2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST

Transcription

1 2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST Ministry of Finance United Republic of Tanzania

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS No. List of Charts/Tables Page No. 1 Annual Growth in Real GDP 1 2 Trend in Real Agricultural Output 1 3 Trend in Output of Select GDP Sectors 2 4 National Savings as a Ratio to GDP 2 5 Lending and Deposit Interest Rates and Interest Rate Differential 3 6 Credit to the Private Sector as a Ratio to GDP 3 7 Capital Formation as a Ratio to GDP 4 8 Ratio of Exports and Imports of Goods to GDP 4 9 Composition of Merchandise Exports 5 10 Composition of Merchandise Imports 5 11 Year-over-Year Per Cent Change in the CPI 6 12 Current Account Deficit as a Ratio to GDP 6 13 Merchandise Trade Deficit as a Ratio to GDP 6 14 Foreign Exchange Reserves 7 15 Total Domestic Revenues as a Ratio to GDP 7 16 Composition of Tax Revenues (Ratios to GDP) 8 17 Ratio of External Grants to GDP 8 18 Composition of External Grants (Ratios to GDP) 9 19 Central Government Total Debt as a Ratio to GDP 9 20 Budgetary Balances as Ratios to GDP Domestic and Foreign Financing as Ratios to GDP Total Debt Service as a Ratio of the Total Resource Envelope Total Interest Payments as a Ratio of Total Domestic Revenues Composition of Interest Payments (Ratios to GDP) Credit to the Public Sector as a Share of Total credit Ratio of Debt Service to GDP National Debt Sustainability Analysis: Solvency Indicators Ratio of Recurrent and Development Expenditures to GDP Share of Development Expenditures in Total Expenditures Total Expenditures on Priority Sectors Under PRS Allocation to the Three NSGRP Clusters in The Recently Adopted NSGRP Summary of Revenue Measures Governance Indicators drawn from World Bank Report 23 2

3 ! " Annual Growth in Real GDP Year-over-year percent change Calendar years #$%& ( Trend in Real Agricultural Output Billions of Tshs (1992 prices) 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Calendar years ) *+, 1

4 )$%&*( Trend in Output of Select GDP Sectors 30 Billions of Tshs (1992 prices) Calendar years Mining & Quarring Manufacturing Construction $ ( National Savings as a Ratio to GDP Calendar years ) $%&*( 2

5 Lending and Deposit Interest Rates and Interest Rate Differential Lending rate Difference betw een Lending and Deposit Interest Rate Deposit rate 1996/ / / / / / / /04 Financial years ( $ Credit to the Private Sector as a Ratio to GDP / / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years ( -. 3

6 Capital Formation as a Ratio to GDP Calendar years ( ( Ratio of Exports and Imports of Goods to GDP Calendar years Ratio of Imports of Goods to GDPmp Ratio of Exports of Goods to GDPmp /$%&( 4

7 Composition of Merchandise Exports Billions of Tshs Calendar years Traditional Goods Non - Traditional Goods -Minerals Other Non-Traditional Goods /( Composition of Merchandise Imports B illio n s o f T s h s 2,00 1,60 1, Calendar years Consumer Goods Intermediate Goods Capital Goods 0 - / 5

8 / 1 Year-over-Year Per Cent Change in the CPI Calendar years. ( Current Account Deficit as a Ratio to GDP Calendar years Merchandise Trade Deficit as a Ratio to GDP Calendar years. / ( 6

9 Foreign Exchange Reserves M illio n s o f U S D 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Calendar year-end ( / Total Domestic Revenues as a Ratio to GDP 1996/ / / / / / /03 Financial years $%& / / 2003/ / / / /08 7

10 Composition of Tax Revenues (Ratios to GDP) / / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years Tax on imports Sales/VAT and excise on local goods Income taxes Others taxes (mainly inland revenue) % / % Ratio of External Grants to GDP 1996/ / / / / / / / / /06 Financial years / $%& 8

11 Composition of External Grants as Ratios to GDP 1996/ / / / / / / / / /06 Financial years Project grants as % GDP Programme grants as % of GDP Central Government Total Debt as a Ratio to GDP / / / / / / / /04 Financial year-end $%& 9

12 Budgetary Balances as Ratios to GDP 1996/ / / / / / / / / / / /08 Total Budgetary Balance (Deficit) Financial as years % of GDP Total Budgetary Balance (excluding devel.expenditures) - as % of GDP / Domestic and Foreign Financing as Ratios to GDP 1996/ / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years Foreign financing(net) Domestic financing (net) 3/

13 0.4 Total Debt Service as a Ratio of the Total Resource Envelope / / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years $%&( Total Interest Payments as Ratio of Total Domestic Revenues 1996/ / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years 11

14 Composition of Interest Payments as Ratios to GDP P e rcent Foreign Domestic / / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years 3 P e r c e n t Credit to the Public Sector as a Share of Total Credit 1996/ / / / / / / / / / / /08 Financial years $ 7 12

