System Flexibility Indicators

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1 System Flexibility Indicators Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Operational Forum 2011

2 Introduction - recap There is potential for the recent increases in volatility of gas flows to continue in future years, driven in particular by: Growth in renewable sources of electricity generation CCGTs may become the marginal source of generation New sources of gas supply (more LNG, more fast cycling storage etc.) Greater supply, demand and linepack variation may result, both within day and across days A more flexible NTS may therefore be required by our customers 2

3 Introduction - recap It is our intention to monitor and report on indicators of such trends to help indicate any system / regime requirement for change 2 industry workshops were held in 2009 to develop leading and lagging indicators Final Proposals on indicators were presented to the February 2010 Transmission Workstream Agreed to report on indicators to Operational Forum on a regular basis 3

4 Introduction update The first presentation given at the May 2010 operational forum covered the full set of agreed indicators This second presentation (delayed from December) will be on a subset of the indicators with the full pack made available online shortly after today s presentation We were originally hoping to be able to present an extension of the original set of indicators at this forum which focused on information provision accuracy and wind impact to gas consumption Work is still ongoing in these areas to produce simple / meaningful indicators which, in conjunction to potential responses to Ofgem s consultation on NTS flexibility capacity, we hope to be able to present on an extension / improvement to this original design later this year 4

5 Phase 1 Leading Indicators Reminder Full Set Supply Day on day difference in proportion of supply from the North & South Day on day difference in supply by group LNG UKCS Norway ICs Storage Linepack Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes Frequency of linepack changes at particular thresholds Within day PCLP changes Demand Within day demand variation by sector Flow flexibility usage by sector ICs Storage Power stations DN offtakes 5

6 Phase 1 Lagging Indicators Reminder Full Set Supply Use of Operating Margins gas Use of entry buybacks Use of entry scalebacks Supply & Demand Residual balancing frequency Residual balancing volumes Residual balancing costs 6

7 Leading Supply Indicators Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Subset

8 Leading Supply Indicator 1: Day to Day North / South Supply Volatility Maximum day-to-day difference in percentage of supply from Northern ASEPs, by month 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 This graph shows the maximum day on day change per month in the percentage of total supply from Northern ASEPs. Eg. if on one day 255 mcmd came from North and 117 mcmd from South (68% from North) then on the next day 257 mcmd came from North and 102 mcmd from South (71% from North), the day to day percentage change would be 3%. If this was the highest in that month, 3% would be plotted on the graph. 8

9 Leading Supply Indicator 1: Day to Day North / South Supply Volatility 100% Percentage of supply from Northern and Southern ASEPs 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9 01/10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/2010 North % South %

10 Leading Supply Indicator 1: Day to Day Conventional supply Volatility Supply from Conventional and LNG (Incl SRS/MRS) ASEPs /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/ /06/ /10/ /02/2010 mcm 01/06/ /10/2010 Conventional LNG

11 Leading Supply Indicator 2: Percentage of supply accounted for by group Average day-to-day absolute difference in percentage of supply from LNG, by month 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Average of LNG% abs day delta 6 month rolling Average of LNG% abs day delta This shows the average day on day change per month in the percentage of total supply from this supply group. 11

12 Leading Linepack Indicators Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

13 NTS Flow, Pressure & Flexibility Average flow (1/24 th rate) Flow Removing Linepack from NTS Increasing Linepack Usage Replenishing Linepack to NTS Flow profile varying about the 1/24 th rate Time Max Daily Pressure Minimum pressure at point where depletion of linepack ceases Min Daily Pressure Pressure Increases the severity of NTS pressure drop Finite limit of flexibility linked to compression/ flow rates required to return to SoD pressure from EoD pressure 06:00 Start of Day (SoD) 22:00 06:00 Time 13

14 Leading Linepack Indicator 1: Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes Daily Range of Hourly Linepack: Monthly Maximum Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 mcm Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 This graph plots the maximum range on any day in each month between the highest and lowest hourly NTS linepack. Eg. if the highest hourly linepack recorded was 330 mcm and the lowest was 315 mcm on the same day and that constituted the largest daily range in that particular month, 15 mcm would be plotted on the graph for that month. 14

15 Leading Linepack Indicator 1: Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes Within day max-min range of NTS linepack (mcm) 15 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Winter 2008/9 Winter 2009/10 Rolling 30 day average Winter 2010/11

16 Leading Linepack Indicator 1: Maximum daily range of within day linepack changes Within day max-min range of NTS linepack (mcm) Oct-09 Oct-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Jan-10 Feb-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Apr-10 Apr-10 May-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Winter 2009/10 GBA Dates > 04/1/2010 > 07/1/2010 > 09/01/2010 Rolling 30 day average Winter 2010/11

17 Leading Demand Indicators Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

18 Leading Demand Indicator 1: Within day demand variation by sector Hourly Power Station Demand: Daily Maximum Minus Minimum /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/2010 mcm / hour 05/06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/2010

19 Leading Demand Indicator 1: Within day demand variation by sector Hourly LDZ Demand: Daily Maximum Minus Minimum /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /04/ /05/2010 mcm / hour 05/06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/2010

20 Lagging Indicators Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line.

21 Lagging Supply & Demand Indicator 1: Number of days of residual balancing actions Residual Balancing Actions - Number of days days to 20 Dec Calendar Year Buy Sell Buy and Sell 21

22 Lagging Supply and Demand Indicator 2: Residual Balancing Annual Volumes Residual Balancing Actions - Annual Volumes m cm to 20 Dec Calendar Year Buy Sell 22

23 Summary We continue to see a number of the daily supply indicators being driven by the increased usage of LNG (e.g. upward trends in % day to day differences and locational splits). Discernable trends are also being established on increased within-day linepack usage (resultant supply / demand mismatch). Further work on component elements and demand correlation is underway. Indicators on information provision accuracy (System Input and Offtake), Improvements to Phase I indicators and impact on wind penetration will be presented through

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