Response based sea state estimation for onboard DSS Safe and Efficient Marine Operations

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1 Response based sea state estmaton for onboard DSS Safe and Effcent Marne Operatons Ulrk Dam Nelsen AMOS Workshop, NTNU, Trondhem, 13 th and 14 th November, 2014

2 Contents Introducton: Context Montorng and decson support Decson support and wave estmaton Wave buoy analogy: The concept and modellng approaches Results Results and dscussons Concludng remarks and future work

3 Introducton: Context The presentaton focuses manly on work made n relaton to the wave buoy analogy, where the central pont s to use avalable wave nduced global vessel responses (moton components, acceleratons, hull grder strans, etc.) to make on ste sea state estmaton from an advancng shp (any floatng vessel) n a seaway. Thus, wthn techncal shp operatons at sea and more generally for all martme operatons knowledge of the onste sea state can be used to mprove both safety and effcency. In partcular, ths type of sea state estmaton can provde fundamental nformaton to control and decson support systems (DSS), whch also nclude the area of dynamc postonng, n whch the sea state estmate can be used for feed forward control, mprovng both staton keepng behavour and fuel consumpton. Moreover, vessel performance systems for onboard as well onshore ( n house offce ) fleet analyses gan advantage by havng avalable contnuous estmates of the sea state at the partcular poston.

4 Introducton: Context The presentaton focuses manly on work made n relaton to the wave buoy analogy, where the central pont s to use avalable wave nduced global vessel responses (moton components, acceleratons, hull grder strans, etc.) to make on ste sea state estmaton from an advancng shp n a seaway. Thus, wthn techncal shp operatons at sea and more generally for all martme operatons knowledge of the onste sea state can be used to mprove both safety and effcency. In partcular, ths type of sea state estmaton can provde fundamental nformaton to control and decson support systems (DSS), whch also nclude the area of dynamc postonng, where the sea state estmate can be used for feed forward control, mprovng both staton keepng behavour and fuel consumpton. Moreover, vessel performance systems for onboard as well onshore ( n house offce ) fleet analyses gan advantage by havng avalable contnuous estmates of the sea state at the partcular poston. From L. Adegeest, Skbsteknsk Selskab

5 Introducton: Montorng and decson support Decson support systems for safe and effcent marne operatons:... gudance wth respect to the vessel s speed and/or wave headng n a seaway. Objectve s to reduce rsk(s) assocated to crtcal response levels and/or mprove (fuel) effcency. Concern for safety ncludes, e.g. Sea sckness of passengers Loss of or damage on contaners and cargo Structural damage from slammng or wave mpacts Large roll motons; parametrc roll Fatgue (accumulaton) n the hull grder and other structural detals... 5

6 Introducton: Montorng and decson support Development of decson support systems (DSS) started n the 1970 s; due to a general demand for more exact knowledge about behavour of shps as changes n speed and course were made. Increase n vessel sze and more optmsed shps mply a drft towards the physcal lmts wth respect to capablty and survvablty. In rough weather and at nght decsons are sometmes made by pure guess and/or gut feelng only. From L. Adegeest, Skbsteknsk Selskab 6

7 Introducton: Montorng and decson support The need for gudance... 7

8 Introducton: Montorng and decson support Typcally, decson support systems have two combned and ntegrated functons; Montorng: The current state (weather and wave envronment, motons, acceleratons, hull grder strans, etc.) of the vessel s recorded by sensor measurements. The state s normally vsualsed to the shp s master n graphcal plots. Gudance: Safe and effcent speed and course optons for the next 20 mnutes to 3 hours are dsplayed (graphcally); often n terms of polar dagrams. The gven gudance presents expected behavour and, thus, relablty becomes crtcal. Consequently, decson support systems should be rsk-based. From K. Bendx, Skbsteknsk Selskab 8

9 Introducton: Montorng and decson support Montorng Gudance Nelsen et al. (2006) 9

10 Decson support: Statstcal response predctons Now The future?? The future?? For statonary condtons and a vessel advancng wth constant speed and at a constant wave headng, statstcal predctons of future responses can to some extent be derved on the bass of trend analyss of the past recorded sgnals. However, to nclude the effect of changng operatonal parameters (speed and headng), nformaton about the on ste sea state s requred for any type of response analyss; the responses beng lnear or non lnear. 10