15 Ratio of Debt Service to GDP Note: More update data to come P e rc e n t / / / / / / / /04 Financial years Debt service(domestic) to GDP Debt service -Foreign (Net of HIPC) to GDP % ( P e rc e n t The National Debt Sustainability Analysis (Solvency Indicators) Calendar year-end NPV/GDP NPV/XGS NPV/DBR ( 13

16 . /( Ratio of Recurrent and Development Expenditures to GDP Total expenditures to GDP Development expenditure as a % of GDP Recurrent expenditure as a % of GDP / / / / / / / / / /06 Financial years 8/ Share of Development Expenditures in Total Expenditures 1996/ / / / / / / / / /06 Years / 14

17 Millions of Tshs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Total Expenditures on Priority Sectors under PRS-1 and Under NSGRP for / / / / / / / /06 Years # &# 9 )&#9* : 9 $ #&):9$#&;<=<=* NSGRP 15

18 NSGRP INTERVENTIONS 2005/06 Cluster Recurrent Development Total NSGRP: I 505,192, ,785, ,977,416 II 426,392, ,068, ,461,337 III 104,989,054 55,611, ,600,359 Total NSGRP 1,036,573, ,465,405 1,948,039,112 NON-NSGRP 1,232,353, ,128,802 1,654,482,143 TOTAL (Central Government) 2,268,927,048 1,333,594,207 3,602,521,255 Regions and Councils 521,940,136 51,588, ,529,042 GRAND TOTAL 2,790,867,184 1,385,183,113 4,176,050,297 % of NSGRP Cluster Budget Cluster Recurrent Development Total NSGRP: I 49% 46% 48% II 41% 48% 44% III 10% 6% 8% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% % of Total Central Government Budget Cluster Recurrent Development Total NSGRP: I 14% 12% 26% II 12% 12% 24% III 3% 2% 4% SubTotal 29% 25% 54% NON-NSGRP 34% 12% 46% TOTAL (Central Government) 63% 37% 100% % of Total Budget Cluster Recurrent Development Total NSGRP: I 12% 10% 22% II 10% 10% 21% III 3% 1% 4% Total NSGRP 25% 22% 47% NON-NSGRP 30% 10% 40% TOTAL (Central Government) Regions and Councils 12% 1% 14% GRAND TOTAL 67% 33% 100% 16

19 $ :9 $ # & ):9$#&* :9$#& :9$#& &# 9 )&#9*.. &#9> 7 :9$#&&#9>! =&#9 )&#9>* %9! :9$#&. ;%!;%!?@ A 7 A 3 :9$#& 17

20 &#9>? A A A A :9$#& :9$#& A A :9$#&!"#$%%!!&!!() * +, 87, B &. # # & 18

21 !(!& -$)!& & $%!$".* * +, C.7 ) *, B 7 7 /. 7 B 7!($$%$!$*) * +, $ % 19

22 &, 9 B7 B #! #/. / : ;%D ; B/ 3&! / B/ :9$#&.:9$#&? 20

23 / 2 D../. 8 9#?. 9. 3)9.3*! :9$#& EEEEEEEEE 21

24 Summary of Revenue Measures ($/ )*B/3)FB>* )*$;6? )*B/ +0% )*# %)>*G, )*#9G,>, 2 >H)* >+)* H)/ * H) * 5>) * )*#,>, 2 GH)&* H)#* 5)9*, +/.&IB" 2 J", ">>">", >">H5>"K, H5>GGK, LGMMKH, /,% )*B/B/%3)FB>* )*? // )*!// )*#/9GH9>!, )*& )*.9>9 +0 %, & 9 / ; 3 G;;-B?9? 3. F 22

25 Changes in Governance Indicators in Africa, Number of Contries Country Names Voice and Accountability Significantly Improved 5 Ghana, Gambia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Tanzania Improved 16 Worsened 22 Significantly Worsened 4 Central African Republic, Cote divoire, Eritrea, Zimbabwe Government Effectiveness Significantly Improved 4 Botswana, South Africa, Tanzania, Congo D.R. Improved 16 Worsened 21 Significantly Worsened 6 Central African Republic, Cote divoire, Comoros, Sierra Leone, Chad, Zimbabwe Control of Corruption Significantly Improved 3 Gabon, Tanzania, Congo D.R. Improved 13 Worsened 12 Significantly Worsened 5 Cote divoire, Guinea, Gambia, Namibia, Zimbabwe Source : Kaufmann, Kraay and Mastruzzi (2005) $ $ N8 &O <<; /)*./ P 8.)P8.* ooooooooooooo ooooooooooooo 23

26 Policy Analysis Department MINISTRY OF FINANCE Madaraka Avenue, P.O. Box 9111, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Tel: /0 or /9, Fax: , Website: