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1 By arren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com

2 Minnesota Vikings (-9) 1 Personnel - Key Players ost OG Charlie Johnson QB Christian Ponder DE Corey ootton R Greg Jennings FB Jerome Felton QB Matt Cassel OT J'Marcus ebb - Key Free Agents Gained OB Casey Matthews S Taylor Mays CB Terence Newman R Mike allace RB DuJuan Harris - Draft Positions Needed Offensive ine Cornerback inebacker - Drafted Players CB Trae aynes R1, Michigan St. IB Eric Kendricks R2, UCA DE Danielle Hunter R, SU OT T.J. Clemmings R4, Pittsburgh R Stefon Diggs R5, Maryland TE MyCole Pruitt R5, Southern Illinois DE B.J. Dubose R, ouisville OT Tyrus Thompson R, Oklahoma OB Edmond Robinson R, Newberry OT Austin Shepherd R, Alabama -Draft Grade: 4 rd (.5/4.00) - Biggest Post-Draft Issue: Offensive ine (in particular, G) Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Advanced Analytics - Strengths using Advanced Analytics 4th in Offensive rush efficiency th in Special teams efficiency th in Offensive rd down efficiency th in Defensive pass rush efficiency TAKEAAY: The Vikings were all AP in 1, but without him last season, somehow the Vikings still had a strong run game when needed. Bridgewater leading them to top in rd down efficiency as a rookie was strong. - eaknesses using Advanced Analytics 29th in Offensive pass efficiency 2th in Offensive yds/point 2th in Offensive pass block efficiency 2th in Offensive EDSR 2th in Defensive rush efficiency 25th in Offensive yds/pass th in Overall efficiency 2rd in Offensive 0 & In TD % 2rd in Defensive efficiency TAKEAAY: A year after this section was filled with defensive weaknesses, Mike Zimmer had the unit playing much better. The offense clearly needs to take the next step in 15, but may be ready. - Strength of Schedule The Vikings offense went against the 12 th rated defenses. The Vikings defense faced the 19 th rated opponent's offenses. TAKEAAY: The Vikings played a very even schedule in. As such, their metrics are very true and not based on hard or lackluster competition. Results - Play Trends The Vikings passed the ball 58% of all offensive plays, th most in the NF and same as 1. In 1 score games, they passed on just 5%, running it th most often. ate in the year, with confidence in Bridgewater, they passed it 81% of the time when losing, most of any team. The Vikings were terrible on 1 st and passes, gaining just 5.8 ypa (2 th ). They were tremendous on 2 nd and short runs compared to 2 nd and short passes: they picked up 1 st downs on runs 8% of the time but passes resulted in just 25% first downs. That was the 2 nd largest disparity between run and pass, with their pass ranking 0 th in the league. Clearly, they should have run more often, but ran the th most often. TAKEAAY: The Vikings play calling was miserable on their was tremendous on run plays needing short yardage, the 4 th best in the NF. But they need to run more often, there was NO need to have Bridgewater passing on 2 nd and short as often as he did. - Interesting ATS/Total results from The Vikings trailed at half in games, losing of them. The Vikings went 4-5 in one score games. The Vikings were one of the best dogs in the NF last year, going - ATS as dogs of over points. The Vikings were 5- ATS both home and away. Zimmer s improved defense move the Vikings from 11- to the over in 1 to - to the under in. Future - atch For: B Gerald Hodges Rookie surprise: OT T.J. Clemmings - Toughest Challenge: Their game stretch of and SEA is the 4 th most difficult game stretch in the NF for any team all season. A road trip to Denver week 4 won t be easy either, but they have a bye week immediately after. - Pressure is on: Adrian Peterson he missed last season and thus, the pressure fell directly to Teddy Bridgewater as a rookie. He performed great, all things considered. But if Peterson is playing at his best, it will take pressure off of Bridgewater and the passing game. That, in turn, will help the defense as well, with more ability to control the football via the ground and milk the clock. Peterson needs to atone for his absence with a dominant year to give the Vikings hope to advance past the ions and challenge the Packers for the title. If they can stay healthy, the tandem of Adrian Peterson, Mike allace and Kyle Rudolph should be quite interesting to watch in Norv Turner s offense.

3 Vikings Betting Capsule & 15 ines 2 SU: -9-0 (-1.12, 4.8%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Final ATS: --0 (1.2, 2.5%) Team O/U: --0 (-.25,.5%) Opp eek Date Day Opponent Site ine Total Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Final Margin ATS Margin SU ATS OU 1 9/ Sunday Rams A U 2 9/ Sunday Patriots H U 9/ Sunday Saints A U 4 9/28 Sunday Falcons H O 5 /2 Thursday Packers A O /12 Sunday ions H U /19 Sunday Bills A U 8 /2 Sunday Buccaneers A U 9 11/2 Sunday Redskins H O 11 11/1 Sunday Bears A U 12 11/2 Sunday Packers H U 1 11/0 Sunday Panthers H O 12/ Sunday Jets H O 15 12/ Sunday ions A U 1 12/ Sunday Dolphins A O 12/28 Sunday Bears H U NFproject.com Division Analysis and True Odds for Playoffs, Super Bowl & Division Title (as of //15) Check NFproject.com for future updates & weekly in-season analysis Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Minnesota Vikings Betting Capsule 15 eekly ines eek Team Current ine Open Opponent Site 1 Vikings ers A 2 Vikings ions H Vikings Chargers H 4 Vikings Broncos A Vikings Chiefs H Vikings ions A 8 Vikings Bears A 9 Vikings Rams H Vikings Raiders A 11 Vikings Packers H 12 Vikings Falcons A 1 Vikings Seahawks H Vikings Cardinals A 15 Vikings Bears H 1 Vikings Giants H Vikings Average via CG Technology Division in Analysis Since 11 & 15 ines

