ICES advice 2013 for Baltic salmon. Henrik Sparholt, ICES Secretariat

Transcription

1 ICES advice 2013 for Baltic salmon Henrik Sparholt, ICES Secretariat

2 Wild salmon rivers in blue

3 Whole Baltic

4 Effort Effort Salmon fisheries data Development in fisheries Offshore driftnet fisheries Offshore longline fisheries Coastal driftnet fisheries Coastal trapnet fisheries Coastal gillnet fisheries Year Year

5 Smolts in millions Smolt numbers reared wild

6 Salmon fisheries data Utilisation of TAC

7 2 Salmon fisheries data Catches by gear 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% (blank) TN OT LLS LLD GNS GND AN 0% GND=driftnet, AN=angling, GNS=gillnet, LLD=longline, OT=other, TN=trapnet, Blank=unidentified.

8 Salmon fisheries data Catches by fishery 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% river recreational discard unreported misreported commercial 0%

9 Salmon fisheries data Results from Mixed Stock Analyses of catch samples from Main Basin 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % 06FSDP 07FSP 08P 09FP 10DFPS 11DFPS Gulf of Bothnia, wild G. of Bothnia, hatch., FIN G. of Bothnia, hatch., SWE Gulf of Finland, hatch. Eastern Main Basin

10 Number of wild salmon River data on salmon populations Spawner counts in Bothnian Bay rivers Assessment unit 1 and Kalixälven (au 1) Piteälven (au 2) Åbyälven (au 2) Byskeälven (au 2) Ume/Vindelälven (au 2) Year Figure Total wild salmon run in fish ladders in rivers in assessment unit 1 and 2, in

11 % River data on salmon populations Proportion M74 positive females in hatcheries 100 Sweden Finland

12 Section 5 Assessment of salmon in SD 22-31

13 Smolt production (thousand) Smolt production (thousand) Smolt production (thousand) Smolt production (thousand) Smolt production (thousands) Smolt production (thousand) AU 1 AU 2 Results Year AU 3 (upper bound for PSPC=17) Year AU 4 Smolt production on an assessment unit level Year AU Year All units Year Year

14 Estimates of Potential Smolt Production Capacity

15 Current status 2011 smolt production in relation to Potential Smolt Production Prob to reach 50% Prob to reach 75% V.likely Likely Uncert. Unlikely V.likely Likely Uncert. Unlikely Unit 1 Tornionjoki X X Simojoki X X Kalixälven X X Råneälven X X Unit 2 Piteälven X X Åbyälven X X Byskeälven X X Rickleån X X Sävarån X X Ume/Vindelälven X X Öreälven X X Lögdeälven X X Unit 3 Ljungan X X Unit 4 Emån X X Mörrumsån X X Unit 5 Pärnu X X Salaca X X Vitrupe X X Peterupe X X Gauja X X Daugava X X Irbe X X Venta X X Saka X X Uzava X X Barta X X Nemunas X X

16 Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Tornio spawners Simo spawners Kalix spawners Estimated number of spawners Years Råne spawners Years Pite spawners Years Åby spawners Years Years Years

17 Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Thousand spawners Byske spawners Rickleån spawners Sävarån spawners Estimated number of spawners Years Vindel spawners Years Öre spawners Years Lögde spawners Years Years Years Ljungan spawners Years

18 Survival (%) ratio Post-smolt survival Ratio bet Wild salmon Reared salmon Year

19 Harvest rate

20 Stock projections Scenario Fishing effort for year 2013 and onwards level excluding Swedish longlining 2-20% from level in scenario % from level in scenario % from level in scenario % from level in scenario 1 Post-smolt survival of wild salmon Low survival, 2009 median (7.5%) Post-smolt survival of reared salmon Same relative difference to wild salmon as on average in history M74 survival Historical median (92%)

21 geardays geardays Effort scenarios Longline effort Coastal trapnet effort, Unit

