Grant Avenue Streetscape

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1 REPORT TYPE GOES HERE Grant Avenue Streetscape PREPARED FOR City of Manassas 9027 Center Street Manassas, VA PREPARED BY 8300 Boone Boulevard Suite 700 Vienna, Virginia July 31,

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 1 Introduction Project Understanding Background... 3 Data Collection... 5 Existing Conditions Corridor Traffic Demand Intersection Operations Existing Model Performance Conditions...12 Future 2040 No- Conditions Forecasting No- Model Performance Future 2040 Conditions Methodology Model Performance Mitigation Strategy...17 Sensitivity Analysis Results...22 Conclusion...23 Appendices Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D i Table of Contents

3 List of Tables Table No. Description Page Table 1 Grant Avenue Ten Year AADT Trends... 6 Table 2 Modified Intersection Geometry: Change in Intersection Delay ii Table of Contents

4 List of Figures Figure No. Description Page Figure 1 Grant Avenue Project Vicinity... 4 Figure 2 Grant Avenue Average Daily Traffic Historical Trend... 7 Figure Grant Avenue Annual Average Daily Traffic... 8 Figure 4 Grant Avenue Five-Day Histogram (Volume by Hour)... 9 Figure 5 Grant Avenue Balanced Turning Movement Counts Figure 6 Grant Avenue Balanced Turning Movement Counts % Constrained Growth Figure 7 Grant Avenue Through Lane Queue Reduction iii Table of Contents

5 1 Executive Summary The City of Manassas tasked VHB with providing planning and engineering services to evaluate the operational impact of the proposed streetscape road diet improvements on Grant Avenue from Lee Avenue to Wellington Road. In May, VHB performed vehicle counts along the corridor. Analysis of ten-year traffic volume trends and corridor characteristics culminated in a 0.7% annual growth rate along Grant Avenue and major cross-streets. The peak hour of traffic was determined from the vehicle counts, and turning movement counts were conducted during this peak hour at six intersections along Grant Avenue. VHB performed a Synchro operational analysis of the corridor for existing conditions, conditions, future 2040 No- conditions, and future 2040 conditions. geometry mimics the Grant Avenue boulevard design north of Lee Avenue and is consistent with the City of Manassas planning documents describing the proposed streetscape project. Specifically, the modeled geometry consisted of a two-lane road from Lee Avenue to north of Wellington Road. A dedicated left-turn lane was provided on the southbound approach at Prince William Street and traffic signals were optimized to reflect the traffic conditions. Following initial analysis, VHB modeled dedicated left-turn lanes in both directions at the signalized intersections to accommodate the increased queues resulting from the consolidation of through and left-turn movements into a single lane. With the addition of the left-turn lanes, Grant Avenue operates at low (LOS A) to medium (LOS C) delay in all scenarios. No intersection experiences a level of service worse than LOS D, which occurs only at Wellington Road in both the 2040 No- and scenarios because of background traffic growth only, since the proposed road diet plan does not impact the intersection. A sensitivity analysis of this intersection reveals that it will approach LOS D conditions in approximately eight to ten years due to the projected traffic growth; however, the road diet plan has no bearing on the future operation of the Wellington Road intersection if the four-lane cross-section is maintained on the southbound approach to the intersection. Although the stop-controlled approaches along the corridor experience increased delay in the condition, the delay is limited to the small traffic volumes on those side streets, and that delay never exceeds more than 45 sec/veh. High-level signal warrants were conducted at each of the three stop-controlled intersections in the corridor. None of the three intersections meet the peak hour volume requirements for a signal. 1 Introduction

6 Queues substantially increase along Grant Avenue at Prince William and Byrd / Bartow intersections in the condition, under both and 2040 traffic demands. Southbound queueing at Prince William Street is of concern, as the queues are projected to extend beyond the adjacent intersection at Center Street if only a single through lane is provided in the southbound direction. Based on the projected queues in the condition, and other safety and geometric considerations, VHB recommends that the design incorporate dedicated left-turn lanes on Grant Avenue in both directions at the two signal-controlled intersections. VHB ran a modified model that demonstrated the impact on approach delay and queues with the dedicated left-turn lanes included. Because the southbound queue from Prince William Street is expected to extend beyond the adjacent intersection at Center Street in a single through-lane configuration, VHB recommends that the road diet design maintains a second southbound through lane at Prince William Street, unless additional analysis of the network including the Old Town intersections suggests otherwise. Final geometric design of the corridor, particularly Grant Avenue / Prince William Street should consider the proximity of the Church Street and Center Street intersections in Old Town and the impact on coordinated timing plans and progression through this segment. Consideration should also be given to short, turn lanes for the northbound approaches to the residential side street intersections at Taney Road (south), Buckner Road, Taney Road (north) and Douglas Street. Left-turn lanes should also be considered for any proposed median breaks allowing access to the Discount Plaza and future Manassas City Safety Facility. 2 Introduction

7 2 Introduction 2.1 Project Understanding The City of Manassas tasked VHB with providing planning and engineering services to evaluate the operational impact of the proposed streetscape road diet improvements on Grant Avenue from Lee Avenue to Wellington Road. The City plans to reconstruct Grant Avenue between Lee Avenue and Wellington Road as a two-lane, median-separated boulevard that is intended to more adequately support the evolving character of the neighborhood by providing enhanced mobility for all users. The vision for the corridor is to extend the boulevard treatments that have been in place along the northern end of Grant Avenue a twolane road with a landscaped median between Lee Avenue and Sudley Road. To address the character and land use of the southern section, other features will be incorporated such as wider sidewalks, bike lanes, and/or a shared-use path to accommodate pedestrians and cyclists of all levels; transit stops; Safe Routes to School treatments; and well-defined pedestrian crossings. For this analysis, the project area is defined as Grant Avenue, bounded by Lee Avenue to the north and Wellington Road to the south. Figure 1 shows a project vicinity map. The intersections of Church Street and Center Street in Old Town were excluded from the analysis. 2.2 Background Grant Avenue is currently a four-lane undivided highway south of Lee Avenue and is maintained by the City of Manassas. The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) classifies Grant Avenue as a minor arterial. The land use surrounding Grant Avenue is primarily residential with a few retail locations. Grant Avenue features both signal-controlled and stop-controlled intersections, residential driveways, and commercial access. The posted speed limit is 25MPH north of the southern Taney Road intersection and 35MPH south of the southern Taney Road intersection near the southern end of the study corridor. 3 Introduction

