5 th World Congress on Snow and Mountain Tourism Andorra March Dr. Daniel Scott and Jackie Dawson

Transcription

1 5 th World Congress on Snow and Mountain Tourism Andorra March 2008 Dr. Daniel Scott and Jackie Dawson

2 The North American Ski Industry Approaches to Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability of the Ski Marketplace Climate change analogues Supply side modeling Demand side modeling Integrated Assessments Conclusions

3 Compared to Europe: 2 nd largest ski industry more snowmaking capacity Western Canada Eastern Canada ownership by 1 company Pacific West Rocky Mountain Midwest Southeast Northeast more conglomerates

4 Region Number of Visitors Snowmaking Capacity (% terrain) Average Season Length Operating Profit (% gfa) Canada East 10,050,000 85% n/a Canada West 7,845,000 70% 135+ n/a U.S. Northeast 13,660, % U.S. Southeast 5,503, % U.S. Midwest 7,532,897 94% U.S. Rocky Mountain 19,606,365 94% U.S. Pacific West 10,578,599 68% NSAA, 2005; 2006; CSC, 2007; Scott et al. 2006

5 = climate change analogue = supply side modeling = demand side modeling

6 An analogue approach uses past climate data which is representative of future change along with past performance data allowing conclusions to be made about possible future impacts. -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Ski Areas Association

7 Average 2000/01 Analogue 1999/00 (2020s) Northeast Pacific West Rocky Mountain Midwest Average Analogue (2050s) Average 2003/04 Analogue 2002/03 (2020s) Average 1995/96 Analogue 1997/98 (2020s) Southeast Average 2000/01 Analogue 2001/02 (2050s)

8 Indicator Climatically Normal Winter ( ) 2020s Analogue ( ) 3 seasons 2050s Analogue ( ) 1 season Season Length (-3.4%) 118 (-10.9%) Visitation 13,789,002 12,299,495 (-10.8%) 12,187,577 (-11.6%) Operating Profit (% gross revenue) Snowmaking - hours operated Snowmaking - % power utilized (+0.5%) (-19.2%) (+75.8%) 1036 (+11.4%) (+36.7%) 52 (+31.3%)

9 Strengths Real-world conditions represented - including full range of supply and demand side adaptations Opportunity to examine wide range of indicators (demand, costs, profitability, community affects) Weaknesses Assessment for a short period of time (1 year and 3 years only) rebound affect? Analogues selected on temperature only and may not reflect future climate change

10 Key differences between University of Waterloo studies and European studies incorporation of snowmaking impact indicator is change in season length (number of days and key holidays) versus snow reliability (for 100 days) Therefore studies are not directly comparable

11 Climate Adaptation Options in the Ski Industry Scott & McBoyle, 2006

12 Lake Louise 1600 metres) 2020s 2050s Best Case 0% 0% Worst Case -1% -12% Southern Ontario 2020s 2050s Best Case -5% -8% Worst Case -17% -44% Southern Quebec 2020s 2050s Best Case -1% -3% Worst Case -11% -28%

13 Sierra Nevada Mountains, California (natural snow only) 2050s 2100 Best Case -21 days -49 days Worst Case -42 days -105 days Aspen, Colorado (with snowmaking) 2030s 2100 Best Case -7 days -28 days Worst Case -14 days -65 days US Northeast (with snowmaking) 2020s 2050s Best Case -13% -16% Worst Case -15% -24%

14 Total ski areas in study = (-62 ski areas) (-71 ski areas) A2 Emission Scenario

15 Winners prepare for congestion, water conflicts, real-estate speculation, development pressures Losers prepare for job losses and potential for decline in tourism spending

16 How skiers respond to changes in supply is a KEY research priority NE Region Market Survey 1,207 participants / response rate = 89%

17 Behavioural Adaptations Past Poor Conditions (% ) Future Poor Conditions (%) Stop skiing for entire season Stop skiing for part of the season Travel to another resort in the region Travel to another resort outside region Done something else with their time Because of poor ski/snowboard conditions in the past have you... If poor ski/snowboard conditions occurred in the next 3 out of 5 winters would you...

18 Winter Tourism System Climate Analogue Modeling Supply 1 2 NSAA data Operator Interviews Modeling Demand Tourist survey GCM modeling 3 Snow - making adaptation modeling Planning Relevant Information for Communities and Industry 5 Modelling Outside Influences 4

19 International Olympic Committee Climate Change Corporate Policy Aspen Skiing Company joins Chicago Climate Exchange (Feb 15, 2005) Sustainable Snowmaking Investing in Climate Change Real-Estate Climate Change Advocacy

20 Contraction of ski operators Consolidation of ski operators into regionally diversified ski conglomerates cost implications /elite sport? Community adaptation must begin now ( winners and losers ) Demand response is uncertain, but key to the future of the industry next generation of skiers? US Ski Operators