Two Years Later: Anger, Resolve But Also Lower Ratings for Bush

Transcription

1 ABC NEWS POLL: 9/11 TWO YEARS LATER 9/7/03 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 7 a.m. Monday, Sept. 8, 2003 Two Years Later: Anger, Resolve But Also Lower Ratings for Bush A sense of greater security, unabated anger and steady resolve against terrorism mark the public s mood two years after the Sept. 11 attacks, but so does broader doubt about how the Bush administration is dealing with the issue. Two-thirds of Americans say the country is safer now than it was before the attacks, and 56 percent say the United States is doing all it can to combat terrorism, a critical public demand in the aftermath of 9/11. But 71 percent still worry about further major attacks and fewer than half, 45 percent, are confident the government can prevent them. Indeed one of the biggest changes in the last year is a decline in the number of Americans who think the Bush administration is doing a good job handling the war on terrorism still a majority, but down 18 points from a year ago, to 55 percent. Concern about the situation in Iraq is one likely irritant; Bush s approval for handling it is under 50 percent for the first time in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday Rating Administration's Handling of Terrorism ABC News polls 73% % Positive Negative 50 44% % Now Last year

2 Another concern is Osama bin Laden: With reports of continued al Qaeda-inspired attacks, the number of Americans who say he must be killed or captured for the war on terrorism to be a success has jumped, from 44 percent a year ago to 62 percent now. 80% 70% Yes Must the U.S. Capture bin Laden for the War on Terrorism to Succeed? ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 60% 50% 40% 30% No 20% 10% Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 Sep-02 Now Bush s overall job approval rating, which soared to a record 92 percent shortly after the attacks, dipped to 56 percent in this poll, its lowest since before 9/11. Likely the single greatest reason is the economy, which has gained sharply in the public s mind as the nation s more pressing problem. Sixty-three percent now call it a higher priority than terrorism, up a dozen points from a year ago. PERSONAL ISSUES On a personal level, this ABC News poll finds the attacks seared into the collective consciousness. More than three in four Americans still reflect frequently on the events of Sept. 11, 2001, unchanged in the last year; and one in three thinks about it pretty much every day. Two in three remain very angry about the attack, again undiminished from a year ago. But most people aren t letting the attacks or concern about new acts of terrorism rule their lives. Just over a third say the events of Sept. 11 changed the way they live and of them, more than half say the change was for the better. Many more 67 percent say the attacks did change the way they feel about things; and nearly all, 95 percent, say the events of 9/11 changed the country. Again, though, in both cases majorities say those changes have been for the better, likely reflecting the sense of national pride and purpose that grew out of the attacks.

3 While seven in 10 fear more attacks will occur, half as many are concerned about the possibility they ll personally be a victim. (Both numbers are about the same as last year.) The night of the attack, 87 percent were concerned about additional attacks. Just under three in 10 Americans say the attacks added stress and anxiety in their lives, including one in 10 who report a great deal of anxiety, both essentially unchanged from last year. Not surprisingly, stress levels are higher among those who express high levels of concern about future attacks or about personally being a victim of terrorism. FAMILY TIME One apparent lasting impact of the 9/11 attacks is a renewed devotion to family. Eighty-five percent of Americans call it essential to them to spend time with their families, the same as it was a year ago and a huge 25 points higher than it was in a poll done the year before the attacks. BUSH S STANDING Bush s job approval rating is hardly weak nearly the same as Ronald Reagan s career average (57 percent). But that s well down not only from his 92 percent record in October 2001, but also from his level a year ago, 71 percent, on the first anniversary of the terror strikes. Job Approval: George W. Bush, 2001-Present ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 100% 90% Approve War with Iraq begins 80% 9/11 attacks 70% 60% 3/25/01 Disapprove 6/3/01 8/12/01 9/13/01 10/9/01 11/27/01 1/27/02 3/28/02 5/19/02 6/17/02 7/28/02 9/26/02 12/15/02 1/27/03 2/1/03 2/23/03 3/20/03 4/3/03 4/16/03 6/22/03 9/7/03 Bush s standing is much higher among those who feel safer and who say the country is doing everything it can to fight terrorism. Three-quarters of those who say the country is much safer since Sept. 11 approve of Bush s overall job, compared with only a third of those who say the country isn t as safe as it was. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

