Identification of trend patterns related to the dynamics of competitive intelligence budgets (the case of Romanian software industry)

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1 Advances n Manageen & Appled Econocs, vol., no.3, 01, ISSN: (prn verson), (onlne) Scenpress Ld, 01 Idenfcaon of rend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges (he case of Roanan sofware ndusry) Aleandru Capana 1, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 3 Absrac Our paper eanes he challengng ask of analysng he dynacs of Copeve Inellgence (CI) budges whn he Roanan sofware copanes. The paper doesn seek o fnd he opal paern of allocang CI budges fro he busness urnover, as every organzaon nvolved n sofware developen has dfferen goals and requreens for CI easureen. The a s o ranspose he CI budges dynacs n dfferen ypes of rends (lnear, quadrac and eponenal) usng he coeffcen of varaon ehod and o analyse he Roanan anagers decson akng processes relaed o CI budges allocaon, by akng no accoun he peculares of four sofware copanes clusers: sar-ups, eper-coders, uly-developers and sars. JEL classfcaon nubers: M15, C40 Keywords: copeve nellgence, sofware ndusry, cluser, rend paerns, coeffcen of varaon 1 Unversy Dunarea de Jos of Gala, Posdocoral fellow, Unversy Al. I. Cuza of Ias, e-al: aleandru.capaana@ugal.ro Unversy Dunarea de Jos of Gala, e-al: rozala.nsor@selr.co 3 Unversy Dunarea de Jos of Gala, e-al: gana_b@yahoo.co Arcle Info: Receved : May 3, 01. Revsed : June 19, 01 Publshed onlne : Augus 31, 01

2 134 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges 1 Inroducon Heerogeney s a key facor n why carryng ou copeve nellgence projecs n Cenral and Easern Europe (CEE) can becoe e-consung and epensve. Few sudes on copeve nellgence (CI) were underaken n Cenral and Easern Europe and hs s a srong arguen for he developen of our survey. A rend paern ha ncorporaes he CI budges of sofware copanes has a nuber of key advanages. I provdes an eprcally esable bass o assess he eporal evoluon of relaonshps beween he CI budges and he urnover allocaon process. The use of an adequae sascal ool (coeffcen of varaon) allows he deernaon of daa hoogeney degree n he convenence saple. As well, an ephass of he CI budges allocaed by he Roanan sofware copanes provdes a useful knowledgebase for he decson akers fro sofware ndusry. The paper s hen organzed as follows: n secon wo, dedcaed o leraure revew, we hghlghed he evoluon of he CI concep and analyzed he budges allocaed for CI acves; secon hree s a descrpon of our research ehod and nsruenaon; n secon four we provde he analyss and nerpreaon of he colleced daa referrng o he CI budges allocaed whn Roanan sofware ndusry; n secon fve, we presened he conclusons, he laons of our sudy and s anageral plcaons. Leraure revew Jan Herrng, one of he pllars of he CI feld, defned nellgence as analyzed nforaon ha s ade aconable [1]. Ths defnon has been wdely adoped by copeve nellgence praconers and scholars alke [], [3]. The key pons of CI defnon refers o he process of gaherng, collecon, and analyss of raw daa as npu o he CI process, ncludng only legal and ehcal acves, he purpose beng represened by he suppor for beer decson-akng and beer acheveen of he copany s objecves [4]. Mller epands he eanng of hs defnon, consderng ha CI enables anagers n copanes of all szes o ake decsons abou everyhng fro arkeng, R&D, and nvesng accs o long er busness sraeges [5]. Flesher, Wrgh and Tndale, noe ha he feld of CI and s anageen suffers fro a varey of seanc and doan abgues ha rean unresolved afer several decades of research work [6] The advanages of copeve nellgence are focused on he denfcaon of relevan nforaon, he aud process of a copany s scenfc and echncal asses whch allow he coparson wh s copeors, he deecon of arke hreas and opporunes and he desgn of wnnng sraeges n unknown areas [7].

3 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 135 Whle os large frs n developed counres have pleened CI echanss, CI n sall frs s pracced n an ad hoc way. In developng and ranson econoes CI processes are slar o hose n developed counres bu a lower levels of sophscaon wh he one ecepon of huan nellgence neworks [8]. Hughes hnks ha he fr-specfc and ac knowledge of he copeve nellgence personnel can posvely pac he sraegy developen process by ensurng ha he colleced nellgence ges o he decson-akers and becoes negraed no all phases of he sraegc anageen process [9]. Casselan and Sason developed a new concep relaed o copeve nellgence eploaon - Copeve Knowledge Process Capably, whch refers o effecve knowledge processes relaed o capurng copeve knowledge and nhbng copeor appropraon of your knowledge [10]. Copeve nellgence (CI) s also regarded as a syse of envronenal scannng whch negraes he knowledge of everyone n he copany [11]. Brody consders ha CI s a process se n suaons ha are dynac and n whch he players are ovng forward n a consanly changng busness envronen, he varey of defnons ay be a reflecon of ha process of consan change [1]. Accordng o Kruenas [13], he concep copeve nellgence can be ofen found whn large copanes bu rarely n SME s. In addon, any copanes avod he er copeve nellgence alogeher, When hey develop an nellgence funcon, he call arke research or busness nellgence. Many copanes found dffcul o ove her copeve nellgence funcon forwards durng he global econoc crss. Forunaely, budge purse srngs have sared o loosen over he las few years as he global econoy connues on s gradual road o recovery [14]. Copeve nellgence s ofen a relavely sall funcon wh led budge and resources, bu receves addonal suppor fro oher pars of he organzaon. Makng he bes use of hese addonal resources s a challenge for any copeve nellgence professonals [15]. A CI survey developed n Inda reveals he fac ha he frs ha had hgher CI budges, ore dedcaed saff, and reques CI ore frequenly had a hgher perceved benef of CI han ohers [16]. There are a nuber of reasons for sall CI budges: a lack of coen o he CI process - perhaps because he esng process has no showed s value; CI s vewed as an overhead and s perceved as a non-fronlne acvy; op anageen have he false percepon ha hey already collec all sgnfcan nellgence due o her ndusry conacs and nework [17]. Sofware for sae-of-he-ar busness, desgned o ee he busness decson requreens a a cobnng all dsnc ypes of applcaons developed o auoae he nforaon syse acves (Transacon Processng Syses, Manageen Inforaon Syses, Decson Suppor Syses, Eper Syses) no an negraed one, where nforaon s shared and he councaon beween deparens s open [18]. To undersand he os pressng eernal and nernal challenges shapng