8 Figure 1 Grant Avenue Project Vicinity 4 Data Collection

9 3 Data Collection Prior to initiation of the project, the City and VHB concurred that updated traffic count data would be collected for the corridor. VHB contracted MCV & Associates (MCV) to perform traffic counts along Grant Avenue. As part of this effort, MCV collected 24-hour machine counts, by lane, at the approaches to 5 intersections in the study corridor and one intersection (Hastings Drive) south of the study corridor. These counts were conducted on Tuesday through Saturday for a typical (i.e., no public holidays, no major weather incidents, and while K-12 schools were in session) week. The traffic counts provided an hourly distribution of traffic volume throughout the day to determine the Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on Grant Avenue for the data collection period. This ADT was held as typical for the corridor; no season factor was applied. The counts were used to determine the typical peak morning hour and peak evening hour of traffic for the day. The machine counts were performed at the following locations: A. Grant Avenue & Sudley Road B. Grant Avenue & Church Street C. Grant Avenue & Center Street D. Grant Avenue & Prince William Street E. Grant Avenue & Wellington Road F. Grant Avenue & Hastings Drive In addition to the ADT counts, MCV collected turning movement counts at six intersections along Grant Avenue during the two-hour AM peak period and the twohour PM peak period according to the machine count data. These turning movement counts were collected for use in calculating the intersection delay (and corresponding level of service) of the intersections along Grant Avenue. Turning movement counts were collected at the following six intersections: A. Grant Avenue & Lee Avenue B. Grant Avenue & Douglas Street C. Grant Avenue & Byrd Drive / Bartow Street D. Grant Avenue & Taney Road (South) E. Grant Avenue & Prince William Street F. Grant Avenue & Wellington Road 5 Data Collection

10 4 Existing Conditions 4.1 Corridor Traffic Demand Ten-year historical trends in Grant Avenue annual average daily traffic (AADT) are shown in Table 1 and Figure 2. The illustrated trend reveals a consistent demand on the corridor, with moderate reduction in volume in the northern segment between Sudley Road to and Church Street (primarily north of the study corridor) and nominal growth of 0.7% in the segment from Church Street to Wellington Road. The ADT derived from the counts conducted in confirm this growth trend in the study corridor. Average Annual Daily Traffic volumes for 2016 from VDOT s public database are shown in Figure 3. VHB collected machine counts at six different locations along Grant Avenue to determine the peak hour along the corridor. To determine the morning and evening peak hours for Grant Avenue, the machine data was plotted in a histogram of volume by hour, shown in Figure 4. Although there was slight variation in the peak hour at the two extreme ends of the corridor, a uniform peak hour for the corridor was determined: AM Peak Hour: 7:45 8:45 PM Peak Hour: 5:00 6:00 Table 1 Grant Avenue Ten Year AADT Trends VDOT AADT Annual Growth Rate Corridor Segment Beauregard to Sudley Church to Beauregard Prince William to Church Wellington to Prince William ,000 11,000 19,000 14, ,800 9,500 20,000 15, ,000 10,000 22,000 17, ,500 9,200 20,000 15, ,100 9,200 20,000 16, ,300 9,300 20,000 16, ,100 9,200 20,000 16, ,600 9,700 21,000 15, ,500 9,600 21,000 15, ,300 9,400 21,000 15, ,100 9,000 20,000 15, % -2.0% 0.5% 0.7% 6 Existing Conditions

11 AADT (vehicles) Grant Avenue Streetscape Traffic Analysis Figure 2 Grant Avenue Average Daily Traffic Historical Trend Grant Avenue AADTs 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7, Year Beauregard to Sudley Prince William to Church Church to Beauregard Wellington to Prince William 4.2 Intersection Operations The turn movement counts at the five southern intersections were balanced such that the sum of traffic leaving an intersection equals the sum of traffic arriving at the next intersection. Base turning volumes are close but not identical due to intermediate access points along Grant Avenue. Balancing these volumes creates a closed system for modeling purposes. The minor adjustments requisite for balancing have a negligible operational impact. Counts at the northern-most intersection, Lee Avenue, are not balanced due to the major intersections of Church Street and Center Street situated between Lee Avenue and Prince William Street. Data collection at Church Street and Center Street was not included in the scope for this study. The existing balanced turning movement counts are presented in Figure 5. 7 Existing Conditions

12 Figure Grant Avenue Annual Average Daily Traffic 8 Existing Conditions

13 12:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM 4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM Number of Vehicles on Grant Avenue Corridor Grant Avenue Streetscape Traffic Analysis Figure 4 Grant Avenue Five-Day Histogram (Volume by Hour) Grant Avenue Five Day Traffic Flow Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 9 Existing Conditions

