1 Benjamin Solak of NDT Scouting presents Contextualized Quarterbacking a charting endeavor designed to provide steadfast responses to quarterbacking narratives through hard data, thereby improving the landscape of quarterback evaluations
2 2 Table of Contents Introduction 3 Methodology 4 Josh Allen 14 Kurt Benkert 17 Sam Darnold 20 Luke Falk 23 Lamar Jackson 26 Kyle Lauletta 29 Chase Litton 32 Baker Mayfield 35 Josh Rosen 38 Mason Rudolph 41 Brandon Silvers 44 Mike White 47 Logan Woodside 50 arative Measures 53 Acknowledgements 72
3 Introduction D uring my time covering the NFL Draft, I ve had many opportunities to grow. In a profession that necessitates showing one s work, we seem to oscillate about our peers in a cycle of learning and teaching. At its finest, is a heartwarming, constructive process. But media scouting can easily become combative. When working for a team, a scout s objective find good players serves a larger mission: win a championship. Without the team, a scout in the media misses the forest, as it were, and begins bickering about the trees. Being right is now the only goal, the ultimate goal and, invariably accompanying the desire to be right, is the temptation to prove the other guy wrong. In this way, I believe, we too easily throw stones from glass houses, undercutting others in a zero-sum pursuit for self-assuredness. It s an easy trap, into which we all fall: we disagree on prospects, so we debate, which all too often devolves into jabs and even insults. Quarterbacks, as the most important and complex of evaluations, represent the most common battleground. I wanted to improve the conversation around quarterbacks specifically, with a method entrenched in unfettered truths. As such, the CQ became: a project wherein every throw is categorized and charted, levered into understanding how a quarterback performs under various circumstances. I do not believe the CQ will solve quarterback evaluations; I do believe it will add objective context to those evaluations, and in doing so, allow us to investigate these players in more nuanced ways. It is a sincere pleasure to present Contextualized Quarterbacking. Thank you for reading. I hope you find it valuable. - Benjamin N. Solak 3
4 Methodology Here, I will explain how I determined the contexts I used, how throws were graded, and how the information provided can be best utilized. Every 2017 throw of a quarterback available to me was graded. Some throws, regrettably, were immediately discarded: perhaps the wide receiver fell out of his break; the quarterback was hit on the release; there was a miscommunication between route runner and thrower. There are certainly characteristics and traits to be gleaned on such plays, but that endeavor belongs to a more heuristic approach. The only throws in which we are interested are chart-worthy throws: throws wherein the camera catches both the release and arrival of the football, the throw was intended for a receiver, and the receiver ended up where he belonged. I also insisted on an overhand release motion: Shovel passes have no place here. All-22 film, when available, was used to best understand ball location and coverage shells; when not available, regular broadcast film was used. A crucial note The CQ does not evaluate quarterback decision-making. When a boneheaded 20-year-old decides to heave a prayer into triple coverage, the CQ does not differentiate that throw from a wide-open TE on a Ghost screen at least, not until the ball arrives among the brambles of defensive backs. The CQ evaluates how well a quarterback throws the football under different conditions. It is not a scouting report. Every quarterback included here would have better numbers if they made better decisions. That s why scouting understanding ceilings, intelligence, coachability, et cetera is so important. 4
5 5 Methodology First Read One of our five primary contexts, determining whether a QB delivered the football to his First Read or Beyond holds value for multiple reasons. Firstly, it helps bust narratives around certain styles of offense. Mike White of Western Kentucky, Luke Falk of Washington State, and Brandon Silvers of Troy all run Air-Raid inspired offenses. Yet, while 21% of Falk s attempts were Beyond his first read, and 19% of White s, only 10% of Silvers made it Beyond. This is a good example of the CQ providing a context by challenging a notion and forcing a question: were Troy s receivers that much better than WKU s and Wazzu s at separating? The film says no; rather, Silvers doggedly glued himself to his first read at a disturbing frequency and this conclusion made from a cursory glance is reflected in our data. I charted First Reads quite stringently. If you were prescribed a threeman spacing concept and executed it in rhythm, it s very unlikely you got credit for moving Beyond. I wanted to see a quarterback make a decision a conscious reading of leverage/spacing., an evaluation of his first read s leverage before moving on. Robotically shifting from target to target with the sole intention of moving defenders to eventually hit the checkdown doesn t cut the mustard for me. Moving beyond the first read doesn t necessarily mean a quarterback is poised: premature pocket-breakers (lookin at you, Kurt Benkert) often moved beyond their first read without a semblance of calm or control.
6 Methodology What a high incidence of Beyond does show us, however, is a quarterback s ability to retain his head post-snap. He has at least enough werewithal to freelance with wide receivers as he scrambles, and at most, the playbook understanding, poise, and self-control to shred a defense with whatever they give him. Far more straightforward than a First Read evaluation: if you re inside of the original tackle box, you re likely still In the. When a moving pocket was established think sprint-out motion with a puller, common in Virginia s offense the consideration of In the was widened accordingly. The pocket extended back infinitely. On the pandemic fake a bubble screen, throw the tunnel screen the other way play, the QB often had to back up 5+ yards from the snap to sucker the defense in. Still in the pocket, for charting purposes. data gives us a few insights: how often a QB was exposed to the field without protection often speaks to his running ability; how often a QB freelanced; and what happened when he did. Platform Platform considerations are quite muddled, and were reasonably applied on a case-by-case basis without strong indicators. As you watch more reps of a quarterback, you become more familiar with his Clean Platform, which correspondingly makes it easier to find his Adjusted Platform, the most elusive of the three. ( Move Platform is the third.) 6
7 Methodology The Move Platform is likely the easiest to understand and identify: the quarterback threw on the move. When moving to the non-dominant hand side, it can become a touch more complex, as the QB swivels his hips and gives the illusion of an Adjusted Platform. Still Move, in most cases though I must reiterate, Platforms are tricky, and must be evaluated case-by-case. A Clean Platform involves, at the very least, hips and shoulders aimed to the target. A visible weight transfer is preferred to distinguish it from a common Adjusted Platform throw, in which the QB is pointed toward his target, but falling backwards, away from pressure. However, some passers Josh Allen gets the glare this time tend to forgo their weight transfer; their establishment of a throwing hallway; everything. Have they forced themselves into an Adjusted Platform without really Adjusting for anything? I m afraid that s often the case. Platform context gives us a huge insight into accuracy and placement, and the degree to which they are tied to mechanics. Check out Kyle Lauletta if you don t believe me. Pressure Pressure is likely the touchiest of the considerations, as pressure can result in so many outcomes: an easy climb of the pocket and Clean Platform throw; a frantic heave on the Move; a promising throw from the pocket turned Adjusted Platform from interior push. What happens when the QB escapes? Gets sacked? Throws the football away? In other words: do not use the Pressure stats to evaluate a QB s decision-making under pressure. Of course, don t use any CQ data to 7
8 Methodology evaluate decision-making, but especially not for pressure. Use accuracy and placement under pressure to contextualize poise and accuracy from varying arm angles; use frequency of pressure in pocket to contextualize offensive line play; use numbers under pressure to contextualize risk-taking propensities. Charting pressure takes a steady hand, as no quarter can be given to quarterbacks who create their own pressure by retreating too deep into the pocket or rolling out unnecessarily. When color flashes, every quarterback has a reflex: flee or hang tough. Often, that decision itself determines whether or not a defender s valiant effort becomes a Pressure. This again speaks to the CQ s Pressure numbers relationship with poise. Tight Window The Tight Window is the most circumstantial of all contexts, and falls victim most austerely to the restrictions of camera angles. Colloquially, a Tight Window throw either narrowed the region of potential ball location that would be called Well Placed, or forced the potential ball location of Well Placed to be relocated entirely from the region it would otherwise be. Plainly, the defense and field boundaries changed the ideal ball placement on any given throw, when compared to that same throw in an open field. You begin to know it when you see it. Sometimes it s easy: a honey hole shot against good Cover 2; a stick route against flat zones on the goal line. Sometimes it s hard delivering a comeback intentionally low and away, forcing the WR to dive; threading a needle on a seam route. 8
9 9 Methodology It s important to visualize Tight Windows vertically as well as horizontally. Dropping a dig route over the sinking LBs but in front of the closing safeties takes a steady hand; driving a ball to the back of the end zone, above the DB but before the sideline, also speaks to this idea. Tight Window metrics help us understand how much a QB trusts his arm/what happens when he does as well as help us contextualize the presumption that their WRs failed to separate. A quick note to that regard, however: A WR can wear a DB like a cloak if he can still present his chest to the QB on an in-breaking route, that is not a Tight Window throw. Be careful when assuming Tight Window equals no separation. Remember, the ball doesn t arrive at the window; it goes through it. Tight Window throws also help us contextualize, in my opinion, the degree to which a QB can be a gamer. Big time plays in big time ways, people.
10 10 Methodology Those are our five contexts: First Read/Beyond; Inside/Outside of ; Clean/Adjusted/Move Platform; Pressured/Unpressured; Clear/Tight Window. All throws in these contexts were graded on how they arrived at their target. This grade was divided into two categories: Accuracy and Placement. Accuracy is a binary system, and is relative to whether or not the ball was catchable. Placement is tertiary (whole point, half point, no point) and has more complex considerations. This division was made in an effort to distinguish accuracy from ball placement, as colloquial terms we use to describe a quarterback s ability to locate the football. These measures, agnostic of the result of the play, work with the contexts to provide a fully-fleshed picture of a quarterback s accuracy in a way that I think no other resource can provide. Catchable A ball on which a WR can get at least one hand, with at least one foot in bounds, is catchable. A steadfast rule here helps, as we do not want to allow the acrobatic, catch-radius artists of Oklahoma State to synthetically boost Mason Rudolph s catchable numbers when compared to Kyle Lauletta and his FCS teammates. Balls that never arrive to the receiver can be determined catchable: think underthrows, or balls that are undercut and picked off. Catchable is graded against air as if no defenders were present. This system does disproportionately reward underthrows but placement fixes that.
