafts. Randall Cobb Cobb continued the downward trajectory of his career in 2017, falling below 10 YPR for the [rst time in his seven-year career. Granted, he did have to play with the terrible Brett Hundley for most of the season, but it s not like Cobb has been trending the wrong way the last three seasons. He posted 66/653/4 receiving on 92 targets (9.9 YPR, 71.7% catch rate) while playing 75.1% of the snaps in 15 games he missed a game to a chest injury. Cobb ended the season as the WR42 with 10.5 FPG, ranking just ahead of Marqise Lee and just behind Marquise Goodwin. In Weeks 1-16, Cobb [nished as a top-12 WR twice, as a top-24 WR four times, as a top-36 WR seven times, and outside the top-48 six times. Cobb hasn t been the same player the last three seasons, and he s prime cut candidate this off-season. The Packers can save about $9.5 million in cap space by releasing him, which seems like a logical move since they locked up Davante Adams long term at the end of the season. Cobb was once a $12.7 million player his cap number for

68 2018 when he averaged an impressive 13.4 YPR as a primary slot player in his [rst four seasons. He s now down to a 10.2 YPR average the last three seasons, so he s just not the same explosive player he once was when he broke into the league. Unless he agrees to a pay cut, Cobb could very well be playing elsewhere for the time in his career. Geronimo Allison Allison sat in the #4 WR spot for most of the season, but he s a player to watch this off-season with Jordy Nelson showing his age the last two seasons. Allison posted 23/253/0 receiving on 39 targets (11.0 YPR, 59.0% catch rate) while playing 34.1% of the snaps in 15 games. The Packers inked Davante Adams to an extension just before the end of the season, a clear indication that he s now the go-to guy in this WR corps. A youth movement may be afoot in Green Bay because the Packers can save close to $20 million in cap space by cutting Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. If the Packers move on from Cobb and/or Nelson, Allison would instantly become a viable fantasy option for In his [rst two seasons, Geronimo has shown a knack, much like Nelson, to get open when Aaron Rodgers begins to improv, which he loves to do. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Adams continue his ascension now as the top WR in Green Bay? Will Randall Cobb and/or Jordy Nelson be cut this off-season or will they restructure their deals to stay in town? Can Allison become a WR3 if Nelson and/or Cobb are gone next season? TIGHT ENDS None of note. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can the Packers [nd a pass-catching threat at TE for Aaron Rodgers? Key Free Agents: OG Jahri Evans, TE Richard Rodgers, WR Jeff Janis, CB Davon House, OLB Ahmad Brooks, SS Morgan Burnett, WR Geronimo Allison (ERFA), QB Joe Callahan (ERFA), QB Jerod Evans (ERFA) Minnesota Vikings (13-3, 1 in NFC North) QUARTERBACKS What a ride it was for Case Keenum, who thrived in Pat Shurmur's offense. There's still much to be decided however, with Teddy Bridgewater the slight favorite to be the Week 1 starter in st Case Keenum Keenum started the season as an afterthought in the Vikings quarterback room, but by the end of the season he was leading them to the NFC Championship Game. Keenum had by far a career campaign after serving as primarily a backup QB/spot starter in his [rst four seasons. He completed 325/481 passes for 3547 yards (67.6%, 7.4 YPA), 22 TDs, and 7 INTs and he added 40/160/1 rushing in 15 games. He ended the season as the QB19 with FPG, ranking just behind Carson Palmer and just ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo. As a starter in Weeks 3-16, Keenum [nished as a top-12 QB seven times and outside the top-20 three times. He [nished as the QB13 or better in seven straight games in Weeks 8-15, averaging FPG in that span. He had four huge games with 25+ FP, but he did fall below 16 FP in four of his starts. Keenum bene[tted greatly from playing with one of the best tandems at WR, but he did [t well into former OC Pat Shurmur s West Coast system. Keenum turned back into a pumpkin in the NFC title game with three turnovers, which likely cost him a little money and raised some valid questions about just how sustainable his 2017 campaign was. GM Rick Spielman has extremely tough decisions to make when it comes to the future of his quarterback position. Unsurprisingly, HC Mike Zimmer was noncommittal when it came to Keenum and the QB position at his year-end press conference. Keenum s situation feels a bit like the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation after his shocking 2015 season. We d expect Keenum to have a little more interest as a free agent since Fitz was older and had more of a track record of mediocrity before his breakout season. Still, teams aren t going to break the bank to bring in Keenum, so it will be interesting to see what kind of offers he ll see. Zimmer and the Vikings organization appear to still be big believers in Teddy Bridgewater, and he s the slight favorite to be Week 1 starter next season. However, they can t just hand him the job without a backup plan, and there s a scenario where both Bridgewater and Keenum are back to compete for the starting job in training camp. It s going to be a fascinating off-season for Keenum and the rest of these Vikings QBs. Teddy Bridgewater Bridgewater made it all the way back from his catastrophic knee injury suffered in training camp of 2016, a major accomplishment since there was some thought that he d never play again because of the severe nature of the injury. The Vikings activated Bridgewater in Week 10, but he played just a handful of snaps and attempted two passes (one of which was intercepted) in his

69 only appearance in Week 15. There s no way to be sure that Bridgewater is all the way back to his pre-injury form in 2015, but the Vikings medical and coaching staffs would know better than anyone since they ve been around him the most. Some major red jags would be raised if they don t actively try to re-sign him since they ve been heavily invested in him since they drafted in the [rst round in Bridgewater has always been a favorite of HC Mike Zimmer, which likely gives Teddy the slight lead to be the Week 1 starter in However, the Vikings need to have a strong backup plan in case he s not completely right. If they put their eggs in the Bridgewater basket, they d love to keep Case Keenum or Sam Bradford around at a reasonable price, or they could look for a strong backup option in free agency. Sam Bradford Bradford looked destined for big things after he torched the Saints on MNF in the season opener, throwing for 346 yards and 3 TDs without an INT. The excitement was short lived after yet another knee injury cut his season short. He appeared for just over a quarter in Week 5 and that would be the only other time he saw game action. Dr. James Andrews performed arthroscopic surgery on Bradford s knee, which landed him on the IR. He was activated in the playoffs, but he only served as Case Keenum s backup. The Vikings are facing quite the quandary at QB this off-season, but Bradford appears to be the most unlikely to return as the starter in 2018 because of his extensive injury history. He s also unlikely to get anything more than a two-year deal on the open market because of his durability issues, but he should get the chance to compete for a starting job no matter where he lands. Bradford has proven to be a more than capable NFL starter, but he can t be trusted to stay healthy for an extended amount of time. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Which risky QB(s) will the Vikings roll with next year? Will the Vikings hand the keys back over to Bridgewater or did they see enough from Keenum in 2017 to have him back as the starter? Where does Bradford land and does he get a shot to start in 2018? RUNNING BACKS Dalvin Cook Oh, what could have been for this talented rookie RB. Cook was well on his way to a huge rookie campaign when he tore his ACL in Week 4, which ended his season. Even without Cook for 12 games, the Vikings [nished second in RB attempts (447) and averaged 26.4 FPG as a team (6 th). Cook could ve had a monster season if he played all 16 games. As it was, Cook posted 74/354/2 rushing (4.8 YPC) and 11/90/0 receiving on 16 targets (8.2 YPR, 68.8% catch rate) while playing 63.4% of the snaps in four games. He ranked as the RB10 with FPG through the [rst four weeks of the season, posting two top-12 RB [nishes. Over 16 games, Cook s pace would ve put him at 1,416 rushing yards Kareem Hunt had a league-leading 1327 rushing yards and 360 yards receiving. Cook underwent surgery in early October, giving him about 11 months to be ready for Week 1 in He resumed jogging in the middle of January, suggesting his recovery is on schedule, which gives him a chance to be ready for training camp. He should get back to being the workhorse back, especially if the Vikings can t retain free agent Jerick McKinnon. The only real worry would be if Latavius Murray would steal goal-line work after having one of the most effective seasons in the NFL in The good news is that Cook was pretty good at the goal line in his limited chances 1 for 2 inside the 5-yard line and 2 for 5 inside the 10. We obviously need to see how Cook is moving next summer, but we d love to have him as a second-round pick if everything checks out. Jerick McKinnon McKinnon has steadily improved in his [rst four seasons, culminating in his [rst chance to test free agency this offseason. RB Dalvin Cook s ACL injury in Week 4 opened up a sizable role for him next to Latavius Murray in this back[eld, and he took full advantage with a career year. McKinnon posted 150/570/3 rushing (3.8 YPC) and 51/421/2 receiving on 68 targets (8.3 YPR, 75.0% catch rate) while playing 45.6% of the snaps in 16 games. He ranked as the RB14 in Weeks 5-16 without Cook, averaging FPG. In Weeks 5-16, McKinnon [nished as a top-12 RB four times, as a top-24 RB [ve times, and outside the top-36 [ve times. He had four huge games with 20+ FP and four duds with fewer than 7 FP over the last 12 games. He ranked. According to PFF, McKinnon forced a missed tackle every 5.0 carries (8th-best) and he was also a standout in pass protection. McKinnon appears ready to move on this off-season. He said after the season that he wants to be a feature back, and he won t get that shot in Minnesota with Cook returning from his ACL injury. McKinnon said, I want to be the guy. I don't put in all the work in the offseason to come back and be in this role. I appreciate the role. It worked out well, but I want bigger and better things for myself. We d expect some team to give him a shot at that role or at least a shot an expanded role as the top back. He should draw some interest on the open market and one team that could interest is the Giants, who hired his former OC Pat Shurmur to be their head coach. McKinnon could be drafted as an RB2 type if he lands in the right spot. Latavius Murray The Vikings gave Murray one of the more surprising contracts last off-season before drafting Dalvin Cook in the second round to be their lead back. Well, the contract worked out for at least one year because the Vikings needed The Stumbler much more than expected after Cook s season-ending ACL injury in Week 4. Murray posted 216/842/8 rushing (3.9 YPC) and 15/103/0 receiving on 17 targets (6.9 YPR, 88.2% catch rate) while playing 38.0% of the snaps in 16 games. He ranked as the RB22 in Weeks 5-16 with Cook out, averaging FPG. In Weeks 5-16, he [nished as a top-12 RB four times, as a top-24 RB six times, and outside the top- 36 three times. After a slow [rst two games with Cook out, Murray played well from Week 7 on, averaging FPG as the lead runner. He did excel in goal-line situations again, as he now has 26 TDs over his last three seasons. Murray scored eight times on 24 carries inside the 10-yard line and seven times on 14 carries inside the 5-yard line. Jerick McKinnon is expected to jy the coop in free agency,

70 leaving Murray to be an insurance policy for Cook once again in If Cook is back to 100% by the end of the summer, he s expected to step right back into his workhorse role. That would leave Murray to spell Cook, but we do worry that Latavius could be used as an annoying vulture at the goal line. Either way, Murray will go back to being a fantasy afterthought if Cook is ready to roll for Week 1. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Cook get all the way back to 100% and back to RB1 status off his ACL injury? Can McKinnon land a feature back job for a new team and become an RB2? Will Murray stay in the background with Cook back or will he vulture some goal-line work? WIDE RECEIVERS Adam Thielen Thielen not only proved that his 2016 wasn t a juke, he went above and beyond even the wildest expectations for him in The four-year, $19.2 million deal he signed last off-season looks like downright larceny for the Vikings now. They moved him into a higher volume spot out of the slot, and he still averaged 14.0 YPR for the second straight year. However, his catches/game and targets/game went up from 4.3 and 5.8 in 2016 to a whopping 5.7 and 8.8 in Thielen posted 91/1276/4 receiving on 142 targets (14.0 YPR, 64.1% catch rate) while playing 90.4% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR10 with FPG, ranking just ahead of A.J. Green and just behind Julio Jones. In Weeks 1-16, Thielen [nished as a top-12 WR six times, as a top-24 WR seven times, as a top-36 WR seven times, and outside the top-48 three times. He caught 5+ passes 13 times and had 50+ yards 11 times. He had the sixth most catches on passes that traveled 15+ yards with 20, according to PFF. Thielen is believed to have played the NFC Championship with transverse process back fractures, the same injury that Derek Carr dealt with earlier in He should be just [ne for off-season workouts. Thielen s draft status next summer should be fascinating. After going as the WR41 and overall last summer, Thielen is a lock to be a top-50 pick this summer. But just how early he ends up going will depend on if the fantasy public still looks at him as an overachieving player. If he s moved into Jordy Nelson s old territory (like he should be), he ll be off the board in the [rst three rounds. We think that Diggs has the slightly higher ceiling the next few years at just 24 years old, but Thielen and Diggs should form one of the best tandems at WR for years to come. Stefon Diggs Diggs will be remembered in Vikings lore for his improbable game-winning TD in the Divisional Round, even if their season ended anticlimactically in the NFC Championship. He did pay off his draft status WR 27, 55.4 ADP but he was a little too hit or miss at times this season. A big reason why his production was a little more sporadic was because Diggs played more on the outside this season after being the primary slot receiver in The move to the perimeter caused his catches/game to plummet from 6.5 in 2016 to 4.6 in 2017, but he did hit more big plays, seeing his YPR rise from 10.8 to Diggs posted 64/849/8 receiving on 95 targets (13.3 YPR, 67.4% catch rate) while playing 77.9% of the snaps in 14 games a groin injury forced him to miss two contests. He ended the season as the WR12 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Marvin Jones and just behind A.J. Green. In Weeks 1-16, Diggs [nished as a top-12 WR three times, as a top-24 WR [ve times, as a top-36 WR six times, and outside the top-48 six times. Diggs fell below 8 FP [ve times but he did top 17+ FP in [ve games. According to PFF, Diggs led the league by catching 64.0% of his contested targets, so he acclimated himself well as a perimeter receiver. Adam Thielen became the higher volume receiver in Minnesota this season, but Diggs still has the higher ceiling between the two going forward at just 24 years old. Diggs [gures to be a top-50 pick next summer, and he could go down as a bargain if he can avoid his nagging soft-tissue injuries and if he can get back into the 5-6 catches/game range. It s hard to believe, but Diggs still hasn t reached 1000 yards in any of his [rst three seasons. His best could still be to come in the next couple years. Laquon Treadwell Treadwell is quickly going down as a bust after yet another disappointing campaign in the books. He at least earned playing time in his second season, but he was clearly the last option in the passing game when he was on the [eld in 3-WR sets. Treadwell posted just 20/200/0 receiving on 35 targets (10.0 YPR, 57.1% catch rate) while playing 43.7% of the snaps in 16 games. While Treadwell did at least make some progress this season, it was minor at best and not enough to get excited about his 2018 prospects. We can t forget that he ll be just 23 years old next June he s six months younger than top WR draft prospect Calvin Ridley! but 2018 is setting up to be a make-or-break campaign in his development. He really needs the switch to jip on this off-season, but even if it does, it s going to be tough to steal many targets away from Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Michael Floyd Floyd s attempt to resurrect his career didn t go as planned in He started the season with a four-game suspension for his DUI arrest from December 2016 and for a positive test for alcohol during his arrest house in June He then couldn t make an impact when he was reinstated in Week 5, as he was glued to the bench behind Laquon Treadwell and Jarius Wright. Floyd posted 10/78/0 receiving on 17 targets (7.8 YPR, 58.8% catch rate) while playing 18.0% of the snaps in 11 games. He ll likely look to revive his career elsewhere in 2018, and the 28-year-old WR will likely be stuck signing a one-year deal again. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Thielen continue his impressive 2017 campaign? Can Diggs avoid a soft-tissue injury and reach his ceiling in his fourth season? Will Treadwell continue to head down the path of a bust? Will Floyd [nd a spot to get his career back on track or are his best days behind him? TIGHT ENDS

