2014 Tulane Baseball Arbitration Competition Eric Hosmer v. Kansas City Royals (MLB)

Transcription

1 2014 Tulane Baseball Arbitration Competition Eric Hosmer v. Kansas City Royals (MLB) Submission on behalf of Kansas City Royals Team 15

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION AND REQUEST FOR HEARING DECISION... 1 II. CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS AND ACHIEVEMENTS... 2 III. PLATFORM YEAR... 3 IV. COMPARABLE PLAYERS... 4 a. Jason Heyward ($3.65 million)... 5 b. Chris Davis ($3.30 million)... 6 c. Ike Davis ($3.125 million)... 8 d. James Loney ($3.10 million)... 9 V. CONCLUSION... 10

3 I. INTRODUCTION AND REQUEST FOR HEARING DECISION This brief, which is governed by Article VI, Part (E)(10) (a)-(b) of the Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ), analyzes the major league performance of Kansas City Royals (the Club or Royals ) first baseman Eric Hosmer. Mr. Hosmer, who earned $528,250 in 2012, 1 is entitled to a 2013 salary of $3,300,000 based on his career contributions and platform year performance. His salary offer of $4,000,000 is unreasonable, particularly when compared to the salaries of similar players who recently underwent arbitration for the first time. Without question, Mr. Hosmer should not be awarded a salary in excess of $3,650,000, the midpoint between the two parties salary offers. Because Mr. Hosmer has amassed years of major league service time, 2 he qualifies as a Super Two. 3 According to the CBA, this arbitration panel may consider (1) the quality of the player s contribution to his club during the past season; (2) the length and consistency of his career contribution; (3) the record of the player s past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of a player s physical or mental defects; and (6) the recent performance record of the club. 4 Because this is Mr. Hosmer s first arbitration, this arbitration panel should consider both his platform year production and his overall career production. It is important that both of these factors are given a sufficient amount of consideration because this arbitration will establish Mr. Hosmer s base salary for future arbitrations. 1 Eric Hosmer, Salaries, Baseball-Reference.com, 2 Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, 3 A Super Two is a player that accumulates at least two but less than three years of Major League service and has either accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% (rounded to the nearest whole number) in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season. Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement, Id. at

4 II. CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS AND ACHIEVEMENTS While the Royals appreciate Mr. Hosmer s contributions during his tenure, the Club has reservations concerning his inconsistent performance and underwhelming power production. a. First Year Mr. Hosmer showed promise during his rookie campaign in Most notably, he posted an impressive batting average ( BA ) of When compared to other Major League first basemen, however, Mr. Hosmer was pedestrian. Hosmer s home run ( HR ) total, runs batted in ( RBI ) total, on-base percentage ( OBP ) and slugging percentage ( SLG ) did not measure up to those generated by some of the top first basemen in Major League Baseball who qualified for individual batting championships in Table 1: Hosmer s 2011 Statistics vs. 24 Qualified First Basemen 7 Year HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Rank T-17 th 17 th 9 th 18 th 12 th 15 th b. Second Year Prior to the 2012 season, the Royals hoped that Mr. Hosmer would build off of his rookie season by establishing himself as a premier first baseman. More specifically, the Royals anticipated that Hosmer would improve his plate discipline and power statistics. Instead, Mr. 5 Batting Average = Hits At Bats. Clubhouse Confidential: Glossary of Terms, MLB Advanced Media, L.P., 6 To qualify for batting awards, a player must amass at least 502 plate appearances. To qualify for fielding awards, an infielder must have participated at his position in at least two-thirds of the number of games scheduled for each club in his league that season. Official Info, MLB.com, On-Base Percentage = (H + BB + HBP) (AB + BB + HBP + SF). OBP is the rate at which a player gets on base relative to his total plate appearances. SLG = ((1B) + (2 x 2B) + (3 x 3B) + (4 x HR)) AB. SLG is the rate at which a player gains total bases relative to his total at-bats. OPS = OBP + OPS. Clubhouse Confidential: Glossary of Terms, MLB Advanced Media, L.P., 7 Player Stats, Batting, Fangraphs.com, on1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0. 2