4 Vikings Analysis in Overdrive: Historical Results, Depth Chart, Coaches, Division & Schedule Historical Results vs 15 Opponents 15 Games ast Meeting (Team in Favor, eek Road (ine) Home Year Road (ine) Home Result Amount) 1 Vikings +.0 Fortyniners 12 Fortyniners -.5 Vikings Vikings -1 Vikings, ions +0.0 Vikings Vikings +8.0 ions ions 1- Vikings, 2 Chargers +0.0 Vikings 11 Vikings +9.0 Chargers Chargers - Vikings, 4 Vikings +.0 Broncos 11 Broncos +1.0 Vikings Broncos 5-2 Broncos, 2 Chiefs +1.0 Vikings 11 Vikings -2.0 Chiefs Chiefs 22- Chiefs, Vikings +.0 ions Vikings +8.0 ions ions 1- Vikings, 2 8 Vikings +2.0 Bears Bears +.5 Vikings Vikings 1-9 Bears, Rams +0.0 Vikings Vikings +.5 Rams Vikings 4- Rams, 2.5 Vikings -1.5 Raiders 11 Raiders +0.0 Vikings Raiders 2- Vikings,.5 11 Packers -.5 Vikings Packers -8.0 Vikings Packers - Vikings, Vikings +.0 Falcons 11 Vikings +9.5 Falcons Falcons - Vikings,.5 1 Seahawks -4.5 Vikings 1 Vikings +1.0 Seahawks Seahawks 41- Vikings, 2.5 Vikings +4.5 Cardinals 12 Cardinals +.5 Vikings Vikings - Cardinals, 5 15 Bears +2.5 Vikings Bears +.5 Vikings Vikings 1-9 Bears, 4 1 Giants +1.5 Vikings Giants -4.5 Vikings Giants - Vikings, 15 Coaches HC = Mike Zimmer (-9,.48 in MIN) OC = Norv Turner DC = George Edwards Toughest Schedule Stretches eek: k 11-1: SEA = #4 hardest in NF Team Division ins 1 Division ins 12 Division ins Divisional Dominance Index 11 Division ins Avg Div ins ast 4 Years Division Dominance Ranking 15 Schedule Grid Overall ins 1 Overall ins 12 Overall ins Packers ions Bears Vikings Overall ins SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY TEAM CHI GB OAK MIN ARI OAK SEA @ARI MIN DET KC CHI egend: HOME ROAD 1PM ET 4PM ET BYE SUN Night MON Night THU Night SAT Night Thanks Giving ondon Games ith Games here More Rest than Opp has More Games Vs Opp Team Avg Opp Rest Opp Rest Off of Bye Packers.8 2 Vikings Bears.2 0 ions.1 0 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved 4 eek: k 11-: = #9 hardest in NF 5 eek: k 11-15: CHI = # hardest in NF Easiest Schedule Stretches eek: Gm# = #1 easiest in NF 4 eek: = #15 easiest 5 eek: Gm# = # easiest (Ignores bye weeks uses game # instead)

5 Vikings Fact Sheet Team Records & Trends Record vs Other Divisions (Since 11) Average line Average O/U line Straight Up Record Against the Spread Record Over/Under Record ATS as Favorite ATS as Underdog Straight Up Home ATS Home Over/Under Home ATS as Home Favorite ATS as a Home Dog Straight Up Away ATS Away Over/Under Away ATS Away Favorite ATS Away Dog Six Point Teaser Record Seven Point Teaser Record Ten Point Teaser Record Team Team Opponents # of - ATS - Division Games - - P (marg, %win) Avg ine - O/U P (marg, %over) Avg Total - SU P (marg, %over) Vikings NFC South 4--0 (-2.5, 40.0%) (0.55, 55.%) (-5., 40.0%) NFC East (.9, 1.4%) (9., 8.%) (0.4, 5.1%) NFC est (.50, 1.4%) (4.4, 42.9%) (.5, 1.4%) AFC East (-2.88, 5.0%) (5.00, 50.0%) (-5.00, 25.0%) AFC North (-4.2, 50.0%) (.8, 0.0%) (-.00, 25.0%) AFC South (9.00, 50.0%) (-.00, 25.0%) (.00, 5.0%) AFC est (-.5, 25.0%) (.2, 50.0%) (-5.25, 0.0%) Fundamental Success Table: Pass or Rush hen Passing for OVER.5 ypa hen Passing for UNDER.5 ypa *Over vs Under* hen running for OVER 4.2 ypc hen running for UNDER 4.2 ypc *Over vs Under* Pass Avg Team > > % < < % Games over.500 > > % < < % Games over.500 vs Run Avg ions 8 0 0% 5 8% 1 2 % % Packers % 1 25% % 2 8% -2 Vikings 2 0% 4 % 4 5 8% % -2 Bears % % % 4 40% -2 2 Examines - when performing over or under NF avg: Avg pass ~.5 ypa; Avg run ~ 4.2 ypc 15 Offseason Spending Profile aivers (Re-Signed & Extended) Free Agents Drafted Undrafted Free Agents # aivers Spending Guaranteed # Free Agents Spending Guaranteed # Drafted Spending Guaranteed # Undrafted Spending Guaranteed Total Spending Total Spending (Rank) Total Guaranteed CHI,8,000 28,80,000 4,945,000 11,,000 9/9 1,259,58 11,281,892 1,58,500 8,500 14,0, ,450,92 GB 8,400,000 12,8,000 4,0,000 22,950,000 12/12 49,02,29 2,02,0 1,480,000, ,012, ,852,0 MIN 19,8, ,15,000 8,50,000 9/ ,9,500,500 0,44, 0 22,85,1 DET,02,500 2,0,000 11,280,000 2,50,000 / 25,,888,, 18,918,000 18,000 84,2,88 2,001, Critical & Game-Deciding Statistics 4 Team ins Turnovers Interceptions Fumbles Takeaways Interceptions Fumbles Sacks Return TDs Opponent Sacks Return TDs Penalties Taken Taken Allowed allowed Penalties Packers ions Vikings Bears Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Teams who win the turnover battle win 9% of games and cover 9% ATS Teams with more sacks win 1% of games and cover 9% ATS Teams with more return TDs win 5% of games and cover 5% ATS Teams with fewer penalties win 5% of games and cover 54% ATS

