Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 Rainfall Last Week
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1 Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 Rainfall Last Week 1
2 Last Week s Charts 2
3 MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Thu) 3
4 MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Fri) 4
5 Last Week s Model Forecasts OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Thu-24-May H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 5
6 Last Month s GFS Model WIND Forecasts Observed Dir., Speed: Far Left Columns; Forecast: Centre & Right Columns G9. N N N N N N N N N NNW N N N WSW G9. N N N N N N N N N N N N N N G9. N N N N N WNW WNW NNW N N N N NNW N G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW N N WSW WSW WNW SSW N N N SSE G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW N N N WSW WSW N NNW N NW N G9. N N N NW WSW WNW WSW N NW SSW N WNW WNW N G9. N N N N N N NNW N N NW WSW NNE WSW WNW G9. WNW NNW NNW NNW NNW N WSW SSE N WNW SW WSW WNW WSW G9. N N WNW WNW N SW NNW SSE N N WNW N WNW WSW G9. WNW WNW WNW WSW WSW SSW SW SSE N N N WNW WNW WNW G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW SSW SSW N N WNW N SSW SSW N G9. SSW SSW SSW SSW WSW SSW SSW SSW WNW N WNW N SSW SW G9. SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW SW S WSW WSW SSW G9. SSW WSW WSW SSW SSW SSW WSW SSW SSW SW SSE WSW NNW WSW G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WNW WNW WNW WSW SW NNW NNW WSW N G9. SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW WSW WSW WNW WSW NW WNW N WNW G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW NNW SW WSW WSW WSW WNW WNW SSE G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW WSW NW NW WSW WSW SW G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW WNW N WNW NNW G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW WSW WSW SW WSW WSW SW SW WNW N G9. WNW WNW WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW NW WSW WSW WSW WNW SW SSW G9. WSW WSW WSW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW NNW WSW WSW SSW N G9. WNW WNW WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW SW N WSW WSW SSE G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW NW WSW WNW WNW N WNW N N SSW SSE G9. N N NNW NNW NW NW WSW SSW N N WNW N N SW G9. N N N N N NNW N N WNW N WNW N N G9. N N N N N N N N N WNW WNW N G9. N N N WNW WSW WSW N N N WSW N G9. N N N WNW WSW WNW WNW NNE SSW SSW G9. WSW WSW WSW N N WSW SW WNW WSW G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW N SSW WNW SSW G9. NNW S WSW NW N S WSW G9. N WNW N NNW NW SW G9. N N N N WSW G9. NW NW WNW WSW G9. WSW WSW NW G9. SW N G9. SW 65
7 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Click on: 7
8 Climate Indices Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) Tropical Pacific still El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral 8
9 Issued: 17 May Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) BoM Seasonal Outlook Dry winter likely for southwest Australia; Warmer than average winter likely in the south Rainfall Min Temp Max Temp 9
10 Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) Victoria Jun-Aug The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for APR/MAY is Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: There is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in most Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG overnight temperatures will be close to normal in most Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in most Victorian Districts.
11 Monthly Outlook (Statistical Model) Melbourne In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 36% chance of it being wet, a 33% chance of normal rainfall, and a 31% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 39% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 28% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 34% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 33% chance of cool days. 11
12 Jet Streams: Fri-25-May
13 MSL Pressure: Fri-25-May
14 Jet Streams: Sat-26-May
15 MSL Pressure: Sat-26-May
16 Jet Streams: Sun-27-May
17 MSL Pressure: Sun-27-May
18 Jet Streams: Mon-28-May
19 MSL Pressure: Mon-28-May
20 Jet Streams: Tue-29-May
21 MSL Pressure: Tue-29-May
22 Jet Streams: Wed-30-May
23 MSL Pressure: Wed-30-May
24 Jet Streams: Thu-31-May
25 MSL Pressure: Thu-31-May
26 Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-31-May H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 26
27 Chart Discussion: Fri-18-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) Following Three-Day ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-01-Jun-2018 to Sun-03-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
28 PREDICTED WEATHER days one to ten: (ACCESS) & OFFICIAL (Week 1) Click on: 28
29 Following Three-Day GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-01-Jun-2018 to Sun-03-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 29
30 PREDICTED WEATHER weeks 1 & 2: (GFS) Click on: 30
31 Following Three-Day ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-01-Jun-2018 to Sun-03-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 31
32 PREDICTED WEATHER weeks 1 & 2: (ECMWF) Click on: 32
33 Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 Thank You 33
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