El Niño/La Niña and their Effect on monsoon precipitation over Indian subcontinent Speaker: Jitendra Kumar Meher,

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1 Seminar: II Course: AGM-692 El Niño/La Niña and their Effect on monsoon precipitation over Indian subcontinent Speaker: Jitendra Kumar Meher, Chairman: Prof. L. Das Ph.D. 4 th Semester Seminar Leader: Prof. S. Sarkar Department of Agricultural meteorology and Physics Faculty of Agriculture Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya Mohanpur, Dist- Nadia, West Bengal

2 Slide 1 Contents Introduction Review of Literature Objective Conclusion Some Technical terms related to El Nino and La Nina Historical chronology of events Development, identification, Global Impact, Impact on monsoon rainfall of India, Prediction tools Conclusion Reference References

3 Slide 2 Contents Introduction Review of Literature Objective Conclusion References

4 Slide 3 Introduction Why is El Niño and La Niña are interesting??

5 Slide 3 Introduction Why is El Niño and La Niña are interesting?? Global Impacts Figure 1

6 Slide 3 Introduction Why is El Niño and La Niña are interesting?? Global Impacts Mysterious history Figure 1 Figure 2

7 Slide 4 Some technical terms 1.Anomaly The difference between value of a climatic variable (for e.g. Precipitation) at a given location and its long term average at that location. Introduction X Average of variable=y Anomaly of 2014= (x-y) Figure 3

8 Slide 5 Some technical terms Introduction 2.Climatology Quantitative description of values of a variable (for e.g. Rainfall) averaged over a long period of time Year Average Daily rainfall 1979 x x X30 climatology= Average(x1,x2,,x30) Figure 4

9 Slide 6 Some technical terms 3.Convection Transfer of heat from one place to another by the movement of fluids. Introduction More specifically, it refers to motion associated with a rising current of air. Figure 5

10 Slide 7 Some technical terms Introduction 4.Equatorial Upwelling Upward motion of subsurface water toward the surface of the ocean. This is often a source of cold and nutrient rich water. Strong upwelling occurs along the equator where easterly winds are present. Figure 6

11 Slide 8 Some technical terms Introduction 5.Thermocline Thin but distinct layer in a Ocean/Lake in which temperature changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below Forms when water at the surface of an ocean or lake is heated up, while the water below stays cool Figure 7

12 Slide 9 Some technical terms Introduction 6.Trade winds/equatorial Easterlies Blowing from the subtropical highs (30 latitude) toward the low pressure region of the equator. Northern Hemisphere: NE Trade Winds Southern Hemisphere: SE Trade Winds Figure 8

13 Slide 10 Some technical terms Introduction 7.Teleconnections Climate anomalies being strongly and statistically related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). Example: Linkage of sea-level pressure at Tahiti(Pacific) and Darwin, Australia, which defines the Southern Oscillation. Figure 9

14 Slide 13 Some technical terms El Niño "El Niño in Spanish refers to the Christ Child - appear in Christmas La Niña "La Niña" is Spanish refers to "the girl" Introduction Figure 10 Figure 11 Table 1

15 Slide 13 Some technical terms Introduction El Niño La Niña "El Niño in Spanish refers to the Christ Child - appear in Christmas "La Niña" is Spanish refers to "the girl" Figure 10 Periodic warming in SST across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Periodic cooling of SST across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Figure 11 Table 1

16 Slide 13 Some technical terms Introduction El Niño La Niña "El Niño in Spanish refers to the Christ Child - appear in Christmas "La Niña" is Spanish refers to "the girl" Figure 10 Periodic warming in SST across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Periodic cooling of SST across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Figure 11 Table 1 El Niño occurs every 3 to 5 years and lasts about 1 year La Niña appear every 4-5 years and last for 1-2 years

