# NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

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2 NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars /18/ A Minnesota Vikings /25/ H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/ H New York Giants /16/ H Dallas Cowboys /20/ H Chicago Bears /30/ A Atlanta Falcons /6/ H Indianapolis Colts /13/ A Tennessee Titans /20/ A Washington Redskins /28/ A Philadelphia Eagles /4/ H Houston Texans /11/ H Seattle Seahawks /18/ A Chicago Bears /24/ H Minnesota Vikings /1/ A Detroit Lions 7.24 # of Opponents with 8 or more projected wins Teams with 8 or more proj. wins Division game Three home games in a row O/U projected wins for the opponent Days between games Three or more road games in a row 2

3 PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/11/2016 H New England :30 2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay :05 3 9/25/2016 A Buffalo :00 AM 4 10/2/2016 H Los Angeles : /6/2016 A San Francisco : /17/2016 H NY Jets : /23/2016 H Seattle : /30/2016 A Carolina : /13/2016 H San Francisco : /20/2016 A Minnesota :00 AM 12 11/27/2016 A Atlanta :00 AM 13 12/4/2016 H Washington : /11/2016 A Miami :00 AM 15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans : /24/2016 A Seattle : /1/2017 A Los Angeles :25 For week 17 I gave each team a 50% chance of winning their game seeing lines can be very different in week 17 based on motivation the last week of the season. Projected lines from CG Technologies Las Vegas SU Win probability based on past performance for these lines Start time for team (EST) Projected wins

4 AFC NORTH SCHEDULE Pythagorean Theorem The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team s points scored and allowed into an expected winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 season, Baltimore and Cleveland under achieved by a little over one win each last year. Based on this formula there is a chance the Ravens and Browns will do better but the season win numbers for Baltimore are reflecting that. To a lesser degree they are for Cleveland as well. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and losses. Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin 2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Difference Close Games <=7 pts Team W L T W L Wins Losses Pittsburgh Baltimore Cincinnati Cleveland In addition to under achieving by more than one win last year the Ravens and Browns also were unlucky in close games going 5-7 & 1-5 respectively in close games. If those records reverse themselves this year, the two teams at the bottom last year could be better this year. The real question for someone like Cleveland is can they find a way to finally win close games given the poor history of this franchise. TEAM PROJ WINS TOTAL OPP WINS Schedule Rank PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Update: I will update all numbers shortly and post on the website. The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for The expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team, factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. Cincinnati s projected over under win total is 9.39 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents projected win totals, they add up to wins and rank as the 5th hardest schedule. Cleveland has the 5th toughest schedule as well. Pittsburgh and the Ravens are just the opposite with the 30th and 23rd toughest schedules based on projected wins by the odds makers. In other words they have very easy schedules. Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based on those lines. Cincinnati is only projected to win 9.05 wins vs their 9.39 win projection. Baltimore has been over valued according to these numbers by about.70 wins, while Cleveland may be a little under valued, believe it or not. 4

5 Baltimore WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 A Cincinnati /17/ H Cleveland /24/ A Jacksonville London /1/ H Pittsburgh /8/ A Oakland /15/ H Chicago /22/ A Minnesota /26/ H Miami /5/ A Tennessee BYE 11 11/19/ A Green Bay /27/ H Houston /3/ H Detroit /10/ A Pittsburgh /17/ A Cleveland /23/ H Indianapolis /31/ H Cincinnati 8.35 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Cincinnati pm 2 9/17/2017 H Cleveland pm 3 9/24/2017 A Jacksonville :30am 4 10/1/2017 H Pittsburgh pm 5 10/8/2017 A Oakland :05pm 6 10/15/2017 H Chicago pm 7 10/22/2017 A Minnesota pm 8 10/26/2017 H Miami :25pm 9 11/5/2017 A Tennessee pm 11 11/19/2017 A Green Bay pm 12 11/27/2017 H Houston :30pm 13 12/3/2017 H Detroit pm 14 12/10/2017 A Pittsburgh :30pm 15 12/17/2017 A Cleveland pm 16 12/23/2017 H Indianapolis :30pm 17 12/31/2017 H Cincinnati pm 8.34 Good Play Jacksonville in London rather than Jacksonville Face Chicago with Bears off Monday night game Face Miami at home on Thursday night Travel to GB off bye week Travel to Pittsburgh with Steelers off Monday night game against Cincinnati Face Cincinnati off Saturday game extra days rest for Balt No bye week after London game Just 1-4 ats as a road dog last year Bad Face 10 teams projected to win more than 8 games this year Travel to Tennessee off Thursday night game but Titans off bye week Face Lions off Monday night game and Lions off Thursday game (extra 4 days rest for Det) Face Indy on Saturday with Colts off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Buffalo W W 2 A Cleveland W W 3 A Jacksonville W T 4 H Oakland L L 5 H Washington L L 6 A NY Giants L L 7 A New York Jets L L 9 H Pittsburgh W W 10 H Cleveland W W 11 A Dallas L L 12 H Cincinnati W W 13 H Miami W W 14 A New England L L 15 H Philadelphia W L 16 A Pittsburgh L W 17 A Cincinnati L L Projected Wins Baltimore projected win total is 8.70 but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.34 games. 5