14 Figure 5 Grant Avenue Balanced Turning Movement Counts 10 Existing Conditions

15 4.3 Existing Model Performance VHB developed a Synchro (version 9) model to evaluate the existing traffic conditions on the corridor. Synchro is a deterministic software used to analyze the operational performance of signalized and unsignalized intersections. The methodology used is based on the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). The three signalized intersections in the Synchro model were coded using optimized signal timings. Actual signal controller timing was not provided for this study. VHB calibrated the Synchro model to confirm the model replicated existing conditions according to observations and traffic counts. For calibration, VHB analyzed the throughput volume output from Synchro s microsimulation tool SimTraffic and compared it to existing conditions volumes. The model is typically considered calibrated and valid when the modeled throughput volumes are within 10% of observed volumes The modeled and observed calibration estimates are included in Appendix A. Except for the Grant Avenue and Lee Avenue intersection, the modeled intersection throughput volumes are within 5% of observed intersection throughput. Except for the northbound through movement at Lee Avenue, modeled individual movements are either within 10% of observed volumes, or within 20 vehicles of the observed count at smaller volume intersections. The northbound Lee Avenue exception is the result of the unbalanced link between Prince William Street and Lee Avenue due to the lack of traffic data at the intersections at Church Street and Center Street. Based on observations and historical familiarity with traffic patterns in the Old Town segment, VHB determined the Existing Conditions Model to be valid. VHB then used the validated Existing Conditions Model to identify key measures of effectiveness (MOEs) for the study corridor intersections, such as vehicle delay per movement, approach, and intersection, and the corresponding level of service (LOS). These MOEs are listed in Appendix B for each of the six analysis intersections along Grant Avenue. The 95 th percentile queues for the three signalized intersections are listed in Appendix C. Virginia Department of Transportation defines functioning intersections as those operating at LOS D or better, particularly in urban locations such as this corridor. Every intersection functions at LOS A or LOS B except for Grant Avenue and Wellington Road, which operates at LOS C. Appendix B also shows that every movement and approach is operating at LOS D or better. Only five movements operate at LOS D, which are primarily the side streets under stop control. Every movement originating from Grant Avenue between Lee Avenue and Taney Road operates at LOS B or better, implying the corridor is functioning well at present. Appendix C shows that mainline queues on Grant Avenue are not currently a concern at either of the two signal-controlled intersection on the corridor Prince William Street or Byrd Drive / Bartow Street. 11 Future 2040 No- Conditions

16 5 Conditions The City of Manassas has proposed a reduced lane scenario for the Grant Avenue corridor. The geometric features in the model are similar to the existing conditions of Grant Avenue north of Lee Avenue and consistent with the 2008 Old Town Manassas Sector Plan and other City planning documents regarding the streetscape project. The modeled corridor is as follows: One travel lane in each direction from Lee Avenue to the transition back to the four-lane cross-section north of Wellington Road. Note that the intersections of Grant Avenue with Church Street and with Center Street were not evaluated as part of this study, per the scope. The transition between the proposed two-lane configuration and the existing four-lane configuration at the southern end of the corridor occurs approximately 400 north of the Wellington Road intersection. A 75-foot dedicated left-turn lane on southbound Grant Avenue at Prince William Street. This additional lane was deemed necessary prior to Synchro analysis based on the volume of southbound left-turning vehicles and the proximity to the Grant Avenue / Center Street intersection, to avoid queues extending back through the Old Town intersection. Existing lane configurations on cross-street approaches. Optimized signal timings at Wellington Road, Byrd Drive / Bartow Street, and Prince William Street intersections. Existing signal times were estimated. Signal timings were not provided by the City. VHB analyzed the scenario as described above using the Synchro model. The operational measures of effectiveness are summarized in Appendix B and C. There is no significant degradation of intersection delay along Grant Avenue under the reduced-lane scenario based on current traffic demand. Every intersection maintains LOS C or better. The eastbound and westbound approaches at Prince William Street degrade to LOS E, but the intersection remains LOS C. Queueing along Grant Avenue at the signal-controlled intersections increases significantly in the condition at Prince William Street and Byrd Drive / Bartow Street. Northbound queues at Prince William nearly quadruple. Northbound and southbound queues at Byrd/Bartow double in AM and quadruple in PM (southbound). The increased queuing is expected due to the consolidation to one lane; but, the queuing is further exacerbated due to the shared use of a single lane for both the through movements and left-turn movements. Queues on southbound Grant Avenue at Wellington Road are contained within the four-lane segment. 12 Future 2040 No- Conditions

17 6 Future 2040 No- Conditions 6.1 Forecasting To determine traffic volumes anticipated for year 2040, the City originally provided direction in the request for proposals (RFP) to apply an annual growth rate of 2% to the existing volumes, but allowed for engineering judgment by the consultant team regarding the determination of the appropriate growth rate. Review of the past ten years of AADT for the corridor, the land use constraints and limited plans for development, and the role of Grant Avenue in the broader transportation network suggest that a 2% growth rate is a an overestimation of traffic growth in the corridor. Table 1 in the existing conditions section shows the AADT annual growth rate in the corridor over the past ten years. The average annual growth rate has been 0.7% or lower in the study corridor. The northern section of the corridor Church to Sudley has experienced negative average annual growth. The Grant study corridor is constrained by the residential neighborhoods and the capacity-limiting road diet that the city seeks to mirror in the study corridor. There is limited potential for growth on the four cross-streets (Lee, Douglas, Byrd/Bartow, and Taney) all of which are fully developed with single family residential or City government buildings. During the kick-off meeting for this study, the City stated that the only development on the southern end of the corridor would be some minor redevelopment maintaining existing density levels. The only potential for new development lies in the Old Town Manassas area in the form of vertical infill development. Therefore, it can be concluded that only the background growth would be loaded onto the corridor. Potential for background growth greater than the 0.7% recommended is not likely. Grant Avenue is not the primary route through the City of Manassas for through traffic. Wellington Road, Liberia Avenue, and the 234 By-Pass all offer more capacity and faster travel times for the majority of origin-destination pairs. There is no evidence that this will change in the future, and the City s proposal to apply the road diet to Grant Avenue will encourage that trend of zero to little growth of cut-through traffic on the corridor. Applying a road diet to Grant Avenue is intended to and will more than likely reduce traffic demand on Grant Avenue. Studies have shown that traffic demand is correlated to available capacity. Through trips (those without an origin or destination within the study corridor) on Grant Avenue would likely divert to alternative routes through the City s roadway network in response to the reduction in capacity on Grant Avenue. A more expansive travel demand modeling study would confirm this assumption and quantify the magnitude of any rerouting of through trips. 13 Future 2040 No- Conditions