4 136 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges arke research and copeve nellgence eecuves plannng, a web-based survey developed by he consulng copany Fros & Sullvan n cooperaon wh SCIP (Sraegc and Copeve Inellgence Professonals) reveals he followng copeve nellgence budges allocaed by he saple of 06 copanes fro Norh Aerca, Lan Aerca, and Europe (Fgure 1). Source: Growh Tea Mebershp research, hp:// Fgure 1: Copeve Inellgence budges by busness odels n 011 The resuls of a research developed whn sofware ndusry reveal ha here s a need for he adopon and growh of he copeve nellgence dscplne n sofware developen as such organzaons appear no o have a srucured and coordnaed progra for he collecon and analyss of nforaon abou copeors [19]. 3 Research ehodology Our research ehodology nvolves he denfcaon of rend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges as effecs of he urnover

5 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 137 allocaon, n he case of a represenave saple of Roanan sofware copanes, clusered n four caegores (sar-ups, uly-developers, eper-coders and sars), accordng o her sraegc poson on he arke. The an creron used n he saplng process of he research was he fraework developed by Nabsan (Fgure ). Source: Nabsan [0] Fgure : Mehodology used n he cluserng process of he sofware copanes In order o deerne he saple of our research, we ook no accoun boh he four clusers of sofware copanes correspondng o Nabsan fraework and oher relevan crera as fr sze, ype of fr and ype of ownershp (Table 1). The saple of he Roanan IT frs was seleced accordng o her anagers avalably o answer o our quesonnares. We presened he research goal o he anagers of 100 sofware copanes and we fnally seleced 58 copanes as he research saple, whose anagers acceped o provde us he budges allocaed o copeve nellgence acves. In vew o acheve our research goal, we conduced a seres of dscusson sessons wh a convenence saple of 58 anagers fro he Roanan sofware copanes n order o assess her decsons regardng he allocaon of CI budges. We were parcularly neresed n developng he rend paerns relaed o he

6 138 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges dynacs of CI budges as effecs of he urnover allocaon and undersandng he ssues relaed o her busness phlosophy regardng he use of copeve nellgence echanss. In hs way, we forulaed hree research hypoheses: Null hypohess - he esence of a rend paern for he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sofware copanes, as a lnear funcon. Frs alernave hypohess - he esence of a rend paern for he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sofware copanes, as a quadrac funcon. Second alernave hypohess - he esence of a rend paern for he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sofware copanes, as an eponenal funcon. Table 1: Dsrbuon of he sofware copanes ncluded n he research saple 4 Daa analyss and ajor fndngs The Roanan sofware ndusry s characerzed by a large nuber of sar-ups, whch are prarly nvolved n he desgn and codng of nor sofware packages and are lookng for collaborave projecs n order o develop her busness acves; he uly-developers are anly focused on how o arke her own sofware producs, whle eper-coders are nvolved n he desgn and codng of ajor sofware producs on conrac bass; he nuber of sars s que led, hese copanes havng he eperse n developng and arkeng nnovave sofware producs. The gradual shf fro cuso developen owards sandard packages n dfferen secors wll be a growh drver for he Roanan sofware arke. On he oher hand, he rsng copeon wll resul n ore refned and specfc applcaons for beer qualy, faser delvery and opzed processes.

7 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 139 Table : The evoluon of he onhly CI budges of he sofware copanes ncluded n our convenence saple, n he perod YEAR CI BUDGET CI CI BUDGET CI BUDGET MONTH (UTILITY BUDGET (START-UPS) (EXPERT CODERS) DEVELOPERS) (STARS) (EURO) (EURO) (EURO) (EURO) January 1.810, ,3.045, ,66 February 1.89, , , ,87 March 1.605, ,31.76, ,0 Aprl.054, ,59.318, ,97 May 1.654, ,41.63, ,95 June.167,4 4.01,56.51, ,99 July 1.995, ,94.636, ,70 Augus 1.311, ,94.389, ,97 Sepeber 1.634, ,.858, ,00 Ocober.51, ,73.587, ,5 Noveber.461,4 4.53,5.493, ,89 Deceber.64, ,04.635, ,31 January 1618, , , ,86 February 1896, , , ,97 March 1935, , , ,69 Aprl 1951, ,95.436, ,3 May 445, ,6.516, ,77 June 188, ,68.66, ,4 July 1850, ,5.864, ,36 Augus 186, , , ,84 Sepeber 1669, ,74.537, ,31 Ocober 185, , , ,59 Noveber 547, , , ,57 Deceber 86, , , ,94

