World supply and demand of tilapia

Transcription

1 World supply and demand of tilapia by Helga Josupeit FAO Rome, October 2010 World tilapia production World tilapia production has been booming during the last decade, with output doubling from tonnes in 1990 to 1.6 million tonnes in 1999 and to 3.5 million tonnes in Fives years ago, I tried to make an estimate on the potential growth of tilapia production by the year 2010, and then 2.5 million tonnes seemed to be appropriate. This level was already reached in 2005! Back in 2007, again I tried on estimate for 2010, of 3.5 million tonnes, which was reached in With this positive experience, I million tonnes World tilapia production capture aquaculture Source FISHSTAT+ will try again in the end of this presentation to estimate future production, by the year This graph shows very clearly that aquaculture was the main responsible for the increase, while capture fisheries of tilapia stayed more or less stable over the years, at tonnes. China is by far the main tilapia producing country, with 1.1 million tonnes production in The Chinese production declined in 2008 due to severe winter conditions which influenced the yield. In 2010, again production is expected to decline due to the same problem. Egypt reported an impressive increase between 2007 and Production in Indonesia and the Philippines, too, increased significantly during the past decade to over tonnes each. In these three countries, tilapia production is mainly feeding the domestic market. Asia represents about three quarter of world tilapia production. China alone produces 1.2 million, while the rest of Asia contributes 0.9 million tonnes. Africa, mainly Egypt, is important with tonnes of cultured tilapia production. Latin America only accounts for tonnes. Total tilapia production is mainly Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). All new countries entering tilapia production concentrate on this species, which is easy to grow. In 2008, about three quarters of world tilapia production were Nile tilapia.

2 Aquaculture production (2000 versus 2008, by region, in tonnes) This graph shows that tilapia aquaculture production increased strongly in just 8 years, and in all regions, no region excluded. Surprisingly, the strongest increase was noticed in Asia, excluding China. In this area, the production went up from tonnes in 2000 to tonnes. This region will contribute for most of the increase also in the coming years. Aquaculture production Strong growth was also reported from Central America where production grew from tonnes to over tonnes. South America reported doubling of production to reach tonnes in Africa, too, increased its production by more than 100% to tonnes. World exports Trade flow, China 2009 (in tonnes) Total Chinese tilapia exports: tonnes China is the main supplier of tilapia to the international market with tonnes in Out of this amount, some tonnes went to the USA and about tonnes to the EU market. In addition China exported tonnes to Mexico and tonnes to Russia. Africa, mainly Egypt and Côte d Ivoire, is an important importer of tilapia from China, tonnes in Israel is also quite important with tonnes.

3 Chinese tilapia exports...jan-dec......jan-jun (1000 tonnes) USA Mexico Russia Israel Germany Hong Kong Belgium Puerto Rico Dominican Rep Canada Others Total Source: Chinese exports statistics/globefish/infoyu In 2009, Taiwan (Province of China) sent tonnes of tilapia to the USA and nothing to the EU. Other Asian countries contributed with tonnes going to the US market and tonnes to the EU market. Finally Central America exported about tonnes, all to the US market, and almost all in fresh fillet form, while 9300 tonnes of this product were shipped from South America mainly Ecuador to the same market. Almost no tilapia goes from Latin America to Europe. The overall supply from countries other than China can be estimated at only tonnes product weight or about tonnes liveweight equivalent. It becomes evident that China dominates the market, representing alone about 90% of total supply. It becomes thus apparent that the increased production in the Philippines and Indonesia is mainly consumed in the domestic market. Trade flow estimates comparison (in tonnes) USA, Canada and Mexico (Russia + EU) This graph summarizes the findings: while Chinese exports to the Americas increased by 70% between 2006 and 2009, and experienced a huge increase (more than 4 times) with EU and Russia, the picture is rather gloomy for other partners: Tilapia exports from other Asian countries increased somehow to the US market, and doubled to the EU market, albeit still very small. For Central America, tilapia exports stayed stable. But South America and Taiwan Province of China

