The Prospects. Enjoy!

Transcription

1 The Prospects I have listed 211 prospect profiles. Each player is graded based on their strengths and weaknesses, as well my expectations on what their pro career will be like. Players are then given a value based off this information. Their value is not a prediction on when a player will be picked by an NFL, but more of my own evaluation of when a player should be picked. Enjoy! 8

2 The Big Board Of the 211 prospects listed in this guide, I have ranked 160 of them as the ones I think that are draftable for the Falcons. Their values are not the same as listed in each profile, but what they are for the Falcons in terms of value. FIRST ROUND 1 DE Chris Long, Virginia 55 DT Marcus Harrison, Arkansas 109 OG Kirk Barton, Ohio St. 2 DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU 56 WR Harry Douglas, Louisville 110 DE Chris Harrington, Tex A&M 3 QB Matt Ryan, Boston College 57 WLB Ezra Butler, Nevada 111 CB Simeon Castille, Alabama 4 DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio St. 58 DE Jeremy Thompson, Wake Forest 112 TE John Carlson, Notre Dame 5 DT Sedrick Ellis, USC 59 DE Kenny Iwebema, Iowa 113 CB Jack Ikegwuonu, Wisconsin 6 OT Jake Long, Michigan 60 OG Eric Young, Tennessee 114 OT Barry Richardson, Clemson 7 RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas 61 MLB Vince Hall, Va. Tech 115 QB Erik Ainge, Tennessee 8 OT Ryan Clady, Boise St. 62 CB Terrell Thomas, USC 116 RB Justin Forsett, California 9 DE Derrick Harvey, Florida 63 CB Aqib Talib, Kansas 117 RB Rafael Little, Kentucky 10 MLB Dan Connor, Penn St. 64 WR Jordy Nelson, Kansas St. 118 TE Darrell Strong, Pittsburgh 11 RB Jonathan Stewart, Oregon 65 WR D.J. Hall, Alabama 119 DT Carlton Powell, Va. Tech 12 WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma 66 TE Dustin Keller, Purdue 120 OT Duane Brown, Virginia Tech 13 CB Reggie Smith, Oklahoma 67 CB Justin King, Penn St. SIXTH ROUND 14 CB Brandon Flowers, Va. Tech 68 RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida 121 FS Haruki Nakamura, Cincinnati 15 WLB Keith Rivers, USC 69 FS Thomas DeCoud, California 122 MLB Ben Moffitt, South Florida 16 RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois 70 TE Martellus Bennett, Tex A&M 123 OG Charles Manu, Nevada 17 CB Antoine Cason, Arizona 71 CB Chevis Jackson, LSU 124 DE Joe Clermond, Pittsburgh 18 TE Martin Rucker, Missouri 72 WR Will Franklin, Missouri 125 OC John Sullivan, Notre Dame 19 ILB Philip Wheeler, Ga. Tech 73 RB Dantrell Savage, Oklahoma St. 126 TE Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma St. 20 SS Kenny Phillips, Miami FL 74 OG Roy Schuening, Oregon St. 127 OT Tony Hills, Texas 21 CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida 75 WR LaVelle Hawkins, California 128 OT Pedro Sosa, Rutgers 22 QB Brian Brohm, Louisville FOURTH ROUND 129 DE Adamm Oliver, Georgia Tech 23 OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt 76 DT DeMario Pressley, N.C. State 130 SS Kevin Mitchell, Illinois 24 WR Early Doucet, LSU 77 FS Marcus Griffin, Texas 131 MLB Jeremy Leman, Illinois SECOND ROUND 78 OG Chad Rinehart, N. Iowa SEVENTH ROUND 25 OT/OG Sam Baker, USC 79 FB Owen Schmitt, West Virginia 132 TE Joe Jon Finley, Oklahoma 26 RB Tashard Choice, Ga. Tech 80 TE Adam Bishop, Nevada 133 RB Anthony Aldridge, Houston 27 RB Ray Rice, Rutgers 81 OG Drew Radovich, USC 134 SS Tom Zbikowski, Notre Dame 28 OG Chilo Rachal, USC 82 DT Keilen Dykes, West Virginia 135 FB Jacob Hester, LSU 29 OT Gosder Cherilus, Boston Coll 83 OG Mike McGlynn, Pittsburgh 136 MLB Nelson Coleman, Tulsa 30 TE Fred Davis, USC 84 WR Keenan Burton, Kentucky 137 DT Derek Lokey, Texas 31 QB Andre Woodson, Kentucky 85 OG Jeremy Zuttah, Rutgers 138 FB Jehuu Caulcrick, Michigan St. 32 CB Dwight Lowery, San Jose St. 86 SS Josh Barrett, Arizona St. 139 RB Andre Callendar, Boston Coll. 33 RB Chris Johnson, E. Carolina 87 QB Chad Henne, Michigan 140 RB Louis Rankin, Washington 34 DT Kentwan Balmer, N. Carolina 88 SS Jamie Silva, Boston College 141 RB Omar Cuff, Delaware 35 DT Trevor Laws, Notre Dame 89 OG Chris McDuffie, Clemson 142 WR Jason Rivers, Hawaii 36 WR DeSean Jackson, California 90 DE Wallace Gilberry, Alabama 143 WR Ed Williams, Lane 37 WLB Erin Henderson, Maryland 91 DE Chase Ortiz, TCU 144 DE Louis Holmes, Arizona St. 38 WLB Ali Highsmith, LSU 92 RB Jamaal Charles, Texas 145 OG Jordan Grimes, Purdue 39 WR Dorien Bryant, Purdue 93 RB Matt Forte, Tulane 146 TE Kellen Davis, Michigan St. 40 QB John David Booty, USC 94 OG Kerry Brown, Appalachian St 147 OC Drew Miller, Florida 41 MLB Curtis Lofton, Oklahoma 95 SS Jamar Adams, Michigan 148 OG Adam Kraus, Michigan 42 DE Chris Ellis, Virginia Tech 96 FS Jonathan Hefney, Tennessee 149 CB Darnell Terrell, Missouri 43 WR Mario Manningham, Mich. 97 WR Eddie Royal, Virginia Tech 150 RB Yvenson Bernard, Oregon St. 44 DE Lawrence Jackson, USC 98 DT Dre Moore, Maryland 151 FB Mike Cox, Georgia Tech 45 OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh 99 DE Darrell Robertson, Ga. Tech 152 TE Joey Haynos, Maryland 46 SS Craig Steltz, LSU 100 OC Cody Wallace, Texas A&M 153 OG Brandon Rodd, Arizona St. 47 WLB Xavier Adibi, Va. Tech FIFTH ROUND 154 SLB Brandon Miller, Georgia 48 WR Donnie Avery, Houston 101 CB Trae Williams, S. Florida 155 CB Roy Lewis, Washington 49 OC Steve Justice, Wake Forest 102 RB Chauncey Washington, USC 156 FS Brandent Englemon, Mich. 50 RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia 103 DE Johnny Dingle, W. Virginia 157 OC Bobby Byrd, Washington St. THIRD ROUND 104 CB Jonathan Zenon, LSU 158 OC Mike Pollak, Arizona St. 51 QB Joe Flacco, Delaware 105 SS Chris Horton, UCLA 159 WR Kenny Moore, Wake Forest 52 SLB Shawn Crable, Michigan 106 CB DeJuan Tribble, Boston Coll. 160 WR Darius Reynaud, W. Virginia 53 RB Mike Hart, Michigan 107 RB Allen Patrick, Oklahoma 54 MLB Jonathan Goff, Vanderbilt 108 TE Craig Stevens, California 9

