West African Drought (Emphasis on the Sahel)
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1 West African Drought (Emphasis on the Sahel) C. Roberto Mechoso (1), B. Rodriguez-Fonseca (2), Elsa Mohino (2) (1) University of California Los Angeles, USA (2) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain Mohino, E., S. Janicot and J. Bader, 2011: Sahelian rainfall and decadal to mul;decadal SST variability. Clim. Dyn., 37, Mohino, E., B. Rodriguez- Fonseca, C. R. Mechoso, S. Gervois, P. Ru; and F. Chauvin, 2011: Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon. J. Climate, 24, Rodriguez- Fonseca, B., E. Mohino, C. R. Mechoso, et al., 2015: Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A review of the role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. J. Climate. Accepted.
2 West African Monsoon TRMM Precipita;on ( ) Diurnal 10- day running average EQ 5N 10N 15N EQ 5N 10N 15N The ver;cal arrow marks the Sahelian phase of the West African Monsoon
3 Rainfall Sahel Sahel Drought La;tude La;tude Rainfall Sahel min Month Jan- Dec Month Jan- Dec
4 GPCP Annual Mean Precipitation 1985~2004 CMIP5 Ensemble Mean Black Tropica (1) Exc mos (Note (2) Prec at the E (3) Exc severe NH tro (4) SPC tilted) Precipita;on simulated by CMIP5 CGCMs Annual mean Note the exaggerated zonal structure and double ITCZ mm/year
5 Atmospheric Response to Atlan<c Niño (JJA) Precipita;on Ensemble Mean Anomalies (JJA) 4 AGCMs SST Leading Mode (SST, precip) (JJAS) Losada et al. (2010)
6 Sahel Rainfall and Pacific SST Anomalies May- June July- August Observa;on Ensemble AGCM simula;on
7 Mediterranean SST influence cold minus warm years Posi<ve SST anomalies in the Mediterranean tend to be associated with posi<ve precipita<on anomalies in the Sahel. Increased evapora;on over the posi;ve SST anomalies lead to increased moisture content in the lower troposphere, which is advected southwards across the eastern Sahara where it converges resul;ng in increased precipita;on (Rowell 2003).
8 Sahel rainfall vs Pacific and Atlan<c Niños Influences on Sahel rainfall of SST anomalies in the Atlan;c and Pacific Oceans tend to balance each other
9 SST indices b DRY c Datasets: Yearly mean SST from HadISST1 and the ERSSTv3 GW: Averaged SST over the world AMO: PC1 of averaged SST over the Atlan;c IPO: PC1 of averaged SST over the Pacific IDV: PC1 of averaged SST over the Indian Ocean
10 AGCM simula<ons with SST anomalies GW Precipita;on Anomalies SST Anomalies AMO Precipita;on IPO GW Drying in the Sahel and increased precipitation in the Gulf of Guinea, Southward shift of the ITCZ AMO Enhanced rainfall in Sahel and decreased over the coast of Gulf of Guinea, Northward shift of the ITCZ PDO Significant decrease in Sahel rainfall, Enhanced subsidence over West Africa Mohino et al. (2011)
11 Precipita<on anomalies: Sahel (JJAS) 10W- 10E, 10N- 20N AGCMs with observed SSTs tend to capture the Sahel drought and recovery
12 Seasonal Forecas<ng The ENSEMBLE models show skill in forecasts of the ;ming of the monsoon onset, with ROC scores of at 3 months lead ;me. This represents a major advance toward a meaningful answer of the ques;on: Will the onset of the WAM be earlier or later than average this year? Vellinga et al. (2013)
13 Future projec<ons: Summer (JAS) rainfall changes ( vs ) CMIP3 CMIP5 Sahel Rainfall Indices There is a general tendency for slightly weher condi;ons over central Sahel
14 Summary: Interannual Variability In interannual ;me scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlan;c and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduc;on over the Sahel. Posi;ve SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall in the Sahel. These rela;onships tend to be non- sta;onary. This may be due changes in the configura;on of tropical SST anomalies in different adjacent tropical oceans, which can interact either construc;vely or destruc;vely according to ;me. According to the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projec;ons, the onset of the rainy season will be delayed in the future throughout the Sahel and especially over West Africa, with more abundant precipita;on simulated during the late rainy season.
