Vail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council

Transcription

1 Vail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council Quarterly Market/Research Report: - Orientation/History - Econometrics - Summer Review, Winter Outlook -Transient Inventory Study Synopsys Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Ralf Garrison

2 Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. What s Next? 2

3 Who we are 3

4 MTNWEST Aspen Avon, Colorado Breckenridge Big Sky Beaver Creek Copper Gunnison/Crested Butte Keystone Mt Bachelor Mammoth Lakes Jackson Hole North Lake Tahoe Snowmass Steamboat Park City Area Summit County, CO Telluride Vail Winter Park

5 DEMAND Consumer Agent P.C. Mobile Cloud Call Center Shop/Buy Package/Sell Fulfill/ Process Customer Data Product Data SUPPLY A ATTRACTON Ski, Golf, Events Conference, Rentals T TRANSPORTATION Plane, Car, Boat 6

6 Vail Property Participation 24 properties representing 2,509 units 63% of total community census 7

7 4 Data Submitting Properties Arrabelle at Vail Square Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail International Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences 8

8 Vail s DMX Participation CURRENT VAIL PRODUCTS OTHER PRODUCTS/SVCS Intelligence Pack Economic Report 2 x Annually Reservation Activity Outlook Council/EAC Seasonal Presentations Executive Summary Proposed: 2016 Condo vs. Hotel Group vs FIT Group vs. FIT ( Proposed) New Special Event Calendar Overlay Multi Destination Comparative Vail-Only Research Web Portal Multi Destination Comparative Further Grey Market Inventory Enhanced Daily Occupancy Report (DOR) Mid-month Summer (4 out of 6 months) Mid-month Winter Industry Overlay Event Calendar Overlay 45 Day Retail Report Guest Profiler School Break Report (Vail Resorts Only) Transient Inventory Study Economic Indicators & Summary Taxable Sales Report Presentations 9

9 Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 10

10 Econometrics Consistent Economic Recovery since 2009 Rising Tide for Discretionary Spending All Key Indicators have been positive But Recent Volatility is of concern Specifically: Slowing Growth Globally Geo-Political Uncertainty/Terrorism Strong Dollar is International Headwind Low Oil/Fuel is Good and Bad Future: Uncertain Warrants Attention

11 Index (Base year and calc. method varies by series) Econometrics Average 6 mo Consumer Confidence Index January November 2015 Monthly Values, 6-Month Aggregate Average and 12 Month Moving Average Trend Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)) Produced by DestiMetrics; Source: The Conference Board Month 12

12 Index Econometrics: CCI: Growth slows, Volatility Rises Consumer Confidence Index 2014/ ` Source: Conference Board Month 13

13 Econometrics Sep 2014: $1 CAD = $0.92 USD Sep 2014: 1 EUR = $1.30 USD Sep 2015: $1 CAD = $0.75 USD Sep 2015: 1 EUR = $1.10 USD +23% +18% 14

14 Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 15

15 Industry: Summer Benchmarking Index 70.0% Industry Summer Performance: vs 2007 Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs % 57.3% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 26.8% 21.6% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 16

16 Vail: Summer Benchmarking Index 70.0% Vail Summer Performance: vs 2007 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs % 50.0% 40.0% 44.3% 30.0% 27.6% 20.0% 10.0% 13.3% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 17

17 Summer 2015 May - October Year over Year % Change in INDUSTRY-WIDE Vail Occupancy 7% 3% ADR 4% 5% RevPAR 11% 8% 18

18 Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, % 90% 80% 70% 2015 YTD vs YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May May May May-15 6-Jun Jun Jun Jun-15 4-Jul Jul Jul Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug Aug Aug Aug-15 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Sep Sep Sep Sep-15 3-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-15 19

19 Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, % 90% historic actuals (22 properties included) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May May May May-15 6-Jun Jun Jun Jun-15 4-Jul Jul Jul Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug Aug Aug Aug-15 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Sep Sep Sep Sep-15 3-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-15 20