17 Slide 14 Literature Review Introduction Review of Literature Objective Conclusion References

18 Slide 15 Literature Review Author Work Findings Eguigúren, 1894 Variety of primary and secondary sources. 1. Books: Histories and geographies of the New World written by Spanish colonists and scholars. 2. contemporary descriptions of the coastal areas of northern Peru. Analysed reports of rains in northern Peru Provided: Intensity index of these events for the period Connection between rainfall and the warm El Niño current Table 2

19 Slide 15 Literature Review Author Work Findings Eguigúren, 1894 Walker, 1924 Variety of primary and secondary sources. 1. Books: Histories and geographies of the New World written by Spanish colonists and scholars. 2. contemporary descriptions of the coastal areas of northern Peru. The relation/teleconnection between Southern Oscillation and mean summer monsoon rainfall over India. Analysed reports of rains in northern Peru Provided: Intensity index of these events for the period Connection between rainfall and the warm El Niño current El Niño or warm Pacific event : India tends to experience a below-normal monsoon La Niña or cold Pacific event: Above-normal monsoon. Table 2

20 Slide 15 Author Work Findings Eguigúren, 1894 Walker, 1924 Walker and Bliss, 1932 Variety of primary and secondary sources. 1. Books: Histories and geographies of the New World written by Spanish colonists and scholars. 2. contemporary descriptions of the coastal areas of northern Peru. The relation/teleconnection between Southern Oscillation and mean summer monsoon rainfall over India. Interannual variation of atmospheric patterns in connection with variations of the Indian monsoons. Literature Review Analysed reports of rains in northern Peru Provided: Intensity index of these events for the period Connection between rainfall and the warm El Niño current El Niño or warm Pacific event : India tends to experience a below-normal monsoon La Niña or cold Pacific event: Above-normal monsoon. Southern Oscillation Pressure: High over the pacific ocean Low over the Indian Ocean and converse. Table 2

21 Slide 16 Literature Review Author Work Findings Bjerknes, 1969 Connection between the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. 1. Trade wind system over the tropical Pacific Ocean driven in part by the large-scale gradient of SST, cold in the east and warm in the west. 2. Warm water is normally driven westward by the surface winds. Warm surface water in the west promote ascending motion and convective rainfall, and the cold surface in the east promotes subsidence and stability in the atmosphere. Table 2

22 Slide 16 Literature Review Author Work Findings Bjerknes, 1969 Quinn et al Connection between the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. El Niño type events and their intensities for the period SOI record was used along with environmental data 1. Trade wind over the tropical Pacific Ocean driven by the large-scale gradient of SST, cold in the east and warm in the west. 2. Warm water: driven westward by the surface winds. Warm western Pacific: Ascending motion of air and convective rainfall Cold eastern Pacific: Subsidence and stability in the atmosphere 1. Heavy precipitation: central and western equatorial Pacific 2. Droughts: Indonesia Closely associated with El Niño type events. Table 2

23 Slide 18 Literature Review Author Work Findings Kiladis & Diaz, 1989 Temperature and precipitation ( ) anomalies of 1045 stations globally are calculated during various stage of an event in the southern oscillation. El Niño is a local warming of surface waters that takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean of the Peruvian coast and which affects the atmospheric circulation worldwide Table 2

24 Slide 18 Literature Review Author Work Findings Kiladis & Diaz, 1989 McPhaden, 1999 Temperature and precipitation ( ) anomalies of 1045 stations globally are calculated during various stage of an event in the southern oscillation. Identifying why it is so strong challenges our understanding of the physical mechanism responsible for El Niño. El Niño is a local warming of surface waters that takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean of the Peruvian coast and which affects the atmospheric circulation worldwide Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation/the chaotic nature of atmosphere might produce ENSO Table 2

25 Slide 18 Literature Review Author Work Findings Kiladis & Diaz, 1989 McPhaden, 1999 McPhaden et al., 1999 Temperature and precipitation ( ) anomalies of 1045 stations globally are calculated during various stage of an event in the southern oscillation. Identifying why it is so strong challenges our understanding of the physical mechanism responsible for El Niño. Genesis and Evolution of the El Niño TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere) El Niño is a local warming of surface waters that takes place in the entire equatorial zone of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean of the Peruvian coast and which affects the atmospheric circulation worldwide Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation/the chaotic nature of atmosphere might produce ENSO The greatest success of TOGA program was the successful prediction and monitoring of the El Niño. Table 2 Figure 13

26 Slide 19 Objective Introduction Review of Literature Objective Conclusion References

27 Slide 20 Objective 1 To understand the mechanism of development of El Niño and La Niña

28 Slide 20 Objective 1 2 To understand the mechanism of development of El Niño and La Niña To identify an El Niño/La Niña episode?

29 Slide 20 Objective To understand the mechanism of development of El Niño and La Niña To identify an El Niño/La Niña episode? To visualise the Global Impact of El Niño

30 Slide 20 Objective To understand the mechanism of development of El Niño and La Niña To identify an El Niño/La Niña episode? To visualise the Global Impact of El Niño To study the Impact of El Niño on monsoon rainfall of India

31 Slide 20 Objective To understand the mechanism of development of El Niño and La Niña To identify an El Niño/La Niña episode? To visualise the Global Impact of El Niño To study the Impact of El Niño on monsoon rainfall of India To study the prediction tools of El Niño and La Niña

32 Slide 21 Objective 1 Mechanism of development of El Niño and La Niña

33 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Pressure Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Table 3

34 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Pressure Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Table 3 Figure 14

35 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Pressure Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Table 3 Figure 14 Figure 15

36 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Pressure Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Table 3

37 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Pressure Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Figure 16 Table 3

38 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Pressure Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Figure 16 Figure 17 Table 3

39 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Pressure Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Position of thermocline Shallow thermocline along South America. Deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Deep themocline along South America Shallow thermocline along western Pacific. Shallow thermocline along South America More than normal deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Table 3 Figure 18

40 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Pressure Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Position of thermocline Shallow thermocline along South America. Deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Deep themocline along South America Shallow thermocline along western Pacific. Shallow thermocline along South America More than normal deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Figure 18 Figure 19 Table 3 net/fundamentals/7z.html

41 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Pressure Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Position of thermocline Shallow thermocline along South America. Deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Deep themocline along South America Shallow thermocline along western Pacific. Shallow thermocline along South America More than normal deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Upwelling lots of upwelling, cold water at surface. little upwelling, warmer water at surface More than normal upwelling brings cold, nutrient-rich waters to the surface. Table 3

42 Slide 22 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Year El Niño Year La Niña Year Pressure Low pressure over western Pacific. High pressure over South America. Pressure change =SO Higher pressure over western Pacific. Lower pressure over South America. Lower than normal air pressure over the western Pacific. Higher than normal air pressure over South America. Flow of trend wind Trade winds blow east to west. Trade winds weaken or blow west to east. Trade winds increase in strength and blow even stronger than normal from east to west Position of thermocline Shallow thermocline along South America. Deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Deep themocline along South America Shallow thermocline along western Pacific. Shallow thermocline along South America More than normal deeper thermocline near western Pacific. Upwelling lots of upwelling, cold water at surface. little upwelling, warmer water at surface More than normal upwelling brings cold, nutrient-rich waters to the surface. Temperature of surface water Table 3 Warm ocean waters, clouds and moisture are pushed away from North America Western Pacific Ocean: Colder Eastern Pacific near the coast of South America: Warmer Warm surface water sloshes back along equatorial Pacific Western Pacific Ocean: Warmer Eastern Pacific near the coast of South America: Colder Warm ocean waters, clouds and moisture are pushed away from North America

43 Slide 23 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Normal Condition El Nino Condition Figure 20 Cartoon of wind circulation during Normal/La Nina and El Niño

44 Slide 23 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Figure 21 Cartoon of wind circulation during Normal, El Niño and La Niña condition

45 Slide 24 What happens during these events? Mechanism (How??) Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project Figure 22 Cartoon of upwelling, SST, and flow of water during Normal, El Niño and La Niña condition

46 Trends since Le and McPhaden, 2010 Figure 23

47 Slide 25 Mechanism (Why??..Still a mystery) Why does El Niño and La Niña occur?? Exact reason for why does they occur is still not understood.

