Global Impacts of El Niño on Agriculture

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1 Global Impacts of El Niño on Agriculture Presented to the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture s Food and Agribusiness Series Webinar Series Presented by: Mark Brusberg and Brian Morris USDA Office of the Chief Economist / World Agricultural Outlook Board July 28, 2015

2 What is El Niño? El Niño was originally recognized by fisherman off the coast of South America as the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of the year. El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. Around the same time, people in other parts of the world noticed a correlation between El Niño and other events, such as drought in Australia and India. The phenomenon is now referred to as ENSO (El Niño / Southern Oscillation), in an acknowledgement that there are both ocean and atmospheric components.

3 We now know that El Niño is actually the warm phase of a naturally occurring cycle of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Source of data and graphics: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center

4 2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region Warm (190 obs) Neutral (398) Cool (178) Climate Adjusted Anomaly

5 Increasing Sea Surface Temperatures are taken into account!

6 El Niño is 3 Dimensional

9 Coupling SSTs with the Atmosphere After a sufficient period of time, El Niño will begin to affect surface winds by altering normal circulation patterns.

11 Ocean Atmosphere

12 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

14 The El Niño of 2015?

15 SST Departures ( o C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the central and eastern Pacific, with the largest anomalies in the far eastern Pacific.

equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Recently, negative anomalies at depth

16 Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific During the last two months, positive subsurface temperature anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Recently, negative anomalies at depth remained in the western Pacific, while positive anomalies strengthened around ºW.

17 Updated: 9 July 2015 CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook The chance of El Niño is at least 80% into early spring 2016.

All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above +1.

18 IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook Almost all of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5ºC through spring All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above +1.5ºC (a strong El Niño) during late 2015 into early Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 July 2015).

19 How Would this Compare Historically? The *Multivariate ENSO Index (NOAA/ Earth System Research Laboratory) *These six variables are: sea level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).

Potential ENSO Impacts on Agriculture in the

21 South Africa

22 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

23 1997/ / /10 El Niño? Source: PSD-Online

24 2009/ / /03?

25 1997/ /03? 2009/10

26 2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region / /10? /07 5 consecutive periods (0.5 to 1.0) La Niña Neutral / non-event El Niño

27 Australia

28 El Niño Source: PSD-Online Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

29 2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region / /03 09/ / Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board La Niña Neutral / non-event El Niño

1997/98 2002/03 06/07 09/10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

30 1997/ /03 06/07 09/10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

31 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

32 South America

37 Potential ENSO Impacts on Agriculture in Asia

41 India

44 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

45 1997/ / /10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

46 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

47 1997/ / /10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online

48 2009: 2% increase in national yields year to year.

49 India

50 More Detailed Examination: Polarization of Impacts

54 SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC

55 SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC

56 SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC

57 SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC

63 Source: Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation Events on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Activity in the Western North Pacific M. C. WU, W. L. CHANG, AND W. M. LEUNG

64 In the Southern Hemisphere, El Niño typically contributes to drought in South Africa and Australia, although not always. Similarly, La Niña can have a reverse affect. In contrast, rainier conditions are expected in Argentina. Impacts in Brazil are harder to quantify in terms of agricultural production. ENSO s impacts in Asia are not guaranteed, but rather ENSO has a disruptive effect on the typical climatology of Asia; ENSO positive (El Niño) has a dry influence, ENSO negative (La Niña) has a wet influence, with ENSO negative having the stronger influence.

El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and inter-annual climate variability

El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and inter-annual climate variability seasonal cycle what is normal? monthly average conditions through a calendar year sea level pressure and surface winds surface