8 140 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges The onhly copeve nellgence budges of he sofware copanes nvolved n our convenence saple were deerned by he applcaon of he percenages assgned by her anagers fro he onhly urnovers. These budges are revealed n Table. We reark an ncrease of he budges assgned o CI acves n 011 n coparson wh 010 a he level of each sofware copanes cluser: 0,31% n he case of sar-ups, 17,79% n he case of uly developers, 6,73% n he case of eper coders and 33,45% n he case of sars. 4.1 Analyss of he rend paern relaed o sar-up frs Usng he daa fro able no., we frsly presened he sascal paern ha we developed n vew o denfy he rend paerns of he onhly CI budges of he sar-ups, n he perod In hs way, we appled he coeffcen of varaon ehod as he selecon creron for he opal rend paern. The coeffcen of varaon s aong he os coonly used sascs for assessng he consequences of group-based dfferences n organzaons. I has been used by organzaonal researchers o nde and copare he nernal varably of he research varables on nuerous densons [1]. The coeffcen of varaon represens he rao of he sandard devaon o he ean, and s a useful sasc for coparng he degree of varaon fro one daa seres o anoher, even f he eans are drascally dfferen fro each oher; n our approach, he budges allocaed o copeve nellgence acons sgnfcanly dffer fro a cluser o anoher whn he research saple. In he condons of null hypohess H 0, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sar-ups) as a lnear funcon ab, he paraeers a and b wll be calculaed by eans of he followng syse of equaons: Consequenly, na b a n (1) ()

9 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 141 and b Usng he sascal daa calculaed n vew o f he lnear funcon (Table 3, n Append), we wll be able o deerne he followng values for he paraeers a and b : , ,4 a 1.959,91 and b 10, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he lnear funcon wll be: I I vi : 100 vi 100 (4) n n 6.763,68 vi 100 vi 14,38% ,9 In he condons of he alernave hypohess H 1, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sar-ups) as a quadrac funcon ab c, he paraeers a, b and c wll be calculaed by eans of he followng syse of equaons: na c b (5) 4 a c Consequenly, a b 4 4 n ( ) (3) (6) (7)

10 14 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges and 4 n ( ) n c Usng he sascal daa calculaed n vew o f he quadrac funcon (Table 4, n Append), we wll be able o deerne he followng values for he paraeers a, b and c : , ,95 a 1.964, (1.300) 13.44,4 b 10, , ,9 c 0, (1.300) Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he quadrac funcon wll be: II II vii : 100 vii 100 (9) n n 6.779,7 vii 100 vii 14,41% ,9 In he condons of he alernave hypoheses H, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sar-ups) as a eponenal funcon ab, he paraeers a and b wll be calculaed by eans of he followng syse of equaons: n ln a ln (10) ln b ln Consequenly, ln a ln n (8) (11)

11 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 143 ln b ln Usng he sascal daa calculaed n vew o f he eponenal funcon (Table 5, n Append), we wll be able o deerne he values assocaed o ln a and ln b : 181,53 6,18 ln a 7,56 ln b 0, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he eponenal funcon wll be: ep ep vep : 100 vep 100 (13) n n v 6679, ,0% ep vep ,9 We reark he followng relaonshps beween he coeffcens of varaon relaed o he lnear, quadrac and eponenal funcons, n he case of sar-ups: vep 14, 0% vi 14,38% vii 14, 41% We can conclude ha he pah descrbed by he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sar-ups s represened by an eponenal rend; n oher words, he second alernave hypohess H s confred. (1) 4. Analyss of he rend paern relaed o uly-developers In he condons of null hypohess H 0, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he uly-developers) as a lnear funcon ab, he values of he paraeers a and b are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 6, n Append , ,83 a 4.168, and b 61, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he lnear funcon wll be: 7.96,1 vi 100 vi 7,9% ,13 In he condons of he alernave hypohess H 1, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed

12 144 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges fro he urnover of uly-developers) as a quadrac funcon ab c, he paraeers a, b and c are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 7, n Append: , ,55 a 4.081, (1.300) ,83 b 61, , ,13 c 1, (1.300) Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he quadrac funcon wll be: 7.49,84 vii 100 vii 7,4% ,13 In he condons of he alernave hypoheses H, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he uly-developers) as a eponenal funcon ab, he paraeers ln a and ln b are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 8, n Append: 199,81 19,06 ln a 8,33 and ln b 0, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he eponenal funcon wll be: v 7.30, ,3% ep vep ,13 We reark he followng relaonshps beween he coeffcens of varaon relaed o he lnear, quadrac and eponenal funcons, n he case of uly-developers: vep 14, 0% vi 14,38% vii 14, 41% In concluson, he pah descrbed by he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of uly-developers s represened by an eponenal rend; n oher words, he second alernave hypohess H s confred for he copanes belongng o hs cluser. 4.3 Analyss of he rend paern relaed o eper-coders The hrd analyss wll be focused on eper-coders ncluded n our convenence saple. The eper coders are ore focused on echnology and hgh-sklled eployees han he uly developers, whose sraegc nenons are ore concenraed on arke analyss; hs fac can be an arguen for lower CI budges n he case of eper coders, n coparson wh he uly developers.