6 Vikings Personnel: Depth Chart, Fantasy Scoring, Health, Age & Pace 15 Projected Offensive Depth Chart Offensive Health, Age & Pace AG (Rk) 5.1 (8) Offensive AG (Rk) 9 (2) 1st Half Pace Rank 11 Offensive SA (Rk) 2. () AG (Rk) 5.9 (11) Offensive AG (Rk).4 (8) 1st Half Pace Rank 11 Offensive SA (Rk) 2. (19) AG = Adjusted Games ost (in games, less = better) SA = Snap eighted Age (in years, fewer = younger) Both metrics via Football Outsiders 1 88 Teddy Bridgewater QB Matt Cassel QB Christian Ponder QB Jerick McKinnon RB Greg Jennings R Jarius right R Charles Johnson R Cordarrelle Patterson R Kyle Rudolph TE Projected Defensive Depth Chart 1 Defensive Health & Age Defensive AG (Rk).1 () Defensive SA (Rk) 25.9 (29) Defensive AG (Rk) 2.5 () Defensive SA (Rk) 2.2 (11) 5 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Depth Charts & Player Grades via ProFootballFocus.com

7 Forward: About the Football Preview Transparent Record Keeping All client plays publicly displayed minutes after the start of the game NF s Most Consistent Results 9 Years, 9 inning Seasons Emphasizing sound money management, +EV betting opportunities & beating the market ifetime NF Record Totals: (0%) Sides (Personal Plays): 42- (58%) ifetime NF Playoffs Record: -1 (4%) ifetime Super Bowl Record: - (0%) ifetime College Football Record Totals: (55%) Respected Analysis Numerous betting syndicates acquire plays and arren s work is well known by current and former linemakers ine Value Using timed release system, when arren releases a play to clients, the market reacts giving clients consistent, significant & measurable line value "arren's synopsis on game totals is vastly superior utilizing his mathematical formulas, to any preview I have ever seen. His success is two-fold, beating the closing number by up to pts and winning at a clip needed to secure a hefty profit. Getting in early ensures some fantastic middling opportunities." "I noticed arren was moving some lines around on ednesdays after he put his stuff up on his site, and he was winning. Instantly, when arren gives out his play, the books move toward his line. Very rarely will you get a better number than his. He s a consistent winner." - Professional Bettor Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger - Richie Baccellieri, former Director of Race and Sports at Caesars Palace, MGM Grand and The Palms, current expert at The inemakers arren Sharp of sharpfootballanalysis.com is an industry pioneer at the forefront of incorporating advanced analytics and metrics into football handicapping after spending years constructing, testing, betting and perfecting computer models written to beat NF and college football totals. A licensed Professional Engineer by trade, arren now works as a quantitative analyst for multiple professional sports betting syndicates in as Vegas and has parlayed a long-term winning record into selections for clients which move the Vegas line and beat the closing number with regularity. Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved As Recently Seen In:

8 The Sharp Football Analysis Podcast -Every ednesday- Featuring the Rearviewmirror segment -Deeper than the score deeper than the boxscore -Advanced Metrics & Analytics -hy teams won or lost -hat to takeaway from the games also -eekly News & Headlines -Early Down Success Rate: Top 5 / Bottom 5 / Rise or Fall -Division & Playoff Projections via NFproject.com -Key Injuries Effect & Impact -Previews of Upcoming Games The Shark Tank Podcast -Every Friday- Part of the Daily Fantasy Analytics Package Featuring eekly Guests including Rotoworld s Evan Silva, Fox Sports 1s Todd Furhman and other DFS Pros

