2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss. El Niño, the Twisted Atlantic and the Effect on Global Agriculture

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1 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss El Niño, the Twisted Atlantic and the Effect on Global Agriculture

2 Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool autumn and will create a cold winter and cooler early spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the volcanoes should fade during springtime and should have limited impact on the growing season. The warm phase of the AMO usually creates hotter summers (except during summers with major volcanic cooling) in Europe and North America and stormier spring and summers around Central and Eastern North America. They usually double the number of hurricanes and allow them to go further north. The effect should last another years. There were early summertime El Niño conditions and the conditions should affect this winter as well. Historically this means slightly cooler and wetter conditions in winter and, if it lasts until spring, it creates warmer, drier conditions through the Western Americas and Australia. We have reached a tipping point. The PDO has changed and is creating more extreme weather and drier conditions in the Western Americas for the next years. It will create warmer and wetter conditions in Asia and Australia. It may also have changed the impact of El Niños. Evelyn Browning Garriss/ BrowningNewsletter.com 2

3 Basically the climate is determined by: How much solar radiation the Earth receives (the Sun) The patterns of where the solar radiation falls or is reflected (Clouds/Volcanoes) Where the heat from the solar radiation is stored (Oceans/Urban Heat Islands) Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 3

rings, sediment layers, and glacial cores to learn how they

4 As an historical climatologist, I look at what factors are shaping the weather and use: Historical records, coral and tree rings, sediment layers, and glacial cores to learn how they shaped the weather in the past. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 4

5 Clouds, the debris from large volcanoes, and man-made aerosols can reflect back sunlight and change rainfall patterns. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 5

6 In 2011, large volcanoes erupted in both the North Atlantic and Pacific. The cool Arctic summers have reduced the amount of summer melt for three years in a row. National Snow and Ice Data Center Evelyn Browning Garriss/Browning Newsletter 6

7 Positive AO In 2012, the impact of northern Atlantic and Pacific volcanoes strengthened the circumpolar winds, making a strong positive Arctic Oscillation and trapping cold air north. Negative AO This year the circumpolar winds are weaker and are letting the unusually cold air flow south. Evelyn Browning Garriss/Browning Newsletter 7

The Russian volcanoes are restless and even moderate eruptions encourage the eastward flowing polar jetstream to dive furthest south in North

8 8 Facts to Remember about Volcanoes and Climate 1 Volcanoes are the WILD CARDS of climate. They temporarily change long-term trends. 2 The key to an explosion s impact is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! Explosions in different areas change wind patterns differently. The Russian volcanoes are restless and even moderate eruptions encourage the eastward flowing polar jetstream to dive furthest south in North America. Expect this to happen several times this winter. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 8

9 9 The November newsletter warned that a Russian volcano would trigger a cold spell in the 2 nd week of November. courtesy: NOAA/NCEP abs Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 9

10 Oceans store and transport heat PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation 50 year cycle There are several oscillating patterns of ocean currents. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 10

Oceans store and transport heat The long-term

11 Oceans store and transport heat The long-term Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) turned positive in The Gulf stream flows faster. The North Atlantic warms. warm Atlantic cool Atlantic The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 11

12 Warm AMO Cool AMO The warm phase of the AMO diverts precipitation from the Prairie Provinces,Gulf, and Great Plains. This increases the risk of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 12

When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation turned

Cool Atlantic Atlantic hurricanes go farther north,

13 When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation turned positive in 1995, the North Atlantic became warmer. Cool Atlantic Atlantic hurricanes go farther north, including into Canada, double in number and, on average, carry more moisture. Warm Atlantic courtesy: NOAA/GOES Cool Atlantic Warm Atlantic Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 13

14 Negative NAO Positive NAO When the Atlantic is warm, winter negative North Atlantic Oscillations become more frequent. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 14

15 These were the conditions that shaped last winter s notorious Polar Vortex weather. Winter s divided weather patterns will linger through spring. Last Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 15

16 When temperatures shift, precipitation patterns shift. Agriculture follows the rain. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 16

17 The Positive AMO redistributes scarce water in the Middle East. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 17

18 The Positive AMO redistributes scarce water in the Middle East. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 18

19 Mid October 2014 Plume of Model ENSO Predictions El Niño El Niño conditions developed in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific in Late May. These conditions faded but experts say there is a 60%+ chance of an El Niño event returning. on-status-fcsts-web.pdf Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 19

20 Remember the hot and cool MJOs MJO - Madden Julian Oscillation 4-6 week cycle They flow through the warming El Niño and can warm or cool the water. A cool MJO churned up the El Niño conditions starting in July and two warm MJOs are reheating it. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 20

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.12.

