Agenda Cooperstown / Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum (BBHOF)

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2 Agenda Cooperstown / Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum (BBHOF) Where? Why? What? How did Cooperstown become home to the BBHOF in 1939? The Hall of Fame (HOF) Who gets in to the HOF and how? Borderline inductees, and how they got in. Borderline Candidates. HOF Issues- Past and Present The Negro Leagues, Gambling, and Steroids Can you Compare Baseball Players over Time? Has Baseball Changed? Comparing MLB Players Metrics by SABR and Bill James The Candidates for the Class of 2018 Today s standards for induction a case study You get to vote!

3 Cooperstown

4 Cooperstown: At the Base of Lake Otsego; the source of the Susquehanna River and the Chesapeake Bay.

5 Cooperstown Today

6 Beautiful Scenery

7 Grand Old Homes Small Memorabilia shops

8 Glimmerglass Opera Lake Otesaga Hotel and Leatherstocking Golf Fenimore Art Museum Farmers Museum

9 But Cooperstown s life blood is the Baseball Hall of Fame (BBHOF)

10 317 Plaques in the Hall of Fame

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12 BBHOF Library and Archive Best baseball library and archive in the world

13 What Exactly is the BBHOF? An independent, non-profit educational institution The Buildings are owned by the Clark Estates. Most of its funding comes from the Clark Foundation. It is overseen by a Board of Directors Rogers Hornsby Jane F. Clark and Joe Morgan (HOF) are Co-Chairs

14 Edward Clark Alfred Clark Stephan Clark BBHOF Founder Jane Forbes Clark II 1954 Dir, BBHOF Stephan Clark Jr

15 The Clarks Contribution to Cooperstown Cultural BBHOF, Art Museum, Farmers Museum, Historical Center, Opera House, Summer Entertainment Health/Welfare: Hospital, Scholarships, Nursing Home, Sports Center, Library Businesses: Hotels, Catering, Landscaping, Golf Course Land for Vistas, Schools, Parks, Ball Fields Clark business employ ~4200 people a year Clark Foundation donates up to $7.5M a year

16 The Myth of Cooperstown Henry Chadwick Al Spalding Abraham Mills Abner Doubleday Abner Graves

17 How Cooperstown Became the Home of the BBHOF in 1937 Doubleday Field Stephan Clark Ford Frick Commissioner Landis Hall of Fame for Great Americans

18 Clark, Frick & Landis Agreement of 1937 Clark (Cooperstown) Agrees to: Build/maintain the BBHOF and museum Host/pay for the induction ceremonies Babe Ruth at the 1940 HOF Exhibition Game Frick/Landis (MLB) agree to: Endorse Cooperstown as the BBHOF Site. Select 20 People for the Hall of Fame by 1939 (Centennial) Provide teams for exhibition games

19 Lou Gehrig Babe Ruth Earle Combs Tony Lazerri Questions / Comments?

20 Part II Baseball Hall of Fame (BBHOF) Who gets in to the BBHOF and how? Roberto Clemente Borderline inductees, how they got in, and their impact. Borderline candidates who never made it.

21 What are the Chances of Being Inducted into the HOF? Answer: About 1 in 88 ~19,200 MLB Ball Players since MLB players inducted into the HOF (1.1%) Jackie Yogi

22 How were the 317 Inductees Selected? Fisk and Bench 124 MLB Players selected by the BBWAA 167 Players/Non-Players selected by the Veterans Committees 26 players/execs selected by Committees on Negro Leagues Bob Gibson Cal Ripken, Jr Cool Papa Bell

23 Today s BBHOF Voting Rules BBWAA - Need 75% of the vote to be admitted: Player must be retired for 5 years before being considered A Screening Committee creates a list of ~25 new candidates per year This list is combined with Candidates who earned 5-74% of the vote last year Candidates can stay on the ballot (if they get >5%) for up to 10 years Veterans Committee need 75% of the vote to be admitted Early Baseball ( ) will meet in 2020, 2030 Golden Days ( ) will meet in 2020, 2025 Modern Baseball ( ) will meet in 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024 Today's Game (1988 and later) will meet in 2018, 2021, 2023 Pee Wee Reese

24 Where: 317 BBHOF Inductees by Position/Job Pitcher - 77 Catcher - 18 First Base 23 Second Base- 21 Third Base - 16 Short Stop - 24 Left Field - 22 Center Field - 24 Right Field - 24 Manager - 23 Umpire - 10 Executive - 35 Casey Stengel

25 Is there a Standard for Becoming a Hall of Famer? NO HOF voting guidelines: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played. Bottom line: It is a Subjective Decision Branch Rickey Creating a Standard would be a mistake

26 The Borderline Inductees How did they get in? Don Drysdale Waite Hoyt Phil Rizzutto Phil Rizzuto Richie Ashburn Ralph Kiner & Ron Santo Johnny Evers George Kell Hack Wilson Bill Mazeroski Jack Chesbro Ray Schalk Bill Mazeroski Freddie Lindstrom Tinker & Evans

