VRAKA. A Risk Assessment Method for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks. Wrecks of the World Gothenburg, October 2015
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1 A Assessment Method for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks Wrecks of the World Gothenburg, October 2015 Hanna Landquist, Lars Rosén, Ida-Maja Hassellöv, Andreas Lindhe, Tommy Norberg Shipwrecks in Sweden Pre-study, Wreck remediation. (I-M. Hassellöv, 2007) Environmental risks from Shipwrecks. (SMA, 2011) -project and cooperation within SWERA and with SMA 1
2 Decision support on potentially polluting shipwrecks assessment Probabilistic approach Probability of release Environmental consequences (Disney, 1951) The concept of risk Is a function of and probability consequence 2
3 analysis Scope definition Hazard identification estimation evaluation tolerability decisions Analysis of options assessment reduction/control Decisions making Implementation Monitoring management Tool for estimation of the probability of release Method for estimation of environmental consequences 3
4 Part 1 Tool for estimation of the probability of release analysis Scope definition Hazard identification estimation evaluation tolerability decisions Analysis of options assessment reduction/control Decisions making Implementation Monitoring management The tool Hazardous substance Activities identified Indicators identified Expert elicitation of information about the activities Expert elicitation of information about relations of activities an indicators. Intensity of hazardous activities Generic probability of opening Site specific indicators Updated probability of opening Probability of release of hazardous substances 4
5 The tool Fault tree Top event AND-gate OR-gate Intermediate event A Intermediate event B Basic event 1 Basic event 2 Basic event 3 Basic event 4 The tool Release of hazardous substances Opening in the wreck Hazardous substance is present Construction work Intensity Cargo/Bunker is hazardous Hazardous bunker/cargo is still contained An opening in the wreck needs to occur AND there has has to be oil still contained in the wreck Deterioration Diving Landslides/ Earth quakes Military activity Ship traffic Intensity Intensity Intensity Intensity Storms/ Extreme weather Intensity AND-gate Trawling Intensity OR-gate 5
6 The tool Uncertainties can be accounted for Distributions rather than point values Range of results The tool Hazardous substance Assessor input Intensity of hazarouds events Indicator information Bunker/cargo information Intensity of hazardous activities Generic probability of opening Site specific indicators Updated probability of opening Probability of release of hazardous substances 6
7 The tool Results as a probability distribution Analysis of indata more information needed? Tool for estimation of the probability of release Method for estimation of environmental consequences 7
8 Part 2 Method for estimation of environmental consequences analysis Scope definition Hazard identification estimation evaluation tolerability decisions Analysis of options assessment reduction/control Decisions making Implementation Monitoring management 4 Tiers available Depending on available resources Adaption to country and tools availabe 8
9 Tier 1 P Release x Expected amount of oil = Total or Separate comparative analysis of P release and Expected amount of oil Tier 2 Expected volume from Low severity Moderate severity High severity Volume <100 m m 3 > 500 m 3 Probability of release from Distance to shore Sensitivity < 10 nm 1 10 nm < 1 nm Nearest shore is: Sand, steep cliffs or rock walls or facilities. Nearest shore is: Cliff beaches, pebble, boulder or gravel beaches. Nearest shore is: Reedbeds, meadows, fine sediment beaches. or mixed beaches 9
10 Tier 3 Tools for oil spill trajectory modelling and sensitivity of receptors SeaTrack Web The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Digital Environmental Atlas County Administrative Board Västra Götaland, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Swedish Environmental Protection agency Tier 3 SeaTrack Web Oil spill trajectory simulation Release from the sea bottom 10
11 Tier 3 Digital Environmental Atlas Funcitional for Swedish coast Ongoing work for the Baltic sea Tier 3 Combine the two visually Obtain an idea of how much oil will end up where Compare to other wrecks, with the probability of a release 11
12 Tier 4 The future A Digital Environmental Atlas for the Baltic Sea Probability mapping in SeaTrack Web Tier 4 The future Combined GIS-based tool Efficient risk assessment tool. 12
13 Application of the results Results depend on in-data Type Quality Adquate application of results Decision support Mitigation measures Efficient solution Further work analysis Scope definition Hazard identification estimation evaluation tolerability decisions Analysis of options assessment reduction/control Decisions making Implementation Monitoring management 13
14 Publications Report SWERA First and second report from Environmental risks from sunken shipwrecks Paper to the conference Evaluating the needs of risk assessment methods of potentially polluting Shipwrecks. (Landquist et al., 2013) A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from Shipwrecks. (Landquist et al., 2014) 14
15 Thank you Hanna Landquist 15
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