An early warning system to predict house price bubbles

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "An early warning system to predict house price bubbles"

Transcription

1 An early warning system to predict house price bubbles Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin DIW Berlin Why is the topic relevant? Bubbles in housing prices can impede the real economic evolution Prices do not indicate scarcity, distorts allocation of resources House price bubbles can inflate over long periods, high risk of recession after their burst Observed prices include both fundamental and speculative components Separation depends on underlying model Early detection can improve policy reactions 1

2 Early warning system Based on two-stage procedure Previous bubbles in housing markets need to be identified (bubble chronology) Statistical model fitted to explain the chronology Results might vary with empirical models Robustness tests to identify critical price drivers Early warning system for panel of countries or regions, as bubbles are rare events Monetary policy identical for regions within a country Chronology of price bubbles Identification using structural econometric models and filter methods Country-by-country since bubbles are distributed heterogeneously across panel members Dominance of structural models Prices can be linked to macroeconomic conditions (fundmentals) Filter methods to validate structural bubbles Structural bubbles need to be confirmed, periods should at least partially overlap 2

3 Filter and structural models Filter: cycle = rp trend > θσ ( cycle ) it it it i i Regression: p = α X + ε, ˆ ε > ρσ ( ε ) it i it it it i it Deviations from HP trend and (smoothed) residuals from structural regression should exceed threshold Threshold expressed as a multiple of standard deviations, might differ across panel members Thresholds by iteration to obtain maximum concordance Set of fundamentals Potential drivers of excessive house price excluded in model fit If not, bubbles are wiped out, as OLS provides optimal fit Fundamental variables bear correct sign Higher income triggers rising house prices Increasing real interest rates will worse financing conditions and dampen house prices High urbanization implies lower migration pressure, negative impact on house prices 3

4 Chronology house price bubbles Australien Kanada Frankreich Deutschland q3 1989q3 1992q3 1995q3 1998q3 2001q3 2004q3 2007q3 1970q2 1975q2 1980q2 1985q2 1990q2 1995q2 2000q2 2005q2 1970q2 1975q2 1980q2 1985q2 1990q2 1995q2 2000q2 2005q2 1991q2 1994q2 1997q2 2000q2 2003q2 2006q2 2009q2 Italien Japan Niederlande Portugal q2 1985q2 1989q2 1993q2 1997q2 2001q2 2005q2 2009q2 1969q4 1974q4 1979q4 1984q4 1989q4 1994q4 1999q4 2004q4 2009q4 1977q2 1982q2 1987q2 1992q2 1997q2 2002q2 2007q2 1995q2 1997q2 1999q2 2001q2 2003q2 2005q2 2007q2 2009q Spanien Schweden Schweiz UK 1971q2 1976q2 1981q2 1986q2 1991q2 1996q2 2001q2 2006q2 1993q2 1996q2 1999q2 2002q2 2005q2 2008q2 1970q2 1975q2 1980q2 1985q2 1990q2 1995q2 2000q2 1971q1 1976q1 1981q1 1986q1 1991q1 1996q1 2001q1 2006q1 USA q2 1980q2 1985q2 1990q2 1995q2 2000q2 2005q2 Distribution of bubbles Number of bubbles Duration (Quarter) Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland UK USA

5 Prediction of bubbles Identification of potential variables driving the emergence and inflation of bubbles Calibrated to explain the bubble chronology Signal approach Signal for bubble extracted, if particular variable exceeds critical value Probability for presence of bubbles captured by logit and probit models Panel with country fixed effects, institutional conditions Signal approach Evolution of variables in periods of previous bubbles Standardization of variables to eliminate country specific impact on overall volatility Thresholds ensure optimal bubble forecast for individual variable Bubbles should be detected, false alarms avoided Signal extracted, if variable above threshold Overall indicator results from the aggregation of individual signals 5

6 Thresholds for signal extraction Event Bubble No bubble Signal a b No signal c d z i a d = + a + c b + d max Ratio of correctly predicted bubbles non bubbles) to all bubbles (non bubbles) Variables with more accurate forecasts receive higher weight in overall indicator Logit and probit models Binary response model (bubble, no bubble) Probability for the presence of bubble traced to set of variables Logistic or standard normal distribution Instead of thresholds, regressors are evaluated by statistical significance Ordering of contribution of regressors by their log-odds ratio Goodness-of fit measures to rank different approaches 6