71 Kyle Rudolph Rudolph s season really took off after RB Dalvin Cook went down for the season in Week 4. He had 5+ catches and/or a TD in 10 straight games from Weeks He did have a brutal [nish to the season (1/6 receiving in Week 16 and 1/3 in Week 17) thanks in large part to a high ankle sprain that he gutted through in the [nal weeks of the season. Rudolph posted 57/532/8 receiving on 81 targets (9.3 YPR, 70.4% catch rate) while playing 81.1% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the TE9 with 9.89 FPG, ranking just ahead of Jason Witten and just behind Jordan Reed. In Weeks 1-16, Rudolph [nished as a top-12 TE seven times and outside the top-18 six times. Adam Thielen s emergence out of the slot crushed a lot of Rudolph s value from He saw his catches/game and targets/game plummet last season, as he averaged 5.2 and 8.3 in 2016 compared to just 3.6 and 5.1. His touchdown production kept him ajoat in 2017, but his 33.3 yards/game was more in line with the rest of his career. He averaged a career-best 52.5 yards/game in 2016, but he s never averaged more than 40+ yards/game in his other six seasons. We don t see Thielen of Stefon Diggs slowing down the next couple years and Cook will be back in the mix on offense next season, so Rudolph s role isn t going to grow. He ll likely be an overvalued draft pick next summer as a likely top-10 selection at the position. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Rudolph hang in the mid TE1 range once again or is a regression coming? Key Free Agents: QB Case Keenum, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Jerick McKinnon, QB Sam Bradford, WR Michael Floyd, OG Joe Berger, CB Terence Newman, K Kai Forbath, CB Marcus Sherels, DT Tom Johnson, RB Bishop Sankey, CB Tramaine Brock, C Nick Easton (RFA), OG Jeremiah Sirles (RFA). TOM BROLLEY SENIOR WRITER Tom is a senior writer for Fantasy Guru, working closely with John, Joe, and Graham to produce many of the site s top articles. Tom handles any fantasy questions that come into the Fantasy Guru Twitter account during the season. He can also be heard on The Fantasy Guru Podcast throughout the year, including during the season on the Down to the Wire podcast with Paul Kelly. Be sure to follow Tom on Twitter

72 2017/2018 Division Review/Preview: NFC West FantasyGuru published on January 23, 2018 Note: Free agency and salary data is from overthecap.com. Arizona Cardinals (8-8; 3 in NFC West) rd QUARTERBACKS No QB Under Contract for Carson Palmer has retired while the likes of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert are nothing more than career backup caliber QBs. Arizona is certainly going to be in the market for a new quarterback, likely both in the NFL Draft (they pick 15 th overall) and in free agency. Heading into the offseason, the Cards have just $10.7M in cap space (Rfth-fewest) while Palmer, HC Bruce Arians, and perhaps even future Hall-of-Famer Larry Fitzgerald are out of the desert. GM Steve Keim did an excellent job building a contender for a few years, but the Cards have real roster problems and they start at QB. Arizona has hired former Panthers DC Steve Wilks to replace the venerable Bruce Arians, but Keim will have to manage an aging roster without a starting QB. It s a real problem. The step down from Palmer to Stanton and Gabbert was apparent on the Reld last year, as Arizona averaged 356 offensive YPG in Carson Palmer s six full starts versus 292 YPG in contests with Drew Stanton or Blaine Gabbert at QB. Dating back to 2013, the Cards lost nearly 6.0 offensive points per game when Palmer was out of the lineup (based on per drive statistics). Stanton or Gabbert is not the long-term answer, and both signal-callers are 2018 unrestricted free agents. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Who will be under center for the Cardinals in 2018? Will they draft a QB in the Rrst-round or sign a free agent? Or both? RUNNING BACKS David Johnson 2017 was the Year of the Injury, and none were more devastating than David Johnson s. In Week 1, Johnson went down with a wrist injury that ultimately ended his season and many fantasy owners' seasons alike. The good news: As of mid-january, David Johnson is fully healed and will be 100 percent healthy at the start of Training Camp. The consensus number 1 fantasy pick of 2017 was lost for the season in Week 1, but he should come roaring back as a centerpiece of this offense, making him a likely mid-1st-round pick this year. We know what Johnson s ceiling is for fantasy. In 2016, Johnson turned in one of the best fantasy RB seasons ever. With total PPR points on 373 touches in 2016, David Johnson posted the singlebest season since LaDainian Tomlinson (474.3 PPR points) and Steven Jackson (419.4) crossed the 400-point threshold in In fact, if we isolate Johnson s 2016 pass catching statistics to wide receivers only, he would have Rnished 22nd in targets (120), 17th in receptions (80), and 35th in yards (879). Just 26-years-old for the 2018 league year, Johnson is one of the pure difference-making NFL RBs and will likely go at a mid-rrst round discount in 2018 fantasy draft rooms. Whomever the Cards hire to replace Bruce Arians will immediately install Johnson as the team s centerpiece once again. Johnson will certainly be one of our favorite 2018 Rrst-round targets. Kerwynn Williams, Adrian Peterson, DJ Foster, TJ Logan Much like the rest of the Cards' roster, their No. 2 and No. 3 running back job is up in the air. To start, Adrian Peterson ended his odd 2017 season on injured-reserve with a neck injury. Peterson had just two good games with the Cardinals. After being traded out of New Orleans in Week 5, Peterson essentially served as a measure of last resort after David Johnson went down. AD hit the Bucs for 26/134/2 in Week 6 and the Niners for 37/159 in Week 9, but the full scope of Peterson's season wasn't

73 exceptional. Soon-to-be 33-year-old Peterson averaged an unfathomably bad 3.4 YPC on his 148 carries under center in 2017 and will likely be a free agent shortly. Peterson has one year left on his contract, but Arizona is short on cap space and would be best served to soak up the $2.8M in cap savings if they cut Peterson pre-june 1. Peterson had a fantastic career, but it's clear he is on his last legs. Kerwynn Williams ran for 120/426/1 in place of Johnson and Peterson this past year but is a 2018 free agent, scat-back DJ Foster has just 13 career carries in two seasons, while 2017 Rfth-rounder TJ Logan missed his entire rookie season with a wrist injury, and Elijhaa Penny is an exclusive rights free agent in Yikes. The Cards 2018 running back situation is a complete mess and will be on the list of GM Steve Keim s needs this offseason. