AN APPROACH FOR HOLISTIC FATIGUE RISK MONITORING AND CONTROL

Transcription

1 IASS, November 2016, Dubai AN APPROACH FOR HOLISTIC FATIGUE RISK MONITORING AND CONTROL Tomas Klemets Head of Scheduling Safety, Jeppesen

2 What is fatigue? A physiological state of reduced mental or physical performance capability resulting from sleep loss, extended wakefulness, circadian phase, and/or workload (mental and/or physical activity) that can impair a person s alertness and ability to perform safety related operational duties. ICAO Fatigue Risk the risk of a lapse, slip, mistake and/or violation by crew as a consequence of reduced alertness, with potential negatively impact on flight safety. 2

3 Fatigue risk factors Personal Life style, Responsibility, Knowledge Operational SOPs, Hotels, Staffing level, Equipment, Communication, Just culture Business Model Flight schedule Agreements Regulation, CLA/Union, Scheduling rules Tools Crew Management, Gathering knowledge, Prevention, Awareness, Mitigation, Reporting 3

4 And a Fatigue Risk Management System? (FRMS) 4

5 1. Where in your operation are you most likely to suffer your next fatigue related incident or accident? 2. How do you know that? 3. What do you do about it? 4. How effective is it? Slide #5

6 Fatigue risk, and addressing it... Main physiological factors: Time awake Time of day Prior sleep debt [Secondary: Duty time, number of sectors] Fatigue reports, SMEs High risk to over-focus on outliers or very few flights SMEs needs to work data-driven Traditional rules Max duty time, minimum rest etc. Ineffective, may even drive fatigue risk 6

7 BMMs... Today extensively validated, and with quantified accuracy Excellent complement to operational experience Quantitative, not just Qualitative Also; actual safety outcomes Low score = 95% of crew experiencing KSS 8 or KSS 9! High score 0% of crew experiencing KSS 8 or KSS 9 doi: /dvn/26541, 20 Oct 2014 SRI, Swedish CAA, SAS, Jeppesen 7

8 Fatigue Risk Development 8

9 A Real-World Aviation Example 9

10 The Risk of Human Error (Lapses, Slips, Mistakes, and Violations)... Risk of human error Unacceptable Risk Acceptable Alertness hh:mm Risk of human error High Low Alertness The operational risk for the airline is the sum of risk contributions of all the flights (in the tail of the distribution). 10

11 Proposed metrics for overall risk AFR, Absolute Fatigue Risk A weighted sum over all flights, with an accelerating weight as the prediction approaches zero Detailed representation of risk, as we know it. Becomes a bit abstract. Good for identifying the part of operation at highest (overall) risk. NFR, Normalized Fatigue Risk. AFR divided over number of flights. So; An operation keeping it s structure but doubling in size will have 2 times the AFR (double risk for fatigue related incident/accident) but the same NFR (risk profile). Good for spotting trends and picking out base/rank/fleet/station with the relatively highest, or shifting, risk. Risk Alertness 11

12 Monitoring Fatigue Risk 12

13 Control of Fatigue Risk Normal planning rules/focus w/o any true guidance on human physiology Same rules but also using a BMM providing an incentive during planning to avoid poorly planned flights. Same data. Same rules. Almost identical crew efficiency. But much lower risk. 13

14 Summary Traditional rules are blunt instruments Reactive/corrective work from Fatigue reports and SME feedback are not entirely effective Output from Bio-Mathematical fatigue models can be used to effectively monitor, prevent and reduce fatigue risk exposure The industry would benefit standards for predictive risk metrics, such as AFR and NFR here presented. What you can t measure... Gains may be significant... 14

15 15