7 Empirical results Signal-, logit- and probit model based on the same set of variables Excessive liquidity and credit conditions are highly relevant to predict speculative housing bubbles Confirms previous findings But other variables are also important Investment ratios, public finances, interest rates Logit and probit models outperform the signal approach Variables to predict bubbles Weights Signal Logit Short term interest rates 15.0 Real exchange rate Rent 5.0 House prices / income House prices / rent Investment ratio Credit growth GDP growth Liquidity (based on M3) Public finances Financial regulation 7.3 7

8 Ranking of models In sample Out of sample Signal approach Logit model Probit model QPS = y p T j 2 ( it it ) min T t = 1 Quadratic probability score: y is (0, 1) variable p predicted probability for a bubble One-step recursive forecasts, perfect foresight for exogeneous variables Logit detection of bubbles Australien Kanada Frankreich Deutschland 1986Q3 1993Q3 2000Q3 2007Q3 1970Q4 1981Q4 1992Q4 2003Q4 1980Q3 1988Q3 1996Q3 2004Q3 1991Q2 1996Q2 2001Q2 2006Q2 Italien Japan Niederlande Spanien 1997Q2 2001Q2 2005Q2 2009Q2 1991Q4 1996Q4 2001Q4 2006Q4 1991Q1 1996Q1 2001Q1 2006Q1 1998Q2 2002Q2 2006Q2 Schweden Schweiz UK USA 1996Q2 2000Q2 2004Q2 2008Q2 1985Q4 1990Q4 1995Q4 2000Q4 1983Q1 1991Q1 1999Q1 2007Q1 1975Q2 1985Q2 1995Q2 2005Q2 8

9 Conclusions Development of a tool for early detection of speculative bubbles in housing markets Robustness analysis of results Logit and probit outperform signal approach Probably not in general, since different weights for threshold components can affect results Liquidity and credit variables not sufficient to predict bubbles Represent 35 (logit) and 55 (signal) percent of forecast of overall indicator Further information Early warning systems to detect price bubbles in the stock and housing market Sponsored by the German Ministry of Finance An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles, Economics: Open Access, Open Assessment E-Journal 7, (Dreger and Kholodilin). 9

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins

RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins RBC Economics Financial Update Dawn Desjardins CICA/RBC Q4 2011 Business Monitor Economic Results Overview Business and Economic Optimism Begin to Stablize 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % National Optimism

More information

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project

Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott www.greatdepressionsbook.com Cole and Ohanian, The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective,

More information

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO

sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO The economy and the banking sector: recent developments VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO January 2006 Recent performance of the economy and prospects Factors behind the period of slow growth Challenges to the Banking

More information

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy

Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy Understanding the interest-rate growth differential: its importance in long-term debt projections and for policy David Turner, OECD UN DESA Expert Group Meeting on the World Economy, LINK Project October

More information

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies

Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic

More information

Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP)

Session 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP) Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 1 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth

More information

Inequality in America : The 1% in International and Historical Perspective

Inequality in America : The 1% in International and Historical Perspective Inequality in America : The 1% in International and Historical Perspective Thomas Piketty Paris School of Economics Columbia University, September 27 2012 Inequality & capitalism in the long run Long run

More information

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real

More information

The Aftermath of Global Financial Crises

The Aftermath of Global Financial Crises The Aftermath of Global Financial Crises Carmen M. Reinhart, University of Maryland, NBER, and CEPR Brookings Institution Washington DC, April 20, 2009 This talk is based on several works with Kenneth

More information

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.

The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and

More information

Real Time Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity

Real Time Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity Indicators Asset Price : A Role for Global Liquidity Lucia Alessi European Central Bank Carsten Detken Milan, 24 June 2010 The need for Models The set up of an System is one of the key tasks of the European

More information

The U.S. Economic Outlook

The U.S. Economic Outlook The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com

More information

Global Economic Briefing: Industrial Production

Global Economic Briefing: Industrial Production Global Economic Briefing: Industrial Production November 27, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 4-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites

More information

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook

Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook 2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and

More information

Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?

Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk? Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk? Jiahan Li Assistant professor of Statistics University of Notre Dame Joint work with Wei Wang and Ilias Tsiakas

More information

How predictable are the FIFA worldcup football outcomes? An empirical analysis

How predictable are the FIFA worldcup football outcomes? An empirical analysis Applied Economics Letters, 2008, 15, 1171 1176 How predictable are the FIFA worldcup football outcomes? An empirical analysis Saumik Paul* and Ronita Mitra Department of Economics, Claremont Graduate University,

More information

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. Comparing management performances of Belgian Football clubs. Stefan Kesenne

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS. Comparing management performances of Belgian Football clubs. Stefan Kesenne DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Comparing management performances of Belgian Football clubs Stefan Kesenne UNIVERSITY OF ANTWERP Faculty of Applied Economics Stadscampus Prinsstraat 13, B.213 BE-2000 Antwerpen

More information

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry

5. Golf Industry Trends and Developments in the US 6. The US Macro Economy Factors and Impact over Golf Industry TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Golf Industry Performance Worldwide 1.1. Overview 1.2. Global Golf Equipment Demand and Economy 2. The US Golf Industry Overview 2.1. Industry Segmentation 3. Industry Performance

More information

Global Economic Indicators: Global Leading Indicators

Global Economic Indicators: Global Leading Indicators Global Economic Indicators: Global Leading Indicators November 27, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-2-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit

More information

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.

More information

Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada

Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September

More information

Demography Series: China

Demography Series: China Demography Series: China April 9, 212 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Sailesh S Radha 83-786-1368 sradha@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table Of Contents Table

More information

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors

MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.

More information

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017

Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017 Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards

More information

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times The Shifts and the Shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Peterson Institute for International Economics 9 th October 2014 Washington DC The Shifts and the

More information

History of the European Monetary Integration

History of the European Monetary Integration History of the European Monetary Integration European Payment Union (1950-1958) Facilitated multilateral clearing of payment imbalances. The Bank of International Settlements acted as a clearing house.

More information

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry

Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA

More information

a) List and define all assumptions for multiple OLS regression. These are all listed in section 6.5

a) List and define all assumptions for multiple OLS regression. These are all listed in section 6.5 Prof. C. M. Dalton ECN 209A Spring 2015 Practice Problems (After HW1, HW2, before HW3) CORRECTED VERSION Question 1. Draw and describe a relationship with heteroskedastic errors. Support your claim with

More information

The impact of human capital accounting on the efficiency of English professional football clubs

The impact of human capital accounting on the efficiency of English professional football clubs MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive The impact of human capital accounting on the efficiency of English professional football clubs Anna Goshunova Institute of Finance and Economics, KFU 17 February 2013

More information

Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013

Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers. UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Retrenchment or Stagnation: Lessons from Japan s Lost Decades. Andrew Smithers UK-Japan 21 st Century Group Conference 3 rd May, 2013 Slide 1. The Conventional Wisdom. Japan has suffered from two lost

More information

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth

Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty. Canada headed for another year of solid growth ECONOMICS I RESEARCH Global economy s strong momentum intact despite elevated level of uncertainty Canada headed for another year of solid growth Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919

More information

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?

Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation

More information

Trade Integration and Political Radicalization: German Evidence from the Rise of Eastern Manufacturing Competition

Trade Integration and Political Radicalization: German Evidence from the Rise of Eastern Manufacturing Competition Trade Integration and Political Radicalization: German Evidence from the Rise of Eastern Manufacturing Competition Christian Dippel (UCLA & NBER), Robert Gold (IfW Kiel), Stephan Heblich (Bristol) November

More information

The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Michael Strauss Chief Economist and Chief Investment Strategist Commonfund October 16, 2012 The U.S. & World Economy: The Good, the Bad, and the

More information

Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade

Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade November 15, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

More information

Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade

Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade Global Economic Indicators: Eurozone Trade January 15, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box Table

More information

AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven.