5 Hosmer s offensive production inexplicably declined in almost every major statistical category for a hitter. Mr. Hosmer, who was healthy until the last week of the regular season, 8 struggled to hit for power and drive in runs, which is evidenced by his low RBI total, home run total, and slugging percentage. In addition, Hosmer exhibited very poor plate discipline, which is illustrated by his low batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. Table 2: 2011 v Statistics 9 Year HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Decline To put Hosmer s 2012 statistics into perspective, he was one of the worst offensive first basemen in Major League Baseball. Of the 25 qualified first basemen in Major League Baseball, Hosmer ranked 21 st in home runs, 23 rd in RBIs, 20 th in batting average, 24 th in on-base percentage, 24 th in slugging percentage, and 24 th in OPS. Mr. Hosmer struggled defensively as well, committing the 4 th most errors (9) of any qualified first baseman. Further, most of his qualified teammates outperformed Mr. Hosmer offensively. Table 3: Hosmer s 2012 Statistics v. 6 Qualified Royals 1 Year HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Rank 4 th 4 th 6 th 4 th 6 th 6 th III. PLATFORM YEAR Although Hosmer improved in 2013 and generated some statistics that mirrored his rookie season numbers, he still did not produce the power numbers that the Club had hoped for 8 On September 27, 2012, Hosmer strained his right shoulder in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers and miss the last six games of the season. Hosmer, Escobar exit finale with shoulder injuries. MLB.com, 9 Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, 3

6 from its starting first baseman. In fact, his slugging percentage was 17 points lower than his rookie season slugging percentage (.465 SLG in 2011 vs..448 SLG in 2013), and he produced fewer home runs (19 HR in 2011 vs. 17 HR in 2013). Additionally, Hosmer s RBI total only increased by one run (78 RBI in 2011 vs. 79 RBI in 2013). Furthermore, most of his power statistics, once again, did not measure up to those of other qualified first basemen. Table 4: Hosmer s Platform Year Statistics vs. 25 Qualified First Basement 10 Year HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Rank T-20 th 14 th 5 th 11 th 15 th 13 th Moving forward, the Club does not know what to expect from Mr. Hosmer in The Royals fear that Mr. Hosmer could revert to his 2012 form because he has yet to produce consecutive quality seasons. Moreover, the Club is concerned that Mr. Hosmer has plateaued in some respects, particularly in terms of power production. In three straight seasons, he has yet to hit more than 20 home runs in a single season. Table 5: Hosmer Career Summary Year HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS IV. COMPARABLE PLAYERS There are four Major League baseball players that recently underwent arbitration for the first time who are comparable to Eric Hosmer: Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves, Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles,, Ike Davis of the New York Mets, and James Loney of the Tampa Bay Rays (formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers). 10 Player Stats, Fangraphs.com, ts=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter= &players=0. 4

7 a. Jason Heyward ($3.65 million) Jason Heyward, a right fielder who signed a one-year contract for $3,650,000 after becoming arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2012, 11 is the best comparison for Mr. Hosmer. Corner outfielders and first baseman profile similarly because most teams expect those positions to hit for power and produce RBIs. In addition, of the nine positions on a baseball field, the corner outfield and first base positions are the least demanding defensively. Therefore, it is appropriate to compare Heyward to Hosmer for salary arbitration purposes. Mr. Hosmer and Mr. Heyward share many similarities. They were both highly touted prospects in their respective organization s farm systems. 12 Heyward finished 2 nd in the 2010 National League Rookie of the Year voting while Hosmer finished 3 rd in the 2011 American League Rookie of the Year voting. 13 Both players experienced slumps during their second years in the big leagues. Table 6: Hosmer v. Heyward (Second Year) 14 Year PA AB R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('12) Heyward ('11) In addition, Heyward and Hosmer both won Gold Gloves and primarily hit third in their respective lineups during their platform years Jason Heyward, Salaries, Baseball-Reference.com, 12 Top 50 Prospects: Eric Hosmer, MLB.com, Top 50 Prospects: Jason Heyward, MLB.com, 13 Jason Heyward, Baseball-Reference.com, Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, 14 Id. 15 Jason Heyward, 2012 Batting Splits, Baseball-Reference.comhttp:// Eric Hosmer, 2013 Batting Splits, Baseball- Reference.com, 5