15 Summary: Interdecadal Variability The strong drought in the Sahel at the end of the XX century seems to result from a superposi;on of decadal SST modes, par;cularly the AMO. Influence of SST was modulated by strong decadal varia;ons in vegeta;on cover, land use and land cover (LULC), and aerosol types and spa;al distribu;ons. CMIP3 climate models do not fully capture the observed magnitude of rainfall variability in the Sahel.
16 Summary: Predic<ons and Projec<ons Current forecast systems show skill in their seasonal predic;ons of onset and total rainfall amounts over West Africa, though this is generally limited to the Gulf of Guinea. According to the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projec;ons, the onset of the rainy season will be delayed in the future throughout the Sahel and especially over West Africa, with more abundant precipita;on simulated during the late rainy season.
17 Challenges Role of the Indian Ocean, as some contradictory reports are reported. Reasons for the nonsta;onary impact of SST anomalies. There is s;ll a substan;al spread in rainfall projec;ons by the end of the 21st. What are the key model components to be improved for a higher skill of drought predic;on over the Sahel? Contribu;on of land surface processes in climate change scenarios. Ahribu;on to anthropogenic forcings.
18 On the causes for the Sahel drought A lively debate exists on whether decadal variability of Sahel rainfall might receive significant contribu;ons from external forcings. For example, it has also been suggested that both the drought and the recovery in the Sahel are mostly due to effects on SST of increase and subsequent reduc;on of sulfate emissions in Europe and North America. Research on this sugges;on is very challenging because it has to be performed in the context of CGCMs, which have serious systema;c errors specially in the Atlan;c.
19 Addi;onal References Tropical Atlan;c Variability modes ( ). Part I: ;me- evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall. J. Climate, 21, DOI: /2008JCLI Rodríguez- Fonseca B., S. Janicot, E. Mohino, T. Losada, J. Bader, C. Caminade, F. Chauvin, B. Fontaine, J. Garcia- Serrano, S. Gervois, M. Joly, I. Polo, P. Ru;, P. Roucou, A. Voldoire, 2010: Interannual and decadal SST forced responses of the West African monsoon. Atm. Sci. Le2. DOI: /ASL.308. Losada, T., B. Rodriguez- Fonseca, S. Janicot, S. Gervois, F. Chauvin, P. Ru; (2010) A mul;model approach to the Atlan;c ecuatorial mode. Impact on the WestAfrican monsoon. Clim. Dyn., Vol. 35, DOI /s Losada T., B. Rodríguez- Fonseca, E. Mohino, J. Bader, S. Janicot, C. R. Mechoso, 2012: Tropical SST and Sahel raifall: A non- sta;onary rela;onship, Geophys. Res. Leh., 39, L DOI /2012GL Polo I., B. Rodríguez- Fonseca, T. Losada, J. García- Serrano, 2008: Tropical Atlan;c Variability modes ( ). Part I: ;me- evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall, J. Climate, Vol.21, pp
20 ! CMIP5 Simula<ons
21 Sahel 1980's drought and mid- 1990's recovery According to AGCM simula;ons with SST anomalies l The low-frequency 20th Century Sahel rainfall was mainly driven by SST variability l The main SST patterns affecting the Sahel were GW, AMO and IPO Mohino et al. (2011)
22 Decadal Predic<on of Sahel rainfall index Anom. Correl. Coeff with ACC CRU dataset (15W- 15E, 10N 20N) Forecast average (yrs) Ini;alized hindcasts Historical experiments Decadal forcing residuals Mohino et al. (2011)
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