2013 National Baseball Arbitration Competition

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1 2013 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Dexter Fowler v. Colorado Rockies Submission on behalf of the Colorado Rockies Midpoint: $4.3 million Submission by: Team 27

2 Table of Contents: I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision...3 II. Quality of Fowler s Contributions to the Rockies in III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions...4 IV. Past Compensation...7 V. Comparative Baseball Salaries...7 VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects...11 VII. Recent Performance of Colorado Rockies...11 VIII. Conclusion

3 I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision This brief analyzes the contributions of Rockies centerfielder Dexter Fowler for a hearing before an arbitration panel, governed by the Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ). The following criteria shall be analyzed under the CBA: (1) the quality of the player s contributions to the Rockies during the past season, which include but are not limited to overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal; (2) the length and consistency of the player s career contributions; (3) the player s past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental defects on behalf of the player; and (6) the recent performance of the Rockies. 1 Fowler has accumulated years of MLB service time, and has been arbitration eligible once before as a Super Two. Fowler has now been in the Rockies organization since his signing in 2004 and his talents and contributions are much appreciated. Fowler had a productive 2012 season and was a bright spot for the Rockies in a losing campaign. Despite this, the club is concerned with Fowler s consistency along with his slight propensity for injury. Evidence will demonstrate that Fowler is entitled to a figure below the midpoint amount of $4.3 million established by his offer and that of the Rockies. The Rockies respectfully ask the arbitration panel to award Fowler a salary of $4.0 million for the 2013 season. II. Quality of Fowler s Contributions to the Rockies in 2012 Despite a losing team record, in 2012 Fowler put together his strongest season as a major leaguer. During this year, Fowler produced career bests in several categories. Table 1 2 : 2012 Statistics (* = Career Highs) G R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OPS 3 143* * * 68* *.863* 1 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement. 2 Dexter Fowler Stats Summary, MLB &level='MLB' 3 On-base plus slugging percentages. 3

4 Fowler s on-base percentage of.389 ranked 7 th in the league, while his seven triples were good enough for 4th in the league. Additionally, Fowler s batting average of.300 ranked 26th in the league (14th in the NL), whereas his 13 homeruns placed him 17th among all MLB centerfielders. 4 Overall, the Rockies were pleased with Fowler s contributions during the team s difficult 2012 season. Fowler s 2012 season continued to show some of the inconsistencies that he has displayed throughout his career with the Rockies. Offensively, Fowler s post All-Star break OPS dropped from.937 down to.772. This was largely because Fowler hit ten of his thirteen homeruns during the first half of the season, going on to hit only three more homeruns the entire second half of the year. 5 Moreover, Fowler struck out at a concerning rate of 24.2% per plate appearance, ranking 21st amongst all players. 6 Defensively, Fowler s.978 fielding percentage ranked dead last amongst qualifying centerfielders, while his six errors ranked as the second highest amongst MLB s centerfielders. 7 Finally, Fowler s health prevented him from playing a full season as he failed to play in 19 games, receiving no at-bats during the Rockies last 11 games due to a wrist injury. 8 III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions Despite having a solid 2012season, because of lulls in offensive consistency, there is good reason to believe that the production which Fowler displayed during the year will likely not be repeated in Since signing out of high school in 2004, Fowler has ascended steadily through the Rockies organization. In 2008, Fowler was called up by the Rockies to make his 4 MLB Stat Leaders &sortColumn=hr&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0 5 Dexter Fowler Stats Summary, MLB. 6 FanGraphs Stat Leaders. on1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d 7 MLB Stat Leaders. MLB.com 8 CBSSports.com. 4