11 Decson support: Means for wave estmaton Well known typcal means to estmate sea states or, equvalently, wave energy spectra: Wave rder buoys, satellte measurements, and wave radars. Classcal wave rder buoys; any wave acton makes the buoy movng. 6-dof (3 translatons and 3 rotatons) problem Measurements of 3 acceleratons and 3 angular rates are processed and, from an nverse problem, the wave acton s solved. Due to ther fxed poston, the nformaton from wave buoys s dffcult to use (n partcular on open ocean where the nformaton s scarce). Satellte measurements offer a paramount tool for the statstcal descrpton and treatment of ocean waves and sea states. However, presently satellte measurements cannot be used n the context of DSS. (Further developments are needed.) 11

12 Decson support: Means for wave estmaton Wave radar systems work on a contnuous bass and at the exact poston of the vessel. Several studes report good and relable estmaton of sea states, but reports on the opposte also exst. Systems are somewhat expensve and requre careful calbraton. For decson support systems the sea state parameters are needed on a contnuous bass (.e. on a mnutes bass) and at the exact poston of the movng vessel. A wave rder buoy s a floatng structure; and so s any type of shp... The wave buoy analogy 12

13 Wave buoy analogy Estmaton of wave spectra based on measured shp responses (measurements by a number of sensors) 13

14 Wave buoy analogy 1) 1) Measurements: from measured shp responses, response spectra are derved. 2) 2) Calculatons: by combnaton of a wave spectrum and lnear transfer functons of the responses, response spectra are calculated. Assumpton: Lnear relatonshp between wave exctatons and shp responses (lnear transfer functons). Representatons by parametrc and non parametrc modellng. Studes by e.g. Isek and Terada (2002), Tannur et al. (2003), Aschehoug (2003), Pascoal et al. (2007) and Nelsen (2006, 2008). Note: Estmatons are, theoretcally, lkely to be less relable durng severe sea states (non lnearty between exctatons and responses...). 14

15 Wave buoy analogy Measured Calculated Unknown 15

16 E()+ Wave buoy analogy: An llustraton Typcal scenaro: Wave spectrum + Transfer functons Response spectra S

17 E()+ Wave buoy analogy: An llustraton The nverse process -.e. the wave buoy analogy: Wave spectrum + Transfer functons Response spectra S

18 Wave buoy analogy: Types of responses Global shp responses, ncludng the complex valued transfer functons (acceleraton(s), roll, wave nduced VBM amdshps,...) A set of three responses s smultaneously consdered. Ths has shown to be the best compromse. At least one response must exhbt port/starboard sde asymmetry n ts correspondng transfer functon (e.g. sway and roll). Frequency nsenstvty the shp needs to respond to the waves; consder responses wth dfferent frequency senstvty. transfer functon Response spectrum hgh freq. exctatons wave energy wave freq. wave freq. 18

19 Wave buoy analogy: Governng equaton(s) Measurement of, say, three shp responses: Cross Spectral Analyss 9 response spectra are obtaned, coupled spectra have complex values Spectral analyss: or b = Af(x), 19

20 Wave buoy analogy: Dscretsaton (1) Equatons are set up for at set of encounter frequences, e = e l, l = 1,2,...,L Relatonshp between encounter and wave frequences s secured by dscretsng the wave feld nto a number (M) of wave frequences and number (K) of drectons. That s, the wave spectrum, E(,β), s determned n K M ponts, and the soluton s sought from L equatons. Soluton obtaned by mnmsng the dfference between the left- and the rght-hand sde of (1): 20

21 21 In general, more unknowns than equatons. Two procedures: 1) Non-parametrc (Bayesan) modellng 2) Parametrc modellng Assumptons: 1) Introducton of the error as whte nose (stochastc vewpont); 2) Non-negatvty constrant; 3) Introducton of pror nformaton (~ Bayesan approach ). Introducton of parametersed wave spectrum: I.e., the soluton s a set of optmsed wave parameters. 4,, , 4, exp 2 )cos ( ) ( ), ( p mean s s p s A H E Wave buoy analogy: Modellng approaches

22 Wave buoy analogy: Bayesan modellng Pror nformaton Addtonal equatons establshed by use of pror nformaton, accordngly a) the wave energy spectrum s expected to be smooth, and b) the energy of ocean waves s expected to vansh for (very) low/hgh frequences. E E Mathematcally, seek to a) mnmse the curvature of E(, β),.e. smoothng for both and β b) mnmse E(, β) for low/hgh How much smoothng s needed?? It s a compromse between agreement of the left- and rght-hand sdes of the governng equaton system and smoothness of the spectrum. The amount of smoothng s controlled by so-called hyperparameters, u and v, so that soluton s obtaned by mnmsng The optmal values of u and v must be determned by some crteron, ABIC. 22