11 Methodology Placement Placement works in union with Catchable to balance out underthrows and account for defenders. Placement considers three main factors along with unique considerations of individual plays, where applicable. Without hierarchy, they are: the maximization of YAC; the protection of the throw from defenders; the protection of the WR from hits. If we step into our mind, we can easily see how this translates: a wellplaced back-shoulder fade is away and high, but not too high as to expose the receiver to being shoved out of bounds; a well-placed sit route leads the receiver away from the closing safety he cannot see; a wellplaced slant in the end zone sticks right between the numbers. Placement is inherently less concerned with receivers and more concerned with defenders as such, it responds to the underthrow issue of Catchable. A deep ball two yards underthrown may be Catchable, but is likely Poorly Placed, as it exposes the ball to the defender to make a play. A deep ball two yards overthrown may not be Catchable, but it is Decently Placed (half a point) or even Well Placed (full point) relative to the coverage. While it is not written into the script, Placement does reflect on a quarterback s velocity. A perfectly-located ball that arrives too late and dies in the air likely will not end up getting a Well Placed grade, as it allows the DB to arrive and make a play. Likewise, an absolute heater of a ball better be in an easy place to make a catch otherwise, nobody s hanging on to that thing. 11
12 Methodology Notes: A few ancillary notes on charting, before we get into the data: If a penalty did not affect the process of a play, I still charted that play. For example: offensive holding affects absolutely nothing in the QB s process, and as such, those plays are still charted. It would have like been Pressured and not Unpressured without the hold, but for the QB s purposes, it s another rep without pressure. Let s learn from that rep. Depth of target measurements were taken from the line of scrimmage, not the QB s location at the moment of release. The horizontal region of the field (left, middle, and right) did have some give to it, relative to QB location. The hashes are wide in college: should a QB take a snap on the right hash and deliver a quick hitter just outside the right hash, I felt comfortable charting that throw as Middle. I hope you can forgive me Receiver direction also plays a role here. When it s tough to determine, the region into which a player is heading was more likely to get the call than the region from which a player was leaving. I chart s and Drops both quite strictly. I don t care if the CB didn t turn around on a 9 route the ball should never have been in a place he could have played on it in the first place. And WRs have a job to do, too! If you smack at least 1.25 hands on that ball, I don t care what acrobatics you did to get there throw some Stickum on and reel that puppy in. 12
13 13 Quarterback Data Sheets
14 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Josh Allen Redshirt Junior, WYO, born 5/21/1996 Games Charted Iowa, v. Oregon, v. Hawaii, v. Texas Utah Boise State, v. New Mexico, v. Colorado Air Force, n. Central Michigan Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % 5 8.2% 31.8% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 220 1, The Skinny Josh Allen s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement. On top of his poor decisionmaking as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 60.0% 60.0% 56.0% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 38.5% 34.5% 32.0% Adj. Conv. % 38.9% 35.9% 27.8% % 9.2% 9.1% 8.0% Charting by Region 7/14, 256 yds Accuracy:.714 Placement:.429 5/12, 156 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.417 1/16, 23 yds Accuracy:.375 Placement: /42, 435 yds Accuracy:.571 Placement:.381 7/19, 122 yds Accuracy:.684 Placement: /17, 169 yds Accuracy:.824 Placement: /30, 323 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement: /66, 614 yds Accuracy:.803 Placement: /24, 130 yds Accuracy:.917 Placement: /17, 69 yds Accuracy:.882 Placement: /40, 213 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement: /81, 412 yds Accuracy:.901 Placement: /12, 48 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.625 5/5, 37 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.7 10/14, 34 yds Accuracy:.786 Placement: /31, 119 yds Accuracy:.903 Placement: /69, 556 yds Accuracy:.826 Placement: /51, 431 yds Accuracy:.824 Placement: /100, 593 yds Accuracy:.79 Placement:.55 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.794 Placement:.524
15 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Junior, WYO, born 5/21/1996 Exceptional Data Josh Allen Dropbacks 285 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted Iowa, v. Oregon, v. Hawaii, v. Texas Utah Boise State, v. New Mexico, v. Colorado Air Force, n. Central Michigan Batted 5 1.8% Throwaway % Drops 10 Drop rate 4.5% Adjusted comp% 63.6% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 6.4% 5.5% 7.3% 16.2% 9.9% 1.5% 8.6% 7.7% 13.6% 7.7% 10.7% 20.4% 10.9% 7.7% 18.2% 8.2% 4.4% 13.5% 5.5% 2.3% 6.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
16 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 64% 40% % 61% 54% % 59% 45% 63% % 65% 40% % 65% 28% Att% 80% 20% Att% 77% 23% Att% 65% 9% 26% Att% 76% 24% Att% 84% 16% INTa % 5.1% 20.0% INTa % 7.1% 12.0% INTa % 7.0% 10.0% 10.5% INTa % 4.2% 20.8% INTa % 7.6% 11.1% First Read Beyond -37.5% -18.0% -28.6% 288.9% Josh Allen Redshirt Junior, WYO, born 5/21/1996 Games Charted Iowa, v. Oregon, v. Hawaii, v. Texas Utah Boise State, v. New Mexico, v. Colorado Air Force, n. Central Michigan In Contextual Data: Raw Out -10.9% -7.7% -20.4% 70.0% Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -24.3% 6.3% -9.1% -4.3% -55.3% -2.8% 43.0% 50.5% Looking Forward Top Quartile % Target Share Notable Measures % attempt Tight Window Adj. conv. % (3rd) Acc/place Behind LoS Acc/place Beyond LoS Acc/place Acc/place No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -39.3% -20.1% -36.3% 395.1% Bottom Quartile Drop Rate Adj. comp % YAC Acc/place Tight Window Place Out of Place Adjusted Platform Acc/place Move Platform Acc/place Beyond 1st R. Acc/place Under Press % -16.5% -15.2% Well, here we are: More numbers that don t like Josh Allen. Let us firmly entrench ourselves in our previous assertations; let us mire in that which is familiar, comfortable, and safe. This is the rub, the rigmarole, the rigid march of analytics and film. I m sorry: I just don t buy that. These numbers reflect film, not obscure it. They can help us determine the path to success for these young QBs, no matter how narrow that path may be. Let s draw that path for Josh. Ideally, Allen s given time to sit and learn the ins and outs of an NFL playbook, as his greatest weakness is his post-snap processing, which casts cascading detriments onto his decision-making and accuracy. Wyoming tape does not show much development in this regard, so a QB coaching staff simply must make a concerted effort on improving Allen s recognition, patience, and decisionmaking against a shifting defense. This is markedly harder to do when he s also, you know, starting. So sitting is huge. A situation like Patrick Mahomes last year is a good model, so the New York Giants with Eli Manning stand as the best avenue for Josh. HC Pat Shurmur is known for adapting his scheme to fit his players, so more good news for Josh. He ll be rolled out a ton, given 2 and 3 man concepts on half-fields with one-man keys, and he ll regularly have deep options (though it s arguable that that s actually bad for him). If Allen s to go in the Top-5, the Giants are his best bet. 46.0% 16
17 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Senior, UVA, born 8/17/1995 Games Charted (11): v. Indiana, v. Boise State, v. UNC, v. Boston College, v. Georgia Miami (FL), v. Virginia Tech, n. Navy Kurt Benkert Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % 9 5.9% 49.3% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 404 2, The Skinny Kurt Benkert s film illustrates a streaky QB that can really operate when he s in a groove, but fails to recover after small mistakes. A right-handed QB, Benkert favored the right side target-wise, but actually proved more accurate downfield (10+) to his left-hand side, a phenomena likely attributed to his penchant for exiting the pocket and throwing an accurate ball on the move. Benkert tends to create pressure when there is none, and must improve his ability to manage a clean/slightly collapsing pocket with subtle movements and downfield eyes. Despite having a high -velocity arm, Benkert struggled in general with deep ball accuracy and with tight-window throws, likely due to high-variance mechanics. Benkert currently projects as an Early Day 3/Late Day 2 investment who has starter traits if his inconsistencies can be ironed out, and his strengths focused. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 58.7% 54.5% 48.4% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 37.5% 27.3% 16.1% Adj. Conv. % 40.5% 30.3% 21.2% % 4.8% 6.1% 6.5% Charting by Region 8/36, 324 yds Accuracy:.722 Placement:.528 1/6, 51 yds Accuracy:.5 Placement:.083 9/24, 336 yds Accuracy:.458 Placement: /66, 711 yds Accuracy:.606 Placement:.432 9/20, 165 yds Accuracy:.7 Placement: /23, 215 yds Accuracy:.782 Placement:.435 6/16, 98 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement: /59, 478 yds Accuracy:.746 Placement: /52, 303 yds Accuracy:.923 Placement: /76, 426 yds Accuracy:.974 Placement: /81, 516 yds Accuracy:.938 Placement: /209, 1,245 yds Accuracy:.947 Placement: /27, 120 yds Accuracy:.96 Placement:.85 5/5, 35 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.8 34/38, 135 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.70 63/70, 290 yds Accuracy:.986 Placement: /153, 912 yds Accuracy:.844 Placement: /110, 727 yds Accuracy:.909 Placement: /159, 1,085 yds Accuracy:.862 Placement:.620 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.844 Placement:.587