5 major league debut, playing in 13 games. 9 Since then, Fowler has spent a majority of his baseball career playing center field for the Rockies at the major league level, even finishing eighth in the 2009 Rookie of the Year voting. 10 Table 2: Dexter Fowler Career Offensive Statistics Season Games Runs Hits 2B+3B 11 HR RBI SB AVG. OPS Fowler also played a role in the 2009 postseason, where he played in four games NLDS games against the Phillies, earning three hits in 14 overall at-bats. 12 The Rockies have been impressed by the baseball tools that Fowler has shown at different times during his professional career. Fowler s 2012 batting average of.300 was a great improvement over his previous, three-plus major league seasons. Also, with the exception of 2010, Fowler has increased his number of hits and his OPS each year. However, periods of low offensive production have caused him to see significant time in the minor leagues in efforts to resolve such issues, though some of these minor league appearances can be attributed to injury rehab assignments. For instance, in 2010, Fowler played in 27 games for the Rockies Triple-A affiliate, while also playing in 24 games for that same affiliate during the 2011 season. Problems with offensive consistency can be attributed to Fowler s propensity to strike out. Over the last four seasons, with the exception of 2010, Fowler s strike-out per plate appearance percentage has steadily increased. Each of these years, Fowler has been among the top 30 players in the NL in this category. 9 Dexter Fowler Stats Summary, MLB. 10 Baseball-Reference Doubles plus Triples 12 Baseball Reference Dexter Fowler 5

6 Table 3 13 : Career Strikeout Per Plate Appearance Percentage (NL rank) Year K% (DNQ) (13 th ) (27 th ) (9 th ) (11 th ) Defensively, the Rockies love Fowler s ability to use his long stride to cover the spacious outfield of Coors Field. In 2009, Fowler committed four errors for a.984 fielding percentage while also chipping in with four outfield assists. In 2010, Fowler produced the type of Gold Glove defense they envisioned when signing him, committing only one error on his way to a MLB top five.984 fielding percentage. However, the 2011 and 2012 seasons came with a decrease in defensive performance by Fowler, committing eight errors in 2011 for.975 fielding percentage and six more in 2012, coming in with a.978 fielding percentage. Those totals were good for 62nd and 60th, amongst MLB outfielders during those years. 14 Overall, the club has seen glimpses of the Dexter Fowler that they hoped they would have when signing him in The Rockies greatly appreciate the special skills that Fowler possesses, which have been more evident recently. The relatively small sample size, however, does not give the club the confidence required to invest in Fowler for an amount more than necessary at this time. The Rockies would rather take into account Fowler s prior 405 major league games and his earlier 1374 major league at-bats, 15 rather than focusing solely on his impressive 2012 season. 13 FanGraphs Dexter Fowler Stats Summary, MLB 15 Number of Fowler s MLB games and at-bats from the seasons. Dexter Fowler Stats Summary, MLB. 6

7 IV. Past Compensation Up until last season, Fowler was paid at or near the league minimum each year, largely due to his low MLB service time, and some uncertainty as to whether he would reach his great potential. Overall, Fowler has earned $3,581,000 during his time with Rockies. Table 4 16 : Past Salaries Year Salary 2009 $401, $406, $424, $2,350,000 V. Comparative Baseball Salaries Because Fowler s platform season is much more impressive than his career numbers, comparisons to similar players will display that Fowler s 2013 value is below the $4.3 million midpoint and therefore should be awarded $4.0 million by this arbitration panel. a. Angel Pagan ($3.5 Million in 2011) Comparing Fowler to Angel Pagan, another NL centerfielder, demonstrates that Fowler s value is below the $4.3 million dollar midpoint. Pagan entered his 2011 arbitration eligible year earning a previous salary of $1.45 million, nearly a million dollars below the 2012 salary of Fowler. Pagan s 2010 salary was increased by $2.05 million, raising his 2011 salary to $3.45 million, well below the $4.3 million midpoint at contest here. 17 Further, 2011 was Pagan s third time being arbitration eligible, while this is Fowler s second, making this comparison somewhat imperfect. However, both switch-hitters are comparable players, and their statistics for each of the comparative platform years are very similar. Because their career numbers are similar, while their platform years are even more comparable, Fowler, though appreciated by the Rockies, is not worth $1.1 million more than a player nearly identical to himself. 16 Baseball Reference. Dexter Fowler s salaries. 17 Id. Angel Pagan 7