3 QUARTERBACKS The much coveted "franchise" quarterback is a rarity in the NFL, at least by my definition. A franchise guy is a guy that plays at an elite level. In the league now, there are probably only a half dozen guys that fit this description, and a few more that are close but not quite. Most teams will simply have to make due to with a quarterback that's good enough to get them into the playoffs, but probably won't do so consistently. It takes years to develop a quarterback, with most players peaking sometime between their fourth and seventh years in the league. I believe it's ideal that quarterbacks do not play early in their career because of this. The "experience" they may gain doesn't seem to be really that valuable when you look at players that have succeeded that played in their first or second years versus those that played later on. In fact, most of the quarterbacks that weren't first round picks that have gone onto have success as NFL starters didn't play much until their third or fourth years in the league. Quarterbacks are difficult to scout. A variety of factors going into playing the position, and a flaw here or there can be easily exposed. But the things that stand out are arm strength, mechanics, accuracy, and decision making. Arm strength is important, but is often overrated. Teams consistently fall in love with big arms, but it's not necessary to have a big arm to have NFL success. It makes things easier, definitely, but the vast majority of passes in the NFL are shorter ones, so being able to throw the deep ball really is a luxury rather than a necessity. Zip is what I really look for in terms of arm strength, not really how far a guy can throw. As far as mechanics go, I'm not always referring to a throwing motion, but a lot of it has to do with footwork. Inconsistent footwork makes inconsistent throwing. Although some quarterbacks have had great success with very poor footwork and mechanics, Donovan McNabb is a good example of this. Accuracy is very important. You don't need pinpoint accuracy so to speak, after all Peyton Manning's accuracy is not that great. But you need to put the ball in the right spot for your guy to catch it. A lot of this comes with working with receivers over time and getting timing down. If the quarterback can't put the ball in the right spot, then how can you expect the receiver to catch it? Decision making is also important because if the guy doesn't make good decisions, it doesn't matter how accurate or strong his arm is. And while every quarterback makes mistakes from time to time, you want to look at the general picture. Does he force passes? Can he read defenses? What kind of decisions does he make when he's feeling pressured? What kind of decisions does he make in pressure situations? The term intangibles gets tossed around a lot, and it is very important in the NFL. What kind of leader is he and does he have drive and competitiveness and handle himself well when adversity hits. You have to great mental toughness to have consistent success in the NFL and this is what separates the great quarterbacks from the good or bad ones, not really things like arm strength, accuracy, etc. This year's class is a solid group of quarterbacks, but only one player among them is a potential franchise quarterback: Matt Ryan. Ryan grades very highly in terms of intangibles, but really is nothing special as far as physical attributes go. The rest of the class grades pretty well in terms of physical attributes, but not very highly in terms of intangibles. Brian Brohm is the closest thing among them to a franchise passer, but he's not one. Most of these guys will need plenty of time on the bench to develop into NFL quarterbacks. Playing any of them too early could be disastrous. But because of his intangibles, Ryan is least likely to struggle early on with adversity. Erik Ainge 6'6" 225 Tennessee Senior 40: 5.00 Pros: He has a good arm and is accurate on short and intermediate throws. Has good size and is comfortable throwing from the pocket. Has enough mobility to buy extra time outside the pocket, but he's not a threat to run. Cons: Doesn't get great zip on all his throws, and doesn't have a great deep ball. Mechanics get sloppy at times and he'll show poor footwork and throw off his back foot. Doesn't take his game to the next level when it matters. Overview: Ainge is what we call a developmental prospect. He shows enough skill to be able to compete in the NFL as a backup, but doesn't have a lot of upside. He's a good quarterback, but he doesn't wow you in any area. He grades out as average in most areas. NFL Forecast: Has the ability to stick as a reserve, but will need time and development in order to become a competent starter. If he can stick in a system for a few years, he may have some solid future prospects. But unless he can get that security to learn a system, he'll be nothing more than a career backup. Value: Ainge is worth a middle round pick, perhaps a fourth or fifth if a team has an eye on developing him as a reserve for a few years. John David Booty 6'2" 216 Southern Cal Senior 40: 4.82 Pros: Has the arm strength to throw down field and make all the throws. Excels in the short passing game due to his accuracy and zip. Generally makes good decisions. Does a pretty good job in the pocket, stepping up and side-stepping the pass rush. Shows limited mobility to avoid the pass rush and is capable of making some throws on the run. Cons: Shows little accuracy and touch on his downfield throws. After about 25 yards, his accuracy is gone. His pocket awareness declines when he faces heavy pass rush, and tends to hold onto the ball in these situations rather than throw it away. Overview: Booty is a good all-around passer that projects well to a West Coast-type system that relies on short and intermediate throws and rarely goes down field. He's smart and capable. NFL Forecast: If he goes to a West Coast team, Booty has good potential to develop into a starter in the first few seasons in the NFL. Otherwise, he may only appear to be a career backup. He's not a franchise guy, but a guy that you could develop for a year or two, and he might be ready to start. Value: For a West Coast team, he'd grade as a second round prospect. Otherwise, he's a third or fourth round pick for a team in another system. Colt Brennan 6'3" 218 Hawaii Senior 40: 4.85 Pros: Is capable in the pocket and has a quick release due to his threequarters throwing motion. Shows good heart and toughness, and carries a certain confidence and swagger about him. Has generally good accuracy and shows enough mobility to escape the pocket when he's in trouble. Cons: His throwing motion hurts him. It makes his arm strength and zip inconsistent. Seems to do his best work when he's throwing between the hashmarks, but because of the odd mechanics struggles throwing the ball towards the sideline. Doesn't throw the ball well down field either. Lack of size hurts and whether he can take the punishment of the NFL. Overview: Brennan is often labeled a system quarterback, and it's true that he benefited greatly from Hawaii's Run N' Shoot offense. In a pro offense, he would have struggled more. NFL Forecast: Brennan is a longshot as an NFL prospect. If a team is willing to put in a lot of work with him, he might have a shot. But 10