18 An additional consideration is the advent of connected and autonomous vehicles. By 2040, autonomous vehicles are expected to account for a sizable share of the overall vehicle fleet. Methodology to quantify the future impacts of connected/autonomous vehicles on roadway/intersection capacity and operations is in its infancy, and it is not necessarily appropriate to estimate the penetration rate in 2040; however, it is fair to anticipate that this technology will have an impact in future demand and traffic operations. Autonomous vehicles operate at lower headways and will process vehicles through junctions much more efficiently. When autonomous vehicles enter the vehicle fleet, roadway capacity will be capable of handling more volume prior to saturation. Given these considerations, VHB applied a 0.7% uniform growth rate to the balanced volumes on Grant Avenue, Prince William Street, and Wellington Road to derive the 2040 turn movement counts, which are presented in Figure No- Model Performance VHB performed an operational analysis for 2040 No- to provide a baseline comparison for the 2040 scenario, and to show how the existing four-lane crosssection is anticipated to handle the future demand if the project were not constructed. VHB updated the Synchro model with the calculated 2040 turning movement volumes to perform the analysis. Appendix B and C contain the measures of effectiveness for the 2040 No-. There are minor increases in delay throughout the corridor due to the background growth applied, but the only intersection that degrades in LOS between and 2040 due to background growth alone is Grant/Wellington in the PM peak (LOS C to LOS D). The minor street approaches at the stop-controlled intersections incur some increased delay due to the higher volumes on Grant Avenue; however, none degrade beyond LOS E. Queues increase slightly between and 2040 due to the additional traffic volume in the network; however, the increase in queues is minimal and not rising to the level of concern. 14 Future 2040 No- Conditions

19 Figure 6 Grant Avenue Balanced Turning Movement Counts % Constrained Growth 15 Future 2040 No- Conditions

20 7 Future 2040 Conditions 7.1 Methodology To analyze the impact of the proposed conditions for Grant Avenue in 2040, VHB updated the scenario Synchro model with forecasted 2040 volumes. VHB used the Synchro model to derive measures of effectiveness for comparison to the 2040 No- model to quantify the impact that the road diet scenario is expected to have on future traffic demands Model Performance The measures of effectiveness for the 2040 Scenario are listed in Appendix B and C. The only intersections that operate at LOS D in the 2040 scenario are Wellington Road and Prince William Street, both in the PM peak only. Several stopcontrolled approaches operate at LOS D and E, reflecting the reduced gaps in the Grant Avenue traffic for permissive movements; however, no intersection along Grant Avenue is anticipated to experience conditions worse than LOS D. Although the delay analysis suggests that the scenario does not present concerns, the queue analysis shows that conditions at Prince William and Byrd/Bartow degrade significantly compared to the 2040 No- model. Queues are 1.5 to 4 times longer in the condition compared to the No-, which is to be expected due to the consolidation of the through and left-turn traffic into a single shared lane. Although the delay values do not suggest vastly deteriorated operating conditions, a review of the queues associated with the lane consolidation may suggest that the demand may be more efficiently managed by the addition of dedicated left-turn lanes. The impact the addition of these turn lanes will have on the queues are described in the following chapter. 16 Sensitivity Analysis

21 8 Mitigation Strategy Dedicated Turn Lanes In the lane reduction scenario, Synchro reports acceptable delay throughout the corridor. There are so few left-turning vehicles in the peak hour (approximately one left-turning vehicle per signal cycle at Prince William Street and Byrd Drive / Bartow Street) that they do not contribute significantly to the overall intersection delay performance. But vehicles do not necessarily arrive at intersections uniformly. Multiple left-turning vehicles arriving in the same cycle could cause increased intersection delay and longer queues than modeled according to a random arrival pattern. Microsimulation software would more accurately account for the more likely arrival patterns of through and turning vehicles to the intersections. The distribution of leftturning vehicles throughout the day may also vary. It is possible that peak left-turns do not occur during the peak hour analyzed in Synchro. Disproportionately higher left turns during a non-peak period could cause off-peak delays resulting from queuing conditions caused by vehicles in the shared Grant Avenue lane waiting to turn left. Safety is also a priority of the proposed streetscape project. The potential for rear end and sideswipe crashes increases when left-turning traffic shares a lane with through traffic. The lack of dedicated turn lanes reduces pedestrian expectations of possible conflicts with turning vehicles. For these reasons, VHB recommends adding dedicated turn lanes along Grant Avenue as described in the next section. VHB reran the Synchro model to reflect these proposed lane scenarios. The impacts the turn lanes have on delay and queuing in the condition is demonstrated in Table 2 and Figure 7, respectively. Proposed Intersection Geometry The following proposed geometric conditions are based on a review of delay and queueing conditions along Grant Avenue. Grant / Lee o o Maintain southbound boulevard conditions. Maintain northbound left-turn lane. Grant / Prince William o o One through lane in both northbound and southbound approaches. Convert inside through lanes to dedicated left-turn lanes in both northbound and southbound approaches. Extend the southbound left-turn lane in the initial model to 150 feet. 17 Mitigation Strategy

22 Grant / Byrd / Bartow o o o One through lane in both northbound and southbound approaches. One dedicated left-turn lane in both north and south approaches. Retain the existing southbound right-turn lane. Grant / Wellington o End Grant boulevard conditions approximately where the southbound turn lanes begin north of the Wellington Rd intersection. At the stop-controlled intersections along Grant at Taney (south), Buckner, Taney (north), and Douglas, consideration should be given to providing, short, dedicated left-turn lanes for northbound turning traffic. Consideration should be given to longer, dedicated turn lanes for the redeveloped shopping center and public safety facility, in accordance with the access management plan. Table 2 Modified Intersection Geometry: Change in Intersection Delay Scenario Grant Avenue and Prince William Street Intersection Delay (LOS) Approach Delay (LOS) Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound Original Model AM 26.0 (C) 66.0 (E) 76.4 (E) 9.5 (A) 8.2 (A) PM 22.3 (C) 29.7 (C) 35.7 (D) 19.1 (B) 17.9 (B) 2040 AM 29.5 (C) 31.4 (C) 48.4 (D) 35.2 (D) 9.8 (A) 2040 PM 36.2 (D) 38.2 (D) 64.7 (E) 38.0 (D) 24.1 (C) Modified Model New AM 21.2 (C) 31.9 (C) 33.0 (C) 22.7 (C) 7.9 (A) New PM 21.3 (C) 29.0 (C) 33.7 (C) 18.4 (B) 17.0 (B) 2040 New AM 28.2 (C) 35.2 (D) 37.8 (D) 32.8 (C) 12.8 (B) 2040 New PM 28.8 (C) 35.2 (D) 37.7 (D) 22.0 (C) 28.6 (C) Grant Avenue and Byrd Drive / Bartow Street Original Model AM 8.5 (A) 24.7 (C) 24.3 (C) 8.9 (A) 6.1 (A) PM 16.4 (B) 16.9 (B) 14.8 (B) 10.6 (B) 19.9 (B) 2040 AM 13.5 (B) 16.4 (B) 14.9 (B) 15.5 (B) 8.8 (A) 2040 PM 15.5 (B) 25.3 (C) 21.9 (C) 9.2 (A) 18.3 (B) Modified Model New AM 12.7 (B) 13.6 (B) 12.5 (B) 14.6 (B) 8.6 (A) New PM 13.1 (B) 17.0 (B) 14.7 (B) 10.0 (B) 14.5 (B) 2040 New AM 13.5 (B) 16.1 (B) 14.8 (B) 15.8 (B) 8.2 (A) 2040 New PM 17.7 (B) 17.0 (B) 14.7 (B) 11.5 (B) 21.6 (C) 18 Mitigation Strategy