8 Despite these similarities, Heyward has distinguished himself from Hosmer with superior career contributions. Heyward was selected to the National League All-Star team in He also finished 20 th and 28 th in the National League Most Valuable Player voting in 2010 and 2012, respectively. 17 In terms of career performance prior to arbitration, Heyward surpassed Hosmer in almost every major statistical offensive category. Table 7: Hosmer v. Heyward (Career) 18 Player PA AB R 3B HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('11-'13) 1,841 1, Heyward ('10-'12) 1,730 1, Moreover, Heyward outperformed Hosmer in several statistical categories during his platform year. Most notably, he produced 10 more home runs than Hosmer. Furthermore, he established himself as an excellent base stealer, generating the 33 rd most stolen bases ( SB ) of all qualified Major League hitters and almost doubling Hosmer s stolen base total. 19 Table 8: Hosmer vs. Heyward (Platform Year) 20 Year PA AB R HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('13) Heyward ('12) b. Chris Davis ($3.30 million) Chris Davis is an excellent comparison for Mr. Hosmer because he is a corner infielder who became arbitration-eligible after the completion of the 2012 season. Mr. Davis, who had years of service time, avoided arbitration and signed a one-year contract for $3,300, Jason Heyward, Baseball-Reference.com, 17 Id. 18 Jason Heyward, Baseball-Reference.com, Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, 19 Id. 20 MLB Player Batting Stats- 2012,ESPN.com, 21 Chris Davis, Salaries, Baseball-Reference.com, 6

9 Chris Davis, in contrast to Mr. Hosmer, is a prototypical, power-hitting corner infielder who has primarily played first base throughout his career. 22 In almost 200 less plate appearances, Chris Davis hit 27 more HRs and 5 more RBIs than Hosmer during his career prior to arbitration. In addition, he generated a higher slugging percentage and OPS than Hosmer. Table 9: Hosmer v. C. Davis (Career) 23 Year PA AB R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('11-'13) 1,841 1, C. Davis ('08-'12) 1,644 1, Chris Davis shined in his platform year, doubling Hosmer s platform home run total, surpassing Hosmer s platform RBI total, and generating a slugging percentage that was significantly greater than Hosmer s. He produced the third most home runs (33 HR) and the eighth highest slugging percentage (.501 SLG) of all qualified first basemen in In addition, Davis helped guide the Orioles to their first playoff birth since Table 10: Hosmer v. C. Davis (Platform Year) 24 Year PA AB R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('13) C. Davis ('12) Chris Davis, Baseball-Reference.com, 23 Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, Chris Davis, Baseball-Reference.com, 24 Id. 25 Player Stats, Batting, Fangraphs.com, on1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0. _id=118&active_sw=&position=&page_type=sortableplayer&sortorder='desc'&sortcolumn=avg&results=&perpa ge=50&timeframe=&last_x_days=&extended=0 26 Orioles clinch first postseason berth in 15 years,the Baltimore Sun, 30/sports/bal-orioles-clinch-first-postseason-berth-in-15-years _1_orioles-al-wild-card-spot-wild-cardchase 7

