Bush Bounce Begins, But Cheney Could Cause Concern

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: CONVENTION OPENER 7/29/00 EMBARGO: 6 P.M. BROADCAST, 9 P.M. PRINT/WEB, Saturday, July 29, 2000 Bush Bounce Begins, But Cheney Could Cause Concern George W. Bush's "convention bounce" has begun early, lifting him to an 11-point lead over Al Gore - Bush's largest advantage in the presidential race this year. But Bush's selection of Dick Cheney for vice president could produce bumps in the road ahead: This ABC News/Washington Post poll finds significant public concern over some of Cheney's votes in Congress and his oil industry ties. FIRST THE HORSE RACE - Bush has 53 percent support to Gore's 42 percent among registered voters. That's improved for Bush from a percent race in an ABC/Post poll Monday, probably because of the hoopla surrounding the Cheney selection and the upcoming convention an early eruption of the traditional convention bounce Campaign 2000: The Race Since January Source: ABC News/Washington Post polls George W. Bush Al Gore Jan 1/16/00 Feb 2/6/00 Feb 2/27/00 Mar 3/11/00 Apr 4/2/00 May 5/10/2000 Jun 6/11/00 July 7/23/00 July 7/29/00 In a four-way race including Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan it s a 12-point Bush lead. Among Registered Voters

2 Bush Gore Bush Gore Nader Buchanan 7/29/00 53% /23/ The numbers are similar among likely voters percent between Bush and Gore; percent between Bush, Gore, Nader and Buchanan. AS TO CHENEY - Six in 10 Americans approve in general of Bush's selection of Cheney. But six in 10 also say they don't know enough about Cheney to have formed an opinion of him, favorable or unfavorable. And ultimately it shouldn't matter much: Customarily it's the top of the ticket that draws the vote, and indeed 77 percent in this poll say Cheney's selection won t make any difference in their choice. Opinion of Cheney Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 29% Still, as people learn more about Cheney, his negatives particularly some of his more conservative votes in Congress may outweigh his positives. That's an opening the Democrats presumably would seek to use against Bush, by saying the Cheney selection reveals him as more conservative than might be popular. (Bush lost support during the primaries when he moved to the right to defend himself against John McCain.) Specifically, three-quarters of Americans respond unfavorably to Cheney's votes in Congress against Headstart and the Older Americans Act. That's only partially mitigated by responses to his role as secretary of defense during the Persian Gulf War (68 percent favorable) or the fact that he served as a member of Congress (60 percent favorable). Credit for Cheney's business experience, meanwhile, is undermined by the unpopularity of the oil industry. Half the sample in this poll was told Cheney has been "head of a large company," and 59 percent responded favorably. The other half was told he'd been head of a "large oil industry company" - and favorable responses dived to 36 percent. No wonder the Gore side has taken to calling Bush and Cheney the "big oil ticket." Response: Favorable Unfavorable Voted against Older Americans Act 16% 77 Voted against Headstart Was secretary of defense Served in Congress from Wyoming Head of a large company* Head of a large oil industry company* *Split sample

3 Much depends, of course, on which images of Cheney stick in the public's mind. Today just 18 percent think he's "too conservative," compared to 45 percent who say he's "about right" ideologically. Thirty-one percent have no opinion. THE TICKER and THE DAD - Sixty-six percent of Americans say they're not concerned by Cheney's history of heart trouble. Thirty-two percent are concerned - and this rises to 40 percent among independents. Similarly, just 26 percent think Bush's father, former President Bush, has "too much influence" on his son's campaign, a charge that arose by dint of Cheney's experience in the former president's cabinet. That inches up to 30 percent of independents, and 40 percent of Democrats. GROUPS Bush's main gain is among independents, where he leads Gore by 20 points, up from two points earlier this week. Independents are the key swing voter group in this or any national election. Bush also has improved his position among women, while maintaining his strong level of support among men. Gore had led among women; now it's a slight Bush advantage. The shift among women is almost exclusively among independent women; partisan women haven't changed. Today 7/23/00 Bush Gore Gap Bush Gore Gap Men 57% % Women Democrats Republicans Independents METHODOLOGY This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 26-29, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,206 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: Here are the full results (*= less than 0.5 percent): 1. How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 7/29/ * 7/23/ * 6/11/

4 4/2/ /11/ /27/ * 2/6/ /16/ * 12/15/ * 10/31/ * 2. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2000 presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Don t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 7/29/ * 7/23/ * 6/11/ * 5/10/ /2/ * 3/11/ * 2/27/ * 2/6/ * 1/16/ * 12/15/ /31/ * 3. If the election for president in November 2000 were being held today, and the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), and (George W. Bush, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 7/29/ /23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ * 1 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ /15/ * /31/ * 1 2 Net Leaned Vote, General Population: Neither Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 7/29/ /23/ * 2 2 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * 2 3 4/2/ * 2 2 3/11/ /27/ /6/ * 2 1 1/16/ * /15/ * /31/ * 2 2 9/2/ * 3 2 8/22/

5 6/6/ /14/ * 2 2 Unleaned, General Population: Neither Wouldn't No Gore Bush (vol.) vote (vol.) opin. 10/25/ /21/ /19/ /23/ How about if the candidates were (Al Gore, the Democrat), (George W. Bush, the Republican), (Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate) and (Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate), for whom would you vote? Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 7/29/ /23/ * 1 1 6/11/ * 1 2 5/10/ Net Leaned Vote, General Population: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 7/29/ /23/ * 1 2 6/11/ * 2 2 5/10/ * As you may know, Bush has selected Dick Cheney as his vice presidential running mate. Do you approve or disapprove of Bush's choice of Cheney as his vice presidential running mate? Approve Disapprove No opinion 7/29/ Will Bush's choice of Cheney make you more likely to vote for Bush, less likely, or won't it make any difference in your vote? More Less No difference No opinion 7/29/ Do you think Cheney's views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right? Too Too About No liberal conservative right opinion 7/29/ Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Cheney, or perhaps you don t know enough to say? Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 7/29/

6 10. I'm going to mention a few things about Cheney. For each one please tell me if it makes you feel more favorable or less favorable toward him. Is that much more/less favorable or somewhat more/less favorable? 7/29/00: --More Favorable--- --Less Favorable--- No NET Much Smwht. NET Smwht. Much op. A. He served as secretary of defense under former President Bush during the Persian Gulf War B. While a member of Congress he voted against funding for the Headstart pre-school program C. While a member of Congress he voted against funding for the Older Americans Act, which provides services to the elderly D. He was a member of Congress for 10 years, representing the state of Wyoming E. Since 1995, he s been the head of a large oil industry company* F. Since 1995, he s been the head of a large company* *asked of half sample 11. Cheney has had three mild heart attacks and had a heart bypass operation 12 years ago. His doctors say he's fit to serve in office. Are you concerned or not concerned about Cheney's physical fitness to serve as president if that became necessary? Concerned Not Concerned No opinion 7/29/ On another subject, do you think that Bush's father, former President Bush, has too much influence in his son's campaign for president, too little influence, or about the right amount? Too much Too little Right amount No opinion 7/29/ ***END***