1988 Apple Cup: Second-Half Rally Propels Cougars to Win.

Transcription

1 1988 Apple Cup: Second-Half Rally Propels Cougars to Win 1 28 YEARS LATER Abstract This paper presents a method to compare the performance of the last five WSU Football coaches over the past twentyeight years, based on the number of conference wins. John M. Keating, MBA me@johnmkeating.com Washington State, 91 &

2 Table of Contents Introduction... 2 The Washington State Football Coaches ( )... 2 Table 1 WSU Coach, Tenure, and Years Coached... 2 The Grading Assignments... 3 Table 2 Conference Wins Converted to GPA, and Letter Grades... 3 The Results Are In... 3 Table 3 Twenty-Eight Years of WSU Coaching (Season and Cumulative GPA)... 4 Table 4 Season and Cumulative GPA (sorted by Season High to Low)... 5 Table 5 Season and Cumulative GPA (sorted by Cumulative High to Low)... 6 Table 6 Season and Cumulative GPA (sorted by Year Coached)... 7 The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same... 8 Table 7 Cumulative GPA for WSU Coaches from Conference Wins Matter... 9 Table 8 WSU Coaches Ranked by Season Conference Wins P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

3 Introduction From , WSU has hired five head football coaches, all with varying degrees of success ultimately played out on the intra-conference gridiron. This paper attempts to measure the performance of all coaches based upon the number of conference wins, formerly the Pac- 10, now the Pac-12, by assigning a grade point average converted from the number of season conference wins. The methodology will show that throughout the last twenty-eight years of WSU Football, there have been ebbs and flows, similar to the rolling hills of the Palouse, yet one thing has been consistently clear: WSU Football has been; Acceptable. The Washington State Football Coaches ( ) Table 1 below lists the five WSU Football coaches over the last twenty-eight years. Table 1 WSU Coach, Tenure, and Years Coached WSU Coach Tenure Years Coached Dennis Erickson ( ) 2 seasons Mike Price ( ) 14 seasons Bill Doba ( ) 5 seasons Paul Wulff ( ) 4 seasons Mike Leach (2012-present) 3 seasons 2 P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

4 The Grading Assignments Table 2 shows the grading assignments based on the number of season conference wins achieved converted to grade point average (GPA), and letter grades used to measure the season and career cumulative performance for WSU s last five head football coaches. Table 2 Conference Wins Converted to GPA, and Letter Grades Conf. Academic GPA Letter Wins Equivalent Grade 8 Valedictorian 4.00 A 7 Summa Cum Laude 3.90 A 6 Magna Cum Laude 3.70 A- 5 Cum Laude 3.50 B+ 4 Consistent 3.30 B+ 3 Satisfactory 3.00 B 2 Acceptable 2.00 C 1 Marginal 1.00 D 0 Unacceptable 0.00 F Please note, for the purpose of this paper, GPA is not an academic measure, it is a conversion of season conference wins to a corresponding GPA calculated on a 4.00 point scale and letter grade, for comparing and ranking the Cougar head coaches over the past 28 years. The Results Are In Table 3 shows the results over the past 28 years, the name of the coach, the number of conference wins converted to corresponding GPA, the academic equivalent description, and the cumulative GPA designed to more effectively compare the performance achieved from conference wins, relative to their Cougar head coaching counterparts from 1987 thru P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

5 Table 3 Twenty-Eight Years of WSU Coaching (Season and Cumulative GPA) WSU Coach Year Conf. SEASON Academic CUMULATIVE Trend Wins GPA Grade Equivalent GPA Grade Dennis Erickson D Marginal 1.00 D Dennis Erickson B+ Cum Laude 2.25 C Mike Price B Satisfactory 3.00 B Mike Price C Acceptable 2.50 C+ Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.67 C+ Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 2.88 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.90 B- Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 3.00 B Mike Price C Acceptable 2.86 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.88 B- Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.99 B- Mike Price F Unacceptable 2.69 C+ Mike Price D Marginal 2.54 C+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.49 C+ Mike Price A- Magna Cum Laude 2.58 C+ Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.68 C+ Bill Doba A- Magna Cum Laude 3.70 A- Bill Doba B Satisfactory 3.35 B+ Bill Doba D Marginal 2.57 C+ Bill Doba B+ Consistent 2.75 B- Bill Doba B Satisfactory 2.80 B- Paul Wulff D Marginal 1.00 D Paul Wulff F Unacceptable 0.50 F Paul Wulff D Marginal 0.67 F Paul Wulff C Acceptable 1.00 D Mike Leach D Marginal 1.00 D Mike Leach B+ Consistent 2.15 C Mike Leach C Acceptable 2.10 C Mike Leach ??????? With regard to the Paul Wulff experiment, or what I refer to more appropriately as the Jim Sterk experiment, Wulff s two conference win season best in 2011, was better than one win season worsts from Erickson (1987), Price (1998 & 1999), Doba (2005), and Leach (2012). Wulff and Price both earned Unacceptable zero conference win seasons. 4 P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