4 truthfully, he's probably better off going to the CFL for a few years, getting some seasoning there, and then much like a Jeff Garcia or Doug Flutie getting a shot down the road. Let someone else do the hardwork, and then you reap the benefits four or five years down the road. As of right now, there is no offense in the NFL that he'd be ideal in. Value: He's worth a late round pick, but not for a team that is hurting for depth. Alex Brink 6'2" 211 Washington State Senior 40: 5.05 Pros: Has decent arm strength and shows good zip on the shorter throws. Comfortable moving outside of the pocket and throwing on the run. Cons: Lacks touch and accuracy, especially on deeper throws. Needs to improve his mechanics as he doesn't set his feet very often due to his constant scrambling. Overview: He's a guy that could fit in a classic West Coast offense due to his mobility and ability on short throws. But he's limited mostly and just isn't as consistent and efficient as you would like. NFL Forecast: In the right offense, a West Coast system, he'd had potential as a decent backup. Otherwise, he doesn't have much of a future. Is the type of guy that could stick as a starter on a lower level of competition like the Arena League, but really needs to be in the ideal system to stick in the NFL. Value: For the right team, he might be worth a look in the late rounds, but otherwise an undrafted free agent. Brian Brohm 6'3" 232 Louisville Senior 40: 4.69 Pros: He has good arm strength and a quick release. Has good pocket presence and does a good job stepping up in the pocket to avoid the rush. Does a good job feeling pressure and avoiding it. Does a good job of knowing when to dump the ball off and when to stand in the pocket to be able to complete the pass. He has good accuracy and rarely misses a throw. Cons: Lacks mobility and he's no threat to get outside the pocket, if even to buy himself more time. His deep ball is a bit inconsistent and he'll occasionally force some passes. Suffered through multiple injuries during his career. Overview: There are really no major flaws to Brohm's game, at least physically. But the concerns are whether he has the "intangibles" to be a successful leader in the NFL. Showed some of that when he came back for his senior year, and despite having talent around him, clearly was the only Cardinal that played up to par if not beyond this year. NFL Forecast: Brohm is a question mark somewhat. He certainly has all the physical qualities you look for in a young quarterback and can develop quickly into an NFL quarterback. He'll work well in a variety of offensive schemes. If he's not forced to play too soon, then he should have a fine career. But if he's rushed, I'm not sure he'll be able to deal with the adversity early. Value: Brohm is worth a late first round pick, but isn't quite an elite prospect because of questions of whether he possesses the intangibles in enough quantities to succeed in the NFL. Dennis Dixon 6'3" 201 Oregon Senior 40: 4.60 Pros: Has good athleticism and does a good job making defenders miss in the open field. Shows good enough arm strength and shows some ability to make the deep throws. Cons: The majority of his passes lack any real zip, so while he can throw for distance, he doesn't do well on shorter routes. Accuracy and touch are inconsistent and are generally poor. Not sure if he can adjust to a pro-style offense. Lacks the size to take the punishment on the NFL level. Overview: Dixon really is a borderline quarterback prospect. He 11 possesses enough skill to get a look by most teams in camp, but besides his athleticism doesn't bring anything significant to the table. I'd rather convert him to a wide receiver, but hasn't shown that he has the build and toughness to stand up at that position either. NFL Forecast: I don't see Dixon sticking in the NFL, unless some team can make him a "slash" player like Kordell Stewart. He just isn't a good enough quarterback. Maybe there's a chance of him playing wide receiver, but even that's a long shot. He could be a star in other leagues such as the CFL or one of the upstart leagues like the UFL or AAFL, but his game doesn't project to the NFL. Best case scenario would be some team allowing him to sit on the bench for a number of years and he might be able to become a decent backup. Value: Teams will fall in love with his athleticism. But he's a seventh round pick at best. Joe Flacco 6'6" 236 Delaware Senior 40: 4.80 Pros: Has excellent arm and all the size you want in an NFL prospect. Shows great zip as he's able to thread the needle and put balls into tight spots. Accuracy isn't great, but generally good. Shows good touch as well on all his passes, whether short or deep. Deceptively mobile, but won't be a threat to run outside the pocket. Cons: Doesn't do a great job reading defenses and tends to lock onto receivers, waiting for them to get open. His release can get a bit long, which could lead to more sacks. Overview: He's about as solid as you can get just based off the physical tools. Might have the best upside of anybody in this class just based off that alone. But he needs more polish, and only has two years of starting experience, and it was on the Division I-AA (or FCS) level. It also doesn't help that he plays in a spread offense, so adjusting to a pro-style offense will be a feat. NFL Forecast: Flacco is another developmental prospect, that is going to need time to develop and learn. He simply needs more experience and if he can sit for two or more seasons before he's asked to be the man, he has a solid outlook. But if he's rushed early, I'm not sure he'll be able to cope. Value: Flacco is a middle rounder, but his physical tools will coax some team to draft him in the second round. But he's really a third round pick when all is said and done. Matt Flynn 6'2" 229 LSU Senior 40: 4.79 Pros: He has a good arm, good enough to make all of the throws. Has a great