4 As usual, Bush s approval is driven by partisanship. It s 87 percent among Republicans, but 33 points lower among independents and just 27 percent among Democrats. Approval of Bush s personal work on the campaign against terrorism remains high, 67 percent. But that, too, is down from 74 percent a year ago and 79 percent at the end of April, as the administration declared an end to major hostilities in Iraq. Forty-nine percent now approve of Bush s handling of the situation in Iraq, down from 56 percent in late August and from 75 percent in late April. Americans reserve their worst rating for Bush s handling of the economy: Forty-four percent approve, while 51 percent disapprove. A weak economy often sours the public mood more generally probably another cause for the administration s lower rating on handling terrorism. HANDLING IT? While Bush s own rating for handling terrorism is high, there s been greater slippage in assessments of his administration s performance more broadly. At the 9/11 anniversary last year, 73 percent gave the administration positive marks for dealing with the attacks and the ensuing war on terrorism; today, as noted, 55 percent do so. Similarly, 54 percent give an excellent or good rating to Attorney General John Ashcroft, a 13-point drop from last September; and 59 percent give the Justice Department a positive rating, compared with 65 percent a year ago. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld s rating is higher but also down, from 76 percent then to 67 percent now. Most other ratings are unchanged or little changed from last year, from 52 percent approval for the FBI to 92 percent for the U.S. military and the people of New York City. Sixty-seven percent give a positive rating to the new Department of Homeland Security. Response to 9/11: Positive Ratings This year Last year Change People of New York City 92% 93-1 U.S. military Country in general Dept. of Homeland Security 67 NA NA Donald Rumsfeld News media Justice Department Bush administration John Ashcroft CIA/intelligence agencies FBI WAR EFFORT The nation gets high marks for defending itself, but there is broad concern that the record won t stand. Eight in 10 Americans say the country has done an excellent or good job preventing other attacks. But more than half 55 percent have only a fair amount of confidence, or less, in the government s ability to protect against a future attack. Last year, 50 percent were confident and 49 percent were not.

5 As noted, two in three people say the country is safer from a terrorist attack now than it was before Sept. 11. That includes a quarter who say the United States is much safer. Views of safety are clearly tied to how confident people feel about the ability to prevent another attack. Nearly eight in 10 who say the country is much safer are confident about preventing future attacks, while about one in four of those saying the country is less safe agree. Nearly seven in 10, 69 percent, say the campaign against terrorism is going well but that includes far fewer, 12 percent, who say it s going very well. And it s down from 83 percent in the flush of victory in Iraq last spring. Again, as expected, there is a partisan gulf on these questions, with Republicans much more likely than Democrats to express confidence in the administration s efforts. FRIEND OR FOE? Time has not softened attitudes toward other countries support for the war on terrorism, especially France and Germany, given their opposition to invading Iraq. A mere 10 percent of Americans say France has done enough to help, compared with 33 percent last September fewer now than say the same about Saudi Arabia. And only 18 percent say Germany s done enough, half what it was last year. Have They Done Enough to Help U.S. Fight Terrorism? Yes No Great Britain 79% 14 Pakistan Germany Russia Saudi Arabia France Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia get low marks for cooperation as well. Only Great Britain, whose troops fought alongside U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, does well in this measure. Nearly eight in 10 Americans, about the same as last year, say it s done enough to support the campaign against terrorism.

6 100% 90% Countries That Have Done Enough to Help ABC News polls 80% 70% 60% 79% 76% Now Last year 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 23% 21% 39% 29% 18% 17% 17% 12% 10% 33% 0% Great Britain Pakistan Germany Russia Saudi Arabia France But if most of these countries are poorly rated for their support, the administration shares some blame: Fifty-seven percent of Americans give a negative rating to its efforts to win the cooperation of other countries in the war on terrorism. METHDOLOGY This ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 4-7, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Fieldwork by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa. Analysis by David Morris. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at: Media contacts: Cathie Levine, (212) or Lisa Finkel, (212) Results follow: *= less than 0.5 percent 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 9/7/ /11/03* /10/ /22/

7 4/30/ /16/ /9/ /3/ /23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/ /23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/02 All /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /17/ /9/ /19/ /21/ /28/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /9/ /27/ /13/ /9/ /12/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22 *Washington Post 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (READ ITEM)? 9/7/03 - Summary Table Approve Disapprove No opinion a. The economy b. The U.S. campaign against terrorism c. The situation in Iraq Trend: a. The economy Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/7/ /11/03*

