A Simple Dynamical Model Capturing the Key Features of the Central Pacific El Niño

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5 u + u p U H Latent heat + thermocline feedback Flux divergence SST tendency T x (km) x (km) 3 x (km) 3 3 x (km) x (km) 3 x (km) x (km) RA FT up (t)x=x 3 Fig.. Solutions of the coupled system with an additive noise in the wind burst model Eq. (6), where a p =.2, σp =. and dp = 3.4. Different columns show the wind burst up (t) at the peak x of its zonal profile with its 2-day moving average (red), Hovmoller diagrams of the atmospheric wind u + u p, the ocean zonal current U, the thermocline depth H, the SST field T, the SST tendency dt /dt, the flux divergence µ x (U T ) and the combined effect of the latent heat c ζeq and thermocline feedback c ηh in Eq. (3). Here u p is defined as u p = a p sp (x)φ (y). All variables shown are at the equator U 3 H 3 D u + u p up (t)x=x States 3 Latent heat + Flux divergence Thermocline feedback t t t SST tendency T x (km) x (km) x (km) 32 x (km) x (km) x (km) x (km) Fig. 6. Solutions of the coupled system with a two-state Markov jump process in the wind burst model Eq. (6). Different columns show the indicators of switching between the two states, the wind burst up (t) at the peak x of its zonal profile with its 2-day moving average (red), Hovmoller diagrams of the atmospheric wind u + u p, the ocean zonal current U, the thermocline depth H, the SST field T, the SST tendency dt /dt, the flux divergence µ x (U T ) and the combined contribution due to the latent heat c ζeq and thermocline feedback c ηh in Eq. (3). Here u p is defined as u p = a p (τ )sp (x)φ (y). All variables shown are at the equator. Chen et al. PNAS August 29, 26 vol. XXX no. XX

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