Fraser Watershed Joint Technical Forum January 20, 2010 Super 8 Hotel, Abbotsford BC 9:00am-4:00pm

Transcription

1 1 Fraser Watershed Joint Technical Forum January 20, 2010 Super 8 Hotel, Abbotsford BC 9:00am-4:00pm A. AGENDA 1. Welcome & Introductions All 2. Review Action Items from October Meeting Notes Co-Chairs 3. Fraser Sockeye/Pink DFO: Ann-Marie Huang a. Post-Season Information Presentations i Pre-season Forecast ii. In-Season Summary iii. Catch Summary iv. Escapements v. Management Summary 4. SFU Sockeye Modeling Presentation SFU 5. Lunch 6. Fraser Chinook - DFO a. Post-Season Information Presentations i Pre-season planning ii. Post Season Summary 1. Management 2. Catch Summary 3. Escapements b. JTWG update Co-Chairs c. Pre-season Planning update and discussion: Lead-in for Conservation and Harvest Planning Meeting 7. Fraser Coho (Information may not be complete at time of meeting) a. Post-season Information Presentations i Pre-season Planning B. ATTENDANCE ii. Preliminary Post Season Summary 1. Catch and Exploitation Rate Summary 2. Preliminary Escapements (if available) 8. Fraser Chum (Information may not be complete at time of meeting) a. Post-season information presentations i Pre-season planning ii. Post Season Summary 1. Catch Summary 2. Escapements 9. Other Business 10. Next FWJTF meeting date (March 3rd) and agena discussion Co-chairs: Pete Nicklin (FRAFS), Jamie Scroggie (DFO) Gord Sterritt, Northern Shuswap Tribal Council, FRAFS EC Dave Levy, Northern St at imc Fisheries Brian Toth, Carrier Sekani Tribal Council, Lheidli T enneh Margaret Fletcher, High Bar First Nation Bob McCuaig, High Bar First Nation Tracy Sampson, Nicola Tribal Association Ruth Kenny, Tsawwassen First Nation Jeff Thomas, Snuneymuxw First Nation Les Antone, Kwantlen First Nation Kim Charlie, Chehalis Indian Band

2 2 Dominic Hope, Yale First Nation Michelle Walsh, Secwepemc Fisheries Commission Barry Bennett, Kamloops Indian Band Aaron Gillespie, Secwepemc Fisheries Commission James Archie, Skowkale First Nation Reg Seaweed, Quatsino First Nation Jack Phanes, Tisou-ke First Nation Murray Ned, Sumas First Nation, Sto:lo Tribal Council Roy Hinder, Namgis First Nation Jocelyn Dunstan, Siska Indian Band Mike Jimmie, Sto:lo Nation Dave Moore, Chehalis Indian Band Daniel Billy, Cape Mudge Band Ernie Crey, Sto:lo Tribal Council Mike Staley, FRAFS Greg Wadhams, Namgis First Nation Keith Wilson, Naut sa maut Tribal Council Tony Roberts Jr., Campbell River/Cape Mudge Band Alberta Billy, Cape Mudge Band Aimee Arsenault, FRAFS Richard Bailey, DFO Science Kamloops Dean Allan, DFO Kamloops Merv Mochizuki, DFO Kamloops Ann-Marie Huang, DFO Sheldon Evers, DFO Sean Cox, Simon Fraser University Aaron Springford, Simon Fraser University Cameron Noble, Simon Fraser University C. DISCUSSION 1. Welcome & Introductions All 2. FRSSI Update (Ann-Marie Huang, DFO) Work is currently being done to update the FRSSI model. The goal is to improve the process for setting Fraser sockeye escapement goals. The update will be reviewed by PSARC in May, along with WSP benchmarks. Because of the timing of the review, not all work will be incorporated into the 2010 escapement plan. Looking into incorporating exploitation floors for all management groups, as well as looking at how biological assumptions and management strategies affect escapement. Important dates: March 2010 draft IFMP; Fraser sockeye escapement memo. May 2010 PSARC review. June - Final IFMP. FRSSI consultation dates: January 22 - Forum on Conservation and Harvest Planning for Fraser Salmon. January UFFCA in Prince George. March 29 Forum on Conservation and Harvest Planning for Fraser Salmon. March 25 IHPC. May/June Multi-stakeholder workshop. Discussion: Over-escapement is a rare event in recent years but it can have serious impacts on longer-term productivity of rivers. There are plans to develop technology (smaller tags) to tag smolts to study outmigration survival. First Nations want to be contracted to conduct research in their territories, and create a collaborative environment for generating data.