13 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 145 In he condons of null hypohess H 0, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he eper-coders) as a lnear funcon ab, he values of he paraeers a and b are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 9, n Append: , ,54 a.5, 6 and b 30, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he lnear funcon wll be: 6.38,04 vi 100 vi 10,30% , 4 In he condons of he alernave hypoheses H 1, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of eper-coders) as a quadrac funcon ab c, he paraeers a, b and c are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 10, n Append: , ,96 a.408, (1.300) ,54 b 30, , , 4 c, (1.300) Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he quadrac funcon wll be: 6.109,88 vii 100 vii 10,09% , 4 In he condons of he alernave hypoheses H, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he eper-coders) as a eponenal funcon ab, he paraeers ln a and ln b are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 11, n Append: 187, 69 14,95 ln a 7,8 and ln b 0, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he eponenal funcon wll be: v 10.35, ,10% ep vep , 4 We reark he followng relaonshps beween he coeffcens of varaon relaed o he lnear, quadrac and eponenal funcons, n he case of eper-coders:

14 146 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges v 10,09% v 10,30% v 17,10% II I In concluson, he pah descrbed by he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of eper-coders s represened by a quadrac funcon; n oher words, frs alernave hypohess H1 s confred. ep 4.4 Analyss of he rend paern relaed o sars The las analyss wll be focused on he sars ncluded n our convenence saple. Marke leadershp, he os coon sraegy of sar copanes, s based on he copeon on a non-prce bass n order o becoe he os popular arke choce. A sar sofware copany ha pleens a arke leadershp sraegy offers addonal reasons, beyond prce, o ovae s clens. In he condons of null hypohess H 0, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of he sars) as a lnear funcon a b, he values of he paraeers a and b are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 1, n Append: , , 77 a 8.188,33 and b 14, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he lnear funcon wll be: 14.7,99 vi 100 vi 7,4% ,11 In he condons of he alernave hypohess H 1, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of sars) as a quadrac funcon ab c, he paraeers a, b and c are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 13, n Append , ,60 a 7.950, (1.300) , 77 b 14, , ,11 c 4, (1.300) Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he quadrac funcon wll be: ,1 vii 100 vii 7,34% ,11 In he condons of he alernave hypohess H, whch supposes he esence of a rend paern for he X facor (he onhly CI budges, allocaed

15 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 147 fro he urnover of sars) as a eponenal funcon ab, he paraeers ln a and ln b are deerned by akng no accoun he daa sored n Table 14, n Append: 15, 70 34,16 ln a 8,99 ln b 0, Thus, he coeffcen of varaon n he case of he eponenal funcon wll be: v 14.49, ,5% ep vep ,11 We reark he followng relaonshps beween he coeffcens of varaon relaed o he lnear, quadrac and eponenal funcons, n he case of sars: vi 7, 4% vep 7, 5% vii 7,34% In concluson, he pah descrbed by he onhly CI budges, allocaed fro he urnover of sars s represened by a lnear rend; n oher words, null hypohess H 0 s confred n hs case. The lnear rend s anly due o he connuous ncrease of he sars CI budges n he perod The lower he value relaed o he coeffcen of varaon, he hgher he daa hoogeney n he convenence saple s. We reark he lowes value of he coeffcen of varaon n he case of uly developers (7,3%) and he hghes one n he case of sar-ups (14,0%), alhough boh of he curves reflec eponenal rends. These resuls can be eplaned by sgnfcan dfferences n he budge allocaon o CI acves whn sar-ups, whch reveal her enrepreneurs vson regardng he echnques eployed o onor he arke. The uly developers and especally he sars, whch are focusng her sraeges on gaherng and analyzng relevan knowledge abou cusoers and copeors, repored a hgh hoogeney degree of he daa assocaed o CI budges dynacs n he perod Conclusons The knowledge-based socey nvolves he ably o collec copeve nforaon effcenly and ehcally n vew o predc he busness envronen n he fuure. In hs cone, copeve nellgence processes add value o boh he developen process and he sofware producs and servces. Our survey ephaszes sgnfcan dfferences beween he average CI budges eployed whn Roanan sofware ndusry. The copanes nvolved n sofware developen would benef fro he clearly defned paerns relaed o CI budges dynacs by focusng her aenon on he rends whch are specfc o each cluser. Ths research provded an nal nsgh of he CI budges dynacs n he case of he Roanan sofware ndusry; however, hs s only an nal sep no

16 148 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges undersandng how he ncrease of CI budges can prove he sofware copanes ables o face he copeon. A he e of concludng he wrng of hs paper, we are wang for he sofware ndusry s feedback on he relevance of he paern. The fndngs of hs sudy should asss he anagers of Roanan sofware copanes n havng a ore nfored knowledge of CI budges allocaed n hs ndusry. Addonally, hese fndngs provde a decson akng suppor o sofware copanes anagers regardng he opporunes o ncrease CI budges, as a response o copeors naves whn hs hghly copeve arke. The os sgnfcan laon of hs sudy s he use of a convenence saple. The resuls ay herefore no be represenave for he all anagers percepons of he Roanan sofware copanes. Fuure sudes n hs feld could solve hs proble by usng represenave and larger saples. An neresng approach n he fuure research agenda would be o conduc a cross-culural survey n order o denfy he CI echnques eployed by he sofware copanes fro dfferen counres and o analyze he gaps beween he CI budges dynacs, by akng no accoun a large saple of copanes. Acknowledgeens. Ths work was co-fnanced fro he European Socal Fund hrough Secoral Operaonal Prograe Huan Resources Developen , projec nuber POSDRU/1.5/S/59184 Perforance and ecellence n posdocoral research n Roanan econocs scence doan.