20 Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 21

21 Industry: Winter Benchmarking Index 40.0% Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/ % 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 7.1% 4.6% -2.5% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 22

22 Vail: Winter Benchmarking Index Vail Winter Performance: 2008/ /15 vs 2007/08 Benchmark 40.0% Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/ % 20.0% 21.5% 20.4% 10.0% 0.0% -0.9% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 23

23 Vail: Occupancy OTB Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail -8% Industry +1% 24

24 Vail: ADR OTB Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail +5% Industry +2% 25

25 Vail: RevPAR OTB Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail -3% Industry +3% 26

26 Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) -50% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov Nov Nov Nov-15 5-Dec Dec Dec Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 6-Feb Feb Feb Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr Apr Apr Apr-16 27

27 Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, % 90% 80% Easter % 60% FBLA % 40% 30% 20% 10% 2015 World Alpine Ski Championships 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) Easter 2016 FBLA Oct-15 7-Nov Nov Nov Nov-15 5-Dec Dec Dec Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 6-Feb Feb Feb Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr Apr Apr Apr-16 28

28 Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 14/15 Data as of Oct. 31, % 90% 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov Nov Nov Nov-15 5-Dec Dec Dec Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan Jan Jan Jan-16 6-Feb Feb Feb Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Mar Mar Mar Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr Apr Apr Apr-16 29

29 Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 30

30 Purpose Track changes in inventory due to Vail s redevelopment Realize Vail s lodging supply & capacity Understand Inventory Mix: Condos vs. Hotels Lodging Quality Attempt to Quantify Rent By Owner Market Note: preliminary report presented in October then refined and now final. 31

31 YOY Change in Professionally 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Managed Units NEW INVENTORY 1. Four Seasons 2. Ritz 3,706 Carlton 3. Solaris 4. Landmark 5. Lion Square 3,954 LOSS of 3,823 INVENTORY 1. Lionshead Inn 2. Roost Lodge Total: ,892 NEW INVENTORY 1. The Lion Total: +79 2,500 2,000 Total: ,500 1, NEW INVENTORY PRE 2009: 1. The Sebastian 2. One Willow Bridge Road 3. Arrabelle at Vail Square

32 Units by Lodging Quality Assurance Rating (restated) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Inspections conducted by Vail Valley Partnership. Based on individual interior unit inspections, not common areas or amenities Unique to Vail Valley and not universal 2,000 1,500 1,781 1,843 1, Platinum Gold Silver Bronze

33 Findings: Professionally Managed.. Evolution in in mix of properties Increase in Condos Decrease in Hotels Lionshead inventory continues to grow 93% are Platinum or Gold Comp Set: Aspen declining/snowmass steady Breckenridge Continues to grow inventory Increase in RBO units in both communities 34

34 Transient Inventory by Property/Unit Type Private Homes Rent By Owner Hotels Condos Time Share 35

35 Rent By Owner: Consolidator/Distributor:Major Players Rent By Owner Airbnb HomeAway.com VRBO 36

36 The Vacation Rental Landscape: Current Status: Complex Rent By Owner Airbnb Private Homes HomeAway.com VRBO Hotels Condos Time Share 37

37 Cautions! Grey Market is. Not black or white RBO market quantification is inconclusive Many RBO are occasional/inconsistent Duplication: Professionally managed units are listed Same unit listed on multiple sites Same unit listed by both homeowner & PMC Timeshare weeks are listed Accuracy of Information Units inaccurately listed as located in Vail Inconsistency of available warm beds BUT: New Opportunities Exist in 2016: Re-visit is being recommended. 38

38 RBO Units Counts 1,200 1,000 1, VRBO/Homeaway.com dominate, but are duplicative 600 Airbnb (whole unit) rentals are smaller but growing Other similar services are increasingly popular VRBO.com HomeAway.com Airbnb.com 39

39 YOY Changes of units listed on VRBO.com All R.B.O channels have grown significantly But rate of growth appears to be slowing

40 Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. What s Next? 41

41 Wild Cards-What Next? 42

42 43

43 #DMXWinterOutlook Thank you! 44