27 BBHOF Inductions by Voting Group by Decade MLB Player Inductions Only BBWAA Vet Com

28 Veterans Committee: The Lee Allen Era A Shift Away from Statistics/Records to the Baseball Story 22 players/exec/mgr Elmer Flick Eppa Rixey Lloyd Waner Lee Allen BBHOF Historian Waite Hoyt Stan Coveleski Kiki Cuyler Edd Roush

29 The Frankie Frisch Era players/execs including the The Frankie Frisch Five Frankie Frisch Chairman, Veterans Committee Jesse Haines Dave Bancroft Chick Hafey Ross Youngs George Kelly

30 Hey wait! How about my guy! Harry Hooper.281 / 75 HR / 816 RBI Rick Ferrell.281 / 28 HR / 735 RBIs Rube Marquard ERA 8 winning seasons out of 18

31 Jerry Holtzman Jack Lang Dick Young BBWAA React 1981/86 Force New HOF Voting Rules Jim Murray The Quality of Inductees goes up

32 HoF Inductions since 2001 BBWAA 30 MLB Players Veterans Committee 19 3 MLB Players 7 MLB Execs / 6 MLB Managers / 2 MLB Umpires 1 Negro League Player Joe Gordon Special Committee on the Negro Leagues Negro League Players 4 Negro League Execs / 1 Negro League Manager

33 Gil Hodges Recent Candidates Lacking Support from the VC/BBWAA Players: Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, Minnie Minoso, Gil Hodges, Vida Blue, Ken Boyer, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Kenny Lofton, Willie Randolph Luis Tiant, Maury Wills, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Ted Simmons, Ron Guidry, Dick Allen Executives: Marvin Miller, Ewing Kauffman, John Fetzer, Bill White Managers: Danny Murtaugh, Charlie Grimm,

34 Tom Glavine John Smoltz Greg Maddux Comments or Questions?

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36 Oscar Charleston Part III HOF Issues Past and Present The Negro Leagues Gambling Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs)

37 The Negro Leagues (NL) Satchel Paige HOF for MLB only Ted Williams Induction Speech 1969 Kuhn s Meeting > Separate Wing Special Committee on the NL Veterans Committee Special Committee on the NL 35 Total Inductees

38 Gambling and Baseball Before 1920 Baseball & Gambling were symbiotic before 1920 Reported Gambling Scandals prior to the 1919 World Series 1908 Playoff Game bribery attempt 1914 World Series upset something isn t right 1917 World Series the Red Sox? 1918 World Series the Cubs? John McGraw Sport Sullivan Hal Chase Arnold Rothstein

39 Baseball, Gambling, & MLB Rule 21 Kennesaw Mountain Landis The 1919 World Series scandal MLB created the position of Commissioner Rule 21 is posted in every clubhouse: Anyone who bets on baseball is banned from the game. Shoeless Joe Jackson

40 Jackson and Rose Jackson admitted to conspiracy to throw the 1919 World Series Jackson admitted in an affidavit and several times afterwards Based on reports, he received $5000 He was a participant, not a leader. Rose admitted betting on MLB games; including Reds games He said he never bet against the Reds He only did it as a Manager Both were banned per MLB Rule 21; ineligible for HOF per HOF Rule 3

41 The PEDs Era: Run scoring picked up

42 And the Home Runs Brought Fans to the Ball Park

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44 Trouble is Brewing MLB declares steroids against the rules 2001/3 Congress tells MLB & the Unions to take action 2003 MLB begins survey testing 2004 MLB expands testing and penalties PEDs testing/penalties expanded BALCO Scandal/Congressional Investigation/Juiced Mitchell Report names 80 MLB players 2013 MLB tests for HGH

45 The Problem for the BBHOF MLB did too little/too late about PEDs. Manny Ramirez Forty HOF inductees played during years Every 2018 HOF candidate played during No HOF guidance to the BBWAA on PEDs It s up to the BBWAAs to decide

46 Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) and the BBWAA Many BBWAA oppose Induction of PED users But which players used PEDs? Other BBWAAs say: PEDs era was a wash. The stats are what they are. If you can induct Bud Selig Bonds, Clemens get in for pre-peds career Rafael Palmeiro Sammy Sosa Mark McGuire Bud Selig

47 Should Clemens get in for his Clean Years? Total Career: W 184L / 3.12 ERA 7 Cy Youngs / 1 MVP / 11 All Stars Clean Years: W 111L / 3.06 ERA 3 Cy Youngs / 1 MVP / 5 All Stars PED? Years: W 73L / 3.21 ERA 4 Cy Youngs / 6 All Stars

48 Should Bonds get in for his Clean Years? Total Career: / 762 HR / 1996 RBIs 7 MVPs / 14 All Stars Clean Years: / 411 HR / 1216 RBIs 3 MVPs / 8 All Stars PED? Years: / 351 HR / 780 RBIs 4 MVPs / 6 All Stars

