2015 National Baseball Arbitration Competition

Transcription

1 2015 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Lorenzo Cain v Kansas City Royals Submission on Behalf of Kansas City Royals Midpoint: million Submission by Team 28

2 Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision 3 II. Quality of the Player s Contributions to Club During Past Season... 3 III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions.. 4 IV. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects... 6 V. Past Compensation... 8 VI. Comparative Salaries... 8 VII. Recent Performance of the Club VIII. Conclusion

3 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision This brief analyzes the assets and contributions of outfielder Lorenzo Cain ( Mr. Cain ) to be reflected in his 2015 contract with the Kansas City Royals ( the Club or the Royals ). This arbitration hearing is governed by the Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ). The CBA establishes the criteria to be considered in this arbitration hearing. 1 Under the CBA Article VI (E)(10), the criteria include: (1) the quality of the Player s contribution to his Club his club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); (2) the length and consistency of his career contribution; (3) the Player s past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player; (5) the recent performance record of the Club (including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance). 2 Mr. Cain has reached years of MLB service, entitling him to file for first-year arbitration. 3 Mr. Cain is a valued member of this Club and shows great talent and potential. However, the evidence of his inconsistent past performance, as well as many health concerns, demonstrate that Mr. Cain is entitled to a salary below the midpoint of $2.275 million. The Royals respectfully request that this panel find that Mr. Cain is entitled to a 2015 salary arbitration award of $2.1 million. II. Quality of Player s Contribution to Club During Past Season Considering that Mr. Cain was returning from a 2013 season in which he only played 35 games after the All-Star Break due to an oblique strain, this season was the first time in Mr Major League Baseball Collective Bargaining Agreement Basic Agreement, 2 Id. 3 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference, 3

4 Cain s five year career that he was able to play more than 115, or more than approximately 70%, of the regular season. Mr. Cain was able to play most of the 2014 season, and put up remarkably strong numbers. TABLE 1: 2014 Season Statistics 4 Games AVG OBP SLG HR RBI SO Mr. Cain also enjoyed a successful postseason run to the World Series with the Club, and was awarded the American League Championship Series MVP. 5 Mr. Cain also became a defensive star this past season. He committed only 2 errors on the season, and was able to boast a defensive fielding percentage of.994 in innings played in the outfield. 6 Mr. Cain also became a highlight star over the 2014 season, being featured many times for his athletic and acrobatic catches in centerfield. However, despite these defensive numbers, he did not receive a gold-glove nomination for the 2014 season. III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions Despite being marred by injury problems, Mr. Cain s career has shown promise. Mr. Cain is relatively inexperienced at baseball compared to many of his colleagues. Mr. Cain did not even pick up the sport of baseball until his sophomore year of high school. 7 Thus, the length of his entire baseball career is relatively short. In fact, before this season, Mr. Cain had not played more than 115 games at the Major League level. Thus, it is hard to gauge his true potential at the professional level. 4 Lorenzo Cain Stats, MLB.com, =2015&level='MLB' 5 Id. 6 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference, 7 The long, winding road for Lorenzo Cain, Beyond the Box Score, 4

5 Table 4: Career Statistics 8 Year Team Games AVG OBP SLG Error FLD % 2010 MIL KCR KCR KCR KCR Career Over his career, Mr. Cain has proven the ability to be a high caliber defender in the outfield. He has proven that he will commit a low number of errors, as well as post a fielding percentage to place him among the elites in center field. However, beyond this year, Mr. Cain has not proven that he is an elite hitter among those in the league. Mr. Cain s performance on the offensive side has been satisfactory over his career. His career batting average of.279 and on base percentage of.326 are not outstanding numbers, but good enough to prove that he belongs in the Majors. Furthermore, Mr. Cain has not proven that he is able to produce year in and year out the way that he did offensively in In fact, the only other season in which he has played more than half of the season was in 2013, when he posted only a.251 batting average, a career low. Additionally, he has not shown the consistency to stay healthy and play at a major league level. Mr. Cain has also only appeared in an average of 71.6 games per season. The Club would prefer to see more consistent evidence to gauge the return on investment in Mr. Cain. If Mr. Cain can stay healthy and remain on the field, the Club has no doubt that Mr. Cain can succeed in the Majors. However, the Royals would prefer Mr. Cain to prove that he can stay mostly healthy throughout the course of a regular season, and show that he has the ability to put up such remarkable offensive numbers year in and year out. 8 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference, 5