8 7/10/ /30/ /9/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /5/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /27/02 LV /26/ /8/ /28/ /15/ /21/ /27/ /19/ /6/ /9/ /30/ /3/ /22/ /25/ *Washington Post b. The U.S. campaign against terrorism Approve Disapprove No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 9/7/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 4/30/03 79 NA NA 19 NA NA 2 2/9/03 74 NA NA 23 NA NA 4 2/1/03 75 NA NA 21 NA NA 3 1/27/03 72 NA NA 26 NA NA 2 1/20/03 71 NA NA 25 NA NA 4 12/15/02 79 NA NA 20 NA NA 1 11/4/02 LV 76 NA NA 22 NA NA 1 11/3/02 LV 77 NA NA 22 NA NA 3 11/2/02 LV 78 NA NA 21 NA NA 2 10/27/02 All 74 NA NA 23 NA NA 4 10/27/02 LV 78 NA NA 20 NA NA 2 9/26/02 70 NA NA 28 NA NA 2 9/8/02 74 NA NA 24 NA NA 2 7/28/02 81 NA NA 17 NA NA 2 7/15/02 83 NA NA 15 NA NA 2 5/19/ /21/ /10/ /27/02 88 NA NA 10 NA NA 2 12/19/ /15/ c. The situation in Iraq Approve Disapprove No opinion 9/7/ /24/

9 8/11/03* /10/ /22/ /30/ *Washington Post Compare to: The situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein 3/27/ /23/ /20/ /17/ /9/ /23/ /9/ /5/ /1/ /28/ /27/ /20/ /15/ /4/02 LV /3/02 LV /2/02 LV /27/ /26/ /14/ /29/ Thinking about spending time with your family, would you say that s essential to you, important but not essential, not very important or not at all important to you? Essential Important Not very Not at all No opin. 9/7/ * * 9/8/ * * 7/28/ /2/00* *Roper Starch for AARP: "To begin, I am going to read some things that may or may not be important to you personally. For each one, please tell me whether it is essential to you, important but not essential, not very important, or not at all important to you. If something doesn't apply, just let me know... Spending time with family" 4-7 Held for release. 8. On another subject, what do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: (terrorism) or (the economy)? Terrorism Economy No opin. 9/7/ /26/ /8/ /27/ /16/ Held for release.

10 19. How often do you think about what happened on September 11, the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington - do you think about it a lot, or not all that much? (IF A LOT) Do you think about it pretty much every day, or less often than that? Think about it Don't think No NET Every day Less often about it op. 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 20. Thinking about the September 11 terrorist attacks and what s happened since, how do you feel now? Would you say that you are or are not (READ ITEM)? IF YES: Would you say you re very (READ ITEM) or somewhat (ITEM)? 9/7/03 - Summary Table: Yes NET Very Somewhat No No op. a. Confused about who would do this and why b. Angry at the people who did this c. Confident that the United States is handling the problem Trend: a. Confused about who would do this and why Yes NET Very Somewhat No No op. 9/7/ /8/ * b. Angry at the people who did this Yes NET Very Somewhat No No op. 9/7/ /8/ * c. Confident that the United States is handling the problem Yes NET Very Somewhat No No op. 9/7/ /8/ * 21. Do you feel that the events of September 11, 2001 did or did not change the United States? Yes No No opinion 9/7/ * 9/8/02* 93 7 * *Do you feel that the events of last September 11th have or have not changed the United States?

11 22. (IF CHANGED, Q21) Do you think it s a long-term change or short term? Long Short No opinion 9/7/ /8/ (IF CHANGED, Q21) Do you think it s a big change, or not so big? Big Not big No opinion 9/7/ /8/ (IF CHANGED, Q21) Do you think it s a change for the better, or a change for the worse? Better Worse No opinion 9/7/ /8/ NET TABLES: 21/22 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Long Short No opin. 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 21/23 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Big Not big No opin. 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 21/24 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Better Worse No opin. 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 25. As a result of the events of September 11th, would you say your life has or has not changed in terms of the way you feel about things? Yes No No opinion 9/7/ /8/ * 26. (IF CHANGED, Q25) Has it been a big change, or not so big? Big Not big No opinion 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 27. (IF CHANGED, Q25) Has it been a change for the better or a change for the worse?

12 Better Worse No opinion 9/7/ /8/ NET TABLES: 25/26 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Big Not big No opin. 9/7/ /8/ * 25/27 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Better Worse No opin. 9/7/ /8/ * 28. As a result of the events of September 11th, would you say your life has or has not changed in terms of the way you live your day-to-day life? Yes No No opinion 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 29. (IF CHANGED, Q28) Has it been a big change, or not so big? Big Not big No opinion 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 30. (IF CHANGED, Q28) Has it been a change for the better or a change for the worse? Better Worse No opinion 9/7/ /8/ NET TABLES: 28/29 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Big Not big No opin. 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 28/30 NET -----Yes, changed----- No NET Better Worse No opin. 9/7/ * 9/8/ * 31. For each individual or group I name, please tell me what kind of job you think it s done dealing with the events of September 11th and the war on terrorism excellent, good, not so good or poor.