9 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) Personnel - Key Players ost RB Ben Tate DE Brett Keisel CB Brice McCain CB Ike Taylor OB Jason orilds R Justin Brown R ance Moore TE Michael Palmer S Troy Polamalu - Key Free Agents Gained RB DeAngelo illiams TE Brandon Hartson - Draft Positions Needed Cornerback Safety Tight End - Drafted Players OB Alvin Dupree R1, Kentucky CB Senquez Golson R2, Mississippi R Sammie Coates R, Auburn CB Doran Grant R4, Ohio St. TE Jesse James R5, Penn St. DE Anthony Chickillo R, Miami (F) DT eterrius alton R, Central Michigan FS Gerod Holliman R, ouisville -Draft Grade: 8 th (.00/4.00) - Biggest Post-Draft Issue: 1 Safety much more difficult. Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Advanced Analytics - Strengths using Advanced Analytics 1st in Offensive pass efficiency 2nd in Offensive EDSR 2nd in Offensive efficiency 4th in Offensive yds/pass 8th in Offensive 0 & In TD % 8th in Offensive rd down efficiency 8th in Overall efficiency TAKEAAY: Off of a very mediocre 8-8 season, where they were not great or terrible in any key facet, the boasted an insanely efficient offense, capable of rushing or passing. The improvement of the run game from 1 was dramatic. - eaknesses using Advanced Analytics 0th in Defensive pass efficiency 0th in Defensive efficiency 29th in Defensive yds/pass 29th in Defensive EDSR 25th in Defensive 0 & In TD % TAKEAAY: The Steelers were terrible vs the pass in. Teams had to pass on them often with a lead, but these are efficiency metrics, not cumulative ydg. Ranking 29 th in EDSR is bad, no matter the score. - Strength of Schedule The Steelers offense went against the 1 st rated defenses. The Steelers defense faced the 22 nd rated opponent's offenses. TAKEAAY: A year after facing the 2 nd rated opposing offenses, the Steelers faced the 1 st rated defenses. They also went against sub-par offenses. Their 15 schedule projects to be Results - Play Trends The Steelers were a very pass-happy offense for the 2 nd straight year: In 1 score games, they passed on 58% of offensive plays, 1 th most. Even when winning games, they passed on 5% of plays, 2 nd most. The Steelers were one of the best offenses on first and and 2 nd and short, two key downs: They gained 4.9 ypc on 1 st & rushes ( th ) and 8.4 ypa on 1 st & passes (4 th ), so a lot of balance and efficiency on 1 st down. They converted % of 2 nd & short rushes (5 th ) and 4% of 2 nd & short passes (8 th ). It s the 2 nd straight year this team excelled as one of the best on 2 nd and short. On rd and short, their passing was tremendous, as Ben Roethlisberger converted 8% of passes for 1 st down, rd best in the league. TAKEAAY: In last year s annual, I said: They need to improve their 1 st down efficiency in. They did that in a major way, which propelled them to one of the most efficient offenses the NF saw. - Interesting ATS/Total results from For a 2 nd straight year, the Steelers were great in projected close games but terrible in games they were projected to soundly win: In games lined within of pickem, the Steelers were -2 ATS. In games lined as favorites of over they went 2-5 ATS.. The Steelers went - in one score games. Future - atch For: T Kelvin Beachum Rookie surprise: CB Senquez Golson - Toughest Challenge: Over 5 games from week 12-1, the Steelers play the most difficult 5 game stretch for any NF team at any point in the Sea, Cin, Den Bal in primetime. It will be brutal. If Brady played in week 1, that game would likely be their toughest challenge. But playing in Seattle week 12 to kick off this brutal run of games is a nightmare. - Pressure is on: Keith Butler and Ben Roethlisberger the new DC takes over from a legend in Dick ebeau. But the defense has slipped tremendously the last few years. That puts a ton of pressure on Big Ben to deliver. He was able to do so last year. But that was vs the 1 st ranked defenses. Not the Seahawks, Cardinals, and others they will face in 15. Their defense must improve quickly or they won t come close to 11 wins in 15.

10 Steelers Betting Capsule & 15 ines SU: (., 4.%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Final ATS: (1.18, 52.9%) Team O/U: --0 (.0, 58.8%) Opp eek Date Day Opponent Site ine Total Q1 Q2 Q Q4 Final Margin ATS Margin SU ATS OU 1 9/ Sunday Browns H O 2 9/11 Thursday Ravens A U 9/ Sunday Panthers A O 4 9/28 Sunday Buccaneers H O 5 /5 Sunday Jaguars A U /12 Sunday Browns A U / Monday Texans H O 8 /2 Sunday Colts H O 9 11/2 Sunday Ravens H O 11/9 Sunday Jets A U 11 11/ Monday Titans A O 1 11/0 Sunday Saints H O 12/ Sunday Bengals A O 15 12/ Sunday Falcons A U 1 12/ Sunday Chiefs H U 12/28 Sunday Bengals H U 18 1/ Saturday Ravens H O NFproject.com Division Analysis and True Odds for Playoffs, Super Bowl & Division Title (as of //15) Check NFproject.com for future updates & weekly in-season analysis 2 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Capsule 15 eekly ines eek Team Current ine Open Opponent Site 1 Steelers Patriots A 2 Steelers ers H Steelers Rams A 4 Steelers Ravens H 5 Steelers Chargers A Steelers Cardinals H Steelers Chiefs A 8 Steelers Bengals H 9 Steelers Raiders H Steelers Browns H 12 Steelers Seahawks A 1 Steelers Colts H Steelers Bengals A 15 Steelers Broncos H 1 Steelers Ravens A Steelers Average via CG Technology Division in Analysis Since 11 & 15 ines