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: How big of a discount will David Johnson be in 2018 fantasy drafts? Who in the world will back him up? WIDE RECEIVERS Larry Fitzgerald Inarguably a future Hall-of-Famer, Larry Fitzgerald is spending time golrng and contemplating his NFL future. Fitzgerald will be 35-years-old in August 2018, but we are by no means counting out him coming back for one last season. The door is wide open for him to return, and he ll make a handsome $11M (likely fully guaranteed) in 2018 if he chooses to play. Fitzgerald completely balled out at 34-years-old in 2017, reeling in 109 balls for 1,156, and six scores with Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, and Blaine Gabbert at the controls. It was Fitz s third-straight year with 100-plus receptions. A full-time slot receiver at this point he ran 62% of his routes from the interior in 2017 Fitzgerald is legitimately one of the best fantasy receivers of all-time and is still churning out WR1 seasons well past his age-related prime. Incredibly, Fitzgerald has Rnished as the WR5, WR10, and WR11 in PPR PPG over the last three years. Among the 55 receivers to play at least 60 games over the age of 30 all-time, Fitzgerald is sixth in PPG (15.0) behind only Marvin Harrison (17.6), Terrell Owens (16.9), Cris Carter (16.6), Jerry Rice (15.9), and Jimmy Smith (15.8). Arizona will bring in a new QB, a new HC, and competition for targets but Fitz will remain eternally constant. If he decides to return for one more ride, Fitzgerald will be a value pick once again in the Rfth to sixth rounds of fantasy drafts. John Brown After two back-to-back disappointing and injury-riddled seasons, soon-to-be 28-year-old John Brown is an unrestricted free agent in After breaking out for 65/1003/7 in 2015, Brown has bookended that career-year with a combined 60/816/5 in 25 contests since then. Continually dealing with hamstring issues thanks in large part to sickle cell trait, John Brown has lid-lifting ability but will likely have to take a one-year prove-it deal this offseason. Since HC Bruce Arians is retiring Arians loved receivers of Brown s skill-set Brown will likely be out of the desert in Receivers with 4.34-speed don't come around often, and Brown should fetch a handful of suitors in free agency. Jaron Brown, JJ Nelson, Chad Williams If Larry Fitzgerald does not return, the Cards are going to have to completely re-build their wide receiver corps from the ground up in The other J. Brown (Jaron Brown) is also a 2018 unrestricted free agent and is now 28-years-old. After spending Rve years in the desert, Brown will have to Rnd work as a No. 4/5 receiver this offseason. Meanwhile, JJ Nelson has one year left on his rookie deal, but HC Bruce Arians departure puts Nelson s future in the desert up in the air. Arians loves small speedsters, but Nelson s 5-10, 160lbs frame may not be a Rt in the Cards new coaching staff s scheme. Nelson leads all players in yards per reception over the last three years (18.6) but has just 74 receptions in that span. Chad Williams was the Cards third-round pick at 98 overall in 2017, but he ended his rookie season with 3/33 receiving. Williams played just 98 snaps in total and appeared in six games. Williams is a 99 th percentile SPARQ athlete but was a total project player coming out of Grambling State. He's only 23-years-old and needs another full offseason to continue to develop, but Chad Williams is best viewed as a deep dynasty lier only for Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Larry Fitzgerald return? If so, who will the Cards add to play on the boundary? TIGHT ENDS Jermaine Gresham Unfortunately, Jermaine Gresham tore his Achilles in Week 17 as he enters his age-30 season in Gresham is under contract through 2020 and will play out 2018 in Arizona as the Cards would eat just over $7M in dead money if they cut Gresham outright. There is no doubt Gresham will be highly questionable for a Week 1, 2018 return. Since catching 62 balls in 2014 in his Rnal year with the Bengals, Jermaine Gresham has just been a role player in the desert averaging 2.0 receptions and 20.8 YPG as a Cardinal. Gresham is off the 2018 fantasy radar, especially since he s rehabbing an Achilles tear. Rickey Seals-Jones Standing 6-5 and weighing 243lbs with 4.70 wheels, Rickey Seals-Jones is an intriguing TE prospect for the Cardinals. Seals-Jones randomly popped on the fantasy radar for about three weeks during the 2017 season, hitting 3/54/2 and 4/72/1 in Week but then fell back down the hole of irrelevance in the Rnal Rve games of the season (5/75 on 16 targets in that span).

74 Since he only played on 25% of team snaps when active, but Seals-Jones will only have a shot at fantasy relevance in 2018 if Jermaine Gresham s Achilles rehab proves cumbersome. A former UDFA, Seals-Jones is in the Rnal year of his two-year rookie deal in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Jermaine Gresham be healthy for Week 1? Will Steve Keim address TE this offseason? Key Free Agents: WR John Brown, WR Jaron Brown, RB Kerwynn Williams, G Earl Watford, G Alex Boone, T John Wetzel, QB Blaine Gabbert, QB Drew Stanton, TE Troy Niklas, S Tyvon Branch, LB Karlos Dansby Los Angeles Rams (11-5; 1 in NFC West) QUARTERBACKS Jared Goff Last year, in this very article, we described Goff s rookie season as such: In all, it was a disastrous year. Now, we have to account for the fact that Goff simply was in a position to fail because of the poor line, he also didn t even have a functional run game to lean on (even with Todd Gurley back there). Nonetheless, Goff s rookie season was historically bad, and it s on young coach Sean McVay to get the most out of him. Well, uh, we d be lying if we said we expected Goff to play as well as he did. In his resurgent (or surgent? ) season, he played 15 games, posting 296/477 passing for 3804 yards (62.1%, 8.0 YPA), with 28 TD and 7 INT. He averaged 20.9 FPG, which ranked him 12 th among all QBs. Goff led the Rams to an NFC West title, which allowed him to sit out in Week 17 as the Rams rested starters. He Rnished as a top-12 QB in six of his 15 starts, including as the #1 overall QB in two separate weeks. While he was a little more inconsistent for fantasy than you might remember, With an improved OL and a brilliant HC hire, Jared Goff erased a disastrous Rrst season and led a huge turnaround for the Rams. he rarely did poorly enough to tank your week he never Rnished lower than QB25. Goff threw multiple INTs in just one game this season, and threw multiple TDs in nine games. He also scored a rushing TD, though he gained just 28/51/1 on the ground, so we wouldn t anticipate that becoming a big part of his game moving forward. But Goff executed McVay s scheme extremely well. The Rams used an improved offensive line and elite run game to build a spread-out passing game that relied heavily on play action. Goff s sense of timing and rhythm was evident almost all year, and while it is still possible to get him rattled when you get him off his spot, McVay did a brilliant job putting him in a position to make plays. With that, Goff s above-average arm and strong accuracy attribute were on display. While the scheme may have helped Goff s numbers look a bit better than he played, what we have now is a guy who looked like a potential huge bust as a rookie who is now, at the very least, a solid NFL starting QB. For a one-year turnaround, that s remarkable work by both McVay and Goff. st Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Goff continue to progress in 2018 to becoming a reliable, high-end fantasy starter? Or will the situation around him regress a bit, causing him to slip up? RUNNING BACKS Todd Gurley Gurley s 2016 season his Rnal under Jeff Fisher was a monumental fantasy bust. His 2017 season his Rrst under Sean McVay was a throwback to the old-school days of fantasy, when volume RBs ruled the day. Playing in 15 games (sitting out Week 17 after the Rams had already clinched the NFC West), Gurley posted 279/1305/13 rushing (4.68 YPC) and an insane 64/788/6 receiving on 87 targets (73.6% catch rate, YPR). He played 80% of the Rams offensive snaps when active, and Rnished #1 among RBs EASILY with FPG, nearly 3.0 FPG higher than #2 Le Veon Bell. His total FP as a receiver were more than all but 25 WRs scored in total (right behind teammate Cooper Kupp s FP), while his FP as a runner alone were more than all but 11 RBs scored total. So he was, quite literally, a #1 RB combined with a #3 WR for fantasy. In 15 games, Gurley Rnished as a top-12 RB 12 times. That included Rnishing as the #1 overall RB three times, most notably in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 15 and 16, the typical fantasy playoff weeks (scoring 45 FP against Seattle in Week 15, then 49.6 against the Titans in Week 16). Gurley ran for 100 yards in six different games, after doing so zero times in He had 100 or more yards from scrimmage in 12 games, after doing so just once in And only once all season did Gurley fail to either post 100 yards from scrimmage or a TD (against Seattle in Week 5). It was an all-time great fantasy campaign from perhaps the league s most talented RB. All Gurley needed was an improved offensive line and a playcaller with a brain to unlock his monstrous potential. He s likely to be the favorite as the #1 overall fantasy pick in 2018, and for damn good reason.