passion and fire for the game. Shows good mobility and is actually a decent threat to do something with his legs. Cons: His accuracy and touch are inconsistent. Doesn't get great zip on all of his throws and his footworks and mechanics get sloppy. Doesn't make great decisions and will force too many passes. Lacks experience. Overview: Flynn is the classic case of a player that lacks experience and most of his problems are obvious from it. He only started 1 year at LSU, and just simply needs more experience. NFL Forecast: If he can sit for a few years and learn an offense, he might have a chance to become a capable starter. But he really needs more experience, and working as a backup for three or four years would do him wonders. You like his fire and athletic potential, and if he can develop his game, he could be something pretty good in the NFL down the road. Value: He's a middle round pick, for a team looking for a backup that is willing to sit him for some time. He's got good long-term growth potential, but should only be drafted by a team that has some security at this position.

5 Chad Henne 6'3" 228 Michigan Senior 40: 4.96 Pros: Has very good arm strength and shows good ability on the deep throws. Has a lot of experience, starting over 40 games in his college career. Cons: Has poor decision making and consistency. His accuracy is also inconsistent. Forces way too many passes and makes too many bad decisions under pressure. Struggled throughout his career in key situations. Mobility is limited. Overview: You like Henne because he comes from a big program and has a big arm. But when you really look at him, there isn't much else to him. This gives him a lot of upside, but only if you are able to refine the rest of his game. NFL Forecast: Henne is the type of player that can develop into a solid starter, but only if he's allowed to sit and learn early on. He is too much like Rex Grossman at this point in his career, and if he's able to ride out this phase of his career, he could be a quality starter. Value: Henne is a middle round pick. He has some long-term upside as a starter, but is still too raw to merit an early pick. Sam Keller 6'4" 237 Nebraska Senior 40: 4.91 Pros: Shows good toughness and a bit of a moxy about him that you like. Shows good on-field leadership. Is an effective passer on the short and intermediate routes. Cons: Will need work on his throwing motion and mechanics as he tends to push the ball. This hurts his arm strength and he's incapable of making all the throws. Overview: Keller didn't get a ton of playing time bouncing from Arizona State to Nebraska, and he's basically a developmental guy. If you could tinker with his mechanics, he could become a competent NFL starter. NFL Forecast: I don't see a very bright future. Unless he goes to a team that doesn't throw deep, he doesn't have much of a chance of sticking, despite him possessing the intangibles. Frankly, I see him as a guy that could excel in Arena Football, and that may be the best course of action for him. Get some seasoning there and try his hand at the NFL further down the road. If does come to the NFL, sit him for three years, tinker with his mechanics and hope maybe he becomes more than a No. 2. Value: Might be worth a late round pick as a long-term developmental guy, but for the most part I'd let the AFL do all the hard work for me. Ben Mauck 6'1" 205 Cincinnati Senior 40: 4.67 Pros: Has good arm and good mobility in escaping the pocket. Does a great job keeping his eyes downfield when he's outside the pocket looking for the open receiver. Does a good job making throws on the run. Shows good accuracy for the most part. Cons: Forces too many passes, and struggles when confined to the pocket. Lack of height hurts him when seeing throwing lanes. There are concerns about the long-term health of his throwing shoulder, and needs to have surgery that might be able to correct the problem if possible. Overview: You like Mauck's moxy. He's a gunslinger that will keep the play alive with his scrambling ability. But potential issues with his shoulder and not being comfortable in the pocket will make him an NFL longshot. NFL Forecast: If his health is OK'd by doctors and he plays in a system that allows him to scramble, then he has a chance to make it in the NFL. Otherwise, he's a longshot. I think he could go north as he has a game similar to Doug Flutie and perhaps return to the States at a later point in his career. Right now, is just a backup at best. Value: Might be worth a late round pick if the above requirements are met. Otherwise, he's undrafted. 12 Anthony Morelli 6'3" 232 Penn State Senior 40: 5.08 Pros: Has pretty good arm strength. Has good size and good enough mobility to escape pocket and buy himself more time on his throws. Cons: Makes poor decisions and has inconsistent accuracy. His touch needs work and he forces way too many passes. Overview: He has good physical traits, but just needs to develop more of the mental aptitude for the next level. NFL Forecast: Projects as a backup at best. And he'll need plenty of time to develop into that type of player. He's another long-term developmental type that will likely have to go to the Arena Leagues if he wants to play professional football. Value: An undrafted free agent. Just too inconsistent to draft. Matt Ryan 6'5" 222 Boston College Senior 40: 4.92 Pros: Has good arm strength and can make all the throws. Shows good pocket presence and shows good mobility. Can pick up yardage with his legs when the play breaks down. Makes good use of pump fakes and has good zip on most of his passes. Is very accurate and does a good job going through progressions and scanning the field. Shows excellent onfield leadership and toughness to make the plays when it matters. Cons: Will force a few throws from time to time, particularly when his team is pressing. Will hold onto the ball often looking for the play rather than throwing it away. Also when he is moving around in the pocket, doesn't consistently keep his eyes downfield and will focus on the pass rush and an escape route rather than feeling them intuitively like many of the top guys do. His mechanics can get sloppy at times, and he'll throw off his back foot. Needs more work on his touch and accuracy on his deep throws. Overview: Ryan is a complete passer, although his arm doesn't wow you. He's a guy that will fit