3 3 ACTION #1 - Dean Allan: Look into how First Nations can access copies of the IFMP in its draft form (password protected on the DFO website). 2. Review Action Items from October Meeting Notes Co-Chairs Action #1 Paul Ryall and FWJTF Co-Chairs: Form a working group to discuss FRSSI work, WSP, etc. (outstanding action item from July 15, 2009). DONE; a working group was not formed, but the workshops will be going ahead in March Action #2 DFO: Get an updated table of preliminary Fraser river chinook FSC catch by area in 2009 relative to FSC targets. First Nations want to see as much detail as possible in catch estimates, particularly breakdowns of Fraser catches. In progress; Jamie will report on catch in his afternoon chinook presentation. Data is preliminary at this point but final information will be posted to the FRAFS website (FSC catch relative to targets). Action #3 Mike Staley: Send a technical memo to the JTWG on the issue of tools used to assess priority access to chinook for First Nations. DONE; this will be part of the chinook review document. Action #4 Aimee Arsenault: Get on Robert Bison's distribution list for steelhead information. DONE; still no information received. ACTION #2 Jamie Scroggie: Provide an update on what's happening with First Nations' engagement in the FRSSI process. 3. Fraser Sockeye/Pink (Ann-Marie Huang, DFO) Sockeye: The FRSSI model uses the sockeye forecast as an input. The forecast methods have been revised, and will be reviewed by PSARC in the spring. In-season estimates were well below the 90p level for all sockeye except Lates (very poor returns). Harrison had much higher abundance than expected, and boosted the numbers for Lates. Migration profiles: Early Stuart peak was early, well below 75p. Early summers showed a long migration period, well below 75p. Summers were well under 75p, showing low numbers for all stocks. Late run migration was well below 75p. Harrison came in well above 50p. They have a different life history (migrate to sea immediately rather than spending a year in fresh water). There were no panel-approved commercial fisheries in Canada, but did have some FSC and test fisheries. Run size modifications created a brief TAC (~54,000 for Summer-run), due to sensitive pma estimates affected by river temperature and summer migration pattern. Directed FSC fisheries were conducted for a short period. Lates held near the river mouth for approximately 5 days before entering the system; this was unusual behavior for an off-cycle year. US fisheries had area restrictions to protect holding Lates. Preliminary post-season catch estimates: There was no recreational or commercial catch. Canadian test fisheries (Qualark and Albion) 2000; FSC marine 9900; FSC Fraser 59k; total Canadian catch 70,900. Test fishing 32k; US catch Total sockeye catch (Canada and US) 107,200. Only 7.5% of the Fraser FSC target was caught by First Nations. Preliminary post-season exploitation estimates: Early Stuart 10%; early summer 9%; Summer 9%; Birkenhead 6%; Lates 3%; Cultus 3%. Run size and escapement: Harrison was the only group to exceed the pre-season forecast. Chilko experienced the lowest recorded marine survival rate for that stock. Total return was the second lowest on record since Expected escapement to the spawning grounds was not the lowest due to extremely reduced fisheries.

