New Normal and La Niñas: Dealing with Natural Climate Now and in the Future James Jackson Garriss /Browning Media

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1 New Normal and La Niñas: Dealing with Natural Climate Now and in the Future 2018 James Jackson Garriss /Browning Media

2 Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Long term climate conditions include a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Winter is going to be influenced by weak La Niña conditions This will maintain a positive PNA (Pacific North American) Arctic pattern. Volcanic activity has been mild but seismic activity has increased in Alaska and Russia. If volcanoes from either region erupt over 7km high it will increase negative PNA activity. The current outlook for the Canadian winter is cold and snowy along southern and southeastern regions with warm and wet conditions the western and southwestern provinces. along Spring will remain cool if the La Niña continues throughout (models show between 65% 70% possibility) which may create refrigerator effects along the Great Lakes regions. Commodity prices normally go down after a La Niña. James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 2

3 LONG TERM FORCES Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) SHORT TERM FORCES La Niña/El Niño North Atlantic Oscillation Arctic Oscillation Volcanic Activity Long term forces have reached a tipping point. TRENDS Increased Storms, Hurricanes & Blizzards Shifts in Precipitation More Temperature Extremes Monsoon Strength Changed SECTORS AFFECTED Agriculture Energy Insurance Government Infrastructure Tourism OUTCOMES Profits & Loss James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 3

4 Clouds, the debris from large volcanoes, and man-made aerosols can reflect back sunlight and change rainfall patterns. James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 4

5 James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 5

6 Positive North American Arctic Oscillation Negative North American Arctic Oscillation James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 6

7 North Atlantic volcanoes change the jetstream over the Atlantic. North Pacific volcanoes change the jetstream over the Pacific. Strong Icelandic Low Positive NAO James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 7

8 PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation 50 year cycle The patterns of tropical marine air and winds are shaped by the El Niño/La Niña cycle and MJOs. 8

9 The long-term Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) turned positive in The Gulf stream flows faster. The North Atlantic warms. James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 9

10 The AMO Warm AMO Cool AMO The warm phase of the AMO diverts precipitation from the Gulf, Great Plains and Prairie Provinces. This increases the risk of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 10

Negative cool PDO 2006 present Positive warm PDO 1976 1998 The Pacific

11 The PDO There is a new paradigm in the Pacific The Pacific Decadal Oscillation tipped from a positive to a negative trend in Negative cool PDO 2006 present Positive warm PDO The Pacific Decadal Oscillation- Each phase lasts years James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 11

The PDO s impact on precipitation Winners Midwest US STRONGER MONSOON: Northern & Central China STRONGER MONSOON: India STRONGER MONSOON: Japan Brazil Southern Africa STRONGER MONSOON: Eastern

12 The PDO s impact on precipitation Winners Midwest US STRONGER MONSOON: Northern & Central China STRONGER MONSOON: India STRONGER MONSOON: Japan Brazil Southern Africa STRONGER MONSOON: Eastern Australia Losers California/Southwest US WEAKER MONSOON: Southern China WEAKER MONSOON: Pakistan WEAKER MONSOON: North Korea Andes Republics/ Southern Argentina East Africa WEAKER MONSOON: Western Australia James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 12

13 La Niña James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 13

14 El Niño cooler than normal La Niña El Niños strengthen the impact of wet marine air. La Niñas weaken it.

15 We did have a short weak La Niña that began in late summer. It lasted 5 seasons (7 months) halted in January and was declared over in early February. Currently La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (~65% 75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter , with a 51% chance of continuation through February April 2018 NOAA 15

The impact on Food Prices Food prices drop:

*jump is more extreme at the beginning of

16 The impact on Food Prices Food prices drop: cool PDO + warm El Niño warm PDO + cool La Niña Courtesy FAO Food prices jump*: cool PDO + cool La Niña warm PDO + warm El Niño *jump is more extreme at the beginning of the cycle James Jackson Garriss/ Browning Media 16

17 Northern Hemisphere Temperature Outlook Temperature anomalies for the 2017/18 winter season for North America James Jackson Garriss / Browning Media 1 7

18 EARLY WINTER Early December will have a period of Negative PNA oscillation. This will push more Arctic air into southern Canada and the northern US. As it dissipates, cold temperatures will linger into February. James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 18

19 LATE WINTER Late winter will have a more normal positive PNA oscillation. This keep cool air along southern Canada but warm up parts of the US. The warm Atlantic meshing with the cool arctic air will increase snowfall activity along southeastern Canada. James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 19

20 EARLY WINTER LATE WINTER Southeastern Canada will maintain cool and wet conditions throughout much of winter and into early spring. We can anticipate lake or refrigerator affect in early spring James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 20

21 Ontario Average FIRST Frost Dates ontario first frostdate map.php 21

22 Ontario Average LAST Frost Dates ontario first frostdate map.php 22

23 NDVI Departure from Average (PROBA V) April 11 20, 2017 June 11 20, 2017 May 11-20, 2017 July 11-20, James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 23

Drought Report November 2017 http://maps.canada.ca/journal/contenten.html?

24 Drought Report November James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 24

25 Eastern Canada Crop Health vs. Average APRIL April 23 May 8, 2006 April 23 May 8, 2009 April 7 22, James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 25

26 Eastern Canada Crop Health vs. Average: Late May Early June May 25-June 9, 2006 May 25-June 9, 2009 May 25-June 9, James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 26

27 Eastern Canada Crop Health vs. Average: Late June Early July June 26-July 11, 2006 June 26-July 11, 2009 June 25-July 11, James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 27

28 Eastern Canada Crop Health vs. Average: Late July Early Aug July 28-August 12, 2006 July 28-August 12, 2009 July 28-August 12, James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 28

29 Eastern Canada Crop Health vs. Average: Late August Early Sept August 29- Sept 7, 2006 August 29- Sept 7, 2009 August 29- Sept 7, James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 29

30 Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Long term climate conditions include a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Winter is going to be influenced by weak La Niña conditions This will maintain a positive PNA (Pacific North American) Arctic pattern. Volcanic activity has been mild but seismic activity has increased in Alaska and Russia. If volcanoes from either region erupt over 7km high it will increase negative PNA activity. The current outlook for the Canadian winter is cold and snowy along southern and southeastern regions with warm and wet conditions the western and southwestern provinces. along Spring will remain cool if the La Niña continues throughout (models show between 65% 70% possibility) which may create refrigerator effects along the Great Lakes regions. Commodity prices normally go down after a La Niña. James JacksonGarriss / Browning Media 30

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2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss. El Niño, the Twisted Atlantic and the Effect on Global Agriculture

2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss. El Niño, the Twisted Atlantic and the Effect on Global Agriculture 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss El Niño, the Twisted Atlantic and the Effect on Global Agriculture Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool