Do ship strikes a fatality in the Pelagos sanctuary?

Transcription

1 Do ship strikes a fatality in the Pelagos sanctuary?

2 The Problem How is the maritime traffic in Pelagos? AIS signals for all vessels in vessels have sailed through Pelagos in They travelled km in Pelagos in 2014

3 The Problem How is the maritime traffic in Pelagos? The main traffic lines in Pelagos

4 The Problem How is the maritime traffic in Pelagos? Traffic vessels belonging to the AIS category «cargos» 2423 «cargos» in 2014

5 The Problem How is the maritime traffic in Pelagos? Traffic vessels belonging to the AIS category «passengers» 330 «passengers» in 2014

6 The Problem The Pelagos Sanctuary International Agreement France / Monaco / Italie km2

7 The Problem Ship strikes in Pelagos One of the main causes of non natural death (+20%). From 8 to 40 Fin whales would died each year as a result of collision with a vessel. A ship strikes rate 3,25 times higher inside Pelagos than outside (Mediterranean basin). A pressure and associated risk that double each years (3,5-4% annual growth rate).

8 The Problem The Pelagos Sanctuary a PSSA? In october 2009!

9 The Analysis Where and how are the risks? Rorqual (Bp) Cachalot (Pm) Map of individuals per km Maritim trafic (AIS) Number of Near Miss Events

10 The Analysis Where and how are the risks? NME = Near Miss Event. The situation when a vessel and a cetacean are within a radius of 50 m For each boat we calculated the number of theoretical NME, as an approach of the collision frequency. A quantitative estimation of the risk of collision beared by each vessel

11 The Analysis Where and how are the risks? Total NME 2014 = 3508 Fin whale : % Sperm whale = % % NME Italy 35,9% ITALY + FRANCE = more than half of the risks France 18,6 % Calculation made with summer cetacean distribution overestimation in winter Theoretical risks of collision are much higher than actual collisions avoidance?

12 The Analysis Where and how are the risks? Total NME 2014 = 3508 Fin whale : % Sperm whale = % % of NME Passenger = almost half of the risk Cargo 32,3 % Passenger 49,8%

13 The Analysis Where and how are the risks? Total NME 2014 = 3508 Fin whale : % Sperm whale = % % NME cumulés boats bear a third of 1000 the risk 72 boats bear half of the risk

14 The Analysis Where and how are the risks? % NME cumulés % NME Italy 17,4% Passenger 17,4% France 12,7% Passenger 12,7% Total général 30,1% % NME Italy 28,9% Cargo 1,5% Passenger 27,4% France 16,5% Cargo 0,3% Passenger 15,4% Tanker 0,8% Other countries 4,6% Total général 50,1%

15 The Solution The REPCET System

16 The Solution The REPCET System

17 The Solution The REPCET System REPCET operational since Cost : 3600 per year 0,01 % operational costs Only 10 vessels are equiped!

18 The Solution The REPCET System In France the new Law for Biodiversity will make REPCET mandatory for all french flagged vessels How to convince Italian companies and others : PSSA or self commitment?

19 The Solution The socio economic impacts of a dreamed PSSA Scenario : 1. all vessels in Pelagos equiped with REPCET like systems 2. the speed is limited to 10 knots in the vincinity of large cetacean. Costs and benefits estimation per year for Italian and french «Passenger» Average delay 27,6 minutes 0,047% total time Fuel consumption -377 Tonnes fuel tonnes CO2 From 7,5 to 2 hours per year of delay for the 15th first vessels more impacted

20 Merci

21 DOD10 Maritime Traffic in Pelagos What is the the cost for limiting the risk? T o Observation Initiale Or REPCET like T = 10 minutes 1,71 m.s -1 T = 45 minutes T = 150 minutes T = 235 minutes

22 Diapositive 21 DOD10 Attention anonymat garder que des noms génériques ou créer un ID anonyme pour chaque bateau Denis DELL; 02/12/2015