well in a West Coast offense. Does a good job going through progressions and generally makes the smart decision with the ball. Does a good job bouncing back from adversity and plays his best football in the fourth quarter. NFL Forecast: He projects very well to the NFL, and should have the mental toughness and ability to take the reins of a team early. Like all he needs a bit more polish, but he's one of the more polished passers to come out the past few years. May never be a super star, but the type of guy that will consistently keep his team as a contender. Shows excellent leadership. Value: He's a first round pick, and one of the 10 best prospects in this draft. Definitely worth a Top 5 pick for a team looking for a quarterback. Paul Smith 6'2" 208 Tulsa Senior 40: 5.02 Pros: Shows good arm strength and ability to throw the long ball. Has good mobility to escape the pocket and does well when he throws on the run. A gunslinger-type that will be able to make plays with his arm. Also shows he 's an effective pooch punter. Cons: Needs more work on his touch on the deep pass. His delivery and release can be elongated. His mechanics and footwork can get sloppy too often and doesn't always set his feet even when he's not under pressure. This hurts his accuracy as many passes sail on him. Overview: Smith is the gunslinger type that is going to make plays when you didn't think it was possible, and make mistakes when you didn't think it was possible. But if you like the Brett Favre-type passer, then Smith is your man. NFL Forecast: He needs a ton of polish, but has the physical ability and "don't take any prisoners" attitude that will endear him on some level to coaches. Just not sure if it'll be NFL guys. If a team is patient with him in refining his mechanics, he does possess starting potential. If not, then he'll be working in the Arena Leagues before long. Value: For a team that won't pressure him into anything early on, he'd

6 be worth a middle round pick. Otherwise, he's a late rounder. Adam Tafralis 6'1" 224 San Jose State Senior 40: 4.68 Pros: Has necessary arm strength to compete in the NFL. And has good size. Shows good toughness and is not afraid to take a hit in order to make the throw. Cons: Needs work on his mechanics and fundamentals as they get sloppy at times. Inconsistent with his accuracy and overall game. Overview: People will like him because of his arm and toughness, but besides that there isn't much to write about here. He needs a lot of polish. NFL Forecast: If he's given time to develop, he might be a decent No. 2, but that's about it. He just lacks the upside to be a starter on the next level. But he is the type of player that will enter camp with low expectations and surprise a few people. I'm just not sure he'll be able to string that along for multiple summers and turn it into an NFL career. Value: An undrafted guy. Worth a look in camp, but don't waste a pick on him. Andre Woodson 6'4" 227 Kentucky Senior 40: 4.86 Kyle Wright 6'4" 220 Miami (FL) Senior 40: 4.82 Pros: Has good enough arm strength to make it in NFL. Has good enough mobility to escape pocket and buy himself more time to throw. But not a threat to make plays with his feet. Cons: He's very inconsistent and he'll make some poor throws and bonehead decisions way too often. Seems to suffer at times from lacking confidence. Overview: Wright is a project definitely. But I've seen him play, and seen him play very well for multiple drives, but in the very same game make some decisions and throws that make your head spin. He's had four different offensive coordinators at Miami, which has prevented him from getting comfortable with anybody's system. If he can be given time to get comfortable in one system, he has a lot of upside. NFL Forecast: Wright needs to go somewhere and disappear holding the clipboard for three or four years. If he can do that, he has the potential to be a sleeper and solid starter in the NFL. I like his upside, but some team just needs to give him a lot of patience. Value: Wright is definitely worth a late round pick as a project/sleeper type. Pros: Has excellent size and arm strength. Shows good leadership, toughness, and poise for the most part. Cons: Accuracy is lacking. His release is overly long. This coupled with pocket awareness that breaks down will lead to many sacks. Doesn't make great decisions when under duress. Overview: Woodson has all the measurables you want in a No. 1 pick, but he needs some fine tuning. He's got a lot of upside, and after a year or two could be a very solid starter in the NFL. NFL Forecast: I like his upside, but I don't think he's capable of making an immediate impact. Needs more polish and there will be those that want to correct his mechanics and release. Woodson isn't a franchise passer however. He's the type of guy that if he has a good supporting cast around him, he'll have lots of success, but if not, then he's not the type that is really going to elevate the play of his teammates to a significant degree. Value: Woodson is worth a second round pick for a team that wishes to develop a future starter, but will give him a year or two before they ask too much of him. 13

7 RUNNING BACKS Long gone are the days where running backs routinely carried the ball times per game. But now NFL teams have wised up and know that they need more than one back to have success in this league. This is why it's no longer necessary for a successful NFL back to meet the prototype size requirements. A smaller "scatback" can have success in this league, assuming he is sharing the load with someone else. Running back is one of those positions that's relatively easy to scout. Speed, power, and vision are really all that are required for NFL success. Vision really is the most important of the three. A back that can see holes developing, and set up defenders is going to be more successful because he'll be able to get the most yardage and also suffer the least amount of direct hits. This year's draft class is as strong as any in recent memory. There are three bonafide first rounders in Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, and Rashard Mendenhall (plus Felix Jones who does not appear here). And then there are a number of other backs that while may not be "feature" backs (can't carry the load times in the NFL), can certainly be lead backs or complementary backs in this