18 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Senior, UVA, born 8/17/1995 Exceptional Data Kurt Benkert Dropbacks 474 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (11): v. Indiana, v. Boise State, v. UNC, v. Boston College, v. Georgia Miami (FL), v. Virginia Tech, n. Navy Batted 9 1.9% Throwaway % Drops 28 Drop rate 6.9% Adjusted comp% 68.6% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 8.9% 1.5% 5.9% 11.9% 1.9% 12.4% 5.0% 5.7% 4.0% 6.1% 7.9% 3.6% 12.9% 18.8% 20.0% 11.1% 15.7% 19.0% 6.7% 1.2% 9.4% 4.4% 1.3% 5.0% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
19 Games Charted (11): v. Indiana, v. Boise State, v. UNC, v. Boston College, v. Georgia Miami (FL), v. Virginia Tech, n. Navy First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 63% 53% % 61% 63% % 63% 37% 67% % 65% 43% % 71% 34% Att% 82% 18% Att% 83% 17% Att% 71% 9% 20% Att% 84% 16% Att% 75% 25% INTa % 5.8% 6.8% INTa % 5.0% 10.4% INTa % 4.9% 8.6% 8.5% INTa % 4.7% 12.7% INTa % 3.0% 14.6% Kurt Benkert Redshirt Senior, UVA, born 8/17/1995 First Read Beyond -16.8% -11.7% -12.3% 17.4% In Out 2.6% -4.5% -6.8% 107.1% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -40.8% 6.9% -26.6% -3.3% -31.1% -6.1% 75.7% 75.0% Looking Forward arative Measures Top Quartile Target Share % attempt Tight Window YAC No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -33.9% -20.4% -18.9% 170.6% Bottom Quartile Place Acc/place Target Share Acc Adjusted P. Acc Under Pressure Adj. comp % Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) Adj. conv. % (RZ) -52.0% -17.9% -24.0% 387.1% Kurt Benkert is the developmental project: the big-armed, mobile Day 3 QB who has as many good Sweet Christmas did he just do that? moments as he does bad Good gravy, did he really just do that? moments. Chase Litton is another guy in this mold. So is Josh Allen, but let s stick to Benkert. Mechanically, you see the inconsistencies with Benkert, which leads you to believe you can improve his accuracy (which isn t terrible, just not reliable). Mentally, you see the panic and often obstinance when his first read is covered, but you also see great processing on the fly, and wonder if you can somehow extrapolate that cognition into schemed progressions. Physically, you see some drop-dead gorgeous balls to the boundary and down the field, as well as the strength and speed to become a threat outside of the pocket. The best scheme for Benkert maximizes his velocity, mobility, and deep ball, while only allowing for as many progressions as he feels comfortable. West Coast with spread for familiarity with Robert Anae s system in Virginia fits the bill. If he fills out his trajectory, Benkert is only competing for a starting job in Year 3, so teams like Los Angeles (Chargers), New Orleans, and wait for it Cleveland make sense. 19
20 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Sam Darnold Redshirt Sophomore, USC, born 6/5/1997 Games Charted (14): v. Western Michigan, v. Stanford, v. Washington State, v. Oregon State, v. Notre Arizona State, v. Colorado, v. UCLA, n. Stanford, n. Ohio State Chartable Attempts TD YAC ,003 % INT INTa % YAC % % % 47.0% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 461 4, The Skinny Sam Darnold is young, talented, and a gamble. In Tee Martin s quickhitting shot game scheme, Darnold s lightning quick release (don t buy the narrative otherwise) and ability to release from wonky platforms helped him massively. Darnold also throws a very solid deep ball, accentuated by his ability to extend and create space downfield. But the lack of intermediate targets and accuracy are harrowing, as is the high incidence of interceptable passes and general shakiness under all contexts. When Darnold is on, there are Aaron Rodgers-esque flashes. But there are clear questions regarding risk management/decision-making, frequency of full field processing, and consistently beneficial mechanics. In short: there are the typical questions that surround a young quarterback. Rosen, Jackson, and Mayfield are all surer bets than Darnold, but his ceiling is right up there with the rest of the class. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 60.8% 59.1% 58.3% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 41.7% 40.9% 31.3% Adj. Conv. % 40.3% 37.2% 25.8% % 4.2% 5.4% 6.3% Charting by Region 12/35, 410 yds Accuracy:.686 Placement:.529 9/19, 314 yds Accuracy:.737 Placement: /46, 459 yds Accuracy:.761 Placement: /100, 1,183 yds Accuracy:.73 Placement:.55 13/24, 205 yds Accuracy:.833 Placement:.5 26/44, 460 yds Accuracy:.841 Placement: /36, 335 yds Accuracy:.694 Placement: /104, 1,000 yds Accuracy:.788 Placement: /49, 459 yds Accuracy:.959 Placement: /62, 505 yds Accuracy:.984 Placement: /71, 555 yds Accuracy:.944 Placement: /182, 1,519 yds Accuracy:.962 Placement: /30, 216 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.933 6/8, 48 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.75 34/37, 330 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /75, 594 yds Accuracy:.973 Placement: /138, 1,290 yds Accuracy:.877 Placement: /133, 1,327 yds Accuracy:.887 Placement: /190, 1,679 yds Accuracy:.863 Placement:.666 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.854 Placement:.644
21 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Sophomore, USC, born 6/5/1997 Exceptional Data Sam Darnold Dropbacks 539 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (14): v. Western Michigan, v. Stanford, v. Washington State, v. Oregon State, v. Notre Arizona State, v. Colorado, v. UCLA, n. Stanford, n. Ohio State Batted 6 1.1% Throwaway % Drops 25 Drop rate 5.4% Adjusted comp% 71.6% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 7.6% 4.1% 10.0% 9.6% 7.4% 10.8% 5.2% 9.5% 7.8% 4.8% 10.8% 7.9% 10.6% 13.4% 15.4% 10.8% 11.8% 13.0% 6.5% 1.7% 8.0% 5.1% 1.1% 7.7% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
22 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 67% 64% % 67% 61% % 68% 57% 63% % 68% 57% % 75% 27% Att% 87% 13% Att% 81% 19% Att% 73% 10% 17% Att% 80% 20% Att% 81% 19% INTa % 5.0% 4.9% INTa % 5.4% 3.4% INTa % 4.7% 9.1% 3.8% INTa % 4.9% 5.6% INTa % 2.1% 17.0% Sam Darnold Redshirt Sophomore, USC, born 6/5/1997 Games Charted (14): v. Western Michigan, v. Stanford, v. Washington State, v. Oregon State, v. Notre Arizona State, v. Colorado, v. UCLA, n. Stanford, n. Ohio State First Read Beyond -3.9% -11.3% -20.4% -1.6% In Out -8.8% -12.4% -8.0% -36.4% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -16.7% -8.4% -17.4% -11.9% -39.5% -4.5% 91.5% -21.0% Looking Forward arative Measures Top Quartile Acc/place Targe Share No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -17.2% -16.3% -22.9% 14.5% Bottom Quartile Place Adjusted P. % attempt Beyond 1st R. Drop Rate -63.8% -15.5% -27.2% 694.7% When drafting Sam Darnold, you shouldn t be too fearful of scheme: he can make every throw, he s demonstrating strides when reading defensive leverage, and he has the requisite traits (quick release, deep ball, mobility) to fulfill unique schematic demands. I m most excited by spread concepts, but then again, I m always excited by spread concepts in the NFL. That with which you need to concern yourself, however, is time. Sam Darnold lacks the polish and consistent game tape of a #1 overall pick, but if you choose to take him early because of his ceiling, you better be willing to do everything it takes to get him there and that means letting him develop, to the tune of his own drum. Sitting him isn t a must here it only is if Darnold needs it. Darnold, known for his gamerism even as a 19-year-old, may benefit most from a trial by fire. Start him early, let him have multi-pick games, let him fail on game-winning drives, let him learn through experience. He may prove fearful, stepping onto the field without full playbook comprehension and familiarity with the team then sit him. Either way, you should know you aren t winning with Darnold in But if you do it right, by 2020, you should be competitive in every game. And in 2021 and beyond...