AREA TOTALS OECD Composite Leading Indicators. OECD Total. OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries. Major Five Asia. Major Seven. Reference series Composite leading indicators OECD Composite Leading Indicators AREA TOTALS 7-03- 19 OECD Total 19 OECD + Major 6 Non Member Countries 19 Major Seven 19 Major Five Asia 19 Euro area 19

More information

The Economy of Finland

The Economy of Finland The Economy of Finland Aug 30st 2013, Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs Presentation for the American Fulbright Grantees Petteri Rautaporras, Economist at the Federation of Finnish Technology Industries

More information

First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History

First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History Nitzan / 3270 GPE I I. Capitalism: A Brief History / 1 First Lecture Capitalism: A Brief History Definition Economic system? Private ownership / profit motive / wage labour Beginnings 16 th century: Feudal

More information

Trends and Cycles in China s Macroeconomy: A Multivariate Approach 1

Trends and Cycles in China s Macroeconomy: A Multivariate Approach 1 Trends and Cycles in China s Macroeconomy: A Multivariate Approach 1 Chun Chang a Daniel F. Waggoner b Tao Zha c Mei Zhu d a SAIF, Shanghai Jiao Tong University b Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta c FRB

More information

Modelling residential prices with cointegration techniques and automatic selection algorithms

Modelling residential prices with cointegration techniques and automatic selection algorithms Modelling residential prices with cointegration techniques and automatic selection algorithms Ramiro J. Rodríguez A presentation for ERES 2014 - PhD Sessions Bucharest, Rumania The opinions and analyses

More information

Strategies for joining the European Economic and Monetary Union: A Comparative Analysis of Possible Scenarios.

Strategies for joining the European Economic and Monetary Union: A Comparative Analysis of Possible Scenarios. This paper (presented on the CASE internal seminar on May, 28 2003) summarizes the preliminary results of the research conducted within the frames of the project entitled Strategies for joining the European

More information

Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai

Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling, February 5-6, 28, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand Comparison of urban energy use and carbon emission in Tokyo,

More information

Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa It is widely known the success of Asian Tigers But is less known that Portugal was one of the few countries, similar to the Asian Tigers, that changed from a

More information

Public Procurement Indicators 2015

Public Procurement Indicators 2015 Public Procurement Indicators 21 DG GROW G4 - Innovative and e-procurement December 19, 216 1 Summary of main facts This document provides various indicators describing the public procurement market in

More information

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand

Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;

More information

Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies

Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies FINALLY REVISED August, 2008 Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies Chapter 4: Changing Economic Structures of the Asian Economies 4.1 Selected Structural Parameters of the Asian

More information

The economic value of the EU shipping industry. Andrew P Goodwin

The economic value of the EU shipping industry. Andrew P Goodwin The economic value of the EU shipping industry Andrew P Goodwin 2 nd April 2014 Introduction Shipping is a vital facilitator of world trade 135 % Increase in world GDP in the last two decades 180 % Increase

More information

Predictors for Winning in Men s Professional Tennis

Predictors for Winning in Men s Professional Tennis Predictors for Winning in Men s Professional Tennis Abstract In this project, we use logistic regression, combined with AIC and BIC criteria, to find an optimal model in R for predicting the outcome of

More information

TABLE 1: NET OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE FROM DAC AND OTHER DONORS IN 2012 Preliminary data for 2012

TABLE 1: NET OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE FROM DAC AND OTHER DONORS IN 2012 Preliminary data for 2012 TABLE 1: NET OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE FROM DAC AND OTHER DONORS IN 2012 DAC countries: 2012 2011 2012 ODA ODA/GNI ODA ODA/GNI ODA Percent change USD million % USD million % USD million (1) 2011

More information

44 Economic Perspectives

44 Economic Perspectives 44 Economic Perspectives Source: Kotlikoff (1988), p. 44 In Hundreds 70 Of Dollars 60 50.. 40. 30 ;-*** * s EARNINGS 20 -CONSUMPTION 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Age 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 Year Fig.

More information

League Quality and Attendance:

League Quality and Attendance: League Quality and Attendance: Evidence from a European Perspective* Dr Raymond Bachan* and Prof Barry Reilly ** *University of Brighton, UK **University of Sussex, UK Context Are less fashionable soccer

More information

Traffic safety developments in Poland

Traffic safety developments in Poland Traffic safety developments in Poland Siem Oppe D-2001-8 Traffic safety developments in Poland A research note D-2001-8 Siem Oppe Leidschendam, 2001 SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, The Netherlands

More information

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division

The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full

More information

Dick Vos Senior Manager Research & Strategy

Dick Vos Senior Manager Research & Strategy Dick Vos Senior Manager Research & Strategy! House prices now falling at fastest rate since early 1990s House prices will fall 7% in 'uncertain' market IMF warns on global house prices House prices Through

More information

Game, set and match: The favorite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges.

