Workshop to Generate Guidelines For the Implementation of: 1 - Step 1 of State Safety Program (SSP) and 2 - Phases 1 & 2 of ICAO SMS
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1 Workshop to Generate Guidelines For the Implementation of: 1 - Step 1 of State Safety Program (SSP) and 2 - Phases 1 & 2 of ICAO SMS SMS Peligrando, Arriesgando y Midiendo Dr. S. Hautequest Cardoso, Ph.D. ICAO SMS Senior & OJT Instructor AGA Regional Officer Santiago, Chile, 10 Abril
2 Introduction SMS - Peligrando, Arriesgando, Summary Introduction What you see may not be what you think you see!!! 2
3 Introduction SS7 8% SS8 5% SS9 5% CEO SS6 11% SS5 11% SS4 3% SS3 5% SS(1+2) CEO 52% Introduction Latent conditions Defences Organizational processes + workplace conditions Active failures 3
4 Introduction ICAO Improve Workplace conditions Organizational processes Monitor Identify Latent conditions Active failures Contain Reinforce Defences Introduction Safety objectives and performance standards Safety Policy SMS implementation & SMS in service Safety requirements and targets Performance Indicators 4
5 Peligrando / Arriesgando Probability of occurrence Qualitative definition Meaning Value Frequent Occasional Remote Improbable Likely to occur many times (has occurred frequently) Likely to occur some times (has occurred infrequently) Unlikely, but possible to occur (has occurred rarely) Very unlikely to occur (not known to have occurred) Extremely improbable Almost inconceivable that the event will occur 1 Severity of Occurrences Definition Catastrophic Hazardous Major Minor Negligible Multiple deaths Equipment destroyed Large reduction in safety margins, physical distress/workload (operators cannot perform their tasks accurately/completely). Major equipment damage Serious injury. Significant reduction in safety margins, reduction in the ability y of the operators to cope with adverse operating conditions as a result of increase in workload or conditions impairing their efficiency. Serious incident. Injury to persons. Nuisance. Operating limitations. Use of emergency procedures. Minor incident. Little consequences Meaning Value A B C D E 5
6 Peligrando / Arriesgando Risk probability Catastrophic A Hazardous B Risk severity Major C Minor D Negligible E Frequent 5 5A 5B 5C 5D 5E Occasional 4 4A 4B 4C 4D 4E Remote 3 3A 3B 3C 3D 3E Improbable 2 2A 2B 2C 2D 2E Extremely improbable 1 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E SMS - Arriesgando Risk management Assessment risk index Suggested criteria Intolerable region 5A, 5B, 5C, 4A, 4B, 3A Unacceptable under the existing circumstances Tolerable region 5D, 5E, 4C, 4D, 4E, 3B, 3C, 3D, 2A, 2B, 2C Acceptable based on risk mitigation. It might require management decision Acceptable region 3E, 2D, 2E, 1A, 1B,1C, 1D, 1E Acceptable 6
7 SMS - Peligrando, Arriesgando Fuel spill Risk probability Remote Risk severity Hazardous 1. Fire 2. Contamination 3. Sliding vehicle Risk index Risk tolerability 3B Acceptable based on risk mitigation. It might require management decision SMS - Safety Objectives Set of safety objectives According Safety Policy Established by the senior manager 7
8 SMS - Safety Performance Goals (Targets) Quantified objectives Tied up Monitored by performance indicators Safety objectives Established by the top management level SMS - Performando Safety Performance Change of trend over time Of any business safety level 8
9 SMS - Performance Indicators Parameters that reflect the measurement of the safety performance Of any business at a particular time SMS - Performance Indicator Cardoso Time 9
10 SMS - Aviation accidents are rare events P.I. vs. active failure NO P.I. vs. near-miss events/latent conditions YES SMS - What to consider? IPIs OPI IPIs Latent conditions Near-miss events OPI f(ipis) 10
11 SMS - IPI And OPI Application Thirty IPIs for airports (10 groups) Adjustment 10,000 operations/year Decreasing weights from 10 to 1 SMS - 30 IPIs (10 groups) Group 1 10 IPI # of runway incursions # of aircraft/bird wildlife strikes # of incidents on each runway # of FOD ingestions # of reports on surface distresses on each taxiway # of reports on surface distresses on each apron Weight
12 SMS - Evaluating an OPI OPI year n 2 = 10 W i= 1 i ( IPIvalue) i SMS - IPI Runway incursion IPI Under the target Over the target Target Year 12
13 SMS - OPI (OPI) Year SMS - Real Example # of accidents/incidents at the aprons y = x R 2 = Month 13
14 Think About!!! THE DIFFICULTY IS NOT TO CREATE NEW IDEAS BUT HOW TO GET RID OF OLD IDEAS MAYNARD KEYNES (ECONOMIST) 14
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