23 Figure 7 Grant Avenue Through Lane Queue Reduction 19 Mitigation Strategy

24 The addition of turn lanes improves the delay at both signalized intersections. Prince William Street reduces from LOS D to LOS C, and all its approaches operating at LOS E improved to LOS D or better. While delay reduced and LOS improved in most scenarios, a few approaches show slightly increased delay under the new geometry. In these situations, the optimized signal timings allocated additional green to the side streets, improving their delay at the negligible expense to Grant Avenue through traffic. These signal timings can be tweaked to restore priority progression to the through volume on Grant Avenue. Figure 7 shows the reduced queue lengths resulting from the addition of dedicated left-turn lanes at the signalized intersections. Queue length either decreased or remained the same (notably southbound at Prince William where a dedicated left-turn lane was already modeled in the original build geometry). The southbound queue at Prince William Street extends back through Center Street intersection in the one-lane approach scenario. For this reason, consideration should be given to maintaining the existing southbound lane use (shared though-right and shared through-left), tapering down to a single southbound lane beyond the intersection at a distance great enough to allow for the merging condition. The Synchro model does not include the signal control at Center Street and the metering effect the signal control will have on the arrival pattern on the southbound approach to Prince William Street. Further investigation of the significant southbound queue length in the PM peak at Prince William should be considered before final design. This analysis is not possible within the confines of this study due to the absence of traffic data and modeled intersections at Church Street and Center Street. Preliminary Signal Warrant Analysis VHB performed a preliminary analysis of the warrant for signalization at the three stop-controlled intersections. Specifically, the following intersections were analyzed for the 2040 scenario: 1. Grant Avenue and Lee Avenue 2. Grant Avenue and Douglas Street 3. Grant Avenue and Taney Road (south) Federal Highway Administration s (FHWA) Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) contains nine warrants for the installation of a traffic signal. The warrants are based on traffic volumes, pedestrian volumes, crash history, and other present risk factors. A full warrant analysis requires at least eight hours of turning movement count data. For this analysis, only four hours of turning movement count data were collected. Moreover, the network was analyzed only during the AM and PM peak hours. So, VHB used only Warrant 3 (Peak Hour) for this preliminary analysis. It is assumed that if the peak hour of the day is not close to meeting warrants, then it will not meet the remaining four-hour and eight-hour warrants. The criteria for meeting the Peak Hour warrant (Warrant 3) is defined in the MUTCD, Figure 4C-3. None of the three intersections analyzed meet conditions of this Warrant 20 Mitigation Strategy

25 3 under the 2040 conditions. Since the intersections did not meet this warrant, VHB does not anticipate it will meet the other warrants for traffic signal installation. Therefore, installation of a traffic signal is not recommended at any of these locations. Refer to Appendix D for the analysis of the Peak Hour warrant (Warrant 3) at the three stop-controlled intersections. 21 Mitigation Strategy

26 9 Sensitivity Analysis Results For each intersection that performed at LOS D or worse in the 2040 analyses, VHB performed a sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis was used to determine what year the intersection is likely to reach LOS D conditions (i.e., how many years the intersection will continue to operate at or better than LOS D based on a 0.7% growth rate. The Prince William Street intersection performs at LOS D during the 2040 evening peak, but at LOS C with the dedicated left-turn lane in the the 2040 Modified PM peak; so, this intersection was excluded from the sensitivity analysis. The Wellington Road intersection performs at LOS D during both the 2040 No- and evening peak. Per the study scope, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the critical lane volume technique a method that utilizes conflicting volume movements to estimate level of service based upon the determination of the critical volume within lane groups. First, the total critical lane volume for each intersection in 2040 was calculated. Then, the 0.7% constant growth rate was utilized to determine what year the total critical lane volume reached the lowest threshold corresponding to LOS D. The Wellington Road intersection is expected to reach LOS D conditions in approximately eight to twelve years. This is true for both the No- and scenarios because the lane configuration is consistent (i.e., the southbound configuration transitions 400 feet to the north of the intersection). 22 Sensitivity Analysis

27 10 Conclusion The results of this study suggest that the streetscaping plan the reduction to one lane in each direction of Grant Avenue south of the railroad to Wellington Road will not result in significant degradation to operating conditions in the corridor. All study intersections will continue to operate at LOS C or better. Wellington Road is expected to slide into LOS D within the next fifteen years, but that is due to the background growth alone since the operation of the intersection is not directly impacted by the proposed streetscaping plan according to the way it was modeled in this study. The most significant effect of the proposed geometry is the increase in queue length at the signalized intersections at Prince William Street and Byrd Drive / Bartow Street. Maintaining dedicated left-turn lanes at these intersections will help manage the queues; however, the southbound queue from Prince William Street is expected to extend beyond the adjacent intersection at Center Street in a single through-lane configuration. Consideration should be given to maintaining a second southbound through lane at Prince William Street, unless additional analysis of the network including the Old Town intersections suggests otherwise. Final geometric design of the corridor, particularly Grant Avenue / Prince William Street should consider the proximity of the Church Street and Center Street intersections in Old Town and the impact on coordinate timing plans and progression through this segment. Synchro analysis reports that the lengthy queues are not degrading traffic conditions in terms of intersection and approach delay. The queues are processed each cycle without phase failure (i.e., vehicles waiting more than one signal cycle to proceed through an intersection). Longer cycle lengths were modeled to allow these queues to be processed; however, the longer cycle length may conflict with the coordinated cycles through Old Town. Prior to final corridor design, access management for the commercial center should be considered. The proposed median treatment could affect traffic distribution and routing within the corridor. 23 Conclusion