6 Cincinnati WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 H Baltimore /14/ H Houston /24/ A Green Bay /1/ A Cleveland /8/ H Buffalo BYE 7 10/22/ A Pittsburgh /29/ H Indianapolis /5/ A Jacksonville /12/ A Tennessee /19/ A Denver /26/ H Cleveland /4/ H Pittsburgh /10/ H Chicago /17/ A Minnesota /24/ H Detroit /31/ A Baltimore 8.7 Play 3 straight home games after 3 straight road games Host Houston on Thursday night 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A New York Jets W T 2 A Pittsburgh L L 3 H Denver L L 4 H Miami W W 5 A Dallas L L 6 A New England L L 7 H Cleveland W W 8 H Washington T L 10 A New York Giants L L 11 H Buffalo L L 12 A Baltimore L L 13 H Philadelphia W W 14 A Cleveland W W 15 H Pittsburgh L L 16 A Houston L W 17 H Baltimore W W Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Baltimore pm 2 9/14/2017 H Houston :25pm 3 9/24/2017 A Green Bay :25pm 4 10/1/2017 A Cleveland pm 5 10/8/2017 H Buffalo pm 7 10/22/2017 A Pittsburgh pm 8 10/29/2017 H Indianapolis pm 9 11/5/2017 A Jacksonville pm 10 11/12/2017 A Tennessee pm 11 11/19/2017 A Denver :25pm 12 11/26/2017 H Cleveland pm 13 12/4/2017 H Pittsburgh :30pm 14 12/10/2017 H Chicago pm 15 12/17/2017 A Minnesota pm 16 12/24/2017 H Detroit pm 17 12/31/2017 A Baltimore pm 8.05 Travel to GB off Thursday night game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Pittsburgh off their bye week Bad Play three straight road games in middle of the season 2-7 ats last year when facing a team over.500 at time of playing them ats last year on the road Travel to Jacksonville with Jaguars off their bye week Host Chicago off a Monday night game against Pittsburgh (extra days rest for Chicago) Host Detroit with Lions off a Saturday game (extra days rest for Detroit) Travel to Baltimore to finish regular season with Baltimore off a Saturday game (extra days rest for Baltimore) Ugly Play 10 games against teams projected to finish above.500 Projected Wins Cincinnati s projected win total is 8.35 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.05 games. 6