17 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 149 Append Table 3: Desgn of he lnear funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of sar-ups LINEAR TREND YEAR MONTH CI BUDGET (START-UPS) (EURO) ( ) a b January 1.810, , ,75 7,08 February 1.89, , ,93 44,48 March 1.605, , ,11 5,31 Aprl.054, , ,9 186,46 May 1.654, , ,47 4,06 June.167, , ,65 78,77 July 1.995, , ,83 96,48 Augus 1.311, , ,01 597,46 Sepeber 1.634, , ,19 84,89 Ocober.51, , ,37 3,4 Noveber.461, , ,55 51,87 Deceber.64, , ,73 69,79 January 1.618, , ,09 351,84 February 1.896, , ,7 84,0 March 1.935, , ,45 54,73 Aprl 1.951, , ,63 49,34 May.445, ,57.010,81 434,50 June 1.88, ,66.00,99 138,1 July 1.850, ,06.031,17 180,88 Augus 1.86, ,98.041,35 754,60 Sepeber 1.669, ,94.051,53 38,0 Ocober.185, ,65.061,71 14,05 Noveber.547, ,54.071,89 475,16 Deceber.86, ,45.08,07 04,88 TOTAL , ,4-6763,68

18 150 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges Table 4: Desgn of he quadrac funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of sar-ups YEAR MONTH CI BUDGET (START-UPS) (EURO) ( ) 4 QUADRATIC TREND X ab c January 1.810, , ,97 0,3 February 1.89, , ,99 49,4 March 1.605, ,85 49,05 Aprl.054, , ,55 188, May 1.654, , ,09 3,68 June.167, , ,47 77,95 July 1.995, , ,69 94,6 Augus 1.311, , ,75 600, Sepeber 1.634, ,8 1.9,65 88,35 Ocober.51, , ,39 318,4 Noveber.461, , ,97 517,45 Deceber.64, , ,39 688,13 January 1.618, , ,75 356,5 February 1.896, , ,69 88,6 March 1.935, , ,47 58,75 Aprl 1.951, ,64.004,09 5,8 May.445, ,75.013,55 431,76 June 1.88, ,08.0,85 140,07 July 1.850, ,1.031,99 181,7 Augus 1.86, ,97 754, Sepeber 1.669, ,73.049,79 380,46 Ocober.185, ,45 17,31 Noveber.547, ,05.066,95 480,1 Deceber.86, ,8.075,9 11,66 TOTAL , , ,7

19 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 151 Table 5: Desgn of he eponenal funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of sar-ups YEAR MONTH CI BUDGET (START-UPS) (EURO) ( ) ln ln EXPONENTIAL TREND ln lna ln ab January 1.810,67 7,50-90,0 7, ,39 1,7 February 1.89,41 7,55-83,00 7, ,11 71,30 March 1.605,80 7,38-73,81 7, ,87 4,07 Aprl.054,75 7,63-68,65 7, ,67 16,08 May 1.654,41 7,41-59,9 7, ,5 193,11 June.167,4 7,68-53,77 7, ,41 311,01 July 1.995,31 7,60-45,59 7, ,34 19,97 Augus 1.311,55 7,18-35,89 7, ,3 56,77 Sepeber 1.634,30 7,40-9,60 7, ,34 49,04 Ocober.51,79 7,7-3,16 7, ,40 359,39 Noveber.461,4 7,81-15,6 7, ,50 559,9 Deceber.64,5 7,88-7,88 7, ,65 731,87 January 1.618,5 7,39 7,39 7, ,08 310,83 February 1.896,07 7,55 15,10 7, ,36 4,9 March 1.935,7 7,57,70 7, ,69 11,97 Aprl 1.951,9 7,58 30,30 7, ,06 5,77 May.445,31 7,80 39,01 7, ,48 478,83 June 1.88,78 7,54 45,4 7, ,94 93,16 July 1.850,9 7,5 5,66 7, ,45 135,16 Augus 1.86,75 7,16 57,8 7, ,00 708,5 Sepeber 1.669,33 7,4 66,78 7,60.004,60 335,7 Ocober.185,76 7,69 76,90 7,61.014,5 171,51 Noveber.547,05 7,84 86,7 7,61.03,94 53,11 Deceber.86,95 7,73 9,8 7,6.033,68 53,7 TOTAL ,9 181,53 6, ,68

20 15 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges YEA R Table 6: Desgn of he lnear funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of uly-developers MONTH CI BUDGET (UTILITY- DEVELOPERS) (EURO) ( ) LINEAR TREND a b January 3.513, , ,73 87,50 February 3.375, , ,61 111,84 March 3.337, , ,49 1,18 Aprl 3.946, , ,37 335, May 4.043, , ,5 370,16 June 4.01, , ,13 86,43 July 3.616, , ,01 180,07 Augus 3.31, , ,89 66,95 Sepeber 3.84, , ,77 96,55 Ocober 4.187, , ,65 05,08 Noveber 4.53, , ,53 478,99 Deceber 4.311, , ,41 04,63 January 3.494, , ,17 736,09 February 3.99, , ,05 36,58 March 4.618, , ,93 64,9 Aprl 4.413, , ,81 1,86 May 4.461, , ,69 16,07 June 4.304, , ,57 34,89 July 4.988, , ,45 386,80 Augus 3.746, , ,33 917,14 Sepeber 4.939, , ,1 14,53 Ocober 4.635, , ,09 151,75 Noveber 5.368, , ,97 519,1 Deceber 5.05, , ,85 94,68 TOTAL , , ,1