23 23 Wave buoy analogy: Parametrc modellng The wave spectrum s modelled as a 15 (3 x 5) parameter standard spectrum (Hogben and Cobb, 1985): Mxed sea s allowed Non-lnear optmsaton problem establshed by mnmsng the dfference between left- and rght-hand sde from The soluton s a set of optmsed parameters 4,, , 4, exp 2 )cos ( ) ( ), ( p mean s s p s A H E

24 Wave buoy analogy: Results Overvew 1) A study based on only numercal smulatons LNG carrer responses: {heave, ptch, roll} (Nelsen, 2008a, 2010) 2) Analyss of full scale moton measurements contaner shp eght data sets, A, B,..., H. Duraton of 15 mnutes. responses: {heave, ptch, roll} measurements recorded durng operaton. comparson wth wave radar (WAVEX) (Nelsen, 2006, 2008b) 3) Analyss of full scale moton measurements from sea stral research vessel (DRDC Atlantc) comparsons wth buoy data (Nelsen, 2011, 2012) 24

25 Numercal smulatons (generaton of tme hstores data) Wave buoy analogy: Results Tme seres data where the underlyng wave parameters are precsely known. LNG carrer. RAOs calculated by 3D panel code (Wasm) 25

26 Numercal smulatons (generaton of tme hstores data) Wave buoy analogy: Results Un-modal sea states Mxed sea (wnd + swell) Headng 135 deg. Headng 135 deg deg. Headng 45 deg. Headng 90 deg deg. 26

27 Wave buoy analogy: Results Full-scale measurements from a contaner shp D E F A B C eght data sets, A, B,..., H. responses: heave, ptch, roll. measurements recorded durng operaton. comparson wth wave radar (WAVEX) RAOs calculated by Wasm G H 27

28 Wave buoy analogy: Results Full-scale measurements from a contaner shp 28

29 Wave buoy analogy: Results Full-scale measurements from sea trals (DRDC) Responses: roll rate, roll angle, ptch rate, ptch angle, horzontal acc. and vertcal acc. (all recorded at brdge). Shp motons calculated by DRDC (SHIPMO7) usng 2D strp theory (L = 71.6 m, B = 12.8 m, T = 4.8 m, C b = 0.51) Sea state montored contnuously by three wave rder buoys (MEDS C44137 and two drftng Traxys buoys) 16 sets of trals, all wth dentcal relatve run patterns 29

30 Wave buoy analogy: Results Full-scale measurements from sea trals (DRDC) WBA: Results by wave buoy analogy. DRDC: Results obtaned as the weghted average value of three floatng wave rder buoys. 30

31 Wave buoy analogy: Concludng remarks Several means and methods (e.g. wave rde buoys, satellte meas., wave radars) exst to estmate wave parameters. In DSS, wave parameters are needed contnuously and at actual poston of the vessel. (Excluson of some means...) By use of the wave buoy analogy the shp s tself consdered as a wave buoy and, hence, wave estmatons can be based on measured shp responses. Comparsons based on numercal smulatons show good agreement. Comparsons based on full scale data show reasonable agreement wth estmates from wave radar and wave rder buoy measurements. The phenomenon of flterng wll affect the wave estmatons. Whch combnaton of responses s under gven condtons the best? And, can ths combnaton be chosen automatcally? What about uncertantes n RAOs and sea state estmaton? Ongong work as a Ph.D. project (Ms Najmeh Montazer). 31

32 Ongong and future work How to automatcally select the best set of responses under gven operatonal condtons and how to ncorporate uncertantes?! Dependng on operatonal condtons, certan responses may be better than others to nclude n the combnaton of (three) consdered responses. Uncertantes are related to both measurements and transfer functons. Uncertanty modellng should be consdered to ncrease relablty. What about fault detecton and fault tolerant approaches... Shp Fault Detecton Nomnal DSS New DSS model Lajc et al. (2010) 32

33 Future work: A tme doman approach... o Intated n an MSc study (Bjerregård, 2014) o Combnes sgnal and model based approaches (Aronovsk flter, Extended Kalman flter, Recursve least squares flter), where overall methodology reles on deas developed wthn areas of control theory and automaton o Advantageous n non statonary condtons (whch n prncple exst at all tmes...) and updates of sea state are avalable n truly contnuous sense Case study of a sem sub (zero forward speed and regular wave(s) 33

34 Future work: Determnstc response predctons (5 30 sec.) Shp-to-shp nteractons Helcopter landngs Crane operatons... Newly started research topc Predcton wth 10 sec ahead Target Output 95 percent confdence nterval Angle (deg) Tme (sec) Khan et al. (2006) Jensen et al. (2013) 34

35 The end Thank you 35

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