7 Cleveland WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 H Pittsburgh /17/ A Baltimore /24/ A Indianapolis /1/ H Cincinnati /8/ H NY Jets /15/ A Houston /22/ H Tennessee /29/ H Minnesota BYE 10 11/12/ A Detroit /19/ H Jacksonville /26/ A Cincinnati /3/ A LA Chargers /10/ H Green Bay /17/ H Baltimore /24/ A Chicago /31/ A Pittsburgh WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Pittsburgh pm 2 9/17/2017 A Baltimore pm 3 9/24/2017 A Indianapolis pm 4 10/1/2017 H Cincinnati pm 5 10/8/2017 H NY Jets pm 6 10/15/2017 A Houston pm 7 10/22/2017 H Tennessee pm 8 10/29/2017 H Minnesota :30am 10 11/12/2017 A Detroit pm 11 11/19/2017 H Jacksonville pm 12 11/26/2017 A Cincinnati pm 13 12/3/2017 A LA Chargers :05pm 14 12/10/2017 H Green Bay pm 15 12/17/2017 H Baltimore pm 16 12/24/2017 A Chicago pm 17 12/31/2017 A Pittsburgh pm 4.93 Good Face Tennessee with Titans off Monday night game vs Indy (extra days rest for Cleveland) Travel to Detroit off bye week with Lions off Monday night game against Green Bay (extra 8 days rest for Browns) 1-7 ats at home last year Bad Travel to Los Angeles to face Chargers with LA off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for LA) Travel to Chicago with Bears off Saturday game (extra days rest for Chicago) Travel to Pittsburgh to conclude season with Steelers off Saturday game (extra days rest for Pittsburgh) Ugly Face 11 teams projected to win 8 or more games, including 7 of their first 8 games Projected Wins Cleveland s projected win total is 4.45 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 4.93 games Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Philadelphia L L 2 H Baltimore L L 3 A Miami L W 4 A Washington L L 5 H New England L L 6 A Tennessee L W 7 A Cincinnati L L 8 H New York Jets L L 9 H Dallas L L 10 A Baltimore L L 11 H Pittsburgh L L 12 H NY Giants L L 14 H Cincinnati L L 15 A Buffalo L L 16 H San Diego W W 17 A Pittsburgh L W 7

8 Pittsburgh WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 A Cleveland /17/ H Minnesota /24/ A Chicago /1/ A Baltimore /8/ H Jacksonville /15/ A Kansas City /22/ H Cincinnati /29/ A Detroit BYE 10 11/12/ A Indianapolis /16/ H Tennessee /26/ H Green Bay /4/ A Cincinnati /10/ H Baltimore /17/ H New England /25/ A Houston /31/ H Cleveland 4.45 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Cleveland pm 2 9/17/2017 H Minnesota pm 3 9/24/2017 A Chicago pm 4 10/1/2017 A Baltimore pm 5 10/8/2017 H Jacksonville pm 6 10/15/2017 A Kansas City :25pm 7 10/22/2017 H Cincinnati pm 8 10/29/2017 A Detroit :30pm 10 11/12/2017 A Indianapolis pm 11 11/16/2017 H Tennessee :25pm 12 11/26/2017 H Green Bay :30pm 13 12/4/2017 A Cincinnati :30pm 14 12/10/2017 H Baltimore :30pm 15 12/17/2017 H New England :25pm 16 12/25/2017 A Houston :30pm 17 12/31/2017 H Cleveland pm 9.54 Face Minnesota with Vikings off Monday night game Travel to Indy off bye week Host Tennessee on Thursday game Host Green Bay off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Host New England with Patriots off Monday night game against Miami and third straight road game for NE Host Cincinnati with Bengals off bye week Travel to Detroit with Lions off bye week 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Washington W W 2 H Cincinnati W W 3 A Philadelphia L L 4 H Kansas City W W 5 H New York Jets W W 6 A Miami L L 7 H New England L L 9 A Baltimore L L 10 H Dallas L L 11 A Cleveland W W 12 A Indianapolis W W 13 H New York Giants W W 14 A Buffalo W W 15 A Cincinnati W W 16 H Baltimore W L 17 H Cleveland W L 18 H Miami W W 19 A Kansas City W W 20 A New England L L Good Host Baltimore off Monday night game against Cincinnati (extra days rest for Ravens) Host Cleveland to conclude regular season off Monday night game (extra days rest for Cleveland) Bad Ugly Face 11 teams projected to win 8 or more games, including 7 of last of 8 games Projected Wins Pittsburgh s projected win total is wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 9.54 games. 8

### NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

Scott Kellen NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE

### NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/2016 14

### NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Opponent off bye week Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions

### NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Opponent off bye week Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions

### NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Opponent off bye week Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions

### NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay

Scott Kellen NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE

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