11 Steelers Analysis in Overdrive: Historical Results, Depth Chart, Coaches, Division & Schedule Historical Results vs 15 Opponents 15 Games ast Meeting (Team in Favor, eek Road (ine) Home Year Road (ine) Home Result Amount) 1 Steelers +.0 Patriots 1 Steelers +.0 Patriots Patriots 55-1 Steelers, 4 2 Fortyniners +.5 Steelers 11 Steelers +2.5 Fortyniners Fortyniners - Same Steelers +1.5 Rams 11 Rams Steelers Steelers 2-0 Rams,.5 4 Ravens +2.5 Steelers Ravens +.0 Steelers Ravens 0- Ravens, Steelers +1.0 Chargers 12 Chargers +.5 Steelers Chargers 4- Chargers, 2.5 Cardinals +.0 Steelers 11 Steelers -.5 Cardinals Steelers 2- Cardinals,.5 Steelers +2.5 Chiefs Chiefs +.0 Steelers Steelers -12 Steelers, Bengals +.0 Steelers Bengals +.5 Steelers Steelers 2- Bengals, Raiders +9.5 Steelers Raiders +8.0 Steelers Steelers 5- Steelers, 1.5 Browns +.5 Steelers Steelers +2.0 Browns Browns 1- Steelers,.5 12 Steelers +5.5 Seahawks 11 Seahawks +.0 Steelers Steelers -0 Seahawks, Colts +2.5 Steelers Colts -4.0 Steelers Steelers 51-4 Steelers,.5 Steelers +2.5 Bengals Bengals +.5 Steelers Steelers 2- Same 15 Broncos +1.0 Steelers 12 Steelers +2.0 Broncos Broncos 1-19 Broncos, 1 Steelers +.0 Ravens Ravens +.0 Steelers Ravens 0- Same Coaches HC = Mike Tomlin (82-4,.41 w PIT) 1 Super Bowl Championship 2 AFC Championships 4 AFC North Championships 5 Playoff Berths OC = Todd Haley DC = Keith Butler (via PIT B coach) Toughest Schedule Stretches eek: k = # hardest in NF Team Division ins 1 Division ins 12 Division ins Divisional Dominance Index 11 Division ins Avg Div ins ast 4 Years Division Dominance Ranking 15 Schedule Grid Overall ins 1 Overall ins 12 Overall ins Ravens Steelers Bengals Browns Overall ins SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY TEAM CE SD SEA KC CE @DEN BA ARI BA PIT CIN OAK @CE egend: HOME ROAD 1PM ET 4PM ET BYE SUN Night MON Night THU Night SAT Night Thanks Giving ondon Games ith Games here More Rest than Opp has More Games Vs Opp Team Avg Opp Rest Opp Rest Off of Bye Browns.5 1 Steelers.5 1 Ravens. 1 Bengals Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved 4 eek: k DEN = #2 hardest 5 eek: k = #1 hardest Easiest Schedule Stretches eek: Gm# 8-: CIN, OAK, CE = # easiest in NF 4 eek: Gm# CIN, OAK, CE = #1 easiest 5 eek: Gm# -: CIN, OAK, CE = #19 easiest (Ignores bye weeks uses game # instead)

12 Steelers Fact Sheet Team Records & Trends Record vs Other Divisions (Since 11) Average line Average O/U line Straight Up Record Against the Spread Record Over/Under Record ATS as Favorite ATS as Underdog Straight Up Home ATS Home Over/Under Home ATS as Home Favorite ATS as a Home Dog Straight Up Away ATS Away Over/Under Away ATS Away Favorite ATS Away Dog Six Point Teaser Record Seven Point Teaser Record Ten Point Teaser Record Team Team Opponents # of - ATS - Division Games - - P (marg, %win) Avg ine - O/U P (marg, %over) Avg Total - SU P (marg, %over) Steelers AFC South 4--0 (-0., 40.0%) (0.80, 0.0%) (4.0, 0.0%) AFC est (-8.19, 12.5%) (1.50, 50.0%) (-2.8,.5%) AFC East 4--0 (1.00, 5.1%) (1., 28.%) (2.00, 5.1%) NFC East (.00, 50.0%) (-4.25, 25.0%) (4.50, 5.0%) NFC North (-1.8, 50.0%) (.5, 0.0%) (-1.5, 50.0%) NFC South (2.25, 50.0%) (.12, 5.0%) (4.5, 50.0%) NFC est (4.5, 5.0%) (-.50, 25.0%) (11.50, 5.0%) Fundamental Success Table: Pass or Rush hen Passing for OVER.5 ypa hen Passing for UNDER.5 ypa *Over vs Under* hen running for OVER 4.2 ypc hen running for UNDER 4.2 ypc *Over vs Under* Pass Avg Team > > % < < % Games over.500 > > % < < % Games over.500 vs Run Avg Steelers 9 5% % 4 5% 2 8% -4 Bengals 2 8% 50% % 4 0% 1 4 Browns % 1 % % 5 8 8% 4 4 Ravens % % % 2 4 % 8 2 Examines - when performing over or under NF avg: Avg pass ~.5 ypa; Avg run ~ 4.2 ypc 15 Offseason Spending Profile aivers (Re-Signed & Extended) Free Agents Drafted Undrafted Free Agents # aivers Spending Guaranteed # Free Agents Spending Guaranteed # Drafted Spending Guaranteed # Undrafted Spending Guaranteed Total Spending Total Spending (Rank) Total Guaranteed PIT 2 1,115,000 5,25, ,450,000 1,80,000 8/8 28,58,5 11,805, ,0,500 5,500 0,2,0 4,95,880 CE 12 11,50, , ,85,000 2,50,000 /,255,55,, ,89,05 54,12,191 BA 19 14,,000 44,550, ,855, ,000 8/8 2,94,5 8,92,404 2,295,000 0, ,41,5 18 2,812,404 CIN 18 18,00,5 25,000 4,20,000 2,8,000 / 25,98,,08,2 2,859,000 84,000 15,118,8 25 4,00,2 4 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Critical & Game-Deciding Statistics Team ins Turnovers Interceptions Fumbles Takeaways Interceptions Fumbles Sacks Return TDs Opponent Sacks Return TDs Penalties Taken Taken Allowed allowed Penalties Steelers Bengals Ravens Browns Teams who win the turnover battle win 9% of games and cover 9% ATS Teams with more sacks win 1% of games and cover 9% ATS Teams with more return TDs win 5% of games and cover 5% ATS Teams with fewer penalties win 5% of games and cover 54% ATS