75 Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Gurley be the consensus #1 overall pick in 2018? Will the Rams Rnd a back to rotate with Gurley, or will they turn him into a Le Veon Bell type of volume workhorse? WIDE RECEIVERS Robert Woods Woods contract signed with the Rams prior to the 2017 season was one of the more heavily criticized free agent contracts of last year it was a Rve-year deal worth up to $39 million with $15 million guaranteed for a guy who had never even reached 700 receiving yards in any of his Rrst four NFL seasons. But it s pretty obvious GM Les Snead and coach Sean McVay knew what they were doing. In 12 games (he missed three with a shoulder injury and another when the Ram starters rested), Woods posted 56/781/5 receiving on 85 targets (65.9% catch rate, YPR). He averaged FPG, which ranked him 17 th among all WRs. Woods averaged 65.1 receiving YPG, which was 17.9 YPG higher than 2016 in Buffalo, his previous career high. That pace would have put him over 1000 yards if he played 16 games, and his consistency as a fantasy option was perhaps the most surprising element of his season. Woods Rnished as a top-24 WR option in six of his 12 games, and as a top-36 WR in two more. He topped 100 yards receiving in two games during the regular season, and also posted 9/142 on 14 targets in the postseason against Atlanta (Woods had three 100-yard games in his four years in Buffalo combined). A movable chess piece who was effective as the frontside Z in McVay s diverse offense, Woods will enter 2018 as a fantasy target on the WR2/3 fringes in the early-mid rounds, and a strong one at that. Sammy Watkins Acquired from the Bills in a shocking blockbuster trade in August (for CB EJ Gaines and a 2018 second-round pick), Watkins had a weird season. That s because he was as inconsistent and unproductive as we feared he would be, despite the fact that the Ram offense overall was way better than could have been reasonably expected. In 15 games (sitting out Week 17 for rest), Watkins posted 39/593/8 receiving on 70 targets (55.7%, YPR). He averaged 9.75 FPG to rank 49 th among WRs on the season. In those 15 games, Watkins Rnished as a top-12 WR just once, a top-24 WR just four times, and a top-36 WR seven times. He Rnished outside the top 50 at WR six times. That s because almost all of his fantasy damage came on TDs despite Sammy ranking 63 rd among WRs in receptions and 51 st in receiving yardage, his 8 TD tied him for 7 th at the position. He was especially dangerous on quick slants in goalline situations, where he used his size to bully opposing DBs. He had issues with drops, but it s worth noting our guy Greg Cosell said during the season that he was limited largely by the fact that he operated as the X-iso receiver to the backside of the Rams passing concepts on a sizeable percentage of his snaps. While QB Jared Goff played very well in his Rrst season in McVay s offense, Goff didn t progress to the backside of his reads, rendering Watkins irrelevant a lot of the time. It s not a decoy role Pierre Garcon made a living off those backside digs when he played in Washington it just was one that Goff didn t take advantage of. Watkins is entering free agency, but he has declared his willingness to re-sign with the Rams, and reports suggest the Rams are willing to use the franchise tag on him. Given they gave up a premium pick for him, that makes sense. But will he be a more involved part of the offense if he does return? Cooper Kupp Kupp was selected in the third round of April s draft with the reputation that he could roll out of bed and play the slot in the NFL, which was pretty much required since he was an old rookie this year he turned 24 prior to his Rrst NFL training camp. But the good news is the assessments of him were true. As the Rams primary slot receiver in 2017, he posted 62/869/5 receiving on 94 targets (66.0%, YPR). He averaged FPG, tying him with Alshon Jeffery for 27 th among WRs. Kupp has some issues with drops (he notably dropped a go-ahead TD against the Seahawks in Week 5), but ultimately was a reliable slot option for Jared Goff. A master route runner, Kupp saw 46 targets in the slot, according to ProFootballFocus, which ranked him 19 th in the NFL. But his 2.02 yards per route run out of the slot were 4 th in the NFL, solidifying him as already one of the most dangerous slot receivers in the NFL as a rookie. In 15 games, Kupp Rnished as a top-36 WR seven times, including as a top-14 WR six times. Three more times he Rnished as WR40 through WR37, so he was a good bet to not kill you as a WR3, and he actually hit his ceiling as a legitimate high-end WR2/low-end WR1 on a good number of occasions. Presuming the continued development of Goff, Kupp should be a very appealing mid-round WR in fantasy drafts in August. Josh Reynolds A tall, lanky rookie out of Texas A&M who performed well at the NFL Combine, Reynolds was selected in the fourth round in April s draft. He played in 16 games as a rookie, mostly on special teams, posting 11/104/1 receiving on 24 targets. He had more receiving yards than Pharoh Cooper, and may have the supporting of the coaching staff over him, so he s someone worth monitoring this off-season, especially if the Rams opt not to bring back Sammy Watkins. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Rams bring back Watkins? If so, can he come through as a consistent fantasy option? Where will Woods and Kupp be drafted after their impressive 2017 campaigns? TIGHT ENDS Gerald Everett The Rams obviously have high hopes for the future with Everett, a freak athlete out of South Alabama who was the 44th overall pick in April s NFL Draft. In 16 games, playing a part-time role, Everett posted 16/244/2 receiving on 32 targets (50%, YPR). He averaged 3.36 FPG, which ranked him 49 th among TEs. He Rnished as the TE11 in his second career game (Week 2), but never again

76 topped the top-12 line. He was never worth having on a fantasy roster given he split time with Tyler Higbee and played just over a quarter of the Rams offensive snaps (28.3%), but his incredible movement ability was evident, and he remains a guy that dynasty players should keep an eye on. Tyler Higbee Higbee played far more snaps than rookie TE Gerald Everett in 2017, but barely outproduced him. In 16 games, he posted 25/295/1 receiving on 45 targets (55.6%, YPR). He averaged 3.78 FPG, which was good enough to rank him 46 th among TEs (Everett was #49). But Higbee also played 69.1% of the Rams offensive snaps, over double what Everett played (28.3%). Like Everett, Higbee had one Rnish as a top-12 fantasy TE (TE11 against the Seahawks in Week 5), but other than that, was not worth having on a fantasy roster. The fact that Everett showed more explosive ability than Higbee should be a concern for Higbee s dynasty value, though it s clear the Rams viewed him as the better blocker. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Everett overtake Higbee and become a fantasy asset? Or will the Rams continue to rotate their TEs? Key Free Agents: WR Sammy Watkins, CB Trumaine Johnson, OLB Connor Barwin, DL Dominique Easley, S Lamarcus Joyner, CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, RB Lance Dunbar, S Cody Davis, C John Sullivan, TE Derek Carrier, DT Tyrunn Walker, LS Jake McQuaide, LT Cornelius Lucas, LB Matt Longacre (RFA), CB Troy Hill (ERFA), RB Malcolm Brown (ERFA). San Francisco 49ers (6-10; 4 in NFC West) QUARTERBACKS Garoppolo joined the team mid-season but was responsible for 5 of their 6 wins, and he could be a popular fantasy pick next season. Jimmy Garoppolo While it s certainly an interesting story overall, we re less concerned with how and why Garoppolo is now a 49er than we are the fact that he is one. After being dealt to the Niners from the Patriots for a 2018 second-round pick at the trade deadline, Garoppolo made Rve starts with his new team. He posted 120/178 passing for 1560 yards with 7 TD against 5 INT. He also added 15/11/1 rushing to Rnish with FPG, ranking him 20th among QBs. However, if we remove Garoppolo s Week 12 appearance in relief of an injured CJ Beathard, he averaged FPG, which ranked him 11 th over his Rve starts and would have been good enough for the same ranking over the full season. Garoppolo has now started seven games total in the NFL, and has won all of them. In