48 Slide 25 Mechanism (Why??..Still a mystery) Why does El Niño and La Niña occur?? Exact reason for why does they occur is still not understood. They results from interaction between the surface layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in tropical Pacific.

49 Slide 25 Mechanism (Why??..Still a mystery) Why does El Niño and La Niña occur?? Exact reason for why does they occur is still not understood. They results from interaction between the surface layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in tropical Pacific. It is the internal dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that determine the onset and termination of El Niño events.

50 Slide 25 Mechanism (Why??..Still a mystery) Why does El Niño and La Niña occur?? Exact reason for why does they occur is still not understood. They results from interaction between the surface layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in tropical Pacific. It is the internal dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that determine the onset and termination of El Niño events. The physical processes are complicated, but they involve unstable airsea interaction and planetary scale oceanic waves. The system oscillates between warm (El Niño) to neutral (or cold) conditions with a natural periodicity of roughly 3-4 years.

51 Slide 25 Mechanism (Why??..Still a mystery) Why does El Niño and La Niña occur?? Exact reason for why does they occur is still not understood. They results from interaction between the surface layers of the ocean and the overlying atmosphere in tropical Pacific. It is the internal dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that determine the onset and termination of El Niño events. The physical processes are complicated, but they involve unstable airsea interaction and planetary scale oceanic waves. The system oscillates between warm (El Niño) to neutral (or cold) conditions with a natural periodicity of roughly 3-4 years. External forcing from volcanic eruptions (submarine or terrestrial) have no connection with El Niño. Nor do sunspots as far as we know. TAO

52 Slide 26 Objective 2 How to identify which is an El Niño/La Niña episode?

53 Slide 27 Different Nino regions NINO1+2 (0-10S, 80-90W). Typically warms first when an El Niño event develops. s2 Figure 24

54 Slide 27 Different Nino regions NINO1+2 (0-10S, 80-90W): Typically warms first when an El Niño event develops. NINO3 (5S-5N; 150W-90W): Largest variability in sea-surface temperature on El Niño time scales. s2 Figure 24

55 Slide 27 Different Nino regions NINO1+2 (0-10S, 80-90W): Typically warms first when an El Niño event develops. NINO3 (5S-5N; 150W-90W): Largest variability in sea-surface temperature on El Niño time scales. s2 NINO3.4 (5S-5N; 170W-120W) Closer (than NINO3) to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting rainfall Typically located in the far western Pacific. Figure 24

56 Slide 27 Different Nino regions NINO1+2 (0-10S, 80-90W): Typically warms first when an El Niño event develops. NINO3 (5S-5N; 150W-90W): Largest variability in sea-surface temperature on El Niño time scales. s2 NINO3.4 (5S-5N; 170W-120W). Closer (than NINO3) to the region where changes in local sea-surface temperature are important for shifting rainfall Typically located in the far western Pacific. NINO4 (5S-5N: 160E-150W): Changes of SST lead to C :Important threshold in producing rainfall Figure 24

57 Slide 28 Identify an El Niña/La Niña episode? Oceanic Nino Index (ONI): De-facto standard, NOAA ONI calculation: Running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5 o N-5 o S, 120 o -170 o W). Year El Niño and La Niña events since 1950 to 2015, 8-El Niños and 5 El-Niñas Figure 25

