Climate change effects on fisheries: implications for management Nick Caputi

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1 NCCARF Climate change effects on fisheries: implications for management Nick Caputi Alan Pearce & Rod Lenanton December 2009

2 Overview 1. Overall environmental trends 2. Environmental effect on fisheries (recruitment, size at maturity, etc) 3. Historic trend of these environmental variables 4. Implications Stock assessment management 5. Future climate trends 6. Future climate change effects on fisheries

3 Key environmental trends (a) increasing frequency of ENSO events; (b) more years with weaker Leeuwin Currents; (c) increase in water temperature off lower west coast (autumn-winter) (d) increase in salinity with large inter-annual fluctuations (e) changing frequency & location of storms (westerly winds, rainfall) lower west coast (f) change in frequency of cyclones (& summer rainfall) affecting north-west of WA

4 Environmental databases (Alan Pearce) 1. SOI /Indian Ocean Dipole (monthly) 2. Fremantle sea level (monthly) National Tidal Centre 3. Temperature/salinity puerulus sites (monthly) DoF commercial lobster monitoring (monthly Nov-June) DoF Rottnest station - CSIRO 4. Reynolds Satellite SST (monthly 1 o block) CSIRO 5. ChlA (monthly 1 o block) CSIRO 6. Wind data Automatic Weather Stations (12) (minute) - BoM NCEP: large scale winds 7. Temp logger Puerulus sites (hourly) - DoF Albany/Esperance (daily ( ) Exmouth (hourly ) - DoF Jurien/Ningaloo/Rowley Shoals (hourly) DEC 8. Wave data - DPI

5 Rate of warming ( C/year) (Pearce & Feng, 2007) Western Australia o C/yr

6 Rate of change of water temperature Puerulus sites (Dongara/Jurien) Commercial monitoring 0-36 m Dongara/Jurien Commercial monitoring 0-36 m Lancelin/Fremantle Environmental monitoring 0-50 m Rottnest Rate of Change ( o C/ year) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Caputi et al. 2009

7 Leeuwin Current (Warm low-nutrient waters flowing south)

8 Frequency of ENSO events 8 events in 18 years ( ) 1 in 2 years 5 events in 20 years ( ) 1 in 4 years Cause? Climate shift at decadal level (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Climate change

9 Modelled volume transport of Leeuwin Current at 32S (off Perth) Southward Ming Feng

10 Case studies - examples 1. Western rock lobster 2. Prawns 3. Scallops 4. Blue swimmer crabs 5. Pearl oysters 6. Tailor 7. Dhufish 8. Whitebait 9. Marron

11 Western Rock Lobster (Panulirus cygnus)

12 Female with tarspot (sperm) & eggs Phyllosoma larvae Life History Stages Migrating white & non migrating red Puerulus

13 Standardized Migrating Whites Mean Carapace Length Fremantle All Locations CL (mm) Dongara /75 76/77 78/79 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 Season Caputi et al. in press

14 'Whites' carapace length and Water temperature 85 83/ /85 82/83 <87/88 'Whites' Carapace Length (mm) /96 81/82 85/86 76/77 79/80 88/89 80/81 90/91 86/87 89/90 96/97 94/95 97/98 77/78 07/08 78/79 06/07 87/88 00/01 93/94 91/92 99/00 04/05 05/06 92/93 01/02 >88/89 02/ / /09 09/10 10/11 07/08 03/ Water temperature Feb-Jun Lag 3-5 years Caputi et al. in press

15 Scallops (Amusium balloti)

16 Scallop catches v. El Nino events Shark Bay Landed catch (t whole wt) * * El Nino event previous year * * * * * * * * * Year * Abrolhos Islands Landed catch (t whole wt) * El Nino event previous year * * * * * * * * * * Year * Lenanton, Caputi, Kangas 2009

17 Pearl oyster piggyback spat (0+ and 1+) Hart & Joll 2006

18 0+ Spat (per 1000 shell) 0+ Spat (per 1000 shell) A B (05) 2005 Settlement r 2 = 0.91 (03) (06) (07) (02) (05) (04) (01) Bidyadanga Rainfall (Nov-Apr) mm (03) r 2 = 0.69 (06) (07) (04) (05) (02) (01) Bidyadanga Rainfall (Nov-Apr) mm Pearl oyster 0+ settlement vs rainfall (Nov to April) at Bidyadanga Hart et al. in prep.

19 Rainfall trends (Nov-April) Bidyadanga C 3 yr mean Nov - Apr Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Hart et al. in prep.

20 Tailor: Recruits 0+ (Feb-Apr) v. Salinity previous year Point Walter juvenile catch rate (no./person/hour) Ayvazian et al. Salinity (Nov-Jun) (lagged 1 year)

21 Implications for stock assessment (Rock lobster case study) Biological parameters generally assumed fixed Climate change trends of biological parameters Size of migrating (to deepwater) lobsters smaller More lobsters in deep water Size of maturity smaller Change in growth curve Reduced recruitment Abundance trends/prediction important

22 Management implications Changes in abundance (+ve or ve) Adjust fishing effort and/or catch quota Changes in biological parameters (eg growth) changes in minimum/maximum size etc? Change in spatial distribution of species relative to management boundaries winners and losers? historic shares?

23 SHARK BAY Rock lobster 26 S WESTERN AUSTRALIA fishery ABROLHOS IS LANDS PORT GREGORY DONGARA NORTH COASTAL - 3 Fishing zones - 9 Collector sites 30 S SOUTH COASTAL JUR IE N LA NC E LIN ALKIMOS FREMANTLE INDIAN OCEAN WARNBRO 34 S CAPE MENTELLE 113 E 116 E

24 Future climate trends/research Poloczanska et al. (2007) CSIRO Mk3.5 model Waters around Australia will warm 1-2 o C (2030s) & 2-3 o C (2070s) Westerly winds in southern Australian waters weaken Higher frequency of ENSO events? WA marine climate change (WAMSI Node 2) Indian Ocean, Leeuwin Current, coastal site Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) Storm rainfall decline (south-west) Increase in cyclones/rainfall (north-west)

25 Research Findings Caputi, N., Pearce, A., Lenanton, R. (in prep.). Fisheries-dependent data and climate. WAMSI. report Caputi, N., de Lestang, S., Feng, M., Pearce, A. (2009). Seasonal variation in the long-term warming trend in water temperature off the Western Australian coast. Marine and Freshwater Research 60: Caputi, N., Melville-Smith, R., de Lestang,S., Feng,M., Pearce, A. (in press). The effect of climate change on the western rock lobster fishery. Can.J. Fish.Aquat. Sci. Lenanton, R, N. Caputi, M. Kangas, M. Craine (2009). The influence of the Leeuwin Current on economically important fish and invertebrates off temperate Western Australia. J. Royal Soc. WA 92:

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