going 5-0 with the Niners, he made the cost to acquire him cheaper, while simultaneously making the argument he should have been traded for more. In Garoppolo s Rrst 49ers start in Week 13, he Rnished as the QB24. He then improved to QB16 in Week 14, QB11 in Week 15, QB4 in Week 16, before closing out the season as QB8 in Week 17. And remember, he did this all with a mediocre-at-best offensive line, an inconsistent run game, and a passing game that had Marquise Goodwin and little else at his disposal. A plus athlete with a quick release and strong arm, Garoppolo has been compared to his fellow Eastern Illinois alum Tony Romo, and also Washington QB Kirk Cousins (reportedly a previous target of Kyle Shanahan prior to the Garoppolo trade). We d argue he s more naturally gifted than Cousins, though also potentially less of an improviser than Romo. All considered, Garoppolo has shown the ability to be a good NFL starter, and potentially a very good one, in his half-season s worth of starts. The fact that he joined the 49ers midseason and led them to Rve of their six victories on the season is remarkable, and it is going to make them a chic playoff pick for It will also make Garoppolo a chic fantasy pick, and come August, we wouldn t be shocked to see him going off the board as one of the top 10 fantasy QBs in ADP. If the Niners build up the team around him, it ll be hard to argue against that given he s already had success in Shanahan s awesome scheme. The future looks bright for the Niners, presuming something crazy doesn t happen Jimmy G is entering free agency, but he s almost 100% guaranteed to get either the franchise tag or a big-bucks extension. th CJ Beathard The 49ers made a surprising selection of Beathard in the third round of April s NFL Draft, which indicated coach Kyle Shanahan viewed him far better than we did as a prospect we didn t even rank him among our top 10 pre-draft QB prospects, mostly because we thought he lacked an NFL arm and he didn t produce in college. On one hand, we were proven right the Niners swung a midseason trade for their obvious QB of the future despite Beathard having started several games. On the other, Beathard outperformed our expectations for him. In seven games (Rve starts), Beathard posted 123/224 passing for 1430 yards (54.9%, 6.4 YPA). He threw 4 TD

77 against 6 INT while adding 26/136/3 rushing and Rnished with FPG, ranking him 29 th among QBs. Beathard initially took over for an ineffective Brian Hoyer in Week 6, and then proceeded to start Rve games prior to Jimmy Garoppolo s ascension to the starting job (brought on by Beathard suffering knee and hip injuries in Week 12). Beathard ranked as a top-12 QB once as QB4 in Week 10 against the Giants, the Niners only win without Jimmy G starting and earned the respect of his teammates by taking an absolute beating behind a decimated offensive line and with few weapons in the passing game. While Beathard s arm strength limitations were obvious, he exhibited ridiculous toughness, plus mobility, and the understanding of Shanahan s system. At least, he is a good backup for Jimmy G. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: We expect Garoppolo back (obviously), but will it be on the franchise tag or a long-term extension? Can Garoppolo parlay his late-season success into a full season of fantasy relevance? RUNNING BACKS Carlos Hyde In his fourth year in the NFL, potentially his last with the 49ers, Hyde did something he had never done before he stayed healthy for all 16 games. Of course, healthy is relative, as he dealt with a hip injury early in the season and potentially with pain for longer. But he played in all 16 games, posting 240/938/8 rushing (3.91 YPC) and 59/350/0 on 88 targets (67.0% catch rate, 5.93 YPR) to Rnish at FPG, good for 11 th among RBs with Rve or more appearances. Hyde Rnished as a top-12 fantasy RB Rve times and as a top-24 RB seven more times, so he was actually pretty consistent for fantasy only once all season did he Rnish outside the top 50 at the RB position, so he was an asset to fantasy lineups. But despite the fantasy success, in large part on a high reception total, the Niner coaches seemed to show waning trust in him at points throughout the season. Hyde played 70.1% of the 49ers offensive snaps on the year, a huge share, but several 49er beat writers wonder if he is in the club s future plans. The Niners got four overall good years out of Hyde, but he s entering free agency, and his history of dings and dents may work against him, as will the fact that the Kyle Shanahan/John Lynch regime inherited him. The Niners are projected to have over $100 million in cap space this off-season, so they have some room for luxury signings, but will that include Hyde? Matt Breida This past off-season, the Niners spent a fourth-round pick on Joe Williams, signed FB Kyle Juszczyk to a big contract, and plucked Rfth-round rookie Jeremy McNichols off waivers when he fell out of favor in Tampa Bay. But none of those guys were the primary change-of-pace for starting RB Carlos Hyde. Instead, it was UDFA Breida, an athletic freak from Georgia Southern. In 16 games, Breida posted 105/465/2 rushing (4.43 YPC) and 21/180/1 receiving on 36 targets (58.3% catch rate, 8.57 YPR). He averaged 6.47 FPG to rank 66 th among RBs, while playing 27.7% of the 49ers offensive snaps. Breida s size (5 10, 190 pounds) likely relegates him to rotational work in the future, but to be fair, those types of guys have had fantasy success in the right role. Breida Rnished as a top-24 RB in four of his 16 games as a rookie, though he also ranked out of the top 50 in nine of those games. For the most part, he was little more than a handcuff for fantasy purposes, and Hyde didn t miss any games in But Hyde is a free agent, and Breida certainly impressed enough as a rookie to earn a role in 2018, whether or not the 49ers rebuild their backreld. It s also worth noting that while Breida touched the ball 10 or more times in just seven games as a rookie, four of those games came in Jimmy Garoppolo s Rve starts. Were the Niners getting a good look at the future? Breida will be a very intriguing player on whom to follow off-season reports. Kyle Juszczyk Juice signed a huge contract for a fullback prior to the 2017 season with the Niners four years, $21 million, the largest ever given to his position. It indicated the Niners had plans for him, and overall, he was an effective receiver for them. In 14 games (missing two with a back injury midway through the year, the Rrst two games he s missed of his career), he posted 7/31/0 rushing and 33/315/1 receiving on 42 targets (78.6%, 9.15 YPR). At 5.26 FPG, he ranked 80 th among RBs. But as for fantasy value? Juice had one Rnish as a top-24 RB RB23 in Week 16 and just two more as a top-36 RB. He Rnished outside the top 50 in nine of his 14 games. We thought he may have more value in PPR leagues, but he was mostly the same guy he was in Baltimore a good receiver who catches enough balls to be a fantasy nuisance more so than a fantasy asset on his own. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the 49ers bring back Hyde? If not, do they view Breida as a suitable replacement? Will two rookies who didn t play in 2017 Joe Williams and Jeremy McNichols get a chance to make an impact? WIDE RECEIVERS Marquise Goodwin One of the better stories of the NFL season was that of Goodwin, a former Olympic track athlete who had struggled to Rnd his footing in the NFL, until Goodwin signed a two-year contract with the Niners in March, and turned out to be one of the off-season s bigger bargains. Playing in all 16 games for the Rrst time in his career, Goodwin posted 56/962/2 on 105 targets (53.3%, YPR). His FPG ranked him 42 nd among WRs, one spot below Ted Ginn. Goodwin s season, unfortunately, ended on a sour note he left Week 17 with a concussion suffered on a brutal hit from Ram DB Blake Countess but it shouldn t dampen what he accomplished. In four seasons with the Bills combined, Goodwin had just 49/780/6 on 111 targets, while playing 39 of a possible 64 games. Goodwin also Rnished as a top-24 WR in six of his 16 games, and as a top-40 WR in two more, so he had a legitimate ceiling of a WR2, stepping up huge for the Niners after presumed #1 WR Pierre Garcon went down. Meanwhile, he had 29/384/1 on 43 targets in new QB Jimmy Garoppolo s Rve starts, accounting for over half of his catches on the season. The burner is a deep threat above all, but