23 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Luke Falk Redshirt Senior, WSU, born 12/28/1994 Games Charted (11): v. Montana State, v. Boise State, v. Oregon State, v. California, v. Arizona, v. Washington Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % % 57.7% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 459 2, The Skinny Luke Falk leaves Washington State a prolific passer, but I fear for his pro transition. Falk can deliver a pretty ball, and has the touch to drop throws in the bucket both in the middle of the field and on the sideline. However, he lacks the arm strength to vary velocity, and as such, simply cannot make all of the throws. Falk s pocket presence is inconsistent, and when paired with his average athleticism, tethers his game to the pocket and entirely handicaps him when pressured. Born and bred in the Air Raid, Falk regularly sits on his primary read for extended periods of time, relying on the spacing of his offense to eventually open a throwing window. Beyond the occasional impressive touch pass into traffic, Falk simply does not regularly demonstrate NFL skills, nor does he have raw NFL traits that are yet unearthed. Falk needs a wide-open offense to see any success, and projects at best as a backup in the NFL. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 55.7% 47.4% 62.9% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 42.6% 35.9% 24.2% Adj. Conv. % 47.0% 36.2% 23.9% % 9.8% 11.5% 8.1% Charting by Region 6/24, 177 yds Accuracy:.583 Placement:.271 9/19, 285 yds Accuracy:.895 Placement: /29, 451 yds Accuracy:.704 Placement: /70, 701 yds Accuracy:.714 Placement:.393 9/22, 143 yds Accuracy:.909 Placement: /37, 249 yds Accuracy:.676 Placement: /29, 138 yds Accuracy:.655 Placement: /88, 530 yds Accuracy:.727 Placement: /28, 140 yds Accuracy:.857 Placement: /93, 689 yds Accuracy:.968 Placement: /43, 233 yds Accuracy:.884 Placement: /164, 1062 yds Accuracy:.927 Placement: /44, 232 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /18, 113 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /75, 357 yds Accuracy:.987 Placement: /137, 702 yds Accuracy:.993 Placement: /118, 692 yds Accuracy:.864 Placement: /167, 1336 yds Accuracy:.898 Placement: /174, 967 yds Accuracy:.862 Placement:.635 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.826 Placement:.564
24 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Senior, WSU, born 12/28/1994 Exceptional Data Luke Falk Dropbacks 531 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (11): v. Montana State, v. Boise State, v. Oregon State, v. California, v. Arizona, v. Washington Batted 4 0.8% Throwaway 8 1.5% Drops 31 Drop rate 6.8% Adjusted comp% 72.8% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 5.2% 4.1% 5.9% 5.9% 9.5% 8.0% 4.8% 8.1% 6.3% 4.8% 8.3% 4.6% 6.1% 20.3% 9.4% 4.7% 23.0% 7.8% 9.6% 3.9% 16.3% 7.7% 3.8% 11.9% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
25 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 67% 62% % 67% 53% % 67% 56% 67% % 70% 48% % 76% 26% Att% 79% 21% Att% 93% 7% Att% 79% 12% 9% Att% 84% 16% Att% 80% 20% INTa % 6.1% 5.2% INTa % 6.1% 3.1% INTa % 6.3% 5.6% 2.4% INTa % 5.5% 8.0% INTa % 3.3% 16.1% First Read Beyond -7.9% -2.9% -2.1% -15.2% Luke Falk Redshirt Senior, WSU, born 12/28/1994 Games Charted (11): v. Montana State, v. Boise State, v. Oregon State, v. California, v. Arizona, v. Washington In Out -20.7% -22.7% -17.7% -48.7% Clean Adjusted Move Top Quartile Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change -17.5% -1.0% -8.7% -12.0% -21.9% -10.7% -12.1% -62.3% Looking Forward Notable Measures YAC % % attempt Behind LoS No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -31.0% -13.7% -28.0% 46.3% Bottom Quartile Place Beyond LoS,, and Acc Target Share Target Share Acc Out of Acc Move P. Place Under Press. Adj. conv. % (RZ) -66.1% -22.7% -23.9% 391.9% I do not think Luke Falk is a starting-level QB in the NFL. I sure would like to he strikes me as a solid guy but the questions regarding physical ability, poise, and post-snap comprehension are too vast to ignore. I wish every QB could throw a fade route like Luke Falk, who sure can drop it in a bucket but we cannot take that one route and call him accurate, or claim he has touch. Falk leans heavily on his first read, desperately hoping it opens and often force-feeding the route, which leads to high interceptable numbers under that context. When there s no space, Falk is quick to scurry to his checkdown, which inflates his Beyond first read numbers to illustrate synthetic progressions. He doesn t make decisions he panics and reverts. When we add all the other contexts into the mix, we see that Falk simply struggles to adapt to anything and everything. QBs who are good when everything is peachy keen are bad in the NFL, because NFL defenders are good at their jobs that s the short of it, I m afraid. Falk has nice intangibles and consistency to be a known backup quantity, but I can t envision him developing into anything more.
26 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Lamar Jackson Junior, Louisville, born 1/07/1997 Games Charted UNC, v. Clemson, v. Kent State, v. Murray NC State, v. Boston Florida Wake Forest, v. Virginia, v. Kentucky, n. Mississippi State Chartable Attempts TD YAC ,646 % INT INTa % YAC % % % 44.1% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 409 3, The Skinny Jackson is pure lightning in a QB bottle. Lamar, like many naturally gifted passers before him, tends to stray too far away from his mechanics, which leads to some ugly misses. But when categorizing a huge miss and a regular miss the same (uncatchable; poorly placed), we discover a key truth underneath our subconscious corrections and biases: Lamar is an accurate quarterback. His catchable numbers aren t amazing, no but his placement numbers are. When he throws, he is acutely aware of where the ball belongs relative to coverage. A sub-4% number speaks to this, as does the data into tight windows and beyond his first read. Lamar has more playmaking ability than any quarterback in this class by leaps and bounds, due in large part to his legs but don t miss it: this is an adept college thrower who can run multiple styles of offense, hit every throw, and is worthy of the #1 overall selection in any class. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 57.7% 60.3% 46.0% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 46.2% 46.6% 28.0% Adj. Conv. % 50% 52.2% 36.1% % 4.8% 4.1% 6.0% Charting by Region 4/19, 125 yds Accuracy:.632 Placement: /33, 552 yds Accuracy:.606 Placement:.636 7/20, 195 yds Accuracy:.7 Placement:.55 22/72, 872 yds Accuracy:.639 Placement: /19, 161 yds Accuracy:.947 Placement: /54, 556 yds Accuracy:.926 Placement: /34, 332 yds Accuracy:.765 Placement: /107, 1049 yds Accuracy:.879 Placement: /40, 412 yds Accuracy:.925 Placement: /66, 607 yds Accuracy:.909 Placement: /66, 481 yds Accuracy:.894 Placement: /172, 1500 Accuracy:.907 Placement: /29, 142 yds Accuracy:.931 Placement:.638 4/6, 36 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /23, 124 yds Accuracy:.913 Placement: /58, 302 yds Accuracy:.931 Placement: /107, 840 yds Accuracy:.878 Placement: /159, 1751 yds Accuracy:.855 Placement: /143, 1132 yds Accuracy:.839 Placement:.669 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.843 Placement:.704
27 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Junior, Louisville, born 1/07/1997 Exceptional Data Lamar Jackson Dropbacks 514 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted UNC, v. Clemson, v. Kent State, v. Murray NC State, v. Boston Florida Wake Forest, v. Virginia, v. Kentucky, n. Mississippi State Batted 9 1.8% Throwaway % Drops 44 Drop rate 10.8% Adjusted comp% 73.1% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 4.6% 8.1% 4.9% 3.3% 14.8% 5.2% 4.6% 13.2% 8.3% 4.3% 14.9% 8.9% 9.8% 16.1% 16.1% 11.0% 16.3% 12.9% 7.1% 1.5% 5.6% 3.8% 1.0% 3.3% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
28 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 62% 63% % 62% 62% % 66% 42% 60% % 67% 47% % 71% 25% Att% 78% 22% Att% 88% 12% Att% 75% 13% 11% Att% 79% 21% Att% 85% 15% INTa % 4.4% 2.2% INTa % 4.2% 2.0% INTa % 4.2% 1.8% 4.3% INTa % 3.4% 5.8% INTa % 2.0% 14.3% Lamar Jackson First Read Beyond 1.2% -11.7% -15.2% -48.6% Junior, Louisville, born 1/07/1997 Games Charted UNC, v. Clemson, v. Kent State, v. Murray NC State, v. Boston Florida Wake Forest, v. Virginia, v. Kentucky, n. Mississippi State In Out -0.6% 8.6% 15.3% -52.1% Clean Adjusted Move Top Quartile Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change -36.7% -9.8% -18.8% -0.2% -36.3% 2.3% -56.8% 1.1% Looking Forward Notable Measures Place Beyond LoS, 10-19,, Beyond 1st. Read, and Tight Window Acc/place Out of and Move P. % attempt Beyond 1st R. Drop Rate Adj. conv. % (3rd, 3rd (5+), and RZ) No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -30.1% -16.0% -21.2% 70.7% Bottom Quartile Acc/place Behind LoS % attempt Tight Window % There s a good deal of malarkey that circulates about Lamar in Bobby Petrino s offense. Here s what I know from the data: -64.3% -22.8% -15.4% 606.1% Lamar attempted the highest amount of between-the-hashes throws of any QB in this class, which inherently allow for more variance in coverage/more complex reads. Lamar had one of the lowest Target Share Behind LoS, so his offense wasn t chock ful o layups though he did mark high in Target Share, which speaks to the frequency of meshes, slants, and quick outs in Louisville. Lamar also had one of the highest marks in Attempt Share Beyond First Read, which speaks both to his willingness to hang in the pocket and progress through his targets, and his ability to compute on the fly from outside of the pocket. Markedly, Lamar had a low number Attempt Share Tight Window, which does allude to a spread-out offense with a wider margin of accuracy error. But in Tight Windows, Lamar was an adept thrower, which helps mitigate those concerns. I don t know how better to convince an NFL mind that this is a pro-ready thrower, than with these numbers. Lamar would thrive in any system, as he operates well from the pocket and excels outside of it as well, but rhythm throws with 3 or 5 step drops seem to help his footwork laziness. Anything with spread or West Coast ideas makes a ton of sense, in regards to maximizing Jackson s legs. The Jets, Giants, and Chargers get me pumped. 28