28 Grant Avenue & Prince William Street Grant Avenue & Lee Street Grant Avenue Streetscape Traffic Analysis 11 Appendices 11.1 Appendix A AM PM Observed Volumes Modeled Volumes Percent Difference between Modeled and Observed Observed Volumes Modeled Volumes Percent Difference between Modeled and Observed Left % % NB Through % % Right % % Left % % EB Through % % Right % % Left % % SB Through % % Right % 5 5 0% Left 0 0 0% % WB Through % % Right % % Intersection % % Left % % NB Through % % Right % % Left % % EB Through % % Right % % Left % % SB Through % % Right % % Left % % WB Through % % Right % % Intersection % % Appendices

29 Grant Avenue & Wellington Road Grant Avenue & Taney Road (South) Grant Avenue & Byrd Drive / Bartow Street Grant Avenue & Douglas Street Grant Avenue Streetscape Traffic Analysis NB Left % 9 9 0% Through % % EB Left % % Right % % SB Through % % Right % % Intersection % % Left % % NB Through % % Right % 5 5 0% Left % % EB Through 0 0 0% 0 0 0% Right % % Left 0 0 0% % SB Through % % Right % % Left % % WB Through 0 0 0% 0 0 0% Right % 6 6 0% Intersection % % NB Left % % Through % % EB Left % % Right % % SB Through % % Right % % Intersection % % Left % % NB Through % % Right % % Left % % EB Through % % Right % % Left % % SB Through % % Right % % Left % % WB Through % % Right % % Intersection % % Appendices

30 Scenario Existing 2040 No 2040 Existing 2040 No Appendix B Overall Delay (LOS) 2.7 (A) 2.9 (A) 2.6 (A) 2.8 (A) 2.6 (A) 2.5 (A) 2.3 (A) 2.7 (A) Grant Avenue and Lee Avenue Delay per Lane Group by Approach (sec/veh) (Level of Service) [Volume to Capacity Ratio] Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT 22.7 (C) [0.13] 26.7 (D) [0.155] 34.2 (D) [0.272] 34.2 (D) [0.247] 9.4 (A) [0.036] AM Peak Hour 16.4 (C) [0.099] 8.2 (A) [0.09] 8.1 (A) [0.004] 16.1 (C) 16.4 (C) 1.8 (A) 0.1 (A) 17.7 (C) [0.177] 16.9 (C) [0.104] 8.2 (A) [0.091] 8.1 (A) [0.004] 17.7 (C) 16.9 (C) 1.8 (A) 0.1 (A) 9.6 (A) [0.037] 18.4 (C) [0.114] 8.3 (A) [0.094] 8.2 (A) [0.004] 18.2 (C) 18.4 (C) 1.6 (A) 0.1 (A) 20.3 (C) [0.206] 19.0 (C) [0.12] 8.3 (A) [0.094] 8.3 (A) [0.004] 20.3 (C) 19.0 (C) 1.6 (A) 0.1 (A) 10.7 (B) [0.101] PM Peak Hour 18.6 (C) [0.115] 8.7 (A) [0.014] 8.4 (A) [0.013] 19.9 (C) 18.6 (C) 0.2 (A) 0.3 (A) 19.8 (C) [0.298] 17.9 (C) [0.098] 8.5(A) [0.011] 8.3 (A) [0.004] 19.8 (C) 17.9 (C) 2.0 (A) 0.2 (A) 10.8 (B) [0.092] 18.8 (C) [0.105] 8.7 (A) [0.012] 8.5 (A) [0.011] 19.9 (C) 18.8 (C) 0.2 (A) 0.3 (A) 25.0 (D) [0.366] 21.4 (C) [0.122] 8.7 (A) [0.012] 8.5 (A) [0.011] 25.0 (D) 21.4 (C) 0.2 (A) 0.2 (A) 0.1 (A) 0.1 (A) Appendices

31 Scenario Existing 2040 No 2040 Existing 2040 No 2040 Overall Delay (LOS) 13.4 (B) [0.55] 26.0 (C) [0.60] 12.5 (B) [0.53] 29.5 (C) [0.79] 14.9 (B) [0.70] 22.3 (C) [0.80] 16.7 (B) [0.79] 36.2 (D) [0.91] Grant Avenue and Prince William Street Delay per Lane Group by Approach (sec/veh) (Level of Service) [Volume to Capacity Ratio] Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT 28.9 (C) [0.66] 71.4 (E) [0.68] 26.8 (C) [0.58] 30.0 (C) [0.42] 37.1 (D) [.72] 27.1 (C) [0.28] 35.6 (D) [0.72] 35.6 (D) [0.44] 20.6 (C) [0.02] 54.4 (D) [0.66] AM Peak Hour 16.8 (B) [0.22] 9.3 (A) [0.43] 8.7 (A) [0.40] 28.0 (C) 22.7 (C) 9.3 (A) 8.7 (A) 62.7 (E) [0.52] 56.2 (E) [0.23] 80.2 (F) [0.77] 9.5 (A) [0.55] 8.2 (A) [0.53] 66.0 (E) 76.4 (E) 9.5 (A) 8.2 (A) 23.5 (C) [0.06] 33.3 (D) [0.47] 18.5 (B) [0.26] 8.6 (A) [0.46] 8.0 (A) [0.46] 26.8 (C) 20.8 (C) 8.6 (A) 8.0 (A) 32.3 (C) [0.42] 28.5 (C) [0.15] 52.1 (D) [0.84] 35.2 (D) [0.91] 10.4 (B) [0.54] 31.4 (C) 48.4 (D) 35.2 (D) 9.8 (A) 23.2 (C) [0.03] 30.9 (C) [0.57] PM Peak Hour 9.6 (A) [0.36] 16.4 (B) [0.36] 10.0 (B) [0.39] 12.0 (B) [0.64] 34.2 (C) 20.8 (C) 10.0 (B) 12.0 (B) 31.1 (C) [0.43] 25.9 (C) [0.32] 40.0 (D) [0.79] 19.1 (B) [0.67] 7.9 (A) [0.15] 29.7 (C) 35.7 (D) 19.1 (B) 17.9 (B) 22.2 (C) [0.02] 32.0 (C) [0.60] 18.7 (B) [0.80] 15.6 (B) [0.38] 11.6 (B) [0.46] 15.4 (B) [0.75] 32.8 (C) 20.6 (C) 11.6 (B) 15.4 (B) 39.6 (D) [0.51] 33.4 (C) [0.43] 78.4 (E) [0.95] 38.0 (D) [0.92] 8.5 (A) [0.31] 38.2 (D) 64.7 (E) 38.0 (D) 24.1 (C) 25.3 (C) [0.89] Appendices

32 Scenario Existing 2040 No 2040 Existing 2040 No 2040 Overall Delay (LOS) 0.1 (A) 0.2 (A) 0.1 (A) 0.2 (A) 0.3 (A) 0.3 (A) 0.3 (A) 0.3 (A) Grant Avenue and Douglas Street Delay per Lane Group by Approach (sec/veh) (Level of Service) [Volume to Capacity Ratio] Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT AM Peak Hour 13.8 (B) [0.026] 8.0 (A) N/A [0.001] 13.8 (B) 17.9 (C) [0.038] 8.0 (A) N/A [0.001] 17.9 (C) 15.3 (C) [0.03] 8.2 (A) N/A [0.001] 15.3 (C) 21.6 (C) [0.048] 8.2 (A) N/A [0.001] 21.6 (C) PM Peak Hour 30.6 (D) [0.074] 10.2 (B) N/A [0.014] 0.1 (A) 30.6 (D) 0.3 (A) 31.2 (D) [0.073] 10.1 (B) N/A [0.014] 31.2 (D) 0.2 (A) 31.4 (D) [0.074] 10.9 (B) N/A [0.016] 0.1 (A) 31.4 (D) 0.2 (A) 44.0 (E) [0.106] 10.8 (B) N/A [0.016] 44.0 (E) 0.1 (A) Appendices

33 Scenario Existing 2040 No 2040 Existing 2040 No 2040 Overall Delay (LOS) 10.9 (B) [0.31] 8.5 (A) [0.43] 11.8 (B) [0.35] 13.5 (B) [.56] 12.5 (B) [0.39] 16.4 (B) [0.65] 13.3 (B) [0.42] 15.5 (B) [0.71] Grant Avenue and Byrd Drive / Bartow Street Delay per Lane Group by Approach (sec/veh) (Level of Service) [Volume to Capacity Ratio] Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT AM Peak Hour 8.9 (A) [0.12] 8.2 (A) [0.01] 11.8 (B) [0.44] 12.5 (B) [0.49] 9.2 (A) [0.21] 8.9 (A) 8.2 (A) 12.1 (B) 9.1 (A) 24.7 (C) [0.06] 24.3 (C) [0.03] 8.9 (A) [0.54] 6.1 (A) [0.28] 24.7 (C) 24.3 (C) 8.9 (A) 6.1 (A) 8.9 (A) [0.13] 8.2 (A) [0.01] 12.8 (B) [0.51] 13.9 (B) [0.51] 9.4 (A) [0.25] 8.9 (A) 8.2 (A) 13.3 (B) 9.3 (A) 16.4 (B) [0.18] 14.9 (B) [0.02] 15.5 (B) [0.75] 8.8 (A) [0.38] 16.4 (B) 14.9 (B) 15.5 (B) 8.8 (A) PM Peak Hour 9.2 (A) [0.16] 8.2 (A) [0.01] 11.2 (B) [0.40] 11.9 (B) [0.57] 13.3 (B) [0.55] 15.0 (B) [0.61] 9.2 (A) 8.2 (A) 11.5 (B) 13.5 (B) 16.9 (B) [0.22] 14.8 (B) [0.02] 10.6 (B) [0.53] 19.9 (B) [0.84] 16.9 (B) 14.8 (B) 10.6 (B) 19.9 (B) 9.1 (A) [0.15] 8.2 (A) [0.01] 11.7 (B) [0.43] 12.3 (B) [0.47] 14.2 (B) [0.60] 16.3 (B) [0.66] 9.1 (A) 8.2 (A) 12.0 (B) 14.6 (B) 25.3 (C) [0.28] 21.9 (C) [0.02] 9.2 (A) [0.55] 18.3 (B) [0.84] 25.3 (C) 21.9 (C) 9.2 (A) 18.3 (B) 8.5 (A) [0.06] 8.5 (A) [0.06] 9.4 (B) [0.19] 9.3 (A) [0.17] Appendices

34 Scenario Existing 2040 No 2040 Existing 2040 No 2040 Overall Delay (LOS) 0.7 (A) 0.8 (A) 0.7 (A) 0.8 (A) 0.7 (A) 0.7 (A) 0.7 (A) 1.0 (A) Grant Avenue and Taney Drive Delay per Lane Group by Approach (sec/veh) (Level of Service) [Volume to Capacity Ratio] Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT AM Peak Hour 12.8 (B) [0.09] 8.1 (A) N/A [0.015] 0.1 (A) 12.8 (B) 0.3 (A) 16.4 (C) [0.126] 8.1 (A) N/A [0.015] 16.4 (C) 0.2 (A) 14.2 (B) [0.105] 8.3 (A) N/A [0.016] 0.1 (A) 14.2 (B) 0.3 (A) 19.3 (C) [0.154] 8.3 (A) N/A [0.016] 19.3 (C) 0.2 (A) PM Peak Hour 21.6 (C) [0.148] 10.1 (B) N/A [0.027] 0.2 (A) 21.6 (C) 0.5 (A) 25.3 (D) [0.164] 9.7 (A) N/A [0.024] 25.3 (D) 0.3 (A) 23.7 (C) [0.153] 10.4 (B) N/A [0.027] 0.2 (A) 23.7 (C) 0.5 (A) 44.5 (E) [0.278] 10.4 (B) N/A [0.027] 44.5 (E) 0.3 (A) Appendices