8 Table 5 18 : Comparative Offensive Statistics between Fowler and Angel Pagan Platform Career MLS G R H HR RBI SB AVG OPS G R H HR RBI SO SB AVG D.F A.P Career At the conclusion of each of the compared platform seasons, both players had compiled similar career stats. Fowler, although slightly younger, had played in 130 more games than Pagan, who had compiled more service time. Fowler has scored more runs, but has also struck out 252 more times than Pagan (483 to 231). At the time, Pagan owned a better career BA, but he nearly matched Fowler in homeruns, RBI, and stolen bases in almost a whole season s worth of games less. 19 Further, each player enjoys better success from one side of the plate than the other, as Pagan s right handed batting average is about thirty points lower than his left-handed average. Similarly, Fowler s left-handed average is about thirty points lower than his righthanded average. 20 Defensively, Pagan holds a slight edge in fielding percentage,.984 to.983. Platform Season Although each platform season is very similar, Pagan s stats are better in several ways for a player whose salary ended up being $1.0 million less than what Fowler is asking for. Pagan played in eight more games than Fowler, compiling more runs (80 to 72), more hits (168 to 136), more stolen bases (37 to 12), while striking out 31 less times than Fowler. Fowler edged out Pagan in BA, HR, and OPS, however, Pagan s power numbers remained consistent throughout the year, unlike Fowler, nearly matching his first-half HR total with five after the All-Star break MLB Stats Summary. Fowler & Pagan 19 Id. 20 Baseball-Reference.com; Career Split Stats for Angel Pagan and Dexter Fowler. 21 MLB.com. Stats summary: Pagan & Fowler. 8

9 As demonstrated, Pagan s numbers from his platform season are in many ways much better than those of Fowler s platform season, while their career numbers are comparable. Thus, Fowler s value should be found to be below the midpoint here and closer to Pagan s 2011 salary of $3.5 million. b. Adam Jones ($3.25 million in 2011) A comparison between Adam Jones and Fowler is somewhat flawed because this is Fowler s second time being arbitration eligible while 2011 was Jones first time. However, the similarities in age, service time, position, and statistics are powerful for the current purpose. Table 6 22 : Comparative Offensive Statistics between Fowler and Adam Jones Platform Career MLS G R H HR RBI SB AVG OPS G R H HR RBI SO SB AVG D.F A. J Career Analyzing the two centerfielder s careers at the time of comparable arbitration points shows many similarities. Jones was about a year younger than Fowler at the time, being approximately 7 months older than Fowler is now. Further, Fowler has accumulated slightly more service time than Jones had after his 2010 season (3.168 to 3.139), 23 while also playing in 75 more games. However, the comparison shows that Jones had 22 more career homeruns, 40 more RBI, a slightly higher batting average than Fowler currently does, while striking out 120 less times. On the other hand, Fowler edges out Jones in hits (497 to 457), runs (305 to 242), and stolen bases. Defensively, Jones bests Fowler in fielding percentage,.984 to.983. Platform The platform seasons of Fowler and Jones are very similar, but here, Jones beats him out. Jones played in six more major league games than Fowler, scoring more runs (76 to 72), 22 MLB.com. Stats Summary: Fowler and Adam Jones 23 BizOfBaseball.com. Lists of Arbitration eligible players. 9

10 gathering 29 more hits (165 to 136), struck out nine less times, hit six more homeruns (19 to 13), and had 16 more RBI (69 to 53). Fowler managed to steal 5 more bases, bested Jones in batting average (.300 to.284), and also had an OPS nearly 100 points higher than Jones (.863 to.767). 24 Ultimately, because their platform and career numbers are so similar, but with Jones still holding the edge in several key categories, Fowler is not entitled to a salary $1.35 million higher than that awarded to Jones at such a comparable time in their careers. c. Alex Rios ($4.85 million in 2008) Although requiring a further look back, comparing Fowler to Alex Rios as of 2008, might be the best player comparison yet. Like Fowler, Rios was a centerfielder entering his second time as arbitration eligible, had appeared in nearly an identical amount of games (548 to 546), had similar salary during his platform season ($2.535 million to Fowler s $2.350 million), and was about the same age, Table 7 26 : Comparative Offensive Statistics between Fowler and Alex Rios Platform Career MLS G R H HR RBI SB AVG OPS G R H HR RBI SO SB AVG D.F A.R Career The career numbers of Fowler compared to those of Rios are very similar. However, at the time, Rios had better numbers in nearly every major category. Rios scored more runs (308 to 305), had 78 more hits, belted 24 more homeruns, knocked in 86 more runs, struck out over a hundred times less, and owned a batting average that was nine points higher than what Fowler currently owns (.280 to.271). Fowler, does however barely edge out Rios in games played, and stolen bases. Importantly, the nearly identical amount of service time between the two players (Fowler: 3.168; Rios: 3.130) makes the comparison that much more persuasive. 24 MLB.com Stats summary: Jones and Fowler. 25 Baseball Prospectus. Alex Rios & Dexter Fowler. 26 MLB.com Stats summary. Fowler and Alex Rios. 10