4 4 Catch: FSC targets were not met by any First Nations groups. No sockeye retention fisheries for either commercial or recreational groups in either US or Canada. Next steps: Post-season analysis is currently underway. Review of escapement goals (FRSSI) is planned for early sockeye forecast to be reviewed by PSARC in March. Pink: Final in-season estimate was 19.5 million (higher than 50p pre-season forecast). Migration timing was as expected. Preliminary post-season estimate of pink sockeye catch: Canadian catch - 1,558,700; US catch 2,740,000. Total catch 4,315,700. Fraser FSC 1900; marine FSC 10,000; First Nations economic and demonstration fisheries 522,000. Directed fisheries on pinks were limited due to conservation concerns for sockeye. No escapement programs have been done for pinks in recent years. A fry out-migration assessment program is planned for spring Discussion: Alaska post-season and stock id information have not been received yet for This is the second lowest return on this cycle since the 1950s. DFO is not happy with the numbers that returned, but they are satisfied with their efforts to keep exploitation to a minimum. This year's low return may have an effect on fishing opportunities in the future. Recreational numbers show 0 catch for sockeye, but this can't be assured for unmonitored recreational fisheries. Illegal catch and release mortality are not incorporated into the numbers. First Nations want to have traditional knowledge incorporated into fisheries planning. Science is not producing the information we need to sustain the salmon runs. Due to lack of FSC fish, First Nations should be conducting the test fisheries in order to get more fish to First Nations. 4. SFU sockeye modeling presentation (Aaron Springford) SFU Researchers are Aaron Springford, Sean Cox, Cameron Noble, and Brett Zuehike. Recognizing the need for improved tools to assess Fraser River fisheries, Simon Fraser University researchers have been commissioned to work on modeling for Fraser sockeye. Work began in fall 2006 when DFO approached SFU to develop a model capable of examining in-river fisheries situations that are emerging (changing environmental conditions, pre-spawn mortality, flow, temperature, etc.), and how they affect migration and survival. A workshop was held in 2007 to develop a set of questions to focus work on a simulation model. Creating a run reconstruction model for Fraser sockeye, similar to LGL's run reconstruction model for chinook. Currently looking at how test fisheries relate to abundance, and how the simulation model can be used to evaluate options for fisheries openings, implications for different parts of the river, broad management strategies, harvest strategies, monitoring programs, etc. The simulation will not show the reality of the fishery, but could provide a good approximation that could be useful to the management process. Fraser sockeye is a complex species, and provides management challenges. The simulation offers a systematic approach to examine options in the context of changing environmental, biological and management circumstances. A simulation offers a fast and cost-effective alternative to real-world testing. A movement module is used to move hypothetical fish up the river in 10 km increments, and a cumulative effects module approximates the sockeye's accumulating exposure to environmental conditions as they migrate (temperature, flow, etc.). Tagging information is inconsistent from year to year, which makes it difficult to compare data across years. Missing information is filled in by looking to data within that run timing group to make estimates.

5 5 Next steps will include building in-season assessment and performance modules. Discussion: The model is only looking at stream type fish right now, but will eventually incorporate ocean types. The goal is to cover all CUs. There have been discussions about getting better science for sockeye management. This project is a good innovative approach. It was expressed that we look forward to implementing this in the Fraser river, and using it to look at the feasibility of First Nations economic fisheries. Need to hold a workshop in order to get First Nations involved in the development of this tool. ACTION #3 - Jamie Scroggie - Contact LGL about including a piece about tag-induced mortality in their presentation at the next FWJTF meeting. 5. Lunch 6. Fraser Chinook (Jamie Scroggie, DFO) Outlook status: Fraser spring 4 2-1; Fraser spring ; Fraser summer 5 2-1; Fraser summer 4 1-4; Fraser fall Escapement trends: High escapements early on. 4 1 group trending upward, with spring 4 2 s and 5 2 s showing low escapement. Management objectives in IFMP: Early timed chinook implement management actions to reduce exploitation by 50% relative to the period (revisions will be considered in April as part of the 2009 post-season review). Spring and summer Fraser chinook ensure spawner abundance does not decline below the base period level of 30,050. The Albion test fishery helps predict returns. 25% exploitation on 40,000 chinook would result in 30,000 spawners. Commercial and recreational fisheries are open if returns are above 40,000, with additional FSC opportunities. With returns below 40,000, commercial and recreational fisheries are reduced and FSC fishing is similar to management actions were similar to Preliminary post-season assessments of Early Timed Chinook in 2008 showed a reduction of 35%, not 50% as planned. Additional actions were taken in 2009, with further reductions in commercial and recreational fisheries, and later start dates and reduced communal fishing times for FSC fisheries. Escapement summary: All Interior early spring returns were poor, although some improved slightly over Escapements reached critical conservation levels for spring 4 2 s. Nicola escapement was <500, and 4 2 aggregate escapement averaged only 27% of brood and only 9% of smsy. Spring 5 2 s averaged 85% of brood, and 34% of smsy. Summer 5 2 returns were also poor with 35% of brood and 48% of smsy. Summer 4 1 returns (late South Thompson) were strong with 200% of brood and 57% of smsy. Lower Fraser spring returns improved (e.g. 625 adult birkenhead). Lower Fraser summer and fall returns modest (very few 3 yr olds); Harrison 72,000 adults; Chilliwack 15,000 adults. Biggest jack return ever for the Harrison (2 yr olds). Spawner abundance: Declines continued for 4 2 s. 5 2 s have increased in the last 2 years, but declined relative to brood. Ocean types are doing much better, with an increasing trend for summer 4 1 s. Harrison variable but spawners declining over the past 5 years. Preliminary Fraser chinook catch: Total Fraser was just under 63,000. Commercial catch of 3713 is mostly attributed to the test fishery. FSC = 25,834 lower Fraser, 2707 interior. FN economic/demo fisheries just over Recreational catch almost 25,000 (lower Fraser and interior combined). Post-season assessment of management actions: Working on finalizing the 2008 postseason document. A document has been put together by the JTWG outlining various limitations and assumptions that went into the post-season review process. Currently discussing changes for the 2009 post-season review, e.g. changing chinook aggregates.