Game, set and match: The favorite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges. Game, set and match: The favorite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges. Isabel Abinzano, Luis Muga and Rafael Santamaria Public University of Navarre (SPAIN) June 2015 Abstract: We test for the existence

More information

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007

Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Overview of market trends through 2005 Forecasts for 2006 and 2007 Ed Pepke, Ph.D. Forest Products Marketing Specialist Food and Agricultural Organization & UN Economic Commission for Europe Geneva, Switzerland

More information

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian

Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the

More information

Assessing household balance sheet and risks three challenges 1

Assessing household balance sheet and risks three challenges 1 IFC Satellite meeting at the ISI Regional Statistics Conference on Is the household sector in Asia overleveraged: what do the data say? Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 15 November 2014 Assessing household balance

More information

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns

The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1

More information

The state organisation of petroleum operations

The state organisation of petroleum operations The state organisation of petroleum operations Stortinget (parliament) Government Ministry of Finance Ministry of Petroleum and Energy Ministry of Labour and Government Administration Norwegian Petroleum

More information

Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model. Vadim Potapenko Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences

Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model. Vadim Potapenko Institute of Economic Forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model Vadim Potapenko Russian population on 1 st January, million people 150 145 140 148.5 143.7 146.4 135 130 125 120 115 110 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

More information

Parametric Asset Allocation

Parametric Asset Allocation Parametric Asset Allocation Thomas Dangl, Arne Westerkamp, Josef Zechner April 19, 2013 VERY PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE! We study how a simple asset allocation policy in which the investment weights are

More information

Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences

Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences Unconventional Monetary Policy: Thoughts on the U.S. and Japanese Experiences International Conference on Capital Flows and Safe Assets John Rogers Senior Adviser Federal Reserve Board May 27, 2013 The

More information

Lecture 3 The Lisbon Strategy

Lecture 3 The Lisbon Strategy Lecture 3 The Lisbon Strategy Outline The Lisbon European Council held in March 2000 recognized the need of reforming labour,, product, and financial markets in order the performance of the EU economy

More information

The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd

The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd 1 WHY ECONOMICS? THE REASON FOR STUDYING ECONOMICS IS TO AVOID BEING DECEIVED BY ECONOMISTS Joan Robinson,

More information

For an Olive Wreath? Olympic Games and Anticipation Effects in Macroeconomics

For an Olive Wreath? Olympic Games and Anticipation Effects in Macroeconomics The University of Adelaide School of Economics Research Paper No. 2011-18 March 2011 For an Olive Wreath? Olympic Games and Anticipation Effects in Macroeconomics Markus Bruckner and Evi Pappa For an Olive

More information

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project

Economic Outlook. Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Economic Outlook Peter Rupert Professor and Chair Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project League of California Cities Monterey, CA December 3, 2014 Economic Update economic

More information

XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable

XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable XL Meeting of the Network of Central Banks and Finance Ministries: Latin America Roundtable Ernesto Talvi Academic Director, CERES (Uruguay) Nonresident Senior Fellow & Director Economic and Social Policy

More information

A Leading Elliott wave Forecasting Company (Forex, Commodities and Indices )

A Leading Elliott wave Forecasting Company (Forex, Commodities and Indices ) A Leading Elliott wave Forecasting Company (Forex, Commodities and Indices ) THE PRINCIPLES OF ELLIOTT WAVELET THEORY The Elliott Wave Principle was first established by R. N. Elliott in a series of

More information

Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken?

Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken? Farmland Booms and Busts: Will the Cycle be Broken? Kansas Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers Salina, KS February 23 rd, 2012 Brian C. Briggeman Associate Professor and Director of the Arthur

More information

+44 (0) FOOTFALL: GLOBAL SHOPPER TRENDS REPORT Bringing you the latest consumer behaviour trends throughout the globe

+44 (0) FOOTFALL: GLOBAL SHOPPER TRENDS REPORT Bringing you the latest consumer behaviour trends throughout the globe www.footfall.com +44 (0) 121 711 4652 FOOTFALL: GLOBAL SHOPPER TRENDS REPORT Bringing you the latest consumer behaviour trends throughout the globe Q1 2015 intro Welcome to FootFall s brand new Global

