Crunch time for the European gas system: reliability of supply

Transcription

1 Crunch time for the European gas system: reliability of supply Mr. K. Mikelsons Latvian Power Company Latvenergo Dr. V. Kreslins and Dr. K. Brinkis Dispatcher Center of the Baltic Power Systems Prof., Dr. V. Zebergs and Prof., Dr. N. Zeltins Institute of Physical Energetics

2 Figure 1. Map of gas transmissions pipelines

3 Table 1. Annual gas consumption volumes (10 9 m 3 )

4 Country Existing Perspective Latvia (8 UGS) Poland Slovakia Hungary Czech Republic Romania Slovenia Bulgaria Table 2. The UGS capacities in Eastern Europe (10 9 m 3 )

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6 Figure 2. Illustration of geological conditions of Latvian UGS (existing Inchukalns UGS)

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10 The group of the consumer mode Specific weight (%) Longterm deviations (%) The amount of reserves against the yearly fluctuation of consumption (%) Consumers for heating ,0 Consumers for technological purposes ,5 Total ,5 Table 3. The amount of the reserves needed for the compensation of longterm gas consumption fluctuations in Latvia

11 Figure 3. Baltic Sea underwater gas pipeline Russia Germany

12 Figure 4. Prospects of the developing gas supply system and number of defects in main pipelines years

13 Nation No. of UGS Facilities Total Installed Working Gas Volume of UGS Facilities (10 6 m³) Germany (30%) * 42(13) (5 754) Netherlands Poland Belgium Denmark Sweden 1 9 Latvia (existing) Latvia (new) * Proportional to the part of Germany gas consumption supplied from Russia Table4. UGS potential capacity for reservation Baltic submerging pipeline Russia Germany

14 P GSS < P GSS+UGS P GSS < P GSS + ΔP 1 + ΔP ΔP n P GSS - the profit from the gas supply system without UGS P GSS+UGS - the profit from the gas supply system with UGS ΔP1 + ΔP2 + + ΔPn - extra profits from the use of UGS due to various effects from the use of UGS

15 Figure 5. Year timetable gas supply in Russia (FSU former the Soviet Union republics)

16 Results To provide customers with reliable and secure gas supply, market situation have been analyzed for the region of countries, including Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland and NW Russia for the time period that ends in year 2020, and the following main conclusions have been drawn: Need for natural gas will increase; Seasonal unevenness of gas consumption will remain; In order to ensure reliable gas supply for Finnish customers and meet their increasing demands, underground gas storage is advised to be used; Due to lack of possibility to develop seasonal underground gas storage in Finland and limited options for development of other storages in the region it is advised to use Incukalns Underground Gas Storage in Latvia, which already is used for customers in Latvia, Estonia, NW Russia and, most probably, in the nearest future will be used for Lithuanian customers on commercial terms too; For gas supply from Incukalns Underground Gas Storage new submarine gas pipeline shall be built; In order to meet increasing demand for gas storage volume, Incukalns Underground Gas Storage has to be expended. Initial calculations show that there are certain perspectives to incorporate new perspective UGS capacities in Latvia (total capacity over m 3 ) into European gas supply system especially due to insufficient gas supply security to Europe.

17 References Mikelsons K., Davis A., Zebergs V., Zeltins N. (2004) Latvian underground gas storage facilities for the development of a safe gas and power supply system of North European gas /IRAEE International Conference on "Energy & Security in the Changing World", Teheran, Iran, CD ROM Joint Stock Company Latvijas Gaze Annual Report of Davis A., Jesinska A., Kreslins A., Zebergs V., Zeltins N. (2006) INCREASING ROLE OF UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGES FOR RELIABE SUPPLY OF GAS TO LATVIA, LITHUANIA, ESTONIA, FINLAND AND NW RUSSIA AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INCUKALNS UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE // 23rd World Gas Conference, June 5 9, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, CD ROM PROGRAMME COMMITTEE A REPORT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (2006) Chairman Daniel Arias, Argentina // 23rd World Gas Conference June 5 9, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, CD ROM UNDERGROUND STORAGE OF GAS (2006) Chairperson Sergey Khan, Russia, REPORT PREPARED ON THE WORK OF THE IGU TASK FORCE R&D , Report of Working Committee 2 TRIENNIUM //23rd World Gas Conference June 5 9, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, CD ROM Dr. S.A. Khan (2006) JSC GAZPROM LONG-TERM GAS RESERVATION SYSTEM AS FACTOR OF RELIABILITY AND ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY// 23rd World Gas Conference, June 5 9, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, CD ROM

18 Thank you for attention!!!