Estimating Salmon Escapement across the Snake River basin: a novel approach using PIT tags
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1 University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage 2017 Jun 21st, 2:30 PM - 2:50 PM Estimating Salmon Escapement across the Snake River basin: a novel approach using PIT tags Kevin See QCI Chris Beasley QCI Ryan Kinzer QCI Rick Orme QCI Mike Ackerman QCI Follow this and additional works at: See, Kevin; Beasley, Chris; Kinzer, Ryan; Orme, Rick; and Ackerman, Mike, "Estimating Salmon Escapement across the Snake River basin: a novel approach using PIT tags" (2017). International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Fish Passage Community at UMass Amherst at ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Conference on Engineering and Ecohydrology for Fish Passage by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact scholarworks@library.umass.edu.
2 Estimating Salmon Escapement across the Snake River basin: a novel approach using PIT tags Fish Passage Conference June 2017 Presenter: Kevin See Co-authors: Chris Beasley, Ryan Kinzer, Rick Orme, Mike Ackerman
3 Motivation
4 Current Methods Redd Counts Weirs
5 Objective Estimate spring/summer Chinook and steelhead escapement to major tributaries above Lower Granite Dam with PIT tag data
6 Modeling Plan Total Wild Escapement Model Total Wild Escapement Tributary Escapement Estimates Hierarchical Patch-Occupancy Model Movement Probabilities
7
8
9 Lower Granite Dam
10
11
12 Total Escapement Past Lower Granite Dam How many are there?
13 Total Escapement Over LGD
14 Total Escapement Over LGD Window Counts PIT Tags Fish Trap
15 Total Escapement Over LGD Window Counts Night Rate PIT Tags Trap Rate Fish Trap
16 Total Escapement Over LGD Window Counts Night Rate PIT Tags Total Escapement Trap Rate Fish Trap
17 Total Escapement Over LGD Window Counts Re-ascension Rate Night Rate PIT Tags Total Escapement Trap Rate Fish Trap Origin Prop.
18 Total Escapement Over LGD Window Counts Re-ascension Rate Night Rate PIT Tags Trap Rate Total Escapement Unique Wild, Hatchery, HNC Escapement Fish Trap Origin Prop.
19 Daytime Fish Including Night Passage Proportion Wild Escapement Escapement Account for Reascension Escapement Escapement Fish Type Daytime Fish Total Fish Total Wild Fish Unique Wild Fish
20 Example Results
21 Hierarchical Patch- Occupancy Model Where do they go?
22 Fish are PIT tagged And re-sighted upstream
23
24 Model Double Arrays Weir / Single Array
25 Model Pieces E B C D A
26 Model Pieces Movement Probabilities (Ψ) E B C D A
27 Model Pieces Movement Probabilities (Ψ) E B C D A A A A C B C D E A
28 Model Pieces E B C D Movement Probabilities (Ψ) A B A C A D A C E A E = (A C) (C E) A
29 Model Pieces Movement Probabilities (Ψ) E A A A A B C D B C D C E A E = (A C) (C E) A Detection Probabilities (p)
30 Model Pieces Movement Probabilities (Ψ) E A A A A B C D B C D C E A E = (A C) (C E) A Detection Probabilities (p) Estimate: A, B, C, E Fixed: D
31 Model Benefits Initial branches have time-varying probabilities Tagged fish may not be representative of run at large Trap rate changes / shut down Differential run timing Escapement estimates on various spatial scales MPG Population Tributary Incorporates all uncertainty Potentially cost-effective compared to weirs and redd counts
32 Time-varying Movement Probability
33
34
35
36 Validation
37 Comparison with Weirs Chinook Chinook Chinook Chinook Catherine Creek Weir East Fork Salmon River Weir Imnaha River Weir Johnson Creek Weir Chinook Chinook Chinook Chinook Pahsimeroi Weir Sawtooth Weir South Fork Salmon River Weir Yankee Fork Weir Steelhead Asotin Creek Weir Steelhead Big Bear Creek Weir Steelhead East Fork Potlatch River Weir Steelhead Fish Creek Weir Estimate Type Hand Scan In Stream Array Ladder Antenna M/R + Redd Expansion Mark Recapture Method PIT Weir Steelhead Steelhead Joseph Creek Weir Little Bear Creek Weir
38 Comparison with Weirs Chinook Steelhead 3000 R 2 = 0.66 R 2 = Weir Mark Recapture PIT tag based
39 Conclusions
40 Take home messages This works! Accurate estimate of total escapement, with uncertainty Match up well with independent estimates Movements incorporate differential run timing Available in many places with no alternative method
41 Acknowledgements
42 Questions?
43
44 Comparison with Redds Chinook Chinook Chinook Chinook Big Creek East Fork South Fork Salmon Rive Imnaha River mainstem Lemhi River Estimate Type DIDSON + Redd Expansion Chinook Chinook Chinook Chinook In Stream Array Secesh River South Fork Salmon River mainstem Valley Creek Yankee Fork M/R + Redd Expansion MPE Annual Steelhead Asotin Creek Steelhead Joseph Creek MPE Static Method Probabilistic SPI Annual SPI Static PIT Redd Weir
45 Comparison with Redds Chinook Steelhead 4000 R 2 = R 2 = Redd based PIT tag based
46 PENAWC LOOH/LOOKGC FISHTRP RAPH/RPDTRP TENMC2 ALPOWC Main Branch Diagram Potlatch R. (JUL) SF Clearwater (SC1) Lochsa R. (LRL) LGD Tucannon R. (LTR) ALMOTC Asotin Cr. (ACM) U. Grande Ronde (UGR) Wallowa R. (WR1) Lapwai Cr. (LAP) Lolo Cr. (LC1) NF Salmon R. (NFS) Clear Cr. (CLC) Lemhi R. (LLR) Selway R. (SW1) Joseph Cr. (JOC) U. Salmon R. (USE) Imnaha R. (IR1) Cow Cr. (COC) SF Salmon R. (SFG) Big Cr. (TAY) Carmen Cr. (CRC)
47 Salmon Branch Diagram AGC HBC NF Salmon R. (NFS) Carmen Cr. (CRC) KEN LLS SF Salmon R. (SFG) ZEN KRS ESS Big Cr. (TAY) U. Salmon R. (USE) Lemhi R. (LLR) HYC LRW WPC BHC BTL LCL LB8 LBS BTM BTU STR MCCA JOHNSC USI CAC 18M VC2 YFK STL SAWT Salmon East Fork PAHH HEC VC1 YANKFK CEY SALEFT
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