21 Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 21

gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.

22 Typical Strong to Moderate El Nino winter weather (during years without heavy polar volcano activity) ml; above, courtesy: NOAA Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 22

23 Winter and Spring will be shaped by how big and long lasting the El Nino is. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 23

edu/maproom/enso/climate_impacts/enso_prcp_prob_ts2p1.html?

24 If the El Niño conditions become an El Niño, this is the most likely effect on precipitation Winter Precipitation Spring Precipitation Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 170%3A15%3A-40%3A75%3Abb&T=Mar-May&Tercile=dry 24

25 Mid January Mid February A moderate Russian volcanic eruption will make this region colder. * If El Niño conditions continue. Mid February Mid March Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 25

IF The El Nino conditions last until mid spring AND there is no new large volcano eruption: THEN The US would probably have a near normal summer with higher warmth in the South with dry weather

26 IF The El Nino conditions last until mid spring AND there is no new large volcano eruption: THEN The US would probably have a near normal summer with higher warmth in the South with dry weather returning to California and a good growing season in the Midwest and most of the Great Plains. Southern Canada typically has growing conditions from the Rockies to the Atlantic. In most similar years the crop production was average to slightly better than average. Evelyn Browning Garriss/ BrowningNewsletter.com 26

Positive (warm phase) PDO 1976-1998 The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Each

27 Like the Atlantic, the Pacific has a long-term cycle, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Positive (warm phase) PDO The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Each phase lasts years Negative (cool phase) PDO 2006-present Browning Newsletter Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 27

The PDO s impact on precipitation Winners Midwest US STRONGER MONSOON: Northern & Central China STRONGER MONSOON: India STRONGER MONSOON: Japan Brazil Southern Africa STRONGER MONSOON: Eastern

28 The PDO s impact on precipitation Winners Midwest US STRONGER MONSOON: Northern & Central China STRONGER MONSOON: India STRONGER MONSOON: Japan Brazil Southern Africa STRONGER MONSOON: Eastern Australia Losers California/Southwest US WEAKER MONSOON: Southern China WEAKER MONSOON: Pakistan WEAKER MONSOON: North Korea Andes Republics/ Southern Argentina East Africa WEAKER MONSOON: Western Australia Evelyn Browning Garriss/ BrowningNewsletter.com 28

A La Niña magnifies the impact of a cold PDO. http://en.wikipedia.

29 A La Niña magnifies the impact of a cold PDO. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 29

30 The impact on agriculture Wheat Soybeans Corn Stockcube Research Ltd Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 30

31 courtesy: FAO Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 31

32 The Atlantic AMO changed in The Pacific Dedacal Oscillation is less stable but from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s the US & Canada enjoyed the most benign combination of the PDO and AMO. data-us only: US Geological Survey Evelyn Browning Garriss/ BrowningNewsletter.com 32

Since 2006, the two oceans have combined to create dry

nation for months, even years at a time.

33 Since 2006, the two oceans have combined to create dry weather in the West and Great Plains. during some El Niños As the east Pacific changes from cool to warm and back again, drought hits much of the nation for months, even years at a time. data-us only: US Geological Survey Evelyn Browning Garriss/ BrowningNewsletter.com 33

34 El Niño and South America Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 34

35 warm AMO cool PDO Evelyn Browning Garriss Outlook for SOUTH AMERICA over the next 10 years. Evelyn Browning Garriss/BrowningNewsletter.com 35

36 Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool autumn and will create a cold winter and cooler early spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The impact of the volcanoes should fade during springtime and should have limited impact on the growing season. The warm phase of the AMO usually creates hotter summers (except during summers with major volcanic cooling) in Europe and North America and stormier spring and summers around Central and Eastern North America. They usually double the number of hurricanes and allow them to go further north. The effect should last another years. There were early summertime El Niño conditions and the conditions should affect this winter as well. Historically this means slightly cooler and wetter conditions in winter and, if it lasts until spring, it creates warmer, drier conditions through the Western Americas and Australia. We have reached a tipping point. The PDO has changed and is creating more extreme weather and drier conditions in the Western Americas for the next years. It will create warmer and wetter conditions in Asia and Australia. It may also have changed the impact of El Niños. Evelyn Browning Garriss/ BrowningNewsletter.com 36

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Changing Climate and the Outlook

Changing Climate and the Outlook for Oilseed 2016 Evelyn Browning Garriss Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. There is a 90% chance the current El Niño will be strong and last