21 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 153 Table 7: Desgn of he quadrac funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of uly-developers YEAR MONTH CI BUDGET (UTILITY- DEVELOPERS) (EURO) ( ) 4 QUADRATIC TREND X ab c January 3.513, , ,04 55,81 February 3.375, , ,1 18,35 March 3.337, ,4 85,09 Aprl 3.946, , ,88 9,71 May 4.043, , ,56 354,85 June 4.01, , ,44 95,1 July 3.616, , ,5 150,58 Augus 3.31, , ,8 579,86 Sepeber 3.84, , ,8 35,06 Ocober 4.187, , ,96 77,77 Noveber 4.53, , ,84 559,68 Deceber 4.311, , ,9 90,1 January 3.494, , ,68 650,6 February 3.99, , ,36 81,89 March 4.618, , ,4 337,61 Aprl 4.413, , 4.354,3 59,63 May 4.461, , ,6 31,0 June 4.304, , ,08 05,4 July 4.988, ,5 4.59,76 395,49 Augus 3.746, , ,64 93,45 Sepeber 4.939, , ,7 17,0 Ocober 4.635, ,66 Noveber 5.368, , ,48 41,7 Deceber 5.05, , ,16 151,37 TOTAL , ,55 749,84

22 154 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges YEAR Table 8: Desgn of he eponenal funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of uly-developers MONTH CI BUDGET (UTILITY- DEVELOPERS) (EURO) ( ) ln EXPONENTIAL TREND ln ln ln ln a b ab January 3.513,3 8,16-97,97 8, ,87 37,36 February 3.375,77 8,1-89,37 8, ,34 151,57 March 3.337,31 8,11-81,13 8, ,58 4,7 Aprl 3.946,59 8,8-74,53 8,0 3.63,59 314,00 May 4.043,41 8,30-66,44 8, ,38 357,03 June 4.01,56 8,30-58,10 8, ,97 80,59 July 3.616,94 8,19-49,16 8, ,37 179,43 Augus 3.31,94 8,08-40,40 8,6 3.85,59 60,65 Sepeber 3.84, 8,5-33,00 8, ,64 85,4 Ocober 4.187,73 8,34-5,0 8, ,53 0,0 Noveber 4.53,5 8,4-16,83 8, ,9 497,3 Deceber 4.311,04 8,37-8,37 8, ,91 5,13 January 3.494,08 8,16 8,16 8, ,8 713,74 February 3.99,47 8,8 16,55 8, ,13 340,66 March 4.618,85 8,44 5,31 8, ,37 85,48 Aprl 4.413,95 8,39 33,57 8, ,54 16,41 May 4.461,6 8,40 4,0 8, ,66 1,04 June 4.304,68 8,37 50,0 8,4 4.58,74 4,06 July 4.988,5 8,51 59,60 8, ,81 39,44 Augus 3.746,19 8,3 65,83 8, ,87 917,68 Sepeber 4.939,74 8,51 76,55 8, ,93 06,81 Ocober 4.635,34 8,44 84,41 8, ,0 167,68 Noveber 5.368,18 8,59 94,47 8, ,15 494,03 Deceber 5.05,53 8,56 10,69 8, ,3 59,1 TOTAL ,13 199,81 19, ,1

23 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 155 Table 9: Desgn of he lnear funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of eper-coders YEAR MONTH CI BUDGET EXPERT-CODERS (EURO) ( ) LINEAR TREND a b January.045, ,3.161,54 116,7 February 1.904, ,61.191,6 87,00 March.76, ,6.1,66 54,70 Aprl.318, ,87.51,7 67,7 May.63, ,69.81,78 341,31 June.51, ,6.311,84 00,8 July.636, ,78.341,9 94,3 Augus.389, ,4.371,96 17,1 Sepeber.858, ,07.40,0 456,75 Ocober.587, ,641.43,08 155,47 Noveber.493, ,1.46,14 30,9 Deceber.635, ,5.49, 143,3 January 1.799, ,447.55,3 75,87 February 1.961, ,451.58,38 60,65 March 1.963, ,68.61,44 649,0 Aprl.436, ,085.64,5 05,98 May.516, ,3.67,56 155,71 June.66, ,55.70,6 76,19 July.864, ,31.73,68 131,51 Augus 3.063, ,97.76,74 301,01 Sepeber.537, ,33.79,8 55,3 Ocober 3.193, ,5.8,86 371,06 Noveber 3.14, ,4.85,9 89,57 Deceber 3.146, ,4.88,98 63,97 TOTAL , , ,4