35 Scenario Existing 2040 No 2040 Existing 2040 No 2040 Overall Delay (LOS) 27.3 (C) [0.51] 28.2 (C) [0.50] 28.1 (C) [0.59] 28.1 (C) [0.59] 30.1 (C) [0.64] 30.6 (C) [0.68] 35.1 (D) [0.80] 35.1 (D) [0.80] Grant Avenue and Wellington Road Delay per Lane Group by Approach (sec/veh) (Level of Service) [Volume to Capacity Ratio] Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT 27.6 (C) [0.28] 27.5 (C) [0.28] 28.4 (C) [0.33] 28.4 (C) [0.33] 26.8 (C) [0.23] 27.0 (C) [0.24] 27.6 (C) [0.28] 27.6 (C) [0.28] 30.9 (C) [0.58] 24.4 (C) [0.04] 28.2 (C) [0.32] AM Peak Hour 29.1 (C) [0.48] 25.5 (C) [0.13] 21.9 (C) [0.21] 29.0 (C) [0.51] 26.1 (C) [0.21] 22.2 (C) [0.42] 23.3 (C) [0.16] 29.8 (C) 27.9 (C) 27.2 (C) 22.7 (C) 30.7 (C) [0.57] 24.4 (C) [0.04] 28.0 (C) [0.31] 29.0 (C) [0.47] 25.4 (C) [0.12] 21.7 (C) [0.20] 28.6 (C) [0.49] 25.9 (C) [0.20] 19.7 (B) [0.40] 21.2 (C) [0.16] 29.6 (C) 27.8 (C) 26.9 (C) 29.9 (C) 33.0 (C) [0.67] 24.5 (C) [0.04] 29.0 (C) [0.36] 30.3 (C) [0.55] 25.7 (C) [0.15] 21.2 (C) [0.23] 29.0 (C) [0.55] 25.8 (C) [0.24] 26.3 (C) [0.53] 23.8 (C) [0.19] 31.4 (C) 28.7 (C) 26.9 (C) 24.5 (C) 33.0 (C) [0.67] 24.5 (C) [0.67] 29.0 (C) [0.36] 30.3 (C) [0.55] 25.7 (C) [0.15] 21.2 (C) [0.23] 29.0 (C) [0.55] 25.8 (C) [0.24] 26.3 (C) [0.53] 23.8 (C) [0.19] 31.4 (C) 28.7 (C) 26.9 (C) 24.5 (C) 33.2 (C) [0.68] 24.8 (C) [0.07] 41.8 (D) [0.75] PM Peak Hour 35.3 (D) [0.76] 24.8 (C) [0.10] 22.0 (C) [0.26] 25.4 (C) [0.32] 24.3 (C) [0.16] 24.1 (C) [0.44] 28.3 (C) [0.55] 29.8 (C) 35.4 (D) 24.6 (C) 26.5 (C) 34.4 (C) [0.72] 24.9 (C) [0.08] 40.6 (D) [0.75] 34.4 (C) [0.75] 24.1 (C) [0.11] 23.6 (C) [0.31] 26.4 (C) [0.35] 25.1 (C) [0.17] 26.4 (C) [0.50] 29.9 (C) [0.60] 32.0 (C) 34.4 (C) 25.5 (C) 28.1 (C) 40.5 (D) [0.84] 25.0 (C) [0.09] 53.3 (D) [0.89] 42.6 (D) [0.89] 24.3 (C) [0.13] 26.9 (C) [0.42] 27.4 (C) [0.42] 25.6 (C) [0.20] 31.1 (C) [0.63] 32.2 (C) [0.70] 36.6 (D) 42.6 (D) 26.6 (C) 30.6 (C) 40.5 (D) [0.84] 25.0 (C) [0.09] 53.3 (D) [0.89] 42.6 (D) [0.89] 24.3 (C) [0.13] 26.9 (C) [0.42] 27.4 (C) [0.42] 25.6 (C) [0.20] 31.1 (C) [0.63] 32.2 (C) [0.70] 36.6 (D) 42.6 (D) 26.6 (C) 30.6 (C) 22.6 (C) [0.06] 60.2 (E) [0.06] 22.9 (C) [0.07] 22.9 (C) [0.07] 23.3 (C) [0.09] 24.0 (C) [0.09] 24.1 (C) [0.11] 24.1 (C) [0.11] Appendices

36 11.3 Appendix C Grant Avenue and Prince William Street - 95th Percentile Queue Length [ft] Scenario Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT AM Peak Hour Existing 120 Null No 90 Null PM Peak Hour Existing 110 Null No 140 Null Grant Avenue and Byrd Drive / Bartow Street - 95th Percentile Queue Length [ft] Scenario Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT AM Peak Hour Existing 30 Null Null No 30 Null Null PM Peak Hour Existing 30 Null Null No 30 Null Null Appendices

37 Grant Avenue and Wellington Road - 95th Percentile Queue Length [ft] Scenario Eastbound Westbound Northbound Southbound LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT LT TH RT AM Peak Hour Existing Null Null No Null Null PM Peak Hour Existing No Appendices

38 11.4 Appendix D Figure 8 Warrant 3 (Peak Hour) Analysis for Grant Avenue and Lee Avenue Appendices

39 Figure 9 Warrant 3 (Peak Hour) Analysis for Grant Avenue and Douglas Street Appendices

40 Figure 10 Warrant 3 (Peak Hour) Analysis for Grant Avenue and Taney Road Appendices

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