29 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Kyle Lauletta Redshirt Senior, Richmond, born 3/17/1995 Games Charted JMU, v. William & Mary Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % 4 4.6% 39.6% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement The Skinny The ball goes where Kyle Lauletta wants it to go. His release is lightningquick, and while his mental processing isn t as snappy, the combination of the two allow him to read and react to tight windows/defensive leverage very nicely. Mechanically pure, Lauletta generates all of his velocity from his lower half and through his core, which helps him remain accurate on high-velocity throws. However, he does not have an impressive arm, and labors to reach even yards down the field. Without a clean base, his velocity notably falls off, though he still remains competitively accurate when on the run. Despite being listed at 6 3, a high incidence of Lauletta s throws were batted at the line of scrimmage, which puts in question his height and release point. Lauletta struggles notably beyond his first read, in part due to a poor OL and lackluster WRs. Lauletta warrants a Draft selection and long-term look at backup in the NFL. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 57.7% 60.0% 50.0% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 26.9% 25.0% 25.0% Adj. Conv. % 26.7% 26.1% 33.3% % 7.7% 10.0% 0.0% Charting by Region 3/6, 76 yds Accuracy:.833 Placement:.583 2/6, 45 yds Accuracy:.5 Placement:.25 0/3, 0 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.667 5/15, 121 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.467 4/6, 78 yds Accuracy:.833 Placement:.583 9/13, 140 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.087 5/8, 146 yds Accuracy:.875 Placement: /27, 364 yds Accuracy:.926 Placement: /17, 79 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.912 4/5, 43 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: 1 11/15, 95 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement: /37, 217 yds Accuracy:.946 Placement:.851 3/4, 31 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: 1 0/0, 0 yds Accuracy: N/A Placement: N/A 4/4, 12 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.875 7/8, 43 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /33, 264 yds Accuracy:.939 Placement: /24, 228 Accuracy:.875 Placement: /30, 253 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement:.767 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.886 Placement:.747
31 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 68% 64% % 65% 77% % 68% 43% 76% % 74% 50% % 73% 47% Att% 84% 16% Att% 75% 25% Att% 68% 8% 24% Att% 75% 25% Att% 80% 20% INTa % 4.1% 7.1% INTa % 4.6% 4.5% INTa % 5.1% 0.0% 4.8% INTa % 3.1% 9.1% INTa % 2.9% 11.8% Kyle Lauletta Redshirt Senior, Richmond, born 3/17/1995 Games Charted JMU, v. William & Mary First Read Beyond -6.1% -23.3% -13.1% 73.8% In Out 19.6% -4.9% 5.5% -1.5% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -36.8% 12.4% -55.6% -11.3% -55.6% -2.4% % -6.3% Looking Forward Top Quartile Notable Measures Acc/place Beyond LoS, Behind LoS and Acc Target Share Place Beyond 1st R., Out of, and Move P. Acc/place Tight Window Adj. comp % No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -32.3% -11.4% -10.2% 195.5% Bottom Quartile % attempt Beyond 1st. R Adj. conv. % (3rd) Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) Acc/place Adjusted Platform Acc Beyond 1st R % -9.9% 0.1% 311.8% Lauletta can no longer be called the sleeper of the QB class he s far too known of a quantity, and teams are beginning to understand the vast potential with him. Perhaps this is good, as my evaluation will be less corrective on the perceived lack of hype. Lauletta s arm won t blow you away, no but it does not preclude him from NFL success. It is an average NFL arm, and the limitations thereof are mitigated by Lauletta s snappy mental processing and silky smooth release. When the ball hits the air, however, we see one of the most accurate passers in this class: under almost every context, Lauletta is a top quartile passer in terms of ball placement. Tight windows, on the move, outside of the pocket Lauletta s ball placement is virtually untouched! This is not just an accurate passer: this is a precise passer with the flexibility to operate under adverse conditions. Understanding scheme fit for Lauletta is accordingly attuned to these strengths/limitations likely the strongest QB in this class between the ears, I have little worry regarding Lauletta learning a system. However, the Erhardt-Perkins inspirations in Buffalo and New England would benefit from Lauletta s processing speed and placement, as would some West Coast mentalities that focus on the short game (Arizona, Denver). Lauletta is a plug-and-play starter, but a year to sit and adjust to NFL speed wouldn t hurt situations like New Orleans and Los Angeles (Chargers) make sense in that regard. 31
32 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Junior, Marshall, born 10/5/1995 Games Charted NC Cincinnati, v. Old Florida Atlantic, n. Colorado State Chase Litton The Skinny Chase Litton is worthy of your interest, should you have a spot to develop a QB behind your incumbent and aging starter. Litton can really sling it, but still demonstrates the ability to throw with touch down the field something that many cannon-armed passers lack. He regularly makes bucket throws when attacking the sideline, a handy trait that benefits him both from a clean pocket and on the move. Litton is at his best outside of the pocket and on the move, but on designed plays: not freelancing, as he s woefully risky with the football and has poor situational awareness. Despite never being the most accurate or consistent thrower, Litton does well in the face of pressure and can whip it from poor platforms and angles. The high quality flashes of arm talent, poise, and placement are there: hard work in a playbook with multiple progressions and a focus on ball security will elevate Litton from project to potential NFL player. Charting by Region Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % % 44.4% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 161 1, Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 56.9% 53.7% 56.5% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 44.8% 36.6% 26.1% Adj. Conv. % 44.8% 34.7% 24.0% % 8.6% 7.3% 13.0% 7/15, 266 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement:.5 5/7, 156 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.643 1/6, 23 yds Accuracy:.5 Placement: /28, 445 yds Accuracy:.821 Placement:.518 9/16, 203 yds Accuracy:.813 Placement:.563 6/13, 166 yds Accuracy:.846 Placement:.423 3/11, 45 yds Accuracy:.636 Placement:.5 18/40, 414 yds Accuracy:.775 Placement:.5 21/32, 147 yds Accuracy:.813 Placement: /17, 111 yds Accuracy:.882 Placement: /22, 122 yds Accuracy:.955 Placement: /71, 380 yds Accuracy:.873 Placement:.683 7/10, 43 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.7 3/3, 4 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: 1 7/9, 32 yds Accuracy:.889 Placement: /22, 79 yds Accuracy:.955 Placement: /73, 659 yds Accuracy:.849 Placement: /40, 437 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement: /48, 222 yds Accuracy:.813 Placement:.604 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.835 Placement:.597
33 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Junior, Marshall, born 10/5/1995 Exceptional Data Chase Litton Dropbacks 183 Scrambles 4 2.2% Sacks 5 2.7% Games Charted NC Cincinnati, v. Old Florida Atlantic, n. Colorado State Batted 1 0.5% Throwaway % Drops 12 Drop rate 7.5% Adjusted comp% 66.5% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 9.3% 4.3% 3.7% 20.2% 11.8% 1.7% 9.9% 8.1% 6.8% 15.4% 12.6% 3.4% 19.9% 10.6% 13.7% 11.2% 8.4% 9.3% 6.2% 1.9% 5.6% 3.3% 0.3% 2.4% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
34 Games Charted NC Cincinnati, v. Old Florida Atlantic, n. Colorado State First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 63% 33% % 59% 59% % 60% 38% 66% % 61% 53% % 63% 40% Att% 87% 13% Att% 80% 20% Att% 72% 10% 18% Att% 75% 25% Att% 81% 19% INTa % 7.1% 9.5% INTa % 8.5% 3.1% INTa % 7.8% 12.5% 3.4% INTa % 6.6% 10.0% INTa % 5.3% 16.7% Chase Litton First Read Beyond -47.0% -18.0% -24.2% 33.3% Junior, Marshall, born 10/5/1995 In Out 0.8% 8.2% 9.9% -63.4% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -37.9% 8.6% -3.8% 6.1% -22.9% 13.5% 61.1% -55.6% Looking Forward Top Quartile Target Share Acc Out of Acc Move Platform % Notable Measures No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -14.2% -7.8% -9.9% 51.3% Bottom Quartile Place Behind LoS Acc Target Share Behind LoS Acc/place Beyond 1st R. % attempt Beyond 1st R. Adj. comp % Adj. conv. % (RZ) -36.9% -16.5% -14.8% 211.9% Chase Litton isn t a starter tomorrow, in a class chock full of rookie QBs as close to starter-ready as we ll ever see. That will push him down the ladder, and he likely won t be selected any earlier than the fifth round. However, Litton s tape holds as much promise as Josh Allen s, and his numbers are more encouraging as well. If you subscribe to the idea that you can take big, strong, mobile QBs and improve their accuracy, then Litton is the man for you. An offense with moving platforms and a plethora of deep throws makes a ton of sense problem is, that isn t the most common offense in the world. If we focus on rollouts with levels concepts and half-field reads, we could easily work Litton into a spread system with Air Raid concepts (think New York Jets under John Morton, but with more movement of the pocket); if we focus on seams and streaks, perhaps you like Litton for an Air Coryell-inspired offense (think Bruce Arians Cardinals, but again, with a fluid pocket). Running play action with Litton is essential, as it will open up the offense for more boots/rollouts, and will help Litton move the safeties eye manipulation isn t yet his greatest strength. The value of the late-round developmental QB is a topic of disagreement. But if you buy the idea that you can make something out of a fifth-round guy, then Litton is worth the cast of the die. 34