24 156 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges YEAR Table 10: Desgn of he quadrac funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of eper-coders MONTH CI BUDGET EXPERT-CODERS (EURO) ( ) 4 QUADRATIC TREND X ab c January.045, ,88.349,98 304,71 February 1.904, ,6.331,74 47,14 March.76, ,7 41,34 Aprl.318, ,19.307,86 11,13 May.63, ,76.30, 30,87 June.51, ,34.300,78 11,88 July.636, ,68.303,54 33,59 Augus.389, ,5 78,58 Sepeber.858, ,3.31,66 537,11 Ocober.587, ,95.337,0 50,53 Noveber.493, ,4.356,58 136,48 Deceber.635, ,5.380,34 55,18 January 1.799, ,45.440,46 641,01 February 1.961, ,9.476,8 515,09 March 1.963, ,78.517,38 553,96 Aprl.436, ,3.56,14 15,6 May.516, ,5.611,1 94,5 June.66, ,48.664,6 37,83 July.864, ,31.71,6 14,57 Augus 3.063, ,18 80,57 Sepeber.537, ,88.848,94 311,46 Ocober 3.193, ,9 75,0 Noveber 3.14, ,9.993,06 149,43 Deceber 3.146, , ,4 75,53 TOTAL , , ,88

25 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 157 YEAR Table 11: Desgn of he eponenal funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of eper-coders MONTH CI BUDGET EXPERT-CODERS (EURO) ( ) ln ln EXPONENTIAL TREND ln lna lnb ab January.045,7 7,6-91,48 7,68.168,95 13,68 February 1.904,60 7,55-83,07 7,69.194,04 89,44 March.76,36 7,73-77,30 7,71.19,4 56,94 Aprl.318,99 7,75-69,74 7,7.45,09 73,90 May.63,09 7,87-6,98 7,73.71,06 35,03 June.51,66 7,83-54,80 7,74.97,3 15,34 July.636,13 7,88-47,6 7,75.33,90 31,3 Augus.389,08 7,78-38,89 7,76.350,77 38,31 Sepeber.858,77 7,96-31,83 7,77.377,96 480,81 Ocober.587,55 7,86-3,58 7,79.405,47 18,08 Noveber.493,06 7,8-15,64 7,80.433,9 59,77 Deceber.635,5 7,88-7,88 7,81.461,44 174,08 January 1.799,45 7,50 7,50 7,83.518,70 719,5 February 1.961,73 7,58 15,16 7,84.547,84 586,11 March 1.963,4 7,58,75 7,85.577,31 613,89 Aprl.436,5 7,80 31,19 7,87.607,1 170,60 May.516,85 7,83 39,15 7,88.637,7 10,4 June.66,43 7,87 47,4 7,89.667,77 41,34 July.864,19 7,96 55,7 7,90.698,63 165,56 Augus 3.063,75 8,03 64, 7,91.79,84 333,91 Sepeber.537,48 7,84 70,55 7,9.761,4 3,94 Ocober 3.193,9 8,07 80,69 8, ,5 1575,60 Noveber 3.14,49 8,05 88,58 8, , ,96 Deceber 3.146,95 8,05 96,65 8, , ,8 TOTAL ,4 187,69 14, ,01

26 158 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges Table 1: Desgn of he lnear funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of sars YEAR MONTH CI BUDGET (STARS) (EURO) ( ) LINEAR TREND a b January 5.397, , ,05 14,39 February 5.104, , ,74 71,87 March 6.445, , ,43 403,59 Aprl 6.57, ,7 6.56,1 1,85 May 7.164, , ,81 694,14 June 7.089, , ,5 404,49 July 6.940, , ,19 40,51 Augus 7.483, , ,88 369,09 Sepeber 7.694, , ,57 364,43 Ocober 7.643, , ,6 98,99 Noveber 8.78, , ,95 519,94 Deceber 8.677, , ,64 703,67 January 6.640, , ,0 1.76,16 February 8.43, , ,71 373,74 March 9.080, , ,4 48,9 Aprl 8.700, , ,09 346,86 May 8.899, , ,78 36,01 June 8.961, , ,47 515,05 July 7.739, , , ,80 Augus 9.039, , ,85 866,01 Sepeber , , ,54 9,77 Ocober , , ,3 678,36 Noveber 1.188, , , ,65 Deceber 11.70, , ,61 938,33 TOTAL , , ,99

27 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 159 YEAR Table 13: Desgn of he quadrac funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of sars MONTH CI BUDGET (STARS) (EURO) ( ) 4 QUADRATIC TREND X ab c January 5.397, , ,4 607,74 February 5.104, , , ,48 March 6.445, ,06 0,96 Aprl 6.57, , ,53 115,56 May 7.164, , ,76 651,19 June 7.089, , ,75 47,4 July 6.940, , 6.80,5 10, Augus 7.483, , ,01 496,96 Sepeber 7.694, ,8 531,7 Ocober 7.643, , ,31 96,94 Noveber 8.78, , ,1 739,79 Deceber 8.677, , ,65 936,66 January 6.640, , , ,17 February 8.43, , ,86 153,89 March 9.080, , ,45 446,4 Aprl 8.700, , ,8 179,57 May 8.899, , ,91 34,14 June 8.961, , ,78 435,36 July 7.739, , , ,05 Augus 9.039, , ,8 908,96 Sepeber , , ,95 107,64 Ocober , ,86 477,73 Noveber 1.188, , , ,04 Deceber 11.70, , ,96 544,98 TOTAL , , ,1