4 showed heavy losses in their US market. The African and Taiwanese Province of China exports of tilapia to the EU market practically disappeared during the years under survey. As a result of the strong demand, imports of tilapia into the USA again hit a new record in the first six months of Some tonnes of tilapia were imported, 16% more than during the corresponding 2009 period. The trend already observed during the past two years continued, with frozen fillet imports growing strongly, while whole frozen and fresh fillets are stable. Imports Tilapia: USA...Jan-Dec (1000 tonnes)...jan-jun... China Indonesia Taiwan PC Ecuador Thailand Honduras Costa Rica Others Total Source: GLOBEFISH Ecuador continues to be the main exporter of fresh tilapia fillets to the US market, accounting for 30% of total supply. Honduras is limping behind. Costa Rica has recovered from the survival of fingerlings problems, experienced in late The country shipped tonnes in the first six months of 2010, 10% more than in the same period of Brazilian exports of fresh tilapia fillets declined sharply, as all tilapia companies in the country prefer the domestic market, due to the strong Brazilian currency, which makes exports less attractive. However, fresh tilapia fillets are rather a niche market now, with very high prices. The real market setter is frozen tilapia fillets, mainly from China. The growth of Chinese products on the US market is incredible. In the first half of 2010, exports of frozen tilapia fillets from China to the US market reached tonnes, 28% more than in the same period of last year. The country is thus dominating the frozen tilapia fillet market with a 90% share. All other players are marginal.

5 Due the overall good demand, the massive imports Frozen tilapia fillets in the US were accompanied by increasing prices of both fresh wholesale market (US$/lb) and frozen tilapia fillets. Frozen fillet prices were very 3 high in the end of 2008, declined sharply in 2009, when Chinese 2.4 production was 2.2 Fresh strong, and have tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market (US$/lb) started to move upwards since J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10 early 2010, when negative 3.4 forecasts for production in China became apparent. 3.2 Fresh tilapia fillets, too, experienced a sharp decline in 3 J-97 J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10 late 2009, but seem to have recovered somewhat in recent months. Africa and South East Asia are the most important consumers of tilapia with tonnes each. China follows with about tonnes of its tilapia production which remain in the country. North America consumes about tonnes of tilapia per year. Central America accounts for tonnes, with about one third coming from imports. Russia consumes about tonnes, while EU is still quite unimportant with some tonnes only. Israel, Caribbean and Australia consume very small quantities of tilapia. Summarizing the major past supply trends give the following picture: In the USA imports are growing, demand is very good and all supply are coming from imports. The popularity of this fish in the USA remained unaffected during the economic recession though overall consumption of fishery products fell by 1.25% in For tilapia, however, consumption increased slightly. Tilapia is the second most popular fish in US retail stores, behind salmon, and the 5th most popular fishery product overall. In Central America, especially Mexico, the domestic production is stagnant, and supply from imports is growing. At present, one third of the tilapia consumed in Central America is coming from imports. In South America, production is growing, especially in Brazil. However, exports are declining as strong domestic currencies and high prices make the domestic market more attractive than the export market. Supply in the EU is still limited, however supply is growing. In Africa and South East Asia, tilapia production is growing, but almost all the product stays in the countries, with some regional trade. More than half of the Chinese production is going to export. After this very successful exercise during the past years, I will now again try to forecast the potential supply in coming years. The first scenario is with no further growth in China, with a production stable at the present 1.1. to 1.2 million tonnes, depending on the winter. In this scenario, all other producing countries still increase their production. With this premises, the

6 world production would reach 3.7 million tonnes in 2010 and 4.6 million tonnes in 2015, probably stabilizing around this figure. The second scenario shows a further increase of Chinese production, but at steadily slowing down level. Under this scenario, the production would be 3.9 million tonnes in 2010, and somewhere around 5 million tonnes in 2015, again stabilizing around this figure. From these scenario, it becomes apparent that Chinese production, which is mainly export oriented, will stabilize, which means stable supply also to USA, Russia and EU. More supply will reach countries such as Brazil, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, where prices are higher than the ones offered by importing countries. Trade relatively unimportant, but it has been expanding strongly during the past five years. Total world trade can be estimated at tonnes, which is triple the figure of only five years ago. China is by far the main exporter with more then 80% of total supply, while in the early 2000s it was Taiwan Province of China. There is no doubt that tilapia supply will continue to expand in coming years. Further increases can be expected from China, but mainly directed to US market. It is likely that the presence of tilapia will expand also in Europe. More value added tilapia production is likely in developing countries, including fish fingers. We will see more foreign investment in tilapia farms in developing countries, targeting mainly foreign markets. Prices are likely to recover from present low level, in view of overall increasing food prices and due to higher feed and transport costs. There is no doubt that tilapia supply will continue to expand in coming years. Further increases can be expected from China, but mainly directed to US market. It is likely that the presence of tilapia will expand also in Europe. More value added tilapia production is likely in developing countries, including fish fingers. We will see more foreign investment in tilapia farms in developing countries, targeting mainly foreign markets. Prices are likely to recover from present low level, in view of overall increasing food prices and due to higher feed and transport costs.