78 QUARTERBACKS Russell Wilson Wilson arguably carried his team more than any other player this season. He played a hand in 97.4% of Seahawks offensive touchdowns in 2017 J.D. McKissic was the only Seahawk to account for an offensive TD on his own. The Seahawks closed the season with 89.5% of their offensive TDs coming via the pass, the highest rate of the past decade (per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld). Wilson completed 339/553 passes for 3983 yards (61.3%, 7.2 YPA), 34 TDs (league high), and 11 INTs and he added 95/586/3 rushing in 16 games. He ended the year as the QB2 with FPG, Rnishing just behind Deshaun Watson and just ahead of Carson Wentz so he was the top QB among those who Rnished the season. In Weeks 1-16, he Rnished as a top-12 QB 10 times and Rnished just out of the top-20 twice. He ranked as the QB9 or better in nine straight games in Weeks 7-14, averaging a whopping FPG in that span. He banged out nine blow-up games with 25+ FP and he fell below 16 four times. Wilson had a remarkable season, but it looks like the organization thought Wilson had too much control of this backyard-football offense. They Rred all of their primary offensive coaches after the season, but they didn t exactly make an inspiring hire by bringing in Brian Schottenheimer as OC. He s overseen just ONE top- he also proved he can be effective as a moveable chess piece under the tutelage of a creative coach like Kyle Shanahan. He s had concussion issues, which absolutely scare us, but he will be a fun player to watch in 2018 as he has certainly established himself as one of the NFL s more dangerous receivers down the Reld. Pierre Garcon The Niners prized free-agent acquisition of the 2017 off-season, Garcon played in just eight games before a neck injury robbed him of the second half of his Rrst season with San Francisco. In his eight games, Garcon managed 40 catches for 500 yards and 0 TDs on 67 targets (59.7%, 12.5 YPR). Despite not scoring a TD, Garcon was averaging FPG, good enough to rank him 35th among WRs for the full season. The good news is that Garcon s neck injury was not serious enough to put his off-season at risk. That s especially good news, considering most of Garcon s play in 2017 was with the worst of the three starting QBs the 49ers employed Brian Hoyer. Garcon ranked as a top-36 WR in Rve of his eight games, three of those Rve times as a top-24 WR. But his upside with Jimmy Garoppolo is potentially huge, and we re excited to see if we can get this PPR beast at a potential discount coming off his injury with a major upgrade at QB. Trent Taylor A rookie Rfth-round pick out of Stanford, Taylor operated as the 49ers primary slot receiver in In 15 games, missing one with a rib injury, Taylor posted 43/430/2 receiving on 60 targets (71.7%, 10.0 YPR). He averaged 6.53 FPG to rank 77 th among WRs. For the most part, Taylor was not a fantasy asset, ranking as a top-36 WR just three times in 15 games, and outside the top 50 at the position eight times. But two of those three games as a top-36 fantasy WR came in Jimmy Garoppolo s Rve starts. At 5 8 and 178 pounds, Taylor is one of the NFL s smallest players, so he doesn t prorle as much more than a #3 WR at the NFL level, but he s a slippery route runner who showed some positives when Garoppolo entered the lineup. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Goodwin replicate his career year? Will Garcon return healthy as the PPR monster we ve come to know him as? Will Taylor progress into a useful fantasy slot receiver, like a Cooper Kupp, or will he end up more like a Cole Beasley nuisance type? TIGHT ENDS George Kittle One of the best athletes of the entire 2017 TE draft class (he ran a yard dash at 247 pounds), Kittle is going to be a popular choice for fantasy blowup potential in The Rfth-round rookie out of Iowa impressed in his NFL debut season, posting 43/515/2 receiving on 63 targets (68.3%, YPR) in 15 games. Kittle s 7.10 FPG ranked him 22 nd at the position. He played in 15 games, missing one with an ankle injury. In those 15 games, Kittle ranked in the top-12 at the TE position just three times, and in the top-24 at the position four more. But three of those seven games as a top-24 TE came in Jimmy Garoppolo s Rve starts to end the season, and in the Rnal three in a row. Kittle s Rrst career 100-yard game came in Week 17 against the Rams, and it put a cap on a rookie season of 515 yards. While that s obviously not a ton in a vacuum, Kittle is one of only 15 rookie TEs since 1990 to have 500 or more receiving yards. And only one Tim Wright for the 2013 Bucs, who was undrafted was drafted lower than Kittle. In other words, the Niners seem to have gotten a phenomenal value pick, and fantasy players would be right to be very excited to draft Kittle in 2018, especially at a position that was so weak in Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Kittle become a consistent fantasy starter after an impressive rookie campaign? Key Free Agents: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Carlos Hyde, S Eric Reid, C Daniel Kilgore, DL Tank Carradine, OT Garry Gilliam, G Brandon Fusco, CB Leon Hall, CB Dontae Johnson, WR Louis Murphy, LB Brock Coyle, DT Chris Jones, DT Leger Douzable, CB Asa Jackson, TE Logan Paulsen, S Antone Exum, DE Cassius Marsh, DE Aaron Lynch. nd Seattle Seahawks (9-7, 2 in NFC West)

79 15 offense in nine seasons between the Jets ( ) and Rams ( ). We also have to worry about Wilson s cast of receivers for next season, with both TE Jimmy Graham and WR Paul Richardson candidates to leave during free agency. The Seahawks also can t get much worse at running the ball behind their putrid offensive line, so we have to think their running game will be improved. Between a shaky OC, a potentially weakened receiving corps, and a potentially improved running game, Wilson is looking like a prime candidate to regress after his historic season. Wilson was the QB5 with an ADP of 65.6 last summer, and he ll be a bit of a reach if he goes in the top 60 next summer, as is expected to happen. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Can Wilson remain an elite fantasy QB and Rght off a potential regression? RUNNING BACKS Chris Carson Carson, a seventh-round pick, made the biggest impact on the Seattle backreld despite playing just four games. That s how big of a disaster this Seattle backreld was all season long behind this dreadful offensive line. We tabbed Carson as a Mr. Relevant player in the preseason, and he quickly became their early-down back by Week 2 before he suffered a broken ankle in Week 4, which ended his season. Carson posted 49/208/0 rushing (4.2 YPC) and 7/59/1 receiving on 8 targets (8.4 YPR, 87.5% catch rate) for 9.93 FPG while playing 52.6% of the snaps in four games. Carson had already resumed running by December, and HC Pete Carroll said Carson may have been able to return if Seattle had made the playoffs. Carson should be ready for all off-season activities, and he ll be the favorite to lead this backreld if the Seahawks don t add a RB through free agency or the draft. Carson has some breakout potential if he earns the lead-runner role and if the Seahawks can actually upgrade this O-line this off-season. C.J. Prosise We love Prosise s dynamic receiving ability out of the backreld, but his career is quickly being lost to injuries. He played in just Rve games this season because of chronic issues to both ankles, this after he played just six games as a rookie because of wrist and shoulder injuries. Prosise posted just 11/23/0 rushing (2.1 YPC) and 6/87/0 receiving on 11 targets (14.5 YPR, 54.5% catch rate) while playing 21.5% of the snaps in Rve games. We re still very intrigued by Prosise s upside, and we ll be keeping an eye on Prosise next August and early in the season. If he s looking healthy and playing well in the preseason, there s a chance he could sneak into Mr. Relevant territory, but he won t be worth a huge investment with his injury history. Mike Davis The Seahawks dug deep into their practice squad for Davis, and he actually brought some stability to the early-down role at the end of the season. He certainly wasn t spectacular, but he was an