league, and be very successful doing it. You may not get that much coveted feature back after the first round, but you are certainly going to find plenty of backs that are like Maurice Jones-Drew and Chester Taylor that are going to be integral parts of team's ground games. Players like Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Tashard Choice won't be able to do it all by themselves, but can certainly offer significant upgrades to team's ground attacks. And teams should be able to find quality complementary backs like Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Justin Forsett, Dantrell Savage, etc. well into the fourth round as well. Many of these players had they come out in the past few drafts would be second round picks, but this year will now be fourth rounders. Anthony Aldridge 5'9" 177 Houston Senior 40: 4.36 Pros: Shows good burst and dangerous in the open field. Has excellent homerun speed with the threat to take every play the distance. Is a good receiver with the potential to play in the slot. Has potential as a return threat. Cons: His vision isn't great. Is a tweener that doesn't fit either running back or receiver. Overview: He's a tweener the lacks the size to be more than a part-time player at running back, but also needs a lot more polish as a receiver. Because of this, he won't fit many teams systems. The type of guy that will be most effective on screens, sweeps, and reverses, but outside that you don't know. Dangerous player for matchups who when on the field you want the ball in his hands. Due to his size, I wanted to grade him as a receiver, but I think he's a better running back at this point. Although he may have greater long-term potential at wideout. NFL Forecast: If Aldridge goes to a team that uses him mostly as a receiver out of the backfield, I think he'll have success. Has that Westbrook/Reggie Bush-type of ability in that role. But that makes him a very finite niche player, which means only a handful of teams could really use him well. Where I think he'll potentially make his biggest NFL impact is as a kickoff returner. If he isn't able to show something there, then I think his chances on the next level are low. I know if I drafted him, I'd definitely have a package for him in each game, where he may only get 5 or so touches, but I'd be fairly confident that on at least one he could take it the distance. As a receiver, I think he has great potential in the slot, but he'll be a work in progress there. If a team is willing to give him time to develop, he could be dangerous. Value: For a team that has the ideal niche for him, he'd make a good fourth round pick. Otherwise, he's a late rounder that may not find a home until round six or later. Yvenson Bernard 5'9" 204 Oregon State Senior 40: 4.73 Pros: Has good quickness and dangerous in space to make players miss. Shows good vision and good speed. Shows toughness and won't shy away from contact. Cons: He's undersized and has had recent issues with injuries. Lacks the power to break tackles. Overview: Bernard is a Warrick Dunn-type player. A better football player than athlete. His running style prevents him from taking too much punishment, but he's not going to be able to get the tough yards because he won't run over anybody. He'd make a nice change of pace back in the NFL. Runs faster than he times. NFL Forecast: I think Bernard could be a solid third down back on the next level, but I just don't know if he's good enough to be a lead back. He's cat quick, but that's all he really has going for him. I would compare to a lesser version of Dunn. I think behind a zone-blocking line, he'd be a pretty good player. In order to extend his NFL career, he'll need to become a Kevin Faulk-type player that excels in the passing game. Value: Bernard is worth late round considerations, such as the sixth round. Andre Callender 5'11" 198 Boston College Senior 40: 4.43 Pros: Has nice burst and a good north-south runner. Shows good toughness and power despite lack of size. Runs with good balance and low to the ground. His best strength is his hands, as he's a very polished receiver. Solid outlet receiver in the flat and does a good job after the catch on screens. Cons: Has only average speed. Doesn't have great size, nor is he elusive in the open field. Overview: He was Matt Ryan's security blanket at BC. Might be an effective runner in a zone-blocking scheme, but is a purely a straightline runner. NFL Forecast: He'll never be a starter, but could be a very effective reserve much like Kevin Faulk. The type of guy that could come off the bench and catch 50 passes in a season. But will probably never be more than a runner that you'd give the ball more than 5 times a game. He should be a solid third down back that will be able to stick in the league for even longer if he proves he's an effective special teamer. Value: If judged purely as a runner, he'd only be a seventh rounder at best, but because of his receiving skills, it could push him into round six. Jamaal Charles 5'11" 199 Texas Junior 40: 4.38 Pros: Shows good patience and vision. Has excellent long speed to break big plays. Solid north-south runner. Cons: Dances too much looking for a gap and big play. Isn't going to break very many tackles. While he'll make some people miss in the open field, he's not very shifty. Overview: Charles is basically a great speed back that in a zoneblocking scheme where he can make one cut and go, he'd be very good. But if he's asked to pick up the tough yards between the tackles or try to make people miss in the open field, he won't be as effective. NFL Forecast: In the right scheme he'd be a good lead back. But he doesn't have the frame to take too much punishment. He's a carry guy in that type of offense, but in any other he's just a change of pace guy that will be used to spark an offense with a long run. Value: A middle round pick. For a team like Denver, he'd be worth a look in Round 3, but probably more of a fourth round back. 14