More information

Rapid and Reliable Detection of Dissolved Gases in Water

Rapid and Reliable Detection of Dissolved Gases in Water Rapid and Reliable Detection of Dissolved Gases in Water Andrea Caruso and Massimo Santoro Thermo Fisher Scientific, Milan, Italy Application Note 005 Key Words Chromeleon CDS, Environmental, Fracking,

More information

Using Actual Betting Percentages to Analyze Sportsbook Behavior: The Canadian and Arena Football Leagues

Using Actual Betting Percentages to Analyze Sportsbook Behavior: The Canadian and Arena Football Leagues Syracuse University SURFACE College Research Center David B. Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics October 2010 Using Actual Betting s to Analyze Sportsbook Behavior: The Canadian and Arena Football

More information

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006

The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy. Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 The Great Convergence: China, India and the new global economy Mark Thirlwell Program Director, International Economy July 2006 India Two views of the largest economies in 2005 Top 12 economies by GDP,

More information

Korea s Education Reform. Ju Ho Lee, KDI School

Korea s Education Reform. Ju Ho Lee, KDI School Korea s Education Reform Ju Ho Lee, KDI School Table of Contents I. Virtuous Circle II. Number One in Human Capital? III. Education Bubbles IV. Education reform V. Powerhouse of Global Talents Socio-Economic

More information

Consumer behaviour and the welfare eects of gambling in

Consumer behaviour and the welfare eects of gambling in Consumer behaviour and the welfare eects of gambling in Finland Preliminary results University of Turku September 16, 2016 1 Introduction Gambling as utility creating activity Problem gambling Gambling

More information

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1

Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin

More information

Selected Interest & Exchange Rates

Selected Interest & Exchange Rates (516/517) h. Selected Interest & Exchange Rates Weekly Series of Charts November 22, 1982 DIVISION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Prepared by the BOARD OF GOVERNORS FINANCIAL MARKETS FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM SECTION

More information

THE WORLD COMPETITIVENESS SCOREBOARD 2011

THE WORLD COMPETITIVENESS SCOREBOARD 2011 THE WORLD COMPETITIVENESS SCOREBOARD 2011 98.557 94.063 92.588 92.011 90.782 90.219 89.259 87.824 86.475 86.418 86.313 85.707 84.380 84.120 81.629 81.619 81.100 80.278 79.799 78.499 77.599 77.101 76.827

More information

WORLD. Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees

WORLD. Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees 2012 WORLD Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees WORLD Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees The World Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees identifies mobility trends among candidates applying

More information

economic and financial outlook

economic and financial outlook Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in

More information

Regulatory Framework of German football. Birkbeck College, University of London June 10th,2013 Prof. Dr. Christoph Breuer

Regulatory Framework of German football. Birkbeck College, University of London June 10th,2013 Prof. Dr. Christoph Breuer Regulatory Framework of German football Birkbeck College, University of London June 10th,2013 Prof. Dr. Christoph Breuer Agenda Introduction Germany sick man of European football Germany vital man of European

More information

Cheese (American, Italian, Hard, Soft, Fresh and Others) Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast,

Cheese (American, Italian, Hard, Soft, Fresh and Others) Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, Cheese (American, Italian, Hard, Soft, Fresh and Others) Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2013-2019 ResearchMoz include new market research report" Cheese (American,

More information

Key Figures and Trends for the Agricultural Machinery Industry

Key Figures and Trends for the Agricultural Machinery Industry Key Figures and Trends for the Agricultural Machinery Industry Update: November 2015 (monthly) Contact: Philip Nonnenmacher VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Subject

More information

Volume 37, Issue 3. Are Forfeitures of Olympic Medals Predictable? A Test of the Efficiency of the International Anti-Doping System

Volume 37, Issue 3. Are Forfeitures of Olympic Medals Predictable? A Test of the Efficiency of the International Anti-Doping System Volume 37, Issue 3 Are Forfeitures of Olympic Medals Predictable? A Test of the Efficiency of the International Anti-Doping System Eike Emrich Saarland University Freya Gassmann Saarland University Christian

More information

Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority

Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Overview of the Philippines Action Plan for AEC 2015 Emmanuel F. Esguerra Deputy Director-General National Economic and Development Authority Marriot Hotel, Newport City 8 October 2014 Outline AEC 2015