13 Steelers Personnel: Depth Chart, Fantasy Scoring, Health, Age & Pace 15 Projected Offensive Depth Chart Offensive Health, Age & Pace AG (Rk) 42.8 (4) Offensive AG (Rk) 4.1 (1) 1st Half Pace Rank 15 Offensive SA (Rk) 2.5 () AG (Rk) 82.9 () Offensive AG (Rk) 55. (28) 1st Half Pace Rank 0 Offensive SA (Rk) 2.4 (25) AG = Adjusted Games ost (in games, less = better) SA = Snap eighted Age (in years, fewer = younger) Both metrics via Football Outsiders 1 5 Ben Roethlisberger* QB e'veon Bell* RB Antonio Brown* R Martavis Bryant R Markus heaton R Heath Miller TE Projected Defensive Depth Chart 1 Defensive Health & Age Defensive AG (Rk) 8. () Defensive SA (Rk) 2.8 () Defensive AG (Rk) 2.5 (1) Defensive SA (Rk) 28.4 (1) 5 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Depth Charts & Player Grades via ProFootballFocus.com

14 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved DON T PAY NO! CAN YOU REAY GET A OF ARREN s 15 RECOMMENDATIONS ITHOUT PAYING A CENT UNTI THE SEASON ENDS? From arren: Paypal gave me a GREAT opportunity to help all my clients in 15. I m A ABOUT efficiency & this is THE MOST efficient way to get on board. ith Bill Me ater, any subscription over $99 allows you to pay NOTHING NO & NOTHING for up to months! That s E after the season is OVER! Everyone has a bankroll and needs to manage it. But this is by FAR the very best way to not eat into your bankroll AT A before the season starts. Plus, by purchasing a full season subscription, you re getting the OEST EEKY RATE! And the cheapest method of accessing my analysis, with no payments and no interest until well after the season ends? There is no downside to this insane offer, and no strings. hen looking for my analysis and recommendations, its easily the very best option for reasons: 1. Keep your bankroll at 0% 2. Get the cheapest weekly rate all year. Pay AFTER the season ends Instead of buying a weekly package, this is cheaper/week and costs you NOTHING until the season ends. I would not be promoting it if I didn t think it was the single best move you could make before the season starts. Just look for the Paypal Credit option when you check out at Paypal!

15 2 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved In, the NF Data Science Project was launched. The NF Data Science Project brings the power of cutting edge machine learning algorithms and big data technology to NF analytics. Utilizing massive computational power in conjunction with state of the art mathematical techniques, a deeper understanding of the NF was made available to the common fan. During the season, the home of the NF Data Science Project, released week by week results and analysis from its NF Season Simulation model. Aspects of the simulation model that represent an edge over the standard industry analysis are: A game by game simulation of the entire NF schedule as it will actually play out Ability to map out the complexity of all interactions related to division and conference rankings Implementation of playoff rules in addition to home/away implications Inclusion of the most accurate predictive information available in forecasting the variability of future game outcomes Granular analysis on a team by team basis related to individual game outcomes, personnel changes and their specific effect on season results The inaugural season was extremely accurate and very successful. After 1 month of the season, NFproject.com projected the following AFC playoff teams: Denver Broncos* New England Patriots* Indianapolis Colts* Cincinnati Bengals* San Diego Chargers Baltimore Ravens NFproject.com correctly hit on of the 4 division winners (indicated by the *), and 5 of the playoff teams. ith the Pittsburgh Steelers winning their last 4 games of the regular season, they leapfrogged the Bengals for The 15-1 Season, Before it Happens via NFproject.com the AFC North crown, and despite a 9- record, the San Diego Chargers missed the playoffs. In the NFC, just 1 month into the season, NFproject.com projected 4 of the correctly, and by the end of week, the projected NFC playoff teams were: Seattle Seahawks* Green Bay Packers* Dallas Cowboys* Carolina Panthers* Philadelphia Eagles Arizona Cardinals Using these early October projections, NFproject.com hit all 4 division winners (*) and 1 ild Card team (Arizona Cardinals) but with the Eagles losing of their last 4 games, despite a - record, they missed the playoffs and the Detroit ions were the last team in. Thus, well under halfway thru the season, the simulations accurately projected of the 8 division winners and of the 12 playoff teams. The lone division winner which was incorrect (Cincinnati Bengals) finished with a strong -5-1 record. The two teams predicted to make the playoffs but did not finished with - (Philadelphia Eagles) and 9- (San Diego Chargers) records. These results were extremely accurate, and with a few tweaks heading into the 15 season, the model has already been run thru hundreds of thousands of simulations at several points in the offseason. The most current run came following the June minicamps. These results will be shared over the next few pages. Be sure to check NFproject.com weekly during the season to find changes as the season progresses. 15 Projections Both the NFC and AFC are projected to be two-horse races, with several very strong teams pushing from the outside. As in previous seasons, the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are the class of the NFC. In the AFC, the model expects the Colts to surge forward and finally land a first round bye in the playoffs under Andrew uck, sharing the week off with Tom Brady s New England Patriots. The Broncos and Ravens win the other two AFC divisions to secure home games in the ild Card round, while the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC East and South. The Eagles may have a better season than the Falcons, but have to compete vs the Cowboys and thus will still make the postseason, but do so as a 5th seed. The model currently is projecting very solid records from the NFC East teams, sending teams to the playoffs much like the AFC North did in. The model projects two very proud and successful NFC divisions take a step back in 15, with the NFC North and est being dominated by the best team in each division. Meanwhile, the NFC South is very tough to predict and while the Falcons currently have the nod, the Saints and Panthers are both very close to being that sole representative from the South to make the playoffs. Over in the AFC, much like the NFC North and est, the AFC South and East should be dominated by the division's elite, the Colts and Patriots. The model sees the Jaguars and Titans with very little hope to do much of anything in 15, slotting both teams at the bottom of projections. The closest division will once again be the AFC North, but the model expects the AFC est to be more competitive than it was in 15. Despite the Broncos still being favorites to win the division, the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have a better shot in 15 than they had in. astly, sneaking into the sixth seed are the Buffalo Bills, led by Rex Ryan in his first season, and the way the season is projected to play out, Rex gets to go up against Peyton Manning in the first round of the playoffs, which he surely will enjoy.