49 How the BBWA have Voted for Players Suspected of PEDs Use NOT ELECTED TO THE HOF Eric Gagne - Mitchell Report (MR) Juan Gonzalez - MR Mo Vaughn MR Jose Canseco - Self admitted Mark McGuire - Self Admitted Ken Caminiti Self Admitted Rafael Palmeiro - Tested Positive CLASS OF 2018 HOF CANDIDATES Barry Bonds - BALCO /MR Roger Clemens MR Garry Sheffield MR/ Self admitted Manny Ramirez Tested Positive 2X Sammy Sosa Tested Positive ELECTED TO THE HOF Mike Piazza suspicion only Ivan Rodriguez suspicion only

50 Questions or Comments?

51 Part IV - Can you Compare Baseball Players over Time? Baseball rules are largely the same But the game changes every few years How do you Compare Players /Stats between Eras? Analytical Tools Metrics Developed by: the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) Bill James Bill James

52 Josh Gibson Baseball Has Changed Over the Years The rules are largely the same, but: The players have changed since 1901 More players are competing They are larger, stronger, faster The game evolves every few years Different tactics New types of pitches New training techniques and technology Different equipment

53 Ty Cobb Stan Musial Luis Aparicio

54 Ducky Medwick Joe Morgan The Question: How do you Compare Players and Stats between Eras

55 New Metrics Developed by SABR WAR Wins Above Replacement WAR7 The best 7 WAR years for a player. (A HOF should have >30) JAWS The mean of WAR minus WAR7 (a player s JAWS is compared to position players who are already in the HOF)

56 Metrics Developed by Bill James HOFm (monitor) how likely (not how deserving) an active player is to make the HoF. HoF average is 100 Blank Ink Test Led league in a key categories HOF average 27 for position player / 40 for pitchers Gray Ink Test In Top Ten in a key categories HOF average 144 for position player / 185 for pitchers)

57 Metrics Developed by Bill James Eddie Matthews Mike Schmidt Similarity Score Who is the player most similar to? The Ken Keltner List 15 questions which lead to a rational decision on a HoF candidate

58 Earl Weaver Leo Durocher Miller Huggins QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? John McGraw & Connie Mac

59 Part V The Candidates for the Class of 2018 Discussing Today s Standards for Induction With Fred McGriff as a case study You get to vote! Mike Mussina Vladimir Guerrero Chipper Jones

60 Looking at Fred McGriff s Potential for the HoF using Modern Analytical Tools A Case Study Played 19 seasons for Toronto, San Diego, Atlanta, Tampa, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers.284 average /.377 slugging /.509 slugging / 134 OPS+ 441 doubles / 493 homers /1550 RBI / 1349 runs / 2490 hits 5 All Star Games, 3 Silver Sluggers, In Top 10 of MVP 6 Times Great Post Season Player:.303 /10 HR/37 RBI in 50 games th year eligible for HOF voting; Earned 21% of votes

61 Fred McGriff s HOF Statistics McGriff FM Avg. HOF / HOF1B* WAR /66.4* WAR /42.7* JAWS /54.6* HOFm Black Ink 9 27 Gray Ink Similarity Willie McCovey (887) McCovey

62 Comparing McGriff to his 1B Peers ( ) WAR WAR7 JAWS HOFm Jeff Bagwell Frank Thomas Jim Thome Rafael Palmeiro Eddie Murray Mike McGwire Keith Hernandez John Olerud Will Clark Fred McGriff

63 Is McGriff in the Top 1% of his Time? Early Part of His Career Tony Gwynn Carlton Fisk Andre Dawson Jim Rice Dave Winfield Rickie Henderson Eddie Murray Tim Raines Cal Ripken, Jr George Brett Will Clark Harold Baines Steve Garvey Craig Nettles Dale Murphy Joe Carter Later Part of His Career Wade Boggs Kirby Puckett Ryne Sandberg Paul Molitor Ken Griffey, Jr Mike Piazza Roberto Alomar Barry Larkin Jeff Bagwell Frank Thomas Mark McGuire Rafael Palmeiro Albert Belle Bernie Williams Matt Williams Nomar Garciapara

64 McGriff s AB per HR vs. his peers Should he lose votes for being clean? Total on Career McGriff (95-04) 17.8 Bonds (95-07) 12.9 McGwire (95-01) 10.6 Palmeiro (95-05) 18.4

65 HOF Voters use their Cell Phones! Explains the various SABR metrics the easiest to use baseball stat web site. various career leader categories: ERA, HR... WAR, WAR7, JAWS and other basic stats for starting pitchers. Other links to each playing position. This can be sorted as needed. HoF monitor (Hofm)

66 It s Time to Vote! Get your cell phones out! Google this: 2018 Potential Hall of Fame Ballot Baseball Reference

67 Lefty Grove It s Time to Vote! The Ballot is on the last page of the handout Vote for up to Ten HoF Worthy Candidates Bring your completed ballot to the counters up front. We will tally the votes (Need ballot counters) A candidate with 75% of the votes gets in! Candidates with less than 5% are dropped from future ballots

68 Paul Boren Instructor