35 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Baker Mayfield Redshirt Senior, OKLA, born 4/14/1995 Games Charted (14): v. Ohio State, v. Baylor, v. Iowa Kansas State, v. Texas Oklahoma State, v. Kansas, v. West Virginia, n. TCU (CCG), n. UGA Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % 5 4.5% 47.5% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 329 4, The Skinny Baker Mayfield s film illustrates an exceptionally accurate quarterback from the pocket, on the run, pressured, in variable arm angles, moving through his reads, everything who is only limited by his gamer mentality and occasionally, his height. Baker uses the entirety of his pliable frame to generate velocity. Mechanically, it allows him to reach 60+ yards down the field, but can occasionally lead to a slingshot motion that drives the ball high to its target. Baker s typically high placement is more prevalent when he cannot set a base, and especially when bodies obstruct his throwing hallway, in which he is forced into a high release point due to his smaller frame. It is not yet an issue, but it is certainly worthy of note. Beyond that, Baker s best trait beyond his accuracy is his marriage of creativity and arm talent. He can make wild, unscripted plays, and projects as a first-round quarterback in a spread/wco. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 60.9% 64.4% 75.6% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 44.9% 44.4% 46.7% Adj. Conv. % 48.3% 45.8% 44.6% % 11.6% 11.1% 2.2% Charting by Region 7/14, 313 yds Accuracy:.714 Placement: /26, 655 yds Accuracy:.846 Placement: /29, 451 yds Accuracy:.862 Placement: /69, 1419 yds Accuracy:.826 Placement: /19, 249 yds Accuracy:.895 Placement: /47, 618 yds Accuracy:.915 Placement: /30, 347 yds Accuracy:.967 Placement: /96, 1214 yds Accuracy:.927 Placement: /22, 315 yds Accuracy:.955 Placement: /46, 546 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /29, 184 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /97, 1045 yds Accuracy:.989 Placement: /20, 141 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /16, 120 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /31, 219 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /65, 480 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /75, 1018 yds Accuracy:.907 Placement: /135, 1939 yds Accuracy:.941 Placement: /119, 1201 yds Accuracy:.958 Placement:.748 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.924 Placement:.636
36 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Senior, OKLA, born 4/14/1995 Exceptional Data Baker Mayfield Dropbacks 397 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (14): v. Ohio State, v. Baylor, v. Iowa Kansas State, v. Texas Oklahoma State, v. Kansas, v. West Virginia, n. TCU (CCG), n. UGA Batted 5 1.3% Throwaway % Drops 24 Drop rate 7.3% Adjusted comp% 81.2% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 4.3% 7.9% 8.8% 7.5% 15.8% 10.8% 5.8% 14.3% 9.1% 6.0% 14.9% 8.3% 6.7% 14.0% 8.8% 7.6% 13.1% 4.4% 6.1% 4.9% 9.4% 3.4% 2.9% 5.3% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
37 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 77% 62% % 75% 71% % 75% 67% 77% % 77% 65% % 82% 41% Att% 78% 22% Att% 81% 19% Att% 64% 19% 17% Att% 76% 24% Att% 79% 21% INTa % 3.9% 7.0% INTa % 4.5% 4.8% INTa % 5.2% 4.9% 1.8% INTa % 5.2% 2.5% INTa % 3.1% 10.3% Baker Mayfield Games Charted (14): v. Ohio State, v. Baylor, v. Iowa Kansas State, v. Texas Oklahoma State, v. Kansas, v. West Virginia, n. TCU (CCG), n. UGA Redshirt Senior, OKLA, born 4/14/1995 First Read Beyond -19.7% -5.1% -12.2% 81.7% In Contextual Data: Raw Out -4.8% -4.7% 2.6% 7.7% Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -10.4% 2.4% 1.3% -1.1% -11.3% 8.3% -5.2% -65.6% Looking Forward Top Quartile Notable Measures Acc/place under all 5 contexts Acc Beyond LoS and to all four depths of field Place Target Share % attempt Beyond 1st R. % attempt Tight Window Adj. conv. % (3rd) (3&5+) (RZ) Adj. comp % No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -15.9% -3.9% -14.6% -51.3% Bottom Quartile Target Share -50.0% -7.5% -0.5% 235.8% Baker Mayfield is a starting NFL quarterback. Questions about his moral fiber and height are intangible, and must be addressed by individual teams. Questions about the freedom of Oklahoma s system, and Baker s ability to throw with anticipation, we can more readily address: Baker attempted as many Tight Window throws as anyone in this class, and delivered accurately, well-placed balls at a higher clip than any other quarterback. He can anticipate defenders spacing and range, and deliver the football accordingly. He certainly did benefit from Oklahoma s spread system he led qualifying QBs in % of YAC gained, as well but we can comfortably say Baker s system does not preclude him from hitting the tough throws. He may have to ingrain timing and drops (scheme-dependent, of course) into his system, but there is no reason to believe he will struggle to do this at all. Throw in the minimal-to-average drop-off in accuracy and placement when under pressure, beyond the first read, and changing platforms, and Mayfield can do it all. Baker projects best into a spread-style offense, of course but a West Coast offense fits him snugly as well. The Giants new system under Pat Shurmur makes sense, as does their brethren, the Jets and the Rick Dennison/Jeremy Bates duo. Teams running strict timing offenses should likely steer clear of Mayfield but he doesn t strike me as much of a Bill Belichick guy, anyway. 37
38 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Josh Rosen Junior, UCLA, born 2/10/1997 Games Charted (10): v. Texas A&M, v. Memphis, v. Stanford, v. Colorado, v. Washington, v. Arizona USC, v. California Chartable Attempts TD YAC ,641 % INT INTa % YAC % % % 45.7% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 396 3, The Skinny Josh Rosen is, in my eyes, the best QB prospect to come out since Mariota. Maybe Luck it s been a hot second since I watched Mariota. Rosen s game perfectly encapsulates the placement/accurate distinction: while his accuracy numbers run right around average for the top QBs in this class, his placement numbers (beyond the line of scrimmage) stay elite to all regions of the field. Rosen is a bit of a purist: he struggles beyond his first read, from the move platform, and outside of the pocket. But Rosen was limited by the Jim Mora offense, in which he attempted less than 40% beyond 9 yards down the field despite excellent anticipation, field vision, and ball placement. Still young (only 4 months older than Sam Darnold) and growing, Rosen has yet to hit his ceiling, and an improved offensive line and more advantageous target share to his skill set will unlock how dangerous a sniper he can be. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 58.5% 56.9% 54.4% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 42.6% 40.3% 26.3% Adj. Conv. % 42.4% 40% 28.1% % 4.3% 4.2% 1.8% Charting by Region 5/21, 123 yds Accuracy:.571 Placement: /20, 509 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement:.525 2/10, 78 yds Accuracy:.4 Placement:.5 18/51, 710 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement: /36, 442 yds Accuracy:.889 Placement: /47, 598 yds Accuracy:.894 Placement: /20, 267 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement: /103, 1307 yds Accuracy:.893 Placement: /49, 272 yds Accuracy:.918 Placement: /63, 508 yds Accuracy:.921 Placement: /45, 263 yds Accuracy:.911 Placement: /157, 1043 yds Accuracy:.917 Placement: /40, 265 yds Accuracy:.95 Placement:.8 8/11, 85 yds Accuracy:.818 Placement: /34, 175 yds Accuracy:.881 Placement: /85, 525 yds Accuracy:.941 Placement: /146, 1102 yds Accuracy:.870 Placement: /141, 1700 yds Accuracy:.901 Placement: /109, 783 yds Accuracy:.881 Placement:.706 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.868 Placement:.725
39 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Junior, UCLA, born 2/10/1997 Exceptional Data Josh Rosen Dropbacks 450 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (10): v. Texas A&M, v. Memphis, v. Stanford, v. Colorado, v. Washington, v. Arizona USC, v. California Batted % Throwaway % Drops 33 Drop rate 8.3% Adjusted comp% 74.7% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 5.3% 5.1% 2.5% 3.4% 14.2% 2.2% 9.1% 11.9% 5.1% 12.3% 16.6% 7.4% 12.4% 15.9% 11.4% 7.6% 14.1% 7.3% 10.1% 2.8% 8.6% 7.4% 2.4% 4.9% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
40 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 69% 56% % 69% 41% % 70% 54% 43% % 69% 54% % 62% 36% Att% 79% 21% Att% 91% 9% Att% 81% 12% 7% Att% 80% 20% Att% 83% 17% INTa % 1.6% 9.8% INTa % 1.9% 17.6% INTa % 1.9% 6.5% 14.3% INTa % 2.5% 6.4% INTa % 1.8% 10.6% Josh Rosen First Read Beyond -18.8% -12.7% -19.9% 512.7% Junior, UCLA, born 2/10/1997 Games Charted (10): v. Texas A&M, v. Memphis, v. Stanford, v. Colorado, v. Washington, v. Arizona USC, v. California In Out -40.1% -32.0% -35.5% 812.6% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -22.6% -38.9% -14.9% -30.1% -23.9% -37.5% 250.0% 666.7% Looking Forward Top Quartile Notable Measures Place Beyond LoS Target Share Behind LoS % attempt Beyond 1st R. Drop Rate No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -22.5% -17.3% -24.8% 154.8% Bottom Quartile Place Behind LoS Target Share Acc/place Out of Acc/place Move P. Acc Tight Window % Josh Rosen can play in any scheme. He is the best passer in the class. I don t know what you want me to say. Him good % -24.3% -15.0% 483.3% Let s say you run a West Coast spacing attack with an emphasis on deep shots, like Hue Jackson has in Cleveland: Rosen has the quick release and pinpoint accuracy to run the machine, and his deep ball is as deadly as anyone s. What if you re more spready, like Pat Shurmur has been in his time before the Giants? Rosen has excellent pre- and post-snap recognition, as well as excellent ball velocity, to diagnose and strike horizontal weakness. West Coast, like Jackson, with some Air Raid sprinkled in? Jeremy Bates and the New York Jets would be mighty pleased. Any coordinator worth his salt will recognize that they can run their system through Rosen, but should also sculpt their designs to keep him in the pocket/protected. Rosen does not need development, but I believe he will continue to develop in his crispness moving from his first read, and his willingness to push it deep. I think a steady but unthreatening veteran presence would benefit Rosen, both in terms of how to hold himself as an NFL QB, and in taking full control over an offensive system that will hopefully and finally maximize his wonderful strengths.