58 Slide 28 Identify an El Niña/La Niña episode? Oceanic Nino Index (ONI): De-facto standard, NOAA ONI calculation: Running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5 o N-5 o S, 120 o -170 o W). Events: 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above/below anomaly as El Niño/La Niña. Figure 19 Year El Niño and La Niña events since 1950 to 2015, 8-El Niños and 5 El-Niñas

59 Slide 28 Identify an El Niña/La Niña episode? Oceanic Nino Index (ONI): De-facto standard, NOAA ONI calculation: Running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 5 o N-5 o S, 120 o -170 o W). Events: 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above/below anomaly as El Niño/La Niña. Categorised by SST anomaly Weak: 0.5 to 0.9 Moderate: 1.0 to 1.4 SST anomaly Strong: 1.5 to 1.9 SST anomaly Very Strong: 2.0 SST anomaly Figure 25 Year El Niño and La Niña events since 1950 to 2015, 8-El Niños and 5 El-Niñas

60 Slide 29 Identify an El Niña/La Niña episode? Sustained negative value of SOI below 8 : El Niño Sustainted positive values of SOI above +8 : La Niña Figure 26

61 The number of sunspots increase and decrease over time in a regular, approximately 11-year cycle, called the solar or sunspot cycle. The exact length of the cycle can vary. El Nino is an annual occurrence, but according to the patterns till now it is catastrophic every 7 years. It just so happens that this 11th year cycle of the sunspots, and the 7th year el Nino, are occurring in the same year.

62 Slide 29 Identify an El Niña/La Niña episode? Sustained negative value of SOI below 8 : El Niño Sustainted positive values of SOI above +8 : La Niña Figure 26 Long term average 1933 to 1992 Figure 27

63 Slide 30 Identify an El Niña/La Niña episode? El Niño La Niña Cartoon of global SST anomaly during El Niño(1997) and La Niña (1988) condition Figure 28

64 Slide 31 Objective 3 Global impact of El Niño and La Niña

65 Slide 32 Global Impact Brush Fire Flood Figure 29 Figure 31 Hurricanes Anchovy population Figure 30 Table 4 Figure 32

66 Slide 38 Objective 4 Impact of El Niño and La Niña on monsoon rainfall of India

67 Slide 39 ENSO relation with mslp at Darwin and Tahiti Sir G. Walker: Quantity of rainfall in the Indian subcontinent was often negligible in the years of high pressure at Darwin (and low pressure at Tahiti). Conversely, low pressure at Darwin bode well for the precipitation quantity in India. Thus he established the relationship of Southern Oscillation with quantities of Monsoon rains in India. The ENSO is known to have a pronounced effect on the strength of SW Monsoon over India with the Monsoon being weak (causing droughts in India) during the El Niño years La Niña years had particularly good Monsoon strength over India.

68 Slide 40 Years with moderate to extreme cold states (Niño3 index < -1), have had abundant monsoon rains without exception. On the other hand, years of moderate to extreme warm states (Niño3 Index > -1) have not been reliably dry. The six leading droughts since 1871 have occurred along with a standardized Niño3 index > +1, but the presence of El Niños has not guaranteed drought. No simple association describes the relation between the Indian monsoon and Niño3 SSTs when moderate to strong El Niño conditions exist Plot of standardized, all-india summer monsoon rainfall and summer Niño3 anomaly index. Severe drought and drought free years during El Niño events (standardized Niño3 anomalies >1) are shown in red and green, respectively Figure 33 Gadgil, 2014

69 Slide 41 All-India summer monsoon rainfall ( ) All-India area-weighted mean summer monsoon rainfall, based on a homogeneous rainfall data set of 306 rain gauges, developed by the IITM, Pune Figure 34

70 Slide 42 El Niño Vs Drought, La Niña Vs Flood ( ) Drought Year (El Niño) 1873, 1877, 1899, 1901, 1904, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1920, 1941, 1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004, Exception: El Niño still no deficit of rainfall 1900, 1944, 1976, 1997,