6 IV. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects Mr. Cain s career, especially this past season, has shown promise for the future. However, his extensive injury history has decreased his value despite his impressive skill set. Throughout his career, Mr. Cain has been marred by various injuries, causing him to miss a significant number of games throughout his five-year professional career. TABLE 3: Injury History 9 Date Transaction Days Missed Body Part Injury 4/20/2009 Minors 11 Left Thigh Strain 4/24/2009 Minors 88 Left Knee PCL Spain 4/26/2010 Minors 17 Groin Strain 4/7/2011 Minors 7 Left Groin Strain 4/11/ DL 89 Left Hip Torn hip flexor 9/14/2012 DTD 20 Right Thigh Strain 7/28/2013 DTD 4 Left Groin Strain 8/9/ DL 26 Left Oblique Strain 4/17/ DL 18 Left Groin Strain As can be seen, Mr. Cain has a chronic nature of physical problems. The most reoccurring of these can be seen by the left groin strain. This has seemingly been a reoccurring issue for him, as he injured it in 2010, 2011, 2013, and A groin injury presents a serious problem for a player that plays a position such as center field. Playing in center field requires ballplayers to make abrupt, quick, and long runs over a substantial amount of ground in order to catch fly balls. A reoccurring injury, such as a ground injury, can limit Mr. Cain s full potential in the outfield. Even more serious than the reoccurring groin injury is the torn hip flexor that he suffered in This injury was caused during rehab from the reoccurring groin injury. Mr. Cain suffered the groin injury after crashing into the wall while making a catch. After being placed on 9 Lorenzo Cain, Baseball Prospectus, 6

7 the DL, he was sent on a rehab assignment. During this rehab assignment, Mr. Cain tore his left hip flexor when attempting to run backwards for a fly ball. 10 He was then placed on the 60 day disabled list. To make matters worse, upon return, Mr. Cain then suffered a hamstring injury, causing him to miss the rest of the season. 11 Mr. Cain s serious injuries of a torn hip flexor, as well as his reoccurring left leg injuries, raise concerns about his future health. Mr. Cain will turn 29 at the beginning of the 2015 regular season. This is 2 years older than the average age of the Club. 12 As has been shown by many players in the past, the older a player gets, the tougher it is for him to stay healthy. Mr. Cain s injury history, as well as the age, raises concerns with the Club about his ability to stay healthy. The Royals do not doubt that Mr. Cain is capable of becoming one of the elite center fielders in the game today. His highlight reel catches, 2013 gold glove nomination, and ALCS MVP award demonstrate his potential. 13 However, due to his injury history seen in Table 3, the Club has concern about his ability to stay on the field for 162 games. Those highlight reel catches have proven to be hazardous, as can be seen by the torn hip flexor that he suffered crashing into a wall to make a catch. Now entering his sixth season as a professional baseball player in the MLB, and coming off a long season in which Mr. Cain played 133 games, his health will be tested more now than it ever has. Mr. Cain did not even pick up the sport of baseball until his sophomore year of high school. 14 Thus, Mr. Cain is still considered to be a fairly raw talent, and his growth depends significantly on his ability to stay healthy and be on the field. The Club has all the faith in the 10 Cain getting another look at torn hip flexor, MLB.com, 11 Lorenzo Cain expected to miss rest of season with hamstring injury, NBC Sports, 12 Major League Rosters, ESPN, 13 Welcome to Stardom, Lorenzo Cain, FanGraphs, 14 The long, winding road for Lorenzo Cain, Beyond the Box Score, 7

8 world that Mr. Cain will continue to grow and become a very talented center fielder. However, the injury history remains a concern and Mr. Cain needs to prove that he can stay consistently healthy and contribute on the field for more than just one season. V. Past Compensation Over the past three years, Mr. Cain s salary has been approximately in line with the league minimum salary, which was raised from $500,000 to $507,500 in Table 4: Cain s Salary 16 Year Salary MLST 2012 $480, $503, $546, VI. Comparative Salaries Based on the salaries of statistically comparable first-time arbitration eligible outfielders, the Club s offer of $2.1 million accurately reflects his expected market value and contribution to the Royals. Table 5: Comparative Statistics between Lorenzo Cain and Gerard Parra 17 AVG OBP SLG SB Errors FLD % Lorenzo Cain (MLST: 3.074) Career Platform Gerardo Parra (MLST: 3.145) Midpoint: 2.4 million Salary: $2.350 million Career Platform Gerardo Parra is a similar player to Lorenzo Cain. While Mr. Cain had a better platform season than Parra, their career numbers are roughly equivalent. Gerardo Parra, in fact, had a 15 MLB minimum salary raises by $7,500, ESPN, 16 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference, 17 Gerardo Parra Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference, 8

