Why is the ITCZ in the Northern Hemisphere? Role of the AMOC

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1 Why is the ITCZ in the Northern Hemisphere? Role of the AMOC DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON YEN-TING HWANG NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY NEVEN FUČKAR CATALAN INSTITUTE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE (IC3) SARAH KANG ULSAN NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND OTHERS US AMOC SCIENCE TEAM MEETING,

2 Tropical rainfall clearly favors the NH GPCP Precipitation 2001~2010 Annual Mean Climatology I ll argue this defining feature of the tropics is due to the AMOC mm/day

3 Outline Our theoretical framework With some idealized model simulations mixed in Why is the ITCZ in the north? An analysis of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and ocean heat transports Is the NH or SH heated more? Model simulations with modified ocean heat transports Main reference: Frierson, Hwang, Fučkar, Seager, Kang, Donohoe, Maroon, Liu, and Battisti, Nature Geoscience, 2013

ITCZ Response to High Latitudes Pioneering work by Chiang and Bitz (2005) showed strong sensitivity of ITCZ to high latitude sea/land ice in Last Glacial Maximum

4 ITCZ Response to High Latitudes Pioneering work by Chiang and Bitz (2005) showed strong sensitivity of ITCZ to high latitude sea/land ice in Last Glacial Maximum conditions Drying ITCZ shifts away from cooled NH Paleoclimate data is consistent with such a shift Moistening See also simulations by Broccoli et al From Chiang and Bitz (2005)

Atlantic (55-75 o N, 63 o W-4 o E) Change in SST and precip (avg

5 ITCZ Responds to Freshwater Hosing Zhang and Delworth (2005) added a freshwater flux of 0.6 Sv to the N. Atlantic (55-75 o N, 63 o W-4 o E) Change in SST and precip (avg from yrs 21-60): Cooling throughout NH, warming especially in S. Atlantic Precip shifts southward

6 Our Studies of Extratropical Influences on ITCZ Sarah Kang s thesis (2009): Idealized experiments on the effect of high latitude forcing on ITCZ location Aquaplanet GCM (AM2) runs w/ idealized forcing: Surface Forcing Implied Ocean Flux SH warming NH cooling From Kang, Held, Frierson, & Zhao (2008) and Kang, Frierson & Held (2009)

ITCZ Changes In response to forcing, ITCZ precipitation shifts towards warmed hemisphere With strong forcing, ITCZ shifts up to 18 degrees Tropical precip in aquaplanet

7 ITCZ Changes In response to forcing, ITCZ precipitation shifts towards warmed hemisphere With strong forcing, ITCZ shifts up to 18 degrees Tropical precip in aquaplanet GCM Control case: ITCZ located on the equator Maximum amplitude of forcing = 0, 10, 30, 60 W/m 2 From Kang, Held, Fri., & Zhao (2008, J Clim) and Kang, Fri. & Held (2009, JAS)

8 Mechanism for ITCZ Response We argue energy transport is of key importance Northward energy transport in simplified GCM 8 Anomalous energy transport into cooled region Less transport into warmed region These act to spread cooling/warming into lower latitudes

Mechanism for Energy Transport Change Eddies modify fluxes in midlatitudes Quasi-diffusively: moist static energy transport proportional to moist static

9 Mechanism for Energy Transport Change Eddies modify fluxes in midlatitudes Quasi-diffusively: moist static energy transport proportional to moist static energy gradient Anomalous Hadley circulation modifies fluxes in tropics See Kang, Held, Fri., & Zhao (2008, J Clim) & Kang, Fri. & Held (2009, JAS) for more

10 Which Latitudes are Most Important? Ocean forcing applied to different ranges of latitudes: ITCZ response Largest response for high latitude forcing! Clouds amplify the surface heating more at higher latitudes 0-10 o o o Forcing latitude Seo, Kang and Frierson, 2014

11 Theoretical Framework Based on Energetics We predict tropical rain will shift towards the hemisphere with more heating Heating not just at the surface though also SW/LW effects of clouds, & clear-sky SW/LW Let s examine the heating of the NH/SH at TOA, and at the surface

12 Claim: Whatever heats the NH atmosphere more than the SH also causes the ITCZ to be in the NH Cooler Warmer I T C Z 30S 30N Studies that demonstrate southward cross- energy transport in the atmosphere: Fasullo and Trenberth 2008, Trenberth and Caron 2001

13 Top of Atmosphere Radiation Budget Net radiation (net SW minus OLR) TOA Net Radiation from CERES EBAF 2001~2010 Annual Mean Climatology NP 50N 30N 30S 50S W/m W/m

14 Top of the Atmosphere Radiation Budget NP 50N 30N 30S 50S W/m 2

15 Top of the Atmosphere Radiation Budget SH NH SH W/m 2

16 Top of the Atmosphere The Sahara reflects SW, and radiates more easily to space. Radiation Budget W/m 2 SH receives more energy 2 than NH (1.5W/m)! NH SH W/m 2

17 Sahara Brightness NASA Terra Blue Marble Next Generation (cloud-free conditions in 2004)

18 Recognized by Nimbus III Team First observation that the Sahara is a net radiation sink, even in summer (1-15 July 1969) If not radiation, must be the ocean??