71 Slide 42 El Niño Vs Drought, La Niña Vs Flood ( ) Drought Year (El Niño) 1873, 1877, 1899, 1901, 1904, 1905, 1911, 1918, 1920, 1941, 1951, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972, 1974, 1979, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004, Exception: El Niño still no deficit of rainfall 1900, 1944, 1976, 1997, 1906 Flood Year (La Niña) 1874, 1878, 1892, 1893, 1894, 1910, 1916, 1917, 1933, 1942, 1947, 1956, 1959, 1961, 1970, 1975, 1983, 1988, Exception: La Niña still not more than normal rainfall 1999,

72 Slide 43 Niño /La Niño association with all-india summer monsoon rainfall anomalies during Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Parameter Deficit < Below Normal to 0.5 Near Normal -0.5 to 0.5 Above Normal 0.5 to 1.0 Excess > 1.0 Total El Niño Normal La Niña Total Table 7

73 Slide 43 Niño /La Niño association with all-india summer monsoon rainfall anomalies during Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Parameter Deficit < Below Normal to 0.5 Near Normal -0.5 to 0.5 Above Normal 0.5 to 1.0 Excess > 1.0 Total El Niño (1944) Normal La Niña Total Table 7

74 Slide 44 Objective 5 Prediction tools of El Niño and La Niña

75 Slide Computer models and statistical/numerical based methods 2. Ocean and atmosphere measuring devices For example : Moored and drifting buoys and satellites. prediction tools of El Niño and La Niña Figure 31

76 Slide Computer models and statistical/numerical based methods 2. Ocean and atmosphere measuring devices For example : Moored and drifting buoys and satellites. prediction tools of El Niño and La Niña Measures... Air and SST Water currents Winds Salinity Air pressure Figure 30 Figure 31

77 Slide Computer models and statistical/numerical based methods 2. Ocean and atmosphere measuring devices For example : Moored and drifting buoys and satellites. prediction tools of El Niño and La Niña Measures... Air and SST Water currents Winds Salinity Air pressure Oceans: 70% of the earth s surface Ships, buoys and other in situ instruments can t possible cover that much space Measure wind, waves, temperature of the sea surface, ocean color, ocean surface currents, and tides. Figure 30 Figure 31

78 Slide 46 prediction tools of El Niño and La Niña Example: TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) August 10, 1992-Jan 18, 2006 Must Successful: El Niño Joint satellite mission between NASA and CNES, the French space agency, to map ocean surface topography. Covers earth in 10 days Measures: Satellite's distance from the ocean's surface and tells about the ocean's surface currents, winds, and wave heights. Jason-2 (Successor of T/P), June 20, 2008-Till data Figure 32

79 Slide 47 Conclusion Introduction Review of Literature Objective Conclusion References

80 Slide 48 Conclusion El Niño and La Niña both develop due to large-scale interaction of Ocean and atmosphere. SST and Sea surface pressure are the main drivers of these processes.

81 Slide 48 Conclusion El Niño and La Niña both develop due to large-scale interaction of Ocean and atmosphere. SST and Sea surface pressure are the main drivers of these processes. El Niño and La Niña can be identified from the ONI and SOI.

82 Slide 48 Conclusion El Niño and La Niña both develop due to large-scale interaction of Ocean and atmosphere. SST and Sea surface pressure are the main drivers of these processes. El Niño and La Niña can be identified from the ONI and SOI. Both of them have significant impact on a global scale due to teleconnection. The Impact are more devastating than fortunate.

83 Slide 48 Conclusion El Niño and La Niña both develop due to large-scale interaction of Ocean and atmosphere. SST and Sea surface pressure are the main drivers of these processes. El Niño and La Niña can be identified from the ONI and SOI. Both of them have significant impact on a global scale due to teleconnection. The Impact are more devastating than fortunate. El Niño episode is characterised by deficient/less than normal rainfall in Indian subcontinent.