9 more consistent career than Mr. Cain has to this point. Parra had played consistently for approximately three years before becoming first-time arbitration eligible. Parra never played for less than 120 games in his first three years. 18 Additionally, Parra, similar to Mr. Cain, won various awards for his play in his career, including a gold-glove award in Finally, Parra was eligible for arbitration when he was only 25, 3 years younger than Mr. Cain. The difference in age gave the Diamondbacks more hope for long-term potential and growth, something that Mr. Cain is limited by at 28 years old. Considering the similarities in their careers up to the 3-year mark, Mr. Parra agreed to a salary of $2.350 million, slightly below the midpoint. A comparison of the two players careers indicate that a $2.1 million salary is an appropriate amount for a player putting up these career statistics. Table 6: Comparative Platform Statistics between Lorenzo Cain and Emilio Bonifacio 19 AVG OBP SLG SB Errors FLD % Lorenzo Cain (MLST: 3.074) Career Platform Emilio Bonifacio (MLST: 3.066) Awarded Salary: $2.2 million Career Platform Although Parra is an apt comparison in regards to career statistics, Emilio Bonifacio is the best comparison to Mr. Cain s platform year. Following his first year of eligibility for arbitration, Bonifacio hit a team-high.296 with 40 steals and, when put in the outfield, played phenomenal defense with a fielding percentage of.991. Upon the conclusion of the 2011 season, Bonifacio took the arbitration process all the way to a hearing. At the time, Bonifacio was earning approximately $502,000. This was in line with 18 Id. 19 Emilio Bonifacio Statistics and History, Baseball-Reference, 9

10 the league average, and extremely similar Mr. Cain s current salary. At the arbitration hearing, Bonifacio argued that he should be awarded $2.2 million, and the Marlins asked for $1.95 million. Bonifacio, in fact, won the arbitration to be awarded $2.2 million. 20 This is significant, as the similar platform season garnered Bonifacio only $.1 million more than what the Club is offering to pay Mr. Cain. In contrast, for a similar season, Mr. Cain is asking for approximately $1.15 million more than Bonifacio s awarded $2.2 million salary. The two players are quite similar in their statistical achievements. However, Bonifacio, up to that point in his career, had yet to suffer any major injuries. While he missed a handful of games in 2010, he was able to play in 152 games for the Miami Marlins in his platform 2011 season. It took Bonifacio only three seasons to get to the point that Mr. Cain got to in 5 seasons. In his platform season, Bonifacio played in more games than Mr. Cain has every played in one season, and Mr. Cain had the benefit of adding playoff games to his 2014 season total. The two outfielders put up very similar statistical lines in their platform years. In fact, the statistical line is so similar, that it shows that Mr. Cain has yet to earn the $3.35 million that he is requesting. A comparison of the two players careers indicate that a $2.1 million salary is an appropriate amount VII. Recent Performance of the Club In 2014, the Club had one of the most memorable seasons in franchise history. The Royals finished 89-73, just 1.0 game behind the American League Central Division winners, the Detroit Tigers Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins finish hearing, ESPN, 21 Standings, MLB.com, 10

11 As such, the Club entered the postseason for the first time in 29 years to play in a one game playoff with the Oakland Athletics. The game did not anyone down, as the Royals won in 9-8 in a 12-inning contest that ended on a walk-off single. 22 The Club continued their dramatic postseason run, sweeping the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Baltimore Orioles to win the ALDS and ALCS, respectively. This earned the Club their first World Series berth since The Club entered the World Series as a huge underdog against the San Francisco Giants. However, the team showed their grit, and took the Giants to seven games. Unfortunately, the Club lost in game 7, but the loss did not detract from one of the Club s most successful season in franchise history. The Club is certain that the contributions and sacrifices that the members of this Club made were the driving force behind the successful 2014 campaign. Mr. Cain was, undoubtedly, one of the most positive contributors this season. The Royals have accumulated a great deal of young talent, and we strongly believe that we can achieve new heights next season. We firmly believe that Mr. Cain, as was shown in his 2014 campaign and incredible post-season success, will be an important factor moving forward. VIII. Conclusion In his career, especially this past regular and post-season, Lorenzo Cain has proven that he has the ability to be a successful major league ballplayer. The Royals, while appreciative of his past contributions, remain concerned at Mr. Cain s ability to maintain his achievements from Mr. Cain has not proven that he is able to produce year in and year out the way that he did offensively in The only other season in which he has played more than half of the season was in 2013, when he posted only a.251 batting average, a career low. Furthermore, the Club 22 The Royals waited 29 years for a playoff game. It was worth it, USA Today Sports, 23 Postseason Results, MLB.com, 11

12 has concerns about his ability to stay on the field. Mr. Cain s serious injuries of a torn hip flexor, as well as his reoccurring left leg injuries, raises concerns with The Club about his ability to stay healthy. 12