11 Platform Season The comparison of Fowler s platform season to that of Rios shows an important gap between the players. During his 2007 platform season, Rios, an All-Star that year, hit 11 more homeruns than Fowler, drove in 32 more runs, stole 5 more bases, and scored 42 more runs, while playing in 18 more games. All in all, Rios, who participated in the homerun derby that year, had a platform season that greatly overshadows the fine 2012 season that Fowler just produced. 27 So, after a thorough analysis of the career and platform seasons of Alex Rios and Fowler, it becomes evident that Fowler s 2013 value should not be near to the $4.835 million salary that was given to Rios after his second time being arbitration eligible. The fact that Rios greatly out produced the less durable Fowler at a similar career point, coupled with an outstanding platform season, shows that Fowler s 2013 salary should be valued well below Rios s 2008 salary, and below the current midpoint of $4.3 million. VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects For the most part, Fowler s injury history has been consistent with the normal wear and tear that accompanies a 162- game season. In his three-plus years at the big league level, Fowler has been day-to-day several times with common baseball injuries (soreness, contusions, etc.,) but Fowler has only been placed on the 15-day disabled list twice during this time - once in August, 2009 with a bruised knee, and again in June, 2011 with a strained abdomen. 28 However, as noted above, Fowler also missed significant time in 2012 with a wrist injury. VII. Recent Performance of the Colorado Rockies The Colorado Rockies are currently in the midst of a rebuilding process. Although filled with talent, the club is still working to build or acquire the remaining pieces necessary to become a mainstay in the playoff picture. The 2011 and 2012 seasons were not kind to the Rockies, who 27 MLB.com. Stats summary: Dexter Fowler and Alex Rios. 28 Dexter Fowler. Baseball Prospectus. 11

12 finished second-to-last in the NL West in 2011 and in last place in Though, many 2012 late season losses can be attributed to the protective pitch count that was placed on the Rockies bright young pitching prospects. Looking back further, the Rockies have not had a winning season since 2010 when they finished in 3rd place at in the ever-competitive NL West. In 2009, they finished with a record of 92-70, reaching the playoffs as the NL wildcard team, only to lose to Philadelphia in the opening round. 29 Dexter Fowler is a player who has been one of the bright spots for the Rockies over the past few years, especially in 2012, and some of the Rockies recent, yet limited success can be attributed to certain contributions by Fowler. VIII. Conclusion With the addition of a very productive 2012 season, Dexter Fowler has put together decent career numbers up to this point. He has been a catalyst at the top of the Rockies lineup for a period of a little over three years, while covering the cavernous outfield of Coors Field. Fowler s defensive and offensive contributions have been, and will continue to be, valued by the Rockies. However, comparing Fowler to similarly situated players shows that Fowler s 2013 value is below the midpoint of $4.3 million. Angel Pagan, Adam Jones, and Alex Rios, outperformed Fowler in several career and platform season stat categories, while only Rios, who outperformed Fowler by the most, was given a salary above the $4.3 million midpoint. Specifically, Fowler s accomplishments and statistics are very similar to two players who were paid far less than the midpoint of $4.3 million (Pagan and Jones), and well below those of Alex Rios, who was only paid about $200,000 more than the salary Fowler is pursuing. Thus, we ask the arbitration panel to find accordingly and award Fowler a 2013 salary of $4.0 million. 29 MLB.com. Standings

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