General Introduction to Climate Drivers and BoM Climate Services Products

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1 General Introduction to Climate Drivers and BoM Climate Services Products Climate Information Services Australian Bureau of Meteorology Yuriy Kuleshov

2 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodical variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting much of the tropics and subtropics. The oceanic warming phase is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: El Niño is accompanied with high, and La Niña with low air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two periods last several months each (typically occur every 2-7 years) and their effects vary in intensity.

3 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) provides an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events. The SOI is calculated using the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. Sustained negative SOI values (blue) are indicative of El Niño conditions, and sustained positive SOI values (orange) are indicative of La Niña conditions.

4 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

5 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) During La Niña events, as well as a sustained period of positive SOI, SSTs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal while the SSTs across the central and eastern Pacific are cooler than normal; convection over the Maritime continent is increased; and trade winds (easterlies) are stronger than normal.

6 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) During El Niño events, as well as a sustained period of negative SOI, SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal; the focus of convection migrates from the Australian/Indonesian region eastward towards the central tropical Pacific Ocean; and trade winds (easterlies) are weaker than normal.

7 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) In addition to the SOI, climatologists use several NINO indices to monitor the Pacific Ocean. These indices refer to the difference from the long term mean of the SSTs in several regions located along the equatorial Pacific. Generally, the National Climate Centre uses NINO3.4 as the most informative index for theaustralian region.

8 5VAR Index Sustained positive 5VAR values are indicative of El Niño conditions, and sustained negative 5VAR values are indicative of La Niña conditions.

9 5VAR Index

10 5VAR Index

11

12

13 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

14 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a coupled ocean and atmospheric phenomenon in the equatorial Indian Ocean characterised by a difference in SSTs between the western dipole (in the Arabian Sea) and the eastern dipole (in the eastern Indian Ocean around Indonesia). A positive (negative) IOD period is characterised by cooler (warmer) than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and warmer (cooler) than normal in the tropical western Indian Ocean. IOD Explainer Video

15 Indian Ocean Dipole

16 Impact on Rainfall While the IOD operates in the Indian Ocean, it has some relationship to ENSO in the Pacific. Positive and negative OID events can influence the effect of ENSO on rainfall. Australian example: having both a negative IOD and La Nina conditions has historically further increased the likelihood of rainfallacross the continent. Recently, we found that using IOD index improves skill of statistical model for seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Australia and South Pacific regions. More research on IOD is needed young researchers are invited to do PhD studies at Australian Universities.

17 ENSO Wrap-Up

18 El Niño monthly SST anomalies Index July August Temperature change NINO3-0.3 C C no change NINO C C 0.1 C cooler NINO C C 0.2 C warmer Weak cool SSTs anomalies persisted in a narrow band along much of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific during August, having decreased in strength compared tojuly. Baseline period

19 Monthly sub-surface temperatures The four-month sequence of subsurface temperature anomalies (to August) shows cool anomalies span the entire width of the equatorial Pacific, although temperatures in the top 50 m of water west of 170 W was slightly warmer than average. Compared to July these warm anomalies have strengthened, while the pattern of cool anomalies remains similar.

20 30 Day SOI values The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 11 September 2016 is +8.6, edging over the boundary into La Niña range. The 30-day SOI has hovered around +7 for the past week. The 90- day value is currently Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below 7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between about +7 and 7 generally indicate neutral conditions.

21 5-day SST and wind anomalies Trade winds near the equator in the Pacific Ocean have remained close to average for the 5 days ending 11 September, and have remained generally so since March. During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening, or even reversal, of the trade winds

22 POAMA long-range outlook Agency/Source/Provider BOM - Bureau of Meteorology Meteorological Service of Canada ECMWF (EU) JMA METEO-FRANCE NASA - GMAO (USA) NOAA - NCEP (USA) UKMO Model POAMA CanSIPS System4 JMA/MRI-CGCM ARPEGE GEOS5 CFSv2 GloSea5 These model forecasts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are generated by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical computer model of the climate system run at the Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau surveys eight international climate models to examine forecasts for the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

23 Climate model summary October 2016 to February 2017 The latest NINO3.4 outlooks (initialised in September) show temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain cool, but within the ENSO-neutral range for the remainder of The JMA model is now the only model indicating the potential for La Niña thresholds to be reached in the season, due to a stronger rate of cooling during the spring than other models. While five of the eight models indicate some further cooling may occur, most suggest this won't be enough to exceed typical La Niña thresholds. The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for each month between September and the end of the year is between 0.4 C and 0.6 C.

24 Indian Ocean Dipole The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, and has strengthened compared to two weeks ago as areas of cool anomalies have re-emerged in the western Indian Ocean adjacent to the coastline of Africa. Warm anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean, between northwestern Australia and Indonesia, have also strengthened compared to two weeks ago. The weekly index value to 11 September was 1.19 C. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below the 0.4 C negative IOD threshold for sixteen weeks, peaking at 1.37 C in early July. The July 2016 monthly IOD index value reported in the ERSSTv4 dataset was the strongest negative value in at least 50 years of record. International climate models indicate the negative IOD will steadily weaken during spring, as is typical of the lifecycle of IOD events.

25 Climate model summary October 2016 to February 2017 The latest weekly IOD index value to 11 September is 1.2 C. The negative IOD has reintensified following a brief weakening during August. While this negative IOD event is likely to be the strongest such event in the observational record, model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate a return to neutral values by the end of spring - consistent with the typical IOD event lifecycle.

26 WMO GPC Melbourne climate outlook WMO Global Producing Centre (GPC) for longrange forecasts, Melbourne, Australia Developed as part of the ICCAI, Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) experimental/pasap/

27 October to December 2016 climate outlook - SSTs

28 October to December 2016 climate outlook Accumulated Rainfall

29 October to December climate outlook: Accumulated Rainfall

30 October to December climate outlook: Accumulated Rainfall

31 La Niña WATCH remains While some criteria for La Niña WATCH are no longer met, climate models suggest either a marginal La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions are likely for the remainder of Therefore the ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. La Niña events forming in late spring or summer are not unprecedented. A La Niña WATCH status means there is approximately a 50% chance of La Niña developing in 2016, which is about twice the normal likelihood.

32 Climate Outlooks - Outreach Climate information: Outlook videos: BoM website, facebook, twitter

33 Further information Climate information: Water information: Stay up-to-date on El Niño: Subscribe to e-news:

34 El Niño- La Niña- criteria

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