More information

Cote d Ivoire: WPS4415. Pol i c y Re s e a rc h Wo r k i n g Pa p e r Volatility, Shocks and Growth. Zeljko Bogetic Carlos Espina John Noer

Cote d Ivoire: WPS4415. Pol i c y Re s e a rc h Wo r k i n g Pa p e r Volatility, Shocks and Growth. Zeljko Bogetic Carlos Espina John Noer Public Disclosure Authorized Pol i c y Re s e a rc h Wo r k i n g Pa p e r 4415 WPS4415 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Cote d Ivoire: Volatility, Shocks and Growth Zeljko Bogetic

More information

The World Picture A View for Sea Trade

The World Picture A View for Sea Trade The World Picture A View for Sea Trade Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management October 20, 2008 Baltimore, MD Presented by: Scott Sigman Principal, Global Trade & Transportation IHS Global Insight

More information

Multidimensional Analysis

Multidimensional Analysis Multidimensional Analysis of Macro Sustainability of Russia: New Methods for Measuring Progress Dr Stanislav Shmelev, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford University, UK E-mail: s.shmelev@ouce.ox.ac.uk Tel:

More information

2012 International report on mountain tourism

2012 International report on mountain tourism 2012 International report on mountain tourism Will it go global thanks to the web? 7 th World Congress on Snow and Mountain Tourism - Andorra 11.04.2012 LV/01/04/2015 Agenda State of the industry Recent

More information

RIDERSHIP PREDICTION

RIDERSHIP PREDICTION RIDERSHIP PREDICTION Outline 1. Introduction: route ridership prediction needs and issues. 2. Alternative approaches to route ridership prediction. Professional judgement Survey-based methods Cross-sectional

More information

Spurdog (Squalus acanthias) in the Northeast Atlantic

Spurdog (Squalus acanthias) in the Northeast Atlantic ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort Northeast Atlantic Published 11 October 2016 9.3.17 Spurdog (Squalus acanthias) in the Northeast Atlantic ICES stock advice ICES advises that when

More information

FIFA Foe Fun! Mark Kozek! Whittier College. Tim Chartier! Davidson College. Michael Mossinghoff! Davidson College

FIFA Foe Fun! Mark Kozek! Whittier College. Tim Chartier! Davidson College. Michael Mossinghoff! Davidson College FIFA Foe Fun! Tim Chartier! Davidson College Mark Kozek! Whittier College Michael Mossinghoff! Davidson College Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras. Switzerland is the top seed, based on FIFA

More information

Capacity of transport infrastructure networks

Capacity of transport infrastructure networks Most infrastructure extension work is concentrated on roads. The total length of the motorway network has increased dramatically during the past two decades (about 3 % per year). Construction of the high-speed

More information

Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services

Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Financial Overview December 6, 2017 1 Discussion Overview Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing

More information

PUBLIC INQUIRY QUESTION

PUBLIC INQUIRY QUESTION M4 Corridor around Newport PUBLIC INQUIRY QUESTION REFERENCE NO. : PIQ/091 RAISED BY: Tim Gent of St Modwens DATE: 09/05/2017 RESPONDED BY: Bryan Whittaker and Stephen Bussell DATE: 15/05/2017 SUBJECT:

More information

European fishing fleet capacity management

European fishing fleet capacity management European fishing fleet capacity management Seas at Risk Conference Brussels, 21 October 2009 Sophie des Clers Photo Zineb Sedira CFP reform - Vision for 2020 Europe s fishing industry has become far more

More information

In Search of Sure Things An Analysis of Market Efficiency in the NFL Betting Market

In Search of Sure Things An Analysis of Market Efficiency in the NFL Betting Market In Search of Sure Things An Analysis of Market Efficiency in the NFL Betting Market By: Rick Johnson Advisor: Professor Eric Schulz Submitted for Honors in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences Spring,

More information

Value of time, safety and environment in passenger transport Time

Value of time, safety and environment in passenger transport Time TØI report 1053B/2010 Author(s): Farideh Ramjerdi, Stefan Flügel, Hanne Samstad and Marit Killi Oslo 2010, 324 pages Norwegian language Summary: Value of time, safety and environment in passenger transport

More information