Taking Stock: Building an Offshore Wind Research Agenda for the U.S. Industry

Transcription

1 Taking Stock: Building an Offshore Wind Research Agenda for the U.S. Industry Walt Musial Manager Offshore Wind National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2016 MRP Workshop December 15, 2016

2 Pioneering Offshore Wind Energy Bill Heronemus The Captain Wind Ship Concept Developed by Professor William E. Heronemus University of Massachusetts Circa 1973 Submarine Captain - USS Thresher Naval architect Professor of machine design Published vision for offshore wind in early 1970 s Led development of 26-kW UMass Wind Furnace Died November 2,

3 Trip to First Offshore Wind Plant Oct 1, 2016 Photo Dennis Schroeder- NREL 3

4 Giant Wind Farms - 6,000,000 kwh/yr is 25% of the energy from one Block Island turbine January 1983 October

5 Taking Stock International 12 + GW Installed Costs declining rapidly First Commercial floating turbines 2017 National 2016 DOE/DOI National Offshore Wind Strategy 14 GW of OS wind energy lease areas DOE ATD Projects ME, OH, NJ State CA/NY 50% RPS; HI 100% RPS MA 1600 MW Carve-out MD/NJ OREC Local 2016 First Offshore Wind Project Commissioned in Rhode Island Gavin Smart, Offshore Wind Cost Reduction: Recent and future trends in the UK and Europe UK Catapult, November 2016 Block Island Wind Farm Dennis Schroeder NREL

6 National Strategy Documents March 2015 September National-Offshore-Wind-Strategy-report pdf DOE/NREL Internal Use Only - Do Not Cite or Distribute 6

7 Wind Vision Study Scenario Calls for 86 GW of OSW Offshore Wind Grows to 21% of Total U.S. Wind by 2050 DOE/NREL Internal Use Only - Do Not Cite or Distribute 7

8 Wind Vision 2050 Deployment Scenario DOE/NREL Internal Use Only - Do Not Cite or Distribute 8

9 The Value of Offshore Wind Source: 2016 DOE/DOI National Offshore Wind Strategy Offshore Wind Attributes Support a Business Case to Enable Commercial Success in The United States 9

10 Abundant Resource Assessment of offshore wind capacity (GW) and energy potential (TWh/year) All five regions have potential and all five regions have need Solving technical challenges will open up significant opportunity on Pacific Coast and Great Lakes

11 Lease Areas Provide Sufficient Near-term Siting Opportunity 11 active commercial leases in the Atlantic Ocean Development potential 14.6 GW at 3 MW/km 2 (not including Call Areas and WEAs not auctioned) BOEM s leases provide the exclusive rights to lessee Lessee s provide a new voice to help represent the industry (Deepwater Wind, DONG, RES, US Wind, Vinyard Wind)

12 Demonstrated Market Opportunity Assessed Load Growth and Expected Retirements between 2015 and 2050 Found nearly 2,300 TWh of opportunity space by 2050 Source: 2016 DOE/DOI National Offshore Wind Strategy Key Assumptions: Load Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) 0.66% per year across coastal regions ( ) (Source: ReEDS/EIA) Retirements (assuming no repowering of generation assets) until 2050 nuclear (-99%), coal (-47%), gas/petro (-23%), and renewables (-2%) Announced retirements (EIA Form-860) Opportunity for New Generation in Coastal States *Excluding Hawaii and Alaska About 2,300 TWh of Opportunity Space by

13 Offshore Wind s Path to Achieve Competitive Cost Modeling Approach: 1. Estimate LCOE using NREL Geo-spatial Offshore Wind Cost Model (Beiter et al 2016) 2. Geo-spatial cost variables include water depth, wind resource, substructure type, turbine size, distance to port, distance to cable interconnect, installation method, sea state. 3. Temporal cost variables estimate cost reduction potential through Vet results against literature and industry Data 5. Fixed and Floating Scenarios for Likely Sites Show LCOE Below 100 MWh by 2025 in Some sites Beiter et al Geographic Variations Result in Wide Range of LCOE Floating Wind Can Reach Fixed Bottom Costs by 2030 Results Depend on Supply Chain Growth and Maturity 13

14 Estimated LCOE in the Atlantic Coast Region Large High Quality Resource - Many Sites reach $100/MWh by 2027 Beiter et al

15 Net Value Analysis Shows Future Economic Potential W/O Incentives LACE = Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy LCOE = Levelized Cost of Energy Net value = LACE - LCOE - If Net Value > 0, Site has Economic Potential Study found positive net value (economic potential) in many site by 2025 without direct economic incentives Beiter et al

16 Value Adders Can Affect the Economic Viability of Offshore Wind Source: 2016 DOE/DOI National Offshore Wind Strategy Beyond LCOE: Multiple factors that have not yet been quantified can increase the value of offshore wind to utilities and rate payers 16

17 86 GW Wind Vision Targets Require Regional Approach Region GW Technology Requirements North Atlantic Optimized floating wind, aggregated grid solutions South Atlantic Low wind speed turbines, hurricane survival designs Great Lakes Floating foundations designs for ice, ice resistant designs Gulf of Mexico 8.60 Low wind speed turbines, hurricane survival designs Pacific Coast Deep optimized floating, high sea state O&M 17

18 General Research Opportunities Energy prediction methods - Lower uncertainty in power curve Metocean site characterization data, sensors, methods, standards)- lower uncertainty in the design basis Enabling technologies for turbine scaling materials, controls, manufacturing, integrated infrastructure, etc. Design tools enabling innovation and system optimization (single turbines and arrays) Geotech soil/structure interactions, site-specific soil data Test facilities and methods for validation Standards (Floating, metocean, geotech, extreme events, etc.) 18

19 Research Strategy Understand current technology Look for gaps and weaknesses that add cost/risk/uncertainty Look beyond what industry is currently doing Innovate! Work together develop a national agenda 19

20 Photo Credit : Dennis Schroeder NREL Offshore Wind Power 20 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 20