The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects

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1 MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects WS (Bill) Cummings PRESENTATION TO Ref: J July 2014

2 LAST YEAR S ADDRESS PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS REGION S ECONOMY LOOKING BETTER THAN HAVE BEEN SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS HIT FIVE YEARS AGO IN From address 23 rd of July

3 IMPACTS ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY I C Ex G INVESTMENT / CONSTRUCTION RISING MODESTLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE RATE RECOVERING OUTSIDE EARNINGS OVERALL UP MODESTLY GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE DOWN 3

4 % GROWTH IN ROOM NIGHTS OCCUPIED HOTELS, MOTELS & SERVICED APARTMENTS (1 st HALF) Cairns City Total TNQ Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Cat No

5 Dec-11 GROWTH IN HOTEL, MOTEL ROOM NIGHTS DEC 2011 to APR 2014 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 % Source: Compass Research, TTNQ Tourism Monitor. 5

6 1982/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /12 NEW SERIES GROSS VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION $M Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Agricultural Financial Statistics Note: Up to 2009/10 Far North Queensland Statistical Division : From 2010/11 includes part Carpentaria Shire 6

7 1982/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /13 VALUE OF MINING PRODUCTION FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Mines & Energy data. FIFO to construction down : to operations & maintenance steady. PNG loss of Interoil office : sales in education & training, construction services and steel fabrication. 7

8 C HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE RATE RECOVERING 8

9 IMPACTS ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY I C Ex G INVESTMENT / CONSTRUCTION RISING MODESTLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE RATE RECOVERING OUTSIDE EARNINGS OVERALL UP MODESTLY GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE DOWN 9

10 VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION $M 1980/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / (1) Note based on 11 months to end May Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. (1) 10

11 1982/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 DWELLING APPROVALS FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION (1) Note - based on 11 months to end May Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. (1) 11

12 TOTAL VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION PRIVATE VS GOVERNMENT / / / / / / / /14 Private Government (1) (1) Note - based on 11 months to end May Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. 12

13 Year 1976/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /13 RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH : CAIRNS (1) Cairns Statistical Subdivision from Cairns North & Cairns South SA3 from Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cat No and previous. 13

14 RESIDENTIAL POPULATION % GROWTH 10 YEARS 2002/03 TO 2012/13 ROCKHAMPTON SA3 20% MACKAY SA3 30% TOWNSVILLE SA3 28% CAIRNS SA3s 32% DARWIN SA4 26% Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Cat No Growth Far North Queensland Region 46,000 (21%) 14

15 LOOKING FORWARD RISING INVESTMENT / CONSTRUCTION STARTING POINT: DWELLING VACANCIES LOW : RENTS UP HOTEL MOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES BACK UP 15

16 SOME PROPOSED DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PIPELINE INCLUDE CAIRNS CITY RESIDENTIAL CAIRNS NORTH 6 residential towers, 1 corporate, 1100 apartments over time 2 x 15 storey towers / residential development 15 storey commercial / residential development TOURISM 400 hotel rooms 300 bed backpacker hostel The Aquarium Project NORTH SIDE Bluewater expansion A retirement village house lots Residential units SOUTHSIDE Towards 2000 house lots 16

17 GROWTH IN CHINESE INCOME LEVELS YEARS GDP US $ TRILLION GDP PER CAPITA (INT $ PPP) , , , , , , , , , , ,185 Source: United Nations. 17

18 GROWTH IN CHINESE OUTBOUND VISITOR NUMBERS No. M ANNUAL GROWTH M M 18.6% M 11.9% M 4.0% (GFC) M 20.4% M 22.4% TOTAL INCREASE 36 m 15.3% AV % PA (1) Note: Includes travel to Hong Kong, Macau & Taiwan. Source: Travel China Guide. 18

19 GROWTH IN CHINESE VISITORS CAIRNS AUSTRALIA , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,071 AV. ANNUAL GROWTH 26% PA 15% PA Source: Tourism Research Australia International Visitor Survey. 19

20 COMPARISON PROJECTED AQUIS PROJECT WITH PERIOD 1984 TO 1996 INCREASE IN HOTEL MOTEL ROOMS FNQ ACTUAL PROJECTED AQUIS NO. OF ROOMS AT BEGINNING AT END 12 YEARS INCREASE % INCREASE +232% +60% INCREASE : 4 YEARS AQUIS STAGE 1 NO GROWTH +147% +32% 20

21 YEARS IN WHICH RATIO OF DWELLING APPROVALS TO POPULATION WAS ABOVE INDICATED DEMAND FOR DWELLING CONSTRUCTION, TO CURRENT POPULATION STIMULATED BY AQUIS POPULATION CITY 70,000 REGION 154, / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /14 CITY 160,000 REGION 280, AQUIS 21

22 POPULATION INCREASES : CAIRNS CITY ACTUAL AQUIS PROJECTED POPULATION AT START 70, ,000 INCREASE 40, ,000 POPULATION AT END 110, ,000 % INCREASE +57% % 22

23 BACK TO MID TO LATE 1980s SOME TRANSITORY STRESSES AND STRAINS BUT BETTER KNOWN IN ADVANCE TO PLAN FOR AND RESPOND TO 23

24 COMMONWEALTH WHITE PAPER PROCESS LIFE EXPECTANCIES URBAN POPULATION GROWTH HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS 24

25 AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL REGIONAL ROADS SEAPORT UPGRADING & CONTAINER SERVICES AIR FREIGHT OPPORTUNITIES HEALTH, UNIVERSITY, COMMUNITY SERVICES AND FACILITIES 25

26 MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects

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