2014 Tulane Baseball Arbitration Competition Josh Reddick v. Oakland Athletics (MLB)

Transcription

1 2014 Tulane Baseball Arbitration Competition Josh Reddick v. Oakland Athletics (MLB) Submission on Behalf of the Oakland Athletics Team 15

2 Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION AND REQUEST FOR HEARING DECISION... 1 II. QUALITY OF THE PLAYER S CONTRIBUTION DURING PAST SEASON... 2 III. LENGTH AND CONSISTENCY OF CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS... 4 IV. COMPARATIVE BASEBALL SALARIES... 6 A. Garrett Jones ($2.25 million)... 7 B. Tyler Colvin ($2.275 million)... 8 C. Seth Smith ($2.41 million)... 9 D. Summary of Comparable Players VI. CONCLUSION... 10

3 I. INTRODUCTION AND REQUEST FOR HEARING DECISION The following brief analyzes player attributes, awards, salaries, and relevant statistics to determine the appropriate 2014 salary for Josh Reddick ( Mr. Reddick or Reddick ), the 26 year-old and first-time arbitration-eligible right fielder for the Oakland Athletics ( Athletics or A s ). The Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ) between MLB Clubs and the MLB Players Association sets forth the criteria that will be considered in this arbitration hearing. Article VI, Part E(10)(a)-(b) of the CBA outlines the following areas of Mr. Reddick s MLB service time that will be considered: (1) the quality of Mr. Reddick s contribution to the Athletics during the past season, including, but not limited to, his overall performance, special qualities of leadership, and public appeal; (2) the length and consistency of Mr. Reddick s career contributions; (3) Mr. Reddick s past recorded compensation figures; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any mental or physical defects on the part of Mr. Reddick; and (6) the recent performance record of the club. 1 With years of Major League service time, this is Mr. Reddick s first year of arbitration eligibility. 2 The final team offer in this arbitration matter is $2.1 million. The final player offer is for $2.55 million. Thus, the essential figure in this arbitration the midpoint is $2.325 million. Based on Reddick s past performance, his history of physical injuries, and comparable player salaries, he deserves an award for the 2014 season below the $2.325 million midpoint Basic Agreement, Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement, Josh Reddick, Baseball-Reference, 1

4 II. QUALITY OF THE PLAYER S CONTRIBUTION DURING PAST SEASON Mr. Reddick s inconsistent performance during the 2013 season marked a sharp decline from his 2012 contribution, and his season-long struggles began in April. Through the A s first 24 games, Reddick s batting average ( BA ) was just.139, and he had twice as many strikeouts as hits. 3 In 91 plate appearances, he managed 11 hits and just one home run ( HR ). 4 Part of Mr. Reddick s early season struggles can be attributed to a wrist injury he suffered on April 7 th when he collided with a wall while chasing a foul ball. 5 After playing in just six games during May, the A s placed Mr. Reddick on the 15-day disabled list ( DL ). 6 After missing 22 games, Reddick returned from the DL in early June and bounced back from his woeful early season production. He finally raised his season batting average above.200 on June 16 th his team s 71 st game of the season and he eventually posted a.277 batting average for the month of June. 7 Though his average increased however, his power numbers did not as he belted just two home runs and knocked in 10 RBI through 103 June plate appearances. 8 By the all-star break, Reddick had hit just four home runs and had knocked in 32 runs. 9 His.218 batting average ranked 210 th among qualified Major League hitters. 10 * 3 Josh Reddick, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 4 Id. 5 Josh Reddick, 2013 Game Log, Baseball-Reference.com, 6 Id. 7 Id. 8 Josh Reddick, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 9 Id. 10 MLB, Splits, ESPN.com, false/minpa/225, *Out of 229 Major League hitters with at least 225 plate appearances. 2

