ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation
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1 ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation La Niña the little girl El Niño the little boy, the child LO: explain a complete ENSO cycle and assess the net affects on fish recruitment John K. Horne University of Washington
2 El Niño, Southern Oscillation Resources El Niño Southern Oscillation Southern Oscillation Index Calculating SOI Multivariate ENSO Index
3 Southern Pacific Circulation Equatorial winds pool warm water to the west, cold water upwells in east Southern Oscillation: oscillation in air pressure between tropical eastern and western Pacific Ocean waters. SOI air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin
4 El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies > 0.4 o C across the central Pacific for 5 months First signs of onset: 1. Rise in air pressure over Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia 2. Fall in air pressure over Tahiti, central, and eastern Pacific Ocean 3. Reduced trade winds in the south Pacific 4. Rain in the northern Peruvian deserts - trade wind change due to pressure change, builds water in west - drop in trade winds, water sloshes east 5. Warm water spreads from west Pacific and Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.
5 La Niña - cold ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific warm water further west than usual
6 ENSO Multivariate Index Warm ENSO El Niño Cold ENSO La Niña Based on: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C)
7 Warm Episode - effects stronger in south than north - correlation between 1 o and 2 o production, not as clear with fish recruitment
8 North American El Niño Events Temperature Anomalies SST in 47, 2 x 2 deg quadrants, Lluch-Cota 2003
9 Cold Episode
10 ENSO Relative Strengths
11 Transition from La nina to El nino
12 What Effects of ENSO on Fish? Northern hemisphere: El Niño events have tropical, warm water species moving north (extend range). Cold water species move north or into deeper water (restrict range). Surface-oriented, schooling fish disperse and move deeper. Fishes that remain in an affected region experience reduced growth, reproduction, and survival. Commercial species move from traditional fishing grounds
13 Skipjack Tuna Catch and SST Katsuwonus pelamis - coherence between o C water (warm pool) and tuna catch - influences distribution - ENSO predictions year in advance, might predict tuna - since predictable, might allow separation of fishery and climate effects on local tuna abundances Lehodey et al. 1997
14 ENSO & Upwelling Connection - warm, nutrient poor water replaces cold nutrient rich water - primary production reduced, trophic & production reduced Example Peruvian anchovy fishery: million tonnes, million tonnes, million tonnes
15 El Niño and La Niña North El Niño events: 5 17 months; average 11; most start between Mar-June; most end Jan-April; average intensity 1.5 o C La Niña events: 6 23 months; average 11.7; average intensity 1.3 o C
16 North Pacific Temperature Anomalies Why high latitude El Niño? (Wallace 1985) - propagating coastally trapped Kelvin waves - surface winds (connected globally)
17 Autocorrelation: Catch & Recruitment - range from 0.9 Central Alaskan Pink to WC sablefish - salmon, flatfish and Gulf of Alaska rockfish stocks high autocorrelation coefficients >0.4 - gadid stocks, west coast sablefish, Atka mackerel, Pacific herring, west coast flatfish, and west coast rockfish stocks low autocorrelation coefficients < of 29 salmon stocks > 0.4 Hollowed et al. 2001
18 Recruitment and Niño north - EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock low autocorrelation in recruitment - proportion of strong year classes was higher in Niño North conditions. - Bering Sea gadid populations not consistent
19 Links to Larger Temporal Scales Frequency of ENSO events has increased during positive phase of PDO in late 1970 s - gadid populations appear to respond to large-scale forcing at the temporal scale of ENSO forcing. - Pacific salmon and some flatfish stocks show production patterns consistent with the oscillations of the PDO. Why? response by zooplankton to oceanic conditions
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