41 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Mason Rudolph Senior, OKST, born 7/17/1995 Games Charted (13): v. South Pitt, v. Texas Tech, v. West Virginia, v. Iowa State, v. Kansas State, v. Kansas, n. Virginia Tech Chartable Attempts TD YAC ,855 % INT INTa % YAC % % 8 6.9% 37.8% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 474 4, The Skinny Mason Rudolph presents an interesting evaluation and a tough riddle. He throws a very catchable football, but his ball placement is overestimated, likely due to the wide-open nature of his offense. Well-built, Rudolph has a strong arm that can reach 60+ yards down the field, and his greatest strength is his downfield accuracy and placement but again, one wonders the extent to which scheme/wrs assisted with those numbers. Surprising, perhaps, are Rudolph s numbers beyond his first read, outside of the pocket, and even throwing into tight windows there are signs of promise in all three, which indicate that Rudolph could indeed grow beyond his scheme. Rudolph s struggles with ball placement, zip, and offplatform limit him as a creative passer, but he certainly has fringe starting potential in a vertical-based offense with a strong offensive line. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 59.1% 56.6% 46.3% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 50.0% 44.6% 20.9% Adj. Conv. % 50.4% 46.8% 25% % 5.5% 7.2% 11.9% Charting by Region 13/30, 562 yds Accuracy:.8 Placement:.5 15/27, 590 yds Accuracy:.704 Placement: /39, 662 yds Accuracy:.744 Placement: /96, 1,814 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement: /64, 596 yds Accuracy:.843 Placement: /72, 968 yds Accuracy:.889 Placement: /39, 252 yds Accuracy:.872 Placement: /175, 1,816 yds Accuracy:.869 Placement: /28, 214 yds Accuracy:.821 Placement: /39, 296 yds Accuracy:.897 Placement: /48, 347 yds Accuracy:.938 Placement: /115, 857 yds Accuracy:.896 Placement: /42, 202 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /18, 99 yds Accuracy:.889 Placement:.75 24/28, 119 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /88, 420 yds Accuracy:.977 Placement: /164, 1,574 yds Accuracy:.872 Placement: /156, 1,953 yds Accuracy:.859 Placement: /154, 1,380 yds Accuracy:.883 Placement:.571 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.847 Placement:.570
42 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Senior, OKST, born 7/17/1995 Exceptional Data Mason Rudolph Dropbacks 525 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (13): v. South Pitt, v. Texas Tech, v. West Virginia, v. Iowa State, v. Kansas State, v. Kansas, n. Virginia Tech Batted 5 1.0% Throwaway 9 1.7% Drops 25 Drop rate 5.3% Adjusted comp% 70.0% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 6.3% 5.7% 8.2% 11.5% 12.0% 13.5% 13.5% 15.2% 8.2% 12.1% 19.7% 5.1% 5.9% 8.2% 10.1% 4.4% 6.0% 7.1% 8.9% 3.8% 5.9% 4.1% 2.0% 2.4% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
43 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 66% 61% % 65% 56% % 66% 60% 52% % 67% 56% % 77% 35% Att% 79% 21% Att% 95% 5% Att% 81% 14% 4% Att% 82% 18% Att% 72% 28% INTa % 7.5% 5.0% INTa % 7.1% 4.0% INTa % 6.5% 11.9% 0.0% INTa % 5.7% 12.6% INTa % 3.2% 16.3% Mason Rudolph Games Charted (13): v. South Pitt, v. Texas Tech, v. West Virginia, v. Iowa State, v. Kansas State, v. Kansas, n. Virginia Tech First Read Beyond -6.5% 0.0% -10.9% -34.1% Senior, OKST, born 7/17/1995 In Out -14.2% 1.1% -3.9% -43.9% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -10.0% -21.0% -7.1% -8.4% -3.4% -18.0% 84.4% -100% Looking Forward Top Quartile Notable Measures Target Share Acc Beyond 1st R. Acc Adjusted Platform % attempt Tight Window Adj. conv. % (3rd) Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) % No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -15.5% -9.2% -14.6% 122.4% Bottom Quartile Acc Target Share Place Move Platform Drop Rate % YAC -54.6% -13.3% 0.3% 402.2% Rudolph is one of the most scheme-reliant projections at the QB position in this year s Draft. In order to succeed as an NFL quarterback, Mason Rudolph must be given the opportunity to throw the ball deep, as his greatest strength is his accuracy 30/40+ yards down the field (and his placement isn t too bad either). Rudolph does better beyond his first read than most would have you believe, but that s less about his progression speed in the pocket, and more a reflection of his escapability and trust in his receivers to work on the fly. The tight window numbers also speak to this idea: Rudolph just has a really good understanding of the game. He doesn t panic; he knows his limitations; he maximizes his teammates. Rudolph has the mental fortitude and intangible aspects to immediately start in the NFL. But pressure really screws with Rudolph s finely-tuned machinery, and his ball placement to the short and intermediate is not what it should be to consistently make the layups and move an offense. Teams interested in Rudolph as a starter should be willing to incorporate spread concepts, with tons of option routes and pre-snap checks to open up the deep game. A willing investment in the offensive line is also a must. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh all could make sense. Any team, regardless of scheme, should see top-tier backup potential in Rudolph as well. 43
44 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Brandon Silvers Redshirt Senior, TROY, born 5/09/1994 Games Charted Boise State, v. Alabama New Mexico State, v. LSU, v. South Georgia State, v. Georgia Southern, v. Idaho, v. Texas Arkansas State, n. North Texas Chartable Attempts TD YAC ,762 % INT INTa % YAC % % 5 3.5% 57.7% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 397 3, The Skinny Brandon Silvers, I m afraid, does little to excite. He can really whip it, but a lot of his velocity results from a massive windup that was masked by wide-open throwing windows in an Air-Raid inspired offense under Troy HC Neal Brown. He doesn t model fantastic anticipation, which only furthers the issue of his slow release. If those heaters can still arrive in the narrow NFL windows, Silvers has some potential as a gun-slinging backup. But at present, Silvers struggles mightily against pressure, has very sporadic downfield accuracy, and often panics when asked to move beyond his first read. The majority of his production came in the form of YAC, and the majority of his interceptable balls came on force-feeds to his primary read. His sidearm mechanics and correspondingly wonky placement could work with massive strides in anticipation, processing, and poise, but it s tough to imagine those gains coming to fruition. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 54.5% 55.1% 56.8% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 35.7% 32.6% 27.3% Adj. Conv. % 39.2% 34.4% 30.0% % 5.4% 5.6% 6.8% Charting by Region 8/29, 291 yds Accuracy:.552 Placement:.397 4/12, 166 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.333 5/12, 170 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement: /53, 627 yds Accuracy:.62 Placement: /24, 157 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement: /38, 293 yds Accuracy:.816 Placement: /29, 192 yds Accuracy:.724 Placement: /91, 642 yds Accuracy:.769 Placement: /37, 249 yds Accuracy:.892 Placement: /48, 323 yds Accuracy:.958 Placement: /46, 346 yds Accuracy:.913 Placement: /131, 918 yds Accuracy:.924 Placement: /50, 382 yds Accuracy:.980 Placement: /26, 228 yds Accuracy:.962 Placement: /46, 253 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /122, 863 yds Accuracy:.984 Placement: /140, 1,079 yds Accuracy:.829 Placement: /124, 1,010 yds Accuracy:.895 Placement: /133, 961 yds Accuracy:.880 Placement:.643 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.815 Placement:.556
45 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Brandon Silvers Redshirt Senior, TROY, born 5/09/1994 Exceptional Data Dropbacks 430 Scrambles 5 1.2% Sacks % Games Charted Boise State, v. Alabama New Mexico State, v. LSU, v. South Georgia State, v. Georgia Southern, v. Idaho, v. Texas Arkansas State, n. North Texas Batted 4 0.9% Throwaway % Drops 31 Drop rate 7.8% Adjusted comp% 71.8% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 7.3% 3.0% 3.0% 9.5% 5.4% 5.6% 6.0% 9.6% 7.3% 5.1% 9.6% 6.3% 9.3% 12.1% 11.6% 8.2% 10.6% 11.3% 12.6% 6.5% 11.6% 12.5% 7.5% 8.3% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
46 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 66% 50% % 65% 58% % 65% 53% 68% % 69% 34% % 69% 33% Att% 90% 10% Att% 89% 11% Att% 74% 9% 17% Att% 87% 13% Att% 86% 14% INTa % 3.9% 0.0% INTa % 4.0% 0.0% INTa % 4.1% 5.6% 0.0% INTa % 3.5% 3.8% INTa % 1.8% 14.0% Brandon Silvers Redshirt Senior, TROY, born 5/09/1994 Games Charted Boise State, v. Alabama New Mexico State, v. LSU, v. South Georgia State, v. Georgia Southern, v. Idaho, v. Texas Arkansas State, n. North Texas First Read Beyond -23.7% -5.9% -9.3% % In Out -10.8% -12.0% -2.2% % Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -18.2% 4.9% -9.2% -5.5% -1.7% -5.6% 35.6% -100% Looking Forward Top Quartile Notable Measures Target Share Behind LoS Place Adjusted Platform Acc Tight Window YAC % No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -50.5% -27.0% -42.2% 8.2% Bottom Quartile Acc/place Beyond LoS Acc/place Target Share & Acc Under Press. % attempt Beyond 1st R. % attempt Tight Window Adj. conv. % (3rd) (3 & 5+) % -51.8% -10.8% -19.0% 695.3% Brandon Silvers represents an if only sort of evaluation. He has one of best arms in this class, despite the sidearm release: great velocity into tight windows, ability to throw with some touch down the sideline, good range. But everything else about Silvers just knocks his evaluation down, peg after peg: poor anticipation of defender s leverage into tight windows; panic under pressure with ill-advised scrambles and 50/50 prayers; high-variance ball placement, especially when attacking down the field; a lack of multiread concepts in Neal Brown s (super fun but) simple offensive scheme. Bring Silvers in to compete in your camp, especially if you have any Air Raid concepts in your playbook (NYJ? NOLA?). But don t expect much from him, and be excited if he warrants a spot as a QB3. It s tough to imagine enough development in every weak area for Silvers to become anything more than a camp body in the NFL.