6 Table 4 Season and Cumulative GPA (sorted by Season High to Low) WSU Coach Conf. SEASON Academic CUMULATIVE Year Trend Wins GPA Grade Equivalent GPA Grade Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.99 B- Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.68 C+ Bill Doba A- Magna Cum Laude 3.70 A- Mike Price A- Magna Cum Laude 2.58 C+ Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 3.00 B Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 2.88 B- Dennis Erickson B+ Cum Laude 2.25 C Bill Doba B+ Consistent 2.75 B- Mike Leach B+ Consistent 2.15 C Bill Doba B Satisfactory 3.35 B+ Mike Price B Satisfactory 3.00 B Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.90 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.88 B- Bill Doba B Satisfactory 2.80 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.67 C+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.86 B- Mike Price C Acceptable 2.50 C+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.49 C+ Mike Leach ??????? Mike Leach C Acceptable 2.10 C Paul Wulff C Acceptable 1.00 D Bill Doba D Marginal 2.57 C+ Mike Price D Marginal 2.54 C+ Dennis Erickson D Marginal 1.00 D Paul Wulff D Marginal 1.00 D Mike Leach D Marginal 1.00 D Paul Wulff D Marginal 0.67 F Mike Price F Unacceptable 2.69 C+ Paul Wulff F Unacceptable 0.50 F Table 4 reveals that Coaches Erickson, Price (5), and Doba have achieved the Dean s List, securing 5 or more conference wins in only 7 of the past 28 years. Put another way, only 25% of the time, or 1 out of every 4 seasons on average in the past 28 years, have the Cougars been able to win 5 or more conference games. I m optimistic that Leach s Year 4, could be the opportunity to reach that milestone, achieved only by Price in 1992 (Doba, 4 wins in 2006). 5 P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

7 Table 5 Season and Cumulative GPA (sorted by Cumulative High to Low) WSU Coach Conf. SEASON Academic CUMULATIVE Year Trend Wins GPA Grade Equivalent GPA Grade Bill Doba A- Magna Cum Laude 3.70 A- Bill Doba B Satisfactory 3.35 B+ Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 3.00 B Mike Price B Satisfactory 3.00 B Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.99 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.90 B- Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 2.88 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.88 B- Mike Price C Acceptable 2.86 B- Bill Doba B Satisfactory 2.80 B- Bill Doba B+ Consistent 2.75 B- Mike Price F Unacceptable 2.69 C+ Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.68 C+ Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.67 C+ Mike Price A- Magna Cum Laude 2.58 C+ Bill Doba D Marginal 2.57 C+ Mike Price D Marginal 2.54 C+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.50 C+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.49 C+ Dennis Erickson B+ Cum Laude 2.25 C Mike Leach B+ Consistent 2.15 C Mike Leach ??????? Mike Leach C Acceptable 2.10 C Paul Wulff C Acceptable 1.00 D Dennis Erickson D Marginal 1.00 D Paul Wulff D Marginal 1.00 D Mike Leach D Marginal 1.00 D Paul Wulff D Marginal 0.67 F Paul Wulff F Unacceptable 0.50 F Table 5 is sorted by Cumulative (High to Low). Mike Price has the unfortunate distinction of achieving Summa Cum Laude (1997) dropping to Unacceptable (1998), effectively going from the Dean s List to flunking out. Put another way, it would be like experiencing euphoria from a seven conference win season, to falling into the abyss (not The Cavern, it s now called Valhalla), and being placed on academic probation the following year. 6 P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