16 The 15-1 Season, Before it Happens via NFproject.com 15 Projected Division Ranks 15 Projected True Odds to in Division 28 *Per the //15 Model-Run; Stay tuned for 8/ & 9/ updates & eekly in-season updates Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved

17 The 15-1 Season, Before it Happens via NFproject.com 15 Projected True Odds to Make the Playoffs 29 *Per the //15 Model-Run; Stay tuned for 8/ & 9/ updates & eekly in-season updates Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved

18 291 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Early Down Success Rate As you know from my forward to this publication, I consider myself a quantitative analyst, or quant. My passion is for researching football related information and understanding what are the drivers to winning games. This is easily applied to football handicapping. I excel in my totals, but I ve actually been exceedingly strong in my ATS predictions (who will win and cover the spread) the last several years. And that success has been driven by my in-depth dive into advanced metrics and efficiency statistics. Just over 2 years ago, I created an advanced analytic called Early Down Success Rate. It essentially measures an offense s efficiency in the early downs, and their ability to avoid rd downs. Its critical, because NF teams as a whole converted 40% of rd down attempts in, and the average for years and years has been roughly 9%. In fact, teams convert first downs on 2 nd and anything at a 2% clip. But when they are closer to the line of scrimmage and MUST convert the rd down to keep the drive alive, the percentage isn t that much higher. To many, its about picking up the big yards, the chunk plays, or converting the short yardage. And while there is absolutely no way to underestimate the importance of chunk yardage and big plays (its MASSIVE), there is a tendency to underestimate how critical it is to stay OUT of rd downs. Most every statistics website shares rd down percentage, as if it is the holy grail of success, and it pops up on every broadcast. But the reality is moving the sticks on 1 st and 2 nd downs is MORE correlated to winning than moving them on rd down. Running a regression on the data the past years and, plain as day, it s a reality. I wrote an algorithm based on Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) to test its success. From -12 ( seasons) it hit 9-48 (%) ATS. Its one thing to backtest and find success, so I ran it the last two seasons to see its predictions before kickoff. Its recommendations went 9-9 (4%) ATS. These numbers certainly are eye-popping and deserving of significant attention. The EDSR algorithm is, of course, proprietary as is the actual manner in which I compile the EDSR rankings. ast year, I began to share some of the following trend charts with clients in select write-ups. These show weekly results and the trending nature of teams over time. hen the up/down box is white, the team won the EDSR battle over their opponent that week. hen its black, they lost. As the blue line (EDSR offense) move north on the graph, it shows improvement. As the red line (EDSR defense) moves south, it shows improvement. Movement in the opposite direction equates to a team getting worse in that metric. Notice how the Patriots were so far above the horizontal axis most of the year. That s great for offense, but poor for defense. The Ravens, however, were not as fortunate to be as high offensively, but they trended very well to close the season and into the playoffs, Patriots MIA MIN OAK KC CIN BUF NYJ CHI DEN IND DET GB SD MIA NYJ BA IND Ravens CIN PIT CE CAR IND TB AT CIN PIT TEN NO SD MIA JAC HOU CE PIT NE K OPP / MARGIN PTS OPP PTS K OPP / MARGIN PTS EGEND TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY OPP PTS EGEND TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY

19 Early Down Success Rate which was a big reason why they did so well in the postseason and nearly upset the Patriots in New England. Every single one of these teams were playoff teams, but most had such different profiles. The Packers were extremely consistent offensively, and improved defensively particularly late in the year. The Colts were quite similar, and played incredibly good defense before falling apart in two key games: Dallas week 1 and New England in the AFC Championship game. The ions offense struggled during the middle of the year, and while they improved late, it was not enough. The Cowboys offense saw tremendous growth over the course of the season. Unfortunately, their EDSR defense regressed as well, leading to many high scoring games. I plan to continue to use EDSR extensively and provide these same graphics and weekly insights to clients during the 15 NF season. Steelers Seahawks 1 GB K SD DEN AS DA ST CAR OAK NYG KC ARI SF PHI SF ARI ST CAR GB OPP CE BA CAR 4 TB CIN AT KC CIN BA OPP 18 K / / MARGIN MARGIN PTS PTS OPP PTS OPP PTS 0.8 EGEND 0. TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY EGEND 0. TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY Packers Cowboys K 19 K SF TEN ST NO HOU SEA NYG AS ARI JAC NYG PHI CHI PHI IND AS DET GB OPP / 1 SEA NYJ DET CHI MIN MIA CAR NO CHI PHI MIN NE AT BUF TB DET DA SEA OPP / MARGIN MARGIN PTS PTS OPP PTS OPP PTS 1 EGEND TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY EGEND 0. TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY ions Colts K DEN PHI JAC TEN BA HOU CIN PIT NYG NE JAC AS CE HOU DA TEN CIN DEN NE OPP NYG CAR GB NYJ BUF MIN NO AT MIA ARI NE CHI TB MIN CHI K GB DA OPP / / MARGIN MARGIN 2 2 PTS PTS 1 45 OPP PTS OPP PTS Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved JAC CE HOU IND BA NYJ TEN NO EGEND TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY EGEND TRENDINES: *BUE=OFFENSE (HIGH = GOOD) *RED=DEFENSE (O = GOOD) UP/DN BOXES: *NET "+" EDSR= GREEN/HITE *NET "-" EDSR= YEO/GRAY

