A Critical Re-Evaluation of the Career of Sam Baugh. Glenn Gerstner St. John s University PCA/ACA Conference March 28, 2013

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1 A Critical Re-Evaluation of the Career of Sam Baugh Glenn Gerstner St. John s University PCA/ACA Conference March 28, 2013

2 Why study the career of Sam Baugh?

3 Why study the career of Sam Baugh?

4 Sam Baugh at a glance Born March 17, 1914 in Temple, Texas (about half way between Dallas and Austin). Attended Texas Christian University Played for the Washington Redskins Coach of the New York Titans ( ) and Houston Oilers (1964). Died December 17, 2008 (age 94) in Rotan, Texas (250 miles northeast of Temple).

5 TCU: Started every game from Named All-America in 1935 and 1936; finished 4 th in the Heisman Trophy voting in TCU won the mythical national championship in Also played baseball at TCU, he played minor league baseball in the Cardinal s system in Inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 1951, its inaugural class. Selected to Sports Illustrated greatest 11 in 1969 (the only quarterback), and selected to ESPN s greatest college football team (22 players) in 1991.

6 Redskins: Baugh was the first choice (6 th overall) of the Redskins in the 1937 draft. He played more games (165) than the five other players chosen before him combined (134). Led the Redskins to NFL Championship in 1937 and First team All-Pro 7 times. Led league in passing 6 times. Led league in punting 5 times. Led league in interceptions in 1943.

7 Redskins: Inducted in the inaugural class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1963 (the only quarterback in the class of 14, Bob Waterfield, Sid Luckman, and Otto Graham followed in 1965). He was selected to both the NFL 50 th Anniversary team of 1969 (with Johnny Unitas) and to the 75 th Anniversary team in 1994 (with Graham, Unitas, and Joe Montana). In 1999 was selected at the 3 rd greatest player of the 20 th century by the AP, ranked 11 th by The Sporting News.

9 Redskins: In 2010, the NFL Network chose their 100 greatest players in the history of pro football. Baugh ranked 14 th, quarterbacks ranked higher were Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, and Johnny Unitas. The same NFL ranking was done by the fans and Baugh ranked 74 th. Quarterbacks higher according to the fans included Dan Marino, John Elway, Brett Favre, Steve Young, Terry Bradshaw, Kurt Warner, and Joe Namath. But this reflects a modern bias: Don Hutson was ranked 9 th by the experts, and left off the fans list. Others left off included Sid Luckman, Chuck Bednarik, Ray Berry, Bronko Nagurski, Gino Marchetti, and Steve van Buren.

10 Career leaders: Completion percentage 1 Chad Pennington 66.0% 2 Aaron Rodgers 65.7% 3 Drew Brees 65.6% 11 Joe Montana 63.2% 102 Sam Baugh 56.5% 120 Otto Graham 55.8% 138 Johnny Unitas 54.6%

11 Career leaders: Passing yards per game 1 Matthew Stafford Drew Brees Peyton Manning Joe Montana Johnny Unitas Otto Graham Sam Baugh 132.6

12 Career leaders: Interception percentage 1 Aaron Rodgers 1.8% 2 Tom Brady 2.1% 3 Neil O'Donnell 2.1% 17 Joe Montana 2.6% 159 Johnny Unitas 4.9% 168 Otto Graham 5.1% 220 Sam Baugh 6.8%

13 Career leaders: Passer rating 1 Aaron Rodgers Steve Young Tom Brady Joe Montana Otto Graham Johnny Unitas Sam Baugh 72.2

14 The game of football in 1937 The first consideration in evaluating Baugh s career is an understanding of the nature of football in Rules were different, the equipment was different, and offensive strategies were different. Jumping ahead, this will lead to the conclusions (1) that player output as measured by statistics is wildly different than today, and (2) players needed to be far more versatile than today s players.

15 Limited substitution (a/k/a single platoon ) From the inception of the league in 1920 through 1942 players were two-way players they played both offense and defense. This was due to the limitedsubstitution rules of the day. Players who were removed from the game in the first half could not return until the second half, and players removed in the second half could not return for the remainder of the game. In 1943, a lack of manpower (WW II) prompted the league to institute free substitution. In 1946 the rule was amended limiting substitutions to three at a time, and in 1950 free substitution was permanently adopted.

