TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER TITLE PAGE LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF SYMBOLS LIST OF APPENDICES

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1 vii TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER TITLE PAGE AUTHOR S DECLARATION DEDICATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ABSTRACT ABSTRAK TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF SYMBOLS LIST OF APPENDICES ii iii iv v vi vii x xii xv xvii xviii 1 INTRODUCTION Introduction Problem Statement Description of Study Area Significance of the Study Objective of the Study Scope of Study 5 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Introduction Sea Level Change 6

2 viii Sea Level Rise, Climate Variability and Marine Ecosystems Implications of Sea Level Rise The Importance of Coastal Resources Temperature Sea Level Pressure Monsoon Characteristics The northeast monsoon First inter-monsoon period The southwest monsoon Second inter-monsoon period ENSO Phenomenon El Nino La Nina Water Quality Temperature Effects Forecasting 19 3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Introduction Database Regression Analysis The Correlation Coefficient The Significance of The Correlation Coefficient The Exponential Smoothing Approach Analysis On The Temperature Effect to Dissolved Oxygen 28 4 RESULT AND DISCUSSION Introduction Mean Sea Level Analysis Analysis On Mean Sea Level Analysis On Mean Sea Level During

3 ix El Nino and La Nina Years Analysis On Monthly Mean Sea Level During Northeast and Southwest Monsoons of El Nino and La Nina Years Smoothing and Forecasting Correlation Between Mean Sea Level and Meteorological Parameters Correlation coefficient of sea level and temperature Correlation coefficient of sea level and sea level pressure Effect of Temperature to Dissolved Oxygen Saturation in Sg Johor Estuary 54 5 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions Recommendations 58 REFERENCES 59 APPENDICES 67

4 x LIST OF TABLES TABLE NO. TITLE PAGE 2.1 Summary Table of Normal, El Nino and La Nina Years Tidal stations geographic coordinate Tidal data, meteorological data and historical water quality for Malaysian waters Summary of mean sea level rise at selected stations Best-fit and residual data of Kota Kinabalu station Mean absolute percentage error of mean sea level for longest available year at selected stations The result of hypothesis test on correlation coefficient of mean sea level regression lines for selected Result of hypothesis test on correlation coefficient of mean sea level regression lines (during El Niño year) for selected stations Result of hypothesis test on correlation coefficient of mean sea level regression lines (during Lal Niña year) for selected stations Summary of mean sea level rise at selected stations Mean absolute percentage error of mean sea level after double exponential smoothing operation at selected stations Result of hypothesis test on correlation coefficient between mean sea level and temperature for selected stations Result of hypothesis test on correlation coefficient between mean sea level and sea level pressure for selected stations 53

5 4.11 Kuala Sungai Johor freshwater and saltwater saturated oxygen value 56 xi

6 xii LIST OF FIGURES FIGURES NO. TITLE PAGE 1.1 Selected tidal station in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah Flowchart procedures for current study Dissolved oxygen saturation concentration as a function of temperature and salinityprocedures flowchart of current study Mean sea level of Kota Kinabalu Mean sea level of Tanjung Gelang Mean sea level of Johor Bahru Mean sea level of Pulau Pinang Kota Kinabalu mean sea level during 1997 El Niño and 1999 La Niña events Tanjung Gelang mean sea level during 1997 El Niño and 1999 La Niña events Johor Bahru mean sea level during 1997 El Niño and 1999 La Niña events Pulau Pinang mean sea level during 1997 El Niño and 1999 La Niña events Kota Kinabalu mean sea level during northeast monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Tanjung Gelang mean sea level during northeast monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Johor Bahru mean sea level during northeast monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years 43

7 xiii 4.12 Pulau Pinang mean sea level during northeast monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Kota Kinabalu mean sea level during southwest monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Tanjung Gelang mean sea level during southwest monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Johor Bahru mean sea level during southwest monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Pulau Pinang mean sea level during southwest monsoon of El Niño and La Niña years Kota Kinabalu mean sea level in next 20 years Tanjung Gelang mean sea level in next 20 years Johor Bahru mean sea level in next 20 years Pulau Pinang mean sea level in next 20 years The correlation coefficient of Kota Kinabalu sea level and temperature The correlation coefficient of Tanjung Gelang sea level and temperature The correlation coefficient of Pulau Pinang sea level and temperature The correlation coefficient of Johor Bahru sea level and temperature The correlation coefficient of Kota Kinabalu sea level and sea level pressure The correlation coefficient of Tanjung Gelang sea level and sea level pressure The correlation coefficient of Pulau Pinang sea level and sea level pressure The correlation coefficient of Johor Bahru sea level and sea level pressure Location of Kuala Sungai Johor Station Dissolved oxygen level at Kuala Sungai Johor

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9 xv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS APHA atm Chlro DO DOE DSMM ENSO IPCC ITCZ MAPE MINC MMD MSL MSLP NE NOAA American Public Health Association Atmosphere Chloride concentration Dissolved oxygen Department of Environment Department of Survey and Mapping Malaysia El Niño Southern Oscillation Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone Mean Absolute Percentage Error Malaysia Initial National Communication Malaysian Meteorological Department Mean Sea Level Mean Sea Level Pressure Northeast monsoon National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration ppt Part per thousand or in percentage (%) SCS Sg SST South China Sea Sungai or River Sea surface temperature

10 xvi SW Southwest Monsoon

11 xvii LIST OF SYMBOLS α - smoothing constant τ - a positive number ρ - population correlation coefficient a - intercept at y-axis b - slope of the line e i - residual or error H 0 - null hypothesis H 1 - alternative hypothesis n - number of observation or observation o sf - saturation concentration of dissolved oxygen in freshwater at 1 atm (mg/l) O ss - saturation concentration of dissolved oxygen in saltwater at 1 atm (mg/l) r - correlation coefficient S - salinity (g/l = part per thousand (ppt) or in percentage (%)) S T - single smoothed estimate or single smoothed statistic - double smoothed statistic T - time/period T - temperature in Celsius ( 0 C) T a - absolute temperature (K); T a = T y - actual observed value y c - computed value y T - observation at t -th time/period - forecast value ŷ - fitted value or y c. t

12 xviii LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX TITLE PAGE A Best-Fit and Residual Data 67 B.1 Monthly Mean Sea Level during Northeast and Southwest Monsoons during El Niño Year in B.2 Monthly Mean Sea Level during Northeast and Southwest Monsoons During La Niña Year in C Location of Several Tide Gauge Stations and Tide Observation Tools

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