8 Table 6 Season and Cumulative GPA (sorted by Year Coached) WSU Coach Year Conf. SEASON Academic CUMULATIVE Trend Wins GPA Grade Equivalent GPA Grade Bill Doba A- Magna Cum Laude 3.70 A- Mike Price B Satisfactory 3.00 B Dennis Erickson D Marginal 1.00 D Paul Wulff D Marginal 1.00 D Mike Leach D Marginal 1.00 D 5 Coaches 1 Avg C- Marginal 1.94 C- Dennis Erickson B+ Cum Laude 2.25 C Mike Leach B+ Consistent 2.15 C Bill Doba B Satisfactory 3.35 B+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.50 C+ Paul Wulff F Unacceptable 0.50 F 5 Coaches 2 Avg C+ Acceptable 2.15 C Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.67 C+ Mike Leach C Acceptable 2.10 C Bill Doba D Marginal 2.57 C+ Paul Wulff D Marginal 0.67 F 4 Coaches 3 Avg C- Marginal 2.00 C Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 2.88 B- Bill Doba B+ Consistent 2.75 B- Mike Leach ??????? Paul Wulff C Acceptable 1.00 D 3 Coaches 4 Avg B- Acceptable 2.21 C Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.90 B- Bill Doba B Satisfactory 2.80 B- 2 Coaches 5 Avg B Satisfactory 2.85 B- Mike Price B+ Cum Laude 3.00 B Mike Price C Acceptable 2.86 B- Mike Price B Satisfactory 2.88 B- Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.99 B- Mike Price F Unacceptable 2.69 C+ Mike Price D Marginal 2.54 C+ Mike Price C Acceptable 2.49 C+ Mike Price A- Magna Cum Laude 2.58 C+ Mike Price A Summa Cum Laude 2.68 C+ Table 6 shows the season and cumulative GPA s sorted by the years each coach was at that point in their career. Coaches should be evaluated against each year s cumulative average. 7 P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

9 The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same 2 So how has Mike Leach performed, relative to the previous four head coaches since 1987? Overlooking Mike Leach s Marginal Year 1 GPA of 1.00, when the Captain took on water relative to the Year 1 average of Leach s Consistent Year 2 cumulative GPA of 2.15 in 2013 was the same relative to the Year 2 average of Leach s Acceptable Year 3 cumulative GPA of 2.10 is slightly higher relative to the Year 3 average of Therefore, if the Cougars can win eight Pac-12 games in 2015, festivities aside, Leach s cumulative GPA of 2.58 would rank third compared to Price 2.88 (1992), and Doba 2.75 (2006), at Year 4 of their distinguished Cougar coaching careers, and would rise above the Year 4 average of 2.21 (Wulff 1.00). Table 7 Cumulative GPA for WSU Coaches from Years Conf. WSU Coach Ranked CUMULATIVE Wins by Cumulative GPA GPA Grade 5 17 Bill Doba 2.80 B Mike Price 2.68 C+ 2 6 Dennis Erickson 2.25 C 3 7 Mike Leach 2.10 C 4 4 Paul Wulff 1.00 D D C C 3 Mike 2.38 C C C+ 6 Leach 2.50 C C C Projected Table 7 shows the cumulative GPA for WSU coaches during their respective careers P a g e 7 / 2 4 /

10 The methodology of assigning grades for the number of conference wins, validates that Mike Leach, benefitted from a Year 2 second best GPA of 3.30 (Erickson 3.50, 1988), increasing his cumulative GPA to 2.15, equal to the Year 2 average. Falling in Year 3, Leach s GPA of 2.10 is above the Year 3 average of Although Mike Leach has earned only one more conference win in three seasons, as compared to what Dennis Erickson earned in two, it appears Leach has steadied the Cougar pirate ship, trending in the right direction, sailing at an Acceptable level. Conference Wins Matter It goes without saying that earning a victory in the Pac-12 conference is difficult. But it is important to measure coaching progress relative to conference wins of the past, based on the season results of former head coaches at that point in their career. Therefore, Table 8 depicts the legend that is Mike Price, twice attaining seven win seasons, Summa Cum Laude (1997 & 2002) in arguably, the most difficult football conference in the country. Additionally, Mike Price s cumulative GPA never fell below a C+ average (2.49 in 2000) in any of his 14 seasons! Table 8 WSU Coaches Ranked by Season Conference Wins # Conf. WSU Coaches Academic Wins Equivalent 2 7 Price(2) Summa Cum Laude 2 6 Price, Doba Magna Cum Laude 3 5 Price(2), Erickson Cum Laude 2 4 Doba, Leach Consistent 6 3 Price(3), Doba(3) Satisfactory 5 2 Price(3), Wulff, Leach Acceptable 6 1 All, Wulff(2) Marginal 2 0 Price, Wulff Unacceptable Cheers to a most successful Cougar Football Campaign in Go Cougs! 9 P a g e 7 / 2 4 /