6 6 Management actions in 2009 will not be assessed until spring 2010, plans adjusted for 2011 fisheries (due to data lag). JTWG Update (Pete Nicklin): The joint technical working group (JTWG) was formed in spring 2009 as a subgroup of the FWJTF. It has allowed First Nations and DFO to share biological and technical information, and discuss management issues in greater detail. This group has been focusing on Fraser chinook, and was formed in response to discussions in 2008 about conservation measures for early timed chinook. The first meetings focused on DFO's draft 2008 early timed chinook review document, and the technical information and methods used to evaluate management actions. A high level of precision is required to measure relative exploitation changes in FSC, commercial and recreational fisheries, as these measures are used to evaluate priority access; fishing openings are assigned on a priority basis, which requires higher level technical work than just evaluating the presence and absence of fish in those fisheries. Result of JTWG work: section on limitations and assumptions to be included in the next version of the early timed chinook report; data corrections to analysis; the method DFO used for evaluating the 2008 early timed chinook season will be discontinued. Additional discussion focused on changing the managerial constructs for chinook to reflect Chinook Technical Committee Management Unitss (e.g. 4 2 s, spring 5 2 s, summer 5 2 s, summer 4 1 s, etc.). The JTWG has offered a significant improvement in data sharing and opportunities for discussing important issues around chinook, but improvement is still needed. It has significantly improved preparation for complex management discussions. It serves as an example of one of the necessary components of co-management. Looking at the possibity of doing a joint science paper together (First Nations and DFO). Tools have not kept up with demand. We are in a data limited environment with respect to chinook management, with ambitious conservation and management goals planning: DFO's outlook for 5 2 s and 4 2 s is poor. Issues look very similar to Next steps: First Nations and DFO will outline a process for chinook management discussions, and will use technical information to inform the chinook management process. Fraser Chinook Update (Richard Bailey, DFO): In the original PST there were 2 chinook stock groupings, Fraser early and Fraser late. The Fraser early group was broken down into 4 groups to better represent population dynamics and fishery distribution. DFO now manages to 5 stock groupings: spring 4 2, spring 5 2, summer 5 2, summer 4 1, and Fraser late (Harrison natural and Chilliwack hatchery). Reviewed background information on stock groupings (life history, migration routes, timing, etc.). Stream type spawner abundance: Management actions in 1980 reduced commercial impacts on chinook. 5 year old stocks rebuilt but 4 2 s did not recover; declines for 4 2 s continue for Increased spawners for 5 2 s in the last 2 years, but declines relative to parental generation. Ocean type spawner abundance: Harrison chinook depend on favorable ocean conditions early in life; a very poor marine regime has impacted this stock. Harrison spawner abundance has been variable, but declining over the last 5 years. Status indicators: Spawner-recruit relationships can be used to estimate spawning ground capacity and sustainable exploitation rates; however, Fraser chinook data is limited and spawner-recruit data and analysis are not available for most stocks. For data limited populations, the chinook salmon habitat capacity model can be used to estimate stock productivity and other key population dynamic variables. The model calculates spawners at maximum sustainable yield (smsy), which gives an ideal picture of numbers that should be on the spawning grounds to maximize productivity.