16 Baugh the defensive back During the era of limited substitution, players had to be versatile. Until the rules were modified in 1943, Baugh played virtually every down unless he was injured. Besides quarterback, he played defensive back regularly from ; only sparingly thereafter. He led the NFL in interceptions in 1943 with 11 and had 31 in his career. On November 14, 1943, against the Detroit Lions, he threw 4 touchdown passes and intercepted 4 passes. Safe to say that feat will never be equaled.

17 Baugh the punter Baugh was the Redskins primary punter from 1937 through Punting statistics only began to be recorded in 1939, and he led the league 5 times during the 8 seasons he was the Redskins primary punter. His 51.4 yard average in 1940 is still a record, and his career average of 45.1 is good for 13 th all-time. Although punting was different back then the quick kick was ordinary strategy, and several players on a team would punt from time to time it is clear that Baugh was the best punter of his era.

18 Game strategy In its early days, football was a defensive game. Points were hard to come by. The first year in which modern statistics were kept was in 1932, when the Chicago Bears won the championship with a record (ties has no effect on W/L percentage). In 14 games the Bears scored 160 points and allowed 44, so their season average was 11.4 and 3.1. They threw 148 passes and rushed the ball 513 times. 9 different players threw passes. Their defense allowed only 6 touchdowns the entire season.

19 The rules & equipment Players did not wear facemasks, and other than a closed-fist punch, there were few restrictions on contact. As such, receivers were not inclined to run over the middle to catch passes. Quarterbacks were routinely hit late. The ball was not as aerodynamic as it is today. Quarterbacks did not have the ability to work on complex offensive passing schemes or to gain familiarity with their receivers with lengthy practice. In short, the nature of the game made it hard to pass effectively.

20 The evolution of the football 1934 Smithsonian Media

21 The NFL in 1937 The game in which Baugh would enter could be characterized as follows: 1. Players were generally on the field for 60 minutes. 2. Teams passed the ball about 18 times per game and passed the ball once for every three rushes (Today, the average is 35 passes and teams pass the ball 20% more than they rush). 3. Completion percentage was about 40%, and about 10% of passes were intercepted. 4. Passing was still considered a minor part of offensive football, if not an act of pure desperation.

22 Analysis Instead of measuring Baugh against modern players, he should be compared with the players of his era. Borrowing from Bill James (ERA plus, OPS plus), we will examine Baugh s statistics using relative measures. Completion percentage plus: (Player comp % / Rest of league comp %) x 100 Passer rating plus: (Player rating / Rest of league rating) x 100 Interpretation: Average player is 100, values above and below 100 represent the percentage to which the player exceeds or falls below the league average.

23 Sam Baugh: Passing accuracy Year Baugh League Comp %

24 Sam Baugh: Passing accuracy Year Baugh League Comp % Career

25 Sam Baugh: Passer rating Year Baugh League Rating

26 Sam Baugh: Passer rating Year Baugh League Rating Career

27 Comparison QB Career Rating League Rating + Sid Luckman Sam Baugh Otto Graham Johnny Unitas Joe Montana Peyton Manning Tom Brady

28 Sam Baugh: Punting Year Baugh League Rating Career

29 Comparison Punter Career Punt Avg. League Rating + Glenn Dobbs Sam Baugh Shane Lechler Tommy Davis Jerrel Wilson Yale Lary Ray Guy

30 Summary Compared to players of his era, only Sid Luckman can be considered a comparable quarterback. Along with Luckman, the statistical gap between them and the rest of the league was the widest in history. Note: Luckman needs to be evaluated since his passing ability appears to be under appreciated. Baugh was the best punter of his era, and probably one of the best of all-time. Sam Baugh should be continue to be considered in the discussion of the who is the greatest player in the history of the NFL.

First, we will take note of two histograms ("percent frequency histograms" more

III. Understanding the Differences (if any) Results and Interpretations A. The Graphs First, we will take note of two histograms ("percent frequency histograms" more specifically) for the "Hall of Famers"