5 The second half of the season was much the same as the first for Reddick. His average declined during July and August as he hit a combined.207 during those months including a 0-17 slump from July 30 th through August 7 th. 11 He snapped out of his slump with a power outburst against the Blue Jays on August 9th and 10th when he hit five homers in a span of eight plate appearances, which matched his home run total through his previous 316 plate appearances. 12 Reddick s hot bat then went cold, and he did not homer again during August. 13 On August 26th, the A s put Reddick on the 15-day DL for the second time of the season. 14 The chart 15 shows his inconsistent power during 2013: Time Period Plate Appearances Home Runs April 1 August August 9 August August 10 September Reddick ended his 2013 campaign with disappointing numbers across the board as his wrist injury limited him to just 385 at-bats in only 114 games Season Totals 18 Home Runs RBI Batting Average BA MLB Rank* th At the A s home park, O.Co Coliseum, Reddick batted just.200 with only two home runs during 59 games. 20 Even more critically, Reddick struggled heavily against the A s divisional opponents hitting just four home runs during 51 games: 11 Josh Reddick, 2013 Game Log, Baseball-Reference.com, 12 Josh Reddick s home run outburst puts him in elite company, SportsIllustrated.com, 13 Josh Reddick, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 14 Josh Reddick injury: A s RF put on DL with sprained wrist, SBNation.com, 15 Josh Reddick, 2013 Game Log, Baseball-Reference.com, 17 Id. 18 MLB, Splits, ESPN.com, *minimum of 400 plate appearances 3

6 Batting Average Against Divisional Opponents 21 Opponent Games Plate Appearances Batting Average Rangers Angels Astros Mariners His low average at the plate carried over into the playoffs where he went 4-17 during a series that the A s lost to the Detroit Tigers. 23 III. LENGTH AND CONSISTENCY OF CAREER CONTRIBUTIONS Throughout his brief career, Mr. Reddick has flashed signs of power at the plate and strong defensive skills in the outfield, but his inconsistent numbers overall make it difficult to accurately assess his potential. The Boston Red Sox drafted Mr. Reddick in the 17th round of the 2006 MLB June Amateur Draft. 24 After a few seasons in the minors, Mr. Reddick saw his first MLB action in 2009 batting.169 through 62 plate appearances. 25 Mr. Reddick earned another 63 plate appearances and posted a.194 batting average in In 2011, Reddick emerged as a top prospect in the Red Sox outfield, and with injuries to J.D. Drew, Carl Crawford, and Ryan Kalish, Reddick saw significant playing time in the second half of the season. 27 Reddick took advantage of his opportunities and posted a.280 batting average for the season with seven home runs and 20 Josh Reddick, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 21 Id. 23 Josh Reddick, ESPN.com, 24 Josh Reddick, Baseball-Reference.com, 25 Id. 26 Id. 27 A Tale of Two Outfielders, ESPN.com, 4

7 28 RBI through 278 plate appearances. 28 However, Reddick struggled down the stretch as he hit just.235 during August and September, and he underwent surgery on his left wrist following the season leading the Red Sox to trade him to the Oakland Athletics. 29 Mr. Reddick had a breakout year for the A s in He belted 32 home runs, knocked in 85 RBI, and helped lead the A s into the postseason for the first time since Furthermore, he shined defensively and earned a Gold Glove for his prowess in right field. 31 But while his power at the plate was impressive and his defensive skills were tops in the American League, a closer look at his offensive numbers shows his season was largely inconsistent. For the second year in a row, Reddick s performance declined down the stretch as he batted just.215 after the all-star break and just.164 in September and October combined, 32 which included a 0-27 slump that forced him out of the lineup in September. 33 Perhaps most troubling, though Mr. Reddick batted third in the A s lineup for most of the year, he hit just.206 with runners in scoring position and only.191 with men on base. 34 Despite his overall power numbers, his up and down year left A s fans and followers unsure about Mr. Reddick s potential moving forward. 35 In 2013, Reddick regressed as he struggled offensively and missed significant time due to injury. He followed up his 32 HRs and 85 RBI in 2012 with just 12 HRs and 28 Josh Reddick, 2013 Game Log, Baseball-Reference.com, 29 Andrew Bailey deal smart trade for Red Sox, ESPN.com, 30 Josh Reddick, Andrew Bailey and a Lopsided Trade, SBNATION.com, 31 Josh Reddick, Baseball-Reference, 32 Josh Reddick, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 33 Josh Reddick not in A s lineup, ESPN.com, 34 Josh Reddick, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 35 What Can We Expect From Reddick Next Season?, SBNATION.com, 5