7 7 Spawning escapements in 2009 are at an extreme crisis level (4 2 chinook went to sea in 2007, same ocean conditions as disappearing sockeye from 2009). Spring 4 2 s escapements were only 4% smsy, spring 5 2 s 34% smsy, summer 5 2 s 48% smsy, summer 4 1 s 57% smsy. Summer 4 1 s were close to the brood year escapement, but still below where they should be. Stock productivity: In the 1990s had a period of 4-5 recruits per spawner. Declines in ocean productivity resulted in recruits per spawner falling below the replacement line, with significant declines in recent years. For the last 4 ocean entries, populations would have declined even with no fishing. However, a 40% exploitation rate was still applied to chinook. Average recruits per spawner in the last 4 years has been 0.62 for 4 2 s and 0.64 for 5 2 s. A rate of 1.67 recruits per spawner is needed to sustain 40% exploitation expectations: spring 4 2 s - outlook status 1, stock of concern; spring 5 2 s - outook status 1, stock of concern; summer run 5 2 s - outlook status 1 stock of concern; summer 4 1 s, outlook status 3/4, near target/abundant (last year = 3); Fraser late - outlook status 2, low (last year =2). The majority of spring timed Fraser chinook appear to be going to FSC fisheries, but a significant portion are going to recreational and commercial fisheries. This raises concerns about priority access for First Nations. Plans to finalize the 2008 early timed chinook post-season review (report schedule means 2 year lag for applying any new management actions). Future reviews will use PST aggregates. Reviewed planning priorities and timeline for Fraser Coho The IFMP objective for coho is to limit exploitation to 3% or less in Canada, and the US limits exploitation to 10% (on average 6-7% exploitation overall). Very low marine survival has been forecasted for lower Fraser coho, 1.2% for wild and 0.7% for hatchery stocks (continuation of very low survival rates observed over the past decade). Interior Fraser (Thompson) coho abundance for 2009 was estimated to be 17,405 (20% of mean abundance). This represents an increase over the brood abundance (~ brood year had the lowest return on record). Estimated 2009 exploitation rate in Canada was 2.2% (0.49% commercial, 0.52% recreational, 0.47% test fishery, 0.72% First Nations). Preliminary catch estimates: Lower Fraser 8458 (FSC 298, economic/demo fisheries 643, recreational 7517), interior 6 (FSC), total A creel report will be released from lower Fraser stock assessment detailing the recreational catch (mark selective, targeting hatchery fish). Interior Fraser coho preliminary escapement estimate is 20-25,000 (lower benchmark is 23,000). Lower Fraser escapement assessment is still underway. 8. Fraser Chum No quantitative forecasts are prepared for chum, but a stock outlook is provided annually. The stock status outlook was 3 (near target). Brood year (2005) escapement was around 60% of the time series average of 2.1 million. Escapement has trended down over the last 10 years. Chum fisheries are largely constrained by management actions for protecting coho and steelhead. Various First Nations FSC and economic fishing openings were provided during October and November. Mainstem recreational chum fisheries are open year round, with creel programs in place May to October. Major tributaries open later in the year. Area E had only one 24 hour commercial opening on October 27. It was expected that chum would exceed the spawning requirements (800,000) to provide opportunities for FSC, recreational and commercial fisheries. Albion showed an

8 8 estimated return of million, but the preliminary observations from people on the grounds are indicating returns much less (~200,000). The brood year was around 750,000 so a more abundant return was expected. It is still early so we will have to wait for post season escapement estimates chum spawning escapements are not yet available. Discussion: The escapement goal of 600,000 does not come close to filling up the available spawning grounds in the Harrison; it can accommodate a million fish. This year Albion showed a high abundance of chum, but they couldn't be found in Harrison or Chilliwack. A chum technical committee might help to look at these issues more closely, refine the assessment strategies, etc. Funding has been approved through Chehalis to research modeling on chum benchmarks. More technical support is needed to develop these projects. We typically look at larger systems, but there are hundreds of streams and tributaries that contain chum. They are important to biodiversity on the Fraser, and we need a strategy for monitoring these systems. ACTION #4 - Marla Maxwell and Joe Tadey: Create a feedback loop that keeps the FWJTF up to date on issues relating to chum salmon. 9. Other Business 10. Next FWJTF meeting date (March 3/10) and agenda discussion The next FWJTF meeting will be held in Kamloops. The theme will be Count on Salmon, which will focus on stock assessment programs and projects in the watershed. Could be a multi-day meeting. D. ACTION ITEMS ACTION #1 - Dean Allan: Look into how First Nations can access copies of the IFMP in its draft form (it is password protected on the DFO website). ACTION #2 - Jamie Scroggie: Provide an update on what's happening in terms of First Nations' engagement with the FRSSI process. ACTION #3 - Jamie Scroggie - Contact LGL about including a piece about tag-induced mortality in their presentation at the next FWJTF meeting. ACTION #4 - Marla Maxwell and Joe Tadey: Create a feedback loop that keeps the FWJTF up to date on issues relating to chum salmon