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1 Rogue Waves Forecast and Impact on Marine Structures Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen Det Norske Veritas AS NO-1322 Høvik, Norway Slide 1
2 Rogue Waves Forecast and Impact on Marine Structures Extreme Waves New measuring techniques - laser - marine radar - satellites Climatic changes - increased sea water level - increased frequency of storms, presence of combined seas (wind sea and swell) indications that current design/operational criteria are non-conservative. Slide 2
3 U Project Physical and statistical properties of rogue (freak) waves Impact on current design procedures Risk maps and warning criteria for such extreme events Socio-economic assessment of the end product artnere: KSS (D) LR (D) NMI (N) NV (N) T (P).U.Leuven (B) eteof (F) SW (D) U Berlin (D) KMet (UK) Slide 3 height [s] time [s]
4 Project Structure Slide 4
5 Wave Measurements Laser data and waverider from the North Sea. Hindcast data (DNMI, UK Met-Office). Marine radar (WAMOS II operational wave measuring sensor using standards marine radars as a remote sensing device). Ekofisk, container ship Grey Fox (Africa) Northern Pioneer ship (North Atlantic). Satellite data (Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors) -100x100km SAR images (platforms) -5x10km images (global) taken each 200km along the orbit. Slide 5
6 Wave Measurements 12. December 1990: Maximum Hs = 13 m at Ekofisk, only Waverider was operating. 1. January 1995: Hs=11.9m, Tp= 16.7s, the Draupner wave, crest height=18.5 m (Statoil). 16. February 1996: problems, floating offshore installations West of Shetland, the North Sea October 1998: The Stenfjell case, the bulk carrier Stenfjell 27. December 1998: High waves at Ekofisk January 2000: The FPSO VARG (Norsk Hydro), wave impact at a higher deck level. 9. February 2000: Hurricane FRAN, off the east coast of the U.S.A. 11. July 2000: Severe waves in the Agulhas Current, East coast of South Africa (ref. Hans Moes). FPSO s in the Norwegian/North Sea experienced damages due to green water : 5-6 February 1999: Hs= 8-9 m, Tp= sec. (Varg B, operated by Saga Petrol.) 30. November 1999: Hs= 10.5 m, Tp=10.5 sec. (Varg B) 26. December 1999: Hs= 10.5 m, Tp = sec. (Varg B) 30. January 2000: Hs= 12.5 m, Tp=14.5 sec at the time of the incident. (Petrojarl Varg, operated by Norsk Hydro). Slide 6
7 Wave Models Generation mechanism Wave-current interaction Crossing seas, moving fetch situations Growth of wave groups Bottom topography Linear and non-linear wave models Sea surface Particle velocity sea surf ace elevation (m) Statistical wave models Definition of a freak wave Wave crest criterion - Cmax/Hs>1.2 within a 20-minute sea elevation time series (Cmax=maximum crest) Wave height criterion - Hmax/Hs>2 (Hmax=maximum height) time(s) Slide 7
8 Ship Accidents and Extreme Wave Conditions Ship accidents (Lloyd s Marine Information Service ) Contribution to the UN Programme Global Maritime Distress Safety System through describing the geographical occurrence, statistical nature and predictability of large or steep waves (Warning criteria for freak waves Cross Sea Index, Wave Steepness). Slide 8
9 Impact of Freak Waves Offshore Structures Serious risks: wave crest impact and platform pushover overloads. Local wave loads: green water on deck, wave run-up and deck slamming. ALS against severe extreme waves is included in the Norwegian Offshore Standards ( year return period) Consensus is needed to be reached within the offshore industry on wave models for prediction of freak waves, critical freak wave parameters (e.g. maximum crest, wave steepness, wave asymmetry, wave spectrum,) and design scenarios to be included in ALS. Slide 9
10 Impact of Freak Waves Ship Structures Operational risks: would be primary structural overload, loss of watertight integrity and capsizing Wave loads particularly affected by freak waves: -Green water on deck -Bow slamming -Bottom slamming -Impact on superstructure and bow. Slide 10
11 Results Achieved Understanding of physical & statistical properties of freak waves (limitations of the 2nd order wave models, higher order solutions, statistical description, sea state duration, probability of occurrence). Impact of rogue waves on current design practices (wave steepness, time-domain codes, how to include freak waves in design). Forecast product including warnings for rogue waves (contribution to the UN Global Maritime Distress Safety System through describing the geographical occurrence, statistical nature and predictability of large or steep waves, pre-operational basis by Meteo-France). Many papers in conference proceedings, and journals, presentations at conferences and workshops. (new papers under development). Slide 11
12 Project Impact Relevant sectors of science (design and oceanographic academia). Industry (shipping and offshore). -IACS and oil companies representatives were observers in the SAP. -In DNV knowledge about the results has been shared with BA Maritime and TS (Technology Services). Profiling of the project through media (BBC, Norwegian Res. Council, Austrian TV, National Geographic). Slide 12
13 Future Research Needs Further investigations are needed before freak waves can be introduced in ship and offshore structure design/operational practice. Picture taken by the officer on board of the handymax bulk carrier Selkirk Settler in the N. Atlantic, Feb Insufficient knowledge about: - wave profile in space - ship response to freak waves - consensus about probability of occurrence of freak waves. Slide 13
14 Opportunities and Challenges Ahead Challenges ahead Safer design and operational criteria for marine structures leading to reduction of structural damage and loss. Opportunities Improved design and marine operations Rules. Warning criteria implemented in ship routing systems (e.g. AOP). Reduction of environmental pollution. Slide 14
15 Slide 15
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