84 Slide 48 Conclusion El Niño and La Niña both develop due to large-scale interaction of Ocean and atmosphere. SST and Sea surface pressure are the main drivers of these processes. El Niño and La Niña can be identified from the ONI and SOI. Both of them have significant impact on a global scale due to teleconnection. The Impact are more devastating than fortunate. El Niño episode is characterised by deficient/less than normal rainfall in Indian subcontinent. La Niña episode is characterised by more than normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

85 Slide 48 Conclusion El Niño and La Niña both develop due to large-scale interaction of Ocean and atmosphere. SST and Sea surface pressure are the main drivers of these processes. El Niño and La Niña can be identified from the ONI and SOI. Both of them have significant impact on a global scale due to teleconnection. The Impact are more devastating than fortunate. El Niño episode is characterised by deficient/less than normal rainfall in Indian subcontinent. La Niña episode is characterised by more than normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. Prediction of El Niño and La Niña can be easily done by modern techniques such as Bouys and Satellites as well as numerical models.

86 Slide 49 References Introduction Review of Literature Objective Conclusion References

87 Slide 50 References Bjerknes, J. (1969). Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial pacific 1.Monthly Weather Review, 97(3), Canby, T Y (1984). El Niño s Ill Wind, Natl. Geogr., 165(2), Changnon, S A (1999). Impacts of the El Niño-Generated Weather in the US, Bull. Am. Meteorl. Soc., 80, Diaz, K and Markgraf, V. (1998). Flood Data, in El Niño Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, eds Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Eguigúren, V. (1894). Las lluvias en Piura. Bol. Soc. Geogr. Lima, 4, Glantz, M H (2001). Currents of Change: El Niño s Impact on Climate and Society, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Kiladis, G. N., & Diaz, H. F. (1989). Global climatic anomalies associated with extremes in the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 2(9), McPhaden, M J (1999). Genesis and Evolution of the El Ni no, Science, 283, McPhaden, M. J. (1999) El Niño and La Niña: Causes and Global Consequences, The Earth system: physical and chemical dimensions of global environmental change, 1:pp McPhaden, M. J. (1999). El Niño: The child prodigy of Nature, 398(6728), Nicholson, S. E., & Kim, J. (1997). The relationship of the El Niño-Southern oscillation to African rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 17(2), Nicholson, S. E., Leposo, D., & Grist, J. (2001). The relationship between El Niño and drought over Botswana. Journal of Climate, 14(3), Quinn, W H (1992). A Study of Southern Oscillation-related Climatic Activity for AD Incorporating Nile River. Quinn, W H, Neal, V T, and Antunez de Mayolo, S E (1987). El Niño Occurrences over the Past Four and a Half Centuries, J. Geophys. Res., 92, Quinn, W. H., D. O. Zorf, K. S. Short, and R. T. W.Kao Yang, (1978). Historical trends and statistics of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and Indonesian droughts. Fish. Bull., 76, Ropelewski, C F & Halpert, M (1987). Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, Sponberg, K (1999). Compendium of Climatological Impacts, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington DC, 62. Sulochana Gadgil, El Niño and the summer monsoon of CURRENT SCIENCE. 106:10. Supplee, C (1999). El Niño/La Niña, Nat. Geo., 195(3), WALKER, G. T. (924). World Weather II. Mem. India Meteor. Dep. 24: Walker, G. T., & Bliss, E. W. (1932). World weather. V. Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 4, 53. Wang, Z., Chang, C. P., & Wang, B. (2007). Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the US climate during northern summer. Journal of climate, 20(10), WMO (1999). The El Niño Event: a Scientific and Technical Retrospective, WMO No. 905,World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 93 Lee, T., & McPhaden, M. J. (2010). Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(14).

88 Landscheidt, T. (1999). Solar activity controls El Niño and La Niña. Scrhoeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Nova Scotia, Canada. archive/org/web/ / vision. net. au/~ daly/sun_enso/sun-enso. htm.

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