10 c. Ike Davis ($3.125 million) Ike Davis, a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2010, 27 is also a comparable player because he is a first baseman who qualified as a Super Two (2.168 years of service time) at the end of the 2012 season. Unlike Mr. Hosmer, Mr. Davis fits the profile for a traditional, slugging first baseman. Despite having significantly less plate appearances prior to arbitration, Davis hit more home runs than Hosmer during his career. In addition, Davis produced a higher on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Table 11: Hosmer v. I. Davis (Career) 28 Year PA R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('11- '13) 1, I. Davis ('10-'12) 1, Davis made few plate appearances during his second season due to an injury. Therefore, to truly compare their career run production, Davis s runs and Hosmer s runs should be viewed in relation to their plate appearances. When measured as a ratio to plate appearances, it is apparent that Davis s RBI and run production was greater than Hosmer s. Table 12: Hosmer vs. I. Davis (Career R and RBI) Year PA R R/PA RBI RBI/PA Hosmer ('11 - '13) 1, % % I. Davis ('10 -'12) 1, % % Even though Davis battled Valley Fever, a disease that could have ended his career, during the first half of his platform year, 29 he almost doubled Hosmer s platform year home run 27 Ike Davis, Baseball-Reference.com, 28 Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, Ike Davis, Baseball-Reference.com, 29 Mets treating Davis as if he has Valley Fever, MLB.com, d=rss_mlb. 8

11 total and produced 11 more RBIs. He also drew more walks (Davis s 61 walks vs. Hosmer s 51 walks) and produced a higher slugging percentage. 30 Table 13: Hosmer v. I. Davis (Platform Year) 31 Year PA AB R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('13) I. Davis ('12) It is also worth noting that Mr. Davis numbers may be deflated because he played half of his games at one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in Major League Baseball: Citi Field. His platform batting average at Citi Field was.188, while his platform away batting average was Players, in general, struggle to hit at Citi Field. Among the 30 ballparks in Major League Baseball, Citi Field ranked 25 th in batting average (.242 BA) and 26 th in on-base percentage (.306 OBP) in d. James Loney ($3.10 million) James Loney, who signed a one-year contract in 2009 for $3,100,000 after accumulating years of service time, is an appropriate comparable for Mr. Hosmer as well. Loney is similar to Hosmer because he is first baseman that hits for average and does not exert a significant amount of power at the plate. However, Loney, unlike Hosmer, has been consistent with regard to his offensive production, and his statistics deviated minimally from year to year. As a result, Loney produced superior career numbers to Mr. Hosmer. During his Major League tenure prior to arbitration, Loney was more disciplined at the plate, producing an on-base percentage 22 points higher than Hosmer s career on-base percentage. Moreover, Loney s 30 Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, Ike Davis, Baseball-Reference.com, 31 Id. 32 Ike Davis, 2012 Batting Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, Major League Pitching Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 9

12 slugging percentage was 26 points higher than Hosmer s slugging percentage and his OPS was 50 points higher than Hosmer s OPS. Table 14: Hosmer v. Loney (Career) 34 Year PA AB R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('11-'13) 1,841 1, Loney ('06-'09) 1,789 1, During his platform year, Loney still proved to be the more disciplined hitter, producing a higher on-base percentage than Hosmer. In addition, Loney drove in more runs than Hosmer. Table 15: Hosmer v. Loney (Platform Years) 35 Year PA AB HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Hosmer ('13) Loney ('09) V. CONCLUSION Mr. Hosmer s salary should fall between Mr. Loney s salary of $3,100,000 and Mr. Heyward s salary of $3,650,000. The average between these salaries is $3,282,500, which is in line with the Club s offer of $3,300,000. Because Mr. Heyward was a more valuable player prior to arbitration than Mr. Hosmer was, Mr. Heyward s salary of $3,650,000 should serve as a ceiling for Mr. Hosmer s salary. Table 16: Comparable Salaries Player Salary Jason Heyward $3,650,000 Chris Davis $3,300,000 Eric Hosmer? Ike Davis $3,125,000 James Loney $3,100, Eric Hosmer, Baseball-Reference.com, James Loney, Baseball-Reference.com, 35 Id. 10