8 56 RBI in Further, he batted just.226 for the season, down significantly from.242 in 2012 and.280 in Again, Reddick s poor performance at the plate continued down the stretch of 2013 and into the playoffs. After going 2-17 during the 2012 playoffs, Reddick collected just four hits in 17 at bats during the 2013 playoffs giving him a career postseason average of.176 with two HRs, two RBI, and 15 strikeouts. 37 Following the 2013 season, Reddick had arthroscopic surgery performed on his right wrist by the same physician who had performed surgery on Reddick s left wrist in Based on Reddick s surgery, his inconsistent 2013, and his offensive deterioration down the stretch of the past three seasons, how he ll produce in 2014 remains a huge question mark. IV. COMPARATIVE BASEBALL SALARIES Mr. Reddick s performance during the past three seasons compared to other Major League players with similar statistics indicate that Mr. Reddick should be paid less than the $2.325 million midpoint. Garrett Jones is the most comparable player to Mr. Reddick because heading into arbitration for the first time, both players had very similar statistics during their platform seasons and during their overall Major League careers. Tyler Colvin, an outfielder for the Colorado Rockies is a comparable player to Reddick in that they had nearly the same number of plate appearances during their platform seasons, both spent the majority of their platform seasons playing right field, both battled injuries during their careers, and both had similar career batting averages and on-base 36 Josh Reddick, ESPN.com, 37 Josh Reddick, ESPN.com, 38 Josh Reddick has right wrist surgery, ESPN.com, 6

9 percentages. 39 Finally, Seth Smith is an important comparable player because his superior statistics in both his platform year and for his career demonstrate what it takes for a right fielder to earn above the $2.325 million midpoint in his first arbitration-eligible year. A. Garrett Jones ($2.25 million) Garrett Jones ( Mr. Jones or Jones ), a former first baseman and right fielder for the Pittsburgh Pirates, was a first-time arbitration-eligible player following the 2011 season. Mr. Jones earned $2.25 million for the 2012 season, below the $2.325 million midpoint in Josh Reddick s current arbitration, though Jones statistically outperformed Mr. Reddick in his platform season: Platform Year Comparison 40 Player Year G PA R H 2B OBP OPS HR RBI BA Jones Reddick While their production at the plate during their platform years was similar, Jones edged Reddick in nearly every offensive category. Particularly noteworthy, Mr. Jones put up better power numbers across the board topping Reddick in OPS, 41 home runs, and doubles. Further, Jones s.243 batting average was 17 points higher than Reddick s.226. While Reddick s injuries during his platform year caused him to play in 34 less games than Mr. Jones, their career numbers demonstrate that Mr. Jones has statistically outperformed Mr. Reddick in nearly every offensive category while playing in just six more career games heading into arbitration for the first time. 39 On-Base Percentage measures how often a batter reaches base for any reason other than a fielder s error, fielder s choice, dropped/uncaught third strike, fielder s obstruction, or catcher s interference. 40 Garrett Jones, Baseball-Reference.com, 41 OPS equals a player s On Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage (On Base Percentage, See supra, FN 35; Slugging Percentage = a player s total bases divided by total at bats) 7