20 Situational Reliability Since 12 Both fans and sports bettors alike care about the reliability of their team. How consistent are they? How often do they live up to expectations? At the end of the day, teams care about wins and losses, regardless of whether they are favored by or points. However, from a fan or bettor reliability perspective, a team favored by 2 points is playing a game they might only win just over 50% of the time, while a team favored by points should almost never lose that game. Its what fans and bettors expect, and teams (to a degree) feel the same. Trap games where they face a lesser quality opponent who they could overlook is approached differently as compared to a division foe who they match up with in a virtual coin-toss game. The table to the right shows the most reliable teams in both underdog and favorite role, and then compiles the overall most reliable. For each grouping, you ll see the team s average line over the past years and the projected rate that they should win games given a line of that size. Then you ll see the actual rate at which they won those games, and an index I created to place value on a team s success. In the underdog role, the AFC seems to own the category save for the top spot which goes to the Cardinals. The Colts, Bills, Browns and Dolphins round out the top 5 for best underdog teams. On the other end of the spectrum are the Broncos, who are 1- as dogs since 12. The ions and Texans are also poor underdogs when it comes to winning outright. 19 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved Most Reliable Dog Teams (Record as Dogs) Most Reliable Favorite Teams (Record hen Favored) Team SU SU Avg ine Proj Rate Actual Rate Index Rank SU SU Avg ine Proj Rate Actual Rate Index Rank Overall Rank Colts % 9% % 8% Cardinals 5.1 0% 4% % 1% Ravens 4.1 % 59% % % Bills % 5% % % Seahawks 2. 41% 54% % 85% Bengals % 0% % 9% Panthers % 58% % % ers 4 4. % 40% % 84% Jets 8.1 0% 5% % 59% Falcons 4.8 4% 4% % 1% Cowboys % 50% % 9% Bears % 45% % 4% Patriots % 42% % 8% Chiefs 5.9 1% 4% % 8% Dolphins % 58% % 58% Titans.1 0% 50% % 0% Browns % 0% % 50% Chargers % 5% % 59% Steelers % 50% % 5% Saints % % % % Packers 2 4. % 22% % 82% Vikings % 9% % 58% Buccaneers % 5% % 42% Rams % 9% % 55% Broncos 1. 9% % % 8% Eagles 4. % 0% % 59% Raiders 8.5 2% % % 0% Giants % 29% % 5% Redskins % 2% % 5% Texans % 1% % 0% Jaguars % % % 50% ions % % % 58% In terms of the favorite role, the most reliable team has been the Colts. Their 8% win rate is similar to that of the Patriots, but based on the lines, they should have won only % of these games rather than the % that the Patriots were projected to win, thus the Colts outperformed the Patriots. The Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers and aforementioned Patriots round out the top 5, but it should be noted that prior to, the 49ers were #1 in this role, but they faltered tremendously in as a favorite. In terms of favorites who simply are not reliable to bettors or fans of these teams, you can start with the Buccaneers, who have not been favored often (just 12 times) but lost of these games, far more than they statistically should lose as favorites at the lines assigned to them. The Browns, Jaguars and Rams should make bettors leery when made favorites. Typically, when a team is made a favorite, the public automatically believes the linesmaker thinks they are the better team, and better teams should win, so they gravitate toward betting on favorites. But some teams are absolutely terrible in the favorite role, and cost bettors routinely. One team who has produced strong records but is not a reliable favorite has been the Chargers. They rank 2 th and have won 59% of their games as favorites, even though they should have won 9%. This study into situational performance and reliability is very interesting. Again, none of the records are ATS, its all about wins and losses given caliber of opponent.

21 Copyright by Sharp Football Analysis, C All rights reserved orst eek Stretch: 1. Arizona: k 15- GB, SEA 2. Carolina: k -8 PHI, IND. Miami: k 15- IND, NE 4. Houston: k Minnesota: k 11-1 = SEA 15 Top 5 / Bottom 5 (Based on SoS per Opponent RSs) Easiest eek Stretch: 1. Tennessee: k 11-1 OAK, JAC 2. Cleveland: k 1- TEN, OAK. Indianapolis: k 2-4 = JAX 4. Denver: k Chicago: k -1 orst 4 eek Stretch: 1. Carolina: k -9 PHI, IND, GB 2. Pittsburgh: k DEN. Indianapolis: k -9 = NE, DEN 4. Houston: k = 5. San Francisco: k 4- = BA, SEA orst 5 eek Stretch: 1. Pittsburgh: k Denver: k 8-12 = NE. Indianapolis: k 5-9 NE, DEN 4. Miami: k 1- = BA, IND, NE 5. San Francisco: k - BA, SEA orst First Month: 1. Kansas DEN, 2. Jacksonville: Buffalo: IND, NYG 5. BA orst ast Month: 1. GB, 2. Miami: IND, NE. Arizona: GB, SEA 4. Baltimore: SEA, KC, 5. BA Easiest 4 eek Stretch: 1. Tennessee: k 11- OAK, 2. Cleveland: k 1-4 TEN, Indianapolis: k 2-5 = 4. Atlanta: k 5-8 TB 5. Denver: k - MIN, Easiest 5 eek Stretch: 1. Tennessee: k - = OAK, 2. Kansas City: k 1- CE, OAK. Indianapolis: k Atlanta: k Cleveland: k 1-5 Easiest First Month: IND, bye 2. New England: JAX, bye. TEN, 4. JAX BUF, NYJ Easiest ast Month: 1. TEN 2. DET. New DET, 4. New TEN, 5. Kansas City: CE, OAK

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