8 Tashard Choice 5'11" 208 Georgia Tech Senior 40: 4.52 Pros: Shows good vision, patience, and balance. Has good burst and is quick in and out of his cuts. Has good enough speed to take it the distance, and the power to break tackles. Runs well between the tackles. Cons: Needs work in the passing game. Needs to become a better receiver and is only so-so in pass protection. Overview: Choice is a solid inside runner that doesn't overwhelm you with his speed or power, but has ample of both. He's what I'd call a solid all-around running back. NFL Forecast: Choice is what I'd call a low-end feature back. He's good enough to be the guy to get 20 carries for a team, but it depends on if he's in the right scheme. Would be an ideal back behind a zoneblocking line, making good use of cutback lanes. If he were to go to a team like that, I'm sure he'd be a 1000-yard rusher. Otherwise, he's probably going to be a guy that is good enough to get 15 or so carries as a lead back, but would probably need to split some of those carries with another player. Value: A good value in Round 2, especially for a team with a zone blocking line. Omar Cuff 5'10" 195 Delaware Senior 40: 4.55 Pros: Shows good speed but has excellent burst. A solid north-south runner that runs low to the ground with good balance. Cons: Lacks size and power, although he'll run through some arm tackles. Lacks shiftiness, so he won't make people miss. Overview: Due to average size and speed, Cuff will be a player that is overlooked. But what he lacks in physical measurements, he makes up for with vision and burst. He'd be a very good fit in Denver or in any scheme that allows him to make one cut and go. NFL Forecast: Unless he plays behind a line like Denver's, I doubt he'll ever be a starter. But he's one of those guys that projects well as a backup. He could be a late round surprise and be a very productive backup on the next level. Value: A nice pickup as a sixth or seventh rounder. Justin Forsett 5'8" 191 California Senior 40: 4.62 Pros: Shows good speed and is a dangerous and elusive runner in the open field. Shows good potential as a receiver. Lacks: Lacks size and power. Doesn't have homerun speed. Only an adequate blocker. Overview: He has enough strength and size to make it in the NFL. But he is basically a classic Golden Bear running back in that he'll be a third down back more so than a potential starter. Doesn't really stand out in any one area besides quickness. NFL Forecast: Could have a prosperous NFL career as a backup and third down back. But he doesn't do anything particularly well enough to think he'll be a starter at some point. He has a chance to be a Kevin Faulk-type of player that contributes mostly as a receiver, as opposed to a runner. He's capable enough to be a 5-10 carry back, but he wouldn't be as effective with a higher workload. Value: He's a fourth or fifth round prospect. Matt Forte 6'1" 221 Tulane Senior 40: 4.46 Pros: A solid north-south runner. Uses the speed he has to build up momentum, and is a dangerous runner once he gets to the second level as he's too much for defensive backs to handle. Has good power and shoes enough quickness to sidestep defenders. Shows good hands as a receiver. 15 Cons: Lacks speed to take it the distance. Doesn't have great burst or acceleration to the line of the scrimmage. Overview: He reminds me of a quicker version of T.J. Duckett. He's got the lumbering size and power of Duckett, but unlike Duckett he has a bit more quickness to make defenders miss. But just like Duckett, he's a bit slow "out of the gates." NFL Forecast: Like Duckett, I think he can be a successful NFL back if he plays behind a good line that opens up clear lanes for him. He'll also be an effective short-yardage and goalline runner because of his strength inside the tackles. In the right scheme, he could be an effective starter. But I think it's more likely that he'll be a good backup that is a situational player. He'll be a Ron Dayne/T.J. Duckett type of NFL player, that if he has another back that can provide the speed, he'll be a very good situational guy. But probably not a guy that will be a very productive lead back. Value: A third round pick for a team that already has a speed option. Otherwise, he's probably a fourth round value. BenJarvus Green-Ellis 5'10" 219 Mississippi Senior 40: 4.63 Pros: Shows pretty good speed and has enough power to break arm tackles. Has good vision and is a capable outside runner. Cons: He's not as powerful as his size would merit and doesn't do a good job between the tackles. Won't break long runs. Overview: On paper, you would think he's one of the few power backs in this class. But he's not. Despite his build, he plays more like he's 200 pounds than 220. He lacks upside. NFL Forecast: He'll get a chance to stick as a reserve, but unless he can show ability as a receiver or on special teams, I don't see him having a long NFL career. Just is only an average runner with nice size and speed, but there are much better speed threats and better power runners in this class. Value: Might be worth a seventh round pick, but I probably wouldn't draft him. Mike Hart 5'9" 209 Michigan Senior 40: 4.67 Pros: Shows great toughness and is the emotional leader of the Michigan football team. Has good quickness and excellent vision. Does a great job setting up defenders on the second level. Is a very willing blocker in pass protection. Cons: Has issues with durability and has been constantly nicked up in his time at U of M. Has only so-so speed. Overview: Hart reminds me of Warrick Dunn during his prime. He shows the same outstanding vision in setting up defenders, and is also is a lot better pass protector than you would think. He's one of those great football players like Dunn, that you look at him and don't think he'll be a good player, but he'll outwork everyone else. He's one of the more polished backs in this class, despite being far down the totem pole when it comes to athleticism. NFL Forecast: Hart needs to be protected on the next level. While he routinely got 30 or more carries at Michigan, he won't be able to do that consistently on the next level. But I would not at all be surprised to see him develop into a lead back on the next level like Dunn was in his prime. In a zone-blocking scheme like the one in Denver, I'd bet good money that Hart would put up great numbers. But whether his body will allow him to sustain it long-term is a major question. If he goes to a team like Dunn did at the outset and splits carries, his longevity in the NFL will be greatly enhanced. If not, then he'll only be a third down back on the next level. Value: For a zone-blocking team looking for a smart back to split carries, he'd be worth a late second round pick. Otherwise, he's a third rounder.