23 DOD17 Maritime Traffic in Pelagos What is the the cost for limiting the risk? Costs and benefits estimation: examples (10 knots) Name Country Fuel saved SR Delay SR Fuel consumed AV Delay AV MEGA EXPRESS FOUR Italy -0,218% 0,320% 0,089% 0,095% MEGA EXPRESS FIVE Italy -0,245% 0,347% 0,099% 0,099% MEGA EXPRESS TWO Italy -0,244% 0,333% 0,099% 0,096% MEGA EXPRESS Italy -0,202% 0,282% 0,082% 0,086% MEGA SMERALDA Italy -0,222% 0,222% 0,105% 0,100% MEGA EXPRESS THREE Italy -0,163% 0,258% 0,065% 0,072% CORSICA VICTORIA Italy -0,066% 0,064% 0,037% 0,045% SARDINIA REGINA Italy -0,028% 0,034% 0,019% 0,028% LA SUPERBA Italy -0,057% 0,081% 0,023% 0,020% LA SUPREMA Italy -0,035% 0,047% 0,014% 0,012% MOBY WONDER Italy -0,136% 0,240% 0,053% 0,052% MOBY AKI Italy -0,134% 0,239% 0,052% 0,052% LUIGI PA Italy -0,090% 0,078% 0,045% 0,046% CRUISE ROMA Italy -0,156% 0,237% 0,062% 0,060% CRUISE BARCELONA Italy -0,151% 0,228% 0,060% 0,059% GIUSEPPE SA Italy -0,093% 0,075% 0,046% 0,047% JEAN NICOLI France -0,234% 0,170% 0,104% 0,069% MOBY CORSE Italy -0,006% 0,015% 0,012% 0,035% KALLISTE France -0,153% 0,140% 0,073% 0,066% CORSICA MARINA II Italy -0,020% 0,022% 0,012% 0,015% MONTE DORO France -0,200% 0,185% 0,101% 0,101% PASCAL PAOLI France -0,144% 0,132% 0,072% 0,059% PIANA France -0,202% 0,217% 0,089% 0,084%

24 Diapositive 22 DOD17 Attention anonymat garder que des noms génériques ou créer un ID anonyme pour chaque bateau Denis DELL; 02/12/2015

25 Maritime Traffic in Pelagos Conclusions The Pelagos sanctuary is heavily impacted by the maritime traffic: vessels travel 19 millions kilometers in the area each year. With an average growth of 4% per year this traffic will double in years. If we assume a 25m width for a typical vessel, the maritime trafic coverage is km2 per year, more than 5 times the total Pelagos area. 26 vessels account for 30% of the total IWTD and cover km2 per year, the Pelagos area. To equiped 26 vessels with an anti-collision system would cost about per year allowing to reduce significantly the risk for cetacean of a third of the maritime traffic. It would cost for 84 vesels and 50% of the traffic. The cost of anti-collision system represent 9 tonnes of fuel (400 /tonnes) The cost of anti-collision systems represents 0,01 % of operational costs (30-40 millions ). With a scenario of speed reduction at 10N and given the fuel savings, the global economical balance would be positive for the most impacted vessels.

26 Maritime Traffic in Pelagos Methodology : the Injury Weighted Traveled Distance Since the impact of collision is linked with the vessels speed we calculate an indicator weighting the traveled distance (TD) by the average speed of the vessel : the Injury Weighted Traveled Distance (IWTD) It is based on the probability of lethal injury by collision proposed by Vanderlaan and Taggart (2007).

27 DOD3 Projet Alerte collision REPCET Methodology : the Injury Weighted Traveled Distance Vessel Traveled distance Average speed Probability of lethal Injury IWTD VESSEL ,3 0, VESSEL ,0 0, IWTD = TD x Probability Lethal Injury

28 Diapositive 25 DOD3 La calcul a été fait maille par maille et par à partir de la moyenne Denis DELL; 02/12/2015

29 Maritime Traffic in Pelagos Methodology : Theoretical approach of the collision frequency, the Near Miss Event (NME) Méthode de calcul du nombre de rencontre par maille o Formulation adaptée de (Vaes & Druon, 2013) o Nous calculons un nombre de rencontres potentielles entre un navire et un spécimen ou groupe de spécimens, par maille (m) pour une période donnée ) )= ).. ) Où m: numéro de la maille L = longueur moyenne des specimens, en mètre (20 m pr Bp et 12,6 m pr Pm) T = fraction de temps passé en surface par l animal en % (30% pr Bp ; 17% pr Pm) W = largeur de la coque du navire, en mètres A = abondances relatives krigées du rorqual(bp) et du cachalot (Pm), en obs./km par maille Dc = distance des navires (en km par maille) F = Distance moyenne de détection visuelle, en kilomètre, sur 20 ans de données d EcoOcéan Institut: F_BP= 2 x km (391 obs ; ecart-type = km) F_PM = 2 x km (111 obs; ecart-type = km)