10 Career Comparison 44 Player G PA R H 2B BB OBP OPS HR RBI BA Jones Reddick Similar to their respective platform seasons, Jones tops Reddick in hitting for power and hitting for average during their careers. Mr. Jones s OPS (.772), home runs (60), and doubles (87) all exceed Reddick s numbers. Further, Jones s career BA (.254) tops Reddick s (.239). While Jones has 57 more plate appearances, he also has 23 more walks, which has led to a higher on-base percentage (.323 compared to Reddick s.302). B. Tyler Colvin ($2.275 million) Tyler Colvin, an outfielder and first baseman for the Colorado Rockies was a first time arbitration-eligible player following the 2012 season. He avoided arbitration by signing a one-year contract worth $2.275 million $50,000 below the midpoint in this case. While Colvin was a Super Two 45 during his first year of arbitration-eligibility, the CBA does not list this as a factor in arbitration. Platform Year Comparison 46 Player Year G PA R H 2B OBP OPS HR RBI BA Colvin Reddick Mr. Colvin s platform year statistics are significantly higher than Mr. Reddick s: 18 home runs compared to Reddick s 12; 72 RBI compared to Reddick s 56; and a.290 batting average compared to Reddick s.226. In just 11 more plate appearances than 44 Garrett Jones, Baseball-Refernce.com, Josh Reddick, Baseball-Reference.com, Basic Agreement, p. 18, available at 46 Tyler Colvin, Baseball-Reference.com, 8

11 Reddick, Colvin had 35 more hits and 12 more doubles. It was this type of production that led the Rockies to award Colvin a $2.275 million contract. In addition to their platform season statistics, several other factors demonstrate that Reddick should be compensated at a figure less than the $2.275 million Colvin received. Colvin, a former first-round draft pick, has the added versatility of playing centerfield and first base, and the added versatility of batting in every spot in the lineup, which he did during his platform year. 47 Furthermore, while both players have had their bouts with injuries during their brief careers, Colvin s strong platform year came after he missed much of the 2011 season due to injuries, which proved that he had recovered and could still perform at an exceptionally high level. By contrast, Reddick s injury-plagued season and subsequent surgery came during his platform year rendering it unclear whether Reddick can return to his pre-injury form. C. Seth Smith ($2.41) 48 Seth Smith, an outfielder for the Colorado Rockies earned slightly more than the midpoint here, though notably less than Reddick s $2.55 million final offer. Platform Year Comparison 49 Player Year G PA R H 2B OBP OPS HR RBI BA Smith Reddick Smith had superior offensive numbers during his platform year than Reddick. Smith had a higher on-base percentage and a higher OPS. Smith also had more home runs than Reddick and stayed healthy, which allowed him to play in more games. Furthermore, Smith posted a batting average more than 50 points higher than Reddick. 47 Tyler Colvin, Splits, Baseball-Reference.com, 48 Seth Smith, Baseball-Reference.com, 49 Id.; Josh Reddick, Baseball-Reference.com, 9

12 While Smith earned slightly more than the midpoint in this case, his salary was warranted by his significantly better batting average during his platform season and his career, as well as his superior career numbers across the board that can be seen below: Career Comparison 50 Player G PA R H 2B 3B OBP OPS HR RBI BA Smith Reddick D. Summary of Comparable Players Player Platform Year Career Salary Year HR RBI BA HR RBI BA Jones $2.25 Colvin $2.275 Smith $2.41 Reddick ? In comparison to Jones, Colvin, and Smith, Mr. Reddick does not lead any major offensive category during his platform year or for his career. Rather, Reddick actually ranks last in HRs, RBI, and BA during the platform year, and last in BA for his career. VI. CONCLUSION Josh Reddick has been an important contributor to the A s during his two seasons with the Club. The Athletics value his efforts since coming over from the Boston Red Sox in a trade following the 2011 season. But considering the salaries of comparable players as well as Mr. Reddick s inconsistent career performance, his struggles during his platform year, and his injury history, it is clear that Mr. Reddick deserves an arbitration award below the $2.325 million midpoint. 50 Seth Smith, Baseball-Reference.com, Josh Reddick, Baseball-Reference.com, 10