9 Chris Johnson 5'11" 197 East Carolina Senior 40: 4.24 Pros: Shows great speed and homerun ability. Has good agility and quickness and will make defenders miss in the open field. Has good vision and pretty good receiving skills. Runs with more power than size would indicate and has excellent balance which allows him to keep running after contact. Cons: Won't be much of a factor as an inside runner on the next level. Lacks size to be a true feature back on the next level. Overview: He's a former wide receiver that has speed to burn. I think he can put on some weight which will help him be stronger for the NFL level. I'm reminded a lot of a slimmer version of Willie Parker. NFL Forecast: He'll last in the NFL because of his homerun threat ability. Isn't a 20+ carry back, but certainly can handle a 15-carry load and if someone else can spell him on short-yardage he'll be very good. Has the frame to put on another ten or so pounds, especially in the lower body. Should make a very good living breaking long runs in the NFL. Value: A second rounder because he's not more than a 20-carry guy. Rafael Little 5'9" 194 Kentucky Senior 40: 4.55 Pros: Shows excellent patience and vision as a runner. Does a good job setting up defenders to make them miss. Has good speed and can take it the distance. Has good hands and is elusive in the open field. Tougher inside runner than his size would merit. Cons: Lacks power. Is coming off a knee injury in January that will likely cause him to miss most if not all of his rookie year. Overview: Little's injury will hurt his draft status, but he's one of those players that could surprise down the road if he's allowed to get healthy. NFL Forecast: He's your classic third down back, but I think he does have some potential to be a decent starter because of his patience and vision. Because of his vision and patience, he doesn't take a lot of punishment. Obviously, how much quickness he'll have post-knee injury is a big concern. Value: If he was healthy, he'd be a third round pick. Now, he's a guy that would be worth a flyer in rounds five or six. Chris Markey 5'10" 215 UCLA Senior 40: 4.67 Pros: An effective north-south runner with decent straight-line speed. Shows good hands. Cons: Doesn't change direction well and slow out of his cuts. Overview: He's not going to make anybody miss and is only effective when he has a large hole to run through. He's got a chance to be a decent third down back. NFL Forecast: His only chance of sticking in the NFL is probably on special teams ability. He's simply a marginal runner that is neither fast nor big enough to last. If he can improve in the passing game, he might get some looks as a third down back. But truthfully, at best he'd be another Fred McAfee type of player that if he excels on special teams could have a very long NFL career. Otherwise, he'll stick around for a few summers, but will have to try his hand in a different league. Value: Is an undrafted free agent through and through. Darren McFadden 6'1" 215 Arkansas Junior 40: 4.33 more straight-line, as he's not as explosive out of his cuts as some past elite runners. Overview: Everyone wants to compare McFadden to Adrian Peterson. So here goes, I think McFadden has the ability to be better than Peterson. He doesn't have as strong a lower body as Peterson, nor is as quick out of his cuts as Peterson was, but I think he's got much better speed. He's the most talented player in this draft based purely on athletic ability. NFL Forecast: He has a very high ceiling and if he gets stronger in his lower body over the next few years, he'll likely reach it. McFadden should be a solid lead back, but he's not going to be one of those guys that you love to hand the ball off 25+ times in a game. He's just not built for that type of workload. He needs someone to platoon with, but he can definitely be a lead back in an offense and be a very potent weapon. Value: If a team with the No. 1 pick needed a running back, it would make a lot of sense to draft McFadden. Rashard Mendenhall 5'10" 225 Illinois Junior 40: 4.45 Pros: Has excellent power and strength. Shows good patience as a runner and has enough quickness to make guys miss in the open field. Excellent north-south runner that is great slamming it up the guy. Shows surprisingly good long speed to hit homeruns. Cons: His hands are only average and while he's decent in pass protection, he'll need work there as far as the pro game goes. Overview: Mendenhall is a true power back, but definitely has good speed to break long runs. You can tell he's still a bit raw and is a better athlete than he is a pure running back. But physically-speaking, he's one of the more impressive running backs I've ever seen. One of the things that will have to be monitored, is whether he can adjust to playing behind a lead blocker in the NFL. Almost all of his carries at Illinois came out of a single back or shotgun set. NFL Forecast: He's the type of player that I could definitely see struggling for the first year or two in the league but then becoming a monster later on, similar to the careers of Ronnie Brown and Tiki Barber, although he's much closer in ability to Brown. But at the same time, because of his athletic ability, I don't think it's crazy to think he could be a beast from the start. His best bet in the NFL will be to work as a singleback in an offense, and be the thunder with someone else being the lightning. He definitely has the toughness to be a 20-carry back, but I think he'd be a great back in a platoon system much like Marion Barber. Value: He is definitely worth a first round pick. How high he goes in that round is dependent on whether that team has the proper tools for him to succeed early. Allen Patrick 6'1" 199 Oklahoma Senior 40: 4.56 Pros: Has good speed and more strength than his size would merit. Can stretch defenses with his speed. Cons: Is not a pure burner. Runs tough, but doesn't break too many tackles. Lacks ideal size. Overview: What you like about Patrick, is he plays bigger than he is. Which gives him a shot at the next level, but he's still undersized. He's a good all-around back, but in his case, there is nowhere he excels. NFL Forecast: In a zone-blocking scheme, he might have potential to be a lead back. But lacks the size you want in that role for long-term success. More likely, he'll be a quality third down back. I think he has less starting potential than many other undersized backs in this class, so I'm projecting him to be a solid backup on the next level. Value: A fourth round pick. Pros: Has oustanding speed and will take it the distance. Has good power and will break tackles. Is shifty and can make people miss in the open field. Is a capable receiver. Cons: Runs a bit too high and will make him more susceptible to injuries on the next level. Not a great power runner, as he doesn't have the strong lower body you like to see in those players. And his speed is 16