Pembina Cardium Oil Forecasting: A Modern Approach. Randy Freeborn, P. Eng.

Transcription

1 Pembina Cardium Oil Forecasting: A Modern Approach Randy Freeborn, P. Eng.

2 Agenda Methodology description: Value Navigator Analog Forecasting and Auto-forecasting Validation of methodology Results Further investigation: Principle operators oil EUR per well by year Tips, Pitfalls and Conclusions

3 Scope: How would Energy Navigator Forecast these wells? 984 wells drilled into the Pembina Cardium on production for forecasting [45-1W5 to 51-13W5]. Four major operators have placed more than 5 wells on production EN divided the dataset into 19 geographical areas, well counts ranged from 4 to 193 Four areas were selected to validate the Analog Forecast methodology. 14 wells were not forecast because they were suspended, injecting water, gas producers or sub-economic.

4 SCOPE: 984 Cardium wells on production provided by client for forecasting. Created 19 geographical areas, well counts from 4 to 193 Four areas selected to validate Analog Forecast methodology.

5 Methodology Approximately 7 wells with sufficient history were forecast using the Five Year Equation, a hyperbolic transitioning to exponential five years from the start of the forecast. The balance of forecasts were created using Energy Navigator s Analog forecast method that imposes a type well shape onto existing production. Analog wells were created for each of the 19 areas.

6 Validation of Methodology Predict 211 wells using type wells created from prior years drilling, compare against 212 production for four areas with well counts ranging from five to 36 P5 type wells were created from wells placed on production during 29 to 21 with production to YE21 Type well forecasts were vertically shifted to align with available from new wells on production in 211 with production to YE211 Actual data from January 212 to February 213 was compared with results from type well approach. Forecasts ranged from -7% to + 9% versus actual oil production

7 Validation Using Historical Data 15, West Pembina-North 85 Wells Forecast Test FORECAST West Pembina 31 WELLS FORECAST [SPARSE EARLY DATA TEST] CALENDAR DAY FORECAST 2,5 1, BOPD 5, Aug-1Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Oct-12May-13 BOPD 1,5 5-6% Jul-9 Nov-1 Apr-12 Aug-13 BOPD 8, 6, 4, 2, Rat Creek 7 WELLS Forecast Test CALENDAR DAY FORECAST +3 cd actuals Aug-1Feb-11Sep-11 Apr-12Oct-12May-13 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 East Pembina Tight Rock 55 Well Forecast Test Jan 212 FORECAST BOCD ACTUAL_BOCD Jul-9 Nov-1-7% Apr-12 Aug-13

8 Validation Details AREA Nominal Location # Early wells available for Type Well development Average TW Production [months] # 211 Wells Forecast EN vs. Jan 212-Feb 213 Actuals [cumulative oil volume] West Pembina-North 5-11 to 51-13W % West Pembina to 51-13W % Rat Creek to 49-12W % East Pembina Tight Rock 47-1 to 5-1W %

9 Finally, Forecast Results PEMBINA CARDIUM FORECAST vs. Time ALL CARDIUM WELLS BOCD WELLCOUNT bocd 5, 12 4, 1 3, 8 6 2, 4 1, 2 Jul-9 Nov-1 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 May-16 Sep-17 Feb-19 Jun-2 bocd 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, PEMBINA CARDIUM FORECAST vs. Cummulative Oil ALL CARDIUM WELLS BOCD FORECAST START WELLCOUNT Cummulative oil, mmbbls

10 Has the Pembina Cardium Oil EUR improved over time? Pembina Cardium Wells; Principal Operators Caution: 213 data not statistically significant VERMILION ENERGY INC. PENN WEST PETROLEUM LTD. PETROBAKKEN ENERGY LTD. SINOPEC DAYLIGHT ENERGY LTD. OVERALL AVERAGE EUR OVERALL COUNT 25 14, , 178 Oil, bbl 1, 8, , 5 4, Q1 17

11 Area Summary of Oil EURs EUR MSTB OIL PER WELL Belly Button Brazeau Brazeau_HIGH_GOR East Bar/North East Bar/South Island Thumb Lodgepole Waterflood NORTH_EAST NORTH_EAST_P1 POD West Pembina West Pembina-North NorthWest Floods Rat Creek Floods East Pembina Tight Rock Tier 3 Deep Warburg Warburg Waterflood Rat Creek WELL COUNT EUR mstb Well Count

12 Tips and Pitfalls The Val Nav auto-forecast feature [below left] should generally be applied rather than type curves when more than a handful of fit points are found: W5M:

13 Tips and Pitfalls continued Review results carefully for reasonableness: When groups of wells are fit with the Tools>Apply/Remove Type Curve, forecasts must be reviewed for reasonableness. In rare cases an N/A forecast is returned which drops a well from the forecast. Wells with less than a few hundred hours of production were assigned a type curve factor of 1 to 1.5. The auto type-fit in Value Navigator would sometimes pick values far too high [for example, an EUR of three million barrels] over short production periods. The evaluator must be careful the type wells created in Value Navigator point to the desired EUR.

14 Conclusions and Extensions Over 9 Pembina Cardium wells were forecast; a quarter of these were validated and resulted in accuracy of -7% to +9% versus observed actuals. Results could be extended with volumetric calculations and geological mapping. Wells appear to be performing on the order of 35% less than published in various news releases, this was not analysed in detail.

15 Resources Omatsone, E., Bagheri, M. A., Galas, C., Curtis, B., & Frankiw, K. (21). Redevelopment of the Cardium Formation Using Fractured Horizontal Wells: Reservoir Engineering Perspectives and Early Case Histories. Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:1.2118/ ms Freeborn, R., Russell, B., & Keinick, W. (212). Creating Analogs, Fact and Fiction. Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:1.2118/16263-ms Haskett, W. (211). Unconventional Type Curves: Useful, or Sirens of Destruction? Society of Petroleum Engineers. doi:1.2118/14759-ms Laustsen, D. (1996). Practical Decline Analysis Part 1-Uses And Misuses. Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology, 35(9). doi:1.2118/96-9-das Justen, J. (1957). Canada s Pembina Field. Journal of Petroleum Technology, 9(9). doi:1.2118/856-g Purvis, R., & Bober, W. (1979). A Reserves Review of the Pembina Cardium Oil Pool. Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology. doi:1.2118/ Wadsworth, J. A., & Walker, R. G. (1991). Morphology and origin of erosion surfaces in the Cardium Formation (Upper Cretaceous, Western Interior Seaway, Alberta) and their implications for rapid sea level fluctuations. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 28, doi:1.1139/e Walker, R. G., & Eyles, C. H. (1991). Topography and significance of a basin-wide sequence-bounding erosion surface in the Cretaceous Cardium Formation, Alberta, Canada. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 61(4), doi:1.136/d426773f-2b26-11d c1865d