Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña?

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1 Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña? Elwynn Taylor 1/12/2012 US Corn BPA (9.24K/ha) soy 41.5BPA (2.79K/ha)

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4 Madden-Julian Contributing to the weather today wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/

5 Daily T Deviation from Average Dec 2010 to Aug 2011, Dec 2011 to now 17 Mar It was not hot all the time It was La Niña La Niña T is more extreme Last year (2011) we did not have+30

6 Central Iowa corn yield trend (+2.05Bu/yr) exceeds the National (+1.87Bu/yr), but lags the state (+2.10 Bu/yr).

7 WC IA West Central Iowa trend = 2.35Bu/yr.

8 yrs yrs

9 $ per bushel Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Season-average Price Cost per Bushel Chad E Heart

10 stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4

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12 Reminder: All crop forecasts in this report are based on conditions on August 1 and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next district corn and soybean production forecasts, based on conditions as of September 1, will be released on September

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14 Record year 2011 Edging records of mid-teens &50s for old stations

15 Weather Stations Near You

16 Sheldon: Hot July & normal rain to mid-july

17 Normal is inch Normal is 12.06inch Normal is inch Iowa: Precipitation between dates (2012 to date)

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19 When I was a kid Iowa State University Extension

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21 COLD WARM Warm Winters Cold Winters

22 Sea Surface Anomaly

23 Past 3 La Niña peaked below 15 Past 3 dropped to negative values World weather stayed La Niña this time

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25

26 Some relief

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28 Roots could be very important

29 I Remember Algona 2002 Our creek is dry for the 1 st time in 100+ years! Heat stress was normal after silking, Gdd got bhind, rain was ample in Aug

30 La Niña La Niña began June 2010 La Niña peaked Nov 1, nd strongest since 1950 by time & strength. Weakened (but did not establish neutral condition) 14 June - 9 Sep 2011 Strengthened to Moderate La Niña 1 Oct 2011 Ended (likely) 22 Apr Then?

31 11-month outlook based on persistent climate anomalies Risk Wheel Decision Tool 70% risk of below trend 53% risk of above 70% risk of above Chance of U.S. Corn yield <90% of trend yield (Red), % (Blue), % (yellow), >110% (Green) for (left to right) La Niña, neutral, El Niño summers. Like analysis was done for ENSO+PDO+NAO combinations. Corn buyers/sellers can manage the risk of crop yield exceeding or falling below government determined demand levels. I S U

32 TWW Corn-Soy Outlook TWW (Taylor, Wisner, Wolter) Taylor likely crop yield per acre Wisner likely Dec price at harvest time Wolter likely El Niño/La Niña summer condition

33 La Niña Outlook 9 May % Chance La Niña persists into Summer 20% Chance El Niño begins immediately 50% Chance of Neutral?? Minimal chance of Neutral SOI 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $ % Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $ % Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 $ from Wisner 2/9/ Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35 Based on the evolution of recent atmosphereocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) Today DEC corn $5.18 Nov Soy $13.29

34 Preliminary 2012 Corn Risk 8 Mar % $ % $ $5.15 DEC ½ 10:30am 5/9/12 ENSO odds: Wolter, Contract $: Wisner, Yield odds: Taylor Wolter: Taylor: twitter.com/elwynntaylor Wisner:

35 Recovery of La Nina (termed a recovery as the historically mandatory 90-day period of neutral [blue zone] was not achieved). This is the 90-day moving average plot that serves as the forecast for the behavior of the official 152-day centered moving average. The 152-day entered neutral on 13 June 2011 & recovered to La Nina 9 Sep 2011, as the neutral period was less than 90 days the standard for a neutral condition was not achieved.

36 An Important storm has helped but not corrected the dryness in S Brazil & in Argentina (dry since Nov).

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38 Next 10 days: Warmish

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40 SOI The sea surface warming off Argentina has been significant over the past 20 days Mar 19, (SOI tending, as of now, toward neutral )

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