19 Surface Flux (Ocean) 2001~2010 ERA-I MSE Divergence minus CERES TOA Budget (Implied Upward Surface Flux) NP 50N 30N 30S 50S W/m W/m 2

MOC) Downward Surface Flux W/m 2 0-40 50S 30S 30N 50N

20 60 The Ocean Transports Energy Northward Across the Equator (due to the Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC) Downward Surface Flux W/m S 30S 30N 50N NP Northward Oceanic Energy Transport 2 1 PW 0-1 SP 30S 30N NP

21 Cross-equatorial Transport Happens Entirely in Atlantic (Where the Sinking from the MOC Occurs) PW Total Atlantic Pacific Indian -1 30S 30N

22 Ocean Heat Uptake? Joules Heat Uptake Over the Top 700m of Ocean NH minus SH Total Ocean heat uptake has been remarkably symmetric Data from top 2000m only available since 2005, and the NH minus SH difference is less than x 10 Joules year Data Source: NOAA/NEDIS/NODC Ocean Climate Laboratory

23 Ocean Heat Transport Observational estimates suggest cross-equatorial ocean heat transport is plenty large enough to overcome the effect of TOA radiation So the NH atmosphere is heated more than the SH Don t believe the obs? 35/35 CMIP3/5 models have more surface flux out of the NH (despite very different ocean circulations)

24 Let s put the observed surface heat flux into an aquaplanet GCM Will it be enough to shift the ITCZ into the NH? NP 50N 30N 30S 50S W/m W/m 2

30 20 10 Aqua-planet Experiments no land!

25 Aqua-planet Experiments no land!! Precipitation in the Control Simulation (mm/day) Precipitation in an aquaplanet atmospheric GCM (GFDL s AM2 model) SP 30S 30N NP Zoom in to the Tropics S 10S 10N 20N

26 Aqua-planet Experiments Precipitation in the Control Simulation (mm/day) Surface flux is quite sufficient to move the ITCZ to the NH SP 30S 30N NP Zoom in to the Tropics NP 50N 30N 30S 50S 20S 10S 10N 20N

27 How about removing the ocean heat divergence from a full GCM? Experiments with full and symmetrized surface heat flux 30N 20N 10N 10S Control 20S control symm 30S mm/day 6 8 Symmetrized

28 The Hemispheric Temperature Difference Northern Hemisphere is warmer than the Southern Hemisphere" " This is also related to the cross-equatorial ocean heat transport" " SH becomes warmer than NH when the cross-equatorial OHT is made to be zero" (from Kang, Seager, Frierson & Liu, 2014)"

Contrary to Philander et al (1996) argument" Adding a Drake passage anchors the sinking of the oceanic

29 Experiments with a Dynamical Ocean Coupled, idealized physics model GrAM-MOM " Slanted coastlines produces ITCZ in the south! Contrary to Philander et al (1996) argument" Adding a Drake passage anchors the sinking of the oceanic MOC in the NH! Giving northward cross-equatorial ocean heat transport" And the ITCZ shifts northward!! (from Fučkar, Xie, Farneti, Maroon & Frierson, J. Climate 2013 and Fučkar et al in prep)"

30 Effect of mountains? Maroon, Frierson and Battisti (submitted) studied the relative importance of mountain ranges and ocean heat transport Mountains shift precip regionally, but not much in the zonal mean Ocean heat transport confirmed as dominant control on zonal average precip

31 Other applications of our theory The double ITCZ problem is mostly due to Southern Ocean cloud biases (Hwang and Frierson 2013) Too little cloud à too much radiation into S. Ocean à warmth spreads and shifts the ITCZ south Aerosols forced a southward shift of tropical rain in late 20 th century (Hwang, Frierson and Kang 2013) But is AMOC variation also important in the real world?

32 recap Tropical rainfall shifts towards heating, even in high latitudes. Radiation alone would cause the ITCZ to be in the SH. The ocean MOC warms the NH and puts the ITCZ in the NH.

33 The Effect of MOC on ITCZ Eddies I T C Z Eddies 30S 30N

34 The Effect of MOC on ITCZ Eddies I T C Z Eddies 30S 30N Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) transports energy northward across the equator

35 The Effect of MOC on ITCZ Eddies I T C Z Eddies colder 30S 30N warmer Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) transports energy northward across the equator

36 The Effect of MOC on ITCZ stronger eddy transports I T C Z weaker eddy transports colder 30S 30N warmer Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) transports energy northward across the equator

37 The Effect of MOC on ITCZ stronger eddy transports Stronger SH Hadley Cell I T C Z Weaker NH Hadley Cell weaker eddy transports colder 30S 30N warmer Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) transports energy northward across the equator

38 The Effect of MOC on ITCZ stronger eddy transports Shifting ITCZ to NH I T C Z weaker eddy transports colder 30S 30N warmer Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) transports energy northward across the equator

39 Thanks for listening. Questions?

Tropical Circulation Changes Across Forcing Agents. Timothy M. Merlis McGill University

Tropical Circulation Changes Across Forcing Agents Timothy M. Merlis McGill University Conclusions We cannot straightforwardly apply the energetic ITCZ framework to monsoons. Conclusions We cannot straightforwardly