47 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Mike White Redshirt Senior, WKU, born 3/25/1995 Games Charted (3): v. Florida Atlantic, v. Middle Tennessee, n. Georgia State Chartable Attempts TD YAC % INT INTa % YAC % % 2 5.4% 41.4% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 149 1, The Skinny Mike White checks the common boxes: big frame, strong arm, can move around a bit. I don t think he s as mobile as he thinks he is, which leads to a high propensity of silly sacks taken. That s my biggest pause with White s game: what s between the ears. White has shown the ability to manipulate coverages with his eyes, and often has a good pre-snap plan for the coverage shell/route concept. If his initial read doesn t open, however, White lacks the poise and processing speed to consistently get to a secondary read/make a wise decision. 95% of White s tape is two plays: first read/checkdown, or frantic, hopeless improvisation that often goes awry. White hits enough marks in the tools department to warrant a late selection and further investigation, but his decision-making must improve drastically, in my opinion, before he can develop into a reliable passer. Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 66.7% 57.1% 57.9% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 43.6% 35.7% 31.6% Adj. Conv. % 42.9% 37.9% 36.8% % 2.6% 3.6% 5.3% Charting by Region 8/17, 367 yds Accuracy:.588 Placement:.412 2/4, 49 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.125 1/7, 26 yds Accuracy:.143 Placement: /28, 442 yds Accuracy:.538 Placement:.304 5/11, 69 yds Accuracy:.727 Placement:.455 7/10, 111 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement:.55 3/6, 51 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.5 15/27, 231 yds Accuracy:.852 Placement:.5 14/20, 106 yds Accuracy:.85 Placement:.6 27/33, 253 yds Accuracy:.939 Placement: /17, 149 yds Accuracy:.941 Placement: /70, 508 yds Accuracy:.914 Placement:.721 8/11, 39 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.636 2/4, 22 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.625 9/9, 22 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /24, 83 yds Accuracy:.958 Placement: /59, 581 yds Accuracy:.780 Placement: /51, 435 yds Accuracy:.922 Placement: /39, 248 yds Accuracy:.821 Placement:.615 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.816 Placement:.58
48 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Redshirt Senior, WKU, born 3/25/1995 Exceptional Data Mike White Dropbacks 170 Scrambles 0 0.0% Sacks % Games Charted (3): v. Florida Atlantic, v. Middle Tennessee, n. Georgia State Batted 5 2.9% Throwaway 3 1.8% Drops 9 Drop rate 6.0% Adjusted comp% 73.8% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 11.4% 2.7% 4.7% 29.0% 3.9% 2.1% 7.4% 6.7% 4.0% 5.5% 8.8% 4.0% 13.4% 22.1% 11.4% 8.4% 20.0% 11.8% 7.4% 2.7% 6.0% 3.1% 1.7% 1.7% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
49 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 70% 59% % 74% 39% % 70% 53% 68% % 71% 59% % 74% 39% Att% 81% 19% Att% 81% 19% Att% 75% 10% 15% Att% 75% 25% Att% 81% 19% INTa % 4.2% 10.3% INTa % 5.0% 7.1% INTa % 3.6% 13.3% 9.1% INTa % 4.5% 8.1% INTa % 2.5% 17.9% Mike White Redshirt Senior, WKU, born 3/25/1995 Games Charted (3): v. Florida Atlantic, v. Middle Tennessee, n. Georgia State First Read Beyond -16.3% -16.4% -19.5% 148.3% In Out -47.2% -45.5% -45.3% 44.0% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -23.4% -2.1% -30.7% -0.3% -3.8% 11.8% 273.3% 154.5% Looking Forward Top Quartile Target Share Adj. conv. % (RZ) Notable Measures No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -15.7% -12.6% -15.1% 81.6% Bottom Quartile Acc Beyond LoS Place Acc/place Target Share Acc Adjusted P. Place Beyond 1st R. Acc/place Out of Acc/place Tight Window -47.2% -32.0% -42.2% 620.2% Despite the fact that he may try to play like something else, Mike White is a pocket passer who is heavily reliant on his first read. Admittedly, White suffered behind a terrible offensive line at Western Kentucky, and when he s freelancing some good stuff can happen but there s no in between. White s a fine quarterback when everything is under control, but once he s forced to adapt, he panics. The issue here is processing and even release speed. You can almost identify the various steps in the process for White: locate read, decide to throw, begin release, release. What should be instantaneous is delayed and segmented. Spread/West Coast systems will be the most favorable to White, who needs a quick game s big windows to survive. But it s difficult at this juncture to imagine Mike White as anything more than a practice squad QB when he first begins in the NFL, with the potential to win a roster spot at some point in his career.
50 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Logan Woodside Redshirt Senior, Toledo, born 1/27/1995 Games Charted (14): v. Nevada, v. Miami (FL), v. Eastern Central Michigan, v. Ball State, v. Northern Bowling Green, v. Western Michigan, n. Akron, n. Appalachian State The Skinny Logan Woodside or as I like to call him, the Baker Mayfield of the MAC. The parallels are warranted: both are unbelievably accurate, but there s a big dropoff in the placement numbers. Both have less-than-ideal arm strength, but mitigate those concerns with pure full-body mechanics to generate velocity. Both enjoyed a super-duper spread-y system that regularly reduced their process post-snap and regularly opened up their first read. And both are pretty scrappy though the Oklahoman likely takes the cake there with good conversion numbers in the clutch. Woodside s starting experience and system familiarity led to some exciting numbers under contexts like Adjusted Platform and Pressure, but he struggles to interpret second-level defenders and his ball dies in the air, especially when he tries to put some extra mustard on it. It s likely that Woodside s limitations as a passer will forever keep him out of starting contention, but he has the potential to stick as a backup in the NFL. Charting by Region Chartable Attempts TD YAC ,698 % INT INTa % YAC % % 4.44% 41.7% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 405 4, Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone Att Yards % 63.6% 60.9% 54.1% Accuracy Placement Conversion Conversion % 45.5% 40.6% 27.0% Adj. Conv. % 47.1% 44.4% 26.0% % 5.1% 7.2% 8.1% 15/28, 546 yds Accuracy:.821 Placement: /32, 421 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.5 10/29, 412 yds Accuracy:.690 Placement: /89, 1379 yds Accuracy:.753 Placement: /26, 255 yds Accuracy:.808 Placement: /54, 634 yds Accuracy:.963 Placement: /30, 359 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement:.6 71/110, 1248 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement: /41, 303 yds Accuracy:.976 Placement: /56, 473 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.75 41/57, 371 yds Accuracy:.930 Placement: /154, 1147 yds Accuracy:.968 Placement: /25, 118 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.84 3/4, 34 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: 1 21/23, 149 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /52, 301 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: /120, 1222 yds Accuracy:.908 Placement: /146, 1562 yds Accuracy:.932 Placement: /139, 1291 yds Accuracy:.878 Placement:.655 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.892 Placement:.633
51 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak Logan Woodside Redshirt Senior, Toledo, born 1/27/1995 Exceptional Data Dropbacks 469 Scrambles % Sacks % Games Charted (14): v. Nevada, v. Miami (FL), v. Eastern Central Michigan, v. Ball State, v. Northern Bowling Green, v. Western Michigan, n. Akron, n. Appalachian State Batted % Throwaway 9 1.9% Drops 35 Drop rate 8.6% Adjusted comp% 75.6% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 6.9% 7.9% 7.2% 13.4% 10.3% 10.1% 6.4% 13.3% 7.4% 6.3% 15.6% 8.8% 10.1% 13.8% 14.1% 7.4% 11.6% 9.1% 6.2% 1.0% 5.7% 2.9% 0.8% 3.7% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map
52 Contextualized Quarterbacking Benjamin Solak First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window Att Att Att Att Att % 69% 51% % 70% 37% % 69% 70% 43% % 70% 56% % 75% 33% Att% 87% 13% Att% 91% 9% Att% 86% 7% 7% Att% 78% 22% Att% 80% 20% INTa % 4.2% 5.9% INTa % 4.3% 5.7% INTa % 4.3% 3.7% 7.1% INTa % 4.5% 4.4% INTa % 1.5% 16.0% Logan Woodside Redshirt Senior, Toledo, born 1/27/1995 Games Charted (14): v. Nevada, v. Miami (FL), v. Eastern Central Michigan, v. Ball State, v. Northern Bowling Green, v. Western Michigan, n. Akron, n. Appalachian State First Read Beyond -26.3% -5.4% -17.7% 38.8% In Out -46.7% -16.1% -28.7% 32.1% Clean Adjusted Move Top Quartile Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change 2.6% -37.5% -2.8% -10.2% -6.8% -18.1% -13.6% 66.7% Looking Forward Notable Measures Acc Beyond LoS Behind LoS 20 Place Behind LoS Target Share Acc Beyond 1st R. Acc/place Adjusted P. Acc/place Under Press. Drop Rate Adj. comp % No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -20.0% -12.9% -14.3% -1.4% Bottom Quartile Target Share Behind LoS Place Tight Window -55.7% -17.1% -32.2% 940.0% Logan Woodside projects as a backup caliber QB in the NFL. A first-read heavy thrower with limited velocity, Woodside has shown the ability to keep a spaced-out, first-read heavy offense on track, and even thrives in the role of ball distributer and point guard. The difficulty with drafting Woodside late to fight for your backup role is the perceived cap on his development: Woodside already has three seasons worth of starting experience, and I m not sure his occasional first-read tunnel vision and struggle with sinking second-level defenders will ever go away. Woodside also puts his entire body into every throw, which helps mitigate his weak arm, but it s tough to imagine his ball getting any faster than it currently is. Teams with timing-oriented offenses will be interested in Woodside, as well as spread teams that give him similar half-field reads and pre-snap determinations as the excellent scheme the Rockets run. If Woodside makes big strides in terms of post-snap recognition and anticipation, he can give you serviceable spot starting ability in the long-term. Otherwise, he will struggle to elevate your team outside of your offensive scheme but hey! Nick Foles won a Super Bowl doing just that.
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