improvement over Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy as the starter in the Rnal Rve games of the season behind an awful Seattle O-line. Davis posted 68/240/0 rushing (3.5 YPC) and 15/131/0 receiving on 18 targets (8.7 YPR, 83.3% catch rate) for 8.68 FPG while playing 44.5% of the snaps in six games. Davis has some pedigree as a former fourth-round pick by the 49ers in 2015, and he ll be given a crack to make this team out of training camp. However, if he heads into the 2018 regular season as the starter, this Seahawks backreld will be in some major trouble again. Thomas Rawls Rawls hasn t been the same player since his strong rookie season in 2015, which was ended by a devastating broken ankle injury. He clearly lacked the same explosiveness in 2016, and a fractured Rbula slowed him down as well. In 2017, Chris Carson and Eddie Lacy passed him early in the season before Mike Davis and J.D.McKissic did it late in the year. Rawls posted just 28/157/0 rushing (2.7 YPC) and 9/94/0 receiving on 13 targets (10.4 YPR, 69.2% catch rate) while playing 24.7% of the snaps in 12 games. The Seahawks will likely keep Rawls around as a restricted free agent, but he ll be in a battle for a 53-man roster spot. J.D. McKissic McKissic came into the season as a virtual unknown, but he ended up playing an important role as the passing back in this offense with C.J. Prosise s laundry list of injuries growing this season. McKissic posted 46/187/1 rushing (4.1 YPR) and 34/266/2 receiving on 46 targets (7.8 YPR, 73.9% catch rate) while playing 35.0% of the snaps in 13 games. Amazingly, he accounted for the only rushing TD by a Seahawks RB this season! McKissic brought some stability to the backreld in 2017, but he s not a special player. It would be a bad sign for this Seahawks backreld if he s playing a prominent role again in Eddie Lacy It s fair to wonder if Lacy s once promising career is now all but over. He no longer has the ability to make many defenders miss, which turned out to be a bad combination behind one of the league s worst O-lines. Lacy posted 69/179/0 rushing (2.6 YPR) and 6/47/0 receiving on 6 targets (7.8 YPR, 100% catch rate) while playing 22.7% of the snaps in nine games. The Seahawks had seen enough of him by the end of the season, making him a healthy scratch for the Rnal four games. He won t back in Seattle in 2018, and he won t have a market in free agency. He ll likely have to settle for being a camp body next August, who will need to lose signircant weight and gain some quickness to have any chance of making a 53-man roster. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will the Seahawks give Carson a chance to be lead back after a promising small-sample size in 2017? Can Prosise stay healthy for more than two seconds to make an impact in this offense? Did Davis earn a shot for a longer look in this backreld? Will Rawls ever regain his rookie season form? Have we seen the last of Lacy? WIDE RECEIVERS

80 Doug Baldwin Baldwin had another strong season, but it was slightly underwhelming considering his ADP of 22.8, which made him the WR11 off the board. He fell just short of 1000 yards for the third straight season, but he Rnished with 19 fewer catches (94 to 75), which hurt him the most. Baldwin posted 75/991/8 receiving on 116 targets (13.2 YPR, 64.7% catch rate) while playing 78.0% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR15 with FPG, ranking just ahead of Robert Woods and just behind Golden Tate. In Weeks 1-16, Baldwin Rnished as a top-12 WR three times, as a top-24 WR seven times, as a top-36 WR nine times, and outside the top-48 three times. Baldwin saw a whopping 33 red-zone targets (1.03 RZ targets/game) in , and he scored 21 total times. He still scored 8 times last season despite seeing just 8 RZ targets (.50 RZ targets/game) The good news is that the league leader in red-zone targets Jimmy Graham with 26 is likely leaving town in free agency, and Baldwin would be a clear benerciary. Seattle s #2 WR Paul Richardson could also be leaving via free agency if the Seahawks decide to devote their Rnancial resources elsewhere (O-line, please!). Baldwin could fall a round or two bit compared to his 2017 ADP, but all signs point toward a better 2018 as a low-end WR1. His play hasn t fallen off at all, and he s still tough as nails in contested-catch situations entering his 29-year-old season. He could go down as a major bargain if he falls to the middle of the third round or later next summer. Paul Richardson Richardson didn t completely breakout in his fourth season, but he at least stayed healthy enough to get regular playing time. We're hoping that Baldwin falls a round or 2 next year, as he had a productive 2017 but was a bit underwhelming considering his high ADP. Richardson, the #45 overall pick in 2014, passed Tyler Lockett on the depth chart and got to show off his immense talent as a deep threat. Richardson posted 44/703/6 receiving on 80 targets (16.0 YPR, 55.0% catch rate) while playing 74.8% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR52 with 9.39 FPG, ranking just ahead of Danny Amendola and just behind Emmanuel Sanders. In Weeks 1-16, Richardson Rnished as a top-12 WR once, as a top-24 WR three times, as a top-36 WR Rve times, and outside the top-48 Rve times. Richardson is expected to be seeking around $6-7 million per year as a free agent for the Rrst time. The Seahawks will likely be choosing between Richardson and Lockett, who will hit free agency in The Seahawks drafted Amara Darboh in the third-round to be ready to step into a more prominent role once Richardson and/or Lockett leaves. Richardson could have a sneaky big market like his high school teammate Robert Woods had last off-season who signed a Rve-year, $34 million contract with the Rams. Tyler Lockett Lockett didn t seem to be hindered at all by the catastrophic leg injury he suffered at the end of However, the injury opened the door for Paul Richardson late in 2016 and he took full advantage, and he carried that momentum into 2017, staying ahead of Lockett on the depth chart. Lockett posted 45/55/2 receiving on 71 targets (12.3 YPR, 63.4% catch rate) while playing 63.2% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the WR68 with 7.39 FPG, ranking just ahead of Corey Coleman, and just behind Josh Doctson. In Weeks 1-16, Lockett Rnished as a top-12 WR once, as a top-24 WR twice, as a top-36 WR Rve times, and outside the top-48 eight times. The Seahawks will likely be choosing between Richardson, a 2018 free agent, and Lockett, who will hit free agency in The Seahawks drafted Amara Darboh in the third-round to be ready to step into a more prominent role once Richardson and/or Lockett leaves. If the Seahawks decide to upgrade their offensive line instead of paying for Richardson, Lockett would be elevated to the #2 WR spot, likely returning him to fantasy relevance. Fantasy questions to answer in 2018: Will Baldwin get back to low-end WR1 status if the Seahawks lose some of their top receivers in free agency? Will the Seahawks pay up to keep Richardson around or let him walk? Can Lockett get back to fantasy relevance if Richardson leaves town? TIGHT ENDS Jimmy Graham Graham had a truly bizarre 2017, which was a Rtting ending to a bizarre three-year stay in Seattle. He essentially operated as their de facto goal-line back with the Seahawks RBs scoring just ONE rushing TD. He led the entire NFL in red-zone targets (26) and targets inside the 10-yard line (16). Graham remarkably converted half of his targets inside the 10-yard line into TDs (8), and he led all TEs with 10 TDs overall. He scored his most TDs since his Rnal season in New Orleans in 2014, but he also had his fewest receiving yards (520) since his rookie campaign in Graham posted 57/520/10 receiving on 96 targets (9.1 YPR, 59.4% catch rate) while playing 65.7% of the snaps in 16 games. He ended the season as the TE7 with FPG, ranking just behind Delanie Walker and just ahead of Jordan Reed. He actually stacked 10 top-12 TE performances in a row from Weeks 3-13, but he Rnished with fewer than 10 yards receiving in all Rve of his other performances during Weeks We told you he had a bizarre season (you probably already known if you owned him). We thought Graham would look healthier a full two years removed from his torn patellar injury suffered in