13 9/7/03 - Summary Table: -Excellent/Good-- -Not so good/poor-- No a. The Bush administration b. The FBI c. The CIA and other intelligence agencies d. The U.S. armed forces e. The U.S. Justice Department f. Attorney General John Ashcroft g. The country in general h. The people of New York City i. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld j. The news media k. The Department of Homeland Security *Half sample asked a-f, other half asked g-k. Trend: a. The Bush administration 9/7/ /8/ b. The FBI 9/7/ /8/ c. The CIA and other intelligence agencies 9/7/ /8/ d. The U.S. armed forces 9/7/ /8/ e. The U.S. Justice Department 9/7/ /8/

14 f. Attorney General John Ashcroft 9/7/ /8/ g. The country in general 9/7/ /8/ h. The people of New York City 9/7/ /8/ i. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld 9/7/ /8/ j. The news media 9/7/ /8/ k. No trend. 32. Now for each country I name, please tell me if you think it has or has not done enough to support the U.S. campaign against terrorism. 9/7/03 - Summary Table: Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion a. Great Britain b. Germany c. France d. Russia e. Pakistan f. Saudi Arabia *Half sample asked a-c, other half asked d-f. Trend: a. Great Britain

15 Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion 9/7/ /8/ b. Germany Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion 9/7/ /8/ c. France Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion 9/7/ /8/ d. Russia Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion 9/7/ /8/ e. Pakistan Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion 9/7/ /8/ f. Saudi Arabia Has done Has not done No enough enough opinion 9/7/ /8/ Do you think the U.S. campaign against terrorism is going very well, fairly well, not too well or not well at all? Well Not well No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op. 9/7/ /30/ /26/ /8/ /15/ /21/ /10/ /27/ Do you think (the United States has to capture or kill Osama bin Laden for the war on terrorism to be a success), or do you think (the war on terrorism can be a success without Osama bin Laden being killed or captured)? US must capture/ War can succeed No kill bin Laden without bin Laden opin.

16 9/7/ /8/ /21/ /10/ /27/ /19/ /6/ For each item I name, please me tell whether you think the United States has done an excellent job on it, a good job, a not-so-good job or a poor job. 9/7/03 - Summary Table: -Excellent/Good-- -Not so good/poor-- No a. Preventing further terrorist attacks in the United States b. Breaking up the al Qaeda terrorist network c. Winning the cooperation of other countries in fighting terrorism * d. Improving U.S. intelligence-gathering and coordination e. Reorganizing government agencies to improve anti-terrorism efforts *Half sample asked a-c, other half asked d-e. Trend: a. Preventing further terrorist attacks in the United States 9/7/ /8/ b. Breaking up the al Qaeda terrorist network 9/7/ /8/ c. Winning the cooperation of other countries in fighting terrorism 9/7/ * 9/8/ d. Improving U.S. intelligence-gathering and coordination 9/7/ /8/

17 e. Reorganizing government agencies to improve anti-terrorism efforts 9/7/ /8/ How much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans in this country: a great deal, a good amount, only a fair amount or none at all? Confident Not confident---- No NET Grt.deal Good amt. NET Fair amt. None opin. 9/7/ /8/ * 7/15/ * 6/9/ * 5/19/ /10/ * 1/27/ /27/ /6/ /11/ /2/ /5/ * 5/14/ /20/ /28/ /3/ * 37. Do you think the United States is doing all it reasonably can do to try to prevent further terrorist attacks, or do you think it should do more? US doing US should No all it can do more opin. 9/7/ /15/ /16/ /19/ /10/ /19/ /27/ /6/ /15/ /9/ How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in the United States - is that something that worries you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all? Concerned Not concerned---- No NET Grt.deal Somewhat NET Not much None op. 9/7/ * 3/20/ /16/ /8/ /15/ * 4/21/ *

18 3/10/ /19/ /15/ /9/ * 10/7/ /27/01* * 9/11/ /13/ * 6/2/ * 8/5/ * 4/20/ *9/27/01 and previous: "How concerned are you about the possibility there will be more major terrorist attacks in this country." 39. How concerned are you about the chance that you personally might be the victim of a terrorist attack - does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not at all? Concerned Not concerned---- No NET Grt.deal Somewhat NET Not much None opin. 9/7/ * 2/16/ /8/ * 11/6/ * 40. Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country today is safer from terrorism or less safe from terrorism? IF SAFER: Would you say the country is much safer or somewhat safer? Safer Less No diff. No NET Much Somewhat safe (vol.) opin. 9/7/ Held for release. 43. Has the possibility of a terrorist attack created extra stress and anxiety in your personal life, or not? (IF YES) Has it created a great deal of extra stress and anxiety, or not that much? Yes NET Grt.deal Not that much No No op. 9/7/ * 2/16/ Held for release. ***END***