22 Probability of meeting 75% CC obj Probability of meeting 75% CC obj Probability of meeting 75% CC obj Probability of meeting 75% CC obj Probability of meeting 75% CC obj Torne Simo Results stock projections Kalix Year Råne Year Pite

23 Results stock projections River 2011 Year of comparison Scen 1 Scen 2 Scen 3 Scen 4 Scen 5 Tornionjoki Simojoki Kalixälven Råneälven Piteälven Åbyälven Byskeälven Rickleån Sävarån Ume/Vindelälven Öreälven Lögdeälven Ljungan Mörrumsån Emån

24 Results stock projections Catch table for 2013 Effort Total sea catch Reported commercial Reported commercial assuming no misreporting* Scenario Median 95%PI Median % of TAC in 2012 Offshore Coast Median % of TAC (150,427) 107 (87%) (156%) (124,354) 89 (73%) (128%) (97,276) 70 (57%) (98%) (68,191) 49 (40%) (66%) 5 52 (35,99) 26 (21%) (31%) * Implies that the assumed misreporting in the Polish longline fishery is reduced to zero in 2013 Effort River catch No. spawners Scenario Total 95%PI Total 95%PI 1 30 (12,69) 84 (47,138) 2 33 (14,76) 93 (52,153) 3 37 (15,84) 103 (58,170) 4 40 (16,93) 116 (65,189) 5 44 (18,103) 129 (73,211)

25 ICES advice for 2013 ICES advises on the basis of the MSY approach a TAC of not more than individuals of salmon. As the perception of the stock status has not changed markedly since last year s assessment, the advice for the fishery in 2013 is the same as the advice given in 2011 for the 2012 fishery and, therefore, a decrease in exploitation with respect to the TAC implemented in 2012 is required. The share of the total catch that is mis- and un-reported was estimated to be about 30% in Reducing these unaccounted removals would allow a higher TAC recommendation. Salmon management should be based on the assessments of the status of individual stocks in the rivers. Fisheries on mixed stocks that cannot direct fishing only to those stocks that are close to or above their targets, present particular threats, and effort in such fisheries should be reduced. Fisheries in open-sea areas or coastal waters are more likely to pose these problems than fisheries in estuaries and rivers. Salmon stocks in the rivers Rickleån and Öreälven in the Gulf of Bothnia, Emån in southern Sweden, and in a majority of the rivers in the southeastern Main Basin are especially weak and need longer-term stock rebuilding measures, including fisheries restrictions, habitat restoration, and removal of physical barriers. In order to maximize the potential recovery of these stocks, further decreases in exploitation are required along their feeding and spawning migration routes. The offshore fishery in the Main Basin catches all weak salmon stocks on their feeding migration. The coastal fishery catches weak stocks from northern rivers when the salmon pass the Åland Sea and Gulf of Bothnia on their spawning migration.

26 Salmon in Gulf of Finland No analytical assessment model developed for Gulf of Finland salmon Assessment of stock status based on trend analyses of densities of juveniles in rivers, and time series on smolt production estimates Data from 2011 does not change the inference about population status

27 Development in parr densities in Estonian wild rivers in SD Kunda Keila Vasalemma Numer of 0+ parr/100m

28 ICES advice for 2013 ICES advises on the basis of precautionary considerations that catches of wild salmon should be kept to a minimum. To maintain a low bycatch of wild salmon in the coastal salmon fisheries, effort should be reduced in these fisheries. Additional measures to minimize catch of wild salmon in coastal fisheries close to the wild salmon rivers should be considered. Such measures could include relocation of coastal fisheries away from sites likely to be on the migration paths of Gulf of Finland wild salmon, relocating fisheries away from rivers and river mouths supporting wild stocks, and protection of wild salmon (from poaching) when they return to rivers. Also, reduction in exploitation in the fishery in the Main Basin needs to be considered as salmon from the Gulf of Finland to a large extent have the Main Basin as their feeding area.

29 Thanks for your attension