28 160 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges YEAR Table 14: Desgn of he eponenal funcon paern for he analyss of CI budge dynacs of sars MONTH CI BUDGET (STARS) (EURO) ( ) EXPONENTIAL TREND ln ln ln lna lnb ab January 5.397,66 8,59-103,1 8, ,19 453,53 February 5.104,87 8,54-93,9 8, ,1 90,5 March 6.445,0 8,77-87,71 8, ,0 77,8 Aprl 6.57,97 8,74-78,67 8, ,55 73,58 May 7.164,95 8,88-71,0 8, ,8 664,67 June 7.089,99 8,87-6,07 8, ,50 416,49 July 6.940,70 8,85-53,07 8, ,34 89,36 Augus 7.483,97 8,9-44,60 8, ,9 450,05 Sepeber 7.694,00 8,95-35,79 8,88 7.1,37 47,63 Ocober 7.643,5 8,94-6,8 8, ,81 9,44 Noveber 8.78,89 9,0-18,04 8, ,38 667,51 Deceber 8.677,31 9,07-9,07 8, , 863,09 January 6.640,86 8,80 8,80 9,0 8.36,5 1595,39 February 8.43,97 9,0 18,03 9, ,73 11,76 March 9.080,69 9,11 7,34 9, ,07 399,6 Aprl 8.700,3 9,07 36,8 9, ,41 1,18 May 8.899,77 9,09 45,47 9, ,9 50,15 June 8.961,4 9,10 54,60 9, ,75 43,33 July 7.739,36 8,95 6,68 9, , ,7 Augus 9.039,84 9,11 7,88 9, ,09 861,5 Sepeber ,31 9, 83,01 9, ,94 34,63 Ocober ,59 9,31 93,07 9, ,57 609,0 Noveber 1.188,57 9,41 103,49 9, , ,64 Deceber 11.70,94 9,37 11,41 9, ,44 703,50 TOTAL ,11 15,70 34, ,60

29 Aleandru Capana, Rozala Nsor and Gana Bleoju 161 References [1] J. Herrng, Key Inellgence Topcs: A Process o Idenfy and Defne Inellgence Needs, Copeve Inellgence Revew, 10(), (1999), [] A. Lang, Ipac Busness Decsons wh Copeve Inellgence, Copeve Inellgence Revew, 10(6), (007), [3] B. Glad, The Fuure of Copeve Inellgence: Cones for he Professon's Soul, Copeve Inellgence Magazne, 11(5), (008), 1-5 [4] S. Buchda, Rulers for Busness Inellgence and Copeve Inellgence: An Overvew and Evaluaon of Measureen Approaches, Journal of Copeve Inellgence and Manageen, 4(), (007), [5] S. Mller, Copeve nellgence: An overvew, Aleandra, VA, Socey of Copeve Inellgence Professonals, 001. [6] C.S. Flesher, S. Wrgh and R. Tndale, Bblography and assessen of key nellgence scholarshp, Journal of Copeve Inellgence and Manageen, 4(1), (007), [7] D. Rouach and P. San, Copeve Inellgence Adds Value: Fve Inellgence Audes, European Manageen Journal, 19(5), (Ocober, 001), [8] U. Ganesh, C.E. Mree and J. Presco, Copeve Inellgence Feld Research: Movng he Feld Forward by Seng a Research Agenda, Journal of Copeve Inellgence and Manageen, 1, (003), [9] S. Hughes, Copeve Inellgence as Copeve Advanage, Journal of Copeve Inellgence and Manageen, 3(3), (005), [10] R.M. Casselan and D. Sason, Algnng Knowledge Sraegy and Knowledge Capables, Technology Analyss & Sraegc Manageen, 19(1), (007), [11] J.L. Calof and S. Wrgh, Copeve nellgence - A praconer, acadec and ner-dscplnary perspecve, European Journal of Markeng, 4(7/8), (008), [1] R. Brody, Issues n Defnng Copeve Inellgence: An Eploraon, Journal of Copeve Inellgence and Manageen, 4(3), (008), [13] C. Kruenas, The Esablshen of Copeve Inellgence: A European Perspecve, Copeve Inellgence Magazne, 1(5/6), (009), [14] K. Rohwell, Analys's Corner: Reassessng he Copeve Inellgence Role, Copeve Inellgence Magazne, 14(), (Aprl-June, 011), [15] D. Fehrnger, B. Hohhof and T. Johnson, Sae of he Ar: Copeve Inellgence, Socey of Copeve Inellgence Professonals, 006. [16] P.T. Adda, M Banerjee and P.Shukla, Copeve nellgence and fr's perforance n eergng arkes: an eploraory sudy n Inda, Journal of Busness & Indusral Markeng, 7(3), (01), [17] A. Wess, Copeve Inellgence on a Sall Budge, Copea, Onlne Magazne, (March, 000), hp://work911.co/cg-bn/lnks/jup.cg?id=6794.

30 16 Trend paerns relaed o he dynacs of copeve nellgence budges [18] L.M. Moga, Soluons and Polces for he pleenaon of Busness Inforaon Syses, Proceedngs of he sevenh Adnsraon and Publc Manageen Inernaonal Conference - Sae Refor: Publc Adnsraon and Regonal Developen, Buchares, (June, 1-, 011). [19] P. Thoas and T. Tryfonas, An Inerpreve Feld Sudy of Copeve Inellgence n Sofware Developen, Journal of Copeve Inellgence and Manageen, 3(3), (005), [0] S. Nabsan, Sofware fr evoluon and nnovaon orenaon, Journal of Engneerng and Technology Manageen, 19(), (00), [1] A.G. Bedean and K.W. Mossholder, On he use of he Coeffcen of Varaon